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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 01/01/20, 07:39 pm

    kvs wrote:
    nero wrote:
    GarryB wrote:why wasn't this alternative Russian ship doing the job in the first place
    The only reason there are European companies involved in the Nord stream pipeline was because Germany asked the Russians to split responsibility.


    And Russia was under no obligation to give the filthy rich west any charity.    Thanks to this pandering it has to eat Ukr sh*t.  


    Yeap.

    Russia fucked up big time. I have a feeling it is Gazprom at full fault for all of this. I mean, this is same company that funds the anti russian media outlet Moscow Times. So you know they are full of shit. They probably made sure it wasnt near by to take over the pipe laying so that it forces Russian government to sign a bullshit deal with Ukraine. Now Anti Russian Ukrainians will enjoy free money from Russia, cheaper gas and all the while kill more Russians because of their nonsense.

    GarryB cant seem to figure this out. Nor can anyone else. Ukraine is an enemy of Russia. Yet Russia now pandered to them. Even Ukraine shows more of a spine with no nuclear weapons than Russia does.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on 01/01/20, 07:45 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    nero wrote:
    GarryB wrote:why wasn't this alternative Russian ship doing the job in the first place
    The only reason there are European companies involved in the Nord stream pipeline was because Germany asked the Russians to split responsibility.


    And Russia was under no obligation to give the filthy rich west any charity.    Thanks to this pandering it has to eat Ukr sh*t.  


    Yeap.

    Russia fucked up big time.  I have a feeling it is Gazprom at full fault for all of this.  I mean, this is same company that funds the anti russian media outlet Moscow Times.  So you know they are full of shit.  They probably made sure it wasnt near by to take over the pipe laying so that it forces Russian government to sign a bullshit deal with Ukraine.  Now Anti Russian Ukrainians will enjoy free money from Russia, cheaper gas and all the while kill more Russians because of their nonsense.

    GarryB cant seem to figure this out.  Nor can anyone else.  Ukraine is an enemy of Russia.  Yet Russia now pandered to them.  Even Ukraine shows more of a spine with no nuclear weapons than Russia does.

    You mean Echo of Moscow radio station, the Moscow Times was formerly owned by a string of foreign outfits.

    Russia is being retardedly soft. That is the wrong signal to send a pack of hyenas (NATO). They only know blood and fear. Russian leaders think that acting like a goody two shoes
    will give them credit. Idiots. It will bring scorn and additional misery down the line.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 01/01/20, 08:43 pm

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    nero wrote:
    GarryB wrote:why wasn't this alternative Russian ship doing the job in the first place
    The only reason there are European companies involved in the Nord stream pipeline was because Germany asked the Russians to split responsibility.


    And Russia was under no obligation to give the filthy rich west any charity.    Thanks to this pandering it has to eat Ukr sh*t.  


    Yeap.

    Russia fucked up big time.  I have a feeling it is Gazprom at full fault for all of this.  I mean, this is same company that funds the anti russian media outlet Moscow Times.  So you know they are full of shit.  They probably made sure it wasnt near by to take over the pipe laying so that it forces Russian government to sign a bullshit deal with Ukraine.  Now Anti Russian Ukrainians will enjoy free money from Russia, cheaper gas and all the while kill more Russians because of their nonsense.

    GarryB cant seem to figure this out.  Nor can anyone else.  Ukraine is an enemy of Russia.  Yet Russia now pandered to them.  Even Ukraine shows more of a spine with no nuclear weapons than Russia does.

    You mean Echo of Moscow radio station, the Moscow Times was formerly owned by a string of foreign outfits.    

    Russia is being retardedly soft.   That is the wrong signal to send a pack of hyenas (NATO).   They only know blood and fear.   Russian leaders think that acting like a goody two shoes
    will give them credit.  Idiots.  It will bring scorn and additional misery down the line.


    The likes of Garry and rest here think its some kind of smart maneuver when it isn't. I forsee very bad results for Russia as now others will really act against them. like placement of military equipment in Ukraine regardless what Russia feels because they know RUssia will back down thanks to the really piss poor tactics of Putin and the Kremlin.
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on 01/01/20, 08:43 pm

    "In business you don't get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate".

    This Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal (with all its positives and negatives) was what could be negotiated under the circumstances. No side is a 100% winner, and no side is a 100% looser. Everybody had to compromise.

    Now, let's consider the facts for the future:

    Fact 1:
    Volumes of gas transits through Ukraine are decreasing. Ukraine will make less and less money on transit fees:
    2018: 87 bcm
    2020: 65 bcm
    2021: 40 bcm
    2024: 40 bcm
    2025: ???

    Fact 2:
    As they are switching off more and more of their nuclear stations and as their own gas fields are being depleted, Europeans will be importing more and more gas in the future.
    North Stream 1, North Stream 2, Turkey Stream plus whatever can be supplied by LNG will not be sufficient to cover Europe's needs in the future. The Ukraine transit route will still be needed to some extant to sell some gas to Europe.

    Fact 3:
    The USA prospers in wartime, Russia can only prosper in peacetime. The more Russia sells gas, the more it can develop its economy. Ideally, Russia would like to have all its gas transport pipelines export gas at full capacity. If the demand is there, use the Ukraine route as well. Russia can not short-change itself just to hurt Ukraine.

    Fact 4:
    Ukraine is like a bottomless barrel. We all know where the money (court settlements and transit fees) given to Ukraine will end up: in the pockets of oligarchs.

