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    Political, security and economic developments in Central Asia

    d_taddei2
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    Post  d_taddei2 Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:35 pm

    It's a small population I have been to Nukus and Aral sea area. This was due to a change in constitution. It will be over very quickly nothing to worry about.
    George1
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    Post  George1 Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:25 pm

    Kazakh lawmakers call for return of former name of Astana to capital

    https://tass.com/world/1501851

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    franco
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    Post  franco Mon Sep 05, 2022 1:34 pm

    Tokayev resigns his powers. Who will become the new President of Kazakhstan?

    MOSCOW, 2 Sep — RIA Novosti, Elena Popova. Early presidential elections will be held in Kazakhstan in the autumn. This was announced on September 1 by the current head of state Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who will take part in the campaign. At the same time, the winner will lead the republic for seven years without the right to run for a second term.

    Big changes

    Tokayev's speech was extremely unexpected for the population and the expert community. The powers of the president end only in two years, and before that there was not a single hint of a new electoral process. "For me, the interests of the state are above all. Therefore, I am ready to shorten the term and go to early elections," the head of Kazakhstan said in parliament.
    But the most important thing is something else: the term of government will be increased from five to seven years and at the same time re-election will be banned. The question in what sequence this will happen has caused controversy in the media. Many people thought that the amendment would come into force after the elections, which means that the new president will work for five years, and then he will be able to run for another seven—year period.
    However, Kazakh analysts do not agree with this formulation. "The current campaign will be held on a new principle. That is, the parliament will introduce Tokayev's proposal to the legislation before the elections, which now allows running for two terms of five years," political analyst Islam Kuraev explained to RIA Novosti.
    Kazakhstan is the first country in the post—Soviet space that introduces a one-term limit. Right now, neighboring Uzbekistan is preparing a constitutional reform that will allow President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to participate in elections for the third time. And last year, Emomali Rahmon won in Tajikistan for the fifth time.

    "Seven years is a sufficient period for the implementation of any ambitious program. On the other hand, limiting the presidential mandate to one term will ensure the maximum focus of the head of state on solving strategic tasks of national development. Life does not stand still, the dynamics of global processes and social development in the country is accelerating every day," Tokayev stressed.
    In addition, a new government will be formed in Kazakhstan in the first half of next year. "We will get a new composition of deputies representing the interests of broad groups of citizens. I am sure this will increase the efficiency of the maslikhats and the parliament. <...> This will allow the executive power to make more balanced decisions that meet the needs of the whole society," the country's leader explained.
    The Kremlin paid attention to the changes announced in Kazakhstan. "We want to see the future of our bilateral relations and the future of Kazakhstan only as a brilliant future. Kazakhstan is our great partner, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of our dialogue and alliance. We hope that the partnership will continue to develop, we want Kazakhstan to be a self—confident, stable country standing on its feet," said Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

    Prove legitimacy

    In winter, mass protests took place in Kazakhstan, which the media called "bloody January". It started with economic demands, then political ones were added: the resignation of the government and the dismissal of the first president of the country, Nursultan Nazarbayev. To stabilize the situation, Tokayev turned to the CSTO for help.
    Experts interviewed by RIA Novosti are convinced that it was this episode that prompted the Kazakh leader to hold early elections. "Tokayev wants to finally gain legitimacy after the well-known events at the beginning of the year. He needs to clarify which part of the citizens supports him. And of course, he hopes to win. Moreover, like any politician, he calculated a convenient moment that would allow him to win," said Alexander Gusev, head of the Center for Strategic Development of the CIS countries.

    The majority of residents of the republic support Tokayev, today there is no alternative to him, says Chingiz Lepsibayev, chairman of the Eurasian Expert Council Public Foundation. "There is a clear divide between the old Kazakhstan with its rules, which many did not like, and the new one," he believes. "If the president is re—elected, he will receive a mandate for very serious political reforms."
    Political scientist Islam Kuraev is also sure that Tokayev has no strong opponents. "Perhaps there are certain people, but they are more media and are not able to compete with the current president. They don't have such a large-scale level. Plus, the people are loyal to the current leader, since transformation processes began under him. The state raises social issues, the authorities pay a lot of attention to citizens. This will play an important role in the voting," the expert added.
    One way or another, such initiatives will open a new milestone in the policy of the republic. It doesn't matter if Tokayev wins, but early elections will have a positive impact on the democratic principles developing inside the country. Experts are convinced: this is the right decision and it remains only to observe how events will develop.

    https://ria.ru/20220902/kazakhstan-1813822141.html?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=infox.sg&utm_campaign=exchange
    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:29 pm

    This sounds like the retarded nonsense rule the US has pushed onto countries like the Philippines. A single term President will not be able to do much, and you will see that 7 year term be torpedoed over and over with allegations of fraud, corruption, or whatever, so those 7 years in power will likely be 4 or less.

