Russian Economy General News: #7

PapaDragon wrote:Russia’s inflation rate plunges in July

http://theduran.com/russia-inflation-rate-plunges-july/

Russia should have an inflation of 6-7% and robust GDP growth. Instead it has an inflation of 4% and an economy destroying prime interest
rate of 9.5%. The CBR should be setting the prime rate to 4%. Before Nabiullina and the monetarist swine coup at the CBR, the prime interest
rate hit 8.5% with an inflation of 13%. In fact, the prime rate was systematically well below the inflation rate when Russia saw its largest
GDP growth rates. The current 9.5% prime rate is criminal.

KomissarBojanchev wrote:...........

I wish there is a stalinist revolution in Russia that will end the folly of the free market and remove bourgeois control of Russian economic policy once and for all since Putin and the siloviki are too in bed with these hacks and assorted scum. Putin surely makes lavish banquets and has good friendship with the oligarch and banker dogshit.

...........

Sure you are right there should be one in Russia.... right after they have one in Bulgaria. A big one that will certainly solve all the problems.

And not just in Bulgaria but also in India, Spain and all other places from where we have these geniuses suggesting all these brilliant solutions that they expect others to test-run because they either don't have the balls to try themselves or they know already that it is dumbest idea ever.

And why are you whining about? Bulgaria had exactly what you just suggested for 5 decades and you weren't too happy with it. In fact, you fought hard to keep it from happening and, once it did, you fought just as hard to get of it.

So please, if you have any more brilliant ideas try it on yourself first.

And be careful not to break your armchair.

PapaDragon wrote:

KomissarBojanchev wrote:...........

I wish there is a stalinist revolution in Russia that will end the folly of the free market and remove bourgeois control of Russian economic policy once and for all since Putin and the siloviki are too in bed with these hacks and assorted scum. Putin surely makes lavish banquets and has good friendship with the oligarch and banker dogshit.

...........

Sure you are right there should be one in Russia.... right after they have one in Bulgaria. A big one that will certainly solve all the problems.

And not just in Bulgaria but also in India, Spain and all other places from where we have these geniuses suggesting all these brilliant solutions that they expect others to test-run because they either don't have the balls to try themselves or they know already that it is dumbest idea ever.

And why are you whining about? Bulgaria had exactly what you just suggested for 5 decades and you weren't too happy with it. In fact, you fought hard to keep it from happening and, once it did, you fought just as hard to get of it.

So please, if you have any more brilliant ideas try it on yourself first.

And be careful not to break your armchair.

Brilliant retort.

Sure you are right there should be one in Russia.... right after they have one in Bulgaria. A big one that will certainly solve all the problems.

I absolutely want one also in Bulgaria.

And not just in Bulgaria but also in India, Spain and all other places from where we have these geniuses suggesting all these brilliant solutions that they expect others to test-run because they either don't have the balls to try themselves or they know already that it is dumbest idea ever.

Of course. The working class especially in india is being exploited to maintain western global supremacy.

And why are you whining about? Bulgaria had exactly what you just suggested for 5 decades and you weren't too happy with it. In fact, you fought hard to keep it from happening and, once it did, you fought just as hard to get of it.

Socialism collapsed not because it wasn't socially better than the disgusting capitalist order of before, but because of the retarded decisions of the politicians then and their subversion by the western empire. Bulgarians voted for socialist parties in the early 90s, but neoliberal fake protests ousted them and now there is a great amount of lies propogated by the bulgarian bourgeoisie and former fake socialists that ousted the People's republic.

In fact, you fought hard to keep it from happening and

Bulgaria never sent troops to fight the USSR and didn't fight when the USSR entered its territory. The same can't be said for chetniks. Also Bulgaria wasnt the one to betray Stalin and cosy up to the west like Tito.

Bulgaria never sent troops to fight the USSR and didn't fight when the USSR entered its territory. The same can't be said for chetniks. Also Bulgaria wasnt the one to betray Stalin and cosy up to the west like Tito.