    Fact 5:
    The USA is kept out of this business - no wonder why they are applying sanctions.
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    Post  miketheterrible on 01/01/20, 08:45 pm

    It would be better to short change yourself than to give more money to the enemy. simple.
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on 01/01/20, 08:59 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:It would be better to short change yourself than to give more money to the enemy. simple.

    Yeah: to burn your neighbour's house, set your own house on fire.
    That was Poroshenko's policy: to hurt Russia he hurt his own country.

    Zelenzky is no friend of Russia, but he is smart enough not to adopt Porky's mad policy. His approach is more pragmatic and less aggressive. Peace on their border is better than war for both countries. Putin will play along.

    Leave emotions aside, enemies can collaborate and make deals. History is full of examples.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 01/01/20, 09:12 pm

    What, build them up so they can join NATO and then be used as fodder to kill your people?  Currently, Ukrainians are doing that
    I think you forgot.

    So Russia has to build them up to help them kill Russians?  And no, gas through Ukraine if lost, would hurt Russia a tiny bit. EU would still get Russian gas. Ukraine would be screwed and their anti Russian BS wouldn't paid off.  But in this case, it did.

    Your false idea of being pragmatic blinds you from seeing what really happened - Russia is now responsible to take care of a country financially, that is being built up to be a springboard for war against Russia.

    Use your fucking brain.
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on 01/01/20, 09:49 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:What, build them up so they can join NATO and then be used as fodder to kill your people?  Currently, Ukrainians are doing that
    I think you forgot.

    So Russia has to build them up to help them kill Russians?  And no, gas through Ukraine if lost, would hurt Russia a tiny bit. EU would still get Russian gas. Ukraine would be screwed and their anti Russian BS wouldn't paid off.  But in this case, it did.

    Your false idea of being pragmatic blinds you from seeing what really happened - Russia is now responsible to take care of a country financially, that is being built up to be a springboard for war against Russia.

    Use your fucking brain.

    Nonsense.

    You are all emotions and no brain.

    There is no point continuing this discussion with you.

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on 01/01/20, 10:51 pm

    TheArmenian wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:What, build them up so they can join NATO and then be used as fodder to kill your people?  Currently, Ukrainians are doing that
    I think you forgot.

    So Russia has to build them up to help them kill Russians?  And no, gas through Ukraine if lost, would hurt Russia a tiny bit. EU would still get Russian gas. Ukraine would be screwed and their anti Russian BS wouldn't paid off.  But in this case, it did.

    Your false idea of being pragmatic blinds you from seeing what really happened - Russia is now responsible to take care of a country financially, that is being built up to be a springboard for war against Russia.

    Use your fucking brain.

    Nonsense.

    You are all emotions and no brain.

    There is no point continuing this discussion with you.


    Take a valium.  You are the one spouting brainless points based on ludicrous assumptions.  

    You assume that Russia engaged with Banderastan in some sort of neutral business negotiation.   But Russia did not even have
    to engage in any negotiation in the first place.    All it would have taken was for it to deploy the pipe laying ship from Primorsk to the
    Baltic several months ago.   The crescendo of US sanctions made such a move obvious.    All you clowns who systematically ignore
    this point are full of it and your opinions on this subject are totally worthless.
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    Post  kvs on 01/01/20, 10:58 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:What, build them up so they can join NATO and then be used as fodder to kill your people?  Currently, Ukrainians are doing that
    I think you forgot.

    So Russia has to build them up to help them kill Russians?  And no, gas through Ukraine if lost, would hurt Russia a tiny bit. EU would still get Russian gas. Ukraine would be screwed and their anti Russian BS wouldn't paid off.  But in this case, it did.

    Your false idea of being pragmatic blinds you from seeing what really happened - Russia is now responsible to take care of a country financially, that is being built up to be a springboard for war against Russia.

    Use your fucking brain.

    You are 100% correct. Negotiations with butchers are tantamount to a sell out. This is especially true when those negotiations are due to gross negligence and
    never had to happen in the first place.

    Given the delaying tactics by Denmark for well over a year, Gazprom should have started laying pipe from the German coast towards the end being laid from Russia.
    Any excuse that this would have produced some mismatch of the joint is baloney. They could easily cut the pipe to properly fit the ends and at the same time they
    could also allow for a small "kink" (not sharp but smooth) of the pipe to accommodate any length mismatch. Gazprom could have finished the pipe this way totally
    bypassing Denmark's "EEZ" more than six months ago. If they took this approach from the beginning they could have finished a year earlier at the least.
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on 02/01/20, 12:25 am

    kvs wrote:
    TheArmenian wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:What, build them up so they can join NATO and then be used as fodder to kill your people?  Currently, Ukrainians are doing that
    I think you forgot.

    So Russia has to build them up to help them kill Russians?  And no, gas through Ukraine if lost, would hurt Russia a tiny bit. EU would still get Russian gas. Ukraine would be screwed and their anti Russian BS wouldn't paid off.  But in this case, it did.

    Your false idea of being pragmatic blinds you from seeing what really happened - Russia is now responsible to take care of a country financially, that is being built up to be a springboard for war against Russia.

    Use your fucking brain.

    Nonsense.

    You are all emotions and no brain.

    There is no point continuing this discussion with you.


    Take a valium.  You are the one spouting brainless points based on ludicrous assumptions.  