    Tokayev is compromised period. And Russia cutting them Kazakh oil exports probably pushed him over the edge to do this.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Sep 05, 2022 10:31 pm

    The issue is that Nazarbayev's assets - and that's a significant portion of Kazakhstan's wealth - is currently frozen in London and several other places such as Switzerland or whatever.
    And those countries won't unfreeze it until they know that Tokayev is 'not walking back on reforms' or whatever the parlance

    I don't agree that Tokayev is compromised. He knows perfectly well that Kazakhstan is surrounded by Russia and China, and highly dependent on them - and accordingly these two countries have been his priority vectors throughout his career in politics.

    But much of Kazakhstan's elite is compromised and Tokayev has yet to cement his position. He would have been overthrown as recently as this January were it not for the CSTO.
    With the beginning of the war, Kazakh's elite cried out about them being dragged down together with Russia, about sanctions and asset freezes and whatever.

    So Tokayev has to perform a delicate balancing act.
    It will get more interesting if he is re-elected with a decisive mandate and the EU/US/Great Britain find a reason to withhold Nazarbayev's stolen money from Kazakhstan.

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    Broski
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    Post  Broski Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:00 am

    flamming_python wrote:The issue is that Nazarbayev's assets - and that's a significant portion of Kazakhstan's wealth - is currently frozen in London and several other places such as Switzerland or whatever.
    God, Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Oligarchs are traitorous and braindead. No matter how many times the collective west pulls this "freezing of assets" trick there's still another group of suckers lined up to give Uncle Scam and his minion states their ill-gotten wealth, mostly stolen from their native countries.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:42 am

    Yesterday the news circulated, still awaiting official confirmation, regarding Kazakhstan's desire to leave the CSTO (and possibly also the euroasiatic union) starting from 2023.

    In January of this year it was Kazakhstan that appealed to article 4 of the CSTO, the one on mutual aid.

    The capital Nur-Sultan and the most important cities of the country were in flames and in the hands of the rioters.  Officers and soldiers were massacred in the square.  And the Kazakh government asked for help from the CSTO allies, which decided to intervene.

    Even Armenia supported the request and sent its troops.


    The updated version of the following article reported that the kazach government negates the declaration of leaving CSTO but hints that the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan is not the best

    https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/kazakhstan-suspend-membership-russia-led-csto/

    UPDATE: Kazakhstan denies it will suspend its membership in Russia-led CSTO but will ‘not bow at Russian feet’

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:28 pm

    The west has the asset that every rotten rich f*cker that emerges from developing countries aligns with it because he thinks that
    it is the source of even more wealth. It is the religion of Mammon and the high priests and "Mecca" are in the west. Look around
    the world, every freaking elite is practically fellating the clowns in Washington. They view their own countries and people with
    contempt. Ukraine is an especially extreme example of this as we see with the massive corruption and throwing of conscripts to
    their deaths in human wave attacks.

    People think that it is some sort of soft power and undercover influence that gives the NATzO west this sort of advantage. But that
    is not true, it is due to the fact that rotten locals who have the money and power are volunteering. Kazakhstan has transformed
    itself into another Ukraine with a fake identity and pandering to its idols in the west. Ideally Russia should let these losers eat the
    shit they so desperately crave, but in the real world it cannot have another NATzO military camp on its borders. So it appears that
    there will be another military conflict in the near term in Central Asia.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:44 pm

    Kazakhstan is turning from an ally of Russia into a hostile country.


    https://t.me/vzoreast/237




    The authorities of Kazakhstan refused to trade with Russia in circumvention of the sanctions, despite the requests of Moscow.  All transactions of Kazakh companies with the Russian Federation, which could potentially violate the sanctions regime, are now under the control of the US and EU authorities - "regular consultations are underway" with them, said Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi.

    The statement came after Anjali Kaur, a representative of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), said in the US Congress that the goal of America's policy in Central Asia is to separate the economies of the countries of the region from Russia.

    Kazakhstan's support for anti-Russian sanctions and full adherence to US policy is also confirmed by the intention of the party to withdraw from the CSTO, which Tokayev spoke about during his recent visit to Sochi.

