Kimppis wrote:What do you mean? High interest rates and T Bill purchases, or both? Just curious.
The situation is weird though... I also just realized that the overall GDP growth during the first half of 2017 was possibly faster than during the second, which is really an achievement for the RCB. The slowdown was severe.
And as already mentioned as well, they are massively overshooting their inflation target... negative GDP growth in November... industrial production overall grew slower than in 2016. So where's that "import substitution"? I realize that the high interest are the reason for that, but still.
Now RCB forecasts a growth of 1.0-1.5% for the first half of this year. They certainly don't care about short-term growth, that's for sure. "Muh structural reforms, we can't grow faster 1.5%, hur dur." Oh well, I guess they really know what they're doing. Interest rates will inevitably go down, just slower than they realistically should. I don't know, just some very strange figures. 2% was supposed to be pretty much certain, but in the end it wasn't anywhere close.
Why is it so hard for people to follow the facts? How can there be a normal economic regime with extortion level interest rates?
We are talking Economics 101. Excessive interest rates can make the GDP shrink. The large drop in the Russian CPI indicates that the rates are way too high and driving economic growth into the ground. Import substitution cannot undo basic economics. If companies cannot borrow to invest in retooling, then they can't take advantage of market trends and opportunities. They are driven into bankruptcy. No modern capitalist economy has corporations operating on profits alone. Borrowing is essential and not some sort of luxury as people in this thread seem to think.
Kimppis wrote:What do you mean? High interest rates and T Bill purchases, or both? Just curious.
Russia has $105 billion in US T bills which US if it wants can freeze that money any time or refuse to encash the bill , Its a very small amount from US Standards like a drop in US T Bill Ocean that are just printed from Thin Air and it wont make much impact.
For Russian $105 billion is a lot of money , it can invest that money in its own economy there are many good projects that needs money in Russia.
Instead of just keeping it in some US banks hoping the good will of Trump will triumph over any US Congress dictat , it makes sense to just remove say $100 billion and invest in its own economy or just pay off any state debt in worst case but better to invest so that economy grows.
The Bank of Russia notes that annual inflation remains at a consistently low level, while inflation expectations are gradually declining.
"Short-term pro-inflationary risks have abated. Therefore the balance of inflationary and economic risks has shifted slightly towards the risks to economic growth. The uncertainty over the situation in global financial markets has increased. This year annual inflation is much less likely to exceed 4%. In this environment the Bank of Russia will continue to reduce the key rate and may complete the transition from moderately tight to neutral monetary policy in 2018," the regulator said.
On the eve of the meeting most of the analysts interviewed by TASS said that the regulator would likely to lower the key rate from to 7.5%. Among the main factors for such a decision they named low inflation, a decrease in devaluation risks amid stabilization of oil prices.
At the same time, a number of experts note that the volatility that recently emerged on global market as well as the growing expectations of tightening monetary policy in the US and the EU, may force the Bank of Russia to take a more cautious approach to changing rates in the future.
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will hold its next meeting on the key rate on March 23, 2018.
Kimppis wrote:What do you mean? High interest rates and T Bill purchases, or both? Just curious.
Russia has $105 billion in US T bills which US if it wants can freeze that money any time or refuse to encash the bill , Its a very small amount from US Standards like a drop in US T Bill Ocean that are just printed from Thin Air and it wont make much impact.
For Russian $105 billion is a lot of money , it can invest that money in its own economy there are many good projects that needs money in Russia.
Instead of just keeping it in some US banks hoping the good will of Trump will triumph over any US Congress dictat , it makes sense to just remove say $100 billion and invest in its own economy or just pay off any state debt in worst case but better to invest so that economy grows.
Putin does not understand economy and takes path to least resistance..
Putin never makes any sense... in developing Russia . He follows the American System ,and later gets disrespected and slapped in the face ,he gets sanctions ,his allies invaded ,euromaidans left and right on Russia or allied countries,and terrorism and allies bombed by US ,and now even Russian military bases bombed with Russians killed by US supplied weapons ,and Putin do nothing.
