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    Russian Economy General News: #10

    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:46 am

    @Vann dude - let Russians decide and join run for president of Russian Federation, if you cannto you always canbe famous economist, columnist or recognized political scientist who influences peoples minds. What about that?

    if you believe in what any moron warmonger in US says you're doomed. So fr Indi ndTureky buy S-400, Chin gs/crude, Germn opposed Nord Stream pressure.




    How liberal media show Russian economy:


    The header news:

    The ruble collapsed after the news of the sanctions


    And what is inside?

    The collapse of the ruble was recorded on the Moscow Stock Exchange after news that the EU and the US are preparing new sanctions against Russia. For ten minutes, the ruble fell by 46 kopecks. to the dollar and 66 cop. to the euro.

    According  to the Moscow Exchange, at 20:10 Moscow time, the dollar was worth 66.11 rubles, the euro - 74.85 rubles. The ruble exchange rate was somewhat adjusted to 20:40 Moscow time: dollar - 65.9 rubles, euro - 74.6 rubles.

    https://news.ru/den-gi/rubl-rukhnul-posle-novostej-o-sankciyakh/
    https://www.kommersant.ru/theme/416




    so ruble is down 0,45kopeck vs USD -> 045/65 -> 0,7%  this is collapse right? especially that 30 mins later it changed to 0,3%


    And now?
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDRUB=x?ltr=1








    medo wrote:In US are mad, bacase Russia develope their own financial transaction system and new they will test their own internet before April this year. Russia will now be totaly disconnected from US, so sanctions will practicaly have no effect and US global monopol is broken as there will be paralel systems.

    + Russia's  reserves are not in US
    + US debt is skyrocketing
    + Russia can switch to Euro/Yun/Ruble/Crypto in short notice without being afrid of intervention (vide: Iraq, Libya or even Iran which returned to USD some time ago)
    + Russia can start selling IRMBs to more countries like Iran


    Last edited by GunshipDemocracy on Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Godric on Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:54 pm

    Austin wrote:
    GarryB wrote:If the US goes hard line all the way sanctions on Russia they are in trouble themselves.

    That would mean cutting themselves off from the worlds major source of Titanium and a lot of other materials as well.

    It would ruin Boeing...

    It would make NASA squirm because they would have no way of getting to or from the ISS for a few years...

    At the end of the day all the hostility from the US has pushed Russia to look elsewhere... just because some tiny little country in Africa does not have the money the US does does not mean there is no value in trading with them for Russia.

    In fact trading with small non wealthy countries can often be much more profitable than trading with a superpower that wants to limit your growth and maximise their profit margins.

    Trade with the rest of the world will help both Russia grow and develop, but also the rest of the world grow and develop rather more than all these years of trading with western colonial powers.

    Trade with the west for countries means accepting their demands and bending to their rules... which generally benefit no one but the west.

    If you have ever worked in retail it is the richest customers that tend to be the tightest... if they are buying a lot of stuff they expect to get a deal... they expect to pay less than people with little or no money because they think their business is valuable. Many retailers see how wealthy they are and want their business, but by negotiating that way they will not actually earn much money from them at all because of all the incentives and bonuses they offer.

    For Russia it makes more sense to look for trading partners that don't want to control Russia or tell her how to run her own affairs and expect the same from Russia... that is most of the rest of the world... including China and India...

    What it is not is the EU and the west and the US in particular, who are always bringing up human rights issues, while at the same time murdering millions and causing the suffering of millions more with their sanctions and invasions and civil wars.... sorry colour revolutions...

    Putin is right to focus on food production... suggesting Russia should become more financial is like saying they should look in to devil worship... hedge fund managers will be the end of the west... it is just smoke and mirrors with money... it is the next generation beyond buying a company and firing all its workers and stealing their pensions and then selling the company to the highest bidder for an immoral profit.

    Companies should not be a vehicle for a quick buck for investors... companies are about employment and producing goods or services that people want or need, it is about the employees having a stable good paying job so they can support families... companies producing food that are successful can meet domestic demand and export the product to countries that need food too... everyone needs food... nobody needs hedge funds...

    Trumpistan broke the deal. Maybe Russia and Iran should go ahead and make some deals: Su-30, S-400, Pantsir, Iskander...

    And production of Su-30s in Iran will promote stability and peace in the region as it supplies these aircraft to Iraq and Syria and itself... hahahaha...

