Not an economist , but i don't think if Europe goes tomorrow and lift all the sanctions on
Russia ,tha Russia will be able to "pass the page" and start buying European products again..
Russia was forced to invest heavily on its agriculture and forced into an import substitution
program from western technology ,not only creating local technology but using alternative one
Actually the Russians would be welcomed in heartbeat. Look at Iran, "Terror sponsor",relatively lucrative market. Now think about Russia. See where I'm going with this? This is business. Will always be business.
This means that it will take at least years before sanctions are lifted for Europe to regain
the Russian market they had.. Because Russia is not going to throw away all the $billions invested on its agriculture and import technology substitution ,creating new companies ,for later
go and sabotage their own local Industry ,by allowing Euopeans to continue business as usual.
What would be great is that Europe ceases its subsidies on its Agro-sector. That would level the playing field. As it is, there's simply not much Russia can do to offset the price madness of Euro CAP. No matter how much modernization you put into it, Russia's labour cost will be greater than the CAP.
So the way it looks.. unless something historical happens.. like Europe officially split from America, in the way of retaking its Sovereignty and power back ,and refusing to follow blindly
any of their policies and something with bullet proof legal guarantees created ,like a free trade zone between Russia and Europe ,from Lisboa Portugal to Vladivostok.. With big economic penalties for violating the free trade pact..Then the chance of Europeans regaining the Russian
market will be very small.
A free trade zone as it is is self-defeating for Russia. The Russian sectors bar certain niche structures are all overmatched by their European counterparts. What is needed is to pinpoint areas where Russia can do damage and get back parts. As it is most of those areas are politically tied and clearly not open to competition. So Russia cannot before a total overhaul of its industrial structure allow that FTZ. It was that same issue that caused the Ukraine debacle.
Europe wanting a backdoor in Russian market.
Russia is paying the price of the very short sight vision of Putin , allowing its economic minister KUDRIN to first Westernisize the Russian market thinking AMericans were going to allow their Europeans economies to fully integrate with Russia ,something that could threaten the very existence of NATO without turning the world in wars first.. and creating revolutions at their borders. It was not like there was no signs already? Did anyone forget It was a US coup what
removed Georgia Pro Russian president ,replacing him for a PRO US one? Or how in Ukraine was as early as the 2,000s under a major NGO attack by US proxies ,creating a CIA-ultra nationalism anti RUssia movement? Yakunovych many forget was overthrow not one but TWO TIMES!!! already.
What short sight. I can see I'm getting robbed, but if there's an army of them, and I'm on my dying bed what you think will happen if I try to nab the robbers? Same for Russia. Russia just got back on its feet. And you're asking it to start an MMA with half the top fighters. All at once. Do you understand that Politics at state level take decades?
Meaning the US was not hiding its real intentions ever.. from Isolating Russia from the world..
and was only expecting the best moment.. They simply take Ukraine and later most of Russian
gas no longer could travel to Europe.. Is beyond incompetence ,just total failure ,to not have a Plan B ,in case what already happened in Georgia in 2008.. happens in Ukraine... and that today for example many warships in Russia defense industry depends on Ukraine gas engines..?
Yeah well half of Europe depends on Spanish flaps for their A400M, guess what happens if Spain goes bust and Catalan Nationalists get the power? Same for a lot of projects. The idea however is that Ukraine was part of a former system, that Russia found beneficial to both. So did the Ukrainian MIC. At that point there was little fuss about who owed who. However the structure of Ukraine was a permanent challenge. It wasn't stable enough and it wasn't ready for the kind of economical beating it recieved these last two decades. This is also partly Russia's fault. Russia didn't picked an option since the beginning, mostly because the countries, once the Bandera BS and Nationalist crap on both sides drops, are basically the same fucking people. Not because of nature or culture (off course they play a great part) but mostly because of a forme Soviet system that has calibrated both people in the same mold (give or take). And this makes your assertion completely out of the mark. Russia needs a stable Ukraine, because that allows it to not loose badly to a behemoth of market like the Euro-Zone. That bet however, didn't count with the new wave of svidomites. And the rest is history.
Russia is not now when they have to start seeking an import substitution,, but 20 years AGO..
So Russia is late 2 decades..in this.. It should have been FUCKING CLEAR after the 90s ,for Russians ,that US intentions was to destroy Russia plain and simple.. after Yugoeslavia ,Serbia and IRAQ... and the increasing NGO operations in Russia and its Borders a the expansion of NATO to Russian borders.. IT should have been FUCKING clear for PUTIN after Georgia attack
on Russia...what were the Americans aiming.. But they fucking waited for Americans to try a second revolution in 2013/2014 Ukraine and put CIANAZIS in power to actually ,to start an import substitution program..and start thinking in removing their dependence in Western Technology.
Se above, Russia wasn't able to do that for obvious reasons, it's called economy for that matter.
Americans seeks nothing but World Total Domination , and split of Russia in many parts , they simply dont accept any competition that stand in middle of Americans plans to install a military
base in every nation in the world. and have all the laws in every nation being dictated by them and have ZERO voices to oppose it.. So its really disappointing to see how Putin had all the power he needed in Russsia to turn Russia into Isolation proof country.. as USA today is. That
can get the technology its needs internally with their own Industries .. in case the world try to isolate them. But that Russia did nothing.. All Putin and Medvedev focused was to continue building more nukes as a "deterrence" modernize its military and trying to turn Gazprom into a world monopoly.
America has already failed into that twice, I don't see they will "get there anytime". Insstead of rummaging the "Russian debacle", look at the US total and utter deliquescence in terms of geopolicy. They created a pit of chaos in the Middle East while their most direct competitor was gaining speed and steam. Now they're faced with a Russian dilemma which they can't solve. Empoverishing Russia isn't easy by now, for that you need also to greatly reduce their export advantage, and that unfortunately they can't really do. Because that would mean braking the world economy back to 2000 levels. That means that a lot of asset destruction will be desired. That kind of asset destruction can't come from a bubble, it has to be war. You really think the US is ready to go to war against Russia, on Russia's turf?
So is a retarded policy.. Russia cannot be neutral nation in the world like India or China and expect later their interest to be respected... Everytime you see Putin complaining and complaining and complaining like a girl , the west did this ,the west did that.. and dont take them seriously ..but he is the biggest one to blame..for allowing Russia to become so dependent on the nations American economy have a real strong control.. From my view , the only positive
thing about Putin is that he is patriotic..and united the country and good in diplomacy.. But his lack of vision is pathetic at best.. I really say Russia needs a new leader that can move Russia
to a new level.. and that realize if they want to save Russia from a world war 3 , they need to become a much influential nation ,so much that Europe could see Russia as an alternative to USA. But as know it is.. there doesnt seem to be any Hope for a better world ,until someone
dethrone US auto imposed role leadership ,that they can backup with its dominating artificially created Economy ,that leads the world ,its Industrial power and military block.
But you don't know how the next guy will behave either? China might be a lot more self centered and more open to dialogue, but it could also be a far pettier partner once on top. And that means this whole charade will swing back again. Simple.