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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    Austin

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    Post  Austin Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:20 am

    Latest CBR Estimates , External Debt of Russia reduced to $559 Billion by 31st Match 2015

    http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/debt_est_new_e.xlsx
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    Post  Cyberspec Sun Apr 12, 2015 1:05 pm

    Austin wrote:Latest CBR Estimates , External Debt of Russia reduced to $559 Billion by 31st Match 2015

    http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/debt_est_new_e.xlsx

    An important detail announced in a recent statement by the head of the CBR is that the CBR will not be going down the route of expanding debt to try and stimulate economic activity...

    I can't understand why they just don't follow the lead of "successful", "diversified" and "booming" economies to the west of Russia....like Spain for example What a Face....... Very Happy
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    Post  kvs Sun Apr 12, 2015 1:42 pm

    Cyberspec wrote:
    Austin wrote:Latest CBR Estimates , External Debt of Russia reduced to $559 Billion by 31st Match 2015

    http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/credit_statistics/debt_est_new_e.xlsx

    An important detail announced in a recent statement by the head of the CBR is that the CBR will not be going down the route of expanding debt to try and stimulate economic activity...

    I can't understand why they just don't follow the lead of "successful", "diversified" and "booming" economies to the west of Russia....like Spain for example What a Face....... Very Happy

    Yes, Nabiullina proved she isn't just a monetarist tw*at. The floating of the ruble was a brilliant move. The Sorosites were banking
    on Russia blowing its reserves propping up some exchange rate target. They lucked out, the poor dears. The CBR did not jack up
    the long term borrowing rate, so it did not damage the economy. The short term rate that was increased to 17% is now down to
    13% and is going to be reduced to 9% this year.
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    Post  max steel Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:36 pm

    Russian markets - largely reported to be dead and buried in the mainstream Western media in late December - are proving to be the spectacular out-performers of 2015 - with the world's top-performing currency, top-performing bond markets, and (I think) top performing major equity index (while the S&P goes nowhere)..


    The Russian sovereign bond - the Rf30 - has soared 18% to 118, an almost unheard-of move for the debt of a major economy. The RTS has gapped up by about 50%, with the rouble in danger of becoming overvalued - having brushed against the 50 level - last Thursday.


    How odd. What about all those downgrades to junk status? Next thing you know, we might think S&P and Fitch don't know what they're talking about, what with all those AAA ratings right before 2007-8... Now this . lol! attack
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    Post  Werewolf Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:53 pm

    max steel wrote:Russian markets - largely reported to be dead and buried in the mainstream Western media in late December - are proving to be the spectacular out-performers of 2015 - with the world's top-performing currency, top-performing bond markets, and (I think) top performing major equity index (while the S&P goes nowhere)..


    The Russian sovereign bond - the Rf30 - has soared 18% to 118, an almost unheard-of move for the debt of a major economy. The RTS has gapped up by about 50%, with the rouble in danger of becoming overvalued - having brushed against the 50 level - last Thursday.


    How odd. What about all those downgrades to junk status? Next thing you know, we might think S&P and Fitch don't know what they're talking about, what with all those AAA ratings right before 2007-8... Now this . lol! attack

    Lol, had to laugh so hard my neighbours rung at my door so i shut up. Laughing
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    Post  max steel Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:35 pm

    I've some info which will LIGHTEN YOU UP further . What a Face Twisted Evil Very Happy
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:36 pm

    max steel wrote:I've some info  which will LIGHTEN YOU UP further . What a Face Twisted Evil  Very Happy

    Share it.
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    Post  Cyberspec Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:17 am

    It's too early to be popping champagne bottles, cause like I said earlier IMO it will be tough going for a year or two.

    That said, the initial shock is probably over and personally I'm the most optimistic I've been on the medium/longer tem prospects of the Rus economy.

    One thing that worries me if the oil price shoots up again (chances are it will by the end of 2015/early 2016), easy money starts flowing again and they get lazy like they did after the 2008 crisis. The stuff they're doing now they should've started doing back then (if not earlier).
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:50 am

    Cyberspec wrote:It's too early to be popping champagne bottles, cause like I said earlier IMO it will be tough going for a year or two.

