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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

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    Karl Haushofer


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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Mar 12, 2021 5:59 pm

    Uncle Sam will be smiling while watching Eastern Slavs again kill each other.

    The US will win regardless what happens.

    Ukraine beats the rebels and takes Donbass. Good, that would be a defeat for Russia and Putin.

    Ukraine fails and loses. Well, the media and politicians would blame Russia for interfering and Nord Stream 2 would be cancelled.

    The most important thing for the US is to get Ukraine to attack. Any result after that would be more or less good for them. And bonus for them would be to see Eastern Slavic blood being spilled again. Nothing they love more than that.
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    Post  kvs Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:47 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Uncle Sam will be smiling while watching Eastern Slavs again kill each other.

    The US will win regardless what happens.

    Ukraine beats the rebels and takes Donbass. Good, that would be a defeat for Russia and Putin.

    Ukraine fails and loses. Well, the media and politicians would blame Russia for interfering and Nord Stream 2 would be cancelled.

    The most important thing for the US is to get Ukraine to attack. Any result after that would be more or less good for them. And bonus for them would be to see Eastern Slavic blood being spilled again. Nothing they love more than that.

    Keep masturbating, loser.

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    nero


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    Post  nero Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:52 pm

    There's been at least a few dozen train convoys heading towards the DNR, carrying T-72's, T-64's, artillery, trucks and other military equipment. It is very likely that the offensive is going to start sometime next week or at the end of March - weather permitting. It is worthy to note that the Northern and Southern military districts of Russia have started command exercises. I think it is a pretense to have everyone 'around' if it is going to be needed.

    The biggest loser from this offensive is going to be Europe. It is actually hilarious how bad they are at throwing their political weight around. The Germans canceling NS2 would hurt them, not Russia. I think part of the reason why Merkel was forced to retire was how she handled NS2 to begin with.

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    The_Observer
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    Post  The_Observer Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:05 pm

    franco wrote:Latest Ukrainian military numbers from the IISS:
    Air Force 45,000 - 125 combat aircraft; 75 armed helicopters; 70 Buk-M1 SAM; 250 S-300P/PS/PT SAM

    Quick question on Ukraine SAM systems: S-300 and Buk systems.
    Did Ukraine manufacture missiles for these, or are they still using a 30+ yr old soviet stockpile? if it's the latter, then I wonder how they manage to keep these missiles functional after so long.

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    VARGR198
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    Post  VARGR198 Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:11 pm

    Ukrainian MiG-29 Damaged After Drunk Officer Rams Car into Jet

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:28 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Uncle Sam will be smiling while watching Eastern Slavs again kill each other.

    The US will win regardless what happens.

    Ukraine beats the rebels and takes Donbass. Good, that would be a defeat for Russia and Putin.

    Ukraine fails and loses. Well, the media and politicians would blame Russia for interfering and Nord Stream 2 would be cancelled.

    The most important thing for the US is to get Ukraine to attack. Any result after that would be more or less good for them. And bonus for them would be to see Eastern Slavic blood being spilled again. Nothing they love more than that.


    What about Ukraine too much confident, attacks and provoke russian military. Russia takes all Ukraine. Put Iskanders and S-400 at EU and get ukrainian shipyard and other companies that increase their production of ships, planes, tanks and missiles. Then they start exporting more civilian and military stuff.

    US that "protects" ukraine won't protect them which is a signal for China that they won't move for Taiwan so China attacks Taiwan and also the other islands they are looking for.

    It is known that NATO wasn't going to help Turkey against Russia after the su-24 downing. Thry won't move a finger to help Ukraine.
    franco
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    Post  franco Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:35 pm

    The_Observer wrote:
    franco wrote:Latest Ukrainian military numbers from the IISS:
    Air Force 45,000 - 125 combat aircraft; 75 armed helicopters; 70 Buk-M1 SAM; 250 S-300P/PS/PT SAM

    Quick question on Ukraine SAM systems: S-300 and Buk systems.
    Did Ukraine manufacture missiles for these, or are they still using a 30+ yr old soviet stockpile? if it's the latter, then I wonder how they manage to keep these missiles functional after so long.

    USSR era weapons. They did have a thriving defense industry at one time so they would have the ability to maintain them. Pretty much all of their equipment would be this way. Not much new.

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:39 pm

    Russia will never retake "Ukraine", it could retake the regions of Donetsk, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa...

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:43 pm

    Isos wrote:
    What about Ukraine too much confident, attacks and provoke russian military. Russia takes all Ukraine. Put Iskanders and S-400 at EU and get ukrainian shipyard and other companies that increase their production of ships, planes, tanks and missiles. Then they start exporting more civilian and military stuff.

    US that "protects" ukraine won't protect them which is a signal for China that they won't move for Taiwan so China attacks Taiwan and also the other islands they are looking for.
    There is no reason for Russia to take more than the two oblasts, why would they? For nothing else than the message to Europe saying we could but we didn't so you have no need to worry about us attacking you, especially if they withdraw leaving it to the LNDR locals to look after.

    Taiwan is very different. For a start there is a treaty and second China is an economic threat.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:47 pm

    Russia isn't going to take all of Ukraine, AT BEST they would take the Eastern sides that lean pro-Russia, the western side is heavy EU and Anti-Russian
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:51 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    What about Ukraine too much confident, attacks and provoke russian military. Russia takes all Ukraine. Put Iskanders and S-400 at EU and get ukrainian shipyard and other companies that increase their production of ships, planes, tanks and missiles. Then they start exporting more civilian and military stuff.

    US that "protects" ukraine won't protect them which is a signal for China that they won't move for Taiwan so China attacks Taiwan and also the other islands they are looking for.
    There is no reason for Russia to take more than the two oblasts, why would they? For nothing else than the message to Europe saying we could but we didn't so you have no need to worry about us attacking you, especially if they withdraw leaving it to the LNDR locals to look after.

    Taiwan is very different. For a start there is a treaty and second China is an economic threat.

    incorrect with Taiwan John, that treaty says. We can if we want not that we have to, additional there are no legal documents in the US stating Taiwan is a sovereign nation. Far as we are concerned legally Taiwan is part of China.

    Taiwan will eventually be taken over its not a matter of if but when and how much Taiwan will make China pay for it with losses.

    I also severely doubt Biden would go to war over Taiwan, there aren't even any plans for this.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:11 pm

    Hole wrote:Russia will never retake "Ukraine", it could retake the regions of Donetsk, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa...

    It was hust a stupid "what if" to show him that there are cases where US won't always win like he says.
    franco
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    Post  franco Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:53 pm

    Hole wrote:Russia will never retake "Ukraine", it could retake the regions of Donetsk, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa...

