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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Dec 21, 2019 3:20 am

    update:
    https://www.rbc.ru/business/19/12/2019/5dfba6149a794741cafb9c00

    https://www.rbc.ru/politics/21/12/2019/5dfd50909a7947e7984b6cf3
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:54 pm

    GarryB wrote:Personally I think Putin has made a mistake in recognising Kiev as the legitimate leadership in the Ukraine, why recognise a foreign financed illegal coup with a lot of war crimes that need investigation.

    Having said that using the gas pipes in the Ukraine will probably be necessary to meet the requirements of its EU customers... what they should be saying is that if you don't want to cooperate, if you want to interfere and even steal gas going to other customers then the gas pipes going through the Ukraine will never take Russian gas again no matter what assurances you make and we will simply supply our EU customers with LNG at higher cost to them and no transit fees to you.

    You are fucking the golden goose to death... it seems without mains pressure of transit gas their own internal gas pipe network wont work on its own so it doesn't even matter how much gas they currently have...

    Basically Russia had to do it. There is not enough capacity in Europe's north south pipelines to cope with south/east Europe's gas needs without either Ukraine's pipelines or TurkStream. The later won't be extended up into the EU in Austria for a while, at that point all bets are off.

    Russia does not let its customers down if it can avoid it.

    This is win win for Russia. It keeps the money flowing in, possibly in Euros not $, plays very well in Brussels with the new EU Commission (who will probably be footing some of the bill) and in Washington by not adding to the Ukraine shit going down there.

    Another good strategic and diplomatic move by Russia.
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    Post  nero on Sat Dec 21, 2019 3:49 pm

    GarryB wrote:Personally I think Putin has made a mistake in recognising Kiev as the legitimate leadership in the Ukraine, why recognise a foreign financed illegal coup with a lot of war crimes that need investigation.

    Zelensky won the elections held in Ukraine. There is no reason not to recognize them out of petty spite as not talking to the Ukrainian government would bring no real benefit to either side.

    GarryB wrote:Having said that using the gas pipes in the Ukraine will probably be necessary to meet the requirements of its EU customers... what they should be saying is that if you don't want to cooperate, if you want to interfere and even steal gas going to other customers then the gas pipes going through the Ukraine will never take Russian gas again no matter what assurances you make and we will simply supply our EU customers with LNG at higher cost to them and no transit fees to you.

    That is essentially what Putin said in the conference. In addition to that, it's highly unlikely that the deal made is for the requested volumes by Ukraine. In fact, Gazprom officials has already talked about this, that they are indeed happy to continue to use Ukraine as a transit country, though for a much smaller amount of volume than previously.




    It is very likely that Russia will pay Ukraine via Eurobonds and it will effectively solve an issue for both sides as neither would have seen the money otherwise. It is hard to further comment on the 'deal' because we do not yet know the full text. We only know the duration (5-year contract, Ukraine wanted 10-years) and that Gazprom officials stated that they d not need a 60-billion cubic meter / per transit deal (this is what Ukraine wanted).
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:17 pm

    Russian talking heads are claiming that there will be discussion of 10 year contracts only in 2024. I would not call the current
    deal a 5 year contract. It will be some sort of pay X and get Y agreement without any duration. Much like buying goods at
    a grocery store. Russia does not have any faith in Banderastan to make long term commitments. And the Kiev regime is
    actively making this happen.

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    Post  ATLASCUB on Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:19 pm

    The deal is out. Someone got bent. As expected.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:18 am

    ATLASCUB wrote:The deal is out. Someone got bent. As expected.

    Take a hike.

    You chicken little experts are a joke. If your retarded theory that all the decisions of the Russian government are grossly inadequate
    was valid, then Russia would have been carved up into a collection of small colonies run by NATO. So keep bleating your moronic
    doom and gloom. Putin is playing NATO like a violin.

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:05 am

    Zelensky won the elections held in Ukraine. There is no reason not to recognize them out of petty spite as not talking to the Ukrainian government would bring no real benefit to either side.

    The so called rebel regions that they have been shelling and bombing got a vote in that election did they?

    Were their votes included in the election results or were they ignored?

    If the so called rebel regions didn't get a vote why would or should they respect the results?

    Why reward the west by recognising their illegal interference in the elections of a neighbour of Russia... especially a violent military coup that killed a lot of people... most brutally with extreme violence and criminality coming from Kiev.

    But lets turn this around the Crimea voted to join Russia there is no reason for the west not to recognise that out of petty spite and imposing sanctions against Russia would bring no benefit for either side.... oops that is a fail isn't it?

