The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

JohninMK wrote:
Kevin Rothrock
‏Verified account @KevinRothrock
45m45 minutes ago

The Ukrainian pilot who flew the Su-25 jet that Russia has blamed for shooting down MH17 — has killed himself. If you thought there were wild conspiracy stories about him before, hold onto your butts, folks.

How do we know he killed himself?  Because no exotic weapon was used.   How absurd.
People are such stupid sheep.   It is extremely easy to fake a suicide.    That is why none
of the ludicrous claims about Putin offing "critics" with Polonium and NovichokS are credible.
The default assumption by US police when finding a body the residence of the victim is that
it was suicide.    For example, take the case of the Mihail Lesin who was proclaimed
to have died through no foul play.   In fact, the autopsy shows he was bludgeoned to death.

kvs wrote:

JohninMK wrote:
Kevin Rothrock
‏Verified account @KevinRothrock
45m45 minutes ago

The Ukrainian pilot who flew the Su-25 jet that Russia has blamed for shooting down MH17 — has killed himself. If you thought there were wild conspiracy stories about him before, hold onto your butts, folks.

How do we know he killed himself?  Because no exotic weapon was used.   How absurd.
People are such stupid sheep.   It is extremely easy to fake a suicide.    That is why none
of the ludicrous claims about Putin offing "critics" with Polonium and NovichokS are credible.
The default assumption by US police when finding a body the residence of the victim is that
it was suicide.    For example, take the case of the Mihail Lesin who was proclaimed
to have died through no foul play.   In fact, the autopsy shows he was bludgeoned to death.

He got a probably well paid job as an airport administrator, was proclaimed in Ukraine as a war hero (he flew 33 combat sorties against the New Russia), and all of the suddenly he decides to kill himself?

That does not make sense.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/pilot-blamed-by-russia-for-mh17-crash-dies/ar-BBKpN8A?li=AAggFp5&ocid=SKY2DHP

The unbiased police will make sense of it

The case over the suspected suicide of Vladyslav Voloshyn, acting director of Mykolaiv International Airport and a former military pilot and veteran of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) in Donbas, has been sent for full investigation to the National Police branch in Mykolaiv region.

A criminal inquiry has been launched on the charge of "premeditated murder," the inquiries will focus on all possible theories and causes which may have led to the tragedy, a spokesperson for the branch wrote on Facebook on Monday.

To ensure a full and unbiased investigation, the case has been entrusted to police investigators in the Mykolaiv region, inquiries are under way, the post said.

"The National Police's main directorate in the Mykolaiv region expresses its sincere condolences to the family of Vladyslav Voloshyn, acting general director of Mykolaiv International Airport, and notes that the branch's chief, third-rank Police General Yuriy Moroz has taken charge of the investigation," the police said.

Meanwhile, Oleksiy Savchenko, head of Mykolaiv Regional Administration, has expressed his indignation at the rumors sparked by Voloshyn's death, and said he was waiting to hear an official position from the relevant authorities. "Many of those who did not even know Vlad and his work at the enterprise [Mykolaiv airport] have begun spreading all kinds of nonsense about some millions worth of tenders and so on. Some started circulating Vlad's correspondence with, as far as I understand, former managers of Mykolaiv International Airport, who were the ones who messed up," Savchenko wrote on his Facebook page on Monday. He warned everyone against getting involved in something they did not understand. "There are law enforcement authorities who will investigate what happened objectively and fairly. I am awaiting the official position of the competent authorities and for everyone involved in the incident, all nuances notwithstanding, to be held to account," Savchenko said.

It was reported that Voloshyn died on March 18. He was rushed to a hospital where he died from sustained injuries. "According to his relatives, the man had recently felt depressed and expressed alarming intentions," the police said.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/493095.html

Voting with their feet

JohninMK wrote:Voting with their feet

Given the bitter history between Poland and Ukraine, this behaviour is very peculiar. I guess the regions of Ukraine occupied by Poland
became assimilated. Contrast this to the so-called Russification that appears to have achieve nothing.

The conclusion is that a good ass raping gets occupied people to convert to the side of the occupier. Treat them with fairness and they
hate you for it. Humans are seriously brain damaged animals.

