The Situation in the Ukraine. #3

Warning of more tougher sanctions

US Warns Russia of Tougher Sanctions Over Ukraine

Fanfare Valediction. "Right Sector" Ultra-Nationalists are leaving Odessa.


Local people in eastern Ukrainian town Rovenki stopped and turned back buses with military personnel.

arpakola wrote:The parliamentarians considered that the change of power had opened a window of opportunity for Ukraine’s democratic development.

Liberal democracy sleeps safely since that damned EU-backed powersharing/transition agreement was torn up by patriotic citizens, and totalitarian Russian Eurasian concepts of what "3/4 majority to impeach a president" were abandoned for the historical anachronism they are.  Free people can now forget the bad times when the EU Parliament warned against any cooperation with Svoboda, and the saintly boys who did their duty to occupy government buildings and seize power can now help the righteous government of Timoshenko and Tianybok deal with the Russian slaves conspiring to commit evil crimes like occupying government buildings and seizing power.

Austin wrote:Warning of more tougher sanctions

NATO has such a throw-away culture.  Their lies only need to last 5 minutes before they get a new lie.
If we recall, it was clear that no further sanctions against Russia were planned if they didn't invade Ukraine Russia proper, not withstanding non-recognition of Crimea's referendum by West.  Russia hasn't done anything since then, yet now are facing threats of more sanctions, expulsion from PACE, etc... Because they're blamed for Novo Rossiyans' misbehavior?

I love how NATO expounds on the badness of Russia's actions, and how it must return to the civilized Western norm of diplomacy and dialogue... Never mind that Russia's complaints of the coup's illegality was ignored during NATO's celebratory revel following the coup, along with their complaints about the EU-brokered agreement not being followed.  The EU was happy to negotiate with Yanukovych over joining EU free trade zone, etc, but when he rejected it because it made no economic sense, and asked the EU for 3-way talks including Russia to negotiate some viable in-between status, the EU refused, no reason given.  The West so loves dialogue that they refuse to even engage any of Russia's arguments - They don't need to adopt Russia's exact line, but they won't even mention the torn-up agreement or why it can't be followed, they won't touch the 3/4 majority and judicial consulation required by constitution for impeachment, they won't acknowledge not-legally-impeached-so-still-legitimate President Yanukovych's direct request to Russia to use their troops to protect Ukrainians vs. forces of the coup.  That last bit may even be equally relevant to the situation in SE Ukraine, as Yanu didn't phrase it exclusively to Crimea.  They won't acknowledge that international law itself doesn't bar self-determination secession, just the opposite, any limitation on it is just due to integrity of national states and their own specific laws, but the coup overthrew the constitutional order and eviscerated the legitimate constitutional court, so there is no legitimate body of Ukraine that can rule against Crimea's referendum.

The NATO media coverage is embarrassing because when they get to covering what is actually happening in Ukraine, well, the Novo Rossiyans refusing to bow down to the Maidan coup are doing pretty much the same thing that the angelic Maidan protesters were doing.  Of course, all the facts leading up to that were glossed over, first by NATO's basking in the glory of success of the coup and ignoring any bothersome details, and then focusing purely on Crimea while ignoring ongoing evens in Ukraine.  But whatever... Reality threatens to burst their bubble, and the Maidan coup looks to end up like the Bay of Pigs, economic reality will hit and the coup regime will have trouble functioning in it's own backyard in Kiev and Galicia.  Hopefully not too many people die along the way, although NATO hardly has a great track record there, what with the US sabotaging negotiations to trigger the Bosnian War with 100k deaths only to end up with nearly the same end result as was negotiated before the war.


This is the police officer who led the assault on the Kharkiv occupation, and received an award from the coup regime for his bravery, but he ended up renouncing the award and resigning from the police shortly after.  That was with much of the local police refusing to follow order to attack the protestors, forcing the junta to bring in police from elsewhere in Ukraine, like Poltava.  The coup Interior Minister later announced he will fire all disloyal police like them.  So there is alot of elements of the state security forces themselves who aren't 100% on board the coup's train, even if they haven't out and out rebelled yet (sans Berkut and other local forces who joined Crimea).  The military also was refusing to follow orders to attack Ukrainians (under both the junta and Yanukovych), which explains why the junta was supposed to have appointed "Maidan Self Defence" types as "morale officers" to ensure military loyalty.  The creation of the National Guard itself seems to serve two purposes, organizing the nationalist mobs who otherwise may be a threat to the coup regime, and having a much more loyal force that will follow orders.  Maidan itself took months to reach it's peak... So I'm confident that Novo Russia will get it's voice heard as well. If the Maidanites want their revolution, then Novo Russia can have theirs as well.