    The deal is out. Someone got bent. As expected.

    There is no chance that Russia could supply the EU the gas it needs though the alternative routes it is developing in time, so either they can't supply the gas to fulfil their contracts or they need to make alternative arrangements.

    The reality is that money being paid from Russia to the Ukraine for transit fees is actually money from EU countries that actually pay the transit fees in the amount they pay for the gas they receive... it is no big deal to Russia at the end of the day, but the fundamental problem is that the Ukraine has a history of not paying its bills and stealing the product they are supposed to be delivering... for which the EU customers tend to blame Russia.

    Well Russia is developing alternatives including pipes that bypass the problem country, but also developing their capacity to produce LNG... and of course selling gas to better customers... ie China and potentially South Korea and Japan.

    If the Ukraine keeps acting like dicks they will find they are a liability and will end up with what they deserve.

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:45 am

    Russia is setting up the Kiev regime for a fall.   The clowns in Washington and their EU minions have been banking on Russia:

    1) Invading Ukraine to restore a loyal regime; which would give them a pretext for all sorts of anti-Russian action.

    2) Acting in a knee jerk fashion at the abuse it experiences both directly from the old NATO west and its new quislings
    in Eastern Europe.

    Russia has not fallen for this and NATO has been left dangling with nothing to do but huff and puff.   Cutting off transit
    now with both Turk-Stream and Nord-Stream II still not connected to the EU pipeline network would be moronic.   Russia
    is giving itself six months or longer to sort out the connections.   The only thing left for the anti-Russia planners is
    to have Banderastan siphon off critical amounts of gas.   But this time around there will be no sap chorus chanting
    "Russian blackmail".   It will be clear to all who is doing the stealing.  

    Also, recall that Banderastan is utterly f*cked if transit gas flow is stopped.  The existing pipeline system is not designed
    for autonomous operation and will have too little pressure to operate.   It is no small task to re-tune the system by
    closing off sections and rebuilding pumping stations to fix this issue.   And any such expensive fix will take over a year
    if not several years to do.    So Russia is not allowing the Kiev regime to use Ukrainians as a human shield.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:28 am

    To be honest I would love for Russia to say no deal... screw you... no compensation and no deal... if any gas is not sent through the pipes to the intended customer and is syphoned off and stored in the Ukraine then no gas will go through the Ukraine at all. We will liquify the gas ordered and deliver it by ship until the nord stream ii and south stream routes are connected and up an running... it will seriously effect supplies to Europe but they have reserves stored anyway and the extra price in energy they can bill the US or get out of the government of Ukraine... any more shit and we don't export gas to Europe any more, we will just liquify it and put it on ships and sell it around the world to anyone who wants to buy it... not ideal from our perspective, but we don't have an enormous number of choices.

    The problem there is that in place pipes and long term contracts offer better stability and reliability to the seller and the customer... but we are talking about energy... this is not a ship of rubbish sailing the world looking for some fuckwit to take it... there will be requests for it to come to various regions, though of course that would be limited to places with the onshore processing capacity... but then there is money in building those too... perhaps Cuba and Venezuela and a range of other countries will want cheap gas supplies to help grow their industries... it seems Germany doesn't want it bad enough.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:45 pm


    All you need to know about the gas deal:

    Russia and Ukraine Agree Gas Transit Deal, Kiev’s Earnings to Nosedive

    https://www.checkpointasia.net/russia-and-ukraine-agree-gas-transit-deal-volumes-to-be-more-than-halved/

    ...............The deal represents a big victory for Ukraine. Kyiv had been holding out for a 10-year agreement, whereas the Kremlin had offered only a one year deal in its previous public remarks. Zelenskiy said after the Paris summit that Kyiv was prepared to compromise and suggested a three-year deal, so a five-year is a significant advance.

    But Ukraine will also take a hit as the 65bcm guaranteed transit minimum is less than Ukraine flowed this year. Russia sent 87bcm to Europe via Ukraine in 2018 and will sent an estimated 90bcm in 2019, so the flows will be reduced to two thirds of current levels in 2020 and less than half in 2021 to 2025, falling by approximately the amount of capacity that will become available when Nord Stream 2 comes online, which can flow 55bcm a year. [Why this is a “victory” for Ukraine when Russia still needs some Ukrainian capacity which it has now secured is beyond me.]
    .........................
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    Post  ATLASCUB on Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:36 am

    May take your word on that. The Himalayas is on my bucket list.

