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    Russian Economy General News: #10

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:59 am

    verkhoturye51 wrote:
    You need to innovate and I like where Russia is going with its high tech development.

    This development depends also on market size. The R&D and production is expensive, so economies of scale make it easier. When Russia started substituting foreign chips with domestic ones, it gave a boost for the development of 32 nm Elbrus. So halting imports of western chips could speed up the development of 16 nm and help domestic producers reach 7 nm standards asap.

    The question is, can the government do this without causing a major short-term damage to the economy. Are the companies that rely on foreign chips enough resistant and diversified to survive the shortage? Despite possible recession, having domestic development and possibly even production on par with Intel would allow them to compete on virtually any market. But to be honest, even winning domestic market would be an achievement, unimaginable right now.

    Issue is it would hurt economy as major manufacturers operate in Russia like HP. Kraftway is Russia's largest brand of computer maker (it's like Dell) were they even manufacture their own motherboards for Intel socket 1151 of chipset 170 if I'm correct. So there needs to be a fine transition and only real method is ministry of industry and trade constant investment.
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:41 pm

    Well how about being smart and put a 50-100% tariff on imported computer chips and use the money generated from the sales of foreign chips in Russia to fund increased domestic production to meet the likely growing demand...

    My understanding is that development is more of a problem and Mikron and others seem to be lagging some 5-6 years behind industry leaders. One way to close the gap would be to increase the market with tariffs. The company will then easily find the funds in banks, as they'd have entire Russian market to supply. To problem is that this is like halting import of food so you can become self sufficient in 5 years. The only problem is that people can't starve in the meantime. The original article that inspired my thinking was suggesting that should the US forbid Intel from exporting to Russia, this would have also positive long-term effects of Russians catching up with the West in few years.

     So there needs to be a fine transition and only real method is ministry of industry and trade constant investment.

    The import substitution has given a decisive boost to this industry and they became big players after developing 32 nm chip last year. So there must've been some hidden potential and knowledge, that couldn't have been exploited beforehand. So the idea is correct, but they should get even stricter with substitution. Once they develop 7 nm for military, they can sell it to civilian companies.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:31 pm

    Well, it is becoming different. Military electronics are very sensitive and most military processors are 90nm and higher. The whole 7nm and what not wont be seen for military use anytime soon or at all. Instead its all civilian products and HPC's for industrial needs. That is where Russia is really pushing for - the HPC market and for industrial use. Majority of Russian MiC industries are pushing hard for civilian production and so the investment in the mic will end up paying off in the long run anyway.

    But what is interesting is the import substitution and how much has been given. Check this out:

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/119185/

    In 2018 invested in import substitution 637,5 billion rubles

    In 2018 the industry in the creation of the Russian analogues of foreign production in total invested almost 637,5 billion rubles.

    Of these, the state has invested about 70 billion rubles.

    So the private industry is actually the one spearheading import substitution. At least in financial sense.
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    Post  Austin on Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:48 pm

    GDP per capita (PPP) growth, since 2008.

    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1118899486443606016
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    Post  kvs on Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:20 pm

    Austin wrote:GDP per capita (PPP) growth, since 2008.

    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1118899486443606016

    Such graphs only confirm very simple mathematics: it takes only a small by absolute standards increase from a
    small base to get a large percentage.

    So going from $1 per capita GDP to $2 per capita GDP is 100% but does not amount the country existing poverty.

    By the same token for a middle development country like Russia, getting a 25% per capita GDP increase is substantial
    since it amounts to $5000 per capita. Since Russian real incomes have been actually higher than the official
    GDP increases since 2008, the $5000 per capita is actually too small for the actual average income per capita change:

    1.06^(2019-2007) = 2.01 or 100% income increase

    But the average 6% I use above is actually much smaller since incomes were going up over 10% per year for a large number
    of the last 12 years.

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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:49 pm

    Industrial computers are an obvious first choice, but I wouldn't underestimate the military. It should be highly classified what chips are used in platforms like Su-57 or air defence systems that need to search, track and guide enormous number of missiles and interceptors. I assume the military wants to increase this number ever more, so that the adversary will have to use ever larger salvos to overwhelm the systems. So increasing the capability of electro elements that are a bottleneck in the system is a way to go.

    Here it says Russia plans to invest a total of 2500 bn rubles to the import substitution https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-economy-import-substitution-idUSKCN0RV4W920151001

    Regardless, private investors should have even higher interest to produce 7 nm chips, but my point was that as long as the state doesn't give them the Russian market, they can't really do anything.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:12 am

    Pak Fa actually uses MCST elbrus 4SM processor with quad core VLIW Elbrus E2K architecture with 2 (or 4, depending on who says what) Elvees DSP cores.

