China's development as a superpower

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2023/11/16/xi-meets-biden/

US efforts to strangle the Chinese economy are not working. Western ‘experts’ continue their never-ending message that China is close to a debt collapse; China’s property market is imploding; and above all, China’s previous phenomenal growth is now over and the economy since COVID is grinding to a halt and will end up like Japan, stagnating in a sea of debt.

And yes, overall debt in the capitalist sector has rocketed. Now the government will be forced to liquidate many of these developers and/or ‘restructure’ their operations with state money. But this does not mean China is about to have deflationary crash. China’s net debt to GDP ratio (debt burden) is only 12% of the average in the G7 economies. The state holds huge financial assets; so it can easily manage this property slump.

The point is that the Xi leadership no longer trust the Western-educated economists in the People’s Bank to regulate the private sector – the bank is a fortress of neo-classical pro-market economics. CP leaders still stop short of bringing these speculative financial and real estate speculators into public ownership (no doubt some leaders have personal links).

The Chinese economy is not diving into a recession. The IMF has just forecast that China’s real GDP will rise by 5.4% this year – and that’s an upgrade from its previous forecast. The housing market may be struggling, but productive industrial construction is booming. China has already built enough solar panel factories to meet all demand in the world. It has built enough auto factories to make every car sold in China, Europe and the US. By the end of next year, it will have built in just five years as many petrochemical factories that Europe and the rest of Asia have now. And take hi-speed rail and infrastructure projects. Back in the US, Biden makes much of his infrastructure program after decades of decline and neglect in US transportation facilities. But that’s nothing to the rapid expansion of hi-speed rail and other transport projects that now have linked up the vast expanse of China’s regions. Compare this to the state of infrastructure in the San Francisco area as Xi visits.

Ah, but you see, China’s economy is seriously ‘imbalanced’. There is ‘too much’ investment in such projects and not enough handouts to the people to spend on consumer goods like I-phones or services like tourism and restaurants. I have pointed out the nonsense of this view on several occasions. China’s growth has been based on a high rate of productive investment. High investment does not mean low consumption growth – on the contrary, investment leads to more production, more jobs and then more incomes and consumption. China’s supposedly low consumption ratio to GDP compared to the highly successful Western capitalist economies is accompanied by a much faster growth in household spending. Indeed, retail sales rose 7.6% yoy in October – not suggesting an entirely weak consumer. China’s workers may not have any say in what their government does, but nevertheless, their wages are still rising faster than anywhere else in Asia.

And those wage rises are not being eaten away by inflation as has happened in the last few years in the rest of the G20 economies. China’s inflation rate is near zero while inflation, despite recent falls, in the US and Europe is several times higher – indeed US workers have seen prices rise by 17% since COVID.

And if Biden is hoping that the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan will lead to a victory for the pro-independence candidate from the Democrat party, then he could be in for a surprise. It seems that the two anti-independence, pro-China parties, the Kuomintang and People’s Party, are planning to run a single candidate for the presidency and current polls show that such a candidate would win. So that could mean a pro-China president in Taiwan next year.

those wage rises are not being eaten away by inflation as has happened in the last few years in the rest of the G20 economies. China’s inflation rate is near zero while inflation, despite recent falls, in the US and Europe is several times higher – indeed US workers have seen prices rise by 17% since COVID.

China didn't give people handouts during COVID-19 like the US did. They didn't print money like mad either. That's why there's deflation in China right now.

GarryB wrote:
What really annoys me is when I talk to a pro UK or pro US person who lose it when I talk about all the problems and destruction those countries and their lackies have caused and they say, well it would be a whole lot worse if Russia or China was in charge... completely missing the whole point that they don't want to be in charge... they don't want to replace the US as the worlds only super power so they control everything and dictate to everyone what they can or cannot do, mostly they just want to be left alone, but the west wont leave them alone and try to control them and steal from them every chance they get... and they do the same with everyone else, which is why having nobody in charge is actually the best solution... which is what BRICS is all about.

This is normal for the average ignorant sap.  Russia and China never ran colonial plantations.   The west did nothing but sail around the globe and impose colonial rule
with lots of genocide to get its way.   I see these ignorant clowns claim Russia and the USSR had colonies.   They have no clue what a colony is, then.   Colonies are
all about net transfer of wealth to the colonizers and not vice versa.   Every single republic in the USSR was raised up.   This makes the hate and resentment from these
"former colonies" like the Baltics so insane.   China simply had no colonies at all.   Tibet is not a colony and was part of China in the past.   You can see today that
China and Russia do not engage in western style colonialist parasite business models.   Russia is building nuclear power plants in the developing world for sane prices.
China is investing in infrastructure as well.   There is no load-them-up-with-debt racket through financing of local parasitical elites that sell their countries down the river.

Russia was subjected to a brazen colonial oppression campaign by the US and its minions during the 1990s.   Yet these sanctimonious clowns bleat about Russian tyranny.  
Get f*cked and die, vermin.

