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    Political, security and economic developments in Central Asia

    PhSt
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    Post  PhSt Thu May 23, 2024 1:25 am


    if Russia and Central Asian countries form back into some sort of USSR type state, then demands will start to appear in time from some of Russia's internal republics to join said union as equal members themselves, rather than as part of Russia.

    There doesn't have to be a USSR type entity, there is already the Russian Federation, but since Kazakhstan is too big, (thanks to gifting a large portion of Russia proper to the fake/ experimental country called Kazakhstan), the territory needs to be broken down to several oblasts, okrugs, and republics.


    The best would be to go back to the something more similar to the subdivision from before 1917. Fully included in the russian federation and split in various oblasts/ regions/ governatorates.

    The local language should be maintained in addition to Russian (as they are maintained in bashkiria or Tatarstan), but they should not have other special privileges or advantages in comparison to other russian oblasts. Furthermore the forced kazakization campaign in what is now the north of Kazakhstan should be reverted.

    This is a sound idea, over time, there needs to be both a subtle and forced Russification of the entire population, this is the only solution to make the future generations in these territories to see themselves as Russians.

    A good example of a successful "Forced" assimilation of inhabitants in a conquered territory is the Muslim conquest in the year 600s. Before the Arabs burst out of Arabia proper, many territories in the present Arab world didn't speak Arabic before they were conquered by the Arab Muslims. The term "Arabization" refers to this process.

    Anyways, the Re-Russification of former Soviet territories shouldn't be seen as brazen as the Arab conquests, since former soviet territories were once part of the Russian empire, so Russia is simply taking back what rightfully belongs to it.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Thu May 23, 2024 2:40 am

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:the creation of those soviet states did not make sense.
    And the idiocies done in the 1990s were even worst than those

    But the same would be for modern Russia also the creation of a USSR type union. Either just a vague combination of economic and military treaties (Euroasian economic Union, CSTO) or nothing at all. Russia must not repeat the same mistake.

    The later is preferable; a loose security alliance against terrorism and a customs union/free trade zone/visa-free arrangement/common labour space.

    Perhaps in time a better format can arise. Which is why I think the Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan news is important, assuming that it's not premature. Kazakhstan of course is a member of the Eurasian economic union with Russia.
    Uzbekistan isn't, but in recent years it has been rapidly upgrading co-operation with Russia - a rapid growth of Uzbek students to Russian universities, an expansion of Russian-language learning in schools in Uzbekistan, and involvement of Russia in several large industrial projects in Uzbekistan. So this union state project could be a way for Uzbekistan to trial out Eurasian economic union membership too. Of course it gives both more leverage vis-a-vis Moscow than by themselves alone, but you can't fault them for that.

    There are also other projects going on. China building a railroad through Kyrgyzstan and into Uzbekistan.
    As well as a few projects involving Azerbaijan with industrial developments with Central Asia, together with Azerbaijan's projects with Iran for the North-South transport corridor. Azerbaijan being BTW a country that is quite rapidly adopting a pro-Russian and pro-BRICS position in the world and has recently championed seperatism in French New Caledonia among other things.
    Azerbaijan is another candidate for future Eurasian economic union membership.

    And none of these integration projects are Anglo-Turkish in origin. Although Turkey and all these states are members of the Turkic Union, these projects seem to be more linked to Moscow and Tehran and Beijing than to the activities of the Turkic Union.

    The best would be to go back to the something more similar to the subdivision from before 1917. Fully included in the russian federation and split in various oblasts/ regions/ governatorates.

    That shit's going to go down about as well in Central Asia as Tsarist Russia's announcement of conscription there back in 1916.

    The local language should be maintained in addition to Russian (as they are maintained in bashkiria or Tatarstan), but they should not have other special privileges or advantages in comparison to other russian oblasts. Furthermore the forced kazakization campaign in what is now the north of Kazakhstan should be reverted.

    You really can't turn back the clock in this sort of regard except through an exceptional and sustained long-term campaign of violence. And even then it's a dubious proposition.

    Ask the Israelis about how they're doing with that.

    If they have to be back they should be back as a bunch of oblasts and some of the territories also assigned to existing oblasts, like Orenburg.

    Kazakhstan has currently 17 regions, some of the northern ones can be attached to existing russian oblasts, other combined among themselves, since there are way too many and the country is mostly desert.

    For Uzbekistan similar consideration could be done (preservation of language and culture, but not of state borders and internal subdivisions), even if it is a smaller but much more densely populated country.