    It's a rather very powerful CPU and it's heavily shielded to deal with high radiation. It was recently confirmed that the two Corporations (MCST and Sukhoi) worked together on this as they officially mentioned the real time operating system is being used (not Elbrus OS but something else). The funding of such architecture and processor was done via Ministry of Industry and Trade. It is used for military and the Elbrus 1S is used for embedded systems while 8S and SM (one uses DDR3 other uses DDR4 memory) is being used for workstation enviornment with apparently a MiC or a research company (not specific who) is building a HPC setup using 4x per system of these Elbrus 8S processors.
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:52 am

    All 2014 28 nm tech, speaking in Russian terms. It's the best they had until Elbrus 8SV last year. For improved Su-57 with izdeliye 30 it wouldn't surprise me if they updated the CPU with 16 nm Elbrus 16S, too.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:16 pm


    Russia’s Latest Bond Auction Sets New Record

    By bne IntelliNews

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/19/russias-latest-bond-auction-sets-new-record-a65307
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    Post  kvs on Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:09 pm

    The average western media consumer has no clue that general purpose CPUs are not the only thing that matters for processing.
    Custom DSP are vastly faster and do the job that needs to be done. Aircraft, tanks, rockets, radar systems, are not general
    purpose computing platforms but extremely customized function platforms. The only reason to use a general purpose CPU in
    any of these systems is as some sort of global manager that allows for easier integration and things such as diagnostics and
    tweaking of parameters. You do not need an IBM Power 9 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/POWER9) for this task. Even a CPU
    like the Cyrix 6x86 from the 1990s would be good enough.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:41 pm

    kvs wrote:The average western media consumer has no clue that general purpose CPUs are not the only thing that matters for processing.
    Custom DSP are vastly faster and do the job that needs to be done.   Aircraft, tanks, rockets, radar systems, are not general
    purpose computing platforms but extremely customized function platforms.    The only reason to use a general purpose CPU in
    any of these systems is as some sort of global manager that allows for easier integration and things such as diagnostics and
    tweaking of parameters.    You do not need an IBM Power 9 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/POWER9) for this task.   Even a CPU
    like the Cyrix 6x86 from the 1990s would be good enough.  

    And this is why Russia has moved to a multicore structure were they even have DSP cores built on to the chip along with standard VLIW based chip. It is all round multipurpose for a jet, radar system, etc.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:43 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    kvs wrote:The average western media consumer has no clue that general purpose CPUs are not the only thing that matters for processing.
    Custom DSP are vastly faster and do the job that needs to be done.   Aircraft, tanks, rockets, radar systems, are not general
    purpose computing platforms but extremely customized function platforms.    The only reason to use a general purpose CPU in
    any of these systems is as some sort of global manager that allows for easier integration and things such as diagnostics and
    tweaking of parameters.    You do not need an IBM Power 9 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/POWER9) for this task.   Even a CPU
    like the Cyrix 6x86 from the 1990s would be good enough.  

    And this is why Russia has moved to a multicore structure were they even have DSP cores built on to the chip along with standard VLIW based chip. It is all round multipurpose for a jet, radar system, etc.

    It is easier to rad harden DSPs since they do not need 10 nm scale lithography. The two core Elbrus plus two core DSP package is likely manufactured
    with 180 nm lithography. For rad hardening "inferior old tech" is the only solution. DSPs serving custom functions can outperform any general purpose
    CPU even if they use several generations old lithography. And rad hardening is not just for space applications. You can bet your last penny that
    during any real war every dirty trick in the book will be used to win, including setting off nuclear devices as part of EM warfare.
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:35 pm

    It's a slow day.
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    Post  Vann7 on Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:29 am

    verkhoturye51 wrote: I was trying to say that Russia doesn't have to develop industry of high tech electronics, because they have so many other industries... and it would be a waste of resources to try to catch up with western corporations, that are subsidized by their governments of course.



    And i completely disagree with that..
    Russia own nations existence ,depends of the ability of their Government to PROJECT POWER
    in the power ,to project that RUssia IS BETTER , that United States.. in other words...
    Russia existence depends on Russia ability to destroy United States influence in the world..
    and what is the most powerful way Americans project Influence in the world ?
    It is with their Soybeans market?  it is with their Tomatoes exports?  maybe it is with their Mcdonals
    that nobody can leave without them?  NO..

    US project its Power ,its leadership ,its influence with their HIGH TECH modern
    and  innovative Economy , their Silicon Valley industry.. Is what project Americans power in the
    world as the #1 market for technology ... They own Digital Business , Internet , they own the Computer Market , the entire cycle from computer Hardware to Software , is dominated by them.
    And their entertainment industry.. All this things whether you like entertainment or not...
    You can't deny it highly influential in the world.. the American entertainment industry..
    even though ,im not a fan of Star wars movies ,there is a huge fan base of that world wide ,including
    in Russia ,and  In Ukraine ,Lenin Statues were replaced by Darth Vader . In other words , Russia culture Influence NO ONE outside Russian borders.. while Americans influence the Entire Planet..

