Russian Economy General News: #7

miketheterrible wrote:

Austin wrote:Real incomes of Russian residents in three years decreased by almost 20%

https://rns.online/economy/VSHE-realnie-dohodi-naseleniya-Rossii-s-oktyabrya-2014-goda-sokratilis-pochti-na-20--2017-08-01/

The real incomes of the Russian population have fallen by 19.2% since October 2014, May 2017 was the 31st month of the reduction in the incomes of citizens, the monitoring "Population of Russia in 2017: incomes, expenses and social well-being", prepared by the Institute of Social Policy of the National Research Institute HSE.

"May 2017 essentially became the thirty-first month of the reduction in real incomes of Russians, and compared to October 2014 - the last period of a steady growth in real incomes - the decline for the past time amounted to 19.2%," the HSE study says.

Since the beginning of 2017, real monetary incomes of citizens have decreased by 1.8% compared to the same period last year.

"... Starting from February, statistics fix the fall in real incomes of the population, and following the results of the first five months of 2017, their decrease relative to the corresponding period of the previous year reached 1.8%. At the same time, in nominal terms in May of the current year, disposable monetary incomes of the population, according to Rosstat, amounted to 29,136 rubles, "the monitoring said.

At the same time, the average salary in 2017 continues to grow and in January-May increased by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, reaching 40.64 thousand rubles, for the first time exceeded data as of October 2014 (by 1.6 %).

how are they calculating this? And I am afraid to ask, in what currency?

So far, with total inflation since 2014 and the increase in incomes, this doesn't mathematically add up. I'm assuming they are taking in exchange rates into account.

Austin wrote:JIM RICKARDS:  4 Financial Components to Improved Russian Relations

https://dailyreckoning.com/financial-components-russian-relations/

JohninMK wrote:If you want to read a very, very pessimistic interpretation of the potential future impact of the sanctions on Russia, how they have been very carefully thought out and specifically targetted to cause strategic disruption, you should read this.

http://johnhelmer.net/us-senate-strikes-for-russian-equality-the-oligarchs-targeted-in-new-sanctions-bill/

miketheterrible wrote:

JohninMK wrote:If you want to read a very, very pessimistic interpretation of the potential future impact of the sanctions on Russia, how they have been very carefully thought out and specifically targetted to cause strategic disruption, you should read this.

http://johnhelmer.net/us-senate-strikes-for-russian-equality-the-oligarchs-targeted-in-new-sanctions-bill/

He seems to fail to acknowledge that a lot of the current oligarchs support Putin and most of them have and made their wealth in Russia with some odd exceptions.  All this will do is if it does give some idea to the oligarchs in Russia to turn on the government, then they should also learn from history what will happen to these oligarchs.  Evident of the Russian government fining the billionaire of Michel on the air quality in a city, shows that they are not immune to the court system and these guys could instantly find themselves in prison with all their wealth stripped and sold to the highest bidders in the country.

Problem with John I noticed is that he think it is "Putin vs everyone in the government".  That really isn't true at all.  Look at North Korea and alike.  Many Oligarchs with lots of money in foreign and domestic.  Doesn't mean that they are all friendly of the US.

If there was indeed some kind of "all of a sudden uprising" of the oligarchs, then it would have already happened before this.  There would have been calls by them in Russia prior to this bill even passing.  But not a peep.  Because in the end, these oligarchs know that their entire wealth would be at stake if they even decided to go against the Russian government, as most of their wealth was made inside the country.  That can easily be taken away and someone else whom is far more patriotic can obtain it.  They know this.

John thinks Russia is some kind of Venezuela or Ukraine.  He is a terrible reporter on these things lately.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

JohninMK wrote:If you want to read a very, very pessimistic interpretation of the potential future impact of the sanctions on Russia, how they have been very carefully thought out and specifically targetted to cause strategic disruption, you should read this.

http://johnhelmer.net/us-senate-strikes-for-russian-equality-the-oligarchs-targeted-in-new-sanctions-bill/

He seems to fail to acknowledge that a lot of the current oligarchs support Putin and most of them have and made their wealth in Russia with some odd exceptions.  All this will do is if it does give some idea to the oligarchs in Russia to turn on the government, then they should also learn from history what will happen to these oligarchs.  Evident of the Russian government fining the billionaire of Michel on the air quality in a city, shows that they are not immune to the court system and these guys could instantly find themselves in prison with all their wealth stripped and sold to the highest bidders in the country.

