The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

medo wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Another train load of equipment heading down to Crimea. Various stuff with Rapira and T-72B. That they now have Bulat and T-72B deployed somewhere close to the border at Perekop is interesting as it shows they may be thinking seriously in terms of defending there.

I doubt 404 will attack Russian army in Crimea. Maybe they will do some provocations to make damage there, specially in tourism, but nothing more. I think this 404 army deployment is more in fear of rebelion in Kherson oblast, which is bordering Crimea, specially as 404 place a lot of jihadi terrorists there.

This is heavy gear, for fighting a real war not to counter an uprising.

JohninMK wrote:

medo wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Another train load of equipment heading down to Crimea. Various stuff with Rapira and T-72B. That they now have Bulat and T-72B deployed somewhere close to the border at Perekop is interesting as it shows they may be thinking seriously in terms of defending there.

I doubt 404 will attack Russian army in Crimea. Maybe they will do some provocations to make damage there, specially in tourism, but nothing more. I think this 404 army deployment is more in fear of rebelion in Kherson oblast, which is bordering Crimea, specially as 404 place a lot of jihadi terrorists there.

This is heavy gear, for fighting a real war not to counter an uprising.

Ukrops do not differ between these two scenarios.

To answer several questions. A lot of the equipment seen on trains a few weeks back seems straight from storage, and so does some of the more recent train loads. But they don't have many Bulat and T-72 so I would say they have redeployed them from elsewhere. Only 1 Separate Tank Brigade were equipped with Bulat, and the losses they suffered in 2014 have been made up by a mix of refurbished Bulat, possibly some of the T-64BM1M meant for Congo, and T-72. The T-80 brought into service, and it is still not clear if it was any more than a few companies, were to be deployed with ukrops VDV BTG, not normal tank battalions. Unless what we are seeing is a bluff and all the equipment is unserviceable, it seems odd to me that they would split the 1 Separate Tank Brigade on two fronts. We saw last week at least one of the three battalions at Volnovakha, and now maybe another battalion down at Perekop.  Certainly they are not going to invade Crimea, never, so it must be defensive and, if the equipment is fit for combat, because they expect an attack out of Crimea. If there is an offensive and then counter offensive, and when it goes wrong for Kiev, and VSN are chasing ukrops out of Donbass, Kiev will not know for sure when they will be told to stop, and despite it being extremely unlikely there will an offensive out of Crimea, impossible I would say, Kiev's paranoia will dictate that they need to defend Kherson and prevent any possibility of a VSN/Russian advance that looks like it could go to Odessa. Again, tho I  want that, I know it will not happen in the present political circumstances. I would say that Kiev putting what is for them serious assets at Crimea border is a sign of them thinking that the unthinkable might happen, and that they are very worried. Good..

I think it is more simple than that. I believe the ukrops are parading units in front of the cameras in Crimea to make Russian intelligence busy and distract them from Donbass. Then the materiel is backtracked to Nikolaev and sent to Donbass south front. It is a very circuitous route but I also believe the shorter route by Slavyansk is congested, and they know it's closely watched.

even if they deployed all their obsolete army to crimean border it wouldent mather

and russian secrete services have 100 times the efficiency and resources with satellites of anything the SBU has no way they will be "distracted" from anything important

