Syrian Civil War: News #6

ultron wrote:If the job is not finished in Syria, the day Russia is invaded would not be far. What would Putin do? Negotiate a ceasefire when a multi national alliance is at the doorstep of Moscow? I don't think a ceasefire would work out at that point

I don't like to throw shade at people, but you're one of the most maladjusted individual that I've ever come across. Russia will not be invaded, ever - unless aliens are anti-Russian.

ultron wrote:

This is not up to Russia. Syria is a UN member. Even if Russia will not provide military aid, Iran will. Iran has 80 million people and they are hardcore Shia who are not afraid to fall in battle. Even if Russia stops aid to Syria, the war in Syria will not end because you cannot negotiate with jihadists. There are no moderate rebels in Syria. All of them are Qaeda types.

But thats is not what Russia now says.. Russia use the moderate bullshit like Obama.
Russia saw for 4 years Turkey aiding Alqaeda and ISIS and NATO smulging tons of weapons there and they did nothing to stop it. and only enter in the conflict when Syria was close to collapse.
how "good diplomacy" is that?  At very least they should have sent 20,000 strong mercenaries to allow Syria hold IDLIB and Latakia ,so later dont need to recapture it.

Russia allowed the coup in Kiev to happen.. "good diplomacy" maybe.. but their foreign policy sucks big time. Russia should have helped Yakunovych to hold power and did nothing. If Russia agree with NATO and Turkey conditions that northern Syria buffer zone ,then Who is going to take seriously Russia after that?

Who will want to be ally with Russia if in the time of crisis they negotiate with their enemies to give them what they want ?  Russia foreign policy sucks donkey balls. is terrible. Is only good in
freezing conflicts and nothing else. Is a passive foreign policy. they wait things to get really bad ,to start trying to "solve it". It was a real mistake of Russia to ever making an alliance with anyone in middle east . because Americans and Israel is there and it give the false illusion that Russia will stand with them to the end ,in case of war and thats not the case.

It will have been much better if Syria was just another jordan..a puppet state of Israel and
Russia not have to defend them. But Russia goes an encourage them to be "patriotic" and
to fight for their independence and later they are left alone when in need.

How dissappointed Syrians will be to know Russia is negotiating with Syrian enemies the annexation of their northern part.  what kind of message Russia is sending to every other
nation in the world that wanted to consider Russia as their strategic ally? that they will be better
off ,to keep distance of Russia and avoid any kind of retaliation from the west.and what kind of message Russia is sending Europe who wants to be free? that Russia will not help them to the end in times of war.

Russia need to either be like China ,100% self centered.. or to be 100% fully supportive of any ally . But to give false expectations to Nations it seeks alliance is wrong.  Russia do a major damage to other nations by offering a false picture of the kind of support they will receive from
them. That said.. it was a mistake for Russia to ever making any alliance with anyone in middle east. There will be no wars there and all nations be like Lebanon or Jordan and NATO controlled it. Russia total absence of middle east ,will have allowed those countries to understand they are
alone ,on their own ,and that it cannot be possible for them to oppose the western imperialism.

Putin told that it was going to support Syria ,even if it had to fight terrorist in every street in moscow. and now is changing the tone.. how dare Syrians ,desire to fight Alqaeda and ISIS
in all territories they occupy ? Now Russia telling syria to not fight all terrorist , to not liberate all its territories. because the are making a "peace deal" that will only benefit them. and not much Syria. Fail policy indeed.

Vann7 wrote:

ultron wrote:

This is not up to Russia. Syria is a UN member. Even if Russia will not provide military aid, Iran will. Iran has 80 million people and they are hardcore Shia who are not afraid to fall in battle. Even if Russia stops aid to Syria, the war in Syria will not end because you cannot negotiate with jihadists. There are no moderate rebels in Syria. All of them are Qaeda types.

But thats is not what Russia now says.. Russia use the moderate bullshit like Obama.
Russia saw for 4 years Turkey aiding Alqaeda and ISIS and NATO smulging tons of weapons there and they did nothing to stop it. and only enter in the conflict when Syria was close to collapse.
how "good diplomacy" is that?  At very least they should have sent 20,000 strong mercenaries to allow Syria hold IDLIB and Latakia ,so later dont need to recapture it.

Russia allowed the coup in Kiev to happen.. "good diplomacy" maybe.. but their foreign policy sucks big time. Russia should have helped Yakunovych to hold power and did nothing. If Russia agree with NATO and Turkey conditions that northern Syria buffer zone ,then Who is going to take seriously Russia after that?

