The Situation in the Ukraine. #13

Flagship Victory wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

Neutrality wrote:I think the annihilation of the Ukrainians near Illovaisk was the proper Russian response for that move.

No it wasn't. Donbas resistance deserves more credit than they are given. Afterall, Ukraine inherited huge piles of Soviet arms, and so did Donbas. If Russian regular troops were involved, Kiev would have fallen, not just Illovaisk.

Exactly. People here are clinging to hopes and possibilities. but are not seeing what is happening. Kiev still goes ahead and kills people, donbass in dire need of assistance in goods/equipment, and Kiev foaming at mouth anti Russian stance allows them to kill innocense around the country with impunity, and they get to survive longer to do that, by getting cheap gas from Russia, as well as Russia not demanding their money back. So effectively, Russia is aiding kiev in their murders like US is.

I suppose Putin cannot openly use the Russian army to destroy Novorossiya because Russia's right wing folks are quite powerful. LDPR and even Just Russia are very supportive of Novorossiya. Putin can only hope that Ukraine armed with US weapons can destroy Novorossiya. The US and the EU sanction Russia, Putin simply stands there and takes the blows and not fight back by sanctioning the US and the EU. The US lies that, for the sanctions on Russia to go away, Novorossiya must be dstroyed as a condition, but after that, not only is Novorossiya destroyed, US sanctions on Russia will remain and even expand. The US already lied about not expanding NATO to Russia's border. Putin would be a fool to believe the US's words.

sepheronx wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:IMO Putin thinks Novorossiya is a liability because it brings US and EU sanctions on Russia. In retaliation, Putin has never directed any sanction besides a 1 year food ban on EU. IMO Putin wants calmness hoping the US and EU would then lift sanctions. So IMO Putin does not want Novorossiya's existence.

Well, he will be in for a rude awakening.  Those sanctions are not going to disappear and US is looking to expand them.  All the while, Russia will end up having a huge army at its borders, larger than they have anywhere else, and this army is itching to start the third world war.

I imagine he will fold, or at least try to before someone in his own clique decide to get rid of him before he does.

sepheronx wrote:Maybe he is, I dunno.  But you are right, they want to split Russia up, and it has been documented that they want this.  Putin is a real idiot for allowing this to happen RIGHT AT HIS BORDER!

This makes my blood boil for sure.  He isn't something that Russia deserves.  They deserve a lot better than that.  Even that drunken, incompetent fool Yeltsin had more balls.

sepheronx wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:

Neutrality wrote:I think the annihilation of the Ukrainians near Illovaisk was the proper Russian response for that move.

No it wasn't. Donbas resistance deserves more credit than they are given. Afterall, Ukraine inherited huge piles of Soviet arms, and so did Donbas. If Russian regular troops were involved, Kiev would have fallen, not just Illovaisk.

Exactly. People here are clinging to hopes and possibilities. but are not seeing what is happening. Kiev still goes ahead and kills people, donbass in dire need of assistance in goods/equipment, and Kiev foaming at mouth anti Russian stance allows them to kill innocense around the country with impunity, and they get to survive longer to do that, by getting cheap gas from Russia, as well as Russia not demanding their money back. So effectively, Russia is aiding kiev in their murders like US is.

I suppose Putin cannot openly use the Russian army to destroy Novorossiya because Russia's right wing folks are quite powerful. LDPR and even Just Russia are very supportive of Novorossiya. Putin can only hope that Ukraine armed with US weapons can destroy Novorossiya. The US and the EU sanction Russia, Putin simply stands there and takes the blows and not fight back by sanctioning the US and the EU. The US lies that, for the sanctions on Russia to go away, Novorossiya must be dstroyed as a condition, but after that, not only is Novorossiya destroyed, US sanctions on Russia will remain and even expand. The US already lied about not expanding NATO to Russia's border. Putin would be a fool to believe the US's words.

I don't believe that Putin actually wants that Novorossiya is defeated. It would not benefit Putin at all, only harm him. Putin has no financial stake on the defeat of Novorossiya, and his popularity among the Russians would probably dive if Novorossiya is allowed to be defeated since Novorossiyan cause is very popular among common Russians.

My guess is that Putin is simply afraid to act. He fears that the risks of more action in Donbass outweight the benefits. In my opinion he is thinking too much about the economy and too little about geopolitics, security and helping ethnic Russians in trouble.

BINGO!

The coward is more afraid for his and his cronies pockets.  They are afraid of a printed currency that is meaningless.

I used to be a big fan of Putin, but I hate him now more than ever.  Simply because of all these events proved that he is a coward and that he is willing to throw his own people and people who request his assistance, in the fire, for a measly billion or two.

BTW, Karl, thanks for bringing up the cheap coal transfers to Ukraine as well.  Forgot about that.  People see that!  Putin is also selling cheap coal to keep Ukraine going.  I guess that is his master plan?  Keeping the country afloat so it can kill its own citizens even more?

Neutrality wrote:sephernox help me understand a thing. You call up on every Russian to wake up and realize what's happening on their soil. You hold Putin accountable for what's happening on Russia's doorstep. Please tell me why you're not so hard for the people of Eastern Ukraine, who up to this day allow the atrocities to happen in their country. Why do Russians living in Russia be more concerned about Ukraine than the people of Ukraine themselves?

In all honesty dude, I am terribly disappointed in you. You always seemed as a calculated person in your replies. I've been reading your posts long before I decided to join on MP.net. I'm shocked at these unintelligent and emotional outbursts that you're writing.