    Dnieper River looks like a nice border Wink thumbsup

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    franco
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    Post  franco Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:24 pm

    Ukraine seeks to justify its future offensive against the Donbass with a bogus “peace plan” and ultimatum

    As Ukraine’s preparations for an offensive against the Donbass become more and more evident, Kiev is now trying to justify its future blatant and major violation of the Minsk agreements, presenting it as the necessary response in case of Russia’s refusal of its new “peace plan”, in blackmail and ultimatum mode (basically either you accept our conditions or we bring out the cannons).

    Ukraine’s “peace plan” for the Donbass

    The first person to pull Ukraine’s “peace plan” for the Donbass out of his hat was Andrey Yermak, the chief of staff of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
    Indeed, Yermak said in an online discussion about the Donbass war that Ukraine has finalised a plan for a peaceful settlement of the conflict, proposed by France and Germany, and is waiting for Russia to approve it (except that once again it is not Moscow that Kiev has to negotiate with, but the DPR and the LPR, but never mind).

    “Today there is a concrete plan for a peaceful settlement on the table, proposed by Germany and France, finalised by Ukraine, which in our opinion meets the spirit of the Minsk agreements, and is in line with the norms of international law…“, said Yermak.

    According to him, this is a “very strong measure” proposed by Germany and France. He expressed hope that the plan would become “the subject of a strong discussion in a week or two” during a video conference at the Normandy Format.

    The first problem is that Ukraine’s assessment of what is and is not in line with the Minsk agreements is often far from reality. As a reminder, Kiev claims that its roadmap plan, which violates the Minsk agreements by 75%, is in line with them! And since the content of the plan has not been communicated, it is impossible to verify Yermak’s claims.

    This is the second and biggest problem: nobody knows about this famous “peace plan” for the Donbass proposed by Ukraine, and nobody has seen such a plan being proposed by France or Germany!

    From Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, to the LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic) representative in the trilateral contact group, Rodion Miroshnik, and the political scientist Vladimir Zharikhin, no one knows about this “peace plan” or has seen a single line of it!

    Rodion Miroshnik stated that “no new document has been presented to the [trilateral] contact group“. For him, the only possibility is that such a document was discussed at the level of the Normandy Format’s political advisors, but since the last six meetings of the trilateral contact group have yielded nothing “it is unlikely to have attracted serious attention”.

    “If new agreed options are found in the Normandy Format, these recommendations should be sent to the contact group to reach final agreements between the parties to the conflict – Donbass and Kiev. So far, unfortunately, there are no agreed plans or concluded agreements,” the LPR representative said.

    Except that since Peskov has announced that he is not aware of any “peace plan” for the Donbass from Ukraine, the probability that an agreement has been reached at the level of the Normandy Format political advisors is close to zero. If such an agreement had been reached, Russia would know about it!

    Not to mention France and Germany, which should have publicly announced the development of such a plan. But there is nothing on this side either, as Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy head of the CIS countries Institute, pointed out.

    “I have not heard of any plan proposed by Germany and France. They have not publicly announced this plan. Zelensky is clearly running a domestic political campaign for a national audience, but at the same time he is embarrassing the leaders of other countries who are not aware of this plan. In other words, this is another episode of ‘Servant of the People’, not real politics. This is his fantasy,” said Zharikhin.

    “Where is this plan of Germany and France? Is it published? No. Has it been announced by the German and French leaders? No. Does it even exist? And what did Zelensky actually finalise? If it has not been published or announced, was it secretly drawn up? And most importantly, without one of the main members of the Normandy Format – Russia? In my opinion, this is a Zelensky fantasy and a game for an internal audience,” the expert noted.

    Zharikhin recalled that Zelensky’s rating is down because of his failure to implement his promise to end the Donbass war: “These are convulsive attempts to portray something that most likely does not really exist“. At the same time, he expressed hope that Paris and Berlin were not secretly working out a plan to impose it on Russia.

    Kiev’s ultimatum


    If Zharikhin fears an attempt to impose a plan on Russia by force, it is because the words of Ukrainian officials sound more like ultimatums than negotiations.

    Indeed, after Yermak’s statement, it was Leonid Kravchuk who brought Ukraine’s “peace plan” for the Donbass on the table, but this time it is announced that Kiev will propose this plan for consideration by the trilateral contact group, and that if it is not accepted, more active resistance will begin. But Kravchuk makes it clear that this will be a defence, not an attack.

    “We know that troops are being massively sent [to the DPR and LPR sides – Editor’s note], that training and exercises are taking place. But the Ukrainian army is not the same as it was five years ago – we are ready to defend our land,” he said.

    Well, we’re in the wrong direction right from the start, because in fact it’s on the Ukrainian side that we see a clear accumulation of troops and heavy weaponry on the front line. Kiev is not even hiding it, since videos of trains loaded with military equipment are circulating everywhere on the internet! There is nothing like this on the DPR and LPR side, as the OSCE data shows.

    Kravchuk then added that Ukraine “will never attack first”, but that “if the other side refuses [the peace plan – editor’s note], we will have only one thing left to do: defend ourselves”.

    He stressed that the country cannot ignore threats, and that it will respond “in a mirror way”, “but without provoking actions dangerous to people’s lives”.

    This is where the hypocrisy hits the bottom. Because you need to have bad faith to claim that Ukraine will never attack first and that it will not provoke actions dangerous for people’s lives, when it is the Ukrainian army that has been violating the ceasefire massively for months, and that deliberately shoots at civilian houses in the DPR!

    In fact, Kravchuk’s statement is a lamentable attempt by Ukraine to justify in advance its future offensive by presenting it as a “defence” motivated by the fact that Russia will refuse its “peace plan” for the Donbass, which in reality is certainly nothing more than the sum of Kiev’s already expressed fantasies, all of which are contrary to the Minsk agreements.

    Such a method is nothing more and nothing less than an ultimatum from Ukraine and an attempt to impose its version of the settlement of the Donbass conflict through blackmail, as DPR Foreign Minister Natalia Nikonorova said.

    “Instead of finally starting to work substantially and conscientiously in the peace process to resolve the Donbass conflict, Ukrainian representatives have decided to directly blackmail the republics. The head of the Ukrainian delegation in Minsk claims that Kiev will propose some kind of “peace plan” in the trilateral contact group. A peace plan that we are hearing about for the first time. At the same time, it is very revealing that Kravchuk openly says: if the Donbass does not accept this ‘peace plan’, we will be offered a military scenario – in other words, the Ukrainian delegation is saying directly that it is more interesting in the contact group not to negotiate but to issue ultimatums,” the minister said.

