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    Tu-95MS "Bear"

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    mnztr

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    Post  mnztr on Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:04 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    This is true, and I doubt every single bomber will need 6 nuclear short range missiles to battle their way through to their launch positions... by the time these aircraft are approaching enemy territory the ICBMs and SLBMs will have already destroyed cities and airfields and HQs and communications centres etc...

    In times of tension they tend to send the bombers out first for several reasons. 1) they are recallable  2) it stretches out the decision time while allowing dialogue to continue 3) they risk being destroyed on the ground so get them into the air. 4) it reduces the chance of a first strike by the enemy as they know there is plenty of capacity to retaliate if they strike 5) it gradually increases pressure on the enemy without forcing split second responses.

    Imagine watching the long range radar and seeing the entire Russian strategic bomber fleet take off. That is something that will definitely focus the mind.
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    Post  mnztr on Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:38 pm

    Isos wrote:

    Tu-95 is good against other nuclear states but not so much against US.

    the Bear is still very effective against the US. It can fly in on a strike mission. then go to low altitude where it will launch its payload. Then it will head home, all while well out of US interception range.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:18 am

    Unless the VKS says they're retiring the Kh-102 there's no reason to believe that.

    Even if they developed a nuclear ramjet powered cruise missile of unlimited range and had them in enormous numbers today (btw... fit them with retractable undercarriage and more than one droppable nuclear warhead and call them UCAVs so they don't count in START treaties), then the nuclear armed Kh-102s could still be used against a wide range of targets that don't require unlimited range missiles...

    Most of europe for instance.

    The B-2 was designed with the concept that it would be completely invisible to any radar, so it can calmly stroll into any airspace, drop its bombs and casually walk away.
    And then out of nowhere, reality bit them in the back.

    Yes, when flying at medium altitudes their fuel efficient engines give them good range and the compact nature of nuclear bombs meaning large numbers of targets could be engaged made it a good idea... as long as the enemy couldn't see it.

    Problem is that even their slowest oldest interceptors could catch it and shoot it down... directed to visual range by ground based radar.

    Most interceptors in Russia have IRST which would have done too.

    US also has OTH radars around their mainland. They will detect those tu-95 pretty far away. They also have hundreds of f-15 and f22 supported by a huge fleet of tankers to intercept them far away and using AIM 120D with around 150km range against such bombers.

    Except those amazing air defences will have already been hit by ICBMs and SLBMs and will likely not be in any condition to do anything operationally for quite some time... but more than that the bombers themselves will be carrying Gzur 1,500km range nuclear armed missiles that fly at mach 6 and are intended to destroy any operation radars or air bases or indeed aircraft in the air... plus of course the fact that by the time the Bears get there flying low they wont be an easy target to spot 5,000kms away from the targets they are about to launch attacks at... the Blackjacks would have already been there and done that and turned and left at mach 2...

    The 5000km range for kh-102 isn't official or proved. It comes directly from a random guy on wikipedia. I wouldn't bet on more than 3000km.

    Of course... because the Kh-55SM from the 1980s at 6 metres long and 1.5 tons in weight that has a proven range of 3,000km would obviously suggest that a new missile that is 7.4 metres long and a ton heavier couldn't possibly have extended its flight range any distance at all.... yep... 3,000km is the limit...

    And it comes from the Russian military. 4,500km for the conventionally armed Kh-101 and 5,000km for the nuclear armed Kh-102.

    The kh-102 is as stealth for US OTH radars as new US missile for russian OTH radars.

    Very true, but the ICBMs and SLBMs hitting the fewer OTH US radars will be actively evading their ABMs, while the much older US ICBMs and SLBMs wont be trying to evade the ABMs around the Russian OTH radars...

    Then they can guide the f-16/15/22 to destroy them in flight or coordinate their patriot batteries. They will probably get more AD systems to counter PGM as they saw the good results of pantsir/tors against their missiles in Syria.

    They will probably try... but as I said those bombers will be carrying missiles to clear the way and could and probably will only be engaging targets from great distances...

    They can also keep 2 carrier on both coast to watch for the bombers with ground vased AWACS and their AEGIS cruisers.

    The current state of their carrier fleets... would they have them in position in time?

    Tu-95 is good against other nuclear states but not so much against US.

    I think you are over estimating the air defence ability of the US to protect itself after being hit by a full scale nuclear attack...

    In times of tension they tend to send the bombers out first for several reasons. 1) they are recallable 2) it stretches out the decision time while allowing dialogue to continue 3) they risk being destroyed on the ground so get them into the air. 4) it reduces the chance of a first strike by the enemy as they know there is plenty of capacity to retaliate if they strike 5) it gradually increases pressure on the enemy without forcing split second responses.

    Indeed, but those bombers don't race out to positions near enemy air space... it is likely SLBMs and ICBMs will be landing hours before the bombers launch their cruise missiles...

    And US bombers will be little to no threat to Russian bombers.