Flagship Victory wrote:
How can unarmed civilians fight against Maidanists armed with tanks, ballistic missiles, artillery? Already, nearly 10,000 civilians have sacrified their lives. In UN terms, this can already be classified as a genocide. The people of Donbas have been brave enough and they have sacrificed a lot. Putin left them high and dry. If you think you are so tough, why don't you go try fight Ukraine's National Guard which was formed from Maidanists?   It's easy to talk the talk. It's not so easy to walk the walk.

Why should Russians care about the people of Donbas, you say? Because they are ethnically Russian. Do you see Hezbollah sitting on their bums while the Shias of Syria get butchered by US armed terrorists? No you don't. If Hezbollah can do it, why can't Russians do it? Russians are way more powerful than Hezbollah.

Neutrality wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:
How can unarmed civilians fight against Maidanists armed with tanks, ballistic missiles, artillery? Already, nearly 10,000 civilians have sacrified their lives. In UN terms, this can already be classified as a genocide. The people of Donbas have been brave enough and they have sacrificed a lot. Putin left them high and dry. If you think you are so tough, why don't you go try fight Ukraine's National Guard which was formed from Maidanists?   It's easy to talk the talk. It's not so easy to walk the walk.

Why should Russians care about the people of Donbas, you say? Because they are ethnically Russian. Do you see Hezbollah sitting on their bums while the Shias of Syria get butchered by US armed terrorists? No you don't. If Hezbollah can do it, why can't Russians do it? Russians are way more powerful than Hezbollah.

What a load of bullshit from you again. Donetsk and Lugansk rose against those very same Maidanists armed with tanks, ballistic missiles and artillery perfectly fine. They have alot to endure but they managed to do it. There's nothing stopping Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and Kherson to pull off the exact same scenario. Watch Kiev shit a brick and back down as soon as the oblasts I mentioned, rise against Kiev. There's no way any Western MSM could ignore such an event. If Poroshenko even dares to use the army against them, he'll go down in history as a mass murderer like Pol Pot or worse. If the same shit ever happens in this country and I mean a similar scenario, I won't hesitate.

I didn't say "why Russians should care about the people of Donbass", stop putting words in my mouth. I said why should Russians care more about Ukraine when the Ukrainians themselves don't care what happens to their homeland.

Flagship Victory wrote:Perfectly fine? I suppose the Rwandan genocide was perfectly fine to you.

Neutrality wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Perfectly fine? I suppose the Rwandan genocide was perfectly fine to you.

Oh I see, what's going on. I guess I did fall for your trolling. Congratulations, you won.

kvs wrote:

Erk wrote:

sepheronx wrote:No, when you cant pay your bills, you get cut off. So effectively, Ukraine should have been cut off, but instead, Russia allowed contract to be overwritten and they now sell it at a discount. That is keeping kiev alive. Debt was supposed to be dealt with last year, and this year, Ukraine went past debt agreement on how much debt they can collect from IMF, which of course kiev broke and Russia once again did not call in the debt.

Russia have cut off gas to Ukraine several times, last year is was for something like 5months until they finally coughed up some money.

This is western media BS.   In both 2006 and 2009 it was the Yuschenko regime that cut off flow.   Gazprom had an independent Swiss
firm monitoring the meters and valves on the Russian side of the border.   But the western media chorus bleated "blackmail" over and
over.

As for recently, Ukraine was getting "reverse" flow of Gazprom's gas via Poland and Slovakia and it was Ukraine that decided to "live
without Russian gas".   So at no stage did Gazprom ever cut off Ukraine's supply.

Russia has turned off gas supplies through Ukraine twice, in the winters of 2006 and 2009, after Kiev was late paying. Halting natural gas supplies not only hurt Ukraine, but also squeezed European neighbors, as prices shot up and millions of European homes were left without heat. Both periods lasted about three weeks.

Neutrality wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Perfectly fine? I suppose the Rwandan genocide was perfectly fine to you.

Oh I see, what's going on. I guess I did fall for your trolling. Congratulations, you won.

sepheronx wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Anyone know where the DPR defense minister Kononov is these days? Kononov is the secessor of Strelkov. Kononov was setting up DPR's arms industry a while back because once Putin closes that border per Minsk 2 nothing will get into Novorossiya from Russia. NAF needs to be able to manufacture their own artillery and guns until 2018 when Putin supposedly loses election.

All I remember reading was that they are using some old repair plants in Donetsk and Lugansk as means to assemble working machines from old machines and war booty, and to maybe manufacture some light weapons and artillery.  But have not heard anything since.

At this point, the only thing they can expect from Putin and Co are aid in terms of financial, medicine, food, blankets/clothing, etc.  Which is good as it is.  But they will definitely need weapons.  Thank god that Lugansk at least manufactures ammunition, they could improve it to manufacture things like artillery ammunition and the likes.  As for others, they will definitely need milling equipment, and some sort of small chemical plant for production of explosive substances in order to make the ammunition (which I suppose they would already have if they make ammo and other submunitions).

Right now is the time for them to re-arm, and start building up their capabilities, cause they are going to be semi alone.  Hopefully they get enough in terms of donation money so they can afford to buy/smuggle or anything equipment needed to start manufacturing processes.  My understanding is, during a conflict, the black market thrives, and I wonder if they would be able to gain access to such equipment from such sources or from smuggling from Russia?

One can hope.

Edit: As well, apparently Kadyrov and Chechnya as whole sent 150 tons of supplies to Novorussia: http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/05/chechnya-delivers-150-tons-of.html

I would say it is a VERY good gesture from Kadyrov.  Good on him.