Who will want to be ally with Russia if in the time of crisis they negotiate with their enemies to give them what they want ?  Russia foreign policy sucks donkey balls. is terrible. Is only good in
freezing conflicts and nothing else. Is a passive foreign policy. they wait things to get really bad ,to start trying to "solve it". It was a real mistake of Russia to ever making an alliance with anyone in middle east . because Americans and Israel is there and it give the false illusion that Russia will stand with them to the end ,in case of war and thats not the case.

It will have been much better if Syria was just another jordan..a puppet state of Israel and
Russia not have to defend them. But Russia goes an encourage them to be "patriotic" and
to fight for their independence and later they are left alone when in need.

How dissappointed Syrians will be to know Russia is negotiating with Syrian enemies the annexation of their northern part.  what kind of message Russia is sending to every other
nation in the world that wanted to consider Russia as their strategic ally? that they will be better
off ,to keep distance of Russia and avoid any kind of retaliation from the west.and what kind of message Russia is sending Europe who wants to be free? that Russia will not help them to the end in times of war.

Russia need to either be like China ,100% self centered.. or to be 100% fully supportive of any ally . But to give false expectations to Nations it seeks alliance is wrong.  Russia do a major damage to other nations by offering a false picture of the kind of support they will receive from
them. That said.. it was a mistake for Russia to ever making any alliance with anyone in middle east. There will be no wars there and all nations be like Lebanon or Jordan and NATO controlled it. Russia total absence of middle east ,will have allowed those countries to understand they are
alone ,on their own ,and that it cannot be possible for them to oppose the western imperialism.

Freezing conflict won't work in Syria. Jihadists are those never surrender types. They never negotiate with anyone. The war in Syria cannot end even if Russia wants it to end.

ultron wrote:

Vann7 wrote:

ultron wrote:

This is not up to Russia. Syria is a UN member. Even if Russia will not provide military aid, Iran will. Iran has 80 million people and they are hardcore Shia who are not afraid to fall in battle. Even if Russia stops aid to Syria, the war in Syria will not end because you cannot negotiate with jihadists. There are no moderate rebels in Syria. All of them are Qaeda types.

But thats is not what Russia now says.. Russia use the moderate bullshit like Obama.
Russia saw for 4 years Turkey aiding Alqaeda and ISIS and NATO smulging tons of weapons there and they did nothing to stop it. and only enter in the conflict when Syria was close to collapse.
how "good diplomacy" is that?  At very least they should have sent 20,000 strong mercenaries to allow Syria hold IDLIB and Latakia ,so later dont need to recapture it.

Russia allowed the coup in Kiev to happen.. "good diplomacy" maybe.. but their foreign policy sucks big time. Russia should have helped Yakunovych to hold power and did nothing. If Russia agree with NATO and Turkey conditions that northern Syria buffer zone ,then Who is going to take seriously Russia after that?

Who will want to be ally with Russia if in the time of crisis they negotiate with their enemies to give them what they want ?  Russia foreign policy sucks donkey balls. is terrible. Is only good in
freezing conflicts and nothing else. Is a passive foreign policy. they wait things to get really bad ,to start trying to "solve it". It was a real mistake of Russia to ever making an alliance with anyone in middle east . because Americans and Israel is there and it give the false illusion that Russia will stand with them to the end ,in case of war and thats not the case.

It will have been much better if Syria was just another jordan..a puppet state of Israel and
Russia not have to defend them. But Russia goes an encourage them to be "patriotic" and
to fight for their independence and later they are left alone when in need.

How dissappointed Syrians will be to know Russia is negotiating with Syrian enemies the annexation of their northern part.  what kind of message Russia is sending to every other
nation in the world that wanted to consider Russia as their strategic ally? that they will be better
off ,to keep distance of Russia and avoid any kind of retaliation from the west.and what kind of message Russia is sending Europe who wants to be free? that Russia will not help them to the end in times of war.

Russia need to either be like China ,100% self centered.. or to be 100% fully supportive of any ally . But to give false expectations to Nations it seeks alliance is wrong.  Russia do a major damage to other nations by offering a false picture of the kind of support they will receive from
them. That said.. it was a mistake for Russia to ever making any alliance with anyone in middle east. There will be no wars there and all nations be like Lebanon or Jordan and NATO controlled it. Russia total absence of middle east ,will have allowed those countries to understand they are
alone ,on their own ,and that it cannot be possible for them to oppose the western imperialism.

