Russian Economy General News: #6

sepheronx wrote:All depends if the money is loaned now or way before. By sounds of it, it was way before with return of 2 - 3% interest which was standard interest rate loans from western institutions.  Using the NWF for it may or may not have been the best use of it as clearly as using the NWF for infrastructure would give better returns.  There may be more to it, or this is everything.  The gov is giving VEB a grace period in order to help them pay their loans back without outright giving money away like we did.  But at same time too, I am not for helping banks at all.

Agreed on all of this. I couldn't tell whether the debt being extended and interest rate reduced is all older debt or if some of it is more recent.

Russian economic achievements in 2015 defy crisis

Cheap crude threatens to deplete Russian reserves
https://www.rt.com/business/328369-cheap-crude-threatens-to-deplete/
Bit alarmist article. I hope Russia will be less dependent from crude prices in near future

The best macroeconomic piece  you will be all week - for certain.

http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=2551eec12ed752b7ad156097a&id=ea88d93ca9&e=dd79648feb

sepheronx wrote:This was posted in the oil thread and I already made my response.

These economists need to understand the reason why a reserve fund exists in the first place.

Media coverage of Russia's economy is hysterical nonsense.

In 2014 Russian companies (not government departments) paid off $130 billion in debt. They obviously
did not use the reserve fund to do it. The reserve fund is used by the government to reduce its deficit but not
by 100%. They could chose not to reduce the deficit at all with the reserve fund money but the point of the
reserve fund was and is to accumulate surpluses and spend them on deficits. It takes a special kind of stupid
to pretend that Russia's economy will be in perpetual contraction from 2015 onward.

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/?Prtid=mrrf_m

I do not see any depletion trend in the reserve fund. And even if there was, so f*cking what.

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:This was posted in the oil thread and I already made my response.

These economists need to understand the reason why a reserve fund exists in the first place.

Media coverage of Russia's economy is hysterical nonsense.  

In 2014 Russian companies (not government departments) paid off $130 billion in debt.   They obviously
did not use the reserve fund to do it.   The reserve fund is used by the government to reduce its deficit but not
by 100%.  They could chose not to reduce the deficit at all with the reserve fund money but the point of the
reserve fund was and is to accumulate surpluses and spend them on deficits.   It takes a special kind of stupid
to pretend that Russia's economy will be in perpetual contraction from 2015 onward.

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/?Prtid=mrrf_m

I do not see any depletion trend in the reserve fund.   And even if there was, so f*cking what.  

i have several questions.. if you can repply..

Can you explain me whats going on with the Ruble at 75 vs Dollar? I don't understand how this works.. 1) can you compare the Ruble with with Japan currency ?that supposedly have its yen at 100+ vs 1 dollar.  2)which currency is doing better vs Dollar Ruble of the Japanese one?  3)Can Russia economy operate if the rubles goes to 80 ,90 or how about 100?   And also 4)i dont understand why Russian bank in DEC 2014 used billions to stabilize the Ruble.. and now they don't burn reserves to defend the Ruble.. why are the actions different now?   Why in NOv-Dec 2014 Russia central bank use money to improve the Ruble vs Dollar ratio and now not?
What is different now?

Update... here is a new report about Russia economy that people might be
interested.

Time Is Running out for US Plan to Smash Russia Finances

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/saudi-iranian-spat-another-skirmish-oil-war/ri12096


Looking for your answer about the Japan vs Russia currency and if Russia can continue with
ruble at ~80 or more .. Japan seems to do it with 100 yen per dollar?

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation: the average price of a barrel of Urals oil in 2015 was $ 51.23

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2577284

MOSCOW, January 11. / TASS /. The average price of Urals oil in 2015 has developed at a rate of $ 51.23 per barrel, higher than the budgeted price of $ 50 per barrel. Told Tass leading expert of the Department of Tax and Customs Tariff Policy of the Ministry of Finance Alexander Sakovich.