    You assume that Russia engaged with Banderastan in some sort of neutral business negotiation.   But Russia did not even have
    to engage in any negotiation in the first place.    All it would have taken was for it to deploy the pipe laying ship from Primorsk to the
    Baltic several months ago.   The crescendo of US sanctions made such a move obvious.    All you clowns who systematically ignore
    this point are full of it and your opinions on this subject are totally worthless.

    Whoaaaa.

    You are barking at the wrong door. I am no Banderistan supporter. You know that very well.

    Of course this was not casual and simple business negotiations between buyer and seller. There are serious Geopolitics involved. No one is denying that.
    Could the Russians put themselves into a better position with more leverage? Maybe.
    Are there other behind the scenes agreements and deals between the major players that we are not aware of? Certainly

    The Ukraine transit was inevitable. There would be no North Stream 2 without some gas going through Ukraine. The Europeans made that clear a long time ago. Otherwise, Merkel and company would do exactly what the US wanted them to do: minimize inexpensive gas purchases from Russia and maximize expensive gas imports from USA and elsewhere.
    With that happening: The US influence will increase even more in EU. EU will voluntarily screw itself by overpaying for energy. Russia will have less revenues and its economy will be negatively impacted. Ukraine will still get money from EU and US. Biggest Winner: USA

    With this agreement that has been signed: the USA is kept out. Russia sells lots of gas. Europe gets all the cheap gas it needs. Ukraine gets a thin lifeline that will get only thinner with time. Biggest looser: USA

    It is a compromise: You win some and you loose some.



    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on 02/01/20, 06:26 am



    The only reason there are European companies involved in the Nord stream pipeline was because Germany asked the Russians to split responsibility.

    So what is the big deal?

    A minor delay in the pipeline being completed... Russian homes are not going to freeze over this... and any european countries complain about not being able to get gas can be referred to the Swiss and the Americans and the Germans for the decisions they made.

    And Russia was under no obligation to give the filthy rich west any charity.

    The Russians should have ignored their main customer?

    They probably made sure it wasnt near by to take over the pipe laying so that it forces Russian government to sign a bullshit deal with Ukraine.

    What are you dribbling about? Even if it was loaded with pipes and in position the deadline was yesterday... the original company was not going to finish in time let alone any replacement company... and even assuming they did manage that bit of magic they would still need to move gas through the Ukraine... even if both ships were doing the job and they finished 6 months ago they will still need the contract with the Ukraine and the terms would not likely have been much different from the ones they got.

    Now Anti Russian Ukrainians will enjoy free money from Russia, cheaper gas and all the while kill more Russians because of their nonsense.

    They are getting money from the EU via EU countries paying for Russian gas... Kiev is getting a cut of the money component of the gas price that covers delivery, so they are getting nothing from Russia in that sense, and they have a lot less money than they used to have and are still not getting mates rates gas.

    And they haven't killed any Russians... those are ukrainians they are killing within their own borders.

    GarryB cant seem to figure this out. Nor can anyone else. Ukraine is an enemy of Russia. Yet Russia now pandered to them. Even Ukraine shows more of a spine with no nuclear weapons than Russia does.

    Mike can't seem to figure out that the Ukraine borders Russia and that is NEVER going to change. The current regime in the Ukraine are dicks and funded by people who hate Russia, but pretty soon poverty is going to convince them that trading and commerce is the only way out of the hole they have dug for themselves and Russia doesn't mind trading with them as they have for a very long period to date... in contrast their new buddies in the west are not interested in the Ukraine except what they can steal and sell and make money on. How long do you think it will be for the west to realise the Ukraine is a burden... how long before some bright spark in the EU realises they could send all their dark skin coloured newest citizens to go and live in the Ukraine the way the UK sent their criminals and poor to Australia a few centuries ago. What will the nazis in charge of the Ukraine think of getting a bit of colour... perhaps what the baltic elite think... last article I read from a baltic state mentioned how white Russia is and how christian they are and how dark skinned these people causing trouble in Sweden are and how muslim they seem to be too... changing demographics seems to have tempered their belief that Russia is to blame... funny that...

    Russia is being retardedly soft.

    Being hard line would result in a stalemate which benefits the Ukraine and the US vastly more than it benefits Russia.

    That is the wrong signal to send a pack of hyenas (NATO). They only know blood and fear. Russian leaders think that acting like a goody two shoes
    will give them credit. Idiots. It will bring scorn and additional misery down the line.

    NATO is led by the US, and the signal to the US is that the EU runs on Russian gas... why is that the wrong signal?


    The likes of Garry and rest here think its some kind of smart maneuver when it isn't.

    No I don't. I just see it as a compromise... the Ukraine got a 5 year contract when they wanted a 10 year one, but Russia wanted a one year contract... probably because Russias position will be much stronger in one years time when alternative pipes are pumping, but I think a 5 year contract offers better stability and also gives the Ukraine a chance to elect another government and time to sort out their shit regarding their separatist regions... the way they handle that might effect how Russia wants to treat them as a neighbour and a customer of their product.

    Getting that 2.6 billion out of the way could potentially offer the chance of a new start, not that I am very hopeful, I think it is worth a try...

    The amount of guaranteed gas flow is much lower than Kiev wanted, which is good for Russia.

    This Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal (with all its positives and negatives) was what could be negotiated under the circumstances. No side is a 100% winner, and no side is a 100% looser. Everybody had to compromise.

    X2

    It would be better to short change yourself than to give more money to the enemy. simple.