    Natalia Nikonorova recalled that this is not the first “peace plan” mentioned by the Ukrainian authorities, and that in the six years of existence of the Minsk agreements, every conceivable nonsense has already been proposed by Ukrainian officials, including the famous “roadmap” which violates the Minsk agreements by 75%, demanding that the DPR and the LPR disarm, let in the Ukrainian army, and “only then will Kiev consider whether it will implement its commitments under the package of measures“.

    “We therefore have no doubt that the “peace scenario” announced by Mr Kravchuk is another attempt by Ukraine to avoid implementing the Minsk agreements. But it is precisely in these that the only possible path to peace lies. And if Kiev really wants to return to that peace, there is no need to invent a way to ‘modernise’ the Minsk agreements, to try to replace them with new ‘scenarios’ or to replace the special status of the Donbass clearly defined in the package of measures with laws on internment, transitional justice, collaborationism and other terms detached from reality“, the Minister added.

    Ms Nikonorova also pointed out the inconsistencies between the words of Ukrainian officials and reality, and called on Ukraine to finally define the coordination mechanism foreseen in the additional ceasefire control measures.

    “Ukraine simply needs to start working with us in a full and coordinated way to implement the agreements reached. And above all, to agree on a new package of measures to strengthen the ceasefire regime and also to establish direct cooperation between the JCCC of Ukraine, the DPR JCCC and the LPR JCCC. Otherwise, we find ourselves in a paradoxical situation: Kravchuk speaks, in his long statements in the media, of Ukraine’s desire for peace, while in reality the armed forces of this country continue to shell residential areas of the Donbass, including with weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements, continue to advance their fortifications towards us and continue to place their weapons in inhabited areas, knowing full well that we are not shooting at civilians. At the same time, all our proposals to clarify and update measures to strengthen the ceasefire regime, in particular the coordination mechanism, are ignored by Kiev without any intelligible argument,” said the minister and DPR representative in the trilateral contact group.

    Natalia Nikonorova concluded by denouncing Ukraine’s blackmail of the DPR and LPR, and reminding Leonid Kravchuk that his role is to negotiate, not to restart the war.

    “The Ukrainian representatives are engaging in public blackmail, announcing their supposedly peaceful initiatives but in reality threatening war. However, we remind Mr Kravchuk that his task is to ensure the effective implementation of the Minsk agreements agreed with the Donbass representatives and not to provoke a resumption of the ‘hot’ phase of the conflict,” she concluded.

    If Ukraine was hoping to bend Russia, the DPR and the LPR with its threats and blackmail attempts, it has failed. As for Kiev’s lamentable attempts to justify a future offensive in the Donbass via this ultimatum to the “peace plan”, the manoeuvre is so crude and pitiful that there is no need to dwell on it any further.

    Christelle Néant

    http://www.donbass-insider.com/2021/03/11/ukraine-seeks-to-justify-its-future-offensive-against-the-donbass-with-a-bogus-peace-plan-and-ultimatum/

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    VARGR198
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    Post  VARGR198 Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:33 am

    Ukraine Seizes Aircraft Maker to Prevent Chinese Takeover

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    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:39 am

    Latest from Martyanov, interestingly along the same lines exposed before: this time over Russia does not need to hide anywhere and can impose a very high price to the West:

    They May Try Again.

    Everybody writes about it and the signs are there--Ukraine is trying to attack Donbass, again. As Patrick Armstrong notes today:

       The team that gave us the Ukraine catastrophe is back in Washington, a US general is in Ukraine and heavy equipment is moving. A resumption of fighting would suit many in Kiev, Washington and NATO. But Moscow is not asleep and the Donbass defenders are prepared. I would expect, along with supplies, Moscow to make discreet but observable preparations. If that doesn’t stop an attack, Moscow has the long-range weapons to interdict assembly areas and routes and pretend deniability. If that doesn’t work, I would expect a reprise of 2008, only faster. What’s the West going to do in the face of a fait accompli? Shout more? Sanctions? A crushing defeat will produce reverberations in Kiev: very few of the Ukrainian forces in Crimea stayed loyal to Kiev and Zelensky was elected on a promise of making things better, not worse. A week should tell us which it is.

    It is exactly the same team of one trick ponies in D.C. who assured that in the long run Donbass will join Russia's as her administrative region and that, this time, Russia may appear in person and this will "reverberations" in Kiev which will accelerate already proceeding apace the process of the statehood failure in Ukraine. Three factors define West's actions as of now:

    1. Western Europe wants to "unload" this shithole of a country it created on Russia. Russians do not want to pay for this banana locality, so the only way to "coerce" Russians is make sure they defeat Ukraine. OK. Russian Armed Forces can wipe out Ukrainian Army in several days but, as Patrick Armstrong correctly observes, the Georgian scenario could be in store--Russia will demolish Ukraine's military and will bulldoze the remnants of Ukrainian statehood to the West.  

    2. For the United States which increasingly reminds of Ukraine, just on a much larger scale, the factor of visceral Russo-phobia and desire to engage Russia's resources in any way in Ukraine--personal military encounter with Russia means many bad things for the United States and its military, hence proxies--should not be discounted. Plus, in a face of an economic catastrophe the Biden Administration needs some distraction--I told you, one trick ponies.

    3. Both the so called President Zelensky, who is a clown (literally) by his background and a bunch of people in his "Administration", controlled from the US Embassy in Kiev, are not people who actually have any grasp of the reality and act on pure neurotic instincts in their constant fight for a position at the ever shrinking trough of a disintegrating Ukrainian economy. So, Zelensky may decide to commit a political (and who knows which one additionaly) suicide and commence operations in Donbass seeing them as the only exit he has from a clusterfuck which Ukraine and its bosses from EU and US created in the midst of Europe.

    Too bad, as they say. This time Kremlin has one major factor playing for it, which was not the case in 2014--by different estimates, majority of Russians had it with Ukrainians. No, not with Ukraine, but namely Ukrainians as people. Ukrainians have got what they wanted when stating for the last seven years to Russian faces "We will never be brothers" (in Russian). Overwhelming majority of Russians today say--OK. In fact, these are the Russians now who do not want to be "brothers" and will have no compunction about demolishing, if it comes to this, Ukrainian Army. In 2014-15, there were still huge reservations on Russia's part in this regard, today--the hell with it. As is the hell with the EU and the United States. But I am sure if it comes to it Russia will start with high profile, but less costly in terms of personnel, strikes on whatever is left of Ukie Air Force and its bases, it will destroy Ukie Air Defence and then will burn all tanks, APCs and artillery at the line of contact.

