The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

First, please accept my apologies for my extremely off color post, it has been edited but still, there was no call for such a post.

The situation in Novorossiya is no different tonight than it was yesterday, last night nor the week before. The orcs are steadily increasing their bombardments but that is to be expected. The West doesn't notice and that is to be expected also. None of us are privy to what is being planned in the upper echelons of power and that is to be expected also.

I think that the next two or three weeks will tell the tale and fates will be met. All we can do at this time is wait and watch because none of us are up there nor are we privy to the constant meetings extant in both Mockba and Novorossiya.

Neutrality wrote:Yeah I'm quite certain Flagship, Haushofer and now par far are the one and the same person.

Yep, they always post at the same time too.

BKP wrote: Still, it's extremely frustrating having to watch the side of evil and lies deliberately kill civilians day after day.

This is the problem with the Western-dominated world. Having to witness time and time again how the evil wins while the rest of the world is too cowardly and unorganized to do anything about it.

There was nobody to stop the Western attack against Iraq. Russia and China did nothing.

Russia and China did nothing while the West bombed Serbia.

And now that this evil has reached the Russian border and targets Russian people Russia still does nothing.

I am a Western citizen and a Western dominated world probably is good for my material well being, but a moral side of me finds this very disturbing and distressing. I feel for the non-Western world but I also think that they should finally stand up and defend themselves.

BKP wrote:Since it's a given that Novos will be blamed regardless, I'm wondering why they don't go on the offensive. Maybe they still don't have adequate forces to do so? Offense is risky, but maybe the US government's strategy for the Ukes is to never commit to a major thrust again, and just slowly kill everyone and destroy everything from a relatively safe distance. That sounds like something they'd come up with: dirty, ruthless, cowardly, but possibly effective in the long term.

That and the Kremlin has not greenlighted another counter-offensive against the UAF for some reason.

Karl Haushofer wrote:I can understand why people want to defend Putin since he is the symbol of Russia's resurgence during the last 15 years. Putin is a cult hero to many people. He is even credited of saving Russia from disintegration.

I'm sure that many of those who are publicly defending him are having doubts about him but they are afraid to say it out loud.

For clarification I still don't want Putin to be replaced by a revolution because people who would take power after him would almost certainly be worse than Putin.

It should be acknowledged what he is (Russia's leader) and what he is not (a supporter of Novorossia) and the consequences (Novorossia is expendable and is treated as such).

Karl Haushofer wrote:This is the problem with the Western-dominated world. Having to witness time and time again how the evil wins while the rest of the world is too cowardly and unorganized to do anything about it.

There was nobody to stop the Western attack against Iraq. Russia and China did nothing.

Russia and China did nothing while the West bombed Serbia.

And now that this evil has reached the Russian border and targets Russian people Russia still does nothing.

I am a Western citizen and a Western dominated world probably is good for my material well being, but a moral side of me finds this very disturbing and distressing. I feel for the non-Western world but I also think that they should finally stand up and defend themselves.

Finland is not even a western country. Finnish is not even Indo European.

The west wants chaos, war, killing in eastern Europe, in the Middle East, in north Africa.

BKP wrote:I don't think there's been a single day in which Ukes haven't been in violation of Minsk 2. We know the Western MSM ignore or misrepresent this and fully expected them to do so. And, of course, they will howl with outrage if NAF go on the the offensive, and put all the blame on them and Putin while screaming about the "Minsk agreement."

Since it's a given that Novos will be blamed regardless, I'm wondering why they don't go on the offensive. Maybe they still don't have adequate forces to do so? Offense is risky, but maybe the US government's strategy for the Ukes is to never commit to a major thrust again, and just slowly kill everyone and destroy everything from a relatively safe distance. That sounds like something they'd come up with: dirty, ruthless, cowardly, but possibly effective in the long term.

Obviously, the NAF have a clearer picture of what their situation, capabilities, and limitations than we can ever have. Still, it's extremely frustrating having to watch the side of evil and lies deliberately kill civilians day after day.

I'm still hoping something will give and there will be positive developments.