    PhSt wrote:There doesn't have to be a USSR type entity, there is already the Russian Federation, but since Kazakhstan is too big, (thanks to gifting a large portion of Russia proper to the fake/ experimental country called Kazakhstan), the territory needs to be broken down to several oblasts, okrugs, and republics.


    Or ask the French how that went in Algeria. They after all did not regard Algeria as some sort of colony, but as an integral part of France, split into the same provinces and so on. Did it prevent Algerian grievances and the Algerian war of independence?

    Actually Russia managing directly the central Asian area could also prevent conflicts in the area between ex societ countries (like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).

    They'll have to learn how to do that themselves.

    The only important thing, if Russia gets those lands back, would be not to subsidize them at a cost for russian regions, but to normally invest in them as they plan to do for each russian region without any advantages (but also without a french colonial approach).

    Effectively you'll be massively subsidizing them, as they'll be far behind Russian regions. And always were.

    But if instead these territories are not part of Russia, but are part of countries friendly to Russia and which have elites with ties to Russia and populations with relatives in Russia - then you don't have to subsidize them, at least not directly, and what's more these countries have the possibility of leveraging economic ties with not only Russia, but also China, Iran, India, Turkey and other countries to have a chance at becoming economic engines themselves one day, without having to rely on subsidies from other countries.
    In fact Central Asian economies are already growing rapidly. Granted, a lot of that is linked to Russia and comes from remittances from workers in Russia, but their own economic expansion is going quickly too.

    For Russia it would be also advantageous to have another large border with China (In the north west of china instead of just in the north east of china) and would ease rail connections between Beijing and Moscow.

    And possibly Russia could also at least partially revert the environmental disaster of what was the Aral sea.

    You forgot to ask why Russia would want those lands back?

    I mean Tsarist Russia first colonized them for a multitude of reasons but it can basically be boiled down to good agricultural land in Kazakhstan and competition with Britain for what concerns the rest of Central Asia.

    Fast-forward to today and Russia already has more agricultural land than it knows what to do with owing to better agricultural technologies and a warming climate that have opened up more of Russia's territory to cultivation. Russia also doesn't have the rapidly expanding population to get to work on all this fallow land. In fact some years ago it was in talks with Uzbekistan on importing Uzbek agricultural workers to cultivate empty Russian land. Central Asia is more likely to colonize Russia these days than the other way round.
    While Britain is not in India anymore, so there's no rush due to that either.

    PhSt wrote:This is a sound idea, over time, there needs to be both a subtle and forced Russification of the entire population, this is the only solution to make the future generations in these territories to see themselves as Russians.

    A good example of a successful "Forced" assimilation of inhabitants in a conquered territory is the Muslim conquest in the year 600s. Before the Arabs burst out of Arabia proper, many territories in the present Arab world didn't speak Arabic before they were conquered by the Arab Muslims. The term "Arabization" refers to this process.

    Anyways, the Re-Russification of former Soviet territories shouldn't be seen as brazen as the Arab conquests, since former soviet territories were once part of the Russian empire, so Russia is simply taking back what rightfully belongs to it.

    But they're not Russians and won't see themselves as such. And you'll just be inviting more problems. Essentially turning Russia into a bi-national state, assuming for a moment that the Central Asians were to go along with this whole idea for a moment. And yes such states can achieve stability for some time but again I doubt Moscow will want to risk anything like that.
    And pretending that everybody's Russian just because everyone speaks Russian is a policy that reminds one again of France, where they conduct censuses that make no mention of ethnicity or religion because apparently, everyone's just the same Frenchman if they have French citizenship. And what, has such a policy automatically led to a cohesive society in France?

    I actually don't see a bi-national state of Slavs and Central Asians as something entirely unfeasible. Given the level of immigration into Russia at the moment from Central Asia maybe that's where we'll end up anyway, even without any territorial acquisition.
    PhSt
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    Post  PhSt Thu May 23, 2024 3:09 am


    Or ask the French how that went in Algeria. They after all did not regard Algeria as some sort of colony, but as an integral part of France, split into the same provinces and so on. Did it prevent Algerian grievances and the Algerian war of independence?

    Most likely because the French didn't have enough time, resources, and political will to squeeze them enough for full Franconization. Also, Geography separates Algeria from France via the Mediterranean.

    You seem to conveniently ignore my example of a successful assimilation model, which is Arabization. Egyptians, Algerians, Moroccans, etc, are ethnically not Arabs, but consider themselves Arabs anyway because they speak Arab, have Arabic names, and follow the same religion. As in Russia's case, the future Russification of Russian central Asia needs to involve the conversion of the population to the Russian orthodox church.