GarryB wrote:What really annoys me is when I talk to a pro UK or pro US person who lose it when I talk about all the problems and destruction those countries and their lackies have caused and they say, well it would be a whole lot worse if Russia or China was in charge...

Pro-US brainwashed people say: USA is bad but China and Russia is worse.

Pro-US well-trained scholars from a professional economic think tank say: "evil" China is actually providing better, more affordable, more benevolent proposals than "good" USA.

lyle6 wrote:The Chinese have a principle of having no principles. You don't need courage if you don't stand for anything.

So they even copied their principles from the West.

And if Biden is hoping that the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan will lead to a victory for the pro-independence candidate from the Democrat party, then he could be in for a surprise. It seems that the two anti-independence, pro-China parties, the Kuomintang and People’s Party, are planning to run a single candidate for the presidency and current polls show that such a candidate would win. So that could mean a pro-China president in Taiwan next year.

Shame the Georgian and Ukrainian governments weren't that smart, they would be in a much better situation now...

Pro-US well-trained scholars from a professional economic think tank say: "evil" China is actually providing better, more affordable, more benevolent proposals than "good" USA.

The irony of the article you included with that post is the second part highlighted in blue... essentially if they want to remain relevant they should THINK about changing their lending policies to actually help the emerging economies instead of burying them in debt.

In other words it is suggesting the IMF actually do what the IMF was intended to do in the first place officially, which was help third world countries develop infrastructure and grow and develop, because what it was actually for... creating a death spiral of debt for poor countries they will never get out of, leading to them giving money to the west and also handing over their independence to western lenders to use and abuse as they see fit.

The Chinese have a principle of having no principles.

They do have principles and ethics and standards... but they apply them to their own behaviour and don't ram them down everyone elses throats demanding everyone else conform to rules they use as general guidelines for their own behaviour and actions.

China wants to make money, and so does Russia, but not 10,000% interest the west makes.

Mining is just one thing... in the west there is something called ethical coffee, where the idea is you pay a little more for the brand but that company pays the people who own the land in the 3rd world where the coffee is grown a bit more for their coffee beans.

If the west is so damn civilised and ethical how can there be any need for such a thing... shouldn't all coffee be ethical... shouldn't all sugar and tea and gas and coal all be ethical too? Not if it comes from the third world and not if the west buys it.

GarryB wrote:Shame the Georgian and Ukrainian governments weren't that smart, they would be in a much better situation now...

The situation of Tbilisi at the moment is not bad. At least they get rid of the Tie Eater, establish a pragmatic government and achieve peace and stability to focus on economic development.

GarryB wrote:Mining is just one thing... in the west there is something called ethical coffee, where the idea is you pay a little more for the brand but that company pays the people who own the land in the 3rd world where the coffee is grown a bit more for their coffee beans.

If the west is so damn civilised and ethical how can there be any need for such a thing... shouldn't all coffee be ethical... shouldn't all sugar and tea and gas and coal all be ethical too? Not if it comes from the third world and not if the west buys it.

From my point of view, at the end of the day it is the consumer who have to carry the burden, they have to pay a little more so that the Western company can maintain their profit margin, although most of the Western consumers are also belong to the working class and they are increasingly suffering from poverty and malnourishment, especially in UK.

In short the ethical value of the West is that the company have to get rich and they dump the burden to both the African workers and Western workers.

GarryB wrote:
Mining is just one thing... in the west there is something called ethical coffee, where the idea is you pay a little more for the brand but that company pays the people who own the land in the 3rd world where the coffee is grown a bit more for their coffee beans.

If the west is so damn civilised and ethical how can there be any need for such a thing... shouldn't all coffee be ethical... shouldn't all sugar and tea and gas and coal all be ethical too? Not if it comes from the third world and not if the west buys it.

I totally agree, I always find those thing completely BS

It is like admitting that they are the scum of the earth but they gave you the possibility to buy from them.

GarryB wrote:Shame the Georgian and Ukrainian governments weren't that smart, they would be in a much better situation now...

higurashihougi wrote:
The situation of Tbilisi at the moment is not bad. At least they get rid of the Tie Eater, establish a pragmatic government and achieve peace and stability to focus on economic development.

Unfortunately much of the population does not see it that way. It does not help that there is probably a lot of disinformation and propaganda made by the many foreign NGOs that act there.

Furthermore some of the russians that went to Georgia last year behaved worse than the typical American.
Some of them even made fun or publicly insulted Georgia in social Media. I do not know if those people were just stupid or they were paid to do that by someone in order to not allow good relationship between the citizens for Russia and Georgia.

Unfortunately most of Georgians now cannot stand Russia, do not have access to independent media (they could via internet, but don't) and trust the antirussian narrative from the west.

(Again, they complain for all the betrayals from Russia in the past. If I reasoned like that, as Italian I should hate every french, English and American citizen).