    So, whatever Russia will do, ranging from behind the scene support for LDNR to the outright annihilation of Kiev regime, she has options and escalation dominance, Kiev does not. If EU stops Nord Stream-2 as a result of the United States pressure and the use of Donbass conflagration as means of coercing Europeans to commit energy suicide, as was stated not for once, for Russia the stoppage of the Nord Stream-2 is merely a bump in the road. As latest events in Russian-Chinese relations indicate, Russia finally reoriented herself economically to the East and it seems actual Russian-Chinese alliance is de facto in existence now.  

       Russia and China have signed an agreement to build an international lunar space station that will be “open to all interested countries”, Beijing’s space agency announced on Tuesday.The two countries “will use their accumulated experience in space science, research and development as well as the use of space equipment and space technology to jointly develop a road map for the construction of an international lunar scientific research station (ILRS),” China National Space Administration said in a statement.Though no timeline is accorded to the project, the lunar science station is being envisioned as a “complex of experimental and research facilities created on the surface and/or in orbit of the moon,” Russia’s Roscosmos space agency was quoted as saying by CNN.

    Those European nations, who would want to join any major Eurasian economic and science projects--they will be welcomed and the selection process already started.

       An Italian-Swiss pharmaceutical company has agreed to produce Russia's Sputnik V vaccine in Italy, the first such deal in the European Union, a trade body said Tuesday. "The vaccine will be produced from July 2021 in (pharma company) Adienne factories in Lombardy," northern Italy, a spokesman for the Italian-Russian Chamber of Commerce, Stefano Maggi, told AFP. "Ten million doses will be produced between July 1 and January 1, 2022," he added, describing it as the "first agreement on the European level for the production on EU territory of the Sputnik vaccine".

    You see how easy it is? No coercion, no imposing oneself, as it was with Russia in 1980s through early 2000s. Nope, just keep the door open wide enough for people to see the opening and if they will step in is entirely up to them. It is so easy to live when you don't owe anything to anyone and you don't need anything from anyone.    

    http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/03/they-may-try-again.html

    It is useless to roll the tanks to Kiev or claim all of the Ukraine or things like that, but self declared Republics in Donbass + Odessa would not be unthinkable IMHO. If the West wants to screw Russia over NS2 and long term energy supplies to Europe, Russia may well serve themselves in advance by turning Ukraine into an unusable corpse of a country, if things get really bad why not to remove their access to the Black Sea altogether? The more they force the aggression towards Russia, the more excuses they give them to recover from the historical treasons of the commie century, if they want Russia to recover 100 years in one small campaign instead of waiting decades and decades, I am sure there are a lot of people in Moscow perfectly aware of their strategic long terms interests in their old native lands in Novorussia and will gladly accept the present. They want to play tough, let's see what their escalation options are...

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    Post  Backman Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:34 am

    VARGR198 wrote:Ukraine Seizes Aircraft Maker to Prevent Chinese Takeover

    This action came right from the US state dept. John Bolton mentioned this company specifically in 2019 when he was in power.

    This is kind of a good thing though isn't it ? A Chinese takeover wouldn't have been good for Russia. Now the company is left to starve with no money. China has no in. Russia or Belarus who could asset strip the company from the inside.

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:07 pm

    LMFS wrote:It is useless to roll the tanks to Kiev or claim all of the Ukraine or things like that, but self declared Republics in Donbass + Odessa would not be unthinkable IMHO. If the West wants to screw Russia over NS2 and long term energy supplies to Europe, Russia may well serve themselves in advance by turning Ukraine into an unusable corpse of a country, if things get really bad why not to remove their access to the Black Sea altogether? The more they force the aggression towards Russia, the more excuses they give them to recover from the historical treasons of the commie century, if they want Russia to recover 100 years in one small campaign instead of waiting decades and decades, I am sure there are a lot of people in Moscow perfectly aware of their strategic long terms interests in their old native lands in Novorussia and will gladly accept the present. They want to play tough, let's see what their escalation options are...
    Yes removing the access to the sea would also make the rest of the country much less interesting for the west.... it would become a much worse functioning bielorussia...

    The fact that Kerch, Odessa and Nikolaev oblasts are less antirussian than the rest of the country (and there, as far as I understood, also most of the younger generation still prefer to speak in Russian)  probably helps.

    However Dnepropetrovsk oblast (historical centre of Novorossia and in the path between Donetsk and the Dnepr  river) has been ukrainazed much more. Only the older generation prefer to use Russian and most of the younger inhabitants (except a few exception), while knowing Russian prefer to use Ukrainian in their day to day lives...
    Furthermore Dnepropetrovsk was also the centre of the antirussian clans and politicians in the recent past.

    Anyway, if at least a majority of the people in the southern oblasts would be up to rebel to current Ukrainian authorities,  maybe taking advantages of the turmoil after a failed ukrainian attack to the donbass, Russia could try and push for a sort of Abkhazian scenario, turning those oblasts west of Donbass and until Transnistria in a sort of semi-independent protectorate...

    If not, well Russia can wait and just allow the donbass to rejoin the motherland.  The only issue there is that Donetsk oblast has no defensible geographical borders from the west  (Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhe oblasts)....

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  franco Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:38 pm

    Ukrainian Wehrmacht

    The Maidan swindlers who seized power in 2014 as a result of a coup d'etat quickly became convinced that Ukraine had practically no combat-ready armed forces.

    The crisis

    In order to quickly replenish the army ranks and stimulate regular military personnel and ordinary Ukrainians to kill their fellow citizens, the Bandera regime urgently adopted a whole package of laws that promised the "knights" numerous benefits.

    With such tempting prospects, the war for many Ukrainians has become a good alternative to living in civilian life or slave labor in Poland. They enthusiastically swallowed the bait of "one thousand hryvnia a day" and went to kill the "separatists". Anticipating future profits, wives and mothers often equipped their husbands and sons as punishers at their own expense, and then escorted them to the Eastern Front.

    During the 2014 campaign, the Ukrainian army proved to be poorly trained and undisciplined. She simply did not know how to fight: how to establish roadblocks, how to protect communications, how to calculate enemy gunners in the rear. All of her successes in capturing Slavyansk, Lisichansk, Debaltsevo, Shakhtersk, Saur-Mogila were achieved through a significant superiority in forces and means with a high level of their own losses.

    Yes, there were also individual manifestations of competent planning, backed up by a certain courage and perseverance in battles. But they got lost against the background of the shameful defeats of the Ukrainian troops near Donetsk, Lugansk and Ilovaisk. In numerous cauldrons of August 2014, thousands of ukropatriots disappeared or became disabled.

    By the winter of 2015, the situation had changed somewhat.