Very interesting summary of the uprising and war in Donbass that throws some light on the convoluted process and betrayals that led to the war and the present stagnation

http://antimaydan.info/2018/03/triumf_i_tragediya_donbassa.html

In short: A colossal fuckup by all involved and improvisation after another. There is no such a thing as a "sly plan" Putin, the Kremlin beyond Crimea, which applied a contingency plan already planned, did not know what to do in Ukraine, and above all, its aability to maneuver and influence events was very limited. I still think they made a colossal mistake in wasting the victory in September 2014, but we do not know what happened then, maybe they received threats from the Americans to intervene in support of the junta and they had to sheathe the sword. Now, four years later, we begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

such a sad development, I guess the expected outcome about the collapse of the Kiev junta won't happen anytime soon.

Never believe your own propaganda.

The "Kiev junta is gonna fall soon" nonsense is like the walking meme that is "The U.S.A is gonna go belly up x year" that has been going on for decades.

The Kiev junta has no legitimate opposition nor threat to its existence other than its own fuck ups. Thus, it can leech off as a dictatorial regime for years and years. It's not in Uncle's Sam crosshairs, to the contrary, on Russia's crosshair....which means very little. There is difference in power there - and it's significant.

Drama much...?

Russia should hope a pro Russian party never gains power in the Ukraine... I would say the vast majority of Ukrainians don't want to be Russia, but would happly mooch off Russia all the while complaining about how everything is Russias fault.

Bugger that.

Let the EU have the Ukraine, or break it up into little pieces and let each piece decide...

If parts want to join the Russian federation then that is OK... it can be decided on a case by case basis... but taking all those bitter anti Russians is not worth it in the long run or the short run... let them fester in their hate... I am sure that is a recipe for future success.

Anyone remember this ''political prisoner''? (Savchenko) 

Her fresh arrest warrant, at least she had ''practice'':

GarryB wrote:Russia should hope a pro Russian party never gains power in the Ukraine... I would say the vast majority of Ukrainians don't want to be Russia, but would happly mooch off Russia all the while complaining about how everything is Russias fault.

Absolute nonsense. You're looking at it from a short term pov. Propaganda is a helluva drug and it works both ways. The average "Ukrainian" was happy to be part of Russia pre-revolution. Was a happy Soviet post revolution, and has been a miserable Ukranian ever since the split from the motherland - having lost identity. You're generalizing "feelings" as if they are uniform and not affected by a variety of issues and competing narratives.

Let the EU have the Ukraine, or break it up into little pieces and let each piece decide...

This statement contradicts itself. Not to mention it's a white flag. Ukraine is but a piece in the grand chessboard - an attack to weaken Russian proper by depriving it of friendly nations along its periphery.

What's happening in Ukraine is a tragedy both of Russian/Ukranian making and off outside interference. Divided you're weak, united you're strong. A Yugoslavia scenario will be just what Russia's enemies ordered. Russia proper (that is, Russia after Soviet split) would have fared the same if the Chechen Wars weren't properly won.

This is the script... different methods, different locations, different times, same goal - divide and conquer. Countries with further divides in thought, races etc are united, strong and remain united - premier example being the U.S itself. What matters is economic power and the unity that power provides.

With the new salvos of the coming trade-war between the U.S and China, (if it really materializes)....which means I'll be fucked up somewhat but that's a personal matter anyway.....Russia is poised to benefit the most (if the Russian leadership takes advantage of the feud). The times are ripe for a Great Russia revival, but the right leadership is key. Is Putin and his entourage that leadership? History will judge.

Atlas, I know you aren't stupid but lets look at reality. Using Ukraine as some kind of buffer zone wasn't going to work anyway, because it was obvious that a huge portion of Ukraine was nothing but a bunch of benedict arnolds. In the end, Russia knows who its enemies are and who are not. At least they can use the Donbass and Lugansk as a method of a potential buffer zone and that buffer zone isn't completed just yet.

The average "Ukrainian" was happy to be part of Russia pre-revolution. Was a happy Soviet post revolution, and has been a miserable Ukranian ever since the split from the motherland - having lost identity.

They wanted to be rescued from Russian oppression and they are... they have everything they wanted and you say they are miserable.