Freezing conflict won't work in Syria. Jihadists are those never surrender types. They never negotiate with anyone. The war in Syria cannot end even if Russia wants it to end.

EXACTLY!!!
The war in Syria will NOT end until all terrorist defeated all of them. Allowing NATO to control
northern Syria is basically a defeat . it will give terrorist a sense of a small victory ,and a small caliphate created in northern Syria for Alqaeda and Isis in northern Aleppo. and Raqqa possibly too. Russia is trying to negotiate land for peace and thats not going to work. Unless they have plans to continue fighting by stealth , i don't think the solution will be ever political in Syria.
but military one.

it will have been far better if Russia did not ever made any alliance with anyone in middle east
that way ,Syrians will understand will be alone and cannot oppose to western policies. Better for Syria to be another just another puppet state and friends with the evil Israel and manage to get Americans maintain Syria as fully secular nation and even have no friendship with IRAN or Russia ,than to be in civil wars for decades and with Americans arming terrorist.

Said in other way , if Russia have no plans to confront Americans to the end in defense of any nation ,they should better stay away from any US interest .Because otherwise it will incite small nations to defend their nation sovereignty when they do not have the capabilities to do it on
their own.

ultron wrote:

Vann7 wrote:

ultron wrote:Russia warns Assad not to take back the whole country.  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-syria-envoy-idUSKCN0VR240

This is exactly what i told..  

So much Blood in Syria and Russia pretty much is saying will not finish the job and will freeze
the country. Officially Russia is pushing for allowing most northern Syria to be occupied by Turkey and NATO ,and negotiate and independence for the kurds.

So make no mistake ,the zones not liberated this year or until this summer will be annexed
officially by Turkey or Americans away from Syria.. and with Russia complicity.

Russia only interest is the war to stop and not that Syria recover all its territory.
Churkin even went as far as to remember Assad ,that the advances they had were thanks to
them , in other words and indirect way that if Assad do not obey Russia they will stop helping them.

So effectively Russia agree with Merkel proposed Safe zone ,what Turkey was demanding from NATO. Just that only in land and not in air.  

Russia is expert in winning wars in combat ,but later losing them with diplomacy.
They got NOTHING for reparations of Germany attack in world war 2 , a piece of land in kaliningrad that is land locked and very difficult to defend. While Americans got permanently bases in All germany almost without fighting for it.  and look at the cuban missile crisis?
It made a deal ,that only allowed Russia to avoid confrontation with US ,but that killed Cuba
with an Embargo of 50 years. It lost Crimea in a terrible deal with Ukraine after it declared its independence,and lost a lot of its business and warships. The only exception was Donetsk and lugansk..that got a really good deal. but overall , Russia is expert in unfinished wars ,unfinished business that they do with the intention to stop wars and the only thing they get is a temporary
end of the fighting.  At any time Those unfinished conflicts that Russia do not fully solve ,will push Russia into fighting again later over the same conflict.  

Look at Moldova ,trasnistria issue ,americans can restart the war at  any time. Look at the Georgia ,abkhazia issue.  Solving problems only using your interest in mind and not of the nation affected will not create ever peace. It seems Russia hopes ,that by giving most of northern Syria to NATO peace will return to Syria to the nation it was.. how wrong they war.
Look the palestinian conflict and is exactly the kind of scenarior we will see in Northern Syria.
With Turkey allowed to invade it and control it ,officially allowing to annex that part of land.

This is not up to Russia. Syria is a UN member. Even if Russia will not provide military aid, Iran will. Iran has 80 million people and they are hardcore Shia who are not afraid to fall in battle. Even if Russia stops aid to Syria, the war in Syria will not end because you cannot negotiate with jihadists. There are no moderate rebels in Syria. All of them are Qaeda types.

