KoTeMoRe Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:00 pm
Problem with Iran is that the planes needed to take out 80% of INP should wage a three prong operation.
°HAARM/AR
°Protection of Strike package
°Actual delivery of Strike package.
Israel has somewhere 300/320 fighters available at any given time. With a 1/3-2/3 equation (66% availability factor) that's +/- 200 fighters.
Going through the UN IAEA findings, we find out that main targets are about 15 inside Iran.
This means A 15 formations of 4 (minimum) plus same shadow group for self defense and breach. That's 120 jets. If Ad hoc force is used for breach the all available jets or nearly would be engaged in striking Iranian sites.
Now just imagine even 10% of those planes are shot, most of them in VERY hostile area (Iran, KSA, Syria, Iraq). That's from 20 to 30 IDF pilots to Pidyon Shvuim. That's how you have a regional war in the Middle East.
So even if technically the Israel had the capability to do that, the prospect of losing a sizable portion of its Airforce and having to be humiliated in public by Iran, uh hum.
I said as much in MP.net back in 2011/12, Iran is just to big and too risky an operational challenge for Israel to do that and no one is in the mood to have Israel spread more havoc in the region. But the facts indicate that Israel simply has not the attrition numbers to sustain a Strike like that. And for good reason. Even if it shoots every fighter in Iranian inventory, the time to do that will mean that its jets will have to crash land in Qatar (at best) in the middle of IS land at worst.
So yeah, but no.