Problem with John I noticed is that he think it is "Putin vs everyone in the government".  That really isn't true at all.  Look at North Korea and alike.  Many Oligarchs with lots of money in foreign and domestic.  Doesn't mean that they are all friendly of the US.

If there was indeed some kind of "all of a sudden uprising" of the oligarchs, then it would have already happened before this.  There would have been calls by them in Russia prior to this bill even passing.  But not a peep.  Because in the end, these oligarchs know that their entire wealth would be at stake if they even decided to go against the Russian government, as most of their wealth was made inside the country.  That can easily be taken away and someone else whom is far more patriotic can obtain it.  They know this.

John thinks Russia is some kind of Venezuela or Ukraine.  He is a terrible reporter on these things lately.

Excellent observations.   The window for oligarch revolution has passed by 14 years ago around the time of Berezovsky's
flight to London and Khodorkovsky's jailing.    Putin is demeaned as a thug by assorted propagandists and haters but he
is a great statesman.   He basically coopted the oligarchy by laying out the rules for them:  the state won't go after
their wealth if they play by the rules and obey the law.   Most Russian oligarchs had the IQ to take a good deal when
it was offered.   There is no freaking way these oligarchs would now throw Russia into turmoil and pave the way for
an invasion by NATO with some BS revolution.   They know that NATO oligarchs will not make room for them and they
will be crushed together with the rest of Russia.  

PapaDragon wrote:I tend to be on more cautious side with these things but I do agree with you guys here, I don't see how they can hope to start some oligarch uprising.

Author mentions joining Khodorkovsky's open rebellion or something but forgets that Khodorkovsky is openly rebeling precisely because he is dirt poor (by oligarch standards​).

Only thing this does is that it motivates new rich people to stay out of politics whichbis hardly a bad thing and ones that do choose to be involved in politics are motivated to be loyal to the country.

Also Putin, unlike Yeltsin, did not come into power with backing of oligarchs, he was backed by security apparatus instead and they would not and will not tolerate any oligarchic power plays. They would do opposite of tolerating it and be very blunt about it. If security apparatus didn't fold during the time when Russia was disintegrating why would they do so now over someone else's profit margin?

Unless I am missing something?

The signing of new sanctions against Russia into law by the US president leads to several consequences. First, any hope of improving our relations with the new US administration is over. Second, the US just declared a full-scale trade war on Russia. Third, the Trump administration demonstrated it is utterly powerless, and in the most humiliating manner transferred executive powers to Congress. This shifts the alignment of forces in US political circles.

Austin wrote:

The signing of new sanctions against Russia into law by the US president leads to several consequences. First, any hope of improving our relations with the new US administration is over. Second, the US just declared a full-scale trade war on Russia. Third, the Trump administration demonstrated it is utterly powerless, and in the most humiliating manner transferred executive powers to Congress. This shifts the alignment of forces in US political circles.

US was always at full scale trade war since 2014 and prior to that overtly and covertly they were trying to scuttle South and Nord Stream-2 now they have declared their intention to scuttle Nord Stream-2 and have explictly mentioned and targetted it in sanction.

Wake up Medvedev and Smell The Coffee  

https://ria.ru/economy/20170802/1499646949.html

MOSCOW, August 2 - RIA Novosti. The US authorities have chosen the fuel and energy sector of Russia as the main pain point for new sanctions. This may create risks for the implementation of new oil and gas projects, not only in Russia, but also affect the energy security of Europe, analysts, business and officials say.

The last three years have taught the Russian economy to live in conditions of external constraints, companies and banks have become accustomed to working under sanctions without giving up financial plans.

Economists do not expect the rapid reaction of the ruble and the massive flight of investors from Russian assets in response to a new round of US sanctions, the effects on the financial market can be only minor and short-term.

