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    Russian Economy General News: #8

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:55 am

    Maybe Putin is allowing this to be a "in your face" kind of thing for libtards then. The $100B, while useful, is still worth losing if it helps put another nail in the liberal coffins.

    But nothing done just yet.
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    Post  Austin on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:39 am

    Finance Minister Reveals Plan B If Western Investors Quit Russian Bonds

    https://sputniknews.com/business/201803301063066750-russian-investors-uk-stock-market/
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    Post  Austin on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:40 am

    miketheterrible wrote:Maybe Putin is allowing this to be a "in your face" kind of thing for libtards then. The $100B, while useful, is still worth losing if it helps put another nail in the liberal coffins.

    But nothing done just yet.

    That is not Putins father in law money to gamble it away , Thats Russian peoples money and $100 billion would be better spend for dozens of thing rather than get confiscated.

    IF US does that then He should be Kicked out of power for negligence
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    Post  ZoA on Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:48 am

    Austin wrote:Finance Minister Reveals Plan B If Western Investors Quit Russian Bonds

    https://sputniknews.com/business/201803301063066750-russian-investors-uk-stock-market/

    Well that's a weak sauce response mostly composed of "we'll manage without you", instead of executing proper retaliation by seizing UK public and private property in Russia, excluding UK businesses from Russian markets and so on. As I said, key institutions of Russian government are controlled by treasonous spineless appeasers.

    This is also reason US and UK are so aggressive against Russia, they know Russian government is full of pushovers that are unlikely to retaliate even when it would be easy to do so.
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    Post  Hole on Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:27 pm

    Russia accumulated a lot of Gold and is buying more.

    A lot of russian companys are now offering there bonds in Asia.

    This 100 Bill. are debt from Amiland. They are broke. This money is lost anyway.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:37 pm

    ZoA wrote:
    Austin wrote:Finance Minister Reveals Plan B If Western Investors Quit Russian Bonds

    https://sputniknews.com/business/201803301063066750-russian-investors-uk-stock-market/

    Well that's a weak sauce response mostly composed of "we'll manage without you", instead of executing proper retaliation by seizing UK public and private property in Russia, excluding UK businesses from Russian markets and so on. As I said, key institutions of Russian government are controlled by treasonous spineless appeasers.

    This is also reason US and UK are so aggressive against Russia, they know Russian government is full of pushovers that are unlikely to retaliate even when it would be easy to do so.

    Barring foreigners from doing business in Russia because their government are retards, is not a good response. Especially for Russia's investment portfolio. While Russian bonds are desireable in Asia, Europe is still largest buyer of it.  If they all of a sudden bar UK of it as response to UK barring sale of Russian bonds in UK, then other investors would be turned off.

    You are aware that not everyone is hostile to Russia?  Burning bridges isn't a good strategy, something you seems to not understand.

    Plus on top of that, it's UK money going to Russia. So let them invest. It may be hard for them to collect the money and it would be the UK governments fault, not Russia. It's not like UK bonds are a big collector in Moscow.

    Responses would be if London decided to not allow Russian civil jets use British airspace or airports, and Russia responded in kind. Not UK bans sale of Russian bonds in London, Russia responds by not letting all Brits invest in Russia. That's just fucking stupid.


    Last edited by miketheterrible on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:38 pm

    Austin wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Maybe Putin is allowing this to be a "in your face" kind of thing for libtards then. The $100B, while useful, is still worth losing if it helps put another nail in the liberal coffins.

    But nothing done just yet.

    That is not Putins father in law money to gamble it away , Thats Russian peoples money and $100 billion would be better spend for dozens of thing rather than get confiscated.

    IF US does that then He should be Kicked out of power for negligence

    And Russian private debt is $500B. Do the math, youre not this stupid. Guarantee that debt is over 50% in US.
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    Post  ZoA on Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:08 am

    miketheterrible wrote:
    Barring foreigners from doing business in Russia because their government are retards, is not a good response. Especially for Russia's investment portfolio. While Russian bonds are desireable in Asia, Europe is still largest buyer of it.  If they all of a sudden bar UK of it as response to UK barring sale of Russian bonds in UK, then other investors would be turned off.

    You are aware that not everyone is hostile to Russia?  Burning bridges isn't a good strategy, something you seems to not understand.

    Plus on top of that, it's UK money going to Russia. So let them invest. It may be hard for them to collect the money and it would be the UK governments fault, not Russia. It's not like UK bonds are a big collector in Moscow.

    Responses would be if London decided to not allow Russian civil jets use British airspace or airports, and Russia responded in kind.  Not UK bans sale of Russian bonds in London, Russia responds by not letting all Brits invest in Russia. That's just fucking stupid.