I personally think that Idilib and southern Aleppo will be under Assad rule while the Kurds will have northern Aleppo, the whole of al-Hasakah Governorate and most of Ar Raqqah Governorate, Assad will go as far north as Al Bab then across the the Euphrates river, and then the river will be used as a border for a semi autonomous Kurdish state and will stretch right down to the Iraqi border and Al Bukamal border point will either be shared or have two separate points  within metres of each other, or the other option is the border point will be control by Assad but once over if you want to go to Kurdish state they will have their own check point, either way i think a Kurdish semi autonomous state will be formed much to Turkeys hate. I dont think however that the Kurds will have their own country as everyone knows Turkey won't allow it and will no doubt try to invade and will outright refuse the accent the new country. The Kurds need Assad/Syria as much as they need the Kurds right now. Assad cant win this war without them and in return the Kurds will want their semi state and i dont blame them. But the Kurds need Assad/Syria as well as Russia for when all this mess(war) is over Syria. The UN and will breathe a sigh of relief and will no doubt do anything to stop another conflict. So if Syria/Assad was to give the Kurds what they have always wanted (or close to as) a semi autonomous state then this new state would still officially be part of Syria a bit like Scotland in the UK or Gorno-Badakhshan in Tajikistan, so therefore Turkey couldn't officially complain to anyone as Syria as a whole is still one country, and any attacks on it the Syrian government would be perfectly within its rights to complain to the UN, and despite the UN being pretty weak in all this to date, i think once the war is over they could easily threaten Turkey with a UN peace keeping force on its border if it continues to attack the new state. And you would also find many countries would ask Turkey to respect Syria's sovereignty especially once the country has got back to peace and start to rebuild itself.

And another spin off from this, this would make Assad out to be someone who was open to reason showing that by giving the Kurds their own semi state that he was somehow reasonable and not all that bad like western media has portrayed, even though he didnt really have much choice in the matter as the last thing Assad wants is a war with the Kurds. Its a win win situation for Russia, Syria, Iran and the Kurds, and lets face it this is the best chance the Kurds have at having their own country despite  it infact being a semi state still under Syria, and who knows the Kurds will be thinking to themselves that a few decades down the road that they may have a case for independence, but for right now they would be more than happy with a semi autonomous state. And as for Assad he gets to keep most of the country and have access/borders with Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel.

I might be wrong in all of this but this is my own personal view on how it will all pan out.

Vann7 wrote:

ultron wrote:

Vann7 wrote:

ultron wrote:

This is not up to Russia. Syria is a UN member. Even if Russia will not provide military aid, Iran will. Iran has 80 million people and they are hardcore Shia who are not afraid to fall in battle. Even if Russia stops aid to Syria, the war in Syria will not end because you cannot negotiate with jihadists. There are no moderate rebels in Syria. All of them are Qaeda types.

But thats is not what Russia now says.. Russia use the moderate bullshit like Obama.
Russia saw for 4 years Turkey aiding Alqaeda and ISIS and NATO smulging tons of weapons there and they did nothing to stop it. and only enter in the conflict when Syria was close to collapse.
how "good diplomacy" is that?  At very least they should have sent 20,000 strong mercenaries to allow Syria hold IDLIB and Latakia ,so later dont need to recapture it.

Russia allowed the coup in Kiev to happen.. "good diplomacy" maybe.. but their foreign policy sucks big time. Russia should have helped Yakunovych to hold power and did nothing. If Russia agree with NATO and Turkey conditions that northern Syria buffer zone ,then Who is going to take seriously Russia after that?

Who will want to be ally with Russia if in the time of crisis they negotiate with their enemies to give them what they want ?  Russia foreign policy sucks donkey balls. is terrible. Is only good in
freezing conflicts and nothing else. Is a passive foreign policy. they wait things to get really bad ,to start trying to "solve it". It was a real mistake of Russia to ever making an alliance with anyone in middle east . because Americans and Israel is there and it give the false illusion that Russia will stand with them to the end ,in case of war and thats not the case.

It will have been much better if Syria was just another jordan..a puppet state of Israel and
Russia not have to defend them. But Russia goes an encourage them to be "patriotic" and
to fight for their independence and later they are left alone when in need.

How dissappointed Syrians will be to know Russia is negotiating with Syrian enemies the annexation of their northern part.  what kind of message Russia is sending to every other
nation in the world that wanted to consider Russia as their strategic ally? that they will be better
off ,to keep distance of Russia and avoid any kind of retaliation from the west.and what kind of message Russia is sending Europe who wants to be free? that Russia will not help them to the end in times of war.

Russia need to either be like China ,100% self centered.. or to be 100% fully supportive of any ally . But to give false expectations to Nations it seeks alliance is wrong.  Russia do a major damage to other nations by offering a false picture of the kind of support they will receive from
them. That said.. it was a mistake for Russia to ever making any alliance with anyone in middle east. There will be no wars there and all nations be like Lebanon or Jordan and NATO controlled it. Russia total absence of middle east ,will have allowed those countries to understand they are
alone ,on their own ,and that it cannot be possible for them to oppose the western imperialism.