    So this is the BIG huge PROBLEM that Russia have.. That Russia lacks of the necessary
    Leadership ,the necessary Influence , to break away the American empire.. and i will say , Putin is the core of that problem. Because he is backwards President.. he focus in the Past.. praise the past,doing things the old way..   Russia economy is not different that AFrican nations economies..
    That is economies based on Commodities.. things that produce Mother earth..   mining and agriculture and oil and gas..  *vast majority* of Russia economy is modeled in the same way ,
    third world nations in AFrica and latin American runs their economy..  So Russia needs a President
    with a much more modern thinking ,that understand ,that the only way Russia can fight US ,without risking a world war 3 , is by defeating US innovative high tech and modern digital economy.. which is
    what give US the biggest influence in the world.. defeating US in space too.. completely , develop
    a much more ambitious space program too...  

    Remember that CHINA was an economy that depended on Agriculture and fishing just 20 years ago..
    This is the same time Putin was in Power , China totally transformed its economy ,a 180 degrees change.. and today ,they challenge American Sillicon Valley..  Where is Putin answer to US silicon Valley or US space explorations?    he is busy praising meaningless medals in sports and agriculture records..   No



    But also China is MORE agressive today than Russia in SPACE... so there is no excuse
    for MR Putin ,to not be more agressive.. he is doing all backwards.. reduced budget of Russia space program in HALF ,while multiplied by 1 million their spending in Bullshit sports.. that give Russia NOTHING ,ZERO , no gain at all ,in the world ,No leadership at all . don't damage US business , or US Influence .. Putin's Sports and victory Parades are just a stupid distraction ,that influence none
    of Russia enemies ,doesn't make Russia either to earn Respect in the world either... China earns respect with their Modern Advanced business.. Putin what he earns is DISRESPECT.. with his weaknes ,and outdated vision of Russia development.. is time to put behind the past soviet and tzarist era..
    and transform Russia economy into a real World Leader ,that leads the way into the Future . not what he is doing.. Promoting the old traditions .  Russia needs a leader that looks to the future not the past.. and seek to reinvent Russia Economy ,into something really challenging . Is doing the difficult
    things , doing the impossible and innovative things ,is how Russia will earn Respect and will break
    US world leadership..and influence in the world..

    again this is not about Money .. is about BIG Influence..is about world leadership.. about doing things that others have NOT done before for being too difficult for them...Is about grabbing people attention with your nation superior development.. Nobody give a shit of Putin agriculture records in Wheat..
    But if Putin Get humans in the mars before Americans in few years.. that will naturally grab the entire world attention .. and humiliate Americans.. This iswhat is all about , Projecting real Power and leadership..
    .. Saudi Arabia have a lot of money ,same with Qatar ,that will host next olympics,but their influence is zero.. people take their money but nobody is hoping to unite with Saudi Arabia or Qatar that have near no poverty in his country .and more lamborginis that any other nation in the world . that average salary in Qatar is
    130 thousands US$ dollars per year of middle class..  Is not a race for money , but a race for LEADERSHIP and race for Influence ,where Russia needs to compete..with American.. to destroy
    their empire without firing a bullet.. by just defeating their most influential business in the world..
    and no business influence more in the world ,than modern high technology ,than Entertainment ,and Space exploration.. and if all 3 combined , even better.. Space tourism to the moon anyone ?  oh noo too difficult...  No will say some.. it will be only difficult if you have Mediocre Leaders ,that waste Hundred of Billions of Euros in meaningless sports promotion and recreational parks.. in Russia.. and in promoting the good old past.. activities..
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:44 am

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/119266/

    Yalta Forum - 215B Rubles (3.35B USD) agreements signed.
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:09 pm


    Russia own nations existence ,depends of the ability of their Government to PROJECT POWER
    in the power ,to project that RUssia IS BETTER

    Wow, ok man it's not all that bad I guess. They're sending people into space after all...the only country to have been doing so constantly since Gagarin. Their technology is great in some areas, where they need it. Like missiles in the military, rocket engines in astronautics or NPPs in physics. But you can't develop high tech in all areas. The US also outsourced the most advanced chip production to Taiwan. Don't get me started with their car industry, that has been without perspective since Iacocca days.