I don't think is United Russia party the problem. He is the problem. His ignorance on how to counter its enemies, his fear to fight back is what makes Russia to be disrespected and humiliated so much in the world. BRICS was a step in the right direction..but if all they do is to focus in loans for third world nations for infrastructure ,then it will be a huge waste of time. Russia needs to setup an alternative to the American system , American banks, American internet ,American Technology and entertainment industry. and promoting Russia as a leader in Agriculture and Sports ,is not going to help in anything. Russia needs to completely modernize its economy , privatize its energy industry that will make Russia energy industry sanction proof.. because will be in the hands of Europe. and if there is a war or Russia in future change its mind..The Russia government can easily nationalize its energy industry back. no problem.
Cheering Russia economy today ,grow of 1% or 3% or even 5% if ever gets there is not understanding Russia major Issue ,that is ,its lack of influence in the world , its lack of alternative to the American system. Russia lack of influence among the developed nations in the world. It is this weakness in Putin's Russia economy , weakness in influence ,what allow Americans to continue recruiting nations after nation to turn against Russia. People follow US ,not because they like them.. but because there is no other system , since even Russia depends on American Banks, American Internet and american technology. The day Russia transform itself into a leader in world development ,world technology and offer an alternative to the American world , it will be the day NATO will disband and no longer US will have power to influence or sanction any nation.. this also will sink US economy and dollar ,when it lose its European loyalty to their system.
People on this forum focus a lot in numbers , Is not about numbers.. is about Quality ,is about influence is about world leadership . Is not the same 1% economic growth selling bananas and oil ,than 1% growth exporting leading technology in the world that everyone cheers and like. If Russia can develop an economy that influence the entire world , as American did with the manned moon landing, internet , American entertainment industry ,Hollywood ,and the invention of computers ,then Russia will be in a far more stronger position to influence nations to no longer follow the american system ,and offer an alternative. BRICS is a good step.. but it falls short in ambitions . if Putin pushed in the direction of total Independence of BRICS from US system . or at least Russia convince CHINA to create a military /scientific /and economic alliance , In bank industry ,in Space ,in leading Technology export ,then it will shake the entire world , and US domination and its corrupt system will end ,because there will be a strong alternative to US leadership ,their leading business and banks in the world.
If economy size was the same... between German and Saudi Arabia.. it is not the same 5% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia , than a 5% economic growth for Germany. One nation is seen as a third world country and the other is a influential nation in the world. So RUssia have an image problem , and this is why they have so little influence in the west.. among the most developed nations and no real allies that will follow Russia even in the battlefield. Only rejected nations follows Russia and this needs to change by transforming Russia economy into a modern innovative one.
So if Russia economy is growing today a little or a little more ,is meaningless ,when you know , Russia is heading into a major Precipice. that will be cause of US war on Russia economy and the wars they create to weaken Russia . This is because sooner or later they will succeed in their attacks. So if for example ,tomorrow ,Americans manage to get Right sector nazis in Kiev in power and convince them to start a war on Russia. To start killing ethnic Russians in Ukraine , in the zones they control.. then it will force Russia to invade.. with a 50,000 ,100,000 army invasion..for the take over of all Ukraine and restore order there.. something that will sink Russia economy. US can also re-start a war in Moldova against transnistria ,and start a war against Serbia.
So this is why is wrong any celebrations of the state of Russia economy today..because there war against Russia is not over. and Putins is doing nothing to stop this ,other than begging its americans partners for their friendship. All this economic growth while is good ,can be a very temporary thing..and Russia economy will sink again with any war americans provoke against Russia . So this is why people in the kremlin cant just solve Russia economy problems and nation problems by just selling record wheat numbers or natural Gas. Russia needs to stop American aggression period. and it will not do it, saying please or ignoring their hostilities. and pretending that the west will cooperate with Russia on anything.
Americans can start tomorrow sanctions on Russia ,accusing them of being behind the killing of Abraham Lincon and for being behind of instigating the American civil war in 1861 ,where millions died.. and still most nations will follow US sanctions on Russia. Notice how Syria which is the one being attacked get sanctions from US and Europe ,while US and closest allies continues arming and financing ISIS and alqaeda there and everyone knows this. Europe knows that US is the world biggest sponsor of Terrorism..and that is aiding ISIS and Alqaeda.. but why they continue to follow americans? Because US is the leader of the developed world and everyone follows their corrupt system . and no one wants to be isolated like NOrth Korea or IRAN. and live in the stone age. without internet that Americans can also ban.