    Saying Russian needs foreign investments is same as saying China needed opium wars or India needed British colonialism. Russia has net positive trade account balance, that is they are getting more foreign currency then they need to finance their imports. Under such circumstances  there is next to no need for Russia to allow foreign "investors" to buy any part of Russian economy as all internal development can be financed by internal rouble based finance and existing export capabilities. Only fringe marginal case where foreign investors might be welcome is if they build entirely new facility form scratch in sector where they would not compete with existing Russian owned manufacturing. This is highly atypical  for foreign investment in Russia, most of which is simply acquisition of existing Russian facilities, in form of privatisation,  with minimal to non development. All those "investors" do is collect dividends and export such capital outside of Russia. For example what benefit is for Russia for BP to get 19,5% of Rosneft dividends to be pretty much instantly taken out of the country, instead of reinvested in Russian economy? Non at all. Russia should confiscate BP shares in Rosneft immediately without any compensation.

    If other such parasitic "investors" decide to pull out, all the better, less of the capital will be drained out of the county by them, and better of Russian balance of payment account will be.
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    Post  Hole on Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:23 pm

    Well, ZoA, if the west keeps on it´s path, than i think confiscations are the next step. England will start with it and in the end the west will be bancrupt and Russia will work with all the civilized countrys in the world = global south.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:06 pm

    I know what you are getting at ZOA. Issue is, Russia is doing it smart currently - get others to pay for it. If the money runs dry, it's not like all things stop. They will just end up going the route of Iran in the end.

    But to keep inflation low, they need to have open communication and trade, even with undesirable people. Time is the essence.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:32 pm

    I agree to an extent that Russia has not allowed NATO investment to be predatory. This is one of the reasons by NATO is not happy.
    But ZoA is right in principle and even Canada, from my on personal family experience, has been subjected to this sort of rape. Trudeau
    (the elder) had something called FIRA (foreign investment review agency) that was tasked with making sure that only positive investment
    was allowed. Of course, by the time Mulroney took over FIRA was shut down. I will not get into personal details, but one of Canada's
    leading industrial companies was bought out and shut down. This is pure negative investment.

    In Russia, the 1990s were a nightmare of a different level. There was no investment at all, just cataclysmic collapse from import flooding.
    It is a miracle that Russian companies survived at all. I suppose another 10 years of Yeltsinism would have done Russia in. After 2014
    Russia is no longer getting and no longer interested in NATO's "investments". But unfortunately there are too many monetarist maggots
    who do damage at the macroeconomic scale. Putin's job number 1 should be to root out these maggots. Job number 2 should be to
    keep building up military forces and job number 3 should be to find a worthy successor.
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    Post  Hole on Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:42 pm

    If the Russian CB would think like a western bank, with their reserves of 450 Bill. they could easily loan 4,5 Trill. into the economy. For me, this is the lagest critic point.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:32 pm

    Hole wrote:If the Russian CB would think like a western bank, with their reserves of 450 Bill. they could easily loan 4,5 Trill. into the economy. For me, this is the lagest critic point.

    It is clear that the CBR is a badly compromised institution that is damaging Russia's economy. People give Nabiullina credit she never
    deserved. Inflation in Russia is not her "achievement" it is the achievement of the Russian economy.
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    Post  Hole on Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:39 pm

    But she is also not as bad as some of you say she is, KVS. Her main problem is, she is trapped in this pseudo-liberal economics mindset.

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    Post  kvs on Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:45 pm

    Hole wrote:But she is also not as bad as some of you say she is, KVS. Her main problem is, she is trapped in this pseudo-liberal economics mindset.


    That still makes her a bad element. Maybe she will repent at the pearly gates of heaven, but that does not matter.

    You mentioned that NATO expected Russia to collapse after the sanctions. That was funny, but even more funny
    is the pathetic NATO propaganda "journalism". They attributed the crashing turnover at the Baltic ports to pure
    Russian economic decline. In fact, Russia was massively diverting shipping through its own ports and the total
    port turnover after 2014 in the Baltics actually increased (even though it shrank in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania).
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    Post  ZoA on Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:50 pm

    https://sputniknews.com/asia/201804011063121964-china-tariffs-us-imported-tariffs-response/

    Chinese communist party apparently still has some brass. It is sad to see Medvedev's government does not have balls to retaliate even against pathetic Tory regime in UK, let alone to defy US.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:52 pm

    ZoA wrote:https://sputniknews.com/asia/201804011063121964-china-tariffs-us-imported-tariffs-response/

    Chinese communist party apparently still has some brass. It is sad to see Medvedev's government does not have balls to retaliate even against pathetic Tory regime in UK, let alone to defy US.