    Effectively you'll be massively subsidizing them, as they'll be far behind Russian regions. And always were.

    This is a defeatist attitude, it haven't happened yet but you are already thinking of the worst outcome. Once Russia has complete dominance of the region, Russia can still have the last option which is to sterilize those who refuse to submit themselves to Russification, this will prevent the traitors from reproducing.



    But they're not Russians and won't see themselves as such.

    Do the Chechens consider themselves as Russians? do the Dagestanis? how about the Buryats? the Kamylks? etc. Look, Russia already has a sizeable minority, if for example, Kazakhstan and Ukraine weren't partitioned away from Russia, we won't even have this discussion in the first place because people in those territories will consider themselves as part of Russia and therefore will see themselves as Russians.

    Ultimately, Russia will have to set up a national plan to gradually increase its ethnic Russian population while slowly degrading and suppressing the growth of its ethnic minorities. (this includes populations of future territories like all of Central Asia and the South Caucasus)
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Thu May 23, 2024 4:09 am

    I don't trust Kazakhstan at all. Or Uzbekistan for that matter. In this instance, Russia will have to watch from a distance and observe. If it becomes a problem for them, then they will have to act. Especially since Muslims like to use other Muslims against a country and in this instance, Russia has a lot of Muslim regions.

    Anyway, we shall see. Everything Kazakhstan has done since Russia saved its ass, is been working against Russia.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu May 23, 2024 5:26 am

    Forced sterilization....man phst the third Reich and you would have gotten a long great.

    And are we talking about the annexation of Kazakhstan now?....

    They will never agree to join the Russian federation, the hypocrisy on this forum is legendary all love to blast the west which is fine and all but then you want the Russians to do the exact same stuff to increase their own power and influence.

    Laughable


    Last edited by SeigSoloyvov on Thu May 23, 2024 5:32 am; edited 1 time in total

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    higurashihougi
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    Post  higurashihougi Thu May 23, 2024 5:27 am

    PhSt wrote:Do the Chechens consider themselves as Russians? do the Dagestanis? how about the Buryats? the Kamylks? etc. Look, Russia already has a sizeable minority, if for example, Kazakhstan and Ukraine weren't partitioned away from Russia, we won't even have this discussion in the first place because people in those territories will consider themselves as part of Russia and therefore will see themselves as Russians.

    No.

    They are not Russians.

    They are members of the common community and brotherhood in the Russian Federation with total equality in rights and obligations, tied together by brotherhood and mutual respects. But they are not Russians.

    It is human rights of everybody to be acknowledged in the respect of ethnic identity and cultural identity. Why is your identity more important than others ? Is that fair ?

    You and your brother are total different people, each of you has independent thinking, lifestyle and personality. You cannot force your brother to think and live the same as you. Even identical twin siblings have genetic and phenotypic differences.

    Is that hard to understand ?

    I once say that I respect the country of Russia as a civilized country who respect the dignity and identity of all nations and so, I hope that we will not taint the image of Russia by expressing our own degenerated, imperialist, racist viewpoint but label it as "for Russia". It is disgusting and a is a severe insult to Russia.

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    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Thu May 23, 2024 8:24 am

    higurashihougi wrote:
    PhSt wrote:Do the Chechens consider themselves as Russians? do the Dagestanis? how about the Buryats? the Kamylks? etc. Look, Russia already has a sizeable minority, if for example, Kazakhstan and Ukraine weren't partitioned away from Russia, we won't even have this discussion in the first place because people in those territories will consider themselves as part of Russia and therefore will see themselves as Russians.

    No.

    They are not Russians.

    They are members of the common community and brotherhood in the Russian Federation with total equality in rights and obligations, tied together by brotherhood and mutual respects. But they are not Russians.

    It is human rights of everybody to be acknowledged in the respect of ethnic identity and cultural identity. Why is your identity more important than others ? Is that fair ?

    You and your brother are total different people, each of you has independent thinking, lifestyle and personality. You cannot force your brother to think and live the same as you. Even identical twin siblings have genetic and phenotypic differences.

    Is that hard to understand ?

    I once say that I respect the country of Russia as a civilized country who respect the dignity and identity of all nations and so, I hope that we will not taint the image of Russia by expressing our own degenerated, imperialist, racist viewpoint but label it as "for Russia". It is disgusting and a is a severe insult to Russia.

    The problem here was just the mentioning of sterilising people that is completely absurd.

    What Russia should do is helping and incentivesing ethnic Russians (also in current russian regions) so that they make more babies, but that is another matter.

