The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

JohninMK wrote:Shot in foot evidence

KIEV, February 3. /TASS/. Ukraine’s losses on export due to Russia’s restrictions will top $1.1. bln in 2016, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valeria Gontareva said on Wednesday. "According to our estimates, restrictions on export to the Russian Federation and restriction on transit of locally-made goods via the territory of the Russian Federation may reduce our export revenues by $1.1 bln this year," she said. According to Gontareva, Ukraine will lose a total of $2.5 bln "due to the plunge of global prices."

More:
http://tass.ru/en/economy/854273

Banderastani exports are down by 31%. that is much more than $1.1 billion. So this is a side show story.

30,000 casualties in 3 months, really? What is going on?

Assuming the Novorussian estimates are correct and not made up, and so far they have been confirmed, how there can be so many casualties in the past three months of "truce" when there are no major battles going on?

I think two possible explanations

1) In addition to the "position war" there is a "partisan war", instead of fighting to take ground, patrols cross the line and strike into the ukranian rearguard and second line of defense. So everything is quiet in the front, keeping the fiction of a "truce" but war goes on.


2) Several times there have been reports of Ukranian troops concentrations we have interpreted as preparations for a major offensive, but the expected attack never happened, leaving us perplexed. I am wondering if yes, those attacks did indeed took place, but the defense is so solid that they are aborted after the preliminary probing attacks are repulsed, with the Novorussian defenders unaware that they had actually been attacked, as those attacks are not different from the "business as usual" of position warafare. Each of these failed attacks may easily cost hundreds of wounded and dead in a day.

The attack two days ago on Donetsk and Gorlovka must have been a greater effort than usual because it was noticed by civilians, yet nothing changed.

In addition to these there must be a massive censorship as for different reasons both sides have to pretend there is a "ceasefire".

I would think the last intel report is completely made up, but it does fit with the expected results of my calculations, and there are sometimes bits of information that hint at the true situation. I read an interview with a Spanish volunteer that said there is no truce, war goes on as before, just as with the first truce. Sometimes there is news of a sudden spike in the flow of wounded to Ukranian hospitals in the rearguard, the latest last month, around the time of US vicepresident Bidden visit, and indirect confirmation is that the junta keeps calling up more levvies. Why would they need to call so many troops from older age groups if they aren't suffering casualties? Even if there is troop rotation due to discharging those that have served for over a year it means there must be casualties in the thousands.

Ispan wrote:30,000 casualties in 3 months, really? What is going on?

It's actually 28.000 casualties since the conflict began, not the past 3mths.

At year’s end, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights reported that there were now more than 28,000 casualties in Ukraine since the war began, including more than 9,000 killed.

http://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/as-war-in-east-continues-ukraine-moves-westward/

Erk wrote:

Ispan wrote:30,000 casualties in 3 months, really? What is going on?

It's actually 28.000 casualties since the conflict began, not the past 3mths.

At year’s end, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights reported that there were now more than 28,000 casualties in Ukraine since the war began, including more than 9,000 killed.

Obviously you haven't been paying attention. Actual casualties up to Minsk-2 are much, much larger than the UN says. Those 9,000 killed are just civilians, and just what the Novorussians have reported on Lugansk and Donetsk. No word about Slavyansk and the rest of the occupied zone.

Known Ukranian military losses are confirmed as 10,000 killed:

3,200 confirmed identified dead, 1,500 out of 2,000 missing presumed dead as the Novorussians only accounted for 500, and 7,500 unknown soldiers buried.

More details here

http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=150775


EDIT: After writing to Khepesh I have realized there is another way of looking at it.



Something is clearly wrong. Ukranian side can't have suffered another 30,000 casualties in 3 months since there is only low level intensity war going on, though there are occasional attacks that go unreported.

There is another way of looking at it. The report that came out in November was provisional. Presumably more info has been obtained that has revised previous estimates upwards until 45,000 killed, most of them during the major battles of 2014 and the Debaltsevo pocket. That means the Novorussians estimates of Ukranian losses back then were far below actual inflicted ones.

Still, if the intensity of the fighting is similar to the first truce, that means 100 daily casualties (about 20-30 dead and double that wounded) , after three months, that is another 10,000 casualties. that's the nightmare of positional warfare, the constant attrition in the long run is fatal.