Better this: "Vladimir the Great and his magnificent stratagem towards Ukraine"

Well, this is interesting.

BBC wrote:Ukraine's interim prime minister has offered to devolve more powers to eastern regions, where pro-Russian separatists are defying the government.

He is holding talks with regional leaders in Donetsk, where activists demanding self-rule are holding a big government building.

It is not clear if Arseniy Yatsenyuk's offer will satisfy the separatists.

Might be the famous: "Promise them anything, and hang them later" thing.
I hope people don't fall for that.

Hannibal Barca wrote:Better this: "Vladimir the Great and his magnificent stratagem towards Ukraine"

In actual fact, the title is appropriate - Putin's policy did fail in the Ukraine.

If it didn't, we'd be discussing the terms of Ukraine's entrance to the Customs Union right now with Yanukovich.

macedonian wrote:Well, this is interesting.

BBC wrote:Ukraine's interim prime minister has offered to devolve more powers to eastern regions, where pro-Russian separatists are defying the government.

He is holding talks with regional leaders in Donetsk, where activists demanding self-rule are holding a big government building.

It is not clear if Arseniy Yatsenyuk's offer will satisfy the separatists.

Might be the famous: "Promise them anything, and hang them later" thing.
I hope people don't fall for that.

Some paper compromise. What a load.

But there is no offer. Yatsenyuk is meeting with the very same people he appointed just a few weeks ago, and is merely discussing strategy with them.

Stupid BBC.

macedonian wrote:

Might be the famous: "Promise them anything, and hang them later" thing.
I hope people don't fall for that.

Indeed it could be that.. So they should demand full autonomy from Kiev ,to have their own Loyal well armed Police with assault rifles and bullet proof vest in the thousands and security and have then in full control of all government buildings in the city and the security of Dontesk. And the the role of Kiev only to deal with the nation economy and army. The same deal should be done to Lugansk and Kahrkiv.
And Odessa.  and to continue improving the building like a fortress , just in case they later change their mind. That will truly help end Ukraine tensions and keep the nation in one piece . I don't think Russia is interested in Annexing  1/3 of Ukraine with a bankrupt economy that they will later have to carry and raise their salaries. Ideally it will be awesome if Russia peacefully can get all South Ukraine access to the Sea and security totally the entire coast but also all eastern Ukraine.. but that will make impossible for Ukraine to survive economically.
On top that it will be hard and expensive for Russia to provide security for the eastern zones with neo nazis infiltrating in their zones armed with machine guns and rocket grenades. Russia best hope is.. Full autonomy for all eastern regions of Ukraine but at the same time being part of Ukraine .It will be very expensive to annex   All eastern parts of Ukraine for Russia economy and not worth of the economical benefits in return.

The best thing of NATO-Ukraine coup in kiev ,is that for the first time ,is teaching the Pro-Russian factions to MOBILIZE ,to ORGANIZE
to Work Together as a Team and to become more active in making things to happen to change their future. In Donetsk..for example
even Moms and grandmas are participating in enhancing the security of Donetsk building.. So thing like this IS what pro Russia Ukranians needs to do ,to provoke unity in all eastern side of Ukraine and become stronger and united as a force. here is a new report by RT ,that
shows how slowly pro Russian people are becoming more active in helping their country..

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-protest-deadline-expires-856/

macedonian wrote:Might be the famous: "Promise them anything, and hang them later" thing.

Indeed, Here and here (in Russian) is Boris Filatov, the coup appointed oligarch-governor of Dnipropetrovsk, ranting "These scum should be given promises, guarantees, and any concessions…And hung…They should be hung later", also stating that his problem with the coup regime passing a law removing official protection for Russian language was that the move was "premature" (i.e. "smart nazi" tactics).