Freezing conflict won't work in Syria. Jihadists are those never surrender types. They never negotiate with anyone. The war in Syria cannot end even if Russia wants it to end.

EXACTLY!!!
The war in Syria will NOT end until all terrorist defeated all of them. Allowing NATO to control
northern Syria is basically a defeat . it will give terrorist a sense of a small victory ,and a small caliphate created in northern Syria for Alqaeda and Isis in northern Aleppo. and Raqqa possibly too. Russia is trying to negotiate land for peace and thats not going to work. Unless they have plans to continue fighting by stealth , i don't think the solution will be ever political in Syria.
but military one.

it will have been far better if Russia did not ever made any alliance with anyone in middle east
that way ,Syrians will understand will be alone and cannot oppose to western policies. Better for Syria to be another just another puppet state and friends with the evil Israel and manage to get Americans maintain Syria as fully secular nation and even have no friendship with IRAN or Russia ,than to be in civil wars for decades and with Americans arming terrorist.

Said in other way , if Russia have no plans to confront Americans to the end in defense of any nation ,they should better stay away from any US interest .Because otherwise it will incite small nations to defend their nation sovereignty when they do not have the capabilities to do it on
their own.

i can understand where you are coming from but this is also a show by Russia that the USA can't and it that it won't let it go around the world forcing its will on a country anymore, because if Syria fell to USA terror puppets and Russia did nothing Iran would be next and then ask yourself where next would be on the hit list, Russia has decided to take a stand especially after what happened in Libya. When Libya fell Russia lost an ally as well as trade.

I see that a lot of folks here a determined to render ignore function redundant by constantly quoting verified trolls...

PapaDragon wrote:
I see that a lot of folks here a determined to render ignore function redundant by constantly quoting verified trolls...

Yeah, I won't be doing that anymore. I will no longer respond to ultron.

d_taddei2 wrote:
i can understand where you are coming from but this is also a show by Russia that the USA can't and it that it won't let it go around the world forcing its will on a country anymore, because if Syria fell to USA terror puppets and Russia did nothing Iran would be next and then ask yourself where next would be on the hit list, Russia has decided to take a stand especially after what happened in Libya. When Libya fell Russia lost an ally as well as trade.

But what happened to Lybia was consequence of Qadaffi not being aligned with US imperialism.
Had Lybia was like Saudi Arabia or Qatar , or even like morroco , fully welcoming being a puppet
state of the west.. the Qadaffi will have never been overthrow.
The whole Arab Spring.. its goal ,was to remove any Power from north Africa or middle east
not 100% loyal to US interest. and that was cooperative with Russia.  So nations are being attacked for creating close relations with Russia. And Russia give those nations a false hope
that they will be 100% backed in case of war.

the cease of fire that Russia is trying to get , will be only for one side.. the Russian side.
because Alqaeda and iSIS will only reinforce their positions and be rearmed.and receive more reinforcements. Turkey,Saudi with the fully blessings of Obama will not stop until at least they totally reverse all the gains of Russia since they enter in the conflict. Means that they will NOT
allow Russia to do what it wants ,to have ever peace. So i do not see ever the conflict to end
by political means.. and only a military victory will do it.

Turkish shells landing near Azaz

Somewhere in Latakia

Great article:

''Syrian soldiers on the Latakia Front finally taste the fruits of victory – but they know Isis is not dead''

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-civil-war-isis-syrian-army-russia-turkey-al-rabiaa-assad-a6882281.html



Bring back the Spitfires:

''Britain's 'unique' Brimstone missiles still haven't killed any Isis fighters in Syria''

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britains-unique-brimstone-missiles-still-havent-killed-any-isis-fighters-in-syria-a6881716.html

Militarov wrote:

Somewhere in Latakia

Kingdom of humanity in Hell

Brimstom missiles that can hit armored vehicles in motion are not for ISIS but against Assad.
British will like to see him killed and so the US alliance.  

A new video shows up ,claims to be a night Ambush in hama to the moderate western sponsored terrorist .. killed in their own trenches.. really nice one.  



Also connected to Syria..
Erdogan have gone even more crazy, is seeking to be an Emperor now with absolute powers ,and create a "new Turkey"..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-17/turkey-faces-turmoil-as-erdogan-seeks-more-presidential-powers

Probably to cover his ass if the whole anti Syrian campaign fails . And apparently there is resistance. This is only signs of Turkey preparing for a world war and showing commitment to
increase the hostilities against Syria and so Russia. which will be a major war.