You're generalizing "feelings" as if they are uniform and not affected by a variety of issues and competing narratives.

Oh, I am generalising feelings but the average ukrainian was happy to be part of russia prerevolution, happy soviet and now miserable... who exactly is generalising?

This statement contradicts itself. Not to mention it's a white flag. Ukraine is but a piece in the grand chessboard - an attack to weaken Russian proper by depriving it of friendly nations along its periphery.

Some things are not worth having... let the ukrainian people decide... they can decide with a vote or they can vote with their feet... they can vote to join Russia or they can physically move to Russia and start over, but this false fair weather friend shit is getting old.

If a Russia friendly government gets into power and they investigate all the crimes including that building that all those people were burned to death in, then maybe they can talk to Russia, but really the Ukraine has pushed Russia away not the other way around... when a man beats his wife but then says he is sorry what idiot would take him back... especially when he has no income and sponges off the wife for his comfortable life...

What's happening in Ukraine is a tragedy both of Russian/Ukranian making and off outside interference. Divided you're weak, united you're strong. A Yugoslavia scenario will be just what Russia's enemies ordered. Russia proper (that is, Russia after Soviet split) would have fared the same if the Chechen Wars weren't properly won.

Having the Ukraine as a friend until they get a better offer does not make Russia strong... it will cost a fortune to fix the Ukraine and you can bet your ass the west wont pay for it... let them pick up the bill.

This is the script... different methods, different locations, different times, same goal - divide and conquer. Countries with further divides in thought, races etc are united, strong and remain united - premier example being the U.S itself. What matters is economic power and the unity that power provides.

Russia wont be stronger having to put the Ukraine back together... Russia is stronger without the Ukraine.

With the new salvos of the coming trade-war between the U.S and China, (if it really materializes)....which means I'll be fucked up somewhat but that's a personal matter anyway.....Russia is poised to benefit the most (if the Russian leadership takes advantage of the feud). The times are ripe for a Great Russia revival, but the right leadership is key. Is Putin and his entourage that leadership? History will judge.

What difference does the Ukraine make to a trade war between the US and China?

The US will continue sanctions against Russia so its trade with the US will remain insignificant, while its trade with China will probably grow when the US market becomes more problematic. Like China, Russia will likely look elsewhere to different markets where there is no so much money but rather more potential to sell products like Asia, Like central and south america and like africa.

Much better potential trade partners that are not interested in screwing you and stunting your development to keep you under the thumb.

South Africa on its own shows great promise as the new policies of the new leader seem to be to take land from rich white people without compensation... the opposite of the imperial mantra that the world is better off with the natives working the farms owned by the rich white land owners who make all the money and enjoy all the comfort.... why that is communism... or these days they will call it terrorism...

ATLASCUB wrote:The average "Ukrainian" was happy to be part of Russia pre-revolution. Was a happy Soviet post revolution, and has been a miserable Ukranian ever since the split from the motherland - having lost identity.

This is complete nonsense

Ukrainians never had any loyalty other to their own etno-racist agenda and sense for entitlement, just ask Russians, Poles or Jews (but you will need necromancer for that because local ones are predominantly all dead by now)

In all these years they remain loyal to their original masters from Berlin and even though those same masters abandoned that philosophy long ago, it doesn't matter to Ukrainians

And most importantly, alll Ukrainians are accustomed to being treated as special higher class and inherently more valuable specimens when compared to other "subhumans"

During USSR they were treated as royalty, while everyone else was freezing and starving they never experienced any big problems because they were given showcase status

Even after Cold War ended they were always seen as special ones who deserve better than everyone else and who expect to be given everything they need by someone else (Russia again)

While Eastern parts of Russia didn't even have proper heating and were freezing to death in early 90's Ukraine inherited economy strong enough to qualify her for slot in what was originally supposed to be G9 before it was trimmed down to G8

Handout and special treatment time is over, Ukraine needs to be depopulated and partitioned into more manageable parts

Time to face reality, nobody is special least of all "Ukrainians​"

I cannot speak on behalf of the Russians, but this sounds like a plan, but don't know how influential is the author

http://antimaydan.info/2018/03/recept_usmireniya_bantustana.html

My only objection is that this not ambitious enough, not just the Donbass, but Kiev the whole east bank of the Dnieper and the south must return to Russia, leave West Ukraine to be gobbled up by Poland and remove the problem of the natives, or at least make them someone's else problem.