    It might be of interest that both sides fly their aircraft low as they approach enemy territory to make detection harder... and that includes B-2s and B-1Bs and B-52s and the funny thing is that at low level a Bear is actually faster than a B-52 and has much better flight range.

    Bears are also much cheaper to fly than Blackjacks.




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    mnztr

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    Post  mnztr on Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:06 pm

    GarryB wrote:

    In times of tension they tend to send the bombers out first for several reasons. 1) they are recallable  2) it stretches out the decision time while allowing dialogue to continue 3) they risk being destroyed on the ground so get them into the air. 4) it reduces the chance of a first strike by the enemy as they know there is plenty of capacity to retaliate if they strike 5) it gradually increases pressure on the enemy without forcing split second responses.

    Indeed, but those bombers don't race out to positions near enemy air space... it is likely SLBMs and ICBMs will be landing hours before the bombers launch their cruise missiles...

    And US bombers will be little to no threat to Russian bombers.

    It might be of interest that both sides fly their aircraft low as they approach enemy territory to make detection harder... and that includes B-2s and B-1Bs and B-52s and the funny thing is that at low level a Bear is actually faster than a B-52 and has much better flight range.

    Bears are also much cheaper to fly than Blackjacks.


    The bombers will be launched even before the decision is made to actually strike. Yes they will head to their launch positions. The US knows the capabilities of their missiles, so they know roughly what radius that is, and its WELL out of their air defence range. The ICBMs will be on high alert. This is the most dangerous time. One false move and the world would end. All this while they would be talking trying to find a way to save the world...hopefully. There would be an infinite possibility of orders. Wait for confirmation, launch unless recalled, launch at a designated time etc etc.
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:33 am

    Yes they will head to their launch positions.

    No they wont... they will loiter over Russian territory and get topped up by inflight refuelling aircraft while they wait for further orders... flying to their launch positions would leave them exposed and unable to use their nuclear armed self defence missiles to defend themselves...

    The US knows the capabilities of their missiles, so they know roughly what radius that is, and its WELL out of their air defence range.

    The US will have a good idea of where the launch positions will be based on the likely targets and the range of the missiles.... and sending the bombers to those launch positions before a war even starts will also be a bit of a give away to the Americans too.

    There would be an infinite possibility of orders. Wait for confirmation, launch unless recalled, launch at a designated time etc etc.

    The launch positions for the Russian bombers will be well outside Russian controlled airspace... making them sitting ducks and why?

    Once they are airborne and flying at 800km/h the chance of hitting them with ICBMs or SLBMs is so low it can be ignored... 1,500 warheads sounds like a lot but there are lots of important military and civilian targets they need to hit... launching warheads at empty areas in Siberia on the chance there might be bombers flying around there is a terrible waste of resources and assets.
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    Post  Hole on Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:13 pm

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    mnztr

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    Post  mnztr on Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:19 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Yes they will head to their launch positions.

    No they wont... they will loiter over Russian territory and get topped up by inflight refuelling aircraft while they wait for further orders... flying to their launch positions would leave them exposed and unable to use their nuclear armed self defence missiles to defend themselves...

    The US knows the capabilities of their missiles, so they know roughly what radius that is, and its WELL out of their air defence range.

    The US will have a good idea of where the launch positions will be based on the likely targets and the range of the missiles.... and sending the bombers to those launch positions before a war even starts will also be a bit of a give away to the Americans too.

    There would be an infinite possibility of orders. Wait for confirmation, launch unless recalled, launch at a designated time etc etc.

    The launch positions for the Russian bombers will be well outside Russian controlled airspace... making them sitting ducks and why?

    Once they are airborne and flying at 800km/h the chance of hitting them with ICBMs or SLBMs is so low it can be ignored... 1,500 warheads sounds like a lot but there are lots of important military and civilian targets they need to hit... launching warheads at empty areas in Siberia on the chance there might be bombers flying around there is a terrible waste of resources and assets.

    The potential launch positions with the long range cruise missiles is almost limitless. The mission to try an intercept them will be massive, with tanker, fighters etc. The Russians can easily alter course and pick from limitless alternatives, or fly back to their tankers Any intercept will have to fly out thousands of KM to be effective, its almost impossible
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:34 am

    I agree that they provide a definite threat to Russias enemies... mainly because Americans air defence network is largely based on fighters, while Russian air defence is based on fighters and proper interceptors as well as an extensive ground based network of air defence systems...

    If the bombing attack by a Vulcan on the Falklands Islands to take out the airfield on the islands to prevent Argentina from using the islands to forward base fighters to take on the British armada is the yardstick, the Tu-95 actually looks very very good... not only does it have excellent range but also is getting a variety of air to ground launched standoff munitions that would be optimised for taking out specific targets including runways....

    Merely 12 years ago they had to use Backfires with large numbers of conventional bombs to attack runways in Georgia... which was a serious risk.

    With standoff cruise missiles with submunition warheads able to fly low and fast down the length of the runway with cratering munitions that can be launched from enormous distances from the airfield itself is a huge step forward...

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