It would be sustainable but the huge losses soaked up all the replacements from the first drafts and after Debaltsevo they can't get hold of enough recruits as these flee conscription, so the Ukranian forces are getting very few replacements and poorer quality. Most of the new recruirs go to replace the soldiers discharged after one year of service, but if on top of it you add battle casualties, a constant trickle, that explains why Ukranian army didn't get bigger and is not winning the war by attrition. It simply lacks the manpower. And the lost materiel can't be replaced.

Mass Exodus of Western Businesses From Ukraine

Lugansk military exercises

http://defence-blog.com/army/rebels-held-large-scale-military-exercises-in-eastern-ukraine.html

zg18 wrote:Lugansk military exercises

Looks to me like LNR/DPR armed forces have been rather well trained. I liked the Thoma skirts on the BMP's also, they do work. Just think, 20 months ago our compatriots were up there in small groups with a hodge podge of weapons donated by the local Militsya and DAI and counting every cartridge they had.

^^ And this is why all that talk about ukrops taking over Donbass is load of BS.

If they tried again they would be pulverized.

NAF was not sitting on it's ass all this time it seems.

auslander wrote:

zg18 wrote:Lugansk military exercises

Looks to me like LNR/DPR armed forces have been rather well trained. I liked the Thoma skirts on the BMP's also, they do work. Just think, 20 months ago our compatriots were up there in small groups with a hodge podge of weapons donated by the local Militsya and DAI and counting every cartridge they had.

They got you fooled Auslander.
These are not BMPs, they are BTRs with side skirts added.
The Ukrops will think they are Armatas.

So now we know where reports about Armata's in Ukraine come from.

TheArmenian wrote:

auslander wrote:

zg18 wrote:Lugansk military exercises

Looks to me like LNR/DPR armed forces have been rather well trained. I liked the Thoma skirts on the BMP's also, they do work. Just think, 20 months ago our compatriots were up there in small groups with a hodge podge of weapons donated by the local Militsya and DAI and counting every cartridge they had.

They got you fooled Auslander.
These are not BMPs, they are BTRs with side skirts added.
The Ukrops will think they are Armatas.

Are you sure they are BTR? I swear i can see tracks, look at the rear when they pass by.
Anyway, well if i would have seen that video without being told they are Lugansk troops, i would have thought they were from the russian military.

zg18 wrote:





http://defence-blog.com/army/rebels-held-large-scale-military-exercises-in-eastern-ukraine.html

Now they are looking pretty close to what the Polite People looked like. Very impressive for a rebel group.

Might be as the Russian Forces are transitioning to Ratnik gear, the NAF is finding plenty of quality equipment lying around.

All of the attacks in the last days made by ukrops, for instance around Gorlovka and at Kominternovo, are being reported by ukrops media as attacks by VSN. The usual Orwellian/Goebbels nonsense of course. Their "proof" that VSN are attacking is to use still photos of the battalion training exercises taking place at Torez.

On site TSN ATO page various reports can be seen with all this nonsense  http://tsn.ua/ato

In other news, Yarosh declared he will replace Poroshenko as next President of Ukraine http://politrada.com/news/dmitriy-yarosh-zayavil-o-namerenii-idti-v-prezidenty/ No details of how this happens, only it is his intention.

And it is still a little difficult to fully understand Zakharchenko's motives for putting Pavel Gubarev into Yasinovataya. Anti corruption at face value, but still curious.

Ground view of the Video Khepesh posted.



I'm amazed at how the NAF grew from a bunch of SKS wielding rag-tag rebels, into this.

When the orcs attack the situation will closely resemble a monkey having conjugal relations with a football and it will be the orcs who have the laces up their backs. Be prepared, in any fight with NAF Da West will scream that is it Russian Army that wiped the floor with orcs, but then that's what they have screamed all through this mess.

One more

auslander wrote:When the orcs attack the situation will closely resemble a monkey having conjugal relations with a football and it will be the orcs who have the laces up their backs. Be prepared, in any fight with NAF Da West will scream that is it Russian Army that wiped the floor with orcs, but then that's what they have screamed all through this mess.

Russia should deploy its airforce to bomb the Ukr Banderite "Daesh" to Hell.

The western propaganda screamers won't be able to gain any more value out of accusing Russia of invading since
like the little boy who cried wolf, they have been doing it weekly for over a year and half.