    The battles for the Donetsk airport and Debaltseve took place for the Donbass corps of the People's Militia in much more difficult conditions. The increased training of Ukrainian gunners and tankers was noted. The enemy infantry began to show greater tenacity in battles. And yet the Russian soldiers turned out to be stronger - the Donetsk airport and Debaltseve were taken, which dealt a severe psychological and informational blow to the Bandera regime.

    By the spring of 2015, the crisis in the Armed Forces of Ukraine was overcome.

    The Ukrainians easily absorbed the latest stories about how their army fought with dignity against the superior forces of the "Russian aggressor" and was able to inflict such losses on him that forced Putin to sit down at the negotiating table in Minsk. This means that Russia is not capable of a military defeat of Ukraine, Western sanctions are in effect, the Russian economy

    It is necessary to patiently wait for the collapse of Russia to begin in order to return Donbass and Crimea with one blow. And if it works out, then the Kuban.

    The established truce allowed the Bandera regime to resume military construction in a fairly calm atmosphere. First of all, order was restored in the field of command and control. The atamanschina was over - the commanders of the most violent battalions were crushed by the press of criminal cases or put on a deputy trough in the Verkhovna Rada. Ordinary militants were forcibly herded into official structures - the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

    Airborne forces

    The most efficient part of the Ukrainian Wehrmacht is the Highly Mobile Airborne Troops.

    During the war years, the Ukrainian Airborne Forces have undergone significant changes, having almost doubled their numbers. At the same time, five of the seven brigades received the status of airborne assault, in fact, turning into elite ground mechanized units.

    Recognizing a fait accompli, in November 2017, the Ukrainian Airborne Forces renamed the Airborne Assault Forces, deprived of the Soviet blue berets and symbols, replacing them according to the NATO model with dark burgundy berets with a new sign - a parachute canopy, the wings of Archangel Michael and a fiery sword that burns out the filth ...

    However, the Ukrainian DShV is undermined by the same disease as the rest of the army - a chronic shortage of personnel, drunkenness and drug addiction. In addition, almost all the military equipment of the Ukrainian DShV is outdated Soviet, British and American models of the end of the last century.

    National Guard


    Another elite formation of the Bandera regime was the 60,000-strong National Guard. It was in its composition that the largest number of Ukrainianized scum flocked, who tried to stay away from the front, but at the same time be able to rob and make money in the war. Accordingly, they did not care about their fighting spirit.

    However, it is worth noting that the National Guard fighters do not waste time in the rear and are constantly training under the guidance of their commanders and foreign instructors from the USA, Italy, Georgia, Canada. The training is quite intensive and relies on a good training base.

    The National Guard has priority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine in receiving foreign military assistance and new products from the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, whether it be BTR-3, BTR-4 or armored vehicles "Cougar", "Kozak", "Bars". In comparison with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guards were much better fed and equipped.

    Tank forces

    Ukrainian tank forces have undergone significant changes in recent years .

    If by the beginning of 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine had only two tank brigades of dubious combat effectiveness, then by 2018 there were already six of them. The 1st and 17th tank brigades are constantly in the ATO (OOS) zone, the 5th was sent to the border with Crimea.

    The other three tank brigades are in reserve.

    The degree of their combat readiness remains questionable due to an acute shortage of personnel and serviceable equipment.

    Mechanized troops

    Great changes have also taken place in the mechanized troops.

    At the start of the war in Donbass, the Ukrainian army had eight mechanized brigades. One of them was disbanded following the results of the 2014 campaign.

    But in 2014-2018, the Bandera regime additionally formed a mountain assault, infantry-ranger and nine more mechanized brigades.

    Thus, the total number of mechanized and mountain infantry brigades in the Armed Forces of Ukraine doubled after 2014.

    However, this had the most negative effect on their manning with tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and MLRS. The brigades constantly suffered losses at the front, and the human reinforcements and the re-entry of old stocks of equipment were late.

    As a result, almost all mechanized brigades had limited combat capability. All the best that could be obtained from the Americans or the Ukrainian military-industrial complex was received by the paratroopers and national guards. And the little that still fell to the army was kept in the rear for parades and exhibitions.

    It was the acute shortage of equipment that forced the Kiev junta to begin the formation of the so-called motorized infantry brigades.

    Instead of a full-fledged tank battalion, they received only a tank company, a limited number of armored vehicles, infantry in cars and towed artillery.

    In total, five motorized infantry brigades were formed. In fact, these were reserve units, suitable for plugging holes at the front and waiting for equipment to turn into full-fledged mechanized brigades.

    Artillery units

    Artillery units underwent significant changes during the war years. The Ukrainian Armed Forces started the war with two artillery brigades.

    Already during the battles for Slavyansk, the Ukrainian command deliberately chose the tactics of using artillery fire as a means of terror against civilians and the destruction of social infrastructure.

    By killing thousands of women, children and old people, Ukrainian artillerymen tried to sow fear and panic among the population of Donbass. However, the punishers achieved exactly the opposite result - the initial fear of the people soon melted into a persistent hatred of the Ukrainian "liberators".

    During the 2014 campaign, both artillery brigades and all artillery groups of mechanized brigades suffered significant losses. The surviving artillery pieces and MLRS received significant wear on their barrels, which made their shooting less accurate.

    Therefore, in the fall of 2014, a large-scale de-mothballing of Soviet artillery equipment stocks and the formation of new artillery brigades began. Due to the catastrophic shortage of self-propelled guns, artillery groups and new brigades had to be armed with towed howitzers D-30 and D-20, which greatly reduced the ability to maneuver on the battlefield.

    By 2019, the Armed Forces of Ukraine included 7 artillery brigades, which were armed with up to two thousand self-propelled guns, guns and MLRS.

    During the war years, the training of Ukrainian artillerymen has significantly increased. They played an important role in the defense of the Donetsk airport, performed well during the battle for Debaltseve and gained vast experience during the many years of trench warfare.

    At the same time, the Ukrainian artillery still lacks junior command personnel.
    All Ukrainian OTRK "Tochka-U" are assembled as part of the 19th separate missile brigade. She used them extensively (but almost always unsuccessfully) during the 2014-2015 campaign.

    Ukrainian rocket artillery has also undergone changes. By the beginning of the war in the Armed Forces of Ukraine there were three regiments of rocket artillery 15th (MLRS "Smerch"), 27th (MLRS "Uragan") and 107th (MLRS "Smerch"). Later, the 27th and 107th regiments were deployed into brigades.

    Picking

    The sharp increase in the number of Ukrainian brigades and formations to the limit exacerbated the issue of replenishing them with personnel. From March 2014 to August 2015, the Kiev junta had to carry out six (!) Waves of forced mobilizations one after another. All of them failed, since the Bandera regime never had mass support from the population. And if in the first waves there was still a significant number of volunteers intoxicated with the ideas of the Maidan, then their number dropped sharply.