    Putin needs to assert his electoral authority and appoint a new and hard line Prime Minister. Medvedev can go and join CATO or some other think tank.
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    Post  ZoA on Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:08 pm

    Russian government should immediately ban or heavily tax import of all luxury goods from UK (in addition to existing sanctions on food imports), declare null and void all British entertainment industry claims on royalties form distribution of their  product on territory of Russian federation, impose additional tariffs for overflights of British airlines over Russian territory, ban or heavy tax consumer good sales if those goods were produced in UK or had say above 50% of  components manufactured in UK, or were entirely manufactured outside of UK but owned and distributed by British company. Furthermore Russian citizens that own real estate in UK, either directly of via some offshore company, should be required to pay real estate tax to Russian budget in amount of say 2% of value of that UK located property. This all on top of imitate confiscation of all BP shares in Rusneft.


    Putin needs to assert his electoral authority and appoint a new and hard line Prime Minister. Medvedev can go and join CATO or some other think tank.

    Indead.
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    Post  Austin on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:20 pm

    Looks like the sword is out

    Mikhail Polyakov. Glazyev accused Nabiullina of serving American interests

    https://publizist.ru/blogs/111086/24301/-?utm_source=finobzor.ru

    It looks like Putin's adviser Sergei Glazyev leaves no plans to enter the new government. In any case, his attacks on Elvira Nabiullina and the Central Bank are getting more bitter every day. A new statement appeared, in which the Central Bank is actually accused of serving American interests:

    "The Central Bank voluntarily and blindly follows the recommendations of the IMF, which are being developed in the interests of the global financial oligarchy." In fact, the Central Bank's policy for many years serves the interests of the external American-centric financial system to the detriment of Russia's interests. "[b]

    [b]According to Glazyev, the policy of the Bank of Russia after 2010 has catastrophic consequences for the economy:

    - Underproduction of products due to contraction of working capital lending due to the increase in interest rates in excess of the level of profitability of most industries is at least 15 trillion. rub.

    - The destabilization of the ruble exchange rate and its extreme volatility, which put the ruble in the category of the most unreliable currencies and triggered capital flight of more than $ 250 billion.

    - The fall in investment due to the destabilization of the ruble and an increase in interest rates is estimated at no less than 5 trillion. rub. of capital investments.

    - 15% increase in the number of bankrupt enterprises to 37,000 due to deteriorating credit conditions.

    - The losses of enterprises, the budget and individuals (over 7 million investors) due to the bankruptcy of commercial banks after the withdrawal of 317 licenses account for more than 3 trillion. rub.

    - Undermining confidence in Russia as a locomotive of the Eurasian integration due to the instability of the ruble, which led to the dollarization of mutual trade in the EAES and buried our long-term work on giving it the status of a regional reserve currency ...


    The opinion is important - given the fact that Glazyev is considered one of the main centers of influence of Putin's closest circle and it is between him and the well-known liberal economists that a choice will be made in determining the vector of future economic reforms.

    Glazyev, a supporter of the socio-oriented economic model, consistently opposes Kudrin and his entourage, who are preparing a new version of shock therapy for the country. The future of the state depends on the one who wins in the hardware struggle: will the economy be put at the service of the people or become a hostage to the struggle between oligarchic and clerical clans.

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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:28 pm

    This isn't the first time he said this about her.

    In end, doesn't make a difference. It doesn't seem that anyone in Russian government is wanting her gone or to change her policies. They seem to think it works fine for them. Oh well. We will see what happens. I imagine low growth for years.

    I am wondering what is the difference now between new business created vs businesses lost in Russia in 2017?
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    Post  Hole on Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:39 pm

    Since mid-2015 the ruble is the best currency out there. Very stable. The correction was necessary, before the ruble was to expensive.
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    Post  ATLASCUB on Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:49 am

    When to seize the moment.... such a complicated responsibility of power. Putin is getting old too.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:10 am

    Just a note, here are the list of nations and interest rates:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate
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    Post  ZoA on Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:22 pm

    Hole wrote:Since mid-2015 the ruble is the best currency out there. Very stable. The correction was necessary, before the ruble was to expensive.

    If currency is overvalued or undervalued is determinated by trade account balance . If issuing country has negative trade account balance it currency is overvalued (for example US $), if country had  has positive  trade account balance it's currency is undervalued (for example Chinese ¥). Given that Russia had consistently positive trade account balance to say "ruble was to expensive" is outright wrong.

    That said there are reasons a country might want to deliberately undervalue its currency, mostly to discourage imports and promote domestic production without dealing with tariffs, subsidies and similar foreign trade regulation mechanisms that might trigger retaliatory measures of similar kind. China successfully uses this method of discouraging imports by deliberately shitting on their own currency. However to do that smart way you have to depreciate your currency carefully over multiple years, not just crush it 60% in 3 months time like fucking idiots at CBR.