    Garry , They would stop Titanium supply to US because this is big business for Russia and same goes for space co-operation this is big money earner and job provider in RUssia so its like trying to cut the branch you are sitting on  . This has been stated even at the official level. 

    Reaction should be political and some economic like stop buying Boeing aircraft

    sometimes you have to take a short term hit .. even a hint on a ban on titanium sales would send US stock market into a tail spin ... it would also cripple the US air force i would also add this in
    starting with a ban on sales of RD 180 rocket engines to the US, ban all over flights of Russia territory by us airliners, cargo etc, ban the sales of Boeing civil aircraft, ban all US products in sale in Russia like fast food chains, cars, coke, pepsi, Apple, Amazon, Ebay ..ban LNG gas sales to the US, as well as banning the use of the dollar by Russian companies encouraging them to use the ruble, Yuan and the Euro for trade deals and last but most importantly turn the Ruble into being backed by Russia's gold ... that would really hurt America

    EU imposing more sanctions on Russia is wishful thinking on America's part
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:54 pm

    The Americans have also stated that their waiver for sanctions on countries that trade with Iran wont be extended... so this will be the real test... are countries going to choose to trade with America... the big bully, or are they going to trade with who they like...

    If they give in and stop trading with Iran where will it all end?

    US objections to Nord stream basically centre around wanting to sell gas to europe but competition from cheaper Russian piped gas is stopping them.

    If India gives in and stops buying Iranian oil, that will only encourage the US to continue to apply blackmail to force India to trade only with US companies and not with rival Russian companies...
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    Post  Godric on Thu Feb 14, 2019 3:36 pm

    GarryB wrote:The Americans have also stated that their waiver for sanctions on countries that trade with Iran wont be extended... so this will be the real test... are countries going to choose to trade with America... the big bully, or are they going to trade with who they like...

    If they give in and stop trading with Iran where will it all end?

    US objections to Nord stream basically centre around wanting to sell gas to europe but competition from cheaper Russian piped gas is stopping them.

    If India gives in and stops buying Iranian oil, that will only encourage the US to continue to apply blackmail to force India to trade only with US companies and not with rival Russian companies...

    American's are not interested in free open trade .... they want the rest of the world to buy from them ... if they manufactured stuff people out with America wants or needs then their economy wouldn't so f*cked ... they are a country on the wane desperate to cling on to power by any means
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    Post  Hole on Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:19 pm

    NordStream 2 is a good example for western hypocrisy. They claim it is political, but inr eality there are a bunch of companies building a pipeline with private money because they can make money from it. On the other side Germany will build two LNG terminals with state money! They will even take all losses if they occur. But nothing political here. Just "business" with our masters in Washington.
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    Post  Austin on Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:15 pm

    Medvedev: new US sanctions will not affect the financing of national projects

    https://rns.online/economy/Medvedev-novie-sanktsii-SSHa-ne-povliyayut-na-finansirovanie-natsproektov--2019-02-14/
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:23 pm

    Sanction the national debt?

    I don't think the senators have a clue what they are even proposing.

    I imagine Russian senators and specialists are laughing right now.

    US lives in a bubble. They think that everyone follows their demands. This exact thing (anti Russian sanctions by US laws but forcing it on others) is a clear violation of other nations soverignty which is forcing responses not to Russia but towards the US.

    Gotta love it.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:36 pm


    1) Sanctioning Russian debt: Russia ain't got no debt thanks in part to US sanctions in the firts place. If they went with this from the get go then it could have worked but that ship has sailed back in 2014.

    2) Sanctioning Russian gas: do they even have a clue how many countries use Russian gas? (wast majority of them being their own flunkies)
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:49 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    1) Sanctioning Russian debt: Russia ain't got no debt thanks in part to US sanctions in the firts place. If they went with this from the get go then it could have worked but that ship has sailed back in 2014.


    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign-debt.asp

    overeign debt is a central government's debt. It is debt issued by the national government in a foreign currency in order to finance the issuing country's growth and development. The stability of the issuing government can be provided by the country's sovereign credit ratings which help investors weigh risks when assessing sovereign debt investments.


    i.e. it is about issuing bonds securities for external investors of borrongn form intl organizations liek IMF/ WB (what doesn't happen now)
    http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/?Prtid=svs

    I dotn get those economic terms but on link below it seems that there is still like ~$50 Bn to pay.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/government-debt-to-gdp


    If Russia cannot borrow for foreign sources must either take money form reserves or print money. I men involvements in notional projects.
    Will it kill Russia - not, it wont. Will it create some disturbances and plan adjustments? IMHO it will.

