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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:02 pm

    All very disturbing.

    1)I hope Putin and everyone in the field  have planned all this out.
    Russia gains nothing by placating the Western gutter press. Pro Russian civillians cant be sacrificed
    for public relations battles IMO.

    2)Clearly the Lvov loonies are much akin to SucktieWilly from Georgia. They are dangerous, unpredictable, backed by the US. And care nothing for logic and rules.

    3)These are simple protestors being attacked and intimidated by tanks, and helicopters, jets, Neo-Nazis and other terrorist vermin. Even the claim for an independent Ukraine in the East of the region is laughable. Moscow inherited the rights and obligations of the USSR, therefore it is for Moscow to sort out Yeltsin's mess, IMO. NOT Kiev.

    4)Russia will lose nothing from going against the West. And if Russia doesnt act soon, the Russian identity of the Ukraine could be lost forever.

    Surely we cant be far away from full scale intervention?
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    As Sa'iqa


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    Post  As Sa'iqa Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:07 pm

    @macedonian:
    What's the point of spewing all that gobbledygook? If Russian speaking Ukrainians in the east want to be autonomous or even a part of Russia, let them be. The next 15-20 years will show whether it was worth it or not. I hope this forum to be still active by then so if I am right I will remind you of it and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

    I feel Slavic. However, mostly I consider myself a pan-western eurocentrist and anti-leftist. I admire Western Civilization as the greatest thing that ever existed, that's my identify. The language I speak and the country I was born in are secondary matter. I feel more affinity with Phalangists from Lebanon than with some Russians/Ukrainians out there.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:11 pm

    macedonian wrote:
    As Sa'iqa wrote:One thing is sure - the new Ukraine without Crimea and eastern regions will become a mortal enemy of Russia, yearning for revenge. If they manage to institute major economic reforms (as Poland did in early 1990s0, they'll become a fast developing country.



    What about Russia? It will be a miracle if Russia experiences 1% growth this year. The US will have a growth rate of 3% and 4% in 2015.

    Sure, if wishful thinking and fact are the same - you'd probably be right.
    You know, many of your posts (as well as the posts I read on MP.net by Polish, Finnish, Swedish, English, Romanian, and American members) make me want to slap someone. You do your country no justice, you know! You just alienate others from feeling compassionate towards other Poles.
    Now please tell me: ARE YOU SLAVIC, OR ARE YOU GERMAN/SAXON?!
    DO YOU PREFER BEING A SLAVE TO THE ANGLOS, OR DO YOU WANT TO BE INDEPENDENT?!

    Next time you provoke me into answering, I'll tell you EXACTLY how they view/treat Poles in England (hint: your 'allies' RIDICULE you!!! You are shite to them!!!).
    And I'll tell you just which jobs the Poles were employed to do in Britain!!!
    Stop it! Have at least SOME DIGNITY!!!


    Long story short. He is Catholic so belongs to West. We are Orthodox so we belong to the East. West also include protestants, Lutherans etc.
    East include also some Muslims, namely the Shia and the Alawites and additional Hindus and Buddhists or at least most of them.
    It turns out to be a religion/cultural issue like always have been in human history and not racial/linguistic one.
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    Post  As Sa'iqa Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:19 pm

    I am an atheist and not a Catholic. Pro-Christian in general.
    Russia, however, is not a western country. The West has come through the Renaissance and the Enlightenment. Russia is a weird mix of Byzantine absolutist tradition mixed with the political culture of the Golden Horde. One historian (I can't recall his name now) has classified Russia as a Turanic country - effectively an antithesis of civilization.

    EDIT: Ok, I got him
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feliks_Koneczny
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 9 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #3

    Post  macedonian Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:26 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:@macedonian:
    What's the point of spewing all that gobbledygook? If Russian speaking Ukrainians in the east want to be autonomous or even a part of Russia, let them be. The next 15-20 years will show whether it was worth it or not. I hope this forum to be still active by then so if I am rightm I will remind you of ir and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

    I feel Slavic. However, mostly I consider myself a pan-western eurocentrist and anti-leftist. I admire Western Civilization as the greatest thing that ever existed, that's my identify. The language I speak and the country I was born in are secondary matter. I feel more affinity with Phalangists from Lebanon than with some Russians/Ukrainians out there.

    You 'feel' Slavic?!
    Well, your allies KNOW you are! And they treat you NOT as an equal!
    Feel free to clean as many toilets as you like - because that's how your allies see you: As a potential toilet cleaner. I hope that makes you proud?!