In December 2015 the average price was $ 36.42 per barrel versus $ 42.11 per barrel in November. Thus, last month, the price decreased by 13.5%. Compared to December 2014 ($ 61.07 per barrel), the average price of Urals oil in December 2015 decreased by $ 24.65. In 2014, the average price for Urals was $ 97.6 per barrel. Budget 2016 also assumes oil prices of $ 50 per barrel, but now quotes at the February Brent futures traded at $ 32.53 a barrel.

kvs , sepheronx

Check this interview with NDTV's Prannoy Roy and Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma on Global Economy

Global Recession Arriving? 10 Big Trends For Economy

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/ndtv-special-ndtv-profit/global-recession-arriving-10-big-trends-for-economy/398323?pfrom=home-lateststories

Vann7 wrote:

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:This was posted in the oil thread and I already made my response.

These economists need to understand the reason why a reserve fund exists in the first place.

Media coverage of Russia's economy is hysterical nonsense.  

In 2014 Russian companies (not government departments) paid off $130 billion in debt.   They obviously
did not use the reserve fund to do it.   The reserve fund is used by the government to reduce its deficit but not
by 100%.  They could chose not to reduce the deficit at all with the reserve fund money but the point of the
reserve fund was and is to accumulate surpluses and spend them on deficits.   It takes a special kind of stupid
to pretend that Russia's economy will be in perpetual contraction from 2015 onward.

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/?Prtid=mrrf_m

I do not see any depletion trend in the reserve fund.   And even if there was, so f*cking what.  

i have several questions.. if you can repply..

Can you explain me whats going on with the Ruble at 75 vs Dollar? I don't understand how this works.. 1) can you compare the Ruble with with Japan currency ?that supposedly have its yen at 100+ vs 1 dollar.  2)which currency is doing better vs Dollar Ruble of the Japanese one?  3)Can Russia economy operate if the rubles goes to 80 ,90 or how about 100?   And also 4)i dont understand why Russian bank in DEC 2014 used billions to stabilize the Ruble.. and now they don't burn reserves to defend the Ruble.. why are the actions different now?   Why in NOv-Dec 2014 Russia central bank use money to improve the Ruble vs Dollar ratio and now not?
What is different now?

Update...  here is a new report about Russia economy that people might be
interested.

Time Is Running out for US Plan to Smash Russia Finances

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/saudi-iranian-spat-another-skirmish-oil-war/ri12096


Looking for your answer about the Japan vs Russia currency and if Russia can continue with
ruble at ~80 or more .. Japan seems to do it with 100 yen per dollar?

As I posted before, the forex "market" is not an actual free market in the economics textbook sense. It is a distorted market
with a small number of players who can set the prices. People have this strange notion that the forex "market" somehow
finds the real price of a currency. It does not such thing and we see this clearly in the case of the ruble. The value of the
ruble is being tied 100% to the price of a barrel of crude oil even though oil and natural gas accounts for under 13% of Russia's
GDP. It is obvious nonsense for the ruble to be tied to the oil price on an almost 1:1 basis. Complete and utter nonsense. Let's
say that the oil price drops to $3 per barrel. Does the ruble to dollar exchange then become 750:1? And if the oil price becomes
zero then the ruble to dollar exchange becomes infinity:1?

It is evident that the exchange rate is not being determined by some formula based on economic variables, but is based on a whim
whim originating from political motives and NATO media propaganda delusions.

sepheronx wrote:The Ruble can be 1,000,000/USD and Russia will be fine. It simply would mean Russia would become far more independent in domestic consumption and the 145M market will be more or less cut off for westerners. Russia's economy is more tied to within and its domestic consumption. Russian products have now become far more competitive due to its currency devaluation and companies whom were not in certain markets in 2014, are now (Rostelsmash in Germany) and that means bigger money for Russians and Russian industries. If let's say Russia was a net importer (which it is not), then they would definitely have a lot of trouble.  But let's also take into account other countries like China and their currency-  it also has dropped in value quite a bit, same with currencies like Rial and Rand.  Thus products from those countries are cheaper to purchase for Russians than from US. Russian currency isn't the only one dropping, many are. Look at the Krone as an example.

Russia's key strength here is her industrialized country. With all its inefficiencies and other issues, the lower the valued currency, allows greater competition as well as more drive for localization of production which is what is happening.

The above is all true, but the point is that the forex rate as it is now is totally detached from reality. This is actually good for Russia since it suppresses
imports and increases exports. To make it clearer, a true market exchange rate would minimize the PPP adjustment factor. An exchange rate that
produces a larger and larger PPP correction is going off the reality reservation. The forex market should reflect the actual state of the economy it is
pricing and not just the delusions of the speculators.