    That said, the initial shock is probably over and personally I'm the most optimistic I've been on the medium/longer tem prospects of the Rus economy.

    One thing that worries me if the oil price shoots up again (chances are it will by the end of 2015/early 2016), easy money starts flowing again and they get lazy like they did after the 2008 crisis. The stuff they're doing now they should've started doing back then (if not earlier).

    Very true, so it is in Russias best interest to have the ruble floating in the 50's range regardless of prices so that they can put more emphasis on import substitution.  Like some other site said, sanctions have acted much like heavy tarrifs but without Russia facing the issues that comes with heavy tarrifs.  In other words, prices of outside goods are way too high anyway and it will be profitable no matter at what price oil is, if they can still float the ruble to being lower (where it is now) mixed with counter sanctions/tarrifs.  Right now, the biggest successors to all this are the agricultural industry, and this will continue on until sanctions on food stuff is lifted, and so then they may have problems again.  But if they are not lifted, then I imagine it will be fine.
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    Post  kvs Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:56 am

    I think the CBR is in a very good position to achieve a cheap rouble target by dialing interest rates. This is not like propping up
    an expensive ruble by burning through reserves. The CBR is also helped by western propaganda which smears Russia as an oil
    dependent banana republic. So the market will undervalue the ruble and is easy to spook with messages that no support of
    any form will be given to the ruble.

    Whether the Russian economy responds to the stimulus in the near future we will have to wait and see. But I get the impression
    that there is a lot of flexibility and the credit for companies is there to launch new ventures. In other words, the Russian economy
    has matured after 2000 and the banking sector is functional and serving its role in lending to companies. But the interest rates are
    still too high. Really, the biggest shock is the loss of cheap credit from western banks. If Russian companies can tap into Chinese
    and other Asian banks they will have obliterated this shock. In the long run, the Russian banking sector will continue to grow and
    the interest rates will continue to decline.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:00 am

    kvs wrote:I think the CBR is in a very good position to achieve a cheap rouble target by dialing interest rates.   This is not like propping up
    an expensive ruble by burning through reserves.   The CBR is also helped by western propaganda which smears Russia as an oil
    dependent banana republic.   So the market will undervalue the ruble and is easy to spook with messages that no support of
    any form will be given to the ruble.  

    Whether the Russian economy responds to the stimulus in the near future we will have to wait and see.   But I get the impression
    that there is a lot of flexibility and the credit for companies is there to launch new ventures.   In other words, the Russian economy
    has matured after 2000 and the banking sector is functional and serving its role in lending to companies.   But the interest rates are
    still too high.  Really, the biggest shock is the loss of cheap credit from western banks.   If Russian companies can tap into Chinese
    and other Asian banks they will have obliterated this shock.   In the long run, the Russian banking sector will continue to grow and
    the interest rates will continue to decline.

    It is all about liquidity.  They can increase the amount of liquidity based upon assets the banks can own.  These assets can be either in infrastructure, resource ownership through mining companies or outright buying them, or whole enterprises.  Many banks in Russia own huge shares in major companies and this acts as liquidity.  Eventually they can lower interest rates and still provide decent amounts in loans.

    Either that or the government can look into really heavily investing in business venture fund concept where they just use certain % of surpluses to put into this and over x amount of years, it can be used to start providing loans to businesses.
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    Post  Cyberspec Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:45 am

    They've got plenty of scope to lower interests rates considering how high they are atm.

    Also, the tax rate in Russia is ridicously low. I don't think raising it by 2-3% is going to have any meaningful negative impact on the economy. You can't expect to have free health care and a large military budget and still expect to have a miniscule tax rate (well you can, if the price of oil is $100 +).