    I could do with a small stipend from those transit fees Russia will be gifting to Ukrie oligarchs. I don't even need a cut on the $2.6 billions in extortion money that the Americans just extorted, through sheer will, for Ukrie oligarchs, on the backs of the Russian taxpayer. They offered Russia a deal they couldn't refuse, pay the extortion now, or pay more extortion later. lol1

    The propaganda bot army can spin it all they want.... someone's for sure laughing all their way to the bank.
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    Post  Odin of Ossetia on Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:29 pm

    Regular wrote:By the way,

    I am not talking about killing jews, Ukrainians talk about that yet they suckle on their toes. I am talking about taxing specifically their oligarchs so they would think twice about stealing. They shouldn't be able to take the money they earn in Russia to offshore accounts before paying lion's share to the state and people. Don't you fucking agree?!!!

    I am not talking about doing this white supremacist bullshit that happened not long ago
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/guatemala/11065563/Jewish-sect-expelled-from-Guatemalan-village-after-clashes-with-Mayan-villagers.html



    By the way, who controls Ukraine and their Nazis?

    I don't think I have enough ink in my keyboard to name Odessa and Kiev jewish mafian names who control Zelensky. Or Poro.

    Yarosh as well had jewish love and funding.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 3 B3oh_g10
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 3 0wt_nj10
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 3 Starda10

    Read more Antimaidan press to get simple understand who is the real enemy of Russians in this conflict. Ukrainians are retards, but they are poor retards.



    It looks like a fake Jew.

    They even exist in Poland now.

    http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html


    I think it has something to do with obtaining material benefits.

    Could also be a Ukrainian nationalist propaganda ploy.

    Notice like they show only a single bearded guy, and then they only show the Banderite UPA emblems with the Star of David prominently featuring on them, like it is an intentional propaganda stunt, but they could find only a single fake Jew to do it.


    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:07 am


    I could do with a small stipend from those transit fees Russia will be gifting to Ukrie oligarchs. I don't even need a cut on the $2.6 billions in extortion money that the Americans just extorted, through sheer will, for Ukrie oligarchs, on the backs of the Russian taxpayer. They offered Russia a deal they couldn't refuse, pay the extortion now, or pay more extortion later. lol1

    The propaganda bot army can spin it all they want.... someone's for sure laughing all their way to the bank.

    The money the Ukraine gets in transit fees is money from the EU, not from Russia... it is the EU paying for gas supplies from Russia that is also paying any transit fees to deliver it to them... they don't have to make the gas, they just need to extract it and find a customer and deliver it... after those costs it is all profit.

    Russia wrote of tens of billions of dollars worth of cold war debt to countries like Cuba and others as well, because such a thing will get in the way of making money now, so writing off such debts makes sense most of the time....
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    Post  kvs on Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:26 pm

    GarryB wrote:

    I could do with a small stipend from those transit fees Russia will be gifting to Ukrie oligarchs. I don't even need a cut on the $2.6 billions in extortion money that the Americans just extorted, through sheer will, for Ukrie oligarchs, on the backs of the Russian taxpayer. They offered Russia a deal they couldn't refuse, pay the extortion now, or pay more extortion later. lol1

    The propaganda bot army can spin it all they want.... someone's for sure laughing all their way to the bank.

    The money the Ukraine gets in transit fees is money from the EU, not from Russia... it is the EU paying for gas supplies from Russia that is also paying any transit fees to deliver it to them... they don't have to make the gas, they just need to extract it and find a customer and deliver it... after those costs it is all profit.

    Russia wrote of tens of billions of dollars worth of cold war debt to countries like Cuba and others as well, because such a thing will get in the way of making money now, so writing off such debts makes sense most of the time....

    And such debts were never recoverable anyway. So there is utterly no purpose to keep them active as they just become a hindrance in diplomatic and economic terms.
    Getting rid of such defunct obligations is worth vastly more than their actual value. Also, Russia's economic model is not based on the parasite paradigm that is the
    case for the west. Colonial powers not only rape and plunder their colonies in the short term, they also plunder them with long term debt burdens. Russia would need
    to install quisling regimes first before any debt sponging could be deployed. Russia is not into regime change.

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    Post  ATLASCUB on Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:10 am

    Russia as the origin country and the one pumping and selling the gas is the ultimate decider. It decides which country(s) become transit countries and the pipe route. Stop the BS.

    The spins are weaker by the day. $5 billion or so in transit fees estimated between now and the deal's expiration date. The pressure tactics worked - all of them.

