magnumcromagnon wrote:I have a feeling after the Victory Day Parade something big will happen from the Russian side, just like something big (Crimea joining Russia again) happened after the Sochi Winter Olympics.
Something big will happen on victory day alright - it will be celebrated by Russian tanks in Kiev.
The government in Kiev is untolerable. Going into east Ukraine will be a huge mess, but there is increasingly no other option - at least what concerns Donetsk and Lugansk, where resistance is strengthening and local opinon there is hugely against the Kiev junta. They are being killed though, and not just the armed rebels - today a car with 5 girls was shot up, one of them died, a 21-year old medical student. Over last night about 5 people were killed and 10 injured; most of them just protestors it seems although a few were rebels. More were killed today.
Now buildings have been stormed in Lugansk and Donetsk throughout the night by the anti-government protestors, the crowd is enraged not only by the military operation but also by the events in Odessa.
It's clear the amount of deaths will only ramp up, as Kiev moves ahead with its military operation, and local resistance will only intensify in response.
The best option would be for Russia to convince the West to press Kiev to withdraw all its forces, but the West has no intention of doing that.
Therefore, Russia has 2 options:
a. Invasion of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, forcing the surrender or annihilation of all present Ukrainian military units as well as militias, Pravyj Sektor, Nats Guard formations.
b. jion strike on Ukrainian government in Kiev, assassination of Turchinov, Yatsenyuk,[/b] possibly the Ukrainian MoD head, and other ringleaders. This can be carried out with precision strikes at an opportune time, when they are away from public places.
Optionally, Yarosh can be left alive - so that he can try and seize the government and in response half the army refuses to take his orders.