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:The Ruble can be 1,000,000/USD and Russia will be fine. It simply would mean Russia would become far more independent in domestic consumption and the 145M market will be more or less cut off for westerners. Russia's economy is more tied to within and its domestic consumption. Russian products have now become far more competitive due to its currency devaluation and companies whom were not in certain markets in 2014, are now (Rostelsmash in Germany) and that means bigger money for Russians and Russian industries. If let's say Russia was a net importer (which it is not), then they would definitely have a lot of trouble.  But let's also take into account other countries like China and their currency-  it also has dropped in value quite a bit, same with currencies like Rial and Rand.  Thus products from those countries are cheaper to purchase for Russians than from US. Russian currency isn't the only one dropping, many are. Look at the Krone as an example.

Russia's key strength here is her industrialized country. With all its inefficiencies and other issues, the lower the valued currency, allows greater competition as well as more drive for localization of production which is what is happening.

The above is all true, but the point is that the forex rate as it is now is totally detached from reality.   This is actually good for Russia since it suppresses
imports and increases exports.   To make it clearer, a true market exchange rate would minimize the PPP adjustment factor.   An exchange rate that
produces a larger and larger PPP correction is going off the reality reservation.   The forex market should reflect the actual state of the economy it is
pricing and not just the delusions of the speculators.

Indeed.. but lets say Russians citizens wants to buy an Iphone or are Xbox one right now or buy a video game to play its online  in their servers) ,downloaded digitally from american digital content distributor and only distributed by them. Will it be cheaper for Ukrainians or Japan citizens to buy those technologies with their credit cards /with the conversion transfer from their currency? than for Russian people ?

Aside note.
I really think you are underestimating China economy , and chinese mentallity. I wish Russians were more like chinese ,when it comes to their desire to do it all themselves. Chinese do anything that works , they follow it, go after it , learn it , replicate it . If something produce a lot of money in the west. Chinese will seek to do it too. If something the see they like ..they will also try to replicate it.  You will see Chinese have a very huge facility to embrace anything they like ,even from other culture and they will not feel ofended for doing it too. So this is why you can see Chinese jumping in the wines business for example with the intention to compete at international level. So they are never shy for emulating what works for others.. You will not be suprised to see Chinesse embracing the culture of other nations ,incuding its music and food.and creating business about it.

There is no single valid reason for Russia not doing a race in the semiconductor industry as they did with space. No reason why Russia did not have its own Internet. Its own PC that sells world wide and as competitive as western ones.No reason why Russia do not have a very strong gaming industry ,with such Amzing artist talent the have. Gaming industry is the #1 Business in the entertainment Industry. Is more profitable and produce more money ,than music industry ,Holywood, sports ,racing ,Russian Ballet etc. all combined. yet Russia missed the boat there.
Putin waited for the ukraine conflict to explode in their face (something that any President of Russia should have predicted after knowing what kind of player the americans are , trying to control the world and that dont tolerate any competition fair or not. )  So there is no reason for Russia not taking as seriously as they have done their nuclear weapons and to some degree space , the Semiconductor Industry and also gaming industry since both are connected. But also
the internet.