    The best thing here is time factor. Time is on Russian side not US one. Those stakes get higher and higher is clear signal of Us desperation not winning...


    PapsD wrote: 2) Sanctioning Russian gas: do they even have a clue how many countries use Russian gas? (wast majority of them being their own flunkies)  

    They do, but IMHO US psychopaths are convinced on own superpowers. There is lso other dimensio here. Th more US pushes the more govts must as a precaution to build ( or join) parallel financial system.


    Talking about time:
    http://www.usdebtclock.org/

    US total debt is not $ 22,000,000,000,000 - that is govt debt only, Total debt is over $72,228,186,000,000 lol1 lol1 lol1

    savings per family:............$11,560
    debt per family :..............$857,878

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:04 am

    Austin wrote:I think the day is not far off when a random US Senator will introduce a Bill in the House to sanction Russian People who eat food grown in Russia and not made in USA or Europe Laughing

    They may be part of list of people barred from Travelling to US Sad

    yup, and GMO.





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    The Ministry of Finance proposes to compensate them taxes on income from startups
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    Post  Austin on Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:23 am

    WORLD

    February 15, 2019 00:02
    On the second circle of hell: how Russia will respond to new US sanctions


    https://iz.ru/845780/aleksei-zabrodin-dmitrii-laru-nikolai-khrenkov-aleksandr-volobuev-tatiana-gladysheva/po-vtoromu-krugu-ada-kak-rossiia-otvetit-na-novye
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    Post  Austin on Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:28 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:They do, but IMHO US psychopaths are convinced on own superpowers. There is lso other dimensio here. Th more US pushes the more govts must  as a   precaution to build ( or join) parallel  financial system.


    Talking about time:
    http://www.usdebtclock.org/

    US total debt is not   $ 22,000,000,000,000  - that is govt debt only,  Total debt is  over $72,228,186,000,000  lol1  lol1  lol1

    savings per family:............$11,560
    debt per family :..............$857,878


    No the total debt is much greater if you add unfunded liabilities

    I would suggest you and others watch this video by Jeff Gundlach who today is the No 1 Bond Manager in the US , managing portfolio worth over $ 100 billion , You will have great idea about US Debt

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    Post  GarryB on Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:46 pm

    + US debt is skyrocketing

    And more importantly they don't care... when talking about the INF treaty Trump talked about outspending Russia to gain superiority if the INF treaty fails.

    Of course Russia has talked about measures that don't cost much and that they can backtrack from... ground launched cruise missiles are cheap to make and can be made relatively quickly.

    The Poseidon could be used for mapping the ocean floor autonomously so it does not have to be a weapon at all...

    And of course it would be cheap and simple to adapt existing weapons to extend range like Iskander and its air launched version Kinzhal.

    Personally I think the withdrawal of the INF treaty is great for Russia... the US has basically turned its Navy into a mobile ABM system with AEGIS... a few modifications of radars etc and new missiles and it would be the sort of thing that could be positioned any where at sea and form a problem... with the removal of the INF treaty the Russians can now develop IRBMs to target the US Navy directly over most of the northern hemisphere and of course reallocate all European targets and targets in the far east like Japan et all with IRBMs so their ICBMs are free to target things in the US... so US targets will likely get much better coverage... 4-5 warheads per target just to be sure...

    So keep spending more America...
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    Post  Arrow on Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:58 pm

    can now develop IRBMs to target the US Navy wrote:

    IRBM shoot ships ? How IRBM has enough CEP ?
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:12 am

    Arrow wrote:

    IRBM shoot ships ? How IRBM has enough CEP ?


    that's economy thread . Off Topic
    esily: Kizhal CEP = ~1m   Iskander-M 5-7m.  to turn CVN Ford into kamikaze ship  more than enough.


    most probably optical homing
    Off Topic
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:30 am

    GarryB wrote:
    + US debt is skyrocketing

    And more importantly they don't care... when talking about the INF treaty Trump talked about outspending Russia to gain superiority if the INF treaty fails.

    Muricans are not stupid, they are evil. Of course I cannot exclude total degradation of the ruling class like in late Rome, short before fall.
    IMHO elites  see coming collapse and try to "outsource" all debts to other peoples.  Russia mainly and China are main "uprising" leaders so US focuses on them to moke exmple execution for others to remember. But this carries  also inherent risk.  Rising stakes means  you fall harder when you loose....