    In October, the head of British intelligence MI6, Richard Moore, and then the new Prime Minister of Great Britain, Liz Truss, are expected to be consulted in Kazakhstan.

    Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is destroying everything that his predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev had a hand in.  Including the idea of ​​building a single Eurasian space.  In fact, there is no point in negotiating anything with such a person.  That's probably why Tokayev is one of two presidents Russian leader Vladimir Putin won't meet at the SCO summit in Samarkand.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Sep 18, 2022 5:35 pm

    Russia should partition Kazakhstan to remove the northern half. This land is not any ancient Kazakh land. The Kazakhs moved
    into their current territory during the 1500s and 1600s which coincides with Slavic settlements in the north. Kazakhstan is
    the same Bolshevik perversion as Ukraine. It is just another Rwanda-Burundi with contrived borders that do not reflect history
    or ethnic distribution. Then we have the consequences.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:32 pm

    kvs wrote:Russia should partition Kazakhstan to remove the northern half.   This land is not any ancient Kazakh land.   The Kazakhs moved
    into their current territory during the 1500s and 1600s which coincides with Slavic settlements in the north.    Kazakhstan is
    the same Bolshevik perversion as Ukraine.   It is just another Rwanda-Burundi with contrived borders that do not reflect history
    or ethnic distribution.   Then we have the consequences.

    Unfortunately Baikonur is in the south..., Closer to Uzbekistan than to Russia

    I know that Russia built another cosmodrome in the far east, but Baikonur made the history of Soviet and russian space exploration
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:55 pm

    Take all of it back. Erase the artificial borders. Most of the conflicts would simply stop after that.

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    PhSt
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    Post  PhSt Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:03 pm

    Hole wrote:Take all of it back. Erase the artificial borders. Most of the conflicts would simply stop after that.

    This is perhaps the best action Russia should undertake. The Bolsheviks have given away way too much Russian territory to ungrateful minorities. Perhaps Russia should have just herded them into "Reserves" just like what the Anglos did to the native aboriginals
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:44 pm

    PhSt wrote:
    Hole wrote:Take all of it back. Erase the artificial borders. Most of the conflicts would simply stop after that.

    This is perhaps the best action Russia should undertake. The Bolsheviks have given away way too much Russian territory to ungrateful minorities. Perhaps Russia should have just herded them into "Reserves" just like what the Anglos did to the native aboriginals

    There was no need for that. The various aboriginal ethnic groups in the Russian Federation have reasonable territorial representation and
    are not acting like verminous scum towards Russia. It is the official republics concocted by the Bolsheviks and Stalin (who drew up the borders
    in Central Asia) that are the source of the problem. Belarus is a fine example of the insanity. Before Lukashenko's nuts were exposed to
    the open flames of colour revolution, he was acting like the leaders in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Spewing all sorts of revisionist history and
    other BS.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:17 pm

    kvs wrote:
    PhSt wrote:
    Hole wrote:Take all of it back. Erase the artificial borders. Most of the conflicts would simply stop after that.

    This is perhaps the best action Russia should undertake. The Bolsheviks have given away way too much Russian territory to ungrateful minorities. Perhaps Russia should have just herded them into "Reserves" just like what the Anglos did to the native aboriginals

    There was no need for that.  The various aboriginal ethnic groups in the Russian Federation have reasonable territorial representation and
    are not acting like verminous scum towards Russia.   It is the official republics concocted by the Bolsheviks and Stalin (who drew up the borders
    in Central Asia) that are the source of the problem.   Belarus is a fine example of the insanity.   Before Lukashenko's nuts were exposed to
    the open flames of colour revolution, he was acting like the leaders in Ukraine and Kazakhstan.   Spewing all sorts of revisionist history and
    other BS.  

    well probably the soviets have been also the root of the problem im the Baltic States as well.
    It is highly likely that before WW1 and the russian Revolution the people in the baltics were not that opposed to Russian rule...


    Last edited by Rodion_Romanovic on Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    ATLASCUB
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    Post  ATLASCUB Sun Sep 18, 2022 10:22 pm

    You give your kid the keys to a house no strings attached, then you find out your kid is bringing up all sort of unsavory folks to your once home and causing mayhem.

    You ask your kid to tone it down and moderate. Your kid says fvck you, I do what I want in my home, with my life and I mingle with whomever I wish.

    You ask your kid for the house keys back. The kid refuses to hand them over, and is even willing to fight you for it.

    -------------  Russia in a nutshell with most of its ex-Soviet Republics. Lesson of the tale, don't give away any keys, to anyone, period. Any thinking, grown adult knows this? Why didn't the Kremlin in 1991? Ohh but they did know... and still did it anyway.