Khepesh wrote:To answer several questions. A lot of the equipment seen on trains a few weeks back seems straight from storage, and so does some of the more recent train loads. But they don't have many Bulat and T-72 so I would say they have redeployed them from elsewhere. Only 1 Separate Tank Brigade were equipped with Bulat, and the losses they suffered in 2014 have been made up by a mix of refurbished Bulat, possibly some of the T-64BM1M meant for Congo, and T-72. The T-80 brought into service, and it is still not clear if it was any more than a few companies, were to be deployed with ukrops VDV BTG, not normal tank battalions. Unless what we are seeing is a bluff and all the equipment is unserviceable, it seems odd to me that they would split the 1 Separate Tank Brigade on two fronts. We saw last week at least one of the three battalions at Volnovakha, and now maybe another battalion down at Perekop.  Certainly they are not going to invade Crimea, never, so it must be defensive and, if the equipment is fit for combat, because they expect an attack out of Crimea. If there is an offensive and then counter offensive, and when it goes wrong for Kiev, and VSN are chasing ukrops out of Donbass, Kiev will not know for sure when they will be told to stop, and despite it being extremely unlikely there will an offensive out of Crimea, impossible I would say, Kiev's paranoia will dictate that they need to defend Kherson and prevent any possibility of a VSN/Russian advance that looks like it could go to Odessa. Again, tho I  want that, I know it will not happen in the present political circumstances. I would say that Kiev putting what is for them serious assets at Crimea border is a sign of them thinking that the unthinkable might happen, and that they are very worried. Good..

OK, see where your thoughts are, thanks.

Maybe Kiev thinks that if they strike in Donbas that there will be some kind of diversionary action out of Crimea and that these battalions would put up some kind of a fight, to at least deter the Russians from, what might otherwise have been, an unopposed crossing of the border.

Thing is if they even cough in general direction of the border with Russia they will feel the wrath of Good Lord Darwin...

Khepesh wrote:To answer several questions. A lot of the equipment seen on trains a few weeks back seems straight from storage, and so does some of the more recent train loads. But they don't have many Bulat and T-72 so I would say they have redeployed them from elsewhere. Only 1 Separate Tank Brigade were equipped with Bulat, and the losses they suffered in 2014 have been made up by a mix of refurbished Bulat, possibly some of the T-64BM1M meant for Congo, and T-72. The T-80 brought into service, and it is still not clear if it was any more than a few companies, were to be deployed with ukrops VDV BTG, not normal tank battalions. Unless what we are seeing is a bluff and all the equipment is unserviceable, it seems odd to me that they would split the 1 Separate Tank Brigade on two fronts. We saw last week at least one of the three battalions at Volnovakha, and now maybe another battalion down at Perekop.  Certainly they are not going to invade Crimea, never, so it must be defensive and, if the equipment is fit for combat, because they expect an attack out of Crimea. If there is an offensive and then counter offensive, and when it goes wrong for Kiev, and VSN are chasing ukrops out of Donbass, Kiev will not know for sure when they will be told to stop, and despite it being extremely unlikely there will an offensive out of Crimea, impossible I would say, Kiev's paranoia will dictate that they need to defend Kherson and prevent any possibility of a VSN/Russian advance that looks like it could go to Odessa. Again, tho I  want that, I know it will not happen in the present political circumstances. I would say that Kiev putting what is for them serious assets at Crimea border is a sign of them thinking that the unthinkable might happen, and that they are very worried. Good..

Precisely the same thing I was thiking Khepesh. Ukrops are reinforcing the border between Kherson and Crimea because they are planning to restart their offensive in Donbass. This equipment we're seeing is there to stop a potential push of Russian forces into Kherson if things go south. And by that I mean if the shit hits the fan really good when their offensive in Donbass fails and Moscow will decide to give them a good blow.

^ Precisely, it is the only military explanation for the build up given the circumstances.

Yurasumy has written about a "Second front" in Ukraine. The situation of conflict with the amber miners in Rovno region has not gone away. Last week there was video of them fighting with police, and they beat the police off. Now elements of "Dnepr-1" have been deployed to Rovno. Yurasumy points out that these miners probably supported Maidan, but after two years of crap...... http://yurasumy.livejournal.com/971078.html And the report on 112 to confirm deployment of elements of "Dnepr-1" http://112.ua/obshchestvo/v-rovenskuyu-obl-dlya-borby-s-nelegalnoy-dobychey-yantarya-pribyli-boycy-dnepra-1-303268.html