    They have no way to use it against Russia effectively... 2.6 billion is not going to help much even if you held a gun to the head of the person distributing it it would still largely disappear. Hunter Biden was getting 50K a year for probably not doing anything... where else is the money haemorrhaging in that one company let alone all the other little branches...

    What, build them up so they can join NATO and then be used as fodder to kill your people?

    If NATO wants them to join what difference will it make if Russian gas is moving through their pipes to customers in Europe?

    If they don't want them then no matter what they do they wont be a part of NATO.

    Besides the more bloated NATO gets the better I would think... enormous waste of money and resources for fighting US wars all over the world...

    Your false idea of being pragmatic blinds you from seeing what really happened - Russia is now responsible to take care of a country financially, that is being built up to be a springboard for war against Russia.

    Use your fucking brain.

    They are paying them transit fees which they have been doing the last 60 odd years... Russia is not going to give them anything else... for goodness sake you make it sound like they signed ownership of Gazprom over to them and now they own all the gas fields and all the pipes and everyone has to pay them money.

    Take a valium. You are the one spouting brainless points based on ludicrous assumptions.

    Take a valium?

    How American to try to solve problems with drugs.

    Russia has signed a gas transit deal. To get permission to transport gas across ukrainian territory they had to pay them money to be allowed to do so... how much is the gas per cubic metre? How many billion cubic metres are being transported across ukrainian territory?

    They might be getting 7 billion dollars in transit fees but Russia will be getting hundreds of billions of dollars in profit from gas sales to the Ukraine and the EU so it is worth it for Russia to do so.

    Cutting off your nose to spite ones face is what the Ukraine does... not Russia... they are the sensible ones that say no to drugs.

    You assume that Russia engaged with Banderastan in some sort of neutral business negotiation. But Russia did not even have
    to engage in any negotiation in the first place. All it would have taken was for it to deploy the pipe laying ship from Primorsk to the
    Baltic several months ago.

    Bullshit... even if they sent it over at the start of the project and had it working the other end of the pipeline and they finished the damn thing a year ago they would still need a gas transit contract with the Ukraine.

    [qutoe]The crescendo of US sanctions made such a move obvious. All you clowns who systematically ignore
    this point are full of it and your opinions on this subject are totally worthless.[/quote]

    We ignore it because it is pointless and irrelevant. Even at full capacity Nord Stream I and II and South Stream I and II don't carry enough to replace what the Ukrianian pipes can transport now and South Stream needs to be connected up which is going to take a lot of time with back stabbing dirt bags like Bulgaria and mortal enemies like Turkey and Greece involved.

    Negotiations with butchers are tantamount to a sell out.

    Really?

    So no negotiations with the west at all?

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    Post  PhSt on 02/01/20, 06:42 am


    Overall, the situation puts Russia at a disadvantage, Russia has no other cards to play so they are FORCED to negotiate with Ukraine until Nord Stream 2 is fully operational. In an alternate timeline, Russia wouldn't have to put up with this kind of BULLSHlT if they used a Tiananmen Square method to crush all the 5th column pigs that broke up the SU. Russia needs to work double time to collapse and breakup the US. And this needs to be done in our timeline.
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    Post  flamming_python on 04/01/20, 05:15 am

    It is a pathetic deal fit to be ratified only by a comprador leadership

    The Ukrainian regime is an enemy. Germany wants Russia to pay for them, and they have succeeded. But the Germans are NATO puppets and hardly friends of Russia. Why is Russia spending time and money appeasing them? It can do without Nord Stream 2 if it has to. Germany cannot. Russia has the leverage here.
    So what if that's what the US wants too? Let the Germans buy expensive US LNG. They'll be making their own industries less competitive.
    The US is already winning by forcing Russia to negotiate with the Ukraine by sabotaging Nord Stream 2 construction. Why should they be rewarded for this dirty move?

    And if Russia is trying to pull Merkel's Germany away from the US then it is dangerously delusional. It is Germany that's the biggest financial sponsor of all these anti-Russian regimes in Eastern Europe. That has been siding with the US over Iran. That has reacted with outrage to Macron's initiative of phasing away from NATO and including Russia is a new security architecture. In all essense Germany is as anti-Russian as Britain or Sweden or Poland are, even if it's generally more quiet about it. The gas supplies are strictly business for it, so why shouldn't it be business for Russia. If Germany starts making unreasonable political demands over it like having to keep half of Ukrainian gas transit, then Russia should tell it to get stuffed.

    And the $3 billion the Ukraine owes to Russia has all but been forgotten about too.
    So have the Minsk agreements, that seem to have expired now with the Ukraine not holding up its side of the bargain.

    Putin is rigidly set in his same failing strategies that get nowhere. And he has become predictable. His enemies exploit this.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 04/01/20, 08:21 am

    I agree. Russia has the chance to take firm control. They didn't.

    The thing is, during the Putins talk with reporters, he himself pointed out how the $3B they pay to Ukraine is nonsense and that Ukraine owes Russia, by agreements of a court in London, $3B dollars. So Putin hasn't forgotten about it. And has emphasized that too. Blame the Russian journalists who forgot about it and not mentioning it or reporting it. Or blame the Russian government employees and Gazprom leader for not mentioning it.

    What pisses me off is that Putin complied with it. And has complied with working an agreement with Ukraine. And GarryB, dont be stupid. You know eastern Ukrainians (myself included) are Russian ethnics. And they are being killed by "Ukrainians" (a people coined by Austro Hungarian empire).