    Pan-western 'Eurocentric'?
    Sure, as long as you are of use to the people who claim to be 'the real Europeans' you are fine. The second they don't need you, you'll be as useful as a used toilet paper. Hope that makes you proud?

    Since you provoked me:
    We (ex-Yugolslavs)...well, we had a joke about Poles: 'The English could make you do anything they want...you'd clean their shite, command you about, abuse you as much as they want, and you'd still be waiting for their orders. NONE OF US WERE WILLING TO DO WHAT THE POLES WERE!!! And I don't care about GDP, or how rich any of us were (we were as poor as the Poles, if not poorer) - we were NEVER WILLING TO TAKE SUCH AN ABUSE!

    In such a racist society that was Britain - You were lower than the Arabs! Hope you feel proud of that. The English owners of the nightclubs were making jokes about what the Polish people were ready to do for money...they would send the Polish bartenders over to clean the loo's, and they would never mind...THEY WERE WILLING TO DO ANYTHING JUST TO BE ACCEPTED IN WESTERN SOCIETY...sadly - THEY NEVER WERE!!!

    So admire them as much as you want slave...that's what you are to them...cannon fodder! Willing to die for someone who will abuse you any chance they get.
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    Post  Werewolf Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:26 pm

    That says everything a deluded polish guy that cheers for empirial genocide that succeeded already 100 mln people globaly in only last century.
    Western "civilizations" are the worst that could happen to majority of this planet. Occupation and slaving indians,chinese, complete destruction of north and south american civilizations more than 50-60 mln alone. Agendas to destroy patriots in foreign countries and their history such as Poland, that is why you personally are such a deluded ignorant fool who cheers for west instead of despise the West for what it did to your country and slavic brothers.

    You're just a dud in todays time, completley fooled about history and how the West played one country against another country while they were and still are the people who actually aim to kill us.

    Such people like you are the problem in the world admiring your slave master that he kills your own people and destroys your home,country and identity and you are just like the nigger traitor in Django Unchained a black slave that is against blacks and cheers to its slave masters, just pathetic that someone can identify himself with the enemy, sounds like Stockholm Snydrome.
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    Post  arpakola Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:03 pm


    FAKE ???


    Last edited by arpakola on Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:17 pm; edited 2 times in total
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:09 pm

    Video is from Syria. Been disproven.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:19 pm

    Looks like the mayor of Slavyansk has turned chicken and decided to defect.
    You may remember here welcoming the rebels into town 3 days ago with a megaphone and defusing the situation



    Well now she's fled town (despite denying it yesterday), and has had a phone-in interview with a Ukrainian news channel. Now she's saying that there are Russian soldiers among the rebels, that only 0.5% of the population are standing for federalization and they are all the standard communists, and that the only reason she welcomed them is because they were holding hostages and she had no choice.

    Gotta give it to her, she knows how to bullshit. Assuming it's her of course.

    http://censor.net.ua/video_news/281158/v_slavyanske_boeviki_iz_kryma_i_rossii_zahvatyvayut_zalojnikov_mer_shtepa_audio

    ======================

    Ukr media is making up phantom victories against phantom opponents, a story was posted about
    how a battallion (which doesn't exist) held a checkpoint (which doesn't exist) against an
    attack by seperatist forces (which made no such attack)

    http://felix-edmund.livejournal.com/64782.html

    ======================

    A good map of the current situation

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 9 Mapmap11

    first text bubble - where a battle is taking place
    second text bubble - where a National Guard unit was disarmed by local residents
    legend:
    red = anti-Maidan protest
    black = pro-Maidan protest
    red & black facing each other = confrontation between 2 groups
    flag = where the DPR has taken control

    Note that this map is out of date; not shown on it are the towns of Zurges, Shaxtersk, Kirovskaya, Zhadnovka & Llovaisk at least, which have come under the DPR's control

    ======================

    Town of Shaxtersk has been taken under the control of the DPR, DPR flag was raised.



    ======================

    Ukrainian military has taken Kramatorsk airport and is assaulting the town - or rather it's claiming that it is

    http://russian.rt.com/article/27903

    ======================

    NATO General Secretary Rasmussen has responded to journalists questions about the involvement of Russian forces. Rasmussen didn't offer any evidence, instead such soundbites as:
    "This information is reliable"
    "Out of principle we don't comment on reconnaisance info" (fair enough I support)
    aaaand
    "The situation speaks for itself"

    http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/907977/

    ======================

    Graffiti in Moscow

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #3 - Page 9 Graf11

    "Donbass Republic - hold on brothers!"