    In the fall of 2015, mobilizations were discontinued. It became abundantly clear that Russia was not planning an invasion of Ukraine. In addition, due to mass unemployment, impoverishment of the population and rabid Russophobic propaganda, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, even without mobilization, have the opportunity to hire an almost unlimited number of applicants. Including technical specialists.

    And although millions of Ukrainians chose to emigrate to Russia and Europe out of harm's way, about 100 thousand unemployed lumpen of the Ukrainian hinterland voluntarily went to contract service. One of the tempting prospects for them was the receipt of the prescribed benefits, free land and a vague promise to help at the end of their service in finding employment in foreign private military and security companies.

    In the summer of 2016, Ukrainian President Poroshenko allowed foreigners and stateless persons to serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard. In order to replenish the army, the Ukrainian authorities have raised the age limit for contract servicemen of both sexes up to 60 years.

    This whole complex of voluntary-compulsory measures allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to replenish the staff of army units and create a mobilization reserve, which received real combat experience in the battles in the Donbass.

    Thanks to this, the Ukrainian command gained the ability to rotate army units on the front line. While the Russian fighters of the Donbass corps have been fighting almost continuously with the enemy on the front line for 7 years, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are regularly withdrawn to the rear for rest, replenishment and combat training.

    Kiev's acquisition of a European visa-free regime in the summer of 2017 dealt a crushing blow to the recruitment process for the Ukrainian army.

    Many chose to go to work in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, rather than lay their heads on the Eastern Front. In 2018-2020, 77 thousand officers, warrant officers and contract soldiers voluntarily resigned from the Armed Forces of Ukraine - more than a third of the hard-won professionals.

    The recruiting campaigns of subsequent years went with a huge creak: up to 60% of recruits did not appear at the recruiting offices.

    Another problem that the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not manage to solve is the recruitment of army units with qualified officers familiar with modern military equipment and combat tactics.

    Theft of officers


    But most of all, the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine undermines the bestial attitude towards soldiers and officers on the part of colonels and generals.

    The huge gap between the "generals" and the ordinary "cattle", characteristic of the Petliura troops during the Civil War, was clearly manifested after 2014. The size of theft in the general-colonel's milieu took on an incredible scale in its cynicism. The number of dollar millionaires among the Ukrainian generals has increased significantly.

    It should be especially noted that almost all the higher and part of the middle Ukrainian command staff are involved in criminal cases of the Investigative Committee of Russia for inhuman methods of warfare. In total, about a hundred Ukrainian military personnel are involved in criminal cases, among them twenty are from the country's top military leadership.

    As for the privates and officers, they perfectly see the oligarchic showdown, the redistribution of property, the theft of higher-ranking commanders. Many of those who chased the long hryvnia turned out to be deceived.

    Riots in Ukrainian brigades demanding the payment of salaries and the required benefits have become regular.

    It turned out to be incredibly difficult to obtain compensations for those killed in the ATO zone established by law, since the Ukrainian authorities did not care either about the "heavenly heroes" who had done their dirty work, or about their family members. Everything that concerns money, they nipped in the bud.

    Those killed on the Eastern Front were constantly recorded as suicides, missing, meticulously checking corpses for the presence of alcohol (a person killed in a drunken state was immediately deprived of all required benefits).

    The wounded and disabled during the hostilities in the Donbass were often referred to as casualties on the basis of documents. With this formulation, they were not entitled to anything at all.

    Many turned out to be nothing and nothing to treat. Funds allocated for medical support disappeared in an unknown direction. When heavy battles were fought near Avdiivka in 2017, doctors of Ukrainian hospitals and hospitals were forced to turn to the population with a request to bring the most necessary medicines and hygiene products, up to bandages and drinking water!

    Desertion


    As a result, in the first four years of the ATO, 34 thousand Ukrainian servicemen chose to defect from the ranks.

    "The best army in Europe",

    unable to withstand the disregard for himself, the lack of money and the dull life of trench life.

    Working in Poland or engaging in racketeering, extortion and extortion in Ukraine turned out to be much safer and financially more profitable for them.

    The rest rot in the trenches, especially since the war took a positional character for many years, and their front-line life entered its measured track.

    Life and supplies are at the very least, the positions are equipped. Stoves are installed inside the dugouts, light is on, stolen carpets hang on the walls, there are TVs and microwave ovens. There are no problems with the Internet and mobile communications either. And most importantly, you don't have to think about how to survive in civilian life and how to feed your family.

    Alcoholism and drug addiction


    The bulk prefers to kill time by shelling Donbass cities and villages, and then drown the pangs of conscience at the bottom of the glass.

    Alcohol and drug addiction among military personnel has become one of the main problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    Defense Minister Poltorak and Chief of the General Staff Muzhenko were forced to admit the problem of alcoholization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    President Poroshenko has issued a number of decrees and orders on the fight against drunkenness and increasing responsibility for this violation of military discipline. However, so far the"green serpent" is winning - both at the front and in the deep rear.

    Even the chief military prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoly Matios could not keep silent about one of the most tragic incidents. In the fall of 2016, one of the warriors, in a drunken stupor, brought a grenade into a combat state, and then threw it into the stove.

    “Thirteen people were killed.

    Where to write them down? "

    - Matios complained, commenting on the incident.

    According to him, the total number of non-combat losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the four years of the ATO was more than 10 thousand dead and wounded!

    After the front

    Returning from the front, the "warriors of light", completely stupefied with impunity and the blood of their compatriots, awaited new trials. Every month the economic situation in the country worsened. And they were extremely reluctant to take on vacant jobs, trying to refuse them for any reason.

    It also became extremely difficult for them to leave for work with their bloody biographies - both in Europe and in Russia they do not burn with the desire to see punishers on their territory.

    In turn, the inhabitants of Ukraine are annoyed that

    "ATOshniki"

    live above the laws of society - they terrorize ordinary people, they want a special attitude towards themselves and a free life at the expense of their benefits.

    Faced with indifference, disgust and contempt on the part of fellow citizens and the state, the punishers could not find themselves in a peaceful life, did not meet with an understanding of their own problems.

    Speaking in the fall of 2017 in the Verkhovna Rada, the chief psychiatrist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Oleg Druz, said that

    93% (!) Of ATO participants are dangerous for others and suffer from the consequences of severe post-traumatic stress disorder.

    Many of them were tormented by the nightmares of war, tormented by the remnants of conscience for the crimes they had committed, depression killed.

    All this resulted in wild crimes.