    Accept the inconvenient facts of geopolitics and business and move on. There is no moral pedestal to sit on.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:29 am

    ATLASCUB wrote:Russia as the origin country and the one pumping and selling the gas is the ultimate decider. It decides which country(s) become transit countries and the pipe route. Stop the BS.

    The spins are weaker by the day. $5 billion or so in transit fees estimated between now and the deal's expiration date. The pressure tactics worked - all of them.

    Accept the inconvenient facts of geopolitics and business and move on. There is no moral pedestal to sit on.

    This I agree.  But until the other pipes are completed (Turkstream expansion and Nordstream 2), they had little choice.  I would say this was a loss for Russia in geopolitics for sure. One loss at least. Can't win all fights.  Even Putin himself said it was bullshit regarding the 2.9B they paid to naftogaz even though Ukraine owes Russia $3B and hasn't been paid yet.

    It's Russian gas for sure. And they should decide. But it was the energy oligarchs of Russia that forced the government's hand cause they don't want to lose out.  Finance ministry too. Since they want the high budget revenue gains from this.

    The deal should be that EU pays for it at the boarder between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine pays market price EU pays. The end.  But no, they gave in so they can continue to make a few extra bucks all the while the money gained by Ukraine will be used against Russia. So Russia gave up some security for a few bucks.

    So I agree with you on this Atlas. Russia blinked first.  And it was the wrong move.  Hopefully tougher people get control so they can stop funding their own enemy.
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:24 am

    Russia as the origin country and the one pumping and selling the gas is the ultimate decider.

    You would think so, but in any economic situation there is the provider and the consumer the only ultimate decision the provider can impose is to not sell the product which does not really serve their interests... after all gas and oil are not going to remain the valuable commodities they are today... in a few decades improvements in other technologies might mean only poor, low tech countries want oil for fuel.

    They are called negotiations because both sides get a say... something the EU or the US don't understand of course because they are used to dictating terms and imposing sanctions until the other side capitulates.

    It decides which country(s) become transit countries and the pipe route.

    Again not true... the physical realities shape where the pipes can or cannot go... south stream was supposed to go directly to Bulgaria but those idiots screwed the pooch and now Turkey benefits from their stupidity.

    The spins are weaker by the day.

    Of course a european wouldn't understand that is the definition of negotiations... each side starts with their ideal deal offer and gradually give up stuff they don't actually care about until you reach an agreement.

    $5 billion or so in transit fees estimated between now and the deal's expiration date.

    Yeah... 5 billion from the $100 billion they will be earning over the next five years selling gas to europe... paid for by the Europeans who pay for transport of the gas to their countries.

    The irony is that is what the US paid to break the Ukraine and it is also rather more than they are spending keeping their zombie ally alive while the asset strip it... we know of Hunter Biden funneling cash out of the country... or is he planning to retire there?

    The pressure tactics worked - all of them.

    But step back and look at what each side achieved. The Ukraine got a 5 year contract when the Russians only wanted a single year contract... well the fact is that sorting out alternative routes might take more than a year to sort out so that is a loss for the Ukraine because they wanted a ten year contract.

    The agreed transit volume seems to be rather less than it has been over the last two years, which means less income for the Ukraine so that is also a win for Russia.

    Compared with the likely penalties demanded by European customers for not getting their gas on time the three billion they are paying to the Ukraine is peanuts because the US would almost certainly stuck its nose in and suggested their alternative to punish Russia and lets admit together the Europeans are fucking stupid censored who would happily shoot themselves in the foot if they thought their might be some blood spill on Russia.

    So no, I don't think Russia lost in this at all. They are going to be able to provide gas to their customers in the EU at the minimum levels... the levels that were always going to have to go through the Ukraine anyway, and it also means after the next Ukrainian election they can decide whether they want to keep using the old neglected worn out pipes through the Ukraine or to start selling LNG or to build a couple of new pipelines along the route of the existing alternatives... or maybe after the 200th round of new economic sanctions they might just think the Europeans can find some other source of energy and route it all to Asia.

    Accept the inconvenient facts of geopolitics and business and move on. There is no moral pedestal to sit on.

    That is funny because the only one on a morality pedestal is you.

    But we have seen with Brexit what master negotiators the Europeans are... and such tantrums when they don't get their way.

    This I agree. But until the other pipes are completed (Turkstream expansion and Nordstream 2), they had little choice.

    That is not true. They could have cancelled negotiations... said the pipes in the Ukraine are probably worth 3 billion... keep them... we don't want them... and then start producing LNG and deliver it to the EU to make up for the gas not going over the existing network.