Must be a pretty weird feeling for all these volunteer battalions to be deployed in this region considering it's mostly the Western regions that support the ATO and Maidan.

http://www.novorosinform.org/articles/id/5021
Сербский срок за Русский мир. Как и за что преследуют сербов, воевавших в Новороссии

@Neutrality. I think this is why Yurasumy writes about the situation. Essentially it is not very interesting about illegal amber mining, but where he is saying that Transcarpathia is a "known known", and that there are problems there is not as significant as "rebellion" in ukrops heartlands. If support for Kiev falls in a place like Rovno, then that is potentially a big deal. I wonder that any in SBU who know history will remember that when revolutions occur, ususally the first casualties are the "secret police" and other organs of repression and surveillance.

arpakola wrote:http://www.novorosinform.org/articles/id/5021
Сербский срок за Русский мир. Как и за что преследуют сербов, воевавших в Новороссии

Then perhaps he might be hoping that the rumors of impending revolution if Serbia are true. Perhaps Papa or Militarov can say if this is total crap and dreams, or if there is an underlying discontent in the population, or at least those who think about these affairs.

Khepesh wrote:

arpakola wrote:http://www.novorosinform.org/articles/id/5021
Сербский срок за Русский мир. Как и за что преследуют сербов, воевавших в Новороссии

Then perhaps he might be hoping that the rumors of impending revolution if Serbia are true. Perhaps Papa or Militarov can say if this is total crap and dreams, or if there is an underlying discontent in the population, or at least those who think about these affairs.

What he said for those who don't speak Russian, via Yandex. Not sure it makes sense

"The Serbian term for the Russian world. Like what persecuted Serbs who fought in the new Russia"

Khepesh wrote:

arpakola wrote:http://www.novorosinform.org/articles/id/5021
Сербский срок за Русский мир. Как и за что преследуют сербов, воевавших в Новороссии

Then perhaps he might be hoping that the rumors of impending revolution if Serbia are true. Perhaps Papa or Militarov can say if this is total crap and dreams, or if there is an underlying discontent in the population, or at least those who think about these affairs.

I can't really make out much trough machine translation but I can tell you that this guy was detained, questioned and then released. That is all.
Even if they somehow prove that he fought abroad they still can't (and most likely do not want to) do anything. Taking pics with guns does not prove anything otherwise Graham would be in a pickle...

Only way to be actually convicted for fighting abroad is if you worked for ISIS or AQ.

As for public opinion regarding Ukraine everyone here agrees that Ukrainians are idiots (and as of recently officially Nazis). General consensus can be summed up as "Go Russia!!!" but that was always the case so nothing new there.

Politicians naturally kiss EU ass for money but that is also nothing new. NATO membership is firmly in "HELL NO!!!" zone and it will stay that way. I know that because I work in school and can vouch personally that new kids are even more hard core patriots than their parents ever hoped to be themselves and they all get to vote come 18th birthday. This goes both for Serbian kids and kids of other ethnicities and religions. Everyone got bombed the same back in 99.  

If you guys want to know additional details just ask.

Khepesh wrote:

arpakola wrote:http://www.novorosinform.org/articles/id/5021
Сербский срок за Русский мир. Как и за что преследуют сербов, воевавших в Новороссии

Then perhaps he might be hoping that the rumors of impending revolution if Serbia are true. Perhaps Papa or Militarov can say if this is total crap and dreams, or if there is an underlying discontent in the population, or at least those who think about these affairs.

Issue that i have with this Počuča guy is that friend of mine that was in Donbass, claims this guy is a clown and coward. By his claims Počuča actually never participated in any combat operations unlike other far less famous Serbian volonteurs, but he would visit frontline, take pics and then go back to either safe parts of Novorossia or back to Moscow, and then post about his heroism on Facebook and sell materials to other journalists (yes, he is actually an journalist by pofession). He was apparently even arrested by Novorossians coz he was in fight with that other Serb Deki the sniper and planned on killing him over that.....