Also, Ukraine will not survive another major defeat, once the collapse starts, there will not be stop until the Dnieper, and perhaps even beyond.


Recipe for pacification of Bantustan




War in Ukraine





2018-03-23 ​​12:59

maydan , Donetsk and Makeevka news today, 2018

Aggression of Ukraine against Donbass time to put an end. For this, all conditions have now matured. To begin with, it is necessary to bring the legal base, first of all, to record that Ukraine has thwarted the implementation of the Minsk agreements. They recently adopted a law on the reintegration of the Donbas, which effectively crosses out all agreements. In this connection, it is appropriate for Russia to raise the issue that Kiev violated the Minsk agreements and adopt a resolution condemning Ukraine. Of course, the West will issue this resolution, but it does not matter. The main thing is that we will fix our position, after which we will say that after an unconstructive approach on the part of Ukraine and the West, we recognize the independence of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

After the recognition of independence, we establish diplomatic relations with the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, open the border with them, establish a wide variety of connections, recognize their documents - in short, we carry out the whole range of relevant activities. At a certain stage, it is necessary to sign an agreement with Donetsk and Lugansk on providing them military assistance.

We are waiting for the reaction of the Ukrainian side. If Ukraine already at an early stage intensifies its attacks on the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, then we need to carry out a large-scale military operation to liberate these regions, referring to the territories in the form they existed in Ukraine. We will have to deal a powerful blow to the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the help of the Russian Air Force. And the troops of the People's Democratic Republic and the People's Democratic Republic, supported by our various volunteer formations, who have already proved themselves to be well established in Syria, must directly advance. They can be withdrawn from Syria and further strengthened by technology, various systems of modern weapons. Taking into account the fact that Russian military aircraft suppress the basic firepower of the Ukrainian army, they will be able to defeat the Ukrainian army and throw it out of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

And then - do not stop the offensive until Kiev signs a truce. Approximately the same situation was in Nagorno-Karabakh: the Armenians were advancing, advancing, Azerbaijan did not want, did not want, but then was forced to sign a truce.

The truce will fix a certain line already outside the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, where the Ukrainian army will be located. It will be far away and will not be able to shell the settlements of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

After that, we can start the normal development of these areas, integrate them into our common economic space. Naturally, these regions somehow will be mutually influential in neighboring regions of Ukraine. As the standard of living there will improve in comparison with all-Ukrainian, Donetsk and Lugansk will become attractive for residents of other regions of Ukraine. Those too will want to secede. And then they need to help political, diplomatic, and if necessary, then by force. But this is already at a more advanced stage.

I think that by the year 2035 Ukraine will find itself in such a confederal, sprawling state. Of course, the West will try to finance it financially and economically, but the West itself will have more resources for this, there will not be enough money for its problems.

Ukraine, as a strategic asset, will lose its importance to a greater extent, as it will be significantly removed from the Russian borders on the Donetsk and Lugansk directions, and turn into uncontrolled territory. It is unlikely to be able to invest large resources in it. Gradually, the decentralization processes will be strengthened in Ukraine, which we need to support, create an attractive image of the confederative association of Novorossia, where Donetsk and Lugansk republics can invite other republics (regions of Ukraine) to join - the Kharkov, Odessa and other regions. In the long term, this can be increased with the addition of other areas.

Mikhail Alexandrov,

Doctor of Political Sciences, leading expert of the Center for Military and Political Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations

Source: www.segodnia.ru

Disagree with both posters (some of the arguments are too emotionally charged as well - hec Sunni's and Shia's get along better ). Ukraine can not be lost to Russia, certainly not over 80% of its territory as currently constructed. And the Ukraine today is not lost to Russia despite the best efforts of its adversaries (with the help of local oligarchs and reactionary elements) to burn the whole thing down. The important thing is that they do not control the future of Ukraine, despite the havoc and damage they have created and the extent they have gone to split the people. As long as that stays true, (even if these adversaries sit in power in Kiev) Russia has ways to play the geopolitical game and shape the future of Ukraine. Losing Ukraine, as the defeatist argument you both propose, is first of all, an strategic failure. Second of all, with that sort of logic and rational you both would make whole nations disappear overnight and be servant of colonial powers forever - then complain about why the meanies remain dominant meanies. Well yes...dumb leadership and logic will do that.