    Trying to rebuild an empire was always infinitely more hard than destroying it by the stroke of a pen. By the stroke of pen - unheard of. Not even a fight.

    One of the main architects of such destruction recently passed away in peace, revered by Russia's enemies as a good, model Russian. And in the halls of power of the current Russian elite, while they won't admit it, they owe him way too much of their new found wealth and position to him, so while it's politically expedient to stay away from the man for sheeple optics, they owe him more than you can imagine, and they know. That's why he never hanged from a pole on Kremlin square, and passed away in peace.

    So if the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the craft of a selfish elite, which is causing all sorts of pain and conflict to the citizens of the former, in the form of conflict, misery and the like, what does that say about that elite? Not enough negative adjectives could suffice. And any fool who thinks the current ones (former and new) are different just because of a 20-30 year span is more than just fooling himself... purposefully, knowingly, out of a sense of hopelessness that creates a void inside the soul. But that is the reality, don't make up a illusion yourself over it. Their nature will never change, it's the human condition.

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    PhSt
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    Post  PhSt Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:06 pm

    kvs wrote:There was no need for that.  The various aboriginal ethnic groups in the Russian Federation have reasonable territorial representation and
    are not acting like verminous scum towards Russia.   It is the official republics concocted by the Bolsheviks and Stalin (who drew up the borders
    in Central Asia) that are the source of the problem.   Belarus is a fine example of the insanity.   Before Lukashenko's nuts were exposed to
    the open flames of colour revolution, he was acting like the leaders in Ukraine and Kazakhstan.   Spewing all sorts of revisionist history and
    other BS.  


    To clarify my statement, I am referring to the Soviet republics like the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, etc.

    In the case of Kazakhstan, I don't think that it even deserves to be its own republic, prior to the SU's dissolution, its probably just comparable to like the Sakha autonomous republic, but the clueless soviet leadership gave them way too much territory. The Soviet leadership should have at least abrogated the right of member republics to secede.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:13 pm

    From the telegram channel:
    "NEWS: Ukraine, Russia, Donbass":
    (I believe it is sputnik renamed to avoid European censure)

    Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wrote an article in Politico

    The President of Kazakhstan noted that he remains a supporter of the idea of globalism, since, in his opinion, it was globalism that contributed to universal prosperity in previous years.

    The plan for building a New Kazakhstan lies in the decentralization of power and "ensuring equal opportunities for every citizen."

    "We must learn the right lessons from recent crises and strive to renew and strengthen our current path, and not abandon it in favor of a narrow-minded, self-oriented approach," Tokayev concluded.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/kazakh-president-we-must-flip-the-switch-of-reform/

    Kazakhstan’s president: We’re moving full speed ahead toward reform
    Our country must shun a close-minded, inward-looking strategy, and look toward the future.


    In a state-of-the-nation address earlier this month, I announced I would seek a democratic mandate to implement a vision for a fairer, more open Kazakhstan. And as my country heads to the polls in the coming months, I believe we must resist the instinct to turn inward amid these turbulent global times.

    There is simply no viable alternative to globalization, interdependence and the international rules-based order. And while efforts to reduce dependence and improve resilience are wholly understandable — and in many cases sensible — there’s a delicate line to tread, as this mustn’t lead to a broader reversal of all that has enabled global prosperity in past decades.

    (...)

    Interesting that he speaks about importance of globalism, when globalism is dying...
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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:24 pm

    Russians are in absolute majority in most Russian federal regions, except (from memory) Tatarstan, Bashkiria, some Siberian regions/republics and some of the southern Caucasus republics.

    Thing is, Tatarstan is super wealthy and has no reason to change that. Bashkiria is doing fine.

    The non-Russian majority Siberian regions are extremely sparsely populated and wouldn't benefit from any sort of ethnocentric agitation towards Russians and Moscow (the Russians are basically the sole reason there even are cities and industries there, work, schools, etc). Some of them enjoy a GDP/C on par with Singapore (eg KMAO), thanks to the Russians.

    The Caucasus has shown that it rapidly spirals towards oblivion if Moscow is taken out of the equation, so they're not too keen on any of it anymore either. Cf Chechnya and Dagestan, to some extent Ingushetia. Then you have the predominantly Christian outliers down there too, Ossetians mainly, who certainly do not want Moscows moderation of the Caucasus to go away...


    Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:43 pm; edited 4 times in total

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    Post  sundoesntrise Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:31 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:From the telegram channel:
    "NEWS: Ukraine, Russia, Donbass":
    (I believe it is sputnik renamed to avoid European censure)

    Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wrote an article in Politico

    The President of Kazakhstan noted that he remains a supporter of the idea of globalism, since, in his opinion, it was globalism that contributed to universal prosperity in previous years.

    The plan for building a New Kazakhstan lies in the decentralization of power and "ensuring equal opportunities for every citizen."

    "We must learn the right lessons from recent crises and strive to renew and strengthen our current path, and not abandon it in favor of a narrow-minded, self-oriented approach," Tokayev concluded.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/kazakh-president-we-must-flip-the-switch-of-reform/

    Kazakhstan’s president: We’re moving full speed ahead toward reform
    Our country must shun a close-minded, inward-looking strategy, and look toward the future.


    In a state-of-the-nation address earlier this month, I announced I would seek a democratic mandate to implement a vision for a fairer, more open Kazakhstan. And as my country heads to the polls in the coming months, I believe we must resist the instinct to turn inward amid these turbulent global times.

    There is simply no viable alternative to globalization, interdependence and the international rules-based order. And while efforts to reduce dependence and improve resilience are wholly understandable — and in many cases sensible — there’s a delicate line to tread, as this mustn’t lead to a broader reversal of all that has enabled global prosperity in past decades.

    (...)

    Interesting that he speaks about importance of globalism, when globalism is dying...


    Wooooow he actually said that there 'isn't an alternative to the international rules based order'?

    Not even trying to cover up his submission to his new master.. Not even the Chinese (with whom he is on very good terms) will tolerate this type of shenanigans - and they are pretty businessminded people.

    Big mistake not to leave a rather large CSTO/Russian contingent in the country after January 2022. This is near biblical levels of treachery.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:49 pm

    Indeed

    But I still say give him the benefit of the doubt (just about), until he holds the elections and asks to repatriate Nazarbayev's money. Because the West has it, and that's a lot of Kazakhstan's assets.

    We don't actually know what agreements and relations he currently has with Putin. Anything in Telegram is just speculation.

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    Post  TMA1 Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:10 pm

    If he does turn out to be a rat he kinda deserves some polonium tea. Anyone using "international 'rules based' order" unironically is a neocon/neolib devil.

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    Post  GarryB Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:43 am

    The amusing thing is that it is the west that flouts international rules, not Russia or China...

    The concept of a world under the rule of the US or monopolar is about everyone being subserviant to the US and the US able to do as they please... you know... the last 32 odd years of history.

    A rules based ordered planet is about each country being independent and not subservient to any other with everyone having to follow the same rules... which is obviously bad for the US and Israel and most colonial countries like half the west.

    Ironically murder by Polonium or for that matter Novachok is a bit like Russian Roulette... it is a British invention made up to discredit the Russians or Soviets.

    Not that the Soviets don't kill... but ricin seems to be their weapon of choice when they choose to do that.

    (Note the primary Russian/Soviet revolver would be the Nagant revolver which has 7 cylinders and not 6, and also its gas seal design means the cylinder does not spin freely like a roulette wheel... the first ever reference to Russian Roulette is in a British novel and has no foundation in reality as being a genuine thing... a bit like the French having nothing to do with American French Fries... which are just hot chips.)


    Last edited by GarryB on Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:47 am; edited 1 time in total

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    ATLASCUB
    ATLASCUB


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    Post  ATLASCUB Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:45 am

    "rules-based order"... ohh no...

    Scholz mini. lol1

    You can't make this shit up.

    House of Cards.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:47 pm

    Comment from "the saker" concerning Armenia, CSTO,
    Tokaev and Pashinian...


    In the meantime, Armenia has threatened to leave the The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a decision which, if that happens, I will fully support and celebrate! The CSTO needs a good cleaning, to put it mildly. Russia saved the sorry asses of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian, and yet all three are still playing that wannabe smart-ass policy of “multi-vectorness” which, in plain English, means “we want Russia to protect us while we sell out to the USA”. The truth is that Russia has much better partners than most of her immediate neighbors and the likes of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian need to learn things the hard way. That is what Armenia is experiencing right how. Maybe Lukashenko and Tokaev will get the message and learn the lesson. As for Armenia, it will just get what it deserves…

    In sharp contrast to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and even Turkey have been much more responsible partners for Russia (though Turkey also needs a “reminder” from time to time to behave). And since now the Armenians have “security guarantees” from no less than Pelosi (!) they can now sleep in peace with no need for Russian protection, right? :-)

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