Chetniks fought against USSR when Soviets arrived? Damn, you must have uncovered some fresh historical documents because this is first time I (or anyone else) hear about it

I had no idea they lasted that long

And if you have complaints about Tito's politics take it up with someone who supported it because it sure as shit wasn't us

How will Russia Reduce Dependency on USD

Yaroslav Lissovolik
ECONOMIST, PROGRAM DIRECTOR OF THE VALDAI CLUB

https://rns.online/opinions/Kak-Rossiya-mozhet-snizit-zavisimost-ekonomiki-ot-dollara-SSHa--2017-08-07/

As one of the responses to the expansion of US sanctions Russia intends to reduce dependence on the US dollar as a reference currency, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov in an interview, "International Affairs". According to him, within the framework of import substitution policies and measures will be taken to reduce dependence on the US payment systems.

From the point of view of possible measures to reduce dependence on the dollar, Russia could primarily promote its payment system, as well as payment systems of other developing countries, primarily the BRICS countries. Such discussions have already taken place at various venues in the context of the discussion of the interaction of the BRICS countries. The same kind of discussions were held in the context of the negotiations on a possible new format of cooperation between the BRICS countries called BRIX +, which involves interaction not just between the BRICS countries, but also between their key regional integration groups, within which the more intensive use of the national currencies of the BRICS countries In mutual settlements.

It is clear that in the Eurasian space there is an opportunity to further increase the role of the ruble in mutual settlements, especially since recently we see that against the backdrop of stabilization of the Russian economy, against the background of ruble stabilization, the share of settlements in rubles in the area of ​​the EAEC countries has increased and the potential for further The strengthening of the ruble's positions and the simultaneous de-dollarization of the country's economy, of course, is there. In this direction, measures are being taken by the countries of this regional integration group.

It is possible to use the most liquid and demanded currencies of the BRICS countries, such as the yuan, as a means of settlement, as a reserve currency. There are still some measures to be taken here, including in the area of ​​some reduction of currency restrictions on the part of China. But in general, the potential for more intensive use of the renminbi is, we see an increase in settlements and operations in RMB, which go between Russia and China. In this respect, probably, there is a potential for this kind of gradual increase in the share of the renminbi and other currencies of developed and developing markets as tools that could allow replacing the dollar or the euro.

In general, one of the key factors that limits the opportunities for more intensive use of the ruble and other currencies of the BRICS countries is the raw material dependence of our countries, and probably the long-term prospects for more intensive use of the ruble and other currencies of the BRICS countries in international settlements will depend on Structural measures that are aimed at reducing the dependence on raw materials and, correspondingly, reducing the high volatility that we have seen in the past few years as a reflection of this dependence on prices For raw materials.

Russia should demand rubles for all its exports and domestic transactions. This creates natural demand for rubles and helps regulate the exchange rate.
Allowing dollar transactions undermines the ruble by increasing demand for dollars at the expense of rubles.

Ex-Deputy Minister of Finance estimated the chances of Russia to abandon the dollar

https://ria.ru/economy/20170807/1499903661.html

Russian Forex up to $418 Billion

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUREFEG:IND


I wonder why CBR is so transparent about Forex reserves and updates it so regularly , Better show the reserve as $380-390 billion and shift the remaining about to either Finance Ministry or keep it closed

Russia cant afford to be so open with its forex reserves when it is under attack by the same folks whose forex is being used

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/russia-launches-100-million-bitcoin-mining-operation/ri20641?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Looks like Russia is now getting into cryptocurrency

Smart Policy: How Should Russia Respond to US Sanctions?

The dollar is losing weight
The share of the US currency in Russia's external debt fell to a minimum of three years

https://rg.ru/2017/08/09/dolia-dollara-vo-vneshnem-dolge-rossii-rezko-snizilas.html

The share of the dollar in the external debt of the country, according to the Bank of Russia, fell to 60 percent - the minimum of the last three years. The share of the ruble, on the contrary, has grown significantly.

What is the reason for such a change in the structure of the country's external debt and how much of the Russian economy as a whole now depends on the American currency, RG asked experts.

External debt - loans that the state, as well as banks, companies and other organizations, take from creditors outside the country. The bulk of the Russian foreign debt, as well as other countries, accounted for the dollar, although recently the American currency began to lose weight. According to experts, this is mainly due to the continued strengthening of the ruble exchange rate.