    The Poseidon could be used for mapping the ocean floor autonomously so it does not have to be a weapon at all...

    Russians already have project of such drone.  Something like that but with AIP


     the US has basically turned its Navy into a mobile ABM system with AEGIS... a few modifications of radars etc and new missiles and it would be the sort of thing that could be positioned any where at sea and form a problem... with the removal of the INF treaty the Russians can now develop IRBMs to target the US Navy directly over most of the northern hemisphere and of course reallocate all European targets and targets in the far east like Japan et all with IRBMs so their ICBMs are free to target things in the US... so US targets will likely get much better coverage... 4-5 warheads per target just to be sure...

    your'e such a  pessimist. Anadyr  - Los Angeles -> 5,400km no need for ICBM here.


    Tokyo Vladivostok distance  -1, 060km -> Kizhal (missile range) is ~1,300km. No need to leave Russian mainland, enough  4-6 Tu-22M3M


    Last edited by GunshipDemocracy on Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:40 am

    Why I think sanctions have alsouseful side for Russia.?

    * mentality - less nd less Russians consider western fairy-tales of "free and democratic values " any meaning, only pure theft and aggression is what west is about. .

    * forcing elites to switch to internal sources of development funding


    * forcing oligarchs to clearly decide - run to west (and possibly loose both Russian assets and money in west) or return (stolen) money to Russia




    Austin wrote:On the second circle of hell: how Russia will respond to new US sanctions[/b]

    will send US to where sanctions came from? Very Happy



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    Post  kvs on Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:55 pm

    George1 wrote:Russia's GDP grew 2.3% in 2018.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/02/05/business/economy-business/russian-economy-outpaced-expectations-2018-rising-2-3/?fbclid=IwAR0rndBLHK9QEuC4Re5tKxNTJLJpnfltRj3KCyny1iShVuR8r3bm0IuxA5o#.XF1_fxJS-vF

    What these reports always lack is the proper context for the growth figures. Russian external debt was reduced by 64.4 billion USD
    in 2018 (i.e. 12.4%). At the same time foreign investment has been negative (https://themoscowtimes.com/news/foreign-investors-flee-russia-2018-pull-1-billion-63938).
    Recall (if you know) that debt repayments are a direct, unadjusted negative in the GDP balance sheet. Since any positive from investments
    and borrowing is absent we have the full $64.4 billion in debt repayment as a GDP contraction term in 2018.

    The nominal GDP in US dollars for 2017 was $1.531 trillion US. To have 2.3% GDP or $35.2 billion growth requires that the volume
    of the Russian GDP increased by $64.4 + $35.2 = $99.6 billion. This amounts to 6.5%. If Russian companies and government units
    did not pay down $64.4 billion US in debt in 2018, Russia would have had a GDP growth of 6.5%.

    In reality, debt repayments cannot be a pure negative for the GDP. Their only negative impact is any lost internal expenditure of the
    money. The assumption that 100% of the debt repayment money would have been expended for goods and services in the domestic
    economy is utter BS. For companies, discretionary expenditures are very limited (unlike for consumers). If they are repaying debt,
    then they have enough savings to do so and in fact, dedicate savings accumulation for repayment. Since the money supply in macroeconomics
    is not a fixed quantity and floats with economic activity, these companies are actually accumulating new money for debt repayment and
    not taking from some fixed pool, thereby depriving the economy of money. Then we have the coup de grace on the debt repayment
    being a 100% negative nonsense: if the companies that are paying down the debt are engaged in re-financing (i.e. domestic borrowing
    from Russian banks) then the GDP impact is precisely 0%.

    So the real growth of Russia's GDP in 2018 was closer to 6.5% than to 2.3%.
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:22 pm

    kvs - what's the real growth in EU-US?
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    Post  slasher on Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:16 pm

    Nice to see you're back @kvs. Read your post and recalled reading this two days ago though.
    As US piles on sanctions, foreign investors pour more money into Russia

    Seemingly things were on the uptick. However, I see twitter abuzz now with the doom and gloom pundits goading investor fears and backlash over the Calvey & Baring Vostok affair. Always a fickle bunch I guess.
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    Post  Vann7 on Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:23 am

    Interesting news.. that will affect world economy ,politics,between US,Russia and Europe..
    no less that 2 headlines in 2 reports at same time ,in RT over the same issue..