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Vann7 Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:26 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    They will need, sooner or later, beg the very same Russian and Chinese investments that turned down recently to come back and save them.

    Thats the biggest IRONY in all this.. that NO MATTER what Kiev does.. if they successful taking back the eastern part of Ukraine or Not.
    In the end they will need to negotiate with Russia and plead for economical help and gas discounts and help their economy and Russia will NOT give anything until they accept the demands for reforms by the eastern side of Ukraine. THis is because Even Europe depends on Russia for gas and there is no substitute anywhere in the near future .also because Europe will NOT Finance Ukraine knowing their money will be wasted in the civil war ,crackdown on civilians and will not help to improve ukraine economy. Neither USA have money to maintain Ukraine.

    SO as you said Ukraine have no chance of recovering the economy ,and everyone will lose their jobs .. In the end the same maidan will start fighting each other . Central and western Ukraine will also rebel when they realize the dont have food or gas or lectricity for their basic needs.and  the Kiev Junta is not working and that Europe does not help them..  Time is on the side of Russia and not of kiev.

    I suspect a major movement of refugees from Ukraine to Russia ,and Russian communist parties recruiting spetnaz veterans of afgan war to help defend the Russians in Ukraine. I don't think is a good idea for Russia to use its army not yet.. Ukranians will need to learn to fight for themselves and keep the pressure of the kiev Government. IF the Ukranian army evacuate one building ,then when they leave they take it back. Kiev junta do not have the money ,neither the strong support they need to keep a crackdown on civilians for a long time.
    Simply this is a war that the kiev coup have not a chance to win.. not even remotely.  They could clear all eastern Ukraine and that will not stop the unrest. The more civilians killed the more the Ukraine army will split and disband and the less likely the kiev junta will survive in power. My prediction is either they negotiate with Russia and accept the reforms or the kiev junta will end overthrow by their own pro EU people.

    if i were Putin ,i will send an army of journalist with spy advanced cameras remote controlled on top of all buildings and roads with check points and deploy them in strategic places in all eastern and souther Ukraine where civilians could be attacked by the army. and use the videos to show the bloodshed of the kiev government against civilians. and pressure them world wide to stop using their army against civilians. Videos of civilians killed will disband the army in no time and turn against the kiev junta. It was Videos and world opinion what pressured NATO for not using their army against Syria aside of the Russia supply of weapons to them.


    Last edited by Vann7 on Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:33 pm

    Russia should not spend time dealing with the front and the asymmetric threats. Should start a pincher move from Crimea and from the North in parallel closing down to Kiev. The government will paralyze and the war will end before the Easter. Parrying the threats will take more time and prove very dangerous.
    After this east/north Ukrain will be de facto separated and the western Europe can deal with her poverty, a huge defeat and lack of leadership.
    It's important now to act disproportionally.
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    Post  Intrigado Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:36 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:I am an atheist and not a Catholic. Pro-Christian in general.
    Russia, however, is not a western country. The West has come through the Renaissance and the Enlightenment. Russia is a weird mix of Byzantine absolutist tradition mixed with the political culture of the Golden Horde. One historian (I can't recall his name now) has classified Russia as a Turanic country - effectively an antithesis of civilization.

    EDIT: Ok, I got him

    For pity's sake. Nor Poland is a Western country. Poland is a Central European country, as Romania is a South East European country. Yes, it may be that today Western Europe is seen as the peak of civilization but remember when the Renaissance has kicked off and started to flourish: after the fall of Constantinople. Remember that as the West was mired in the Dark Ages, bells were ringing atop Hagia Sophia. You cannot compare the development of Russia or anyone else's from this part of Europe with France, Italy or England's development. We didn't have the same footing to begin with. And what's today deemed as "civilization", it could be rejected tomorrow, who knows... Laughing
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:41 pm

    Vann7 wrote:
    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    They will need, sooner or later, beg the very same Russian and Chinese investments that turned down recently to come back and save them.

    Thats the biggest IRONY in all this.. that NO MATTER what Kiev does.. if they successful taking back the eastern part of Ukraine or Not.
    In the end they will need to negotiate with Russia and plead for economical help and gas discounts and help their economy and Russia will NOT give anything until they accept the demands for reforms by the eastern side of Ukraine. THis is because Even Europe depends on Russia for gas and there is no substitute anywhere in the near future .also because Europe will NOT Finance Ukraine knowing their money will be wasted in the civil war ,crackdown on civilians and will not help to improve ukraine economy. Neither USA have money to maintain Ukraine.