When its about revolution in Serbia, dont hold your breath. Serbs are type of people that stopped doing anything for themself long ago. My uneducated local politician employed son and his wife in city Headquarters, they have only highschool and they still work on highly demanding jobs in term of education. That is image of Serbia, whole Serbia, people are scared if someone is important, rich...politician... they prefer to obey and hope they will get a job or money in return. No revolution in poor countries anymore, there is alot higher chance of revolution on Island than here.

Agreed, no revolutions here. Ever again.

EU gained influence by setting up media and paying bribes to politicians. If Russia wants influence they need to do the same. Instead they just complain and whine.

They could at least start RT in Serbian. That alone would do wonders. But bribes 4 politicians would still be necessary of course. This is real world we are talking about here...

So, no revolution in Serbia, but I didn't think so, but maybe when EU collapses and there are revolutions all over Europe......

The title of that article says. "Serbian to do [jail] term for [helping] Russian world. How and why Serbs who fought in Novorossiya are persecuted"

PapaDragon wrote:
Agreed, no revolutions here. Ever again.

EU gained influence by setting up media and paying bribes to politicians. If Russia wants influence they need to do the same. Instead they just complain and whine.

They could at least start RT in Serbian. That alone would do wonders. But bribes 4 politicians would still be necessary of course. This is real world we are talking about here...

http://www.rt.rs its in plan for a year now

Khepesh wrote:So, no revolution in Serbia, but I didn't think so, but maybe when EU collapses and there are revolutions all over Europe......

The title of that article says. "Serbian to do [jail] term for [helping] Russian world. How and why Serbs who fought in Novorossiya are persecuted"

Yeah, currently ruling party will keep doing so for at least another 4 years after elections as they have over 50% support plus one major coalition partner with over 10%. So nothing will change in Serbia in terms of politics for loooong time.

When its about Serbs who fought in Novorossia they said 2 years ago that they will get arrested upon return and that trials will be held. As its illegal for Serbian citizens to fight in abroad conflict or to offer themself as mercenaries on "free market". However its completely legal to join certain British security company that takes our guys for protection and security details in Iraq, Afghanistan, Angola... Mali...

So apparently Ukrainian UAV was shot down in DNR

Radomir is a dick, but to say he never joined a front fight is a lie. Otherwise there is not much to say about this fool. It harms the thing more than it would help. He was quite rightly removed from the troop. Except in Cossack associations there are anyway no organized large volunteer groups from serbia. No great show, just do that for what you are there.

ukrops are making a commotion because they say that Colonel-General Alexander Lentsov is to be in PMR from 10 to 15 April. Lentsov is long accused by ukrops of being the real commander of all VSN. ukrops point out that this arrival date of 10 April is significant as it is the anniversary of liberation of Odessa during GPW, and they try to say that some large scale provocations may occur in Odessa. A visit by general Lentsov to PMR is denied, and it is asked why ukrops are fabricating this story, unless as smokescreen to use as excuse for any provocations they might be preparing in Odessa. Lentsov was leader of the control and co-ordination mission from September 2014 to monitor the ceasefire.

Also said that the S-300 batteries that were deployed on the eastern side of Odessa have been moved east of Kherson towards Crimea. This is said by ex Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexei Shuravko. Previously it was only vague rumors, but now it seems more solid evidence of re-deployment.

Khepesh, is there are any evidence they are deploying military units to Crimea border? Not just trains with material, but proper units with infantry, headquarters and logistical tail.

I still think it is a sleight of hand and those tanks and artillery are bound for Volnovakha.

From militia reports it seems as of last night and today the VSN are trying to take back PROMKO, the industrial zone at Avdeyevka.

Also, the capture of prisoners , two officers, seems to confirm indeed an Ukrainian offensive is planned. The increase in the fighting over the past week and the buildup confirm this.