"There are a number of sanctions that tighten the procedure for financing banks, impose additional restrictions on the energy sector, but in principle, given what has happened since 2014, the new sanctions are not so terrible," - believes the chief analyst at Uralsib Bank, Alexey Devyatov.

The essence of new

President of the United States Donald Trump on Wednesday signed a package of anti-Russian sanctions, which, among other things, expands a number of sectoral sanctions.

In particular, the new law reduces the maximum term for financing Russian banks under US sanctions up to 14 days, oil and gas companies - up to 60 days (now it's 30 days and 90 days respectively).

In addition, the range of deepwater and Arctic offshore projects is being adjusted, as well as oil and gas projects with hard-to-recover reserves, which are prohibited from supplying equipment and technologies. If earlier it was a question of all such projects on the territory of the Russian Federation with the participation of subordinated individuals and legal entities, now sanctions only concern new projects, but without geo-referencing. Under the restrictions are all new projects in which Russian sub-company companies own 33% or more.

The new US sanctions suggest that the president will be able to impose sanctions on individuals investing in construction of Russian export pipelines more than $ 5 million per year or $ 1 million at a time.

In addition, sanctions can be imposed for the provision of services, technology, providing information support for the construction and modernization of Russian export pipelines, including those in operation. At the same time, the bill specifies that the US will continue to oppose the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

Restrictive measures are also envisaged for persons investing more than $ 10 million or facilitating such investments if these investments help the Russian Federation to privatize state assets for the purpose of illegally enriching government officials of the Russian Federation, their families and relatives.

Energy Projects
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin believes that the tightening of US sanctions will directly damage the business interests of European companies and the EU's energy security, and significantly restrict the powers of the US president.

British BP does not see any significant adverse effects that could bring new US sanctions against the Russian Federation, BP CEO Bob Dudley said. "For three years we managed to work well, observing all instructions, and it seems to us that these new sanctions will not change the current situation," he concluded earlier.

The chairman of the board of German Wintershall, Mario Meren, who opposed new US sanctions, believes that sanctions against Russia should not be used to promote their own interests, for example, the sale of American liquefied natural gas.
"It seems that geo-economics now sets the rules for the game, and we, the company whose interests and projects it affects, serve only as a ping-pong ball in it," Meren said earlier.

The head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin, also believes that the sanctions regime is used by the US as an element of unfair competition for the replacement of Russian companies, primarily Gazprom, from the energy market in Europe.

According to the deputy head of the analytical department of the investment company Sovlink, Olga Belenkaya, although the sanctions strike is aimed at the fuel and energy sector, even its influence will be limited to the oil and gas sector, because sanctions are already being applied to offshore development, to extraction of shale oil, to new projects.

"Much will depend on whether it will be possible to find a countermechanism in order that the same European companies or Asian companies could participate in the financing and technological support of these projects, if not, it will be quite negative. But for the economy as a whole, there will not be A strong blow, but unpleasant, "- she said.

Financial risks

The head of the Ministry of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov expressed the hope that there will not be a significant outflow of investors' funds from Russian securities with the introduction of new sanctions.

Buyers of a significant part of Russian securities, including OFZ, are foreign investors, but they are not speculators, but institutional investors, in particular pension funds, which pursue a fairly conservative policy and hold their assets for a long time.

The new sanctions also provide that within half a year (180 days) after the adoption of the law on sanctions against the Russian Federation, the US Congress will meet to discuss the possibility of expanding restrictive measures on Russia's public debt.

"What can be really unpleasant is the possibility of imposing a ban on foreigners to keep our sovereign debt - if that happens, it will lead to a significant outflow of capital, even if these sanctions affect a new debt." It is clear that many will decide to get rid of the old debt and reduce the portfolio of other Russian Assets, not only OFZ, "explained Devyatov from Uralsib.

According to Natalia Porokhova, head of the research and forecasting group of ACRA, the Russian economy has already largely adapted to US sanctions, and every new expansion has less influence on its sustainability. The financial sector, she said, also adapted: the share of its external debt decreased from 13.5% in 2014 to 9% in 2017, so the impact of new restrictions on it will be negligible.