"According to our estimates, the contribution of the exchange rate in reducing the share of dollar debt amounted to more than 50 percent since the beginning of 2016," said Vasilisa Baranova, junior analyst of the Research and Forecasting Group of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA). Also, according to her, this process could be facilitated by an increase in the demand of foreigners for the ruble debt of the state and non-financial companies due to expectations of strengthening the ruble and lowering interest rates, and in addition the overall stability of the financial system.

Our economy has achieved a comfortable level of dollarization, but there is also a resource for further reduction

If we talk in general about the Russian economy, then the level of the presence of the American currency in it has also significantly decreased in recent years. "Dollarization of assets for the year from March 2016 to March 2017 decreased from 35 to 28 percent, and dollarization of liabilities in the banking system - from 34 to 26 percent," said Mikhail Demidenko, deputy director of the Center for Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank ).

This is due to the fact that, on the one hand, the Central Bank pursues a policy aimed at stabilizing inflation, and on the other hand it supports the floating exchange rate of the national currency. It is less stable than inflation, naturally, for people and companies, if their expenses are in rubles, there is a desire to store money in rubles, in order to avoid unforeseen losses from exchange rate fluctuations. This is the main reason why dollarization is falling in Russia, Demidenko notes.

This practice can be set as an example for other countries, he believes. Just low inflation to reduce the role of the dollar in the economy is not enough. For example, in Armenia, where there is deflation, dollarization is very high - more than 60 percent: both on deposits and on loans. Because Armenia de facto carries out a policy similar to the stabilization of the exchange rate against the US dollar. When the exchange rate is not volatile, and inflation is more volatile, everyone starts to store money in more reliable instruments, namely, in US dollars.

As for Russia, it has already reached a comfortable level of dollarization. "We could drop even lower - to the region of 20 percent, but given that there are many exporters and importers in Russia, and they need to have currency accounts, this level is enough: we will not achieve zero dollarization in the banking system," says the expert. .

But there remains a resource in terms of reducing dollarization of household savings: if citizens increasingly prefer to keep money in rubles and use rubles, the role of the dollar in the economy will continue to fall.

Another resource is mutual settlements with partners in the EEA, namely the increase in the share of national currencies and in particular the Russian ruble. Here everything will depend on the degree of confidence in the ruble from both Russian agents and partners in the EEMP, Demidenko believes. If it increases, the volume of settlements in national currencies and rubles will grow. For this, Russia needs to get rid of the dependence of the national currency rate on oil prices. "One of the tools is a new budget rule," Demidenko said, "In fact, Russia is preparing to live in a situation where the price of oil will always remain at $ 40 per barrel for the Russian economy." All revenues received from a higher price will go to Reserves, which should stabilize the Russian ruble and make it less sensitive to changes in oil prices. "

On the other hand, Russia is successfully fighting against inflation, like an expert. If we manage to keep it in an area declared goal of 4 per cent for a long time, and stabilize inflation expectations in the long term, this will spur much confidence in the Russian ruble.

* This is an expanded version of the text published in the "RG"

The Accounts Chamber in the first half of the year revealed more than 2.5 thousand violations for 1.1 trillion rubles

As a result of the first half of 2017, the Accounts Chamber of Russia in the course of monitoring activities identified 2,631 violations for a total of 1.13 trillion rubles. This was announced at the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin by the Chairman of the Accounting Chamber, Tatyana Golikova.

"If at the end of 2016 we had 965 billion rubles and 3,845 violations, then in the first half of 2017 it is 2,631 and 1,13 trillion," Golikova said.

Golikova also noted that, on average, one control measure in 2016 accounted for 15 violations and about 3.7 billion rubles, and in the first half of 2017 - 18 violations and 6.9 billion rubles. Most violations were revealed in the sphere of budgetary and accounting.

According to her, the volume of violations in the first half of the year increased due to "disclosure", which became possible due to the introduction in 2016 of the information system of remote audit, which allows to receive information on-line, to monitor violations and to exercise preliminary control.

In addition, the Chamber of Accounts has developed a "financial control and audit portal", in which 456 various bodies that carry out internal control participate.