    By the way you are wrong on a very important point:  a Buryat, Chechen, Tatar, etc  born and living in the Russian federation etc IS a Russian citizen (Россиянин /rossiyanin). He is not "Russkii" (ethnic Russian).

    A typical person from Kiev, Kharkov or Odessa is Russkiy, but not Rossiyanin (yet).

    A typical person from Moscow is both Russkiy and Rossiyanin.
    In Russia there is a big difference between the words "Russkii" (ethnic and culturally russian) and Rossiyanin/rossiyskiy (russian but in another sense)


    A good summary found in the web:

    What's the difference between русский, россиянин and российский?

    These three terms are related to Russia and Russian identity, but they have slightly different meanings:

    Русский (russkiy): This term typically refers to ethnic Russians, i.e., people who belong to the Russian ethnic group. It can also be used to describe things that are specifically Russian in nature, such as the Russian language, culture, or traditions.
    Россиянин (rossiyanin): This term is more inclusive and generally refers to citizens of the Russian Federation, regardless of their ethnicity. So, while русский refers specifically to ethnic Russians, россиянин can refer to anyone who is a citizen of Russia, regardless of their ethnic background.
    Российский (rossiyskiy): This term is an adjective that is used to describe things that are related to Russia as a country. For example, российский президент (rossiyskiy prezident) means "Russian president," referring to the president of Russia. It can also refer to things that are of or from Russia in a broader sense.

    So, in summary:
    - Русский (russkiy): Ethnic Russian or pertaining to the Russian ethnic group.
    - Россиянин (rossiyanin): Citizen of the Russian Federation, regardless of ethnicity.
    - Российский (rossiyskiy): Pertaining to Russia as a country or something originating from Russia

    a person living in central Asia, once it will become again part of Russia will become Rossiyanin, not Russkiy. They will learn to be partially bicultural, and bilingual, maintaining both their original language and culture and that of the russian federation, without cancelling them, as long as the original culture will not want the creation of an islamic state with Sharia laws or go back to the old times and sell women in exchange of pelts (which was happening when imperial Russia colonised central Asia).

    Furthermore it will not be a colonisation in the negative sense as Russia is directly there. It is not a faraway land, Russia is west, north and east (after Chna) of central Asia.

    What must not happen is one of the two extremes: neither french style colonisation, nor USSR style subsidies.

    Those new oblasts should be given infrastructures and work opportunities, partially like what happened in soviet times, but without excessive subsidies.
    Anyway railway and highways projects between Russia and China passing from central Asia will also bring money. Furthermore Kazakhstan is mostly desert and rich in natural resources, so it should not need too much external help.

    It is either slowly bringing back them into Russia or wait until they are annexed by china or turned into Russian enemies by the west.

    Not every country can exists as a sovereign country.

    Many cultures or population can only survive inside multinational "empires", otherwise will be destroyed by their neighbours, or turned into cannon fodder to be used by their new overlords against their enemies.

    Finally, most of central Asian stans are artificially created countries, which land was obtained without effort and only because of stupid soviet policies.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Thu May 23, 2024 12:04 pm

    Forced sterilization....man phst the third Reich and you would have gotten a long great.

    And are we talking about the annexation of Kazakhstan now?....

    Yes... how dare Russia or Russian supporters even mention such things... only the US and UK and Israel and of course France and Belgium and the Netherlands and a few other European countries are allowed to do such things...

    Of course open war with the west and you will get such reactions... the behaviour of the west over WWI led directly to Adolph Hitler gaining power and we all know how that turned out.

    To misquote Bush snr... I don't care what the facts are... America is not to blame... and reverse that.

    I do care about the facts and America is to blame for everything... Razz

    (not that I agree about annexation and sterilisation...)

    Russia doesn't need to for anyone to join the Russian federation... Russia needs to grow and develop and become a place people from other countries want to join or at least emulate.

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Thu May 23, 2024 12:20 pm

    And are we talking about the annexation of Kazakhstan now?
    Most of it was Russian territory for centuries.
    100+ years ago some stupid borders were drawn on a map and in 1991 Yelzin and his buddies/backers/masters
    declared them to be "state borders".
    A unification would end 100+ years of stupidity.

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    Post  Firebird Fri May 24, 2024 1:09 am

    GarryB wrote:


    Russia doesn't need to for anyone to join the Russian federation... Russia needs to grow and develop and become a place people from other countries want to join or at least emulate.

    You said the same about the Pukraine for 8 yrs or whatever.
    And what happens?