So Russia nation existence depends on its ability to influence the west ,in a positive way or negative , .. Compete US most popular business or defeat their military in a war ,but what Putin can't do is become weak and ignore that Russia is already in a state of war . is a slow war ,and Russia is being attacked from all directions and..Americans elite will never stop its aggression to Russia ,specially when Putin is weak and do not respond. ry and others.
This video shows Russia reality.. Putin's Russia..
according to an scholar.. there is no System in Russia that promote inventions becomes a reality (he speak about civilian modern Business ,why he talks about *inventions*) . So if this is true ,it should be a shameful fact of Putin's mediocre ruling of Russia. One thing is to invent or discover a new technology and new scientific discovery that Russia does all the time . and another is to create an Big business with it and export it to the world.. Russia is failing in execution and not in design.. it have good scientist and engineers ,they invent amazing things.. but it later end in the shelves as a tech demo in a laboratory or only for government and military use but not for to compete with anything in the west. Remove Putin from power and put a real businessman of the new generations of Russian ,someone that understand western business and western societies culture but that is also patriotic ,and you will see Russia to take off. Probably Russia will need a leader that was born not in Russia ,but in the west.. It worked with CAtherine.. which was German.. so perhaps a new German president ,and if possible women will be great. But better will be a leader with ambitions.. someone like JackMa or Elon Musk.. people that believe nothing is impossible. This is the kind of leader Russia needs and not an insecure and outdated leader ,that have no idea what their enemies are doing ,and how US use its Innovative leading Business as a weapon to influence the world into follow of their system..
Kimppis wrote:What do you mean? High interest rates and T Bill purchases, or both? Just curious.
Russia has $105 billion in US T bills which US if it wants can freeze that money any time or refuse to encash the bill , Its a very small amount from US Standards like a drop in US T Bill Ocean that are just printed from Thin Air and it wont make much impact.
For Russian $105 billion is a lot of money , it can invest that money in its own economy there are many good projects that needs money in Russia.
Instead of just keeping it in some US banks hoping the good will of Trump will triumph over any US Congress dictat , it makes sense to just remove say $100 billion and invest in its own economy or just pay off any state debt in worst case but better to invest so that economy grows.
I am afraid it is not that simple. If US wants to freeze especially in current almost-crisis situation it can start massive outflow of capital from US T-bonds. And THAT would be a hard blow to US. Look US didnt even introduce any sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt not to hurt own investors officially ...
It is not in banks first,second it is pretty liquid so in case of need you can take and use it. Third what do you understand by investing into economy? pouring billions in what? leaky banking system? corrupted local officials? first as I can see Russia is improving both efficiency of stat and budget governance and legal basis for development. Besides China has also 3 trillions of reserves in US and Saudis too like trillion and somehow they develop pretty fast...
Vann7 wrote: Putin never makes any sense... in developing Russia . He follows the American System ,and later gets disrespected and slapped in the face ,he gets sanctions ,his allies invaded ,euromaidans left and right on Russia or allied countries,and terrorism and allies bombed by US ,and now even Russian military bases bombed with Russians killed by US supplied weapons ,and Putin do nothing.
I don't think is United Russia party the problem. He is the problem. His ignorance on how to counter its enemies, his fear to fight back is what makes Russia to be disrespected and humiliated so much in the world. BRICS was a step
please, did you ever manages any organization and budgets around 5 millions euros/year? no? so how you know better then a politician with so long proven track of records? form what blogs and portals?! c'mon
Vann7 wrote: Russia needs to setup an alternative to the American system , American banks, American internet ,American Technology and entertainment industry. and promoting Russia as a leader in Agriculture and Sports ,is not going to help in anything. Russia needs to completely modernize its economy , privatize its energy industry that will make Russia energy industry sanction proof.. because will be in the hands of Europe. and if there is a war or Russia in future change its mind..The Russia government can easily nationalize its energy industry back. no problem.
but that's exactly what Putin is doing :D:D
Vann7 wrote: if Putin pushed in the direction of total Independence of BRICS from US system . or at least Russia convince CHINA to create a military /scientific /and economic alliance , In bank industry ,in Space ,in leading Technology export ,then it will shake the entire world , and US domination and its corrupt system will end ,because there will be a strong alternative to US leadership ,their leading business and banks in the world.
and how you'd convince China or other BRICS? huh? arguments? they need to have real tangible results otherwise you turn Russian and them into second Ukraine or Lithuania level ofpolitics.