The natural reaction to this ,by Russia should be of denying any kind of world war and claiming
that only UN and international laws will be followed in Syria. In other words , denying Erdogan the use of Fear of their nation being attacked ,to get the full imperial powers he ask. Violence and terror just like 9/11 shown ,can be really useful tools to get citizens give unlimited powers
their leaders ,in the name of security.. So expect more false flags in Turkey and all blamed on "Syrian Kurds."

So I leave for à short trip and everything goes to hell in this thread? Assad is going to get a slap in the wrist for stating out the obvious. Stop telling every one what the damn plan is!

Russia plays the same game it did in Chechnya. Destroy as much as possible, step by step.

PapaDragon wrote:
I see that a lot of folks here a determined to render ignore function redundant by constantly quoting verified trolls...

What we've got here is about four trolls talking to each other. My ignore button works good and anything quoting something from the ignore button gets nothing but a quick glance of recognition and then it's move on time.

Hey, rebel use school for recruitment. If Russia strike, all bla bla bla, Putin destroyed school

Turkey crossed the border and invaded Syria

https://www.rt.com/news/332924-turkish-vehicles-cross-syria/

Saudi Arabia sends surface to air missiles to jihadists. Good thing Russia has President S

https://twitter.com/Paradoxy13/status/700684572007264256

ultron wrote:Russia warns Assad not to take back the whole country.  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-syria-envoy-idUSKCN0VR240

No. Russia wants Assad to follow Russian lead in regaining his country.

ultron wrote:Saudi Arabia sends surface to air missiles to jihadists. Good thing Russia has President S

https://twitter.com/Paradoxy13/status/700684572007264256

Russia should just use cruise missiles to strike down Saudi rafineries as a response and everything will get back in normal.

Viktor wrote:

ultron wrote:Russia warns Assad not to take back the whole country.  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-syria-envoy-idUSKCN0VR240

No. Russia wants Assad to follow Russian lead in regaining his country.

Honestly this all just feels like bad wording by Mr.Churkin, now being used to create confusion in Syria-Russia relations.

AlfaT8 wrote:

Viktor wrote:

ultron wrote:Russia warns Assad not to take back the whole country.  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-syria-envoy-idUSKCN0VR240

No. Russia wants Assad to follow Russian lead in regaining his country.

Honestly this all just feels like bad wording by Mr.Churkin, now being used to create confusion in Syria-Russia relations.

And like everything before, it will not matter one bit in practice regardless of media white noise.

SAA will take back entire Syrian territory and Kurds will rejoin the country with autonomy they requested and well earned but that does not mean that Assad can go around advertising the game plan to everyone.

Did Zhukov mail Kursk plans to Guderrian back in WW2?


Also:

Jamie Dettmer – ‏@jamiewrit

Western diplomat says NATO has warned Turkey of "no support" if it launches ground attack in Syria #VOAalert

https://mobile.twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/700715227952713728

Suck it like a good Doggie.

NATO Concerned over Possible Russia-Turkey Hostilities

In an effort to prevent further escalation, NATO has made it exceedingly clear to the Turkish government that it cannot count on alliance support should the conflict with Russia head up as a result of a Turkish attack. "NATO cannot allow itself to be pulled into a military escalation with Russia as a result of the recent tensions between Russia and Turkey," says Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn.

Should Turkey be responsible for escalation, say officials in both Berlin and Brussels, Ankara would not be able to invoke the NATO treaty. Article 4 of the alliance's founding treaty grants member states the right to demand consultations "whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." Turkey has already invoked this article once in the Syrian conflict. The result was the stationing of German Patriot missiles on the Syrian border in eastern Turkey.

NATO Gets Nervous

The decisive article, however, is Article 5, which guarantees that an "armed attack against one or more of (the alliance members) in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all." But Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Asselborn notes that "the guarantee is only valid when a member state is clearly attacked."

Ankara was already rebuked following the shooting down of the Russian warplane, with NATO diplomats speaking of a Turkish overreaction. "We have to avoid that situations, incidents, accidents spiral out of control," warned NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg.

Berlin agrees. "We are not going to pay the price for a war started by the Turks," says a German diplomat. Because decisions taken by the North Atlantic Council, NATO's primary decision-making body, must always be unanimous, it is enough for a single country to exercise its veto rights, the official says. But, the official adds, it won't get that far: there is widespread agreement with the US and most other allies that Turkey would get the cold shoulder in such a case.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-worried-about-possible-turkey-russia-hostilities-a-1078349.html