Going back to China, They have created Alibaba , which is a competition for Ebay and Amazon.
AND THERE IS A HUGE>>>  HUGE POTENTIAL in this business. it could take All Asian market and beyond that if done right. This is people ,selling and buying directly to other people. Trading. Something like this could totally kill wallstreet. Because Big banks will have no control or regulation of that. This could allow any Nation to bypass any western sanctions or isolation. and could allow the citizens of any country , to more effectively start its own business without investing a single ruble or dollar or yuan on it. In fact i see this as the future of the world economy.. and China is jumping big time on it. Imagine that anyone in a  remote area in the urals in Russia ,that have no chance ever to create a business in such zone. that is good at crafting jewelry he produce with the materials he get from his zone for free
(if transportation and mail services properly developed) He could start a business by Internet selling his art ,and people who likes it will buy it..then a company like Alibaba job will be to facilitate the trade and get a percent of the sale.  This is the future of world economy and it will give any one who wants to start a business or sale anything it not longer needs (to make some extra cash) and Russia is behind as always ,in the things that they should not be. The Internet is barely being used exploited to the capabilities it can. Because it have the potential to create literary hundreds of millions news small family business and stop people lazyness of waiting the government to provide them with all they need. Creating a new Internet (because mr Putin dont understand Russia can be isolated from American internet too ,so as always he will wait it explode on his face to start creating one) should be a TOP priority for Russia. And small family business taken to internet on the map.  This will allow the efficiency and creativity of every single human being who can produce something others consider valuable, taken to the max.
So for example a family in Siberia who makes a special fruit dessert that everyone love.. can now start selling it not only to friends. but also to other farther zones in Siberia too . and if the business grows , they can start a real retail store in Russia based on that. and if it grows even more ,take the business to international level and create restaurants in other countries. This is the future. the small family business is the future of world economy ,because makes productive
and creative every single family of any nation . But for this to happen a solid and strong Internet service needs to exist ,that the country controls. (not a foreign nation) and a good internet trading system like Ebay or Alibaba developed that facilitates the sale and becomes the guarantor that will secure the money of the buyer in the business and that the money gets in the hands of the new business. Everyone to become its own Business ,its own company is the future of the world economy and i really think Russia should really strongly start pushing on this direction. The awesomeness of this is that this thing can bypass Wallstreet and any American banking system. Can be used for people trading things without money for example. But if Russia
creates a system that it becomes the guarantor of the sale..and facilitate the transportation of the product. it will get a percent of the sale to its own economy,This means that the government will INDIRECTLY helps to create MILLIONS OF NEW JOBS. but makes every Russian citizen that works on their own  and dont register its business ,and dont pay taxes ,to finally
contribute to the nation economy.

Take a look at what this chineese man is doing..



he openly say he will beat bill gates in being the richest man in the world.
But he dont say it by arrogance. but because he feel his business is the best in the world.
the internet is seriously underestimated .the potential it have by Russia. , it have the capability to completely end the dependence of any nation of world Economy manipulators.. and I suspect the western elite will want to destroy his business or even kill him ,as they did with Ebay , that no longer anyone talks about ,before he goest to far and helps promote an new world economic model ,when everyone becomes its own business.  

btw.. Obama was present at one of his conferences. when you see that rat ,praising him ,is because they want to recruit him ,to defect from China , to destroy any possibility of China and Asia of becoming independent from the american economy model , where all business transactions are done using dollars and American banks . In my Opinion China is more prepared than Russia to face any economic world isolation ,since China have done something more smart ,and created a strong Banking Industry and truly diversifying its economy in radical ways ,like owning France wines business ,now they have alibaba who have a huge Potential and China government makes profits from it. And China is becoming what is for the west in manufacturing ,it is now in digital art. is now exporting digital 3d art to western gaming industry. and if you see a game cinematic ,or game asset by a big company , is very likely it was done by a CHinese graphic studio. even holywood import graphic content from CHina. Now China owns Yotaphone. So dont underestimate CHina. they are far more diversified now than Russia is. even though they also have a Big bubble but contrary to Americans ,they have 4 trillions dollars Reserve and Big Banks they control.

Vann7 wrote:Indeed.. but lets say Russians citizens wants to buy an Iphone or are Xbox one right now or buy a video game to play its online  in their servers) ,downloaded digitally from american digital content distributor and only distributed by them. Will it be cheaper for Ukrainians or Japan citizens to buy those technologies with their credit cards /with the conversion transfer from their currency? than for Russian people ?

I think iPhone or Xbox are not key factor for survival of Russian people as whole , As long at the price of basic necessity dont shoot up and is not beyond the reach of common Russian citizen and Shopping Mall/Food Markets are not empty with basic day to day necessity , The Russian people as a whole wont feel the pinch.

If some one wants to buy a Xbox online when Rouble is at 76 and cannot wait then let him pay a premium for it ,if he this Xbox or iPhone can make his life better

Austin wrote:

Vann7 wrote:Indeed.. but lets say Russians citizens wants to buy an Iphone or are Xbox one right now or buy a video game to play its online  in their servers) ,downloaded digitally from american digital content distributor and only distributed by them. Will it be cheaper for Ukrainians or Japan citizens to buy those technologies with their credit cards /with the conversion transfer from their currency? than for Russian people ?

I think iPhone or Xbox are not key factor for survival of Russian people as whole , As long at the price of basic necessity dont shoot up and is not beyond the reach of common Russian citizen and Shopping Mall/Food Markets are not empty with basic day to day necessity , The Russian people as a whole wont feel the pinch.