    SO as you said Ukraine have no chance of recovering the economy ,and everyone will lose their jobs .. In the end the same maidan will start fighting each other . Central and western Ukraine will also rebel when they realize the dont have food or gas or lectricity for their basic needs.and  the Kiev Junta is not working and that Europe does not help them..  Time is on the side of Russia and not of kiev.
    .


    This is because I am Greek and I know that Europe lacks a billion to save the ass of their most devoted allies (eg Greek junta).
    Now Ukraine needs some 10-15 billions PER YEAR and there is no f@@ way to find this money let alone to send them to a country in the heartland of Russia who can very well be pro-Russian 5 years from now. There is ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE for the Western deal work for Ukrainians. I bet whatever you like on this!




    I suspect a major movement of refugees from Ukraine to Russia ,and Russian communist parties recruiting spetnaz veterans of afgan war to help defend the Russians in Ukraine. I don't think is a good idea for Russia to use its army not yet.. Ukranians will need to learn to fight for themselves and keep the pressure of the kiev Government. IF the Ukranian army evacuate one building ,then when they leave they take it back. Kiev junta do not have the money ,neither the strong support they need to keep a crackdown on civilians for a long time.
    Simply this is a war that the kiev coup have not a chance to win.. not even remotely.  They could clear all eastern Ukraine and that will not stop the unrest. The more civilians killed the more the Ukraine army will split and disband and the less likely the kiev junta will survive in power. My prediction is either they negotiate with Russia and accept the reforms or the kiev junta will end overthrow by their own pro EU people


    This is a dangerous gamble but if Russia act immediately might save from a catastrophic civil war.
    If they let things now unfold progressively like they always like to do might find themselves in a fully fledged, mega scale war that can last years and take decades to alter.
    Now you can still paralyze Kiev's government with a successful blitzkrieg. I know this is not the kind of warfare Russians specialize into but the stakes are high.
    If the condition settle on the ground Ukraine is no Georgia, is vast and populous....
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    Post  Vann7 Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:49 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:One thing is sure - the new Ukraine without Crimea and eastern regions will become a mortal enemy of Russia, yearning for revenge. If they manage to institute major economic reforms (as Poland did in early 1990s0, they'll become a fast developing country.



    What about Russia? It will be a miracle if Russia experiences 1% growth this year. The US will have a growth rate of 3% and 4% in 2015.

    That cannot happen.. Because Ukraine needs Russia help to develop their economy. Yes read that again. Without Russia help ,Ukraine goes bankrupt. Europe alone cannot help Ukraine. and this was told even by the Boxer that is planning to run with timoshenko.
    So no hope for Ukraine to become an enemy. Without Russia help ,Ukraine will become another soviet union collapse. If most of western Europe cannot help much to fix their own economies how can they help ukraine.? People really think that the Europe Union will magically turn the streets of Ukraine in Gold and solve all their problems but thats not true. Most of Europe economy is in disarray and Ukraine cannot compete with European products since what they produce is of inferior quality . On top that helping economically a nation that is on the
    middle of a civil war ,is not going to happen. Only way Ukraine economy can survive is that Kiev end their crackdown on protesters ,do the reforms and receive help of both.. The european union AND Russia.
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    Post  Vann7 Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:22 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:

    This is a dangerous gamble but if Russia act immediately might save from a catastrophic civil war.
    If they let things now unfold progressively like they always like to do might find themselves in a fully fledged, mega scale war that can last years and take decades to alter.
    Now you can still paralyze Kiev's government with a successful blitzkrieg. I know this is not the kind of warfare Russians specialize into but the stakes are high.
    If the condition settle on the ground Ukraine is no Georgia, is vast and populous....

    Thats what NATO wants.. to have Russia with tanks inside Ukraine.. thats when they will send of their private forces to give an Afganistan to Russia in Ukraine. On top if Russia invades ,it will be bad for RUssia economy and create a lot of Unrest in Russia. Russia neither can help alone eastern and south ukraine economy. Russia need PUBLIC SUPPORT.. for any action they do with their army. They had that support in Crimea.. 97%.. without firing a single shot took Crimea. But thats not the case of Ukraine.  IF Russia invade.. it will only encourage all western and central ukraine to unite against Russia ,while NATO giving weapons to them. Is a game. To destroy Russia economy and create a very negative world opinion against Russia..   So Russia official army needs to wait until the public support is there. Once the western and central ukrainians realize their situation is FAR WORSE now ,that it was with Yakunovych and that they have no money to eat. the will rebel against the kiev junta.. and fight them without Russia firing a single shot.  NATO is trying to deviate the crackdown on civilians in Ukraine by focusing on the so called secret Russian army creating the unrest in Ukraine.