The point is that promises from the Maidan junta on regional rights, or from NATO on non-expansion are meaningless.  The point of federalization is that it has TEETH to ensure that promises can't be broken at the wave of a hand, or a 51% majority.  Meaning an effective regional veto over changes to constitution, over treaties with other countries, and with self-governance over everything that matters to them.  In fact AFAIK the demands have included economic autonomy, allowing to cut better deals with Russia in exchange for closer cooperation, and allowing autonomous trade deals.  Regional control of police and military would also make sense given things have now come to this point.  Tymoshenko et al have opposed strong federalism because they see it as a step towards separatism via the enabling of regional mechanism of state, but as long as the regions are happy they have no reason to leave.

Another good thing coming out of the SE organizing like this because it needs to is that it will certainly help break out of the mold that Party of Regions engendered, along with minor role played by stagnant Communist party.  PoR and affiliated oligarchs largely cooperated with the junta despite not even being in their cabinet, so the SE is likely to seek out new political representation, regardless of developments from here.  Ukraine was a rotting hulk as is, a revolution was hardly surprising or unjustified in that situation, but thankfully the SE and non-Russophobic sector of society has been able to stand against the coup's violence and intimidation and make their own revolution... Even if it may still seem precarious at this moment.

Well of course we are concerned about PACE's decision.
Honest!
 

http://rt.com/news/nato-satellite-images-drills-712/

Yeah, no.

SOC wrote:http://rt.com/news/nato-satellite-images-drills-712/

Yeah, no.

Yeah, no as in you agree, or yeah, no as in the Russian General Staff is full of it?   

flamming_python wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:Better this: "Vladimir the Great and his magnificent stratagem towards Ukraine"

In actual fact, the title is appropriate - Putin's policy did fail in the Ukraine.

If it didn't, we'd be discussing the terms of Ukraine's entrance to the Customs Union right now with Yanukovich.

In postmortem analysis this would have been impossible. No way prior to this for Ukrainian's to be convinced that
a) Russia is seriously getting stronger
b) Eastern investments keep Ukrainian economy afloat
c) Ukrainians should work for themselves first and foremost and then ask for foreign help
d) West is not a paradise with endless amounts of cash actually is in a serious (lethal) crisis and has no cash whatsoever
e) West is not the powerhouse of morality and democracy pretend to be
You have to live some things first hand in order to be convinced and in the case of Ukraine, I have to admit, that this was the case.

Apart from this, the show of force Putin did was of paramount importance.
Proved to everybody that Americans are completely powerless to protect their eastern European allies at least.
We are talking about some 10 countries here! This will soon prove to be a devastating blow.
I risk to say that the impact of this might be bigger that the defeat in Vietnam in terms of PR.
I mean it is absolutely MEGA! Just ask a Lithuanian or a Romanian or a Polish.
They were not even thinking that Russia will challenge the almighty US ever again, at least not in this millenia..... and they were acting with absolute confidence.
And here already, with the rebuild of the state just barely begun, can act completely unopposed and NATO can only pray and beg!

I mean, seriously, this is the definition of a triumph.

flamming_python wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:Better this: "Vladimir the Great and his magnificent stratagem towards Ukraine"

In actual fact, the title is appropriate - Putin's policy did fail in the Ukraine.

If it didn't, we'd be discussing the terms of Ukraine's entrance to the Customs Union right now with Yanukovich.

Who beleaved that this was doable.?
Whith 40-50% of the population looking so strongly to the EU .. that was only a dream.
What should be done might be to get prepared to draw the line upon Kiev and let Lvov do what ever they wanted. Now the line will be drawn further east .. but who realy beleaved that Ukrane as a TOTAl could be able to be member of the union ?

flamming_python wrote:

SOC wrote:http://rt.com/news/nato-satellite-images-drills-712/

Yeah, no.

Yeah, no as in you agree, or yeah, no as in the Russian General Staff is full of it?   

They're full of it. Although there is another issue as well, which I'll be publishing soon.

SOC wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

SOC wrote:http://rt.com/news/nato-satellite-images-drills-712/

Yeah, no.

Yeah, no as in you agree, or yeah, no as in the Russian General Staff is full of it?   

They're full of it.  Although there is another issue as well, which I'll be publishing soon.

Makes sense - would be stupid not to keep forces on standby considering everything going on.

arpakola wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:Better this: "Vladimir the Great and his magnificent stratagem towards Ukraine"

In actual fact, the title is appropriate - Putin's policy did fail in the Ukraine.

If it didn't, we'd be discussing the terms of Ukraine's entrance to the Customs Union right now with Yanukovich.