    Anyway, the main strategic task is to de-dolarise the economy and decouple from the western financial system....everything else will fall into place.
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    Post  Viktor Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:32 pm


    Nice thumbsup

    Russia to withdraw money from the structures of the World Bank

    excellent ... russia

    Russia and Iran have started supplying the "oil-for-goods"


    from the sankes den Very Happy

    Goldman Sachs: Central Bank of Russia may reduce the rate to 8%
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    Post  max steel Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:49 pm

    FOREIGN DEBT CONTINUES TO FALL

    Russia's foreign debt declined by $37.9 bln in 1Q15 to $559.4 bln. According to the balance of payments, foreign debt redemptions totaled $33.8 bln. This means the revaluation of debt denominated in currencies besides the dollar (e.g. rubles or euros) accounted for $4.1 bln. Most of this sum was covered by the current account surplus, which was $23.5 bln, while the CBR spent $10.1 bln in reserves.
    As Russian debt is becoming more interesting for investors, the opportunity for refinancing is increasing. As such, we do not expect foreign debt redemptions to significantly impact the FX market in the near term.
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    Post  max steel Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:53 pm

    Some food for thought - from VTB

    Commodities Outlook - Seismic shift

    Major cyclical bottom. We believe commodities are in the process of making a major cyclical bottom, with initial recovery in 1H15 leading to a more sustained pick-up in 2H15 and 2016. Timing depends on moderation of the USD rally to 12-year highs, and growth recovery in China and Europe, which would trigger substantial fund short-covering.

    Fundamentals remain supportive. Prices of many commodities are below global marginal costs of production, supply growth will be capped by capex reductions, ageing mines and production issues, while most base metals are expected to be in supply deficit in 2015 and 2016.

    Seismic shift to drive major change in price discovery mechanism. Rapid growth of new, aggressive Chinese hedge funds and the explosion in the dominance of high frequency, fast money trading funds has altered the historic interplay between supply-demand fundamentals, marginal costs, merchant trading activity, and speculative fund trading which previously determined prices relatively efficiently.

    Brent to average USD 60/bbl in 2015 and USD 75/bbl in 2016, as slowing US output growth to drive a balanced or deficit market in 2H15.
    Base metals to continue to outperform, while precious metals are constrained by the strong USD, and steel and bulks are the laggards.
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    Post  max steel Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:59 pm

    sepheronx wrote:

    Share it.

    Werewolf this one >

    Below is military spending comparisons as of 2014 (SIRPI).The good news is that Russia+China is spending on PPP as much or more than USA, that is, Russia/China get much more for their money. USA would have to double their spending in order to catch up with Russia/China (in terms of development and production of new weapons). Also to note that a big portion of USA military spending goes on maintaining their troops that are heavily placed accross the globe and on consultants, which to a big extent is what would in other parts of the world be called corruption.


    Russian Economy General News: #4 - Page 13 Zoqb7f10
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    Post  Austin Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:22 pm

    Some tough decision expected in 2016-2018 budget warns Finance Minister

    Siluanov: Russia must prepare for a period of low oil prices
    ote]
    MOSCOW, April 14. / TASS /. Russia must prepare for a period of low oil prices, said at the expanded board of the Ministry of Finance Minister Anton Siluanov head.

    [b]"Experience has shown that low levels of prices can be kept for quite a long time. And we need to prepare for just such a period," - he said.


    Without accumulation of oil and gas reserves this year would have to cut spending budget of the Russian Federation by 25%, said Siluanov.

    "The policy of the last decade on the accumulation of surplus oil revenues allowed at the beginning of this year have in the Reserve Fund 5 trillion rubles. Without the reserves this year would have to cut spending by 25%," - he said.

    Siluanov added that limit spending in the budget rules also brought results.

    "If we had more actively increasing budget expenditures, as suggested by our opponents (which, incidentally, and so for 10 years increased from 16 to 21% of GDP), at the present time and we would have a debt under 30% of GDP and the budget deficit 6-7% of GDP, and the recession in the economy would start much earlier, "- said the Minister.