    Best bet of RUssia is to keep sending humanitarian help ,and give light weapons to every Ukrainian that wants to split from Kiev.
    For use only in the case they are attacked and civilians being killed. But more important than anything Russia and its allies need media to fully cover the crackdown on civilians by Kiev. The Pressure kiev will receive world wide will force them to stop its illegal war and force for reforms and referendum.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:30 pm

    I had more in mind a huge special forces kind of thing.Go for the Kiev, overthrow the gov, take the Eastern provinces, establish order there and let the rest scream and cry.
    Nothing like a conventional operation. More like what Hitler did in Sweden or Norway or Czech. Of course is risky, but now (in this safer plan) if things go wrong can go REAL wrong.
    Even now they can provoke you endlessly or at least suppress anything and triumph.

    I know, I know, even if they regain control of the pro Russian oblasts the problem for them is far from over and the elections and the help from IMF stll looming but then again this is too much initiative to be given to the enemy. If you don't react now you should never react, can you take such decision? Better keep you destiny in your hands..
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    Post  TR1 Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:33 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:I am an atheist and not a Catholic. Pro-Christian in general.
    Russia, however, is not a western country. The West has come through the Renaissance and the Enlightenment. Russia is a weird mix of Byzantine absolutist tradition mixed with the political culture of the Golden Horde. One historian (I can't recall his name now) has classified Russia as a Turanic country - effectively an antithesis of civilization.

    EDIT: Ok, I got him
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feliks_Koneczny

    This guy is hilarious.

    No seriously.

    Grow up a little, live life, before spouting who is civilized and not.

    Pretty pathetic sucking up to America, but then again, this is Poland, so nothing new.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:39 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:This is a dangerous gamble but if Russia act immediately might save from a catastrophic civil war.
    If they let things now unfold progressively like they always like to do might find themselves in a fully fledged, mega scale war that can last years and take decades to alter.
    Now you can still paralyze Kiev's government with a successful blitzkrieg. I know this is not the kind of warfare Russians specialize into but the stakes are high.
    If the condition settle on the ground Ukraine is no Georgia, is vast and populous....

    It is the sort of war Russia specializes in, and unfortunately I'm incline to agree - the current military operation is almost certain to build-up into a wider civil-war, it's obvious to everyone. The second point is - Kiev shows absolutely no interest in deescelation (nor is it able to, it fears getting overthrown by its own hardliners).

    A massive, disproportionate conventional strike by Russia on mobilized units active in the fighting, and other combat-capable units (artillery, ballistic missile regiments) - will pretty much rob the Ukraine of any means by which to continue the war; while all the various anti-Russian militias and so on, with next to no combat experience - can be contained far more easily.
    In the extreme event, this can be combined with a decapitation strike on Kiev, to make sure that there is no leadership left to give orders. This will also stop the war, and prevent any more havoc in the south-east.

    BUT, and I want to STRESS - these options are in fact pretty much as bad as letting the current situation continue and develop into a civil war. Because then, further massive violence will be absolutely inevitable, ethnic cleansings, warlords arising, complete lawlessness and anarchy through large portions of the country - mostly western and central regions - but they are humans too don't forget.
    Especially if the government is decapitated, but even it isn't - it won't hold onto any authority for long; it won't be so much as the break-up of a country, as it turning into some Syria or Afghanistan in the heart of Europe. And no-one needs such a mess lying around.

    Coupled with the international reaction - this option should simply not be considered, unless there is the threat of genocide or something, or the situation really does grow out of all recognition and there is absolutely no alternative.

