November 13th, 18:03The state armaments program has actually been suspended
Modernized infantry fighting vehicles BMP-3 with enhanced protection kits manufactured at PJSC "Kurgan Machine-Building Plant" (as part of the holding company "High-precision complexes" of the state corporation Rostec). Kurgan, 11/11/2022 (с) Government of the Kurgan region
As the Vedomosti newspaper reported in an article by Alexei Nikolsky, Dmitry Grinkevich and Inna Sidorkova, “The authorities have revised the principles of procurement for the needs of the armed forces. The State Armaments Program is being replaced by operational tasks”, on November 10, 2022, on the Kremlin’s website, President Vladimir Putin’s instructions were published on providing the Russian Armed Forces for the needs of a special military operation (SMO). These instructions were given following the meeting on November 2 with members of the Coordinating Council (CC) under the government, created for this purpose.
The government is invited before November 14 to “complete the definition of the target task to ensure the needs of the Armed Forces and other law enforcement agencies during the SMO, as well as determine the deadlines for completing the task. Together with the Ministry of Defense, the Cabinet of Ministers is obliged to establish a feedback between the military and industry and purchase as much equipment and equipment as necessary to meet the "real needs" of the troops at the front. As early as November 11, the White House should submit proposals to ensure control over the spending of funds for these needs.
The mechanism, which is instructed to create a Constitutional Court under the government, is based on the real needs of the troops, and not on the document supporting the state defense order (SDO) - the state armaments program (SAP), says a source close to the Ministry of Defense. The same was stated to Vedomosti by a top manager of a defense industry enterprise. He confirmed that the current SAP has ceased to be a document on the basis of which it is planned to finance the State Defense Order in the field of procurement of weapons and military equipment (AME; the purchase of items of clothing allowance and medical support, the tasks for which are also now being formed by the Constitutional Court, are not included in the SAP. - “Vedomosti "). In fact, the development of a new SAP has been suspended, since it will be necessary to reconsider priorities based on the experience of the SMO, says the source of Vedomosti, close to the Ministry of Defense.
Two sources close to the government also confirmed that the actual funding for the needs of the army this year has diverged from the original plan approved for 2022 as part of the budget law. One of them noted that the revision of plans during the year compared to the initial list is a traditional story, characteristic not only in relation to the SAP, but also to other state programs.
The government has fairly broad powers to redistribute funds from one area of spending to others, including new ones, he added. Indeed, during the year the SAP was adjusted, but only partially, another Vedomosti interlocutor noted.
Formally, the state program has not been canceled, work on the new plan is also ongoing, said a source close to one of the large enterprises in the defense industry and familiar with the situation. But it is obvious that the current SAP does not meet the needs of the SMO and cannot be considered relevant, he agreed.
Vedomosti sent inquiries to the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The volumes of the state defense order are determined by the current needs of the army, the representative of RostPeacetime tool
In an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta in September 2021, Former Deputy Chairman of the Collegium of the Military-Industrial Commission (MIC) of Russia, Andrei Yelchaninov, said that a new SAP was beginning to be prepared by arms customers (the Ministry of Defense and other departments). This is happening on the basis of documents on the main directions of development of armaments for a 15-year perspective, as well as on the prospective image of the Armed Forces for 10 years ahead. In addition, the Russian Military-Industrial Commission is preparing an analysis of security threats for 30 years ahead, which is aligned with the forecast of Russia's financial and economic development until 2035, Yelchaninov reported.
In 2021, all these documents were being prepared to draw up on their basis the SAP for 2023–2033, which should replace the current SAP 2018–2028. (The GPV is drawn up for a 10-year period, but is reviewed every five years). According to Yelchaninov, SAP-2033 should have cost no less than 21-22 trillion rubles, i.e., be at the level of SAP-2028 - 21.7 trillion rubles.
In 2022, Russia's spending on national defense amounted to 4.679 trillion rubles, follows from the materials for the draft budget for the next three years. This is 1.2 trillion rubles. more than was approved for 2022 - according to the law on the federal budget for the current three-year period, it was planned to spend 3.5 trillion rubles, Vedomosti wrote.
In the next two years, defense spending will also be higher than expected. In 2023, they will amount to almost 5 trillion rubles, while the current budget law provided for spending 3.6 trillion. According to the draft Guidelines of the Ministry of Finance, in 2024, spending will slightly decrease to 4.6 trillion rubles. In the approved budget for 2022-2024 planned to send 3.8 trillion. Further, defense spending will also continue to decline: in 2025 they will amount to 4.2 trillion.
The actual halt in the implementation of the SAP and the development of a new one are completely natural and natural, says Mikhail Barabanov, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies: “It is clear that all priorities and volumes of purchases need to be changed when conducting a SMO.” The SAP, Barabanov believes, is an attempt to drag the system of Soviet long-term military-technical planning into the current conditions of a completely different political and economic structure. Therefore, all SAPs had to be reviewed, the expert continues: “Well, the directions of revision are obvious - towards urgent requirements to the detriment of long-term programs.”
New tasks can be formed to meet the urgent needs of the Ground Forces at the expense of the fleet and the Aerospace Forces (not counting reconnaissance systems and aviation weapons, especially high-precision ones), says Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine. Andrey Frolov, an expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs, also agrees that the costs of the fleet will be redistributed in favor of the Ground Forces. SMO and partial mobilization showed that the volume of purchases of the same equipment should be a multiple of it, he says. We can also expect an increase in the cost of repairing military equipment, Frolov notes.
At the same time, R&D, which is close to completion, will not be stopped, the expert is sure.