    Russia's foreign policy is garbage. Simply put. They should be pushing Belarus but no, they will end up losing Belarus too eventually. They lost Ukraine or at least what matters of Ukraine because they listened to the west. Instead, they should have let the regions who are pro Russian to separate. Instead, Minsk.... And as said by Flaming, all but forgotten.
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    Post  GarryB on 04/01/20, 01:24 pm

    The Ukrainian regime is an enemy. Germany wants Russia to pay for them, and they have succeeded. But the Germans are NATO puppets and hardly friends of Russia. Why is Russia spending time and money appeasing them? It can do without Nord Stream 2 if it has to. Germany cannot. Russia has the leverage here.

    The Kiev regime is the enemy, and Germany does want Russia to give some of the money Germany is paying for gas to Kiev as a transit fee... so what?

    Russia is transferring gas from Russia to the EU over Ukrainian territory and this agreement was necessary to facilitate that.

    What were you hoping for... Kiev to agree to carry EU gas for free?

    Why would they agree to that... considering their interaction with Russia on other things like helicopter and ship engines, Russia should be pleased they made this agreement.

    So what if that's what the US wants too? Let the Germans buy expensive US LNG. They'll be making their own industries less competitive.

    The pipes in the Ukraine are in place so with a contract and the flip of a switch Russia can sell natural gas to europe with pretty much zero actual spending... they don't need a boat, they just pay the Ukrainians for the use of their pipes like they have ALWAYS done.

    The point of a contract for a gas supply company is to be able to move gas to customers to sell it to them... this wasn't a battle.

    The US is already winning by forcing Russia to negotiate with the Ukraine by sabotaging Nord Stream 2 construction. Why should they be rewarded for this dirty move?

    Russia had to negotiate this contract whether NS2 was going smoothly or not, and Putin hasn't revealed what action Russia will take regarding US sanctions over this...

    And if Russia is trying to pull Merkel's Germany away from the US then it is dangerously delusional.

    A Russian gas company is trying to negotiate transfer agreements for their product to their major european customers... bulgaria and denmark are going to get transit fees too... despite the shit they pulled.

    It is Germany that's the biggest financial sponsor of all these anti-Russian regimes in Eastern Europe. That has been siding with the US over Iran. That has reacted with outrage to Macron's initiative of phasing away from NATO and including Russia is a new security architecture. In all essense Germany is as anti-Russian as Britain or Sweden or Poland are, even if it's generally more quiet about it. The gas supplies are strictly business for it, so why shouldn't it be business for Russia. If Germany starts making unreasonable political demands over it like having to keep half of Ukrainian gas transit, then Russia should tell it to get stuffed.

    That would be a decision Putin has to make... not the Russian gas company. And keep in mind the Soviet Union and Russia have never used energy supply as a weapon against europe before... it is only the US suggesting it gives them leverage that might be used against europe.

    And the $3 billion the Ukraine owes to Russia has all but been forgotten about too.
    So have the Minsk agreements, that seem to have expired now with the Ukraine not holding up its side of the bargain.

    They have 5 years with this new contract to sort out some things... by then Russia will have real alternatives including not supplying gas at all to europe, or supplying a mix of LNG and gas, or using the full capacity of the lines they have running.

    Putin is rigidly set in his same failing strategies that get nowhere. And he has become predictable. His enemies exploit this.

    Well he is on a hiding to nothing in this case because as you have already spelled it out... despite signing an agreement with the Ukraine to get Russian gas to europe and foiling enemy number one... US LNG... he loses anyway in your view because Germany gets cheap Russian gas, and Ukraine gets money for transit fees...

    I agree. Russia has the chance to take firm control. They didn't.

    Are you really that dumb... if Russia starts wielding its energy supply power like a weapon then it will be rather more than the US and the looney eastern europeans demanding alternative energy sources and Russia will end up with no customer at all.

    Look at Trump using the dollar as a weapon... it means people stop using the dollar and it loses its power.

    Instead an agreement was signed to keep Russian gas pumped into the EU via the Ukraine so the Russians continue to earn money, the Ukraine gets a small transfer fee on tens of billions of dollars of gas travelling over their territory... I really don't understand why everyone is screaming that the sky is falling.

    They will be pumping through less than last years amount this year, and even less for the next four years...

    If Russia starts swinging its gas like a big dick then the US can simply fund some big gas transport ships and the UAE and Saudi Arabia and a few other countries in the region could start delivering gas to Europe easily enough... not as cheap as Russian gas and in a normal competitive market it would have no chance, but if Putin starts swinging his dick around like a fuckwit (ie trump or micron or may or johnson) then they will likely gladly pay the higher price and accept the delays in defiance of Russian aggression...

    The effect for Russia is less income... and large amounts of money wasted building new pipelines to the EU.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on 04/01/20, 07:47 pm

    I'm not for Russia using energy supplies as a weapon

    Market prices. Including for the Ukraine.
    And if a country like Denmark starts making issues out of transiting Russian gas - so exclude them from the route. They are anti-Russian regimes and cannot be trusted to uphold commercial relations.

    It is actually Germany politicizing this issue, by tying cheap gas that it's trying to buy from Russia, to Russia continuing to subsidize the Ukraine for no reason and pumping gas through its pipelines instead of through Nord Stream 2.
    Helllooooo, it is Germany that needs Russia's gas. For Russia the profit is good, but it has other customers elsewhere too.