    Among other measures, which have helped the budget system to resist external challenges, Siluanov also noted that in the second half of last year the government began to implement the first steps to optimize the budget.

    By the end of 2014 managed to accumulate in the anti-crisis fund of more than 130 billion rubles (taking into account the funds accumulated since the beginning of the year, this amount now stands at 234 billion rubles); carried out measures to optimize the cost of more than $ 1 trillion rubles, reminded the Minister.

    "It is thanks to this timely decision to form the stock of resources, which made it possible to implement a plan of priority measures to ensure the sustainable economic development and social stability", - said the head of the Ministry of Finance.


    He also said that the government "responded quickly to the deteriorating situation in the banking system" running the recapitalization of the banking system by 1 trillion rubles, as well as increasing the maximum amount of insured deposits to 1.4 million rubles.

    How to optimize budget spending

    The Ministry of Finance considers it necessary to minimize the crisis support employment in 2016-2017 as one of the five important measures to optimize budget expenditures.

    "What are the key areas of cost optimization can be distinguished? Firstly, the folding of single anti-crisis measures this year, primarily in terms of supporting employment. Secondly, optimization of costs and the size of the state apparatus" - listed Siluanov. Among the proposed measures it is also called - continued formation of spending on defense and security on the basis of the priorities of the country's defense and the real possibilities of the budget; reduction in the budget of the so-called psevdoinvestitsionnyh costs, as well as grants and contributions to the company's share capital; reduction in social spending.

    According Siluanova, the largest share in the structure of the consolidated budget expenditures are expenses of a social nature. "Apart from the cost, there is also a large range of benefits of a different nature. The effectiveness of the system of social support remains low: does not apply the principle of means-tested pension benefits ceased to be fees associated with disability person, and actually began to play the role of the social benefit of a certain age" - the minister said.

    He stressed that all this led to the formation of high and low effect commitments to overcome poverty.

    On the Budget


    According Siluanova, a new three-year budget (for 2016 and the planning period of 2017 and 2018 - Ed.) Must run structural changes in the economy.

    "The task of the Ministry for this year - preparation of a new three-year budget, which should start the necessary structural changes in the economy. It is important to reduce the operating costs of the budget, leaving as many resources in the private sector. The budget can not replace the private investor and the state can not replace private owner. Solving these problems will help return the budget to the deficit-free (in 2017), "- he said.

    According Siluanova, the ministry task is to reduce the $ 2 trillion in the budget-2017. "In the coming months to be a large-scale work on the optimization of the budget: we will have to cut about 2 trillion rubles from the planned expenditure for 2017. The volume of spending cuts will exceed the original level conditionally approved expenditures," - said the head of the Ministry of Finance.

    As explained to journalists yesterday First Deputy Finance Minister Tatyana Nesterenko, the Ministry of Finance has already started work on a new three-year budget, which is considering the possibility of changing the rules of the budget due to the dynamics of oil prices.

    Siluanov also noted that the use of reserve funds as a source of budget deficit should be reduced dramatically in 2016.

    "In the baseline scenario, the Reserve Fund" lose weight "to 3.1 trillion rubles, or nearly two-thirds. When you save the current settings of the course and the cost of oil by the end of the volume of the Reserve Fund may be reduced to 1.5 trillion rubles. All this means that next year we need to drastically reduce the use of this source of financing of the budget, "- said the minister.

    Economic growth


    According Siluanova, the first quarter will be the weakest economic growth in Russia.

    The Finance Ministry expects the II quarter outflows of $ 15 billion, a year - no more than $ 90 billion.

    "We see a sharp slowdown in the outflow of capital - with a level of $ 77.4 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, it dropped to $ 32.6 billion in the first quarter of 2015. In the second quarter, we expect to reduce it to a level of $ 15 billion, and in general, he is unlikely to exceed $ 90 billion, "- he said.

    The Bank of Russia expects capital outflows in the current year at $ 110 billion. In 2014 the CBR registered a record outflow of capital, which exceeded $ 150 billion.

