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37 posters

    Political, security and economic developments in Central Asia

    GarryB
    GarryB


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    Post  GarryB Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:17 am

    My understanding was that Russia has the ties with Armenia and that Azerbaijan is the rebel... the problem child... the other Georgia in the region.

    But while they appear to be more aggressive and wanting to fight the Azeris also seem to be more respectful of Russia, while Armenia seems to have Finland syndrome... ie I am a small country and my best play is to play my big neighbour off from its enemies to get good will and presents from both sides...

    A sort of treat them mean and keep them keen... but they ignored the fact that Russian enemies are the US and the EU and they hate fence sitters... you are either our bitch or you are with the enemy... what we have seen with Finland and also Sweden who was not really even that much of a fence sitter... more someone who didn't really want to get involved and get their hands dirty.

    The Issue for Armenia is that their government thinks it can play games, but why does it think it is so critical to Russia that they would do anything to defend them... especially when they are asking America for the help and seem to be pushing Russia away.

    OK... a Hokey source, but western news footage of people in Armenia seems to show them wanting to join Europe... I understand western news footage is BS and it was probably filmed in some Ukrainian backwater with people pretending to be Armenian, but I would like to hear from someone who lives there.

    Missing TheArmenian...

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    flamming_python
    flamming_python


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    Post  flamming_python Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:04 am

    GarryB wrote:My understanding was that Russia has the ties with Armenia and that Azerbaijan is the rebel... the problem child... the other Georgia in the region.

    But while they appear to be more aggressive and wanting to fight the Azeris also seem to be more respectful of Russia, while Armenia seems to have Finland syndrome... ie I am a small country and my best play is to play my big neighbour off from its enemies to get good will and presents from both sides...

    A sort of treat them mean and keep them keen...  but they ignored the fact that Russian enemies are the US and the EU and they hate fence sitters... you are either our bitch or you are with the enemy... what we have seen with Finland and also Sweden who was not really even that much of a fence sitter... more someone who didn't really want to get involved and get their hands dirty.

    The Issue for Armenia is that their government thinks it can play games, but why does it think it is so critical to Russia that they would do anything to defend them... especially when they are asking America for the help and seem to be pushing Russia away.

    OK... a Hokey source, but western news footage of people in Armenia seems to show them wanting to join Europe... I understand western news footage is BS and it was probably filmed in some Ukrainian backwater with people pretending to be Armenian, but I would like to hear from someone who lives there.

    Missing TheArmenian...

    TheArmenian has been AWOL from here since the war back in 2020
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    Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E


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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Wed Nov 02, 2022 11:25 pm

    Sprinter Monitor
    @SprinterMonitor
    A plane with Israeli soldiers on board made an emergency landing at the airport of the Iranian city of Shiraz..
    Political, security and economic developments in Central Asia - Page 5 FglzlY5XkAIaoN5?format=jpg&name=medium

    Sprinter Monitor
    @SprinterMonitor
    Israeli TV channel war correspondent Itai Blumenthal writes:
    "An IDF soldier who went on vacation to visit her family in Uzbekistan made an emergency landing in Iran last week."

    Information that had been kept secret until now quickly reached the office of Chief of Staff Kochavi, Prime Minister Lapid and the Ministry of Defense.


    ---
    Interesting place for "vacation".
    PhSt
    PhSt


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    Post  PhSt Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:06 pm

    It looks like NATzO agents are again attempting to foment another color revolution in Kazakhstan to install another Pro NATzO Puppet

    https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/33970


    Russia needs to squash this pathetic attempt by NATzO, find their sleeper agents and turn them into premium fertilizer products for export russia

    kvs likes this post

    caveat emptor
    caveat emptor


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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Nov 26, 2022 11:11 pm

    These are Nazarbayev's sympathizers and Turkic nationalists, in one way or another supported by Turkey. Don't forget that Nazarbayev was creator of Organization of Turkic stares and organizations honorary chairman.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:09 am

    It looks like NATzO agents are again attempting to foment another color revolution in Kazakhstan to install another Pro NATzO Puppet

    https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/33970


    Russia needs to squash this pathetic attempt by NATzO, find their sleeper agents and turn them into premium fertilizer products for export russia
    kvs likes this post

    Have to laugh about this lol1

    Even though there is nothing amusing if being serious

    Tokayev thought he was clever going down the Yanukovich route and sitting on two chairs, appeasing the West, fulfilling their requests in regards to trade with Russia. It even go to the point where allegedly Kazakhstan wasn't allowing the transit of Russian grain, while Russia was blocking the transit of Kazakh oil.