    This would have pissed off their customers and who knows what problems it would have caused.

    Doing it this way they will fulfil their contractual obligations to their customers and they are throwing the Ukrainians a small bone... how long before that money is stolen and goes to a swiss bank account...

    I would say this was a loss for Russia in geopolitics for sure. One loss at least. Can't win all fights. Even Putin himself said it was bullshit regarding the 2.9B they paid to naftogaz even though Ukraine owes Russia $3B and hasn't been paid yet.

    The EU or US couldn't have negotiated this deal... it is further evidence that Russia is a country you can do business with even if you fuck them over they will still try to satisfy their customers and do business... just further down the track don't expect any good will or bonuses... this is only business and they are not your friends if you stiff them like the Ukraine stiffs them. Of course treat them with respect and they can be good allies... can you in all honesty say the same about the EU or France or the US?

    So Russia gave up some security for a few bucks.

    What security... the Ukraine is no threat to Russia... it is a dying man in a coma in a hospital bed and some honest person has put a 1,000 dollar note in his pocket because he owed him something for the organs he gets when the patient dies... neither the patient nor his family will see that money after nurse America gives him his bed bath...

    So I agree with you on this Atlas. Russia blinked first. And it was the wrong move. Hopefully tougher people get control so they can stop funding their own enemy.

    They got a deal they can live with that allows them to complete other contracts to EU countries... get over it... that is what contract negotiators do.
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    Post  ATLASCUB on Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:21 pm

    Lol what are you talking about?

    First Putin agrees on a deal with Merkel to keep transit through Ukraine (a not so subtle blackmail), with the carrot being an "unbreakable commitment" on NordStream II. Here Germany again playing the double game they've played so well for the past 30+ years.

    But obviously the U.S could care less what agreement Russia and Germany reach. The U.S is completely against that carrot.

    So in order to reinsure that transit through Ukraine keeps on flowing the U.S has their stooge in Poland reduce the capacity of the Opal pipeline. This comes as an assurance measure in case Putin thinks he can pull a fast one and take it as an acceptable loss to lose transit through Ukraine - forcing the Germans to a take it or leave it situation at a more opportune time. Or, simply, to significantly improve the negotiating hand of Ukraine - as opposed to getting raped by Russia. With Opal capacity significantly reduced, the costs of cutting transit through Ukraine just went up. And there are more commitments with other countries as well, it's not just Germany... which compounds the issue.

    Then to double tap on that, the U.S puts NordStream II out of commission for another year give or take - from the resumption of pipe laying to the actual deliveries. Turkstream also got sanctioned as well and bound to hit a snag somewhere in the route (too many small, weak countries in the chain- one is bound to crack to pressure). Russia's plan to diversify their routes were quite significantly postponed. Enough to keep the zombified state known as Ukraine churning for a few more years, partly on Russia's dime....

    The Russians were boxed into continuing to supply through Ukraine. That was the negotiation. Not only that, they allowed once again for European law to govern the deals. The very same "laws" in courts that will fvck Russia with politically motivated rulings to the tune of billions.... with the threat of more lawsuits and billions in litigation. That was a nice negotiation as well.

    $2.6 billion payout to agree not to get extorted further in litigation on crooked courts. Good negotiation or a great example of good old extortion?

    More like a brilliant masterpiece of geopolitical pressure games by the Empire with their stooges at hand. Given their limited cards (no physical presence on the continent, no viable developed alternative to Russian supplies etc) they played a great game. They placed enough mines along the way to keep Russian progress at a trickle. That's without mentioning the fate of Southstream. This is exactly what containment means. Politics is the art of the possible after all. That's why the empire does these things... sometimes they fail... sometimes they succeed... sometimes a bit of both. If you don't try these tactics and strategies, you never get to find out.

    Yes Russia will make their money.... but how others want that money to be made, for the time being. My original critique being, Russia getting bent - which they did. My critique was not: Russia shouldn't make money or Russia failed to make money. Like I said before, politics is the art of the possible. The "negotiations" could have taken many different colors (provided different chess moves took place beforehand on the chessboard). These "negotiations" don't exist in a vacuum with fixed variables. These negotiations come about and take into consideration a large range of chess moves made years prior. Reality is what it's now... so whatever...