    There are several other alternatives that are better, all of them consist of waiting and delaying any action:

    a). Wait to see if the hardliners there are overthrown by a mass-uprising. The speed of events over the past week is uplifting in this regard; Kiev is very firmly under the putschists control but if a week and a half ago they all just started getting settled into their seats, started reigning in Pravyj Sektor, Turchinov was triumphently about to embark on a visit to Lithuania, etc... then now their control has slipped severely.
    It's quite possible that military units will start refusing to take orders, defecting, etc.. and with them will come more towns and cities, more police departments, etc...
    With this loss of confidence, perhaps someone with some sense will get a mandate from the more reasonable portion of the country in the central regions, but I admit that this isn't very likely.

    b). Wait to see if the Ukraine dissolves by itself - like above pretty much, same chain of events, but it just becomes clear, to any clear-minded political forces in the country - that it's preferable to dissolve the state USSR-style, than to delve deeper into a civil war.
    Federalization is also possible but less likely - if it gets to the stage where the current government is being pressed and overthrown - then I doubt any such political settlement will be an option.

    c). Wait to see if the hardliners there are overthrown by even worse hardliners. Unfortunately this is the most likely scenario. Yarosh and Pravyj Sektor will increasingly gain in popularity, opposing the 'corrupt, incompetent' government that is not even WILLING to fight for the Ukraine's own territories. Now the government has stepped up to the fight, but it may not be enough for Pravyj Sektor, and for a large portion of the population - and they may decide to organize a Bolshevik-style 2nd revolution; replacing the revolutionaries with more radical revolutionaries.
    Alternatively, Yarik can get elected in via the upcoming presidential election, although it's a big question whether the situation can wait that long.
    The south-east can harry this process along by all voting for him. What seems on the face of it - like the worst possible decision of all - not only recognizing the election but voting in it's most rabid ethno-nationalist - may actually end up saving the south-east in the end.
    If Pravyj Sektor takes power - a large amount of Kiev's and indeed the rest of the Ukraine's population will view him as bigger threat than Russia. The military and police will certainly not want to follow any orders from such a leader.
    It will lead to a collapse of the country and all government authority - but in a much less bloody way than if the Ukraine were attacked by Russian forces.

    d). Probably the best option - try and get the West onboard for a solution. They have no 'trust' towards Russia right now, as they claim - but at the end of the day it's not in their interests to see a civil war in Europe. Obama right now is trying to persuade Putin to help influence the east to 'simmer down'. That's already evidence of the fact. But Putin should insist on a balanced solution, a true transition government, federalization, and joint-peacekeeping forces if it proves neccessery. That the current government is non-viable and not viewed as legitimate, and that it doesn't know what it's doing or what sort of country it's leader - is something that can be proven to the EU and the US. They won't agree out of kindness, but out of mutual-interests - no-one needs a new Somalia, a new radical-right wing movement, a refugee crisis, a massive conventional war, etc...
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:07 pm

    Thank you for your time to describe your scenarios. I' m afraid in such times you should try to avoid the worst case scenario. I am not at all sure that Obama doesn't want to see a civil war in Europe. Don't bite their crap. They are not Europeans and they don't care in the same way that I will party like crazy if USA start a war with Canada...

    Problem is, federation is not gonna work. It will just prolong the problem. Just get your population and your lands and get the f@ck out of the mess stupid Ukrainian put themselves into. Don't get me wrong....in 10 years when RNB will be the reserve currency, NATO will be a thing of the past, Euro will be a common currency of....Germany and Austria and EU will have less substance than what ASEAN has now you can come back and collect the Western part as well but for now don't let 15 million Russians in the hand of the evil snakes of West.

    I never said about a disproportional operation based in firepower and fire density of the way Russian army specializes. I speak about a super accurate special operation to desrtoy command and control confuse the enemy, freeze the units on the ground and step directly for opponents capital to force the government flee. Just a political intervention not a military one. If in the process you have to destroy some radars or cut some resupply lines that's the maximum you can go into.

    You can try to do it even better just by returning the favor and through them the way they threw Yanukovich by bribing and helping some 100 MPs to make a counter coup. Or even try to organize a coup to restore Yanukovich or something as a transitional president.

    My principal aim is always the same. Make impossible for the transitional government and the key people supporting them (eg Timoschenko) to govern the country before the situation settle on the ground and their forces gain momentum and create hardship which will escalate passions. Forget Right Sector. Right Sector are the useful idiots and the perfect excuse. Get ride of the people who talk with Nuland, who talk with Rumpai, with Ban ki Mon with Rashmounsen. Dead or alive.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:55 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:Thank you for your time to describe your scenarios. I' m afraid in such times you should try to avoid the worst case scenario. I am not at all sure that Obama doesn't want to see a civil war in Europe. Don't bite their crap. They are not Europeans and they don't care in the same way that I will party like crazy if USA start a war with Canada...