    All in the quest for legitimacy, winning the upcoming election and getting Nazarbayev's money unfrozen

    Wasn't enough for the West evidently. They're no fools. They want their man in power, not Tokayev's appeasement.
    Hope Moscow takes the phone off the hook this time so that he can't get through.

    GarryB, Rodion_Romanovic and lancelot like this post

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sun Nov 27, 2022 6:48 am

    Wasn't enough for the West evidently. They're no fools. They want their man in power, not Tokayev's appeasement.
    Hope Moscow takes the phone off the hook this time so that he can't get through.

    Not fools... arseholes... but not fools...

    Reminds me a bit about relations between the UK and China... the new Brit PM was shit talking China for a bit for cheap support, but when push came to shove he started softening his rhetoric when it came time to talk and Xi wasn't going to let that pass and he cancelled the meetings... ha ha ha...

    franco and flamming_python like this post

    Rodion_Romanovic
    Rodion_Romanovic


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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:05 pm

    In this case they possibly deserve a future similar to country 404 post maidan.. with the difference that Kazakhstan does not share a border with Nato countries

    In this case maybe Russia could think about an intervention to remove this madness, but only after Tokayev will have paid with his life for his many mistakes. He has been already saved once by Russia...no golden retirement in a nice Russian city like yanukovich.

    The only thing is that for Russia it is better if this mess will come up after the situation in ukraine (and in Syria with the curds) is solved


    Actually Uzbekistan, after Karimov death, has been much less hostile to Russia than the good friend Kazakhstan...

    GarryB and flamming_python like this post

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    sundoesntrise


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    Post  sundoesntrise Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:14 pm

    Everybody talking about 'protests' but I saw only three videos showing at best a couple of hundreds guys walking down a snowy road.. After which they got swiftly loaded into police vans.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Mon Nov 28, 2022 1:08 am

    The western magnifying lens... is it a protest if they want the right things and they are traitors if they want the wrong things...

    Expose the people of the country to the truth and let them decide for themselves, if Russia has to save everyone... well a lot of people are going to be unhappy.

    Russia certainly should help allies and friends, but these are sovereign countries that need to sort their own shit out too.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:14 am

    Karimov and Nazarbayev were products of the "captive nations" of the USSR. They had some sort of deep insecurity complex and
    had the typical ethno-chauvnist agendas after the break up of the USSR that you would expect from such people. The problem
    is that these "nationalists" ended up screwing over their countries. Uzbekistan has eased off since the Karimov path was self-destructive.
    Kazakhstan is still ripening with this nationalist rot. It needs to crash to wake people up, but as we see in Ukraine, the people will live
    in poverty dreaming absurd dreams before they wise up.

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:23 pm

    Karimov and Nazarbayev were nothing of the sort

    The ones with a nationalist captive nation complex were in Georgia, in the Baltic State, in Azerbaijan briefly - but the Central Asian leaderships were always more level-headed

    More over neither Nazarbayev nor Karimov even tried to bring about the end of the USSR, and Nazarbayev refused to take part when he was invited to the Belovezh accords or its planned predecessor.

    Which is not to say Nazarbayev was some good guy or something. He rose to power on the back of the unrest in Kazakhstan against Moscow's policies in 1986, and even if he didn't want to see the end of the USSR, was endemic of its problems as this corrupt plotter state bureaucrat.
    And indeed his story is that basically of steady corruption by the West, and of all the elites under him, his own family that he enriched and tried to establish as a ruling dynasty.

    Karimov I'm less familiar with, but his policy was essentially that of isolationism and trying to maintain neutrality between the West and Russia, much like Turkmenistan except less extreme. He was never pro-Western as such, but excessively tried to avoid getting too close to Moscow or balance moves towards Russia with gestures towards the West, even when it made no sense to do so.
    At one time in Uzbekistan there was a government program to replace Russian language learning with English-lanuage learning. But this made absolutely no sense for Uzbekistan. 95% of visitors and tourists it received and still receives are from ex-Soviet countries. Vast majority of its spare laborers go to Russia to earn. And most of its overseas students go to Russia too, with the balance made up by other ex-Soviet destinations.. only a small minority study in the US and Europe.
    Long story short, after Karimov's death, the Uzbek elites warmed towards somewhat closer ties and co-operation with Russia, as the previous policy was not giving Uzbekistan as many dividends in economic development.

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