    Do keep spinning Garry. After all, that's your job on practically every thread.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:37 pm

    Garry, even Putin himself said it was bullshit that the European courts gave the right to Naftogaz because it clearly stated "Ukraine's current conditions cannot pay for it" to which Putin said "so we have to pay for Ukraine to survive?". This is Novak and his oligarchs that are dancing to the west and Europe's tune and this just showed that Putin doesn't have full control. Or he has given too much control to them in negotiations.

    And ATLAS is right, these are same European kangaroo courts that Russia bitched about but still follows even though it goes contrary to Russia's constitution.

    Follow what Russians themselves say. Not what talking pins in government say. Average Russian is actually really pissed off with these decisions. Most feel that it's their gas so why bother keeping Ukraine alive? They can sell gas to China and rest of Asia and now Turkey. While EU can then buy year by year through existing pipelines and LNG minus by Ukraine. But no, the Russians got played very hard here. This was a political failure from Russia. This was their chance to stand firm in their belief to have finally backed down.

    As KVS said before, gas sales isn't that important anymore to overall economy. So they should have shown some balls at least. Most Russians want that. They are pissed off with this saying that this makes them look weak and unable to protect their own resources.

    You really are trying to spin this hard but eventually you will acknowledge this failure. Russians have. Putin has. Even some in government has with one deputy prime minister saying they had little choice. So yeah.
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    Post  kvs on Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:41 pm

    One detail that displeases me much is that Gazprom didn't move their pipe laying ship from the far east to the Baltic ahead of time.
    It is not as if they had no idea that the USA would pull the sort of stunt that it pulled. Even if the USA had not imposed its sanctions
    racket, the cost of relocating the ship would have been small and the move would itself likely have served to remove any teeth
    from US sanctions and thereby prevented them. Instead, Gazprom (and Russia) is now caught with its pants down and has to wait
    over two months to relocate the ship.

    Even though I can see the realpolitik benefit of paying the ludicrous "fine", I disagree with it having been paid. It is an obvious
    political dirty trick since nobody on the planet can demand extra price discounts based on their poverty level. Nobody. At
    best they can seek government welfare or charity.

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    Post  GarryB on Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:56 am

    First Putin agrees on a deal with Merkel to keep transit through Ukraine (a not so subtle blackmail), with the carrot being an "unbreakable commitment" on NordStream II. Here Germany again playing the double game they've played so well for the past 30+ years.

    But no matter what happened even if both new pipelines were fully completed right now and ready for full capacity Russia would still need to send some gas through the Ukraine... there was no way around it.

    Putin is smart... he knows the real US objection to cheap Russian gas is that they want to sell their own product there... it is Patriot vs S-400 again and they are losing again.

    The US doesn't give a shit about the Ukraine... Trump has already said as much to the new leader of the Ukraine.

    Of course the US is not Trump... they like the problems in the Ukraine because it is a problem for Russia being on their border and all.

    The more conflict everywhere else is good for them and their war engine.

    But obviously the U.S could care less what agreement Russia and Germany reach. The U.S is completely against that carrot.

    The US could care less about the Ukraine... in fact from an American perspective, Kiev stealing gas and cutting it off from Europe and Kiev and Europe freezing and having to make emergency plans to get gas from some where else would be an ideal result... they don't give a fuck about the Ukraine or europe... they want to sell product... and europe should understand that America needs their Euros more than Russia does... jobs and MAGA and all that crap.

    So in order to reinsure that transit through Ukraine keeps on flowing the U.S has their stooge in Poland reduce the capacity of the Opal pipeline. This comes as an assurance measure in case Putin thinks he can pull a fast one and take it as an acceptable loss to lose transit through Ukraine - forcing the Germans to a take it or leave it situation at a more opportune time. Or, simply, to significantly improve the negotiating hand of Ukraine - as opposed to getting raped by Russia. With Opal capacity significantly reduced, the costs of cutting transit through Ukraine just went up. And there are more commitments with other countries as well, it's not just Germany... which compounds the issue.

    Yeah, you seem to be suggesting that Putins goal is to cut gas to the Ukraine... it is the Ukraine cutting off Russia... not the other way around except in direct retaliation.

    Enough to keep the zombified state known as Ukraine churning for a few more years, partly on Russia's dime....

    The Ukraine is dead... no amount of brain material fed to it will bring it back to life... the only thing coming to life with the 8 billion (3 plus 5) they will be getting will be a select few swiss bank accounts... when it is gone they will make up more shit... but by the time the next contract is ready for renewal alternative pipelines will be online and if they want to stop all gas through the Ukraine then it becomes an option... in fact it might be the only solution left to the current deadlock if it is still in effect in 5 years time.