"In the foreign exchange market, one can probably say that the market reaction is not excessive, and, probably, there is still a calculation that the Central Bank will partially neutralize these negative impulses for the ruble," the program director of the Valdai Club believes Yaroslav Lissovolik.

He explained that given that the weakening of the ruble could give a new impetus to inflation, the Central Bank will try to extinguish it by tightening its rhetoric and maintaining a relatively high interest rate. "In principle, I think that due to the actions of the Central Bank, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will probably not significantly weaken, thanks to this fairly tough and well thought-out position of the Central Bank," the economist noted.

"The expectation that this law will be signed and the passage in the Congress has already been monitored by the market has already exerted pressure on the ruble rate." Even with relatively high oil prices, the ruble remained under pressure, because sanctions are geopolitical risks, tensions that adversely affected And will affect the ruble's exchange rate, which will further exert pressure on the ruble exchange rate, but much will depend on market conditions, oil prices, "Belenkaya from Sovlink explained.

Sanctions are not a hindrance to growth

The sanctions of the West helped Russia pay attention to the internal problems of the economy, which entered the phase of active growth, despite the continued low prices for oil, said on Tuesday the Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin.

According to him, the sanctions in the last few years have taught Russia what to expect first of all for oneself, for the development of their own productions, the development of small and medium-sized businesses, something that the external environment will not influence.

"In fact, our macroeconomic policy is structured in such a way that external shocks related to sanctions do not have a very serious impact on the Russian economy.Therefore, we need to solve our own problems, look at what is happening and how our enterprises develop , Try to help them as much as possible, and only together we will achieve success, and sanctions will be useless, "the minister said.

The Russian economy has already largely adapted to the difficult external conditions, and the latest expansion of US sanctions against Russia will not cause it significant and irreparable damage, adviser to the Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov agrees.

"Although, of course, we do not get a few tenths of the annual GDP growth rate because of the sanctions, but nevertheless, nevertheless, we can state a certain adaptation of our Russian economy to these difficult external conditions," concluded the expert. .

The balance of the foreign trade balance of the Russian Federation in January-June 2017 was positive and amounted to $ 66.8 billion, according to the materials of the Federal Customs Service (FCS).

The indicator exceeded the level of the same period in 2016 by $ 15.9 billion (or 31.2%).

The volume of exports from Russia in the reporting period amounted to $ 168.6 billion. It grew by 28.7%. Import increased by 27.2% and reached $ 101.8 billion.

Thus, in the period from January to June 2017, Russia's foreign trade turnover amounted to $ 270.4 billion. It increased by 28.1%.

miketheterrible wrote:https://tacticalinvestor.com/despite-sanctions-russias-sberbank-overflowing-dollars/
Despite sanctions Russia’s Sberbank overflowing with dollars

KomissarBojanchev wrote:Why isn't more Russian media exposing how the neoliberal idiocy of the Russian central bank is threatening the economic and wage growth for ordinary Russians so there can be enough public support for the antlanticist oligarchs and bankers to be fired and their assets confiscated?

I wish there is a stalinist revolution in Russia that will end the folly of the free market and remove bourgeois control of Russian economic policy once and for all since Putin and the siloviki are too in bed with these hacks and assorted scum. Putin surely makes lavish banquets and has good friendship with the oligarch and banker dogshit.

The fact that Putin listens to Kudrin and Nabiullina more than actual geniuses and experts such as Nikolai Starikov, Ruslan Ostashko, and Rostislav Ishchenko who have the Russian working classes' and economies interests at heart proves that United Russia is detrimental to Russia's economy.

You claiming that Putin cant do anything because the central bank is a private entity  shows that the only ones capable of removing its crappy decisions are people who don't respect the bourgeois parasitic concept of private capital and banking.

miketheterrible wrote:I was reading that the inflation is becoming quite low, and in many respects to various products, deflating.  And now the banks in Russia are scrambling to curb any kind of deflation possible.

morons.