    Hand of the West

    As for Western assistance, at the turn of 2015-2016, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, with the assistance of Western experts, adopted four important documents: the National Security Strategy, the Military Doctrine, the Concept for the Development of the Security and Defense Sector and the Strategic Defense Bulletin.

    The general strategic direction expressed in them is the gradual transition of the Ukrainian army to NATO standards and preparation for a full-scale war with Russia.

    The reform consisted in the transition to the so-called J-structure, which is standard for NATO command and control bodies, and the G-structure for troops. This allowed any NATO soldier, looking at his Ukrainian counterpart, to understand what he was doing and to interact with him.

    However, this reform had a very painful downside - a sharp reduction in the number of generals and "grain" positions.

    The previous attempt at reforms in the army on the NATO model, carried out under President Viktor Yushchenko, failed precisely because of massive sabotage by the Ukrainian generals.

    After the coup d'état in 2014, NATO representatives again faced bureaucratic red tape, weak initiative, and slow implementation of approved programs. Instead of bringing the existing brigades to full staff and 100 percent combat readiness, the Ukrainian General Staff preferred to breed more and more new formations.

    As a result, more than 20 brigade headquarters, four operational command headquarters, four sector headquarters, four branch headquarters of the Armed Forces and four air command headquarters appeared.

    President Poroshenko also added problems, who decided that 121 generals and admirals for Ukraine was not a serious figure and at the beginning of 2015, by his decree, added another 30 general positions.

    In total, during the period 2014-2017, fifty new generals appeared in Ukraine.

    By 2020, Ukraine has gotten rid of the Soviet system of ranks in the army, introducing military ranks according to NATO standards (although members of the Alliance are not obliged to change them). In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there appeared such outlandish titles as master sergeant, general, brigadier general.

    The military uniform and insignia of servicemen have changed several times.

    As for the fundamental issues of introducing in the Ukrainian army standard NATO procedures for the military-industrial complex control system, medical and clothing support, communication standards, no strategic progress in these areas has been observed to this day.

    Something is really being implemented, but this process is not of a massive nature, radically changing the appearance and structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    For the sake of objectivity, it should be noted that the joint efforts of Ukraine and NATO to create a combat-ready armed forces were not in vain.

    The Ukrainian army of the spring of 2014 and the sample of 2021 - heaven and earth.

    She received real combat experience and became capable of performing a number of new tasks, fully restoring the overwhelming advantage over the insurgent Donbass in all respects - the number of troops, artillery, aviation , tanks and armored vehicles.

    Thanks to the western "Voentorg", the Armed Forces of Ukraine were provided with optics and digital communications much better than the Donbass corps. An air reconnaissance unit appeared in almost every battalion.

    All this allowed the Ukrainians to significantly improve controllability and operational assessment of the situation on the front line.

    The enemy made especially strong advances in the sniper business, starting a systematic mass training of well-aimed shooters, equipping them with modern foreign optical devices, equipment and large-caliber rifles.

    Ukrainian snipers felt quite at ease at the front and unleashed real terror against the military personnel and civilians of Donbass. There were cases of the defeat of Russian fighters by a sniper shot in the head through the breastwork of the trench, from which the deceased looked out with the help of a periscope tube.

    For the better, logistics, food, and supplies have advanced in the Ukrainian army. Many Ukrainian brigades have improved their fighting qualities through training by NATO instructors.

    The internal moods of the Ukrainian servicemen have also changed significantly.

    For several years of sitting in the trenches, their brains were filled to overflowing with the poison of nationalism, Russophobia and pro-Western servility.

    All Ukrainian units were deprived of the former glory of the victors of Berlin, Vienna, Budapest. Instead, the Ukrainian Armed Forces slipped a muddy brew of events and characters of Ukrainian myth-making, heavily mixed with Russophobic ideology.

    "Centuries-old confrontation between Ukraine and Russia."

    The Zaporozhye Cossacks (who eventually asked to join Russia themselves), the OUN-UPA and the SS Galicia division, Nazi henchmen Bandera and Shukhevych, the traitor Hetman Vygovsky and other Ukrainian figures known for their slavish groveling before the West and By the Vatican.

    2021

    By 2021, the Ukrainian Wehrmacht has grown to 255 thousand people.

    And it included 6 tank, 16 mechanized, mountain assault, infantry ranger and 5 motorized infantry brigades.

    Let's add to them 7 brigades of paratroopers of the DShV, the marines of the Naval Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, border guards and employees of the SBU, who (in case of need) can also take up arms to conduct hostilities.

    Well, and several million reservists, whose main destiny is to become "cannon fodder" for the sake of NATO's ambitions and to wage a guerrilla war.

    Special attention is paid to the preparation of the Bandera underground in Kiev, since the troops of the territorial defense can mobilize a large amount of "cannon fodder" and are 10 times cheaper than the maintenance of the Armed Forces.

    In addition, Ukraine has very deep traditions and experience of the partisan movement - both the Soviet system of partisan struggle of the legendary Kovpak and the Bandera underground.

    In 2018, as part of the territorial defense reform in Ukraine, 24 brigades led by regular officers were formed to conduct a guerrilla war in case "Russian aggression and occupation".

    In 2020, all brigades were subordinated to a separate Territorial Defense Command.

    However, the difficult socio-economic situation, corruption and theft, multiplied by constant political battles in Kiev, problems with the provision of troops with equipment, food, monetary allowances, the social gap between generals, officers and enlisted personnel did not allow the self-styled to turn the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a single powerful organism. welded together by discipline and duty.

    The Ukrainian army still remains the army of the 20th century, armed with obsolete Soviet weapons.

    If in Russia the share of modern weapons in the Armed Forces is about 60-70%, then the Ukrainian Wehrmacht has only 10% of modern technology.

    There is no money for the massive purchase of new samples, since the volume of defense spending for 2021–2023 due to the difficult economic situation and corruption is planned downward - to 2.26% of GDP.

    The situation is aggravated by high combat and non-combat losses, alcoholism, drug addiction, looting, poor discipline, lack of proper pay and career prospects.

    In 2018, the international organization "Global Firepower" published another rating of the military power of the world's leading armies. According to the findings of experts,

    "In the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is a low level of military discipline, general and special training, as well as motivation for military service, including in the ATO zone."

    At the level of "soldier - sergeant" there is a failure to comply with orders and orders of commanders, alcohol abuse, drug use.

    At the junior officer level, there is an inadequacy for the positions held due to lack of training.

    Officers of the “battalion, regiment commander” level are not able to fully carry out the tasks of the command, including due to the high degree of corruption and nepotism.

    The generals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are frankly stupid and professionally unsuitable.