    The Ministry of Finance does not preclude recovery of economic growth in Russia in the second half of 2015. According to the forecast of the RF Ministry of Economic Development, at the end of 2015 Russia's GDP could fall by 2.5%, while next year growth is possible, with an average growth in the years 2016-2018 could reach 2.5-3%.

    Restarting economic growth in Russia is possible only through private investment, said Siluanov.

    What you need to restart economic growth? The answer is clear - private investment. No economy is developing rapidly, as if eats produced income. All fast-growing economies of many save and invest Anton Siluanov

    According to him, in the structure of domestic demand, Singapore's gross is 38.1%, China - 49.3%, South Korea - 29% in Indonesia - 33.6%, India - 30.0% and the current consumption the state in these countries is only from 9 to 14% of GDP.

    "We will not invest today about 19-20% of GDP, and thus to grow by 3-4% is possible. In the structure of domestic demand, investment should be around 30% None of the countries, which sharply increased its current consumption and government spending, not ensure sustainable long-term growth, "- said Siluanov.

    Russian ruble and government securities - one of the most profitable assets this year, the minister said. "What we see today? Financial markets have stabilized, and the Russian ruble government securities are among the most profitable assets this year," - said Siluanov.

    According to him, the first impact of the crisis on the financial markets is necessary, and then transferred to the effect on the real economy. Restoration is now in the same way, the minister added.

    Inflation

    Finance Ministry expects inflation in Russia by the end of 2015, 11%. Siluanov previously expressed the view that inflation this year will be lower than the official forecast of 12.2%. "At the end of the year is expected to reduce inflation to the level of 11% Gradually, more and more economists begins to join our estimates," - he said.

    According Siluanova, the current inflation rate of 16.9% YoY due to one-off factors.


    "Not yet resolved the issue with high inflation. The current 16.9% yoy mainly due to one-off factors: the effect of the depreciation of the real effective exchange rate and trade restrictions, which together gave more than 11 percentage points The main risk - not to let go of inflation from a single into a permanent "- the minister said.

    He explained that this transition occurs when following the surge in prices starts indexing budget expenditures and salaries. "A key role in reducing inflation today belongs to the fiscal policy" - he said.

    The Finance Ministry expect the emergence of private bonds indexed to inflation. "In the second quarter of 2015, we will offer the market denominated bonds, indexed to inflation. De facto, we create a new market - expect after us such bonds to finance long-term investment projects will produce and Russian companies," - he said.


    On pension reform


    The question of raising the retirement age need to be addressed urgently, says Siluanov. "We need to modernize the system of categorical benefits, means-tested allowance to enter in the implementation of measures of social support. We need to urgently address the question of the abolition of early retirement pensions, raising the retirement age. This will not only reduce the burden on the budget, but also to mitigate the impact of demographics on the weak economically active population" , - he said.

    The Ministry of Finance considers it necessary restoration funded pension in 2016 in full.

    "The key question - the full restoration in 2016 the rights of the insured persons on the funded pensions in accordance with their choice," - he said.

    Siluanov reminded that this system was the need to reform and verification mechanism was launched on state guarantees of savings. "This year, funds received accumulation of the past, you are ready to restart next year," - said the minister.

    According to the Finance Minister, the final decision should be taken at a meeting in the government.

    Against the return of mandatory funded pension serves a social bloc of the government, which proposes to make a voluntary retirement format.

    Loan for regions


    Russia's Finance Ministry will provide new loans to the region only in the performance of their obligations under previous loans, said Anton Siluanov.

    He noted that due to the high volatility in the financial markets very sharply at the beginning of the year there was a question refinancing regions.

    "It was decided to lean on - to refinance commercial debt will be allocated 160 billion rubles of budget credits at the rate of 0.1%," - said Siluanov.

    However, lamented the minister, the conditions for preparing these budget loans provided in the past year, "unfortunately, not fulfilled all the regions."