    Putin should tell them to get stuffed. Sell gas, LNG too - to China, India, Japan, South Korea.. countries that don't make politics out of it, simply pay the market rate and make no demands.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 04/01/20, 09:30 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    The Ukrainian regime is an enemy. Germany wants Russia to pay for them, and they have succeeded. But the Germans are NATO puppets and hardly friends of Russia. Why is Russia spending time and money appeasing them? It can do without Nord Stream 2 if it has to. Germany cannot. Russia has the leverage here.

    The Kiev regime is the enemy, and Germany does want Russia to give some of the money Germany is paying for gas to Kiev as a transit fee... so what?

    Russia is transferring gas from Russia to the EU over Ukrainian territory and this agreement was necessary to facilitate that.

    What were you hoping for... Kiev to agree to carry EU gas for free?

    Why would they agree to that... considering their interaction with Russia on other things like helicopter and ship engines, Russia should be pleased they made this agreement.

    So what if that's what the US wants too? Let the Germans buy expensive US LNG. They'll be making their own industries less competitive.

    The pipes in the Ukraine are in place so with a contract and the flip of a switch Russia can sell natural gas to europe with pretty much zero actual spending... they don't need a boat, they just pay the Ukrainians for the use of their pipes like they have ALWAYS done.

    The point of a contract for a gas supply company is to be able to move gas to customers to sell it to them... this wasn't a battle.

    The US is already winning by forcing Russia to negotiate with the Ukraine by sabotaging Nord Stream 2 construction. Why should they be rewarded for this dirty move?

    Russia had to negotiate this contract whether NS2 was going smoothly or not, and Putin hasn't revealed what action Russia will take regarding US sanctions over this...

    And if Russia is trying to pull Merkel's Germany away from the US then it is dangerously delusional.

    A Russian gas company is trying to negotiate transfer agreements for their product to their major european customers... bulgaria and denmark are going to get transit fees too... despite the shit they pulled.

    It is Germany that's the biggest financial sponsor of all these anti-Russian regimes in Eastern Europe. That has been siding with the US over Iran. That has reacted with outrage to Macron's initiative of phasing away from NATO and including Russia is a new security architecture. In all essense Germany is as anti-Russian as Britain or Sweden or Poland are, even if it's generally more quiet about it. The gas supplies are strictly business for it, so why shouldn't it be business for Russia. If Germany starts making unreasonable political demands over it like having to keep half of Ukrainian gas transit, then Russia should tell it to get stuffed.

    That would be a  decision Putin has to make... not the Russian gas company. And keep in mind the Soviet Union and Russia have never used energy supply as a weapon against europe before... it is only the US suggesting it gives them leverage that might be used against europe.

    And the $3 billion the Ukraine owes to Russia has all but been forgotten about too.
    So have the Minsk agreements, that seem to have expired now with the Ukraine not holding up its side of the bargain.

    They have 5 years with this new contract to sort out some things... by then Russia will have real alternatives including not supplying gas at all to europe, or supplying a mix of LNG and gas, or using the full capacity of the lines they have running.

    Putin is rigidly set in his same failing strategies that get nowhere. And he has become predictable. His enemies exploit this.

    Well he is on a hiding to nothing in this case because as you have already spelled it out... despite signing an agreement with the Ukraine to get Russian gas to europe and foiling enemy number one... US LNG... he loses anyway in your view because Germany gets cheap Russian gas, and Ukraine gets money for transit fees...

    I agree. Russia has the chance to take firm control. They didn't.

    Are you really that dumb... if Russia starts wielding its energy supply power like a weapon then it will be rather more than the US and the looney eastern europeans demanding alternative energy sources and Russia will end up with no customer at all.

    Look at Trump using the dollar as a weapon... it means people stop using the dollar and it loses its power.

    Instead an agreement was signed to keep Russian gas pumped into the EU via the Ukraine so the Russians continue to earn money, the Ukraine gets a small transfer fee on tens of billions of dollars of gas travelling over their territory... I really don't understand why everyone is screaming that the sky is falling.

    They will be pumping through less than last years amount this year, and even less for the next four years...

    If Russia starts swinging its gas like a big dick then the US can simply fund some big gas transport ships and the UAE and Saudi Arabia and a few other countries in the region could start delivering gas to Europe easily enough... not as cheap as Russian gas and in a normal competitive market it would have no chance, but if Putin starts swinging his dick around like a fuckwit (ie trump or micron or may or johnson) then they will likely gladly pay the higher price and accept the delays in defiance of Russian aggression...

    The effect for Russia is less income... and large amounts of money wasted building new pipelines to the EU.

    No, you are too daft to figure out that Russia was forced to pay Kiev when Kiev owes Russia money, and was forced to use Ukraine (enemy state) a transit nation that has a known history of stealing gas. And at 25% discount on gas for them to boot.. But you are stuck in stupid mode to figure that out.

    Want to use your stupid mental gymnastics around the 25% discount for a nation that is hostile to Russia and trying to commit terrorism in Russia?  I bet you can come up with something.

    The agreements were in place before pipeline was built. The countries (Germany as example) are responsible if pipeline can't be built. Meaning they can be sued for not completion of project.

    We have a funny bit of modern history going on here that in the future, most will be scratching their heads and wondering if Putin was really pro Russian or not.