    [qutoe]The Russians were boxed into continuing to supply through Ukraine. That was the negotiation. Not only that, they allowed once again for European law to govern the deals. The very same "laws" in courts that will fvck Russia with politically motivated rulings to the tune of billions.... with the threat of more lawsuits and billions in litigation. That was a nice negotiation as well.

    $2.6 billion payout to agree not to get extorted further in litigation on crooked courts. Good negotiation or a great example of good old extortion?[/quote]

    Well actually no... did you not read it?

    It states they will pay the 2.6 billion but that is it... all other lawsuits and court actions are dropped... all asset seizures are null... so I would welcome a seizure in two or three years time because then they can rip up this agreement and close off their ends of the pipes going through the Ukraine.

    More like a brilliant masterpiece of geopolitical pressure games by the Empire with their stooges at hand. Given their limited cards (no physical presence on the continent, no viable developed alternative to Russian supplies etc) they played a great game.

    Really?

    Seems to me that Russia is getting what it wants too... no more court related bullshit, a clear agreement on reduced transit levels for five years, so they can continue to sell gas to europe over existing pipes in a hostile country... if we were talking about the US piping UAE gas via an intact Assad run Syria would you claim Assad won or the US won by throwing peanuts to Syria in return for making money selling gas to Europe...

    They placed enough mines along the way to keep Russian progress at a trickle. That's without mentioning the fate of Southstream. This is exactly what containment means. Politics is the art of the possible after all. That's why the empire does these things... sometimes they fail... sometimes they succeed... sometimes a bit of both. If you don't try these tactics and strategies, you never get to find out.

    They will sell gas to you but don't think they don't notice what censored you are being... they are setting up LNG production and building gas tankers for a reason...

    Do keep spinning Garry. After all, that's your job on practically every thread.

    No, the spin doctors are western specialists... everyone has interests and interpretation of events... but it is strange you keep trying to make this about Putin personally... almost like a personal agenda to demonise him or humiliate him... which has been the wests policy since he started making a difference... remember Russia is both the most dangerous threat to the world and on the verge of collapse... ironic because the west often projects its own image on its opponents and rivals to make them look like the problem... does that mean they know the end is nigh?

    Garry, even Putin himself said it was bullshit that the European courts gave the right to Naftogaz because it clearly stated "Ukraine's current conditions cannot pay for it" to which Putin said "so we have to pay for Ukraine to survive?". This is Novak and his oligarchs that are dancing to the west and Europe's tune and this just showed that Putin doesn't have full control. Or he has given too much control to them in negotiations.

    They needed a gas transit agreement to sell the gas they are contracted to deliver to EU countries, for the price of 2.6 billion all the other legal issues are gone... they would probably spend more than that in lawyers fees... those censored charge $500 per hour each...

    And ATLAS is right, these are same European kangaroo courts that Russia bitched about but still follows even though it goes contrary to Russia's constitution.

    Russia has no history of demanding customers follow Russian rules... why start now?

    Their territory, their rules... when it becomes unbearable they can stop the flow and just send it all to Turkey and the EU can squabble over prices and contracts with Turkey...

    Average Russian is actually really pissed off with these decisions. Most feel that it's their gas so why bother keeping Ukraine alive? They can sell gas to China and rest of Asia and now Turkey. While EU can then buy year by year through existing pipelines and LNG minus by Ukraine. But no, the Russians got played very hard here. This was a political failure from Russia. This was their chance to stand firm in their belief to have finally backed down.

    Gas is not going to be valuable forever... selling it now makes sense and selling it to Europe even more so, because the US clearly wants that market.

    The money from transit fees is nothing close to keeping the Ukraine alive... the Ukraine is broken... that money will disappear from the country faster than an icecube in the middle of an Australian bush fire in a 45 degree heatwave...

    As KVS said before, gas sales isn't that important anymore to overall economy. So they should have shown some balls at least. Most Russians want that. They are pissed off with this saying that this makes them look weak and unable to protect their own resources.

    You mean like its ability to negotiate in the middle east makes it weak too... it should just be bombing people and imposing sanctions and tariffs like a tough super power?

    Perhaps we have a different understanding of the definition of weak.

    You really are trying to spin this hard but eventually you will acknowledge this failure. Russians have. Putin has. Even some in government has with one deputy prime minister saying they had little choice. So yeah.

    Again, by what definition are you applying to the words failure?