Bershidsky is once again first to bravely taste the bitter snack from buffet of reality 

Don't Expect Anti-Russian Ardor from Germany


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-09/don-t-expect-anti-russian-ardor-from-germany

PapaDragon wrote:Bershidsky is once again first to bravely taste the bitter snack from buffet of reality 

Don't Expect Anti-Russian Ardor from Germany


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-09/don-t-expect-anti-russian-ardor-from-germany

Yeah, I don't think so Papa. In the article, it talks how they would have a plan for Putin to fix his mistakes without losing face. We all know they will simply state "Give up Crimea back to Ukraine (even though historically it was never part of Ukraine) and all will be good!" which will never fly and not save face for its own people. Funny how it never states who it will save face with. Because they want Crimea and Russians view Crimea as theirs, that is including the people in Crimea. If they give it up, it would be a political suicide and the party will never gain a vote again, add to that, it would bring rise to some real scary nationalists whom we may not want.

So they aren't stupid, or convinced of the Germans.

Nothing is to be expected from NATO. They are the rats who will sink together with their captain, Uncle Scumbag.

miketheterrible wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:Bershidsky is once again first to bravely taste the bitter snack from buffet of reality 

Don't Expect Anti-Russian Ardor from Germany


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-09/don-t-expect-anti-russian-ardor-from-germany

Yeah, I don't think so Papa.  In the article, it talks how they would have a plan for Putin to fix his mistakes without losing face.  We all know they will simply state "Give up Crimea back to Ukraine (even though historically it was never part of Ukraine) and all will be good!" which will never fly and not save face for its own people.  Funny how it never states who it will save face with.  Because they want Crimea and Russians view Crimea as theirs, that is including the people in Crimea.  If they give it up, it would be a political suicide and the party will never gain a vote again, add to that, it would bring rise to some real scary nationalists whom we may not want.

So they aren't stupid, or convinced of the Germans.

Hey I ain't sayin' that there will be some big events or anything. I just found it interesting that someone like Bershidsky is getting creative with groupthink.

As for "fixing mistakes without loosing face" BS it's standard mantra by now, usual crap they tell themselves to make them feel like they are still in the driver's seat.

https://www.rt.com/business/399195-turkey-warns-mirror-russia-tomatoes/

Looks like the Turks are going to be at it again. You can never trust a turkroach obviously. Wonder if they will attempt to hold the Turk Stream hostage?

I still stand by my statement - Build more LNG plants in Russia and tell everyone to fuck off. If they want the LNG, they can purchase it directly at from Russia at their border and find their own method of transportation or pay an additional fee.

Only thing I also believe in is that Russia should own plants in nations like Turkey and what not to convert the LNG back into gas form, to guarantee orders from Turkey. Outside of that, this is getting to be rather sad.

.
Daily Koolaid. Don't know where to put this so putting it here.



The problem isn’t Putin, it’s Russia

http://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-values-problem-for-united-states/



Still clinging to that "Ukrainian territorial integrity" mantra but at least they are being honest about rest of it (kinda)

Funny how everyone is pacifist lately since these are same people who advocated military solution with Russia...

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/96734/

The surplus in Russia's foreign trade increased by 33.4%

Positive balance of foreign trade of the Russian Federation, defined on methodology of the balance of payments in the first half of 2017 amounted to $59.6 billion, which is 33.4 percent more than the same period in 2016, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Earlier, the Central Bank has estimated the trade surplus for the first half of 2017 at $59.1 billion Thus, the rating adjusted upwards. Exports in the first half of 2017 amounted to $166,2 billion, 29.6% more in exports in the first half of 2016 ($128,3 billion), reports "Interfax".

The volume of imports in the first half of 2017 increased by 27.4% to $106,6 billion compared to the first half of 2016 ($83,7 billion). Exports in the II quarter of 2017 increased in comparison with the I quarter by 1.7% to $83,4 billion, compared to $82,4 billion At the same time, imports in the second quarter was 21.9% more than in the first quarter ($58,6 billion against $48,0 billion).

As a result, the foreign trade surplus in the second quarter was 26.6% less than in I ($25.2 billion versus $34.4 billion). In June, the trade surplus increased compared to may by 2.0% to $8.7 billion, and exports by 4.8% to $29.5 billion, and imports by 6.0% to $20.8 billion.

