Where likely will Russia be dragged into next???

With Russia slowly pulling out of Syria where likely will they be dragged into next??????
With Isis scattering across northern Africa could it be there? Or could Isis be looking to launch itself in central Asia in Russia's backyard. Or will Egypt, Libya or another african country ask for help? Or Ukraine kick off an offensive in the east??? Or will they be foolish enough to attempt to take crimea back? Or maybe they will end up in Lebanon on peace keeping duties? No matter what decision what we do know is that the Russians will be ready and have experience now and that the USA are planning something to recoup from there defeat in Syria. And with Russia and China going after a gold grab to weaken the dollar something will happen just remember when Gaddafi was wanting to ditch the dollar looked what happened Putin will have to up security during election campaign the CIA /USA will be looking to use isis puppets to try and assassinate him. And isis turning up in central Asia not only effects Russia but also China and one belt one road initiative. And going after northern Africa and central Africa will put up oil and gas prices as well as a race for arms. And effect any chinese investment in the area.

I think Putin is sensible and level headed enough to not go on unnecessary adventures... they had to go to Syria... or the government forces would have collapsed.

The other places you mention are not that critical... let the US be the worlds police and suffer accordingly... they love the power...

Hard to say for sure....I guess Libya where IS is said to be redeploying and growing seems like a possibilty. The talk about Russia having access to a Egyptian airbase makes it feasible

Prob Central Asia if the FSB/High Leadership allows it with incompetence.

The U.S is not the world police and its interventionist foreign policy (including military intervention) has nothing to do with some sort of justice or altruism. These are cliche's which pollute discussion on the issue by sugarcoating the true nature of the activity - imperial management. Same as PMC's being used as a term for mercenary....etc etc etc. Sugarcoating.

GarryB wrote:let the US be the worlds police and suffer accordingly... they love the power...

Following that logic, if I broke into your house and started smashing and stealing things you would say I'm a police officer?

Police is supposed to help (at least in theory), not bomb you, arm and train proxies to steal your land and kill you. Comparing US to police is just wrong and portrays a completely wrong picture which has nothing to do with reality.

Since the war in Syria ended, officially at least, a short summary.

Russian forces seems that have prerformed quite well. Quality wise, at least on parity with what Americans could show lately and certainly better than in Abhazia.
The modernization is somewhat evident, but yet limited. All in all 8/10 I would say.

Seems like America & all cannot afford right now a military confrontation. So it is absolutely important for Russian/Chinese leadership to remember the lesson of Vietnam.
They need an immediate follow up, decisive and central hit, to force American puppets all over the world to retreat their support to the team that loses and paralyze the American overextended patient.
Americans will try the same recipe (Kissinger is still the great master) and will attempt an economic/ideological stronghold with their vassals attempting to stagnate the coalition.
An immediate, centralized hit, is the counter-strike that missed in the 70s and lead to total disaster.
A strike either in the very heart of Europe or my personal preference Israel itself. This will derail neo-cons completely, and force them to play on their own ground, before they will have time to consolidate, diversify and re-attack. Before Russia lose Belarus and Kazakhstan as well, before China become the Japan of the 2020s....

Has Russia the energy required for a follow up?
Hard task, Putin is failing in the internal ideological front, Russia still loses brains to Western enemies and ever remains not attractive to foreign talents.
Can China change mindset?
Plausible, but they lag terrible behind. Decades later cannot create a semi-decent jet engine or built a damn blue water navy, they are lacking plan and maybe the talents of the white race, someone might say. There is no Chinese Hollywood, no Chinese music, clothes or way of life. Patience is good, but patience without plan is idleness.

American strategists are not clever, unlike what they think, they are predictable and simplistic, it is only that Eastern nations have no strategy at all, no willingness and ultimately no balls.

Visc wrote:

GarryB wrote:let the US be the worlds police and suffer accordingly... they love the power...

Following that logic, if I broke into your house and started smashing and stealing things you would say I'm a police officer?