    "This year we will give serious consideration to the monitoring of those agreements (to provide budgetary credits - approx. Ed.), Which will be concluded and new lending regions will be linked to the implementation of earlier agreements on loans," - said the Minister.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:32 pm

    Good article austin. And it proves that the gov knows they cannot rely on gas/oil for their budget growth anymore. Their idea of private investment I believe is mostly right. But also, the government needs to be more proactive as well. For instance, what is the major demand? Computer equipment. So the government should hold tenders to the Russian companies to be able to provide this stuff. As well, if there are major demands for anything, should always be heald be open tenders to domestic companies, with options of financial assistance for companies who are offering a good product but needs assistance in assembling/manufacturing funds.

    As well, infrastructure. China mass built infrastructure and then offered cheap rentals to companies to use their infrastructure to open up shop in their country, first in special economic zones. Russis should expand their SEZ's and reduce costs in rent for such infrastructure.
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    Post  Austin Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:38 pm

    Ministry of Finance: possible transfer of the defense spending in the budget 2016-18 biennium

    MOSCOW, April 14 - RIA Novosti / Prime. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov does not exclude that in the budget for 2016-2018 years will be decided on the transfer of the defense spending at a later date.

    "We are always with the Ministry of Defense in the discussion and constantly find mutually acceptable solutions. Therefore, when preparing the new budget for 2016-2018 years also sit down, let's see what expenses are necessary and in full will be provided, which can be moved to a later date. I think that we will find a solution, "- said Siluanov reporters.


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    Post  Viktor Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:02 pm

    EU fags will have 50% more need for gas in 10 years time and they are screwing with Russia .... Very Happy

    Russian Energy Ministry foretold the increase in imports of gas to Europe and a half times


    Middle age kingdom of Saudi Arabia has has enough of low oil prices .... Very Happy

    Saudi Arabia announced the termination of the game for a fall in oil prices


    I think this is a good measure - every man needs to work (Russia will by such measure up to a point reduce negative impact of population decline during 90ies)

    Siluanov urgently advised to raise the retirement age


    Exporting cars to Germany .... Very Happy

    and excellent looking Vesta is coming (hell I might buy one Very Happy )

    Lada Granta is recognized as the cheapest car in Germany



    Hilarious - so much for sanctions Very Happy

    "Rosneft" has drilled the deepest well in the world
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    Post  max steel Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:27 pm

    What Sanctions? The Russian Economy Is Growing Again welcome



    http://www.newsweek.com/putin-was-right-be-confident-about-russias-economy-321934
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:40 pm

    Well, now you see? Who has lost in all of this? Western companies who were forced out because of their crappy leaders and Ukraine for being a bunch of tools and destroying themselves for no good reason.
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    Post  Werewolf Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:11 pm

    max steel wrote:What Sanctions? The Russian Economy Is Growing Again  welcome



    http://www.newsweek.com/putin-was-right-be-confident-about-russias-economy-321934

    But russia is a shithole in decline

    -TR1, Desperado
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    Post  kvs Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:06 am

    Werewolf wrote:
    max steel wrote:What Sanctions? The Russian Economy Is Growing Again  welcome



    http://www.newsweek.com/putin-was-right-be-confident-about-russias-economy-321934

    But russia is a shithole in decline

    -TR1, Desperado

    Russia doesn't make anything

    -Obama, Loser
    Cyberspec
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    Post  Cyberspec Wed Apr 15, 2015 1:22 am

    A similar article from investment adviser Mike Shedlock...

    Russia Forced to Do Right Thing? Buy Russia?
    Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/04/russia-forced-to-do-right-thing-buy.html#QIvgyotqs4oYItzD.99


    And a commentary related to the Newsweek article...

    Is Russia's "Bullet Proof" Economy Ready to Blast Off?
    http://russia-insider.com/en/mainstream-cracked-russias-bullet-proof-economy/5626

    ---

    The main surprise is the Rus economy actually growing instead of receding. I have a feeling the forecasts for 3,4 or 5% drop in GDP for 2015 might be well off the mark. The first quarter of 2015 should've been the worst IMO

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