    Personalty i don't think current stability of Ruble is anything to be proud of, fixation on it is damaging and is primitive monetarism that can vary harmful for the economy in the long run. In general people that fixate  on currency are missing the point, economy is not money, economy are labour, raw materials and means of production. Country, under some circumstances, can deliberately devaluate its currency to facilitate those 3 actually important factors.

    Now Glazyev is very bitter abut that sudden 60% forced devaluation of rouble because he was working very hard to promote ruble as main means of payment among CIS countries. To be used as such currency does not have to be especially valued, or even stable, all it has to do is be predictable. So even if currency continuously devaluates some 10% per annum if that devaluation is constant and predictable it can be accounted for in contracts. However if you have idiots that crush it or bloat it arbitrarily, at double digit percentages, at monthly bases, you cant really use that currency for foreign trade contracts. If CBR allows, or even facilitates, such sudden swings they pretty much destroy Glazyevs efforts to promote ruble as means of payment instead of $ or € in  trade between for example Russia and Kazakhstan, or Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
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    Post  Austin on Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:18 pm

    Kudrin Center calls for a way to accelerate GDP growth without investing in ₽40 trillion

    Подробнее на РБК:
    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/05/04/2018/5ac538249a7947548df1b3b8

    To accelerate the growth of the economy to a rate higher than the world average, it is necessary to add to it almost 5 million employed and 40 trillion rubles. additional investments for six years - or to increase productivity, write Alexey Kudrin and experts ЦСР

    There are two ways to achieve economic growth rates above 4%. The first - "add to it" 4.6 million employed and 40 trillion rubles. additional investments in fixed assets (beyond what is expected). The second option is to increase aggregate factor productivity (an indicator that takes into account the efficiency of labor, capital and technological progress, and the infrastructure and quality of market and regulatory institutions). This was reported by experts of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin in his report "The New Technological Revolution: Challenges and Opportunities for Russia" (available to RBC).

    The preparation of proposals to be published in the next issue of the journal Voprosy ekonomiki was dealt with by the director of the Institute of Industrial Markets and Infrastructure of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Kudrin's adviser Georgy Idrisov, the vice president of the Center for Strategic Studies, Vladimir Knyaginin, Kudrin himself, Elena Rozhkova.

    Stagnation contrary to rhetoric

    Russia needs to increase labor productivity in order to eliminate the backlog from other countries, but so far "there is a low level of innovation potential, insufficiently high results of scientific and technological activity, modest results in the field of digitalization and platformization of the economy," the paper says. In the technological revolution, Russia is included with "delay", and its positions are still weak, despite the popularity of the modernization agenda. The contribution of aggregate factor productivity to GDP growth is "not large," the CSR believes.

    The proposals of the CSR, which prepared the economic program for President Vladimir Putin, are divided into several blocks. First, modernization of traditional sectors - fuel and energy complex, agro-industrial complex, metallurgy, mining industry and others is necessary. To this end, the government could institutionalize new principles for assessing the development of technologies that will improve the quality of technological management. Since the state's share in the economy is high (46%, according to the calculations of the CSR), it is necessary to ensure in state-owned companies "the transition to advanced production technologies, digital and platform solutions, the release of new generations of products", and improve technological regulation.

    More Risk

    The second block is the expansion of the share of high-tech sectors from the current less than 1% of GDP to 10% in six years. The CSR proposes to "scale" the measures of the National Technological Initiative (state program to support promising industries). It is necessary to create "consortiums in the format of investment and technology partnerships" following the example of other countries - they "will fill the shortage of the cooperative culture" and expand the planning horizon, the CSR consider. The third block concerns digitization, which "is expressed not only in the replacement of analogue digital control systems, but also in the intellectualization of technological objects and systems." Digitalization should include, among other things, critical infrastructure sectors: health care, science, banks, fuel and energy complex (including the defense industry and nuclear energy), state administration.

    The CSD also proposes to reorient development institutions from financing low-risk projects (mainly these are late stages of the investment cycle) to projects of the early stages, "which can become the basis for future technological breakthroughs." In addition, it is necessary to create new development institutions and finance, in particular, medium-sized businesses. The fifth block in the work of the CSR is the formation and preservation of a scientific base for which reform of the management of science is needed. Thus, experts consider it necessary to create a new federal body of executive power, which will deal with regulatory and legal regulation in higher education and science.

    On the task to increase GDP per capita by 1.5 times Putin said in his message . While the growth rate in Russia is much lower than the world average - in 2017 GDP grew by 1.5%. World economic growth,according to the World Bank, was 3% (2.3% in developed countries and 4.3% in developing countries). In 2018, the World Bank expects world GDP growth of 3.1%, and the Russian - by 1.7% (Ministry of Economic Development is more positive, its forecast is 2.1%).

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