    Failure would be no deal. Failure would be Russia not being able to deliver the gas they are contracted to deliver to the EU. Failure would be the EU collectively stating that because of the failure Russia needs to pay a fine of 20 billion for failing to deliver promised gas supplies in a timely manner and that that money will be paid to the US to provide alternative gas supplies and also to the Ukraine to support them in these difficult times.

    Nothing like this has occurred. They got a contract period they are happy with, and they got the minimum gas transit levels to cover the shortfall the delays in the alternative routes will create... they got pretty much what they needed from a hostile country that blames them for invasion with no reason to continue to have relations at all... they cut all the products they sell to Russia... components for ships and vehicles and aircraft and rockets and missiles...

    One detail that displeases me much is that Gazprom didn't move their pipe laying ship from the far east to the Baltic ahead of time.

    No reason to move it if you don't have to.... I doubt it is something you send around the place just in case.

    It is not as if they had no idea that the USA would pull the sort of stunt that it pulled. Even if the USA had not imposed its sanctions
    racket, the cost of relocating the ship would have been small and the move would itself likely have served to remove any teeth
    from US sanctions and thereby prevented them. Instead, Gazprom (and Russia) is now caught with its pants down and has to wait
    over two months to relocate the ship.

    Amusing... how much money should they spend and how much time should they waste just in case America does something stupid and irrational?

    If they moved assets round as you suggest they would have bigger problems than the US... that would be very wasteful... besides who is to say it is not being used or needed in the Far East?

    Wouldn't it just make more sense to say fuck europe... you can wait for the pipeline to be finished... they are used to delays on projects... they will understand I am sure. In the mean time keep it in the east and build pipelines to countries that want Russian gas and wont try to screw Russia over it.

    If there are gas shortfalls offer LNG via tanker, and if they take any action just refer all their claims and tantrums to the US.

    Even though I can see the realpolitik benefit of paying the ludicrous "fine", I disagree with it having been paid. It is an obvious
    political dirty trick since nobody on the planet can demand extra price discounts based on their poverty level. Nobody. At
    best they can seek government welfare or charity.

    Russian assets all over the world have been at risk of petty seizures and being held for ransom... this eliminates that... in fact I would love them to try it on because it will mean this agreement becomes null and void... hopefully by then the pipelines will be up and running and they can decline to renew the contract at all.

    It all depends on the situation in the Ukraine and whether nazis are still in control... as usual the people will suffer, but you get the leaders you deserve... which must be a painful saying for French, British, and American members...
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:55 am

    Disrupting the project by two or more months costs much more than relocating a pipe laying ship. Much more. And it is actually
    incompetent not to have a backup option on standby even under normal conditions let alone under conditions of sanctions terrorism.
    The US rhetoric and legislative action actually made their last sanctions round predictable. But Gazprom's management was
    too busy living up to the USSR level of incompetence.

    Russia actually pandered by giving the Swiss the pipe laying job. It was not a case of no ability to do it the job itself. Did they
    assume that pandering in this way would make them immune to sanctions terrorism? Seriously? Anyone with a functional brain
    would have pointed out the obvious risk to them.

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    Post  GarryB on Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:18 am

    Who said it is not doing something?

    They might already be using it for a job... besides if moving it there takes 2 months then it sounds rather more that lift the anchor and run the motor for a couple of days to get there... moving it there just in case sounds like a complete waste of energy and resources and MONEY on the off chance the Americans are this stupid/nasty.

    If there was no further delay then it wouldn't be annoying the Germans as much as it is... but the better question for my part would be... this is a big job... why wasn't this alternative Russian ship doing the job in the first place... like Iran I am wondering why they waste time and money on these european losers who back out at the last second... Denmark and France and now this company... I am sensing a pattern.

    At the end of the day it will get done, but I see this situation as a great excuse to demand a higher percentage of work to go to Russian companies over this deal and therefore less of the profit going to europe or elsewhere... and never consider this pipe laying organisation for any pipes laid in Russia related projects world wide ever again... even if it means spending a lot of money to create capability for a Russian company to do it...
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    Post  nero on Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:03 pm

    GarryB wrote:why wasn't this alternative Russian ship doing the job in the first place
    The only reason there are European companies involved in the Nord stream pipeline was because Germany asked the Russians to split responsibility.

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    Post  kvs on Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:06 pm

    nero wrote:
    GarryB wrote:why wasn't this alternative Russian ship doing the job in the first place
    The only reason there are European companies involved in the Nord stream pipeline was because Germany asked the Russians to split responsibility.


    And Russia was under no obligation to give the filthy rich west any charity. Thanks to this pandering it has to eat Ukr sh*t.


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