Going on a full blown offensive just plays right into poroshenkos hands. Look how far ukraine has fallen down the black hole, how its militias are biting it on the ass with tensions building up. The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

The rift between porky and the rabbit, pravy sektor, other militias will disappear.
Suddenly more money will be pouring in from europe and the US and ukraines financial meltdown will be put on hold.
The fracturing ukie society will pull together via more brainwashing in the face of russian aggression.

We dont want any of the above happening, why do you think the americans and kiev have been doing their best to goad NAF into doing just that?? If they want you to do it, then its pretty obvious that its the last thing you want to be doing.

There has however, got to be a response to the shelling and constant breaking of the minsk treaty by the ukies. They cant be allowed. Or seen to be allowed to shell residential areas with impunity. Whether the response it political or military, it cannot be ignore

PS, auslander, i think when we see motorola and givi resurface we will have an idea about which way things are going to go

auslander wrote:First, please accept my apologies for my extremely off color post, it has been edited but still, there was no call for such a post.

The situation in Novorossiya is no different tonight than it was yesterday, last night nor the week before. The orcs are steadily increasing their bombardments but that is to be expected. The West doesn't notice and that is to be expected also. None of us are privy to what is being planned in the upper echelons of power and that is to be expected also.

I think that the next two or three weeks will tell the tale and fates will be met. All we can do at this time is wait and watch because none of us are up there nor are we privy to the constant meetings extant in both Mockba and Novorossiya.

Do not apologise, that was best post this whole week, at least.

If someone has better idea how to fight a war he is free to go to Novo and tell & show NAF how it's done.

Having a family is no excuse not to go and provide much needed knowhow if you got it. I'm sure a lot of NAF dudes have families themselves and they still fight.

I'm Canadian. I do not have any middle eastern or slavic ancestry. However I'd like to point out 1 thing. The west loves to see chaos, war, killing in eastern Europe and the middle east. Terrible.

Flagship Victory wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:This is the problem with the Western-dominated world. Having to witness time and time again how the evil wins while the rest of the world is too cowardly and unorganized to do anything about it.

There was nobody to stop the Western attack against Iraq. Russia and China did nothing.

Russia and China did nothing while the West bombed Serbia.

And now that this evil has reached the Russian border and targets Russian people Russia still does nothing.

I am a Western citizen and a Western dominated world probably is good for my material well being, but a moral side of me finds this very disturbing and distressing. I feel for the non-Western world but I also think that they should finally stand up and defend themselves.

Finland is not even a western country. Finnish is not even Indo European.

The west wants chaos, war, killing in eastern Europe, in the Middle East, in north Africa.

Tell that to Finnish Atlanticists (=basically the whole political and intellectual elite of our country) and they would be pretty mad

But yes, Finland while not being part of the "core" of the West is still is part of the West. We are in the EU with euro currency and we are closely cooperating with NATO. Last year we allowed NATO to use our land for war-time military operations.

sepheronx wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:

BKP wrote:I don't think there's been a single day in which Ukes haven't been in violation of Minsk 2. We know the Western MSM ignore or misrepresent this and fully expected them to do so. And, of course, they will howl with outrage if NAF go on the the offensive, and put all the blame on them and Putin while screaming about the "Minsk agreement."

Since it's a given that Novos will be blamed regardless, I'm wondering why they don't go on the offensive. Maybe they still don't have adequate forces to do so? Offense is risky, but maybe the US government's strategy for the Ukes is to never commit to a major thrust again, and just slowly kill everyone and destroy everything from a relatively safe distance. That sounds like something they'd come up with: dirty, ruthless, cowardly, but possibly effective in the long term.

Obviously, the NAF have a clearer picture of what their situation, capabilities, and limitations than we can ever have. Still, it's extremely frustrating having to watch the side of evil and lies deliberately kill civilians day after day.

I'm still hoping something will give and there will be positive developments.

Going on a full blown offensive just plays right into poroshenkos hands. Look how far ukraine has fallen down the black hole, how its militias are biting it on the ass with tensions building up. The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

The rift between porky and the rabbit, pravy sektor, other militias will disappear.
Suddenly more money will be pouring in from europe and the US and ukraines financial meltdown will be put on hold.
The fracturing ukie society will pull together via more brainwashing in the face of russian aggression.