If Putin doesn't want to own the biggest geopolitical disaster of the 21st century, as the dissolution of the Soviet Union was for the 20th, he better step up his game, with the time he now has in his hands - and take advantage of world developments as they come. Cause he's half-way in there. It will look badly on Russians for another Russian leader in 20-30 years to lament that the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 21st century was losing Ukraine and not fighting for it (whatever the means or forms). And lament about this usually as a reaction to the realization that the enemy has inched closer to its goal with its foot on their throat - the "too late" syndrome.

What is there to fight for?

If Ukrainians don't want Russia in the Ukraine what exactly is Putin supposed to do?

Invade with Russian troops to fight for some Ukrainians that wont fight for themselves against other Ukrainians who are fighting for Washington and London in the hope they will receive the breadcrumbs of fighting for a lost cause?

As it stands large areas of the Ukraine have stood up and said they don't want to be ruled by Kiev after the illegal coup and dodgy post coup elections.

They have not said they want to be any part of Russia and they have not said they are Russian people, though they are happy to get Russian support where offered.

If those Ukrainians don't want to remove the illegal government and just want to stay in their own homes it is hardly up to Russia to go in and deal with the illegal kiev administration... partly because even if they did there is no one to take their place that you could guarantee would be any better for anyone.

Even if they were hard line pro Russia, the Ukraine is broken and full of people who are anti Russian and would happily sabotage anything they might try to fix the situation.

The people of the Crimea were mostly Russians anyway and they had a free and fair referendum and decided to become part of Russia again... by an overwhelming majority.

If it was 50/50 then I would have said just give them autonomy and a good relationship with Russia for 5-10 years and then have another referendum to see if they wanted to join in a greater majority... if less than 75% of the voting population does not vote for it there are too many against for it to succeed.

Maybe after 5 or 10 years the Ukraine might be ready, but I doubt it... especially when europe cuts off their gas supply because it costs too much.

Again, I cannot claim to be Russian, I only think that if I put myself in their valenki, as a Russian I would feel the urge to reclaim the lost territory of all the Russias, including the White and the Little Russias.

There's no question that Kiev is a Russian city, the question is what to do with Galitzia and the traitors, and how to assimilate Ukraine. It's a long term project given the still weak position of Russia, but in the meantime, the Novorussia project should be restarted and have Ukraine reformatted. West Ukraine is not needed, it's no loss to hand it to Poland. Let Hungary take another piece.

Ukrainians can be easily assimilated, once under Russian rule, they will forget that they were ever Ukrainians, but to do this a large purge is needed. Thousands would have to be shot for their crimes, and hundreds of thousands deported to Siberia. I would settle Ukraine with Russians from the Baltics, encourage them to emigrate.

I understand that for now Russia has her back to the wall and can only defend from the US attacks while building up strength to reconquer the lost lands in the future, but that does not mean to write off Ukraine forever.

Well, enough rambling. i wanted to comment on the global strategic balance as of this spring.

Bad news, the rearmament program in Russia has to slow down, not enough money, read this using google trans:

http://antimaydan.info/2018/03/rossijskoj_armii_nanesli_udar_s_tyla.html

Seems Russia has achieved strategic parity with USA with the new missiles, wich ensure muclear deterrence,and with hypersonic missiles limit the strike capability of US fleet, wich compensates for inferiority of the air force, until Russia has a couple hundred SU-57 in service.

That's the good news, but the bad news is that they spent money on missiles and there's not enough for warships, airplanes and tanks

Seems Putin is confident enough to have scared the US back to the negotiation table, that he is gambling to invest on butter over guns, to develop Russia economy in the long term.

But that means still being on the defensive and having to thread very carefully until 2020.

I do not count on Trump winning a second term, the best that can be hoped for is the US being paralyzed by faction infighting, or going after another target, ie, war with Iran.