Police is supposed to help (at least in theory), not bomb you, arm and train proxies to steal your land and kill you. Comparing US to police is just wrong and portrays a completely wrong picture which has nothing to do with reality.

As for the thread topic, Russia was forced to intervene in Syria because Iran was cut off thus unable to help enough and Syria was going down. Russia also had to act in Ukraine because the war there was primarily about Crimea i.e. cutting off Russia from Mediterranean Sea (and Syria).
While this may change pretty quick, looking at the current state of things Russia will most likely have no fresh direct interventions for now.

Hannibal Barca wrote:Since the war in Syria ended, officially at least, a short summary.

Russian forces seems that have prerformed quite well. Quality wise, at least on parity with what Americans could show lately and certainly better than in Abhazia.
The modernization is somewhat evident, but yet limited. All in all 8/10 I would say.

Seems like America & all cannot afford right now a military confrontation. So it is absolutely important for Russian/Chinese leadership to remember the lesson of Vietnam.
They need an immediate follow up, decisive and central hit, to force American puppets all over the world to retreat their support to the team that loses and paralyze the American overextended patient.
Americans will try the same recipe (Kissinger is still the great master) and will attempt an economic/ideological stronghold with their vassals attempting to stagnate the coalition.
An immediate, centralized hit, is the counter-strike that missed in the 70s and lead to total disaster.
A strike either in the very heart of Europe or my personal preference Israel itself. This will derail neo-cons completely, and force them to play on their own ground, before they will have time to consolidate, diversify and re-attack. Before Russia lose Belarus and Kazakhstan as well, before China become the Japan of the 2020s....

Has Russia the energy required for a follow up?
Hard task, Putin is failing in the internal ideological front, Russia still loses brains to Western enemies and ever remains not attractive to foreign talents.
Can China change mindset?
Plausible, but they lag terrible behind. Decades later cannot create a semi-decent jet engine or built a damn blue water navy, they are lacking plan and maybe the talents of the white race, someone might say. There is no Chinese Hollywood, no Chinese music, clothes or way of life. Patience is good, but patience without plan is idleness.

American strategists are not clever, unlike what they think, they are predictable and simplistic, it is only that Eastern nations have no strategy at all, no willingness and ultimately no balls.

Wouldn't chose the same words but I do agree that you can't keep playing defense and expect to win or even draw. Key American allies need to become part of the chessboard. For the last 30-40 years more or less yes....fear, inability due to fear/unwillingness......ultimately no balls to go on the offensive. Detente my ass....someone came belly up with detente.

GarryB wrote:I think Putin is sensible and level headed enough to not go on unnecessary adventures... they had to go to Syria... or the government forces would have collapsed.

The other places you mention are not that critical... let the US be the worlds police and suffer accordingly... they love the power...

Central Asia is not critical area.......? Your wrong that's in Russias backyard not to mention trade as well. The last thing Russia needs or wants is a conflict there as it WILL intervene if it happens it will also threaten chinese one road one belt project. We have to remember just how many uzbeks went to fight in Syria and you still have fighter's from other central Asian countries coming back to export there radical ideas to others. So central Asia is a time bomb. When I was there plenty of radicals on street I only got away without trouble as I told them I was Scottish which they liked and kept saying Johnny walker whisky. They said Americans and English/British are bad obviously his geography wasn't good not knowing that Scotland is within the UK (for now ) and Ukraine will kick off again for sure.

Hannibal Barca wrote:Since the war in Syria ended, officially at least, a short summary.....

IMO you're looking at it too much from a purely military perspective. The contest is primaraly economic and what the world will look like in 20, 30 years from now and beyond.

Well I prefer Russia stay out of the active war game... but I don't think they should take things lying down from the US/NATO/West either.

The U.S is not the world police and its interventionist foreign policy (including military intervention) has nothing to do with some sort of justice or altruism. These are cliche's which pollute discussion on the issue by sugarcoating the true nature of the activity - imperial management. Same as PMC's being used as a term for mercenary....etc etc etc. Sugarcoating.