We dont want any of the above happening, why do you think the americans and kiev have been doing their best to goad NAF into doing just that?? If they want you to do it, then its pretty obvious that its the last thing you want to be doing.

There has however, got to be a response to the shelling and constant breaking of the minsk treaty by the ukies. They cant be allowed. Or seen to be allowed to shell residential areas with impunity. Whether the response it political or military, it cannot be ignored.

I hate to say it, but so far, it is being ignored.

And that is my issue with the russian position on this. Im not sure if they are ignoring it completely, we heard lavrovs comments the other day about it, but they arent pushing it vigorously enough politically.

Rodinazombie wrote:
The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.

PapaDragon wrote:If someone has better idea how to fight a war he is free to go to Novo and tell & show NAF how it's done.

A better idea how to fight a war? No.

A better idea how to handle the PR? Yes. Recently, the leadership of the NAF made far too many mistakes on the domestic PR front, the one PR front they can win.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:
The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.

Not quite.
Ukraine won't fall apart more than it already has, but it is likely that the Ukrainian state remains dysfunctional and incapable of fulfilling the promises made by the Maidanists.
The country might die a slow death.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:
The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.

Not quite.
Ukraine won't fall apart more than it already has, but it is likely that the Ukrainian state remains dysfunctional and incapable of fulfilling the promises made by the Maidanists.
The country might die a slow death.

But they still won't disintegrate because there is not enough secessionist mood in non-Donbass Ukraine. Even in supposedly pro-Russian Kharkov and Odessa the few secessionist minded people were easily put down by the junta and the Right Sector.

Ukraine does not have ethnic republics like Russia has. They are all Ukrainian. There are no "Chechnyas" or "Dagestans" in Ukraine.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:
The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.

There are a few characters already in lala land on thos forum and im happy to not be one of them.

Ukraine is highly unlikely to lose any more territory, though it may face unrest in other areas though not necessarily through anti-government rebellion. When i talk about disintigration, im talking about the process of ukraine becoming a failed state, into a country where political process no longer works, where people have nobody to protect them, or money, or food. Thats the process ukraine is going through.

sepheronx wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:First, please accept my apologies for my extremely off color post, it has been edited but still, there was no call for such a post.

The situation in Novorossiya is no different tonight than it was yesterday, last night nor the week before. The orcs are steadily increasing their bombardments but that is to be expected. The West doesn't notice and that is to be expected also. None of us are privy to what is being planned in the upper echelons of power and that is to be expected also.

I think that the next two or three weeks will tell the tale and fates will be met. All we can do at this time is wait and watch because none of us are up there nor are we privy to the constant meetings extant in both Mockba and Novorossiya.

Do not apologise, that was best post this whole week, at least.  

If someone has better idea how to fight a war he is free to go to Novo and tell & show NAF how it's done.

Having a family is no excuse not to go and provide much needed knowhow if you got it. I'm sure a lot of NAF dudes have families themselves and they still fight.

And chances are, their families are caught in this mess.  Mine is not (I am not going to sacrifice the well being of my family whom is not involved in this, because NAF is acting incompetent and I am calling them out on it).  It is alright to criticize a situation as seen.  If you don't think so, then that is your problem.  And why would NAF listen to just a single Canadian as well?  You really didn't think through your comment, did you?

You are a serb, you will know it quite well then.  That sitting around and getting bombed isn't a victory.

Edit: BTW, will you be kind to financially support my wife and daughter while I go and fight in Novorussia?  Because if you were to be kind enough to do that, while also building my patio, my fence, the basement, as well as provide yearly financial support of equal amounts so that my wife and daughter can eat.  Then I will gladly go.

You are making parallels where there are none. NATO and UAF are two very different things. So are Serbian Army and NAF.

When NATO attacked us they expected us to capitulate in 72 hours. Instead they had to settle for negotiated end after 3 months. Getting bombed was unavoidable part of the events.
We were isolated, cut off, outnumbered, outgunned, and out of time. Still we pulled off the impossible.