By the way, China has a large influence in Georgia (even if is not particularly liked by the population) and is responsible for many construction projects.

higurashihougi wrote:The situation of Tbilisi at the moment is not bad. At least they get rid of the Tie Eater, establish a pragmatic government and achieve peace and stability to focus on economic development.

Their executive government is perfectly ok. It is their foreign passport holding, Paris born, female President that is the problem. Thankfully she has little actual power.

The situation of Tbilisi at the moment is not bad. At least they get rid of the Tie Eater, establish a pragmatic government and achieve peace and stability to focus on economic development.

But they have hooked their trailer to the west which is running downhill towards a big cliff down to the sea... and you can bet the west will try to turn at the last minute but the risk of the trailers dragging them over the cliff anyway means they will be turning and ditching those trailers before those trailers can respond and by then it is often too late to call for help...

From my point of view, at the end of the day it is the consumer who have to carry the burden, they have to pay a little more so that the Western company can maintain their profit margin, although most of the Western consumers are also belong to the working class and they are increasingly suffering from poverty and malnourishment, especially in UK.

But consumer societies can only exist when there is a poor slave labour class making the consumer products. When things were made in the west then western people... western workers had jobs and could afford to live a semi decent life, but now all the work is shipped overseas, no job, but all this advertising for stuff you can't afford... it is torture... imagine being an immigrant from Africa or the middle east going to europe... everyone has nice stuff and all the shops are full of more nice stuff... they all seem to have so much... and they wont let you work till you are a citizen... must be torture...

In short the ethical value of the West is that the company have to get rich and they dump the burden to both the African workers and Western workers.

No. The problem is that western company CEOs and shareholders don't give a shit about their workers or their customers... they want the cheapest most disposable workforce to make their products as cheaply as they can so they maximise their profit... and they try to screw everyone they can.

They shifted production to the third world so they could make cheap stuff even cheaper, but they don't pass the savings on to the customers... they just benefit from a bigger profit margin that goes to bonuses for management and to shareholders... the rich getting richer. The people actually creating the product get the minimum amount the government will let the company pay them... if the government raises the minimum wage the company cuts hours and expects them to do the same job in less time, or they shift production to somewhere that has a much lower minimum wage.

Greedy bastards.

Unfortunately much of the population does not see it that way. It does not help that there is probably a lot of disinformation and propaganda made by the many foreign NGOs that act there.

Yes, just a case of people with money manipulating politicians and media to convince selling out to the west will solve all their problems, or that the evil Russians or evil Chinese will invade and kill you all and steal what you have if you don't have the US to protect you...

When they ignore facts that prove the people pretending to be the good guys are not actually the good guys they defend them and call for the people revealing the truth to be put in jail... the west is bad but what you don't know (ie Russia or China) is way worse because they will be the same but they are not white and they eat babies and rape women...

People are stupid.

Furthermore some of the russians that went to Georgia last year behaved worse than the typical American.
Some of them even made fun or publicly insulted Georgia in social Media. I do not know if those people were just stupid or they were paid to do that by someone in order to not allow good relationship between the citizens for Russia and Georgia.

Sounds like the sort of thing the CIA would pay Navalny type people to do to give them a bad name... like Ukrainians using social media to stir up some antisemitism in Russia.

Unfortunately most of Georgians now cannot stand Russia, do not have access to independent media (they could via internet, but don't) and trust the antirussian narrative from the west.

Yes, mission accomplished for the west, but really it is only the Georgian people themselves that are going to suffer for this... and for a good time into their future... will they wake up from the American dream? It is up to them, but they have to want to. It is much easier to blame all your problems on your huge neighbour.

Ironically if they ever learn the truth I bet they will blame the US and the west for leading them away from Russia... it will never be Georgias fault for being so stupid as to believe their lies.

Everyone is a victim.

By the way, China has a large influence in Georgia (even if is not particularly liked by the population) and is responsible for many construction projects.

China is trying to influence the rest of the world by helping with infrastructure projects to gain favour, but they are not idiots... if they build stuff and get contracts and agreements with that country then they will probably continue to invest in that country and help it grow.

If it builds some roads and bridges and buildings and the locals can't get over the fact that China is the bad guy, well they will stop investing and look to other countries that appreciate them and their investment.

Investing in infrastructure and building a new economy is a great way to make money... the west seems to have forgotten that because their corruption means their ability to make bridges that don't fall down is weak because of the super cheap materials they use and the experts they don't use to save money.

A half arsed bridge only lasts ten years and you get to build it again... it is more profitable to be cheap and greedy, and spend the money other companies spend on quality and materials on bribes to get the jobs. The corrupt companies drive the honest companies out of business.

Their executive government is perfectly ok. It is their foreign passport holding, Paris born, female President that is the problem. Thankfully she has little actual power.

They were smart enough not to throw themselves under the bus again like they did in 2008 when they thought the west would rescue them no matter what happened.

Ironically that was about autonomous regions too.