    West ‘starts listening to Russia’: Lavrov says Europeans want better relations after Munich talks

    Munich brawl: Pence clashes with Merkel and Mogherini over Iran deal, Russian pipeline

    The European colonies are in open rebellion with their American masters..  Smile

    https://www.rt.com/news/451644-lavrov-europe-better-relations-russia/


    https://www.rt.com/news/451627-mike-pence-munich-speech/

    US is looking now really but hurt . is painful to listen mike pence ,upset his allies
    are not listening their American masters anymore and now EU is pushing to defend their interest.

    i stand by what said about Germany and France recent cross border (military) peace treaty..Shocked
    This took me even me by surprise..because i did not saw that happening.. i was hoping
    a France -Russia and macron abandon the western world order but not a germany - france..
    alliance vs United States.
     
    Is a turning point in European history vs US relations..  This even more significant than the
    creation of the European Union..    Because for the first time in history since US replaced Britain
    as world leader , that Europe is now aligning forces to counter US ,whenever it threaten their
    their interest..

    Why this is so significant? because is WORLD LEADERSHIP what is being on dispute today..
    and as i predicted before.. Putin the Outdated ,leaderless and weak president ,will not have
    a leading role in any of this..   People can argue Europe system is as bad as American System. and maybe right. But still this dont change the fact that is a major division between US and Europe
    never seen before...  Shocked   that dont look cant be solved any time soon.. unless US retreat from all confrontation with Europe from IRAN issue and Nord Stream 2 issue.. which neither side will back down on this key issues..  So effectively if Trump real strategy was to disband NATO by annoying a lot Europeans.. notice how he demanded Europe to pay more for security , like broken record ,then he should be praised for this..  if this was his real goals.. if not..then he will be the foolest President ever of all..  But i dont think he is Dumb.. and in my opinion Trump , intentionally did this..
    To break the American Empire ,annoy to hell your vassals so they take the decision to split.
    lets see all the things Trump did that annoyed Europe..

    1) To break the Iranian deal obama signed with Europe..
    2)To leave the INF treaty.. with Russia..  that was made to protect Europe from a nuclear war.
    3) To refuse to sign the climate change treaty important for france , whether is was right or wrong to do is not the point .. but that Trump opposed Europe even in this little thing.
    4) Blackmail of mayor sanctions if Go ahead with Nord Stream 2..
    5) Annoying Germany and many other NATO countries to pay more for their membership of NATO
      after they agree to spend 2% of their GDP in security..he switched and raised the demand to 4%.  
      Laughing  
    6) He do sanctions on Russia aluminiun companies that damage European cars makers ,including Britain that buys aluminium
    7)He even critize Britain Theresa May , and pressure UK to leave the EU.. now..  

    So either Trump is the most dumb president ever ,and dont what he is doing ,how bad is to annoy your allies so much in so little time ,for an Empire to continue to exist.. or he knows what he is doing.. and he is doing this intentionally ,to force Europe , take their own way , and create his own system..  or maybe is a bit of both.. he knows and also at times dumb too..

    So which is the potential scenarios for world future..
    If Putin continues to be Putin.. and Europe continues to do what is doing now..
    from more probable to bit less probable..

    1) A new world order is created..by EU,  is not the one we all hoped.. but is a bit better.. in terms
       of Russia security..  But it will not improve much the Regime Change policy of France and UK that
       more likely will remain in the EU. In this new world order US dangerous missiles for Russia security
       will be removed.. in change Russia stays in the INF treaty even if AMerican leave..  In the long term when EU consolidate power ,they can potentially offer Russia they will Abandon NATO , if Russia give away some of its sovereignty to Europe.. and become an associate member of the EU ,an accept
    EU laws to apply to Russia in many things..  So basically Russia could end like a new UK for the EU..
    one that needs to pay EU and dont have controls over its own borders.. and just like UK ,Russia can conserve its nukes.. and miltary. but all Russian banks will have to submit to EU..
    So basically Russia give away some of its sovereignty in change for security ,that is Europe leaving NATO.  in the best possible case EU leave NATO and US bases forced to leave Europe , turning Europe into the new America.. in the worse one ,they dont.. but they demand all missile bases of Americans in Europe. to be dismantle ,in change Russia stays in all nuclear treaties.. This scenario avoids a world war 3.. if Russia integrates into the EU..  and submits some of its sovereingty to them.