NAF on the other hand has all the resources and time in the world. And they plan and operate accordingly. This is completely different type of war. They are getting hit but, unlike us, they have room to maneuver. And they will maneuver, trust me. This war will last for very long time.

So calm down. We are all friends here and there is no need to get worked up over one bumpy day.

Those happen in wars.

Rodinazombie wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:
The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.

There are a few characters already in lala land on thos forum and im happy to not be one of them.

Ukraine is highly unlikely to lose any more territory, though it may face unrest in other areas though not necessarily through anti-government rebellion. When i talk about disintigration, im talking about the process of ukraine becoming a failed state, into a country where political process no longer works, where people have nobody to protect them, or money, or food. Thats the process ukraine is going through.

Well yes, I mostly agree about this.

But for Donbass the crucial question is that if Ukraine becomes even more of a failed state than it currently is will it stop the war because Ukraine is unable to fund and organize its army any longer?

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:First, please accept my apologies for my extremely off color post, it has been edited but still, there was no call for such a post.

The situation in Novorossiya is no different tonight than it was yesterday, last night nor the week before. The orcs are steadily increasing their bombardments but that is to be expected. The West doesn't notice and that is to be expected also. None of us are privy to what is being planned in the upper echelons of power and that is to be expected also.

I think that the next two or three weeks will tell the tale and fates will be met. All we can do at this time is wait and watch because none of us are up there nor are we privy to the constant meetings extant in both Mockba and Novorossiya.

Do not apologise, that was best post this whole week, at least.  

If someone has better idea how to fight a war he is free to go to Novo and tell & show NAF how it's done.

Having a family is no excuse not to go and provide much needed knowhow if you got it. I'm sure a lot of NAF dudes have families themselves and they still fight.

Well, that was one of the few times I let emotion take over from good sense and good manners. The last thing I want to do is lower myself to mp standards and that is what I did.

No one knows what is really going on but with my somewhat limited experience I have a good idea. Casualties will continue for some time but in the end victory will be ours, nay sayers be damned.

Karl Haushofer wrote:But they still won't disintegrate because there is not enough secessionist mood in non-Donbass Ukraine. Even in supposedly pro-Russian Kharkov and Odessa the few secessionist minded people were easily put down by the junta and the Right Sector.

Ukraine does not have ethnic republics like Russia has. They are all Ukrainian. There are no "Chechnyas" or "Dagestans" in Ukraine.

Russia could survive losing Chechnya and Dagestan.
What it could not survive is a return of 1990s when the Russian state managed to keep almost all ethnic republics in line, but failed at everything else.
The Ukrainian state can survive losing Crimea, but its general dysfunctionality is existence-threatening.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Rodinazombie wrote:
The moment NAF starts a major offensive and carves up territory that whole process of ukrainian disintigration goes back to zero.

You are living in a la-la land if you think that non-Donbass Ukraine is in danger of disintegration. What happened in Mukacheno was nice and even encouraging, but it was still only a minor skirmish involving only a handful people.

In fact Russia is more of a danger of losing Northern Caucasus than Ukraine is in danger of being disintegrated.

Ya drunk?

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
Russia could survive losing Chechnya and Dagestan.

Probably, but Russia would lose a big portion of Black Sea coastline with Dagestan and also the Caucasus mountains as a geographical barrier in south. And NATO would most likely swallow Chechnya and Dagestan with military bases soon after.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
What it could not survive is a return of 1990s when the Russian state managed to keep almost all ethnic republics in line, but failed at everything else.

I don't see Russia losing Chechnya or Dagestan unless Russia literally "goes back to 1990's". Right now there are no serious prospects of Russia losing these regions, like there is no serious prospects of Ukraine losing any of their current regions either (including Donbass).

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
The Ukrainian state can survive losing Crimea, but its general dysfunctionality is existence-threatening.

Ukraine only lost Crimea because of Russia's direct intervention. Without Russian intervention Crimea would be still Ukrainian.