After 2020, likely facing a more aggressive US president, the Russians then will have no choice but to spend everything on weapons, let's hope then they have enough time left for mass production to ramp up in time to field enough modern weapons to discourage the US from war with Russia.


Though I am happy and relieved for Russia, this is very bad news for Novorussia, wich will not be allowed to fight back yet. Only hope is that Ukraine attacks this summer, forcing Russia to intervene, or that the Ukraine regime ends up collapsing

kvs wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Voting with their feet

Given the bitter history between Poland and Ukraine, this behaviour is very peculiar.   I guess the regions of Ukraine occupied by Poland
became assimilated.   Contrast this to the so-called Russification that appears to have achieve nothing.    

The conclusion is that a good ass raping gets occupied people to convert to the side of the occupier.   Treat them with fairness and they
hate you for it.   Humans are seriously brain damaged animals.

Hardly anybody in Ukraine got assimilated.

Even after centuries of Polish rule in Ukraine, there was very little Polonization.

In fact there was more of Ukrainization of ethnic Poles in Ukraine, than of Polonization of ethnic Ukrainians. Probably most of the "Galician petty nobility" are Ukrainianized ethnic Poles.


There are so many Ukrainians going to Poland because they get treated there, for the most part, in a very generous manner. You can thank all these ethnic Ukrainians and Germans in the Polish government for that. Also the Polish entry visas are super easy to obtain for Ukrainians;  there is virtually no checking of any sort, a visa is processed in literally a few seconds. Even serious criminals, like murderers, get them. There was recently a case in Eastern Pomerania of a Ukrainian who run a restaurant there, it turned out he was a wanted murderer in Ukraine (I think he might have been deported, but only after Ukraine requested his deportation).

And yes, they steal jobs from the ethnic Poles in their own country, and they also get the social assistance benefits despite the fact that Ukraine is not even in the European Union. They also bring in lots of criminality and of their Polish-hating nationalism to Poland.

Many Polish people are upset about their increasingly heavy presence and very favorable treatment.

Poland even pays university tuition for all their students in Poland (it does not do so for any other citizens), and it even pays employers to hire them (again, it does not pay them to hire citizens of any other country).

And the stupid Polish government refused entry for a few thousand genuine refugees from Syria, but at the same time they have no problems accepting a couple of millions of fake refugees from Ukraine.


So you see, it is all about the selfish benefits they get from Poland.

From what you say O of O it sounds to me as if the Polish Government has a strategic policy of attracting as many Ukrainians as possible into the country.

Perhaps in the short term to replace all the Poles who have moved into other EU countries but also, just like all the other countries in Europe including Russia, Poland has an ageing population and what better way to boost their numbers of younger citizens than let in as many Ukrainians as possible and make it attractive enough for then to want to stay, for ever. Exactly the Russian strategy. They just have to make sure that the old Ukrainians stay back at home.

This double pronged attack on Ukraine is of course having a devastating short and long term affect. Whilst in the medium term it will ensure the financial collapse of the country allowing in the financial vultures to buy the remains at very good, for them, prices.

It will of course in the short term continue to reduce the pool of potential soldiers as even more flee the country, so increasing the pressure on those already in the ATO. If Kiev doesn't try to do something about Donbas soon they may never be able to.

Another call up of conscripts, I believe it's the 10th or so, lost count. Despite the inflated claims of having a quarter million troops in arms, available evidence suggests they lost again a few thousand killed during 2017 and levvies only serve to fill in the ranks

Got in telegram in touch witth a couple some militia fighters who speak spanish, war of positions continues business as usual, unreported, it has winded down some during so called "truces" this winter, but not by much

http://antimaydan.info/2018/03/prizyv_obyavlen_prizyvniki_vrassypnuu.html

Ispan wrote:Again, I cannot claim to be Russian, I only think that if I put myself in their valenki, as a Russian I would feel the urge to reclaim the lost territory of all the Russias, including the White and the Little Russias.

There's no question that Kiev is a Russian city, the question is what to do with Galitzia and the traitors, and how to assimilate Ukraine. It's a long term project given the still weak position of Russia, but in the meantime, the Novorussia project should be restarted and have Ukraine reformatted. West Ukraine is not needed, it's no loss to hand it to Poland. Let Hungary take another piece.