    Problem is, federation is not gonna work. It will just prolong the problem. Just get your population and your lands and get the f@ck out of the mess stupid Ukrainian put themselves into. Don't get me wrong....in 10 years when RNB will be the reserve currency, NATO will be a thing of the past, Euro will be a common currency of....Germany and Austria and EU will have less substance than what ASEAN has now you can come back and collect the Western part as well but for now don't let 15 million Russians in the hand of the evil snakes of West.

    I never said about a disproportional operation based in firepower and fire density of the way Russian army specializes. I speak about a super accurate special operation to desrtoy command and control confuse the enemy, freeze the units on the ground and step directly for opponents capital to force the government flee. Just a political intervention not a military one. If in the process you have to destroy some radars or cut some resupply lines that's the maximum you can go into.

    You can try to do it even better just by returning the favor and through them the way they threw Yanukovich by bribing and helping some 100 MPs to make a counter coup. Or even try to organize a coup to restore Yanukovich or something as a transitional president.

    My principal aim is always the same. Make impossible for the transitional government and the key people supporting them (eg Timoschenko) to govern the country before the situation settle on the ground and their forces gain momentum and create hardship which will escalate passions. Forget Right Sector. Right Sector are the useful idiots and the perfect excuse. Get ride of the people who talk with Nuland, who talk with Rumpai, with Ban ki Mon with Rashmounsen. Dead or alive.

    For that you definately need some allies ready to take charge, and take command of any new government, quick organized take-overs, etc...
    And you need a lot of such allies.
    And in high places.
    With a good part of the local population willing to follow them.

    Basically how the final day of the Maidan revolution was - very quick take-over, happened in a few hours and everything was subordinated

    And Russia simply doesn't have those kind of levers in the Ukraine. There are some people in Kiev, at least one general from the general staff who has already made his way to the Crimea to ask Russia for assistance, etc... but these things take time to build - and given the local population's sentiment - the maximum effect we are looking at is a prolonging of the Ukrainian govenrment's disorientation.

    Because indeed that would be the only thing achieved. So fine - you take out the C4I, EW and jamming, give false orders, organise a quick coup in the capital with the help of a several-hundred strong local militia and special forces (although they would certainly run into huge trouble from crowds of people, but let's assume it works) - and then what?
    The government will flee to another part of the city, or different city - but it would carry on work, and with such a bold, reckless move; most structures will remain loyal to it; including the military - which after recovering from the confusion - would be just as capable of continuing the war as before and for that matter retaliating against the Russian attack.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:03 pm

    Yeah, might be, but this time I will simply take my oblasts and leave pretty much like I did in Crimea. Will they strike back once I settle my forces there or in public eye and uncovered?
    Then better prepare your anti-ICBM cause you will need them..
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    Post  Vann7 Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:35 pm

    I still really believe the best way for Russia is to arm the Ukrainian people looking to split from Kiev and fight for their future,since USA is arming Kiev.So Russia should give any trustful soldier that Russia can trust ,igla missiles and Kornets and anti tank misisles.. Kiev will be unable to hold for long a war . Neither think NATO will be a lot excited to try to repeat another Syria that Russia defeated them. If in Syria was hard to defeat Assad.. In Ukraine will be 100 times more harder with the Russian undercover special forces fighting to protect civilians.
    And play the game again of Syria but this time with Neo Nazis instead of Alqaeda.  that will do the job. and send undercover a thousand of veterans of afgan war ..preferible Ukranians. The key point here is that Time is NOT on the side of kiev.. their economy is bankrupt and if they are in the middle of a civil war ,they will not get any loan or money.  So Russia will cut all trade and all gas with Ukraine central government..and they will receive ZERO income and everyone will lose their jobs.and at the same time they can trade only with the new Republics..in the west.

    If Kiev insist with the war..then a special mission to neutralize Kiev leadership seems like a must. But Russia should make sure to have people loyal in the Ukranian army to take back Power as soon there is none. That will neutralize any attempt of NATO to invade Ukraine.


    The major problem i see for Russia is Belarus..and perhaps former soviet republics, that already opposed Federalization and Russia will need to consult with all its allies about any Russia action. So Thats what Russia needs to do.. Play same games of US.. and start arming all South and eastern parts of Ukraine. This will block totally Kiev economy. And the same time will stop NATO for using the naval port of odessa or helping from the black sea. If NATO joins the attack on Russians protesters then Russia can enter and fight back.