According to updated in June in the baseline scenario of the Central Bank (at an oil price of $50 per barrel) foreign trade surplus of the Russian Federation in 2017 is expected to be $105 billion with exports at $323 billion and imports of $219 billion.

State programme for LNG

Sorry, link in Russian.

Alexey Khlebnikov‏ @AleksKhlebnikov 25m25 minutes ago

#Putin talked about #Russia's military budget cut. It is going to drop from 4.7% of GDP in 2016 to 2,9% in 2018.

https://www.newsru.com/russia/15aug2017/lodpongan.html

That's in line with Austin's statement

Austin wrote:Ex-Deputy Minister of Finance estimated the chances of Russia to abandon the dollar

https://ria.ru/economy/20170807/1499903661.html

the chances of Russia under Putin to abandon the dollar? look at this -->  
One in a billion.. in other words NEVER!!!..

The problems with Russia ,again is that Russia depends on The American world business..
American world business is the business banking alliance they have with Europe , Japan,
and Asian exporters of technology like SOuth Korea , taiwan ,Singapur etc..

So because neither Intel or Microsoft or Apple ,Internet ,american software industry ,
American music industry , Hollywood transfer anything in Rubles ,instead use dollars..
so Putin is doomed to fail ,on its "Pivot to Asia".  

IF American elite desire it ,tomorrow they can ban Russia from the internet ,from Visa/Mastercard ,the swift banking network and ban Europe/Japan business of trading with Russia.. they can do it .. make no mistake about it..  and why will Europe ,Japan and other top economies will prefer United States over Russia ,if American Elite force them to choose either Americans or RUssia but not both?  Because Putin's Russia is not a country
with Vision ,is not a country with leadership ,contrary to Americans.. Putin himself have told he is  not interested to compete with Americans or be a super power. He is a lame as duck Dinosaur . that continues to manage Russia in terms of profits and statistics. This year our economy increase 1% here or that. But never address the overwhelming influence Americans
Business have in Russia.  So to cut the dollar from Russia while 99% of Russians love the dollar
,love American tech companies..      

 So forget about the Belt Road of China or any fail miserable attempts of BRICS  to improve the standing of their nations. it just a distraction more than anything ,but not a real solution.
Only when Putin's get tired of being slapped in the face and kicked in the ass by Americans and humiliated and disrespected again and again and again and again and again and again and realize that perhaps he needs a different strategy for Russia ,and take the decision to make Russia great again.. To make Russia either alone by its own a leader or in combination with CHina an alternative to American most popular /most loved Business ,then until them.. we will be here discussing why Russia can't influence any nation and have no real allies other than rejected nations .

Is like trying to fight  Drugs or Pornography ,but while at the same time ,most people desire to consume it or see it.. so is a fight doomed to fail.

To defeat the Dollar for real , Russia offer an alternative to it.. is not only about Destroying the dollar ..but REPLACING IT too., and since Internet is dominated by Americans ,is their business,
and leading modern technology industry is also lead by Americans. Like Intel ,Apple Microsoft,
and so entertainment industry .. imagine yourself without a computer? or without internet?
Imagine Europe saying..alright no longer we will use internet and computers ,and will befriend now Russia.  

So Russia needs to develop a new System ,it can do it with an alliance.. of major powers.
But first Russia needs a real Leader , a real President with Vision of the future of Russia.
That desire to create an Alternative to the American world ,that does not ignore their technology domination and how they use it to influence the world towards their orbit.
because replacing the dollar while 99% of Russians love American world leading technology ,American entertainment ,and can't find a replacement for it ,on its own country is doomed to fail. Russia simply needs to show it have everything to replace United States.. and because Putin is so backward and he will never be able to do it alone with Russia.. then it have to be done with an alliance of nations in Asia, including China to replace (if not surpass) the business that Americans have no competition and Russia have allowed them to rule and dominate uncontested for so long. this is the only way for Russia to have a Chance to earn Respect in the world again. by being a Truly Independent Nation. But Putin's Russia ,he is completely completely unaware how his own policies threaten Russia nation security. Since he encourage
Americans to continue with their old sick habits of governing as if the planet was their property , and Putin own policies of Ignoring Americans influence in the world and policies of following the American system ,the american rules ,instead of becoming Independent of it.