    Much of Kazakstan belongs to Russia.
    And the rest of it, should learn to behave itself or get a good slap.
    Too many attempts at Cuban Missile crises on Russia's doorstep.
    America and the Europuppets need to keep their beaks out.

    Would you let your next door neighbour steal half of your garden?
    Would you say "No I will let what is left grow and develop and become a place people want to emulate"
    Of course not. Same with the Russian World.
    PhSt
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    Post  PhSt Fri May 24, 2024 1:47 am


    Forced sterilization....man phst the third Reich and you would have gotten a long great.

    What happens to a person who is sterilized? They simply cannot make children, thats it. The Nazis sent prisoners to gas chambers to die, these two methods are worlds apart.

    Also, another major factor you missed is the Intention or Ideology behind such actions. My proposal to eliminate and/or to keep minority populations at a low level (using humane and subtle approach) in Russia is NOT based on Nazi ideology of Racial supremacy, its simply to keep the peace and uniformity in Russia. There is no guiding manifesto about how Russians are superior to other ethnicities, the only intention is to keep the peace, Period.



    the hypocrisy on this forum is legendary all love to blast the west which is fine and all but then you want the Russians to do the exact same stuff to increase their own power and influence.

    I do not support Russia because of perceptions of having the moral high ground over the west, No, my main motivation for supporting Russia (along with China, Iran, North Korea, etc) against the West is because the West have overstepped its boundaries and have completely destroyed the geopolitical balance in world.

    The Ideal DIVIDE that maintaned balance in world geopolitics is the political, military and economic alignments in 1980.

    However, due to new developments, like the rise of China and other developing countries, the past setup is no longer feasible, so a new model for global harmony should look like this.

    Political, security and economic developments in Central Asia - Page 6 Untitl11


    They are members of the common community and brotherhood in the Russian Federation with total equality in rights and obligations, tied together by brotherhood and mutual respects. But they are not Russians.

    It is human rights of everybody to be acknowledged in the respect of ethnic identity and cultural identity. Why is your identity more important than others ? Is that fair ?

    This is a dangerous way of thinking, this approach is what the Soviets exactly did, which is why large swaths of Russian territories have been gifted to brotherly people, in the end, these so called brotherly people back stabbed Russia, as in the case of Ukraine, Armenia, and stans of Central Asia.


    The problem here was just the mentioning of sterilising people that is completely absurd.

    This is only a different method of administering contraceptives, nothing sinister at all.



    A unification would end 100+ years of stupidity.

    Yes, By reclaiming all territories of the former Soviet and Russian empire, Russia will have all the resources and manpower it needs to become a superpower once again and hopefully this time around more safeguards will be put in place to avoid another disaster like what happened to the Soviet Union.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri May 24, 2024 9:01 am

    Most of it was Russian territory for centuries.

    Soviets and Russians have been the same thing in the west for most of the Cold War... the exceptions only occur when it suits... Stalin was Soviet and therefore Russian but obviously the Baltic states are not Russia and of course Ukraine etc are not Russia either... except many seem to want to join the Russian Federation again...


    You said the same about the Pukraine for 8 yrs or whatever.
    And what happens?

    Yes, I did.

    And what has happened is that the west forced a war and much of the Ukraine is now Russian and more is joining every day.

    Would you let your next door neighbour steal half of your garden?

    Nothing to do with neighbours... the family farm is being split up and the kids are wanting their own piece of land and there are lots of kids... so of course some of the kids will say it works better as one big piece but some other kids think they can do better with a piece on their own (some oil company might be talking to them giving them ideas), and of course there will be kids who just want the money for their piece of land and to move to the city.

    Would you say "No I will let what is left grow and develop and become a place people want to emulate"

    When your piece of land is fertile and is bountiful and you are earning a good living and theirs is having problems because it is not big enough and lacks skills and resources to make it work well then eventually they might sell up and let you take control of their land... for the sake of their kids future.

    Take it by force and the CIA will fund their uprising forever...
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    Post  kvs Fri May 24, 2024 2:33 pm

    It is now obvious that inter-ethnic and inter-state relations are not similar to inter-personal relations. There is a pathological
    alignment with dominant states instead of real independence. So the game degenerates into us vs. them and zero sum. Russia
    cannot allow the Central Asian 'stans to crawl up NATzO's ass. This means meddling in their "sovereign" affairs. The local elites
    of those 'stans are fully responsible for any Russian meddling. They know full well that they can maintain a proper neutrality on
    Russia's borders. But they choose to engage in real aggression against Russia. Being a tool of NATzO makes you a legitimate target.

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