    - Give credit and discount to enemy states who participate in killing Russian people (eastern Ukrainians).
    - Do not give credit and discounts to nations who are allies (Belarus, Armenia) so they end up looking elsewhere instead of Russia, hence Russia self isolationism.
    - Try to sound strong but fold easily. Instead of telling the Germans to fuck themselves and buy Russian gas at spot price and at the Russian border, they cave in and use Ukraine as transit nation. Smart bet would be to tell them to buy it at Russian/Ukraine border and all further transport past the border is in EU/Ukraines hands and funding, not Russia's.
    - As Flaming said, it is them not Russia, that is in need of the gas. Cheaper energy means you win. Germany knows this and knows that they need cheap energy and US energy is far from cheap. Thus they are in desperate need of the gas. But instead, Russia caves in to them! If they need it badly, they can use Nord Stream 1, Turkstream and Russian LNG. Outside of that, they have to figure out with Ukraine how they will transport from Russian border to EU.
    - Why give discount to Ukraine? They hate Russia. They hate Russians. They are killing Russians and banning the language and trying to destroy the religion too (orthodoxy). So why give them discount? Make them pay what the Europeans pay.

    This is all just stupid.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on 04/01/20, 10:58 pm

    Ah, what a very US way of doing things threaten economies, I thought guys hated the states here but you seem to love using our playbook when it suits your interest.

    One of us eh? lol!

    End of the day if Russia did not add Ukraine to the deal Germany wasn't going to bite, this means Russians would lose money.

    It really doesn't matter if some keyboard warriors think in the end, Politics and multi-billion dollar energy deals are never that simple and sometimes you have to give in on some areas to get what you want.

    Honestly, it wasn't a bad deal for the Russians, it could have been a lot worse.

    You can say all you want in the end of the day facts are facts, Russia made a choice that benefits its economy.


    Last edited by SeigSoloyvov on 05/01/20, 01:03 am; edited 2 times in total
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on 05/01/20, 12:09 am

    miketheterrible wrote:

    No, you are too daft to figure out that Russia was forced to pay Kiev when Kiev owes Russia money, and was forced to use Ukraine (enemy state) a transit nation that has a known history of stealing gas. And at 25% discount on gas for them to boot.. But you are stuck in stupid mode to figure that out.

    Want to use your stupid mental gymnastics around the 25% discount for a nation that is hostile to Russia and trying to commit terrorism in Russia?  I bet you can come up with something.

    The agreements were in place before pipeline was built. The countries (Germany as example) are responsible if pipeline can't be built. Meaning they can be sued for not completion of project.

    We have a funny bit of modern history going on here that in the future, most will be scratching their heads and wondering if Putin was really pro Russian or not.

    - Give credit and discount to enemy states who participate in killing Russian people (eastern Ukrainians).
    - Do not give credit and discounts to nations who are allies (Belarus, Armenia) so they end up looking elsewhere instead of Russia, hence Russia self isolationism.
    - Try to sound strong but fold easily.  Instead of telling the Germans to fuck themselves and buy Russian gas at spot price and at the Russian border, they cave in and use Ukraine as transit nation.  Smart bet would be to tell them to buy it at Russian/Ukraine border and all further transport past the border is in EU/Ukraines hands and funding, not Russia's.
    - As Flaming said, it is them not Russia, that is in need of the gas.  Cheaper energy means you win.  Germany knows this and knows that they need cheap energy and US energy is far from cheap.  Thus they are in desperate need of the gas.  But instead, Russia caves in to them!  If they need it badly, they can use Nord Stream 1, Turkstream and Russian LNG.  Outside of that, they have to figure out with Ukraine how they will transport from Russian border to EU.
    - Why give discount to Ukraine? They hate Russia.  They hate Russians.  They are killing Russians and banning the language and trying to destroy the religion too (orthodoxy).  So why give them discount? Make them pay what the Europeans pay.

    This is all just stupid.

    You make irrefutable points. The Russian government is apparently compromised by too many pro-western interests. By now it should be
    clear to anyone with a functional brain that the NATO west never plays fair and loves to engage in terrorism, sabotage and back stabbing
    to get ahead. I have made a clear case that there is obvious malfeasance or gross incompetence by

    1) Relying on a Swiss company for 100% of the pipe-laying. This is mind-numbing since it is trivial to have a backup plan deployed from
    day one and not close the barn door after all the horses have fled.

    2) Constructing the pipeline in only one direction after it became clear (two years ago) that the US was hell bent on sabotaging this
    project. Deploy the f*cking ship from Primorsk to construct the pipe from the German coast and finish almost twice as fast. The Denmark
    delaying tactics were the cherry on top of the turd cake that should have guaranteed such a construction response.

    And you make a good point about Nord Stream I. The ludicrous legal blocks on offloading gas from this pipe inside Germany triggered
    by the scum in Poland should have been Germany's problem. Instead Putin bent over backward and then forward to take it in the ass
    by hiring the Swiss as some sort of charity and coddling Germany's imbecilic infantile capriciousness. As you said, time for Russia to
    grow a spine and have the EU-tards eat US LNG cake if they hate Russia's cheap natural gas so much.

    Russia would not actually lose any money in the long run since it has contracted to sell gas to China. It doesn't have to sell to both.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 05/01/20, 01:40 am

    It isn't just China, its also Turkey, Japan, Korea, etc too that Russia has long term contracts with for gas supplies.  EU is just now one of many.  While EU is the largest, it has dwindled and is becoming less important, thus it would have been in Russias best interest to actually tell Germany to sort its own mess out.