I totally agree... Lynch mob would be a better description...

Following that logic, if I broke into your house and started smashing and stealing things you would say I'm a police officer?

I don't like it any more than you do...

Comparing US to police is just wrong and portrays a completely wrong picture which has nothing to do with reality.

Again... totally agree... bunch of self serving ass holes, that are rent a mob type thugs...

Looks like my prediction on central Asia might come sooner than later.

Russian tank forces, attack helicopters move towards Afghanistan through Tajikistan


BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:05 P.M.) – Armored and attack helicopter units of the Russian Armed Forces have begun deploying towards the Afghan-Tajikistan border over the last several days in a move that will see the Moscow expand its military presence in Central Asia.

According to official Russian sources, the Russian military has begun sending heavy equipment to Tajikistan in order to bolster the hard-pressed anti-terrorism efforts of the country’s border security forces.

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Among the array of Russian military assets being re-located to Tajikistan are T-72 main battle tanks, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, BTR-80 armored personnel carriers, Mi-24 attack helicopters and D-30 howitzers.

Tajikistan is a active member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led Central Asian military cooperation initiative.

The re-stationing of offensive forces by the Russian army in Tajikistan comes amid repeatedly expressed concerns by Moscow through official military-diplomatic channels that defeated terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq (such as the Islamic State) are most likely trying to expand their bases of operations in Central Asian countries, namely Afghanistan.

Even since the end of the Cold War, Russia has maintained a large division-sized base (the 201st Military Base) in Tajikistan which houses over seven thousand motorized rifle troops and their required fire support assets.


https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-tank-forces-attack-helicopters-move-towards-afghanistan-tajikistan/

Cyberspec wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:Since the war in Syria ended, officially at least, a short summary.....

IMO you're looking at it too much from a purely military perspective. The contest is primaraly economic and what the world will look like in 20, 30 years from now and beyond.

You missed the core of my argument.
In contests you built to what you do best. In the past, when a war, the winning coalition was always were England was.
Present days, typically, the losing coalition is where the USA is.
Good luck to battle them in nation building, influence or way of life.
Bring an f22 and a pak and I will put my money on pak.
Bring a 20 yo chick from Moscow, a USA passport and a Russian passport and we all know what she is going to pick....

Hannibal Barca wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:Since the war in Syria ended, officially at least, a short summary.....

IMO you're looking at it too much from a purely military perspective. The contest is primaraly economic and what the world will look like in 20, 30 years from now and beyond.

You missed the core of my argument.
In contests you built to what you do best. In the past, when a war, the winning coalition was always were England was.
Present days, typically, the losing coalition is where the USA is.
Good luck to battle them in nation building, influence or way of life.
Bring an f22 and a pak and I will put my money on pak.
Bring a 20 yo chick from Moscow, a USA passport and a Russian passport and we all know what she is going to pick....

Actually, Russia's population inflow, even Russians that had traveled west initially, have increased.  A lot of specialists that left around the late 90's and early 2000's are returning due to loss of work out west and overbloated system faced out west (especially from Canada).  Nationalism is on the rise amongst the youth in Russia.  Are they educated vs the previous talent? Of course seeing as the educational structure is still the same.

Of course you will get some ditsy 20 year old chick from Moscow who may want the high life in USA.  But you will find on both spectrums.  Stating things are black and white are not exactly correct.

As for foreign specialists, you will also find that they are bringing in German and Ukrainian engineers (Ukrainian for obvious reasons, German and French because of foreign industries opening up shop).

I would say your logic is rather dated.  About 5 - 10 years dated.

As for rebuilding Syria, they have their core capabilities that would benefit Syria economically and militarily. But they will not be able to just pump endless amount of printed paper into it. Instead, investments will go into various construction, factories in production of parts and assembly of goods like farming, construction equipment and other heavy industries. Russia's energy projects will also make their way there (already there) and processing too. All of this can constitute to tens of billions of dollars a year. But of course Syria will also need assistance from Iran and China for other major industries that Russia seems less capable of expanding (for whatever reason).