Who beleaved that this was doable.?
Whith 40-50% of the population looking so strongly to the EU .. that was only a dream.
What should be done might be to get prepared to draw the line upon Kiev and let Lvov do what ever they wanted. Now the line will be drawn further east .. but who realy beleaved that Ukrane as a TOTAl could be able to be member of the union ?

All the polls showed about equal support for Customs Union and EU entry; 40-50% - so basically the country was on the fence. Perfectly possible to pull it into one or the other direction, provided that it had at least a moderately stable government that managed to secure the trust or at least apathy of most of its people.

And Yanukovich had plenty of chances to push the Maidan protests into insignificance & boredom, calm the tensions, fool them with promises and make some symbolic concessions, set one group of Maidanists against another, enforce order and security at key locations/moments and not let the situation descend into chaos; look how expertly the current rulers in Kiev have done it all over the south-east for the last 5-6 weeks.

It's just that he happened to make a wrong decision at every single step.
He was weak & incompetent, betrayed his own electorate, and secound-guessed all of his own decisions and had his subordinates and allies take the fall for his failures - hell of a combination.

And Russia bet on this douchebag, although admittedly there was hardly an alternative at the time.

Hehe.. Loyal soviet indeed. LOL

An interesting Map that might show what Regions Russia have a chance to take control in case Ukraine Disband..




Well Crimea is already with Russia ,but the other zones could definitively Land lock Ukraine and make them
totally in Control of the black sea with no chance for NATO to stop anywhere in Ukraine with their warships.

"Foreign Minister: Russia has no intention to incorporate south-eastern regions of Ukraine"
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/727470
Huge blow for the protesters. Now is even harder. Sacrificies (job, prison, life) for.."federation?"
Sevastopol.info is on fire, literally.
It seems that tomorrow they will try to retake Kharkov.

zino wrote:"Foreign Minister: Russia has no intention to incorporate south-eastern regions of Ukraine"
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/727470
Huge blow for the protesters. Now is even harder. Sacrificies (job, prison, life) for.."federation?"
Sevastopol.info is on fire, literally.
It seems that tomorrow they will try to retake Kharkov.

Not necessarily. That doesn't means Russia will NEVER do it.. just that now they have no intention or not planning that now..
Putin told the same thing about Crimea and we know how it ended. But all other Ukraine main cities are more difficult to justify.
But if All southern + eastern cities of Ukraine vote overwhelming for their independence, Russia will recognize them. In the same way they did it with Abzakia , transmitia and South ossetia and will help them economically and arm them with weapon for self defences Once they
have a referendum and elections. Still their independence will be far better for Ukrainians pro Russia ,than to be part of the EU and live in a bankrupt nation with neo nazis in kiev. And after some years ,once situation is stable in south eastern ukraine and the government working and they independent Russia could start the process of annexing them.

new report about ukraine..



Finally vice ,get a neutral report of Ukraine.

Loudmouth Ukrainian marine got his ass beat by the Odessa pro-Russian Druzhina

You see him shouting at the start of the vid, and then the vid follows his fate over the next couple of minutes   

zino wrote:"Foreign Minister: Russia has no intention to incorporate south-eastern regions of Ukraine"
http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/727470
Huge blow for the protesters. Now is even harder. Sacrificies (job, prison, life) for.."federation?"
Sevastopol.info is on fire, literally.
It seems that tomorrow they will try to retake Kharkov.

nobody has the financial resourses anymore to support 40 mill people, not usa ,not eu ,especially not russia it would cost too much and make a huge economic burden to support even 20 mill people now let alone 40 mill.

Russia has deffinately lost some parts of ukraine, some gained.
For such a big country like Ukraine federation of sorts between pro rus parts and western parts is best.

East could block any unilateral decision of western parts to join eu or nato and is the best russia can do for now.

Also these parts could make referendums in some future ,depending on the situation, and join Russia when its more prepared and ready for it , not only russia but east ukraine too ,since today many people are undecisive and in the future they will time have to choose sides, so things will become more clearer who is truly pro-russian and what parts of the country can be incorporated also economies of east and west will drift more and more apart i think.
-If Rusia was truly superpower it could grab whole ukraine but its regional power supporting 20 mill people is not sustainable for russia for now. .   
and here are some maps of historic divisions in todays ukraine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk%E2%80%93Krivoy_Rog_Soviet_Republic