    Output

    The overall conclusion was disappointing:

    "At the first stage of the armed conflict, more than 70% of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as all combat and military transport aircraft, will be destroyed by Russian means of destruction."

    However, NATO strategists did not prepare any other fate for the "natives".

    The task of the Ukrainian Wehrmacht is to die under the tracks of Russian tanks, causing the maximum possible damage to the Russian world.

    Author: Sergey Rusov

    https://6b6gjclcha6ibjpa45wvvqdamu--topwar-ru.translate.goog/180729-ukrainskij-vermaht.html

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  medo Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:42 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    Yes removing  the access to the sea would also make the rest of the country much less interesting for the west.... it would become a much worse functioning bielorussia...

    The fact that Kerch, Odessa and Nikolaev oblasts are less antirussian than the rest of the country (and there, as far as I understood, also most of the younger generation still prefer to speak in Russian)  probably helps.

    However Dnepropetrovsk oblast (historical centre of Novorossia and in the path between Donetsk and the Dnepr  river) has been ukrainazed much more. Only the older generation prefer to use Russian and most of the younger inhabitants (except a few exception), while knowing Russian prefer to use Ukrainian in their day to day lives...
    Furthermore Dnepropetrovsk was also the centre of the antirussian clans and politicians in the recent past.

    Anyway, if at least a majority of the people in the southern oblasts would be up to rebel to current Ukrainian authorities,  maybe taking advantages of the turmoil after a failed ukrainian attack to the donbass, Russia could try and push for a sort of Abkhazian scenario, turning those oblasts west of Donbass and until Transnistria in a sort of semi-independent protectorate...

    If not, well Russia can wait and just allow the donbass to rejoin the motherland.  The only issue there is that Donetsk oblast has no defensible geographical borders from the west  (Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhe oblasts)....

    Donetsk will be center of Novorussia. I think with Ukrainian new war, Minsk 2 agreement will be dead and with that Novorussia project will be revived, as it is only frozen, not canceled. Novorussia will most probably spread to Zaporozhye, Herson, Nikolayev and Oddesa, where we could as well expect start of armed rebelion against ukronazis. Harkov could join as well, if also rebeled against Kiev. The rest oblasts will remain in Ukraine. Novorussia will have Black Sea coast and open road to Pridnestrovye, which could also join Novorussia for protection against Moldavia.

    Actually Novorussia should take Herson and Dnepropetrovska as well. In that case one of the mane gas pipelines to Europe will be on the territory of Novorussia, which could remain working, while the rest through Ukraine could be closed.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Ukrain10

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Gts_uk10

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  LMFS Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:53 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Yes removing  the access to the sea would also make the rest of the country much less interesting for the west.... it would become a much worse functioning bielorussia...

    Exactly. And it would give a passage to the West for eventual pipelines, plus settle the Transnistrian issue. This is politic fiction, but Ukraine and the West should not ignore the possibility, because of the Russian stronghold in the West of Ukraine (Odessa and Transnistria) that ultimately enables them to make pressure from both sides, plus the proximity of Crimea controlling those territories from the South. Right now 2,000 paratroopers are participating in drills there...

    The fact that Kerch, Odessa and Nikolaev oblasts are less antirussian than the rest of the country (and there, as far as I understood, also most of the younger generation still prefer to speak in Russian)  probably helps.

    The whole Southeast massively voted for Yanukovich and is of Russian origin. Of course the brainwashing has blurred that reality.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 1280px-%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en

    Anyway, if at least a majority of the people in the southern oblasts would be up to rebel to current Ukrainian authorities,  maybe taking advantages of the turmoil after a failed ukrainian attack to the donbass, Russia could try and push for a sort of Abkhazian scenario, turning those oblasts west of Donbass and until Transnistria in a sort of semi-independent protectorate...

    Yes, let's be honest, this is not a solution thought to take the Russian Ukraine into the arms of the Motherland, but to screw Ukraine and the West really hard, if they really exaggerate. Means would be given to the LDNR and pro-Russian forces in the territories to take control of them, purge the Nazis and eliminate the Ukrainian influence. Russian cannot take care of all those territories and rebuild them, or reintegrate a population totally used to live of handouts. I don't think this scenario will happen, it would not be fair for a certain part of the population, but there is a lot at stake and in wars there are victims. That is why Ukraine should not trigger what they cannot control.

    If not, well Russia can wait and just allow the donbass to rejoin the motherland.  The only issue there is that Donetsk oblast has no defensible geographical borders from the west  (Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhe oblasts)....

    Yes, exactly. The contact line would need to be pushed away from main urban centers, but that should be perfectly feasible.

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    VARGR198
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  VARGR198 Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:09 pm

    If you want something to laugh at. Ukrainian air force commander states intentions to get F35s.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  flamming_python Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:29 pm

    I don't see the need to take any Ukrainian oblasts, simply secure the rest of the Donetsk and Lugansk ones by means of the DNR/LNR army.

    The rest can stay in the Ukraine, that they were loyal to in 2014 when the coup government shelled their countrymen in the Donbass. Who needs those identity-confused turncoats?

    Cut access to the sea? The load of Odessa port has already more than halved over the last year, since the Ust-Luga port has been brought into full operation, while control over the Crimea already ensures Russia dominance over the Black Sea basin.

    And all this will add up to all these territories being a massive a massive weight hanging off the neck of Kiev, off the West, and accelerating the economic decline of the Ukraine next to Russia and the rest of Europe, in particular serving for Russia, as a constant source of immigration to replenish Russia's own population. This is of far more value then whatever rusty outdated factories, ports, infrastructure are left in the Ukrainian east.

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  franco Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:54 pm

    I tend to agree with this view unless other regions decide enough is enough and revolt. Most don't realize that most of those National Guard units are stationed in the other Southeast Ukrainian regions to ensure the loyalty or control there off.
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 34 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Post  nero Sat Mar 13, 2021 5:37 pm

    https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1370751554383384578

    Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen. Khomchak: "Russia's aggression in Donbas is a major threat not only to Ukraine and its national security but to the security and stability of all NATO members."

    The head of Kyiv's delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas, Leonid Kravchuk says he does not exclude the outbreak of a large-scale conflict in eastern Ukraine, therefore, he advocates the involvement of the US in the negotiations.

    The sounds of shelling and gunfire reported around Donetsk Airport.

    It's my guess that 'Ukraine' decided to renegotiate Minsk II. They'll probably want to get themselves in a better position for that.

    I would rule out any large scale separatism in other regions, btw. The main reason behind the rise-up in Donbas was former-military and security personnel fleeing there after Maidan. Everyone that is pro-Russian and could lift a finger to help has already left Ukraine.

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