Hannibal Barca wrote:Bring a 20 yo chick from Moscow, a USA passport and a Russian passport and we all know what she is going to pick....

I wouldn't bet on it...

back on topic ... i reckon Sudan ... Sudan wants Russian military bases in it's territory to protect Sudan primarily from America and pirates/slavers

https://sputniknews.com/africa/201711281059505761-sudan-russia-military-base/

https://sputniknews.com/africa/201711251059426070-sudan-base-talks-weapons-putin/

It is very difficult to predict exactly the course of world events . But I think we can say that there will be more conflicts and wars . And Russia will not be exempt from that . But what Russia can do , as opposed to the west , is to encourage the growth of local industry . And allow under-developed nations defend against aggression . We can all talk about probabilities . But I also think that we can talk about possibilities . Not future actual possibilities . As nobody knows that . But future hypothetical possibilities .

For example , before the defeat of the rats in Iraq and Syria , was it too difficult to imagine that the rats had no future ? I think it was easy to think about this outcome . Given the mental realities of our people and of our region . By the same token , how do we imagine the future to be , as far as the conflicts in Palestine and Yemen ?

Is it possible to imagine that all palestinians will be expelled from Usrael ? Yes they can . Is it possible to imagine that only a Jewish ethnic state will exist ? Yes we can . Is it possible to imagine that the muslim holy shrines will then be destroyed ? Yes they will . Can we then imagine that the muslims will be at war and destroy the jewish state ? Yes they will .

Similarly can we imagine millions of yemen people dying of disease and starvation ? No we can not . Can we imagine the houthis being ethnically cleansed ? No we can not . Can we imagine the saudi blockade lasting forever ? No we can not . Can we imagine external and internal factors leading to a halt to the war and lifting of blockade ? Yes we can . This is the hypothetical possibility .

ATLASCUB wrote:Prob Central Asia if the FSB/High Leadership allows it with incompetence.

The U.S is not the world police and its interventionist foreign policy (including military intervention) has nothing to do with some sort of justice or altruism. These are cliche's which pollute discussion on the issue by sugarcoating the true nature of the activity - imperial management. Same as PMC's being used as a term for mercenary....etc etc etc. Sugarcoating.

+1

already there are IS clusters right next to former USSR repubics.

KiloGolf wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:Prob Central Asia if the FSB/High Leadership allows it with incompetence.

The U.S is not the world police and its interventionist foreign policy (including military intervention) has nothing to do with some sort of justice or altruism. These are cliche's which pollute discussion on the issue by sugarcoating the true nature of the activity - imperial management. Same as PMC's being used as a term for mercenary....etc etc etc. Sugarcoating.

+1

already there are IS clusters right next to former USSR repubics.  
............

Maybe we will finally see FOAB in action. I feel they missed opportunity in Syria...

More evidence pointing to central Asia.

Two paragraphs taken from article.

"Mesbah believes that Western countries, in particular the US, are trying to throw sand in Russia's gears following Moscow's successful aerial operation in Syria. According to the observer, Afghanistan's northern regions could be used by the US as a bulwark against Russia."

"Meanwhile, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov highlighted that, according to the latest estimates, more than 10,000 fighters have joined Daesh in the country. Russia has repeatedly expressed concerns over the increasing influence of the terrorist group in Afghanistan and offered Kabul a helping hand to cope with the problem."

https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201712271060365040-afghanistan-daesh-foothold/?utm_source=adfox_site_41917&utm_medium=adfox_banner_2354184&utm_campaign=adfox_campaign_626010&ues=1

d_taddei2 wrote:More evidence pointing to central Asia.

Two paragraphs taken from article.

"Mesbah believes that Western countries, in particular the US, are trying to throw sand in Russia's gears following Moscow's successful aerial operation in Syria. According to the observer, Afghanistan's northern regions could be used by the US as a bulwark against Russia."