    As stated here: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/129172/

    EU's supply of LNG, 20% of it comes from Russia when American is 13% as is currently.  So in reality, if the EU need it so damn bad, they can increase purchase of Russian LNG which is more expensive and means more money for Russian shipbuilding industry along with the LNG plants, so it creates even more jobs for Russia.  The pandering to EU is pathetic.

    Simply put, Russia should let EU handle Ukraine, not Russia.  As well, tell them that since they owe a recognized $3B to Russia, then they will cancel the $3B owed to Ukraine and thus not give them a single kopek.  But they handed over $3B while Ukraine still owes Russia $3B.

    And yes, completely, they dont need European market anymore.  It isn't the demand anymore.  It is Asia.  Russia has an easier time negotiating contracts with the fucking Turks than they do with Ukrainians or Germans.  That should say a lot.  Then again, Turkey knows all too well how Europeans fuck them over.

    Russia needs to show a spine and now sue the Swiss pipe laying company and Germany over the delay of the Nord Stream 2. Swiss company broke a contract so now it should compensate Russia entirely. Germany over demanding to use Ukraine while Ukraine failed to pay the debt. They can claim under pressure.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on 05/01/20, 01:56 am

    miketheterrible wrote:It isn't just China, its also Turkey, Japan, Korea, etc too that Russia has long term contracts with for gas supplies.  EU is just now one of many.  While EU is the largest, it has dwindled and is becoming less important, thus it would have been in Russias best interest to actually tell Germany to sort its own mess out.

    As stated here: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/129172/

    EU's supply of LNG, 20% of it comes from Russia when American is 13% as is currently.  So in reality, if the EU need it so damn bad, they can increase purchase of Russian LNG which is more expensive and means more money for Russian shipbuilding industry along with the LNG plants, so it creates even more jobs for Russia.  The pandering to EU is pathetic.

    Simply put, Russia should let EU handle Ukraine, not Russia.  As well, tell them that since they owe a recognized $3B to Russia, then they will cancel the $3B owed to Ukraine and thus not give them a single kopek.  But they handed over $3B while Ukraine still owes Russia $3B.

    And yes, completely, they dont need European market anymore.  It isn't the demand anymore.  It is Asia.  Russia has an easier time negotiating contracts with the fucking Turks than they do with Ukrainians or Germans.  That should say a lot.  Then again, Turkey knows all too well how Europeans fuck them over.

    Russia needs to show a spine and now sue the Swiss pipe laying company and Germany over the delay of the Nord Stream 2.  Swiss company broke a contract so now it should compensate Russia entirely.  Germany over demanding to use Ukraine while Ukraine failed to pay the debt.  They can claim under pressure.

    In a sane world the lawyers would be able to find some liability from the Swiss and the Germans. But we are dealing with international contracts and relations which
    are fuzzy at best. So the western contract-breaking clowns can wiggle their way out. That is why Russia needs to act according to reality and not according to
    fantasy delusion. There is no such thing as international law. It is the law of jungle (a type of common law) where might makes right. So Russia should have been
    conducting all of its business with the NATO west in the necessary fashion: control all the key parameters and risks. All the pandering and acting as if there
    is such a thing as a gentleman's word (remember Gorby and the promise by NATzO not to expand east) is just retarded and inexcusable.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 05/01/20, 01:59 am

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:It isn't just China, its also Turkey, Japan, Korea, etc too that Russia has long term contracts with for gas supplies.  EU is just now one of many.  While EU is the largest, it has dwindled and is becoming less important, thus it would have been in Russias best interest to actually tell Germany to sort its own mess out.

    As stated here: https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/129172/

    EU's supply of LNG, 20% of it comes from Russia when American is 13% as is currently.  So in reality, if the EU need it so damn bad, they can increase purchase of Russian LNG which is more expensive and means more money for Russian shipbuilding industry along with the LNG plants, so it creates even more jobs for Russia.  The pandering to EU is pathetic.

    Simply put, Russia should let EU handle Ukraine, not Russia.  As well, tell them that since they owe a recognized $3B to Russia, then they will cancel the $3B owed to Ukraine and thus not give them a single kopek.  But they handed over $3B while Ukraine still owes Russia $3B.

    And yes, completely, they dont need European market anymore.  It isn't the demand anymore.  It is Asia.  Russia has an easier time negotiating contracts with the fucking Turks than they do with Ukrainians or Germans.  That should say a lot.  Then again, Turkey knows all too well how Europeans fuck them over.

    Russia needs to show a spine and now sue the Swiss pipe laying company and Germany over the delay of the Nord Stream 2.  Swiss company broke a contract so now it should compensate Russia entirely.  Germany over demanding to use Ukraine while Ukraine failed to pay the debt.  They can claim under pressure.

    In a sane world the lawyers would be able to find some liability from the Swiss and the Germans.   But we are dealing with international contracts and relations which
    are fuzzy at best.   So the western contract-breaking clowns can wiggle their way out.    That is why Russia needs to act according to reality and not according to
    fantasy delusion.   There is no such thing as international law.   It is the law of jungle (a type of common law) where might makes right.   So Russia should have been
    conducting all of its business with the NATO west in the necessary fashion: control all the key parameters and risks.   All the pandering and acting as if there
    is such a thing as a gentleman's word (remember Gorby and the promise by NATzO not to expand east) is just retarded and inexcusable.


    100% agree.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on 05/01/20, 03:55 am





    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on 05/01/20, 05:49 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on 05/01/20, 05:02 am

    old video that resulted in nothing. Zelensky is just another idiot pretending to look like he has even a remote idea what he is doing. A real comedian.

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