Ukrainians can be easily assimilated, once under Russian rule, they will forget that they were ever Ukrainians, but to do this a large purge is needed. Thousands would have to be shot for their crimes, and hundreds of thousands deported to Siberia. I would settle Ukraine with Russians from the Baltics, encourage them to emigrate.

I understand that for now Russia has her back to the wall and can only defend from the US attacks while building up strength to reconquer the lost lands in the future, but that does not mean to write off Ukraine forever.

Well, enough rambling. i wanted to comment on the global strategic balance as of this spring.

Bad news, the rearmament program in Russia has to slow down, not enough money, read this using google trans:

http://antimaydan.info/2018/03/rossijskoj_armii_nanesli_udar_s_tyla.html

Seems Russia has achieved strategic parity with USA with the new missiles, wich ensure muclear deterrence,and with hypersonic missiles limit the strike capability of US fleet, wich compensates for inferiority of the air force, until Russia has a couple hundred SU-57 in service.

That's the good news, but the bad news is that they spent money on missiles and there's not enough for warships, airplanes and tanks

Seems Putin is confident enough to have scared the US back to the negotiation table, that he is gambling to invest on butter over guns, to develop Russia economy in the long term.

But that means still being on the defensive and having to thread very carefully until 2020.

I do not count on Trump winning a second term, the best that can be hoped for is the US being paralyzed by faction infighting, or going after another target, ie, war with Iran.

After 2020, likely facing a more aggressive US president, the Russians then will have no choice but to spend everything on weapons, let's hope then they have enough time left for mass production to ramp up in time to field enough modern weapons to discourage the US from war with Russia.


Though I am happy and relieved for Russia, this is very bad news for Novorussia, wich will not be allowed to fight back yet. Only hope is that  Ukraine attacks this summer, forcing Russia to intervene, or that the Ukraine regime ends up collapsing

I don't think it is possible for Russia reclaim the territory because this would mean war and occupation and this is not in Russia's interests. What Russia should is instead try to get friendly governments in the territories that are important for Russia.

The rearmament will take an extra 2-3 years and that is ok because Russia still has more than enough airplanes, tanks and fighter Jets to defend it's interests at home and aboard. The Navy I think needs more time but it will get to a level where it is on par with western counterparts.

I don't think Trump will win a second term but that does not matter because Trump really isn't charge right now, it is the Neocons and the Zionists that control the US.

I don't think that the US will attack Iran because that will pull in Russia and China, the US is already losing influence. The best Russia can do is kill the petrodollar and create a multi polar world, this is already happening and that is why the US is freaking out.

I think Ukraine will slowly collapse, most of young Ukrainians are either going to Europe or to Russia. What Russia should do is try to convince more young Ukrainians to leave(especially the Nationalists and the Nazi's, get them to go to Europe and become a headache to the EU.)

JohninMK wrote:From what you say O of O it sounds to me as if the Polish Government has a strategic policy of attracting as many Ukrainians as possible into the country.

Perhaps in the short term to replace all the Poles who have moved into other EU countries but also, just like all the other countries in Europe including Russia, Poland has an ageing population and what better way to boost their numbers of younger citizens than let in as many Ukrainians as possible and make it attractive enough for then to want to stay, for ever. Exactly the Russian strategy. They just have to make sure that the old Ukrainians stay back at home.

This double pronged attack on Ukraine is of course having a devastating short and long term affect. Whilst in the medium term it will ensure the financial collapse of the country allowing in the financial vultures to buy the remains at very good, for them, prices.

It will of course in the short term continue to reduce the pool of potential soldiers as even more flee the country, so increasing the pressure on those already in the ATO. If Kiev doesn't try to do something about Donbas soon they may never be able to.

Would it not be better to make your country better, encourage more young people in your country to start families, create more jobs and populate from within, instead of bringing in third world scum. It is not going very well for Europe and here in Canada we will soon have the same problem. Canada has allowed a lot of Muslims, Blacks and other crap into country and they have become headache, they live on welfare(most of them will likely be on welfare for a very very very long time), they don't work because they don't need to(they are on welfare) and most Muslims Blacks have ruined the country by doing crime.