    2) Second possible future Scenario is  US to seek revenge and destroy the EU from the inside.. this is Sampson option of Americans ,if the world is not ours ,it will be for no one.. and So the EU Collapse like soviet union and mayor civil unrest across many cities.. this could benefit Russia if Europeans seeks to create a new Political and economic system with Russia.  or could only benefit US if Europeans governments instead choose give away their sovereingty to US ,for forgiveness.  lol1  

    3)It could be a bit of #1 and #2.. and EU splits.. and Germany and France and Italy becomes very weak and move to Russian orbit , and everyone else to American system.. this case will benefit Russia but will not avoid a world war 3 scenario with Americans.. in short term.

    4)Things remain the same.. Europeans  gets scared by US sanctions and return to US orbit and leadership..and they give away their plans to lead..the world order.. In this scenario world war 3
    cant be avoided.
    .  No matter how many Hypersonic missiles or weapons Putins makes ,no matter how many olympics Russia wins , Russia under Putin ,cant avoid a world war 3 with americans that will go nuclear in no time, if Putin the moron continues being Putin,and dont counter American Leadership and influence of their business.  ie.. dont create an alternative system to the American world.

    so in scenarios #2,#3,and #4 ..a world war 3 ,between US and Russia is possible..because the American system/American influence, is not challenged and completely defeated..   and Only in scenario #1  ,where Europe creates a new alternative system to the American world.. only in this scenario a world war 3 can be avoided..   So in other words.. Putins and his weak vision of Russia
    that offers the world healthy food and moral and values and sports entertainment ,will will play no role at all in saving the planet from a world war 3.. only Europe who have LEADERSHIP can stop
    Americans from the destruction of the planet .

    So this is basically Europe doing what Putin should have done ,but he didnt since he came to power 20 years ago.. ,creating an alternative system to the American System ,for the European one..and one of the major benefits , to avoid a world war 3  between US and Russia and European interest respected.. (not necessarily the Russian ones) .Only Leaders can defend properly their interest.. followers only do what they told.. if they dont want to be alone . like Putin/Russia , takes a second seat. but it will not end for sure ,European interference in sovereingty of other nations.. still it will be less dangerous system.. than a guarantee World war 3 under the American system.

    Very long term 10 to 20 years.. the only thing that can avoid a world war 3 ,that will go nuclear in not time is a full integration between RUssia and Europe.. sexy or not , like it or not ,is the only
    thing that can guarantee no world war 3.. if Russia and Europe integrates.. as Germany and France
    are today. This is because European business and Russian business will be very integrated.. So sanctions will NOT work.. to sanction Russia ,Americans will need to sanction Europe too or vice versa. is like a sanction of crimea are useless , without sanctions on Russia too. So this integration with Europe will make it impossible for US to break Russia economy.. and if they align their militaries too.. then in order to destroy Russia , Americans will need to destroy all Europe too.. and CHina and this will not be accepted even by the vast majority of the anglo elites circles.. and they will have no other choice that to live in the same world . and respect each other interest .. NATO for sure disbanded in a million parts after a Russia -Europe integration.. in long term.. So what is in question
    today.. is who will lead the world.. american system? or the European one ? If Putin was a real visionary leader.. the question today will be between American and Russian system.. with Europe seeking to join Russia and follow Russia lead.



    Last edited by Vann7 on Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:55 am; edited 1 time in total
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:45 am

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:kvs - what's the real growth in EU-US?

    This is more challenging to answer since domestic borrowing is large part of the GDP stimulus. But here goes.

    http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/debta2018q3.html

    The gross external debt of the US was 19,556,588 million US dollars in 2018 (assuming nothing much changed in the 4th quarter).
    It was 18,941,472 million USD in 2017 (year on year). So the US foreign borrowing increased by 615,116 million or about 615 billion
    USD.

    The US nominal GDP was 19.39 trillion USD in 2017. Ceteris paribus, the US GDP growth from debt increase alone was 3.2%.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

    The 4th quarter is looking very bad, so the GDP growth in the US for 2019 looks to be about 3%. That means that the US GDP
    did not grow and actually shrank a bit in 2018. If Russia borrowed $100 billion its GDP growth would look stellar. It comes back
    to the effectiveness of borrowing on stimulating economic activity. It seems to me that over time the effectiveness is reducing
    so not all 100% of the borrowed money can be added to proper GDP. So the actual US GDP growth is closer to 0% than to 3.2%.