    But when it comes to influence it all begins and ends with money. There's hardly better way to influence public opinion about you in a country, than investing few billions in factories. So that people know that that country is giving bread on their table. There are some creative ways to do it asymmetrically and achive a lot with few money. Spreading information via internet is like this. But in the end, I doubt bigger influence is all that Russia wants. Perhaps they just want to live in peace, without being surrounded by hundreds of foreign military bases, waiting for WWIII. And that's what the "grand Putin's endgame" could be all about.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:18 pm

    Your talking to vann. A guy/girl/bot who has little to nothing to say but says it in a 7 page documentary.
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:00 pm

    It's ok, he's brought up influence. Probably most important thing at foreign relations/geopolitics and yet there are so few ways to measure it. It gets too little attention, especially on military forum like this. Every weapon is created 50 % for actual use but 50 % for deterrence/signalling/influencing others.
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    Post  slasher on Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:41 am

    Interesting read: Russia Ditches Income Data That Has Slumped for Five Years

    Incomes have declined since 2014 amid a rise in retail sales, prompting many analysts to question the reliability of the underlying data. Moscow-based VTB Capital published a three-page research note earlier this month criticizing the outdated methodology and recommending that economists disregard the income data entirely.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:27 am

    verkhoturye51 wrote:It's ok, he's brought up influence. Probably most important thing at foreign relations/geopolitics and yet there are so few ways to measure it. It gets too little attention, especially on military forum like this. Every weapon is created 50 % for actual use but 50 % for deterrence/signalling/influencing others.

    Well yes, general standard everywhere.

    But just warning you vanns particular interesting posting history on here.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:17 pm

    How far Russia has come!

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/119372/

    Started exporting milk to China

    "The container with the first batch of milk left and went to China. We expect that in the near future he will arrive in China, and then the first pack of milk, the delivery of which is organized with the direct participation of the trade mission, will be the Chinese consumer", — said inulin. "This is a historic event happening right now", he said, however, the question about the details said that we should wait for the arrival of the first shipment into the territory of the PRC.

    In November last year, the Ministry of agriculture of Russia reported that Russia and China signed a Protocol on veterinary and sanitary requirements during mutual supplies of frozen poultry meat and dairy products. Exports to China allowed the Russian poultry breeders, producers of cow, goat and sheep milk and products from it. In particular, we are talking about condensed and not condensed cream buttermilk, yoghurt, kefir, whey, butter, cheese, curd and casein.

    The first deliveries of milk to the Chinese market is expected before the scheduled date, which was scheduled for summer this year.


    As previously said, the Rosselkhoznadzor supply of dairy products will be subject to cross-functioning systems to assure that raw milk produced from healthy animals, and the origin of dairy products is tracked to manufacturers and farms. Producers of exported dairy and poultry products must be registered with the competent authorities of the parties respectively. Russian company — the Main customs office of China, Chinese exporters must be approved by the Rosselkhoznadzor.

    Wasn't that long ago Russia was a net importer of Milk (dairy altogether). Now they are exporting it.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:42 pm

    Putin is confident that Russia will not be difficult to enter the top five most developed economies in the world.

    https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6371920

    “Regarding the fact that we occupy a worthy place among other industrial powers, is not an easy task, but in general it is absolutely solvable,” Putin said at a meeting with members of the Council of Lawmakers of the Russian Federation. He recalled that for Russia the task is to take the fifth place in the world in terms of the economy, in terms of purchasing power parity. He also stated that the Russian Federation now ranks sixth after China, the United States, India, Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany.


    well, overtaking Germany is fairly simple he should aim for Japan russia russia russia


    slasher wrote:Interesting read: Russia Ditches Income Data That Has Slumped for Five Years

    Incomes have declined since 2014 amid a rise in retail sales, prompting many analysts to question the reliability of the underlying data. Moscow-based VTB Capital published a three-page research note earlier this month criticizing the outdated methodology and recommending that economists disregard the income data entirely.

    interesting indeed. It would be cool some day to see corrected results Razz Razz Razz
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    Post  Arrow on Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:00 pm

    Probably now Russia is the fifth economy in the world. Russia was almost equally recently with Germany economy.
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    Post  Hole on Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:56 pm

    The Chinese love russian agricultural products. They know it is "clean" and healthy.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:39 am

    The Ministry of Communications and Mass Media of Russia: the share of domestic software in government procurement reached 65%


    04.24.2019 [14:55], Andrey Krupin

    Since 2015, the share of domestic software in public procurement has increased on average from 20 to 65 percent. Such data are presented on the website of the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation.

    The Ministry of Communications of the Russian Federation is confident that this trend will continue. According to the department’s forecasts, by 2024, 70% of software purchased by state-owned companies will be Russian (at least 45% in 2019), and this figure will reach an impressive 90% in government.

    https://servernews.ru/986429





    Arrow wrote:Probably now Russia is the fifth economy in the world. Russia was almost equally recently with Germany economy.

    I guess this depends on year Smile last couple of years there were Germany most of times ad once or twice Russia. GDP PPP is very close though. My educated guess would be to be significantly larger then Germany. Ideally more then Japan. But this will be unlikely till 2024

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