    Russia however needs to be careful of the Ukrainian navy ,that US do not give them Tomahawk missiles to use it against Sochi facilities for example.

    What Russia can't do is start sending tanks to Ukraine as they did in georgia..That will create unrest in Russia. need to keep a low profile and do all by proxy as much as possible.

    The real major failure i see in Russia..is not sending Yakunovych special trained undercover police to counter the maidan protesters burning buildings. To keep yakunovych in power.. also to give them control weapons.. like sound guns and armored water cannons and or any exotic non lethal chemical that cause irritation and bypass the oxygen mask that maidan use.. nano chemicals is the name i think. IF Russia for example had 100 martial arts fighters ,fully protected against attacks ,they could have been used to directly knockdown any maidan protester using violence.. and later police arrest them. Simply Russia failed to help Yakunovych stay in power and now is in a much difficult position.


    Last edited by Vann7 on Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  etaepsilonk Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:50 pm

    To vann7:

    "I still really believe the best way for Russia is to arm the Ukrainian people looking to split from Kiev and fight for their future,since USA is arming Kiev."

    Weapons are cheap, people are expensive.
    It is important not only to supply hardware, but also to ensure that folks would well know how to use it, so that they could stand their ground. And that would require training bases, somewhere in crimea, maybe  unshaven 



    "Kiev will be unable to hold for long a war ."

    Army-sure. But militias are another matter, and looks like Kiev is beginning to put a lot of emphasis on them.




    "Neither think NATO will be a lot excited to try to repeat another Syria that Russia defeated them."

    NATO loves wars, as long as they don't have to take part in them  Wink 



    "In Ukraine will be 100 times more harder with the Russian undercover special forces fighting to protect civilians."

    That's not really how SF works.



    "The key point here is that Time is NOT on the side of kiev.. their economy is bankrupt and if they are in the middle of a civil war ,they will not get any loan or money."

    Effects of bankruptcy are often overestimated. Even if Ukraine defaults, it may still not change it's political course.



    "The major problem i see for Russia is Belarus.. that already opposed Federalization and Russia will need to consult with all its allies
    about any Russia action."

    Lukashenko cannot be trusted, IMO.
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    Post  medo Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:55 pm

    Vann7 wrote:I still really believe the best way for Russia is to arm the Ukrainian people looking to split from Kiev and fight for their future,since USA is arming Kiev.So Russia should give any trustful soldier that Russia can trust ,igla missiles and Kornets and anti tank misisles.. Kiev will be unable to hold for long a war . Neither think NATO will be a lot excited to try to repeat another Syria that Russia defeated them. If in Syria was hard to defeat Assad.. In Ukraine will be 100 times more harder with the Russian undercover special forces fighting to protect civilians.
    And play the game again of Syria but this time with Neo Nazis instead of Alqaeda.  that will do the job. and send undercover a thousand of veterans of afgan war ..preferible Ukranians. The key point here is that Time is NOT on the side of kiev.. their economy is bankrupt and if they are in the middle of a civil war ,they will not get any loan or money.  So Russia will cut all trade and all gas with Ukraine central government..and at the same time they can trade only with the new Republics..

    The major problem i see for Russia is Belarus.. that already opposed Federalization and Russia will need to consult with all its allies
    about any Russia action. So Thats what Russia needs to do.. Play same games of US.. and start arming all South and eastern parts of Ukraine.
    This will block totally Kiev economy. And the same time will stop NATO for using the naval port of odessa or helping from the black sea.
    If NATO joins the attack on Russians protesters then Russia can enter and fight back.

    Not Kornet or newer Igla. They could send older Igla-1 (SA-16) and Konkurs-M, because Ukrainian army also have them from Soviet stocks and no one could say this is from Russia. Konkurs-M is more than enough for old T-64 tanks as Ukraine sell all T-80 tanks and majority of their T-72. It will depend on eastern Ukrainian army units. If they join to federalists, they will bring all needed from their own stocks. In urban battle RPGs, which they already have, will be good. A lot of barriers, covered with RPGs, will make Kiev advance really slow and with high price. I doubt Ukrainian army will fight heavy battles for Kiev junta. Right sector and national guard will, but army will not. Without army, they will not fight long. In federalists lines there are some Afghan veterans, who know, how to fight such battles.
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    Post  macedonian Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:59 pm

    Russia cannot win the battle of Ukraine with guns...it's all about hearts and minds...
    That's where Russia should concentrate its efforts.

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