    The EU is in even worse shape than the USA:

    https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/european-union/external-debt--of-nominal-gdp

    The foreign debt of the EU is around 125% of its GDP.

    http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=10000065

    In 2017 it was 13.89 trillion euro and for 2018 it is looks to be about 14.4 trillion euro. This is an increase of about 3.7% but in
    GDP terms it is 3.7 x 1.25 = 4.6%. The EU GDP growth for 2018 was under 2%

    https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate

    So the GDP of the EU is contracting and in a way that indicates a severe recession (i.e. about 3% GDP drop per year). There
    is even a clear pattern of decline during 2018.



    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:50 am

    slasher wrote:Nice to see you're back @kvs. Read your post and recalled reading this two days ago though.
    As US piles on sanctions, foreign investors pour more money into Russia

    Seemingly things were on the uptick. However, I see twitter abuzz now with the doom and gloom pundits goading investor fears and backlash over the Calvey & Baring Vostok affair. Always a fickle bunch I guess.

    Thanks.

    Foreign investment into Russia has been mediocre for the last 20 years. This in large part thanks to anti-Russian propaganda spooking away
    investors and giving investors the wrong view that Russia is nothing more than a banana republic that does not have a diversified economy with
    substantial growth capacity.

    As for 2018, the $99.6 billion increase was not due to investors pouring in money. In fact, we had the usual drivel spewed by both Russian and
    foreign sources about "massive capital flight". These liars include the $64.4 billion debt pay down as "capital flight". The public information space
    is a sewer of lies, nonsense and omissions.
    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:50 am

    kvs wrote:
    Foreign investment into Russia has been mediocre for the last 20 years.   This in large part thanks to anti-Russian propaganda spooking away
    investors and giving investors the wrong view that Russia is nothing more than a banana republic that does not have a diversified economy with
    substantial growth capacity.    


    those folks font seem to look from timeline vs. geopolitical perspective. The first task was to stabilize state as such. 98 default, 2nd Chechen war, demogrphy in collpse,
    U$ counting on 2005 when Russian nuclear forces stop being efficient (afair).

    Then Georgia war- recession -economy up + army reform - Ukraine -sanctions...

    + internal support issue (2012 filed orange revolution )

    Now we can see it is not that bad after all





    kvs wrote: As for 2018, the $99.6 billion increase was not due to investors pouring in money.   In fact, we had the usual drivel spewed by both Russian and
    foreign sources about "massive capital flight".  These liars include the $64.4 billion debt pay down as "capital flight".   The public information space
    is a sewer of lies, nonsense and omissions.  

    And thats what I dont get in Russia. Why pubic space is occupied by pro western media? Lent, RBK, Kommersant, Novaya Gazeta, Lozh, Ekho of Moscow. How stte cn let to hijack 5-10 5 of population like 80-90% of media?


    Last years I can see $ can jump to 100 Rubles. And again like people dont remember that those "experts" are permanently wrong. Foreign investors flight economy collapses! but this was mostly short term speculation capital since nobody closed any factory/refinery.

    Recent header: Ruble collapsed due to sanctions ! Yup by 50 kopeck from 65,xx-66,xx. i.eh 0,7 %





    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:52 am

    kvs wrote:
    slasher wrote:Nice to see you're back @kvs. Read your post and recalled reading this two days ago though.
    As US piles on sanctions, foreign investors pour more money into Russia

    Seemingly things were on the uptick. However, I see twitter abuzz now with the doom and gloom pundits goading investor fears and backlash over the Calvey & Baring Vostok affair. Always a fickle bunch I guess.

    Thanks.

    Foreign investment into Russia has been mediocre for the last 20 years.   This in large part thanks to anti-Russian propaganda spooking away
    investors and giving investors the wrong view that Russia is nothing more than a banana republic that does not have a diversified economy with
    substantial growth capacity.    

    As for 2018, the $99.6 billion increase was not due to investors pouring in money.   In fact, we had the usual drivel spewed by both Russian and
    foreign sources about "massive capital flight".  These liars include the $64.4 billion debt pay down as "capital flight".   The public information space
    is a sewer of lies, nonsense and omissions.  

    You got to remember digital news media is a poor driver of capital growth, their literally barely hanging on, so they have to resort to click-baiting to drive the necessary web traffic with their advertisement banners. This phenomenon is basically true in the West as well as in Russia.

    Sponsored content

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    Post  Sponsored content


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