If some one wants to buy a Xbox online when Rouble is at 76 and cannot wait then let him pay a premium for it ,if he this Xbox or iPhone can make his life better  

Most of us here on the forum want a Russian economy that allows the common Russian citizen to do much more than "survive." Prices of basic necessities, including food, have "shot up" and life is harder for many Russians now.

Also, that 16% is cumulative and most of it was from the first four months of 2015:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/core-inflation-rate

There will not be another 16% of inflation in 2016.

sepheronx wrote:

A Different Voice wrote:

Austin wrote:

Vann7 wrote:Indeed.. but lets say Russians citizens wants to buy an Iphone or are Xbox one right now or buy a video game to play its online  in their servers) ,downloaded digitally from american digital content distributor and only distributed by them. Will it be cheaper for Ukrainians or Japan citizens to buy those technologies with their credit cards /with the conversion transfer from their currency? than for Russian people ?

I think iPhone or Xbox are not key factor for survival of Russian people as whole , As long at the price of basic necessity dont shoot up and is not beyond the reach of common Russian citizen and Shopping Mall/Food Markets are not empty with basic day to day necessity , The Russian people as a whole wont feel the pinch.

If some one wants to buy a Xbox online when Rouble is at 76 and cannot wait then let him pay a premium for it ,if he this Xbox or iPhone can make his life better  

Most of us here on the forum want a Russian economy that allows the common Russian citizen to do much more than "survive."  Prices of basic necessities, including food, have "shot up" and life is harder for many Russians now.

Barely. Average of 16% is barely a jump.  This issue affects all countries if you look at the real inflation numbers.  Certain foods increased some also deflated.  This is due to the fact domestic production is growing. Imports on average have increased and those are mostly luxury foods as well that are still imported.

KVS earlier did the math and the average Russian is about as rich as they were back in 2008 or so.  Sucks that a lot of gain was lost but this year it should be a bit better as minimum wages will be increasing by roughly 7% so it will close the gap a bit.

The real Economy ,the quality of it, to compare the surviving of people in Russia will be to compare it with how it is in the west.

Compare the education cost in US vs Russia, the cost of an average apartment or house ,or rent of one. the cost of electricity ,and transportation. But also cost of internet west vs Russia ,the cost of a car ,and of course food ,health care. all those things starting with Education and apartment and transportation ,cost of telephone services will have biggest black hole in the pockets of anyone. much more than a 16% inflation. because if for example you were offered the option to have a tax of 20% to get in change free education +free health care. the majority of people will pick the tax of 20%.. because life will be more cheap with that tax ,since the biggest burden on society will be free.


i think the real bummer for Russians is not the inflation at all , unless you live in extreme poverty. But the job losses. thats the most interesting data i will like to know KVS? Seph?
Because with the Ruble big devaluation , the shopping malls in Russia with many European and
Americans retailers will close down. Some airliners will close because people will not travel for being too expensive to go outside. Even though is possible that at the same time new jobs could be created ,specially in manufacturing.

So if anyone have any reliable data , about how are jobs doing in Russia vs 2013 ,vs 2016.
If more RUssians are unemployed today than 3 years ago? or the other way? if more jobs now in Russia vs 2013 and 2014 and 2015?  that information will be gold to know the real way Russia economy is developing. How are the job opportunities now in Russia doing.

Many winners and losers. All those millions of Ukrainian 'guest' workers sending money home, not so good for them. Holidaying abroad is much more expensive so better for hotels etc in Russian destinations. Russia should be really good for incoming tourists as well, especially from the Far East who are not so worried about US sanctions.

There will be some positioning themselves for when the sanctions come off.

Current mess simply emphasizes the need for Russia to finally start plugging the holes that were left unattended for too long.

Longer they wait harder it gets so better now than later. No pain, no gain.

BTW, X-box will always be pricey because it is unlikely to be manufactured in Russia. But we can all agree it is bearable expense. 50-100$ extra for gaming console is hardly a disaster...

You are not the only one who would like to go to Sochi, whole place is booked beyond belief ever since Olympics. All those ''white elephant'' capacities will have to be expanded if this keeps up...


Also, yeah PC Master Race FTW, we are legion!!!