"Meanwhile, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov highlighted that, according to the latest estimates, more than 10,000 fighters have joined Daesh in the country. Russia has repeatedly expressed concerns over the increasing influence of the terrorist group in Afghanistan and offered Kabul a helping hand to cope with the problem."

https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201712271060365040-afghanistan-daesh-foothold/?utm_source=adfox_site_41917&utm_medium=adfox_banner_2354184&utm_campaign=adfox_campaign_626010&ues=1

i wonder who could be helping Daesh in Afghanistan ??? their old pals the USA up to no good again ??

Godric wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:More evidence pointing to central Asia.

Two paragraphs taken from article.

"Mesbah believes that Western countries, in particular the US, are trying to throw sand in Russia's gears following Moscow's successful aerial operation in Syria. According to the observer, Afghanistan's northern regions could be used by the US as a bulwark against Russia."

"Meanwhile, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov highlighted that, according to the latest estimates, more than 10,000 fighters have joined Daesh in the country. Russia has repeatedly expressed concerns over the increasing influence of the terrorist group in Afghanistan and offered Kabul a helping hand to cope with the problem."

https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201712271060365040-afghanistan-daesh-foothold/?utm_source=adfox_site_41917&utm_medium=adfox_banner_2354184&utm_campaign=adfox_campaign_626010&ues=1

i wonder who could be helping Daesh in Afghanistan ??? their old pals the USA up to no good again ??

Lol could be right there loooool and Usa had the cheek a few months ago accusing Russia of funding taliban which was complete and utter shite. Usa funds terrorism plain and simple

They more or less failed in Syria which was farther from Russia ,than Afghanistan...
So in Afghanistan they will have no chance that Russia is closer ,and can't be blocked
as was the case of Syria (with help of Turkey and Israel intervension)/

So afghanistan is a diversion in my opinion.. a training center of terrorism..

So my bet will be Ukraine will be used to instigate Russia into a war..
For example Moldova. which is next to Ukraine.. Russia have a thousands
of soldiers with UN support in the eastern most part ,so a war there will be a big
problem ,because Russia will be locked and forced to fly over Ukraine airspace
with US/NATO aiding Ukraine to shotdown Russian planes. Another one is Serbia.
a new conflict there will be very bad for Russia.. because could be too far ,from Russia
for a proper support. Check also Norway.. and findland.. border with Russia.. Extremist
cells of terrorist being formed there by Russia enemies. So called no go zones of muslim
in EUrope are the main centers/school of future "freedom fighters" that will be repeating
Syria conflict in another place... So Russia will need to use very effective diplomacy to counter
US destructive anti Russian policies in eastern Europe. Because with military alone ,you can't win wars.. you need effective diplomacy ,that allows Russia to move forward as it was the case
of Syria.. they for example managed to freeze the conflict (even at the loss of territory for Syria) but still Russia managed to Save it from being totally over run by Israel/US/Saudi sponsored ISIS fighters ,which was the original plan. So all this crazy policies of the west
of pressuring NATO partners to welcome extremist muslim and incite extremism they can control and manipulate ,was nothing more NATO secret armies to fight by Proxy Russia.
So watch Serbia/Montenegro... and Moldova..and maybe they could try something new in Ukraine... any dangerous conflict.. for Russia . is one where they don't have easy movement to that place or the place totally landlocked for Russia to help..as moldova (tranistria) is.. So im more worried about a conflict in Moldova ,were Russian soldiers are attacked or in Serbia.. victoria nuland tried to incite a conflict there.. Turkey could also be offered a deal $$$ to betray Russia and restart the destabilization of Syria. To try a vietnam for Russia In Lybia will not be a good move ,since Russia have no important issues there to interfere as was CRimea or Syria. A coup in kazakistan by extremist will be most dangerous security threat for Russia.. so they need to make sure an Euromaidan never happens there.. Afghanistan i don't see it as a major
issue as long Russia can keep them at distance from its allied former soviet states in the north.