All the economy so called "experts" suggesting Russia to nationalize its bank ,while ignoring
how much influence Americans business have over Russians citizens , is nothing more than suicide.. The economy of Russia is now what ? 1% growing?
What will happen if Americans manage to tight the control over Europe they have ,and manage to Pressure Europeans to cut all trade with Russia? then Russia economy will completely collapse its energy business to EUrope. Russia simply needs to create a Modern Economy that only a few most developed countries can compete. Create business that have no competition or very little and are sanctions proof.. Putin is wasting major opportunities in Space and wasting Russia budget in things that will not help Russia in any way ,shape or form ,to become a more influential nation in the world. As it is Putin's sick obsession with Sports. and victory parades. Nothing promotes more patriotism than your country being the most developed country in the world with being seen as the leaders in modern business.

Alexander Mercouris: CONFIRMED: Russia's economy markedly accelerated April to June

Faster growth in output against a background of rapidly falling inflation and higher saving

Rosstat – Russia’s state statistical agency – has now provided official figures confirming what was already known, which is that the Russian economy accelerated markedly in the second quarter, growing at an annual rate of 2.5% in the period April to June as opposed to 0.5% in the period January to March.

In addition the normally highly cautious Central Bank is now expecting either zero inflation or deflation (ie. falling prices) in August.

The latter is more likely as food production in Russia continues to grow, with the harvest now expected to be bigger than earlier estimates and total food production in Russia now expected to exceed last year’s total despite the cold spring and early summer.

Higher food production in the summer months traditionally translates into falling food prices in the summer, pulling overall inflation down, and it now seems all but certain that this will again be the pattern this year.

GDP growth in Russia tends to be higher in the second half of the year than in the first, though this is not a fixed pattern.  However with inflation continuing to fall and food production continuing to rise it is likely to be the case this year.

If so the possibility that in raw output terms the Russian economy this year will fully make up all the losses it suffered during the recession can no longer be completely discounted.

Since the recovery is investment and production led – as the Russian authorities have always wanted – it will take a little longer before Russian living standards fully recover to their pre-recession levels, though that too now looks certain to happen much sooner than anyone (including the Russian authorities themselves) expected.

Regardless, the economy should be on a steady rising curve by the time of the Presidential election next year, with the population becoming increasingly conscious of the fact.  If one supposes that Russian economic policy like economic policy in the West is driven by political concerns – which for the record I don’t think is the case at all – then the Russian authorities have achieved their objective of creating conditions for economic optimism before the election next year.

The observation that is often made about rising Russian growth rates this year is that at 2-3% growth in Russia remains unspectacular by world standards.

This however overlooks the key point that the priority for the Russian authorities is still not the overall growth rate but establishing a low inflation environment by holding inflation down below an annual rate of 4%.

The result is that Russia now has real interest rates of around 5% in contrast to the Western economies, which are generally growing at slightly below the current quarterly growth rate in Russia, but where real interest rates are either zero or even below zero.

The result is that growth in Russia is taking place against a background of increasing saving – of which there are now the first definite signs – whereas in the West it is happening against a background of rising debt secured against inflating asset prices (mainly land and stocks).

In the US and Britain higher saving usually takes place when companies and especially consumers have to pay down debt, and is generally a cause of recession because it leads to corresponding cuts in investment and demand.

Russia by contrast – through the deliberate actions of its government – is gradually becoming one of those economies – like Germany and the Far Eastern economies – where investment and demand are financed not through debt secured against inflating asset prices but through savings, which are accumulating in what is steadily becoming a low inflation environment.  Moreover the high real interest rates, by preventing the price of assets like land and stocks from rising too rapidly, tends to push investment away from those sectors into sectors like manufacturing and farming which the government sees as more productive.

That has historically led in those countries which have followed this model to higher investment in those sectors of the economy – first and foremost manufacturing, but also in Russia’s case farming – which lead to higher output, which is precisely what we see starting to happen in Russia now.