If economy size was the same... between German and Saudi Arabia.. it is not the same 5% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia , than a 5% economic growth for Germany. One nation is seen as a third world country and the other is a influential nation in the world. So RUssia have an image problem , and this is why they have so little influence in the west.. among the most developed nations and no real allies that will follow Russia even in the battlefield. Only rejected nations follows Russia and this needs to change by transforming Russia economy into a modern innovative one.
People follow power not anything else. Germany is not respected country. It is country under US occupation. US has no allies has serfs and slaves. KSa is fully dependend of US bot in terms of money as military. They cannot build and design any hi tech till now. And for you thsi is a pattern to follow?! So for you budget which is loosing 100 BLN$year due to complete dependency on oil is something Russia shall do?!?!!
BTW Public finances Public debt 15% of GDP (2016 est.) Revenues $149.7 billion (2016 est.)[13] Expenses $236.7 billion (2016 est.)
Kimppis wrote:What do you mean? High interest rates and T Bill purchases, or both? Just curious.
The situation is weird though... I also just realized that the overall GDP growth during the first half of 2017 was possibly faster than during the second, which is really an achievement for the RCB. The slowdown was severe.
And as already mentioned as well, they are massively overshooting their inflation target... negative GDP growth in November... industrial production overall grew slower than in 2016. So where's that "import substitution"? I realize that the high interest are the reason for that, but still.
Now RCB forecasts a growth of 1.0-1.5% for the first half of this year. They certainly don't care about short-term growth, that's for sure. "Muh structural reforms, we can't grow faster 1.5%, hur dur." Oh well, I guess they really know what they're doing. Interest rates will inevitably go down, just slower than they realistically should. I don't know, just some very strange figures. 2% was supposed to be pretty much certain, but in the end it wasn't anywhere close.
I see this as a very prudent approach due to geopolitical factors that we never ever learn. I wonder what will change in marcoceonomical policy after elections?
The Ministry of Economic Development has improved the forecast for the price of oil and the growth of the Russian economy
TASS, August 28. The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia expects that the average Urals price for oil in 2017 will be at the level of $ 49 per barrel and will drop to $ 43.8 next year. This is reported by Reuters , who has read the materials of the ministry.
Against the background of the revised forecast of oil prices, the Economic Development Ministry also improved its forecast for GDP growth to 2.1% in 2017 and 2018, 2.2% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2020, the agency said.
Подробнее на ТАСС: http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4513127
When will Putins Economic Plans for 2018 Election be unveiled ?
You have to ask him to be sure My educated guess is after elections. This is likely his last term. He has to leave state strong and manageable in an efficient manner to me. I also presume that stuff he was talking about science lately and changes in financing can make the difference.
Medvedev confirmed that the Russian state is unable to be the go to market for Russian domestic IC production. As on the rest of the planet, private companies are going to have to find free markets to sink or swim.
This is good news for Russia since the state will not be creating a microelectronics welfare regime which will remove the incentive for innovation and proper search for new markets.
Medvedev confirmed that the Russian state is unable to be the go to market for Russian domestic IC production. As on the rest of the planet, private companies are going to have to find free markets to sink or swim.
This is good news for Russia since the state will not be creating a microelectronics welfare regime which will remove the incentive for innovation and proper search for new markets.
There is once again little detail. So exactly what were they supposed to buy? What did they not buy? What did they buy instead? Did they buy anything? What was the intended use for? What sectors?
Many are interested in Russia's IC's as evidence by Almaz Antey. It's rather getting annoying that people get hysterical or mad about something that there isn't really news about. Yes, they didn't buy 16B Rubles worth of Russian electronics. That's about all I got out of that article.
Medvedev confirmed that the Russian state is unable to be the go to market for Russian domestic IC production. As on the rest of the planet, private companies are going to have to find free markets to sink or swim.
This is good news for Russia since the state will not be creating a microelectronics welfare regime which will remove the incentive for innovation and proper search for new markets.
Actually not so good. Although state should not help forever but if you start with long lag behind at the same time fighting against "invisible hand of Sam's market" you NEED help. Till you are powerful enough to fight on your own. You can privatize later then if you want control to go to London or Washington.
Medvedev talking about innovate or perish should perish first talking about results :-)
The Central Bank will develop a certification program for the financial sector's cybersecurity by 2021
MAGNITOGORSK, February 14. / TASS /. The Bank of Russia plans by 2021 to develop a program for attesting employees of information security units of Russian financial organizations. This was announced by Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ruslan Vesterovsky, speaking at the X Ural Forum on Information Security of the financial sector.
"By 2021, we plan to develop a program of certification of specialists and heads of information security units of the credit and financial sector, who have been trained in higher education and retraining programs," he said.
The task of the Central Bank will be to create a certification program similar to the current for the financial market professionals (brokers, dealers, portfolio managers and forex dealers). According to Vesterovsky, in the field of cybersecurity of the financial sector, it is necessary to create the same system of certification that will ensure the required level of training of specialists.
"It is necessary to legalize the activities of organizations and specialists that provide cyber security in the financial and credit sector, and we will seriously focus on this," the deputy chairman of the Central Bank said.
Together with the assessment of core competencies, certification will include knowledge metrics about the work of credit and financial institutions. "Cyber-security specialists must understand the specifics of the activity of the segment in which this security is provided," Vesterovsky emphasized.
At first the program will be voluntary, in the future the Central Bank plans to make certification mandatory for all employees of information security services of Russian financial institutions.
Подробнее на ТАСС: http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4957848
Putin and the Saudi King discussed the military technical cooperation and coordination in hydrocarbon markets Подробнее на ТАСС: http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4958181
Many are interested in Russia's IC's as evidence by Almaz Antey. It's rather getting annoying that people get hysterical or mad about something that there isn't really news about. Yes, they didn't buy 16B Rubles worth of Russian electronics. That's about all I got out of that article.
and DAT is the question parliamentarians should ask to Dima ad other liberal scum
The government is already the primary buyer of military microprocessors. So the only avenue left is civilian hardware. The government cannot subsidize this since it destroys Russia's competitiveness. The civilian sector is clearly an emerging new market for Russian CPUs. These do-gooders want to f*ck it up.
Russia politicians are grossly incompetent when conveying any message. This whole discussion is because the language used by Medvedev is so obscure.
kvs wrote:The government is already the primary buyer of military microprocessors. So the only avenue left is civilian hardware. The government cannot subsidize this since it destroys Russia's competitiveness. The civilian sector is clearly an emerging new market for Russian CPUs. These do-gooders want to f*ck it up.
Russia politicians are grossly incompetent when conveying any message. This whole discussion is because the language used by Medvedev is so obscure.
Well that's the thing. I don't think they know what they want, what they need and what they are getting. Individual entities are getting what they need. Law enforcement agencies are getting Russian machines. Kraftway is interested in making advanced workstations using Elbrus etc. I think this will have the intended needs.
Problem is the end product. Everyone knows that only 1 company produces ready to go machines with Elbrus processor. But I don't know if it's en mass production. They go for ready to go Kraftway because all those machines are in mass production.
Anyway, we are all speculating what they are talking about. Since I have no details from the article, it is useless to debate.
US Treasury has promised rapid sanctions against Russia VedomostiFebruary 14, 21:26 Listen to this material
The administration of US President Donald Trump is working on new sanctions against Russia. This was stated by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin at the hearings in the Senate.
Sanctions should be expected in the near future, said Mnuchin. He did not specify anything more.
In late January, Mnuchin had already promised new sanctions. This happened after the publication of the so-called "Kremlin report". This is a list of Russian officials and businessmen whom the US considers close to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the public report of only 210 people. The entry in this list is not subject to any restrictions or sanctions. However, some billionaires have already complained about the negative impact of the report.
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But better will be a leader with ambitions.. someone like JackMa or Elon Musk.. people that believe nothing is impossible. This is the kind of leader Russia needs and not an insecure and outdated leader ,that have no idea what their enemies are doing ,and how US use its Innovative leading Business as a weapon to influence the world into follow of their system..
GunshipDemocracy
My educated guess is after elections. This is likely his last term. He has to leave state strong and manageable in an efficient manner to me.