Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53

https://fortune.com/europe/2022/12/15/patriot-missile-defense-systems-what-they-are-and-what-they-do/


A short and simplified article . Important point is American refusal to state exactly how long it takes to train the crew for patriot . Why ? Because they know , they can not explain the use of patriot by Ukraine so early in the game . Meaning they fired the projectile . But even if they did not press the " fire, " button , and set everything else up , then makes no difference . This is a direct NATO attack on Russian soil . Probably happened before too . Retaliation ? How about providing support to Iran ? Or other groups engaged against the Yanks in the world . Set it up and let them press the " fire, "  button ! Nothing to do with us either !

Amazing work by the Russian AD

The surprise factor is gone.

I guess some of the AD and radar/Elint systems in Russia are playing dead
(out of order for scheduled maintenance) to trick NATO into believing that
there is an opportunity for a successful attack. Just to come back alive to
thwart it.

When was the last "big" attack by the Ukros? Must be a few weeks.
Well, missiles are expensive if you don´t have the basic materials and
energy in abundance.


I love the bucket.

Looks like only real pu$$!e$ are allowed!

Russia to expand Ukraine’s ‘demilitarized zone’ – Putin

Moscow’s forces must ensure Kiev’s troops cannot strike Russian cities with Western longer-range weapons, the president has said

Russia needs to create a large “demilitarized zone” in Ukraine, one that is big enough to ensure no longe-range weapons can strike Russian cities, President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday

Russian border regions have been subjected to frequent drone and missile attacks, as well as shelling by the Ukrainian military, since the start of the conflict between Kiev and Moscow. One of the deadliest attacks took place on December 30, when Kiev’s forces struck the Russian border city of Belgorod with multiple rocket launchers, including the RM-70 Vampire – an upgraded heavier version of the Soviet BM-21 Grad system.

A December strike claimed the lives of 25 people, including children, and left more than 100 injured. In January, another massive strike hit the city of Donetsk, killing 27 civilians. Both attacks were condemned by the UN.

“This [demilitarized] line should … lie at such a distance from our territory that it would ensure the security [of Russian cities],” the president said on Wednesday, adding that he was specifically referring to protection from “foreign-made longer-range weapons that the Ukrainian authorities use to strike peaceful cities.”

According to Putin, Russian forces fighting on the frontlines were pushing Kiev’s troops away from Russian borders to safeguard national security. “This is the main mission for our guys: to protect their homeland, to protect our people,” he said.

The “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine were cited as the major goals of Russia’s ongoing military campaign from the very beginning. Putin specifically mentioned a demilitarized or “sanitary” zone that was to be created in Ukraine in June 2023. At the time, the Russian president said that this zone could be created if Kiev’s forces continue to launch attacks at Russian cities. The goal of this move would be to make it impossible for the Ukrainian military “to reach us,” he said.

The US and its allies have been actively supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons throughout the conflict that ranged from howitzers and various artillery pieces to multiple rocket launchers and missile systems.

The list of the longer-range Western-made weapons in Kiev’s possession include the British-made Storm Shadow missiles that have a range of 250km (155 miles) and the US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 160 kilometers (100 miles).

Earlier this week, Politico reported that Washington could provide Kiev with Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), which also have a range of around 160 kilometers (100 miles).

----

It is what we already know

A large scale operation to create the expanded demilitarized zone will begin

It is a law of diminishing returns . Most damage is done by cheap Artillery , with max range of 30 km . To create a DMZ  wall along border with Ukraine is doable and practical . But clearing a 300 km space needs far greater number of troops . Advancing into areas that may not be tactically useful nor easy . Even if this is created , then they can fire missiles with 300 km + 1 , what then ? At some point , creation of larger DMZ , will bring little advantage and at great cost . Supposing the most likely scenario of partition of Ukraine , with Orcs in power for a period of time . Then they will not stop missile attacks . Best way , other than their complete defeat and occupation of entire Ukraine territory , is offensive retaliation against the Orcs , and indirect help to their adversary .

Unsuccessful Russian attack near Novomikhaylovka.

https://vk.com/video-151878956_456279316

A large scale operation to create the expanded demilitarized zone will begin wrote:

You can see right now. Forget about any major operations by Russia. They are unable to break Ukrainian lines.

They are unable to break Ukrainian lines.

The main events in the Donetsk direction in the Bakhmut area are developing at the Kleshcheevka-Ivanovskoye-Bogdanovka line. Where our troops at a front of about 10 kilometers move forward in eight main directions at once. Moreover, progress is noted every day. This is one of the most dynamic and active sections of the entire front.

West of Kleshcheevka our 4th separate brigade, which includes the famous Prizrak battalion (LPR), together with the special forces Akhmat two days ago I knocked out the enemy from the dacha area and now continues to move towards Ivanovsky. From three sides at once – from the side of Kleshcheevka along the road that connects this village and Ivanovskoye. Along the main highway Bakhmut – Konstantinovka. And from the Khromovo side.

Now the main battles are taking place over the chain of heights in front of Ivanovsky. But there is already less than a kilometer left to Ivanovsky itself.

Marat Khairullin

The dispute between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, and the inability to fire Zaluzhny prove that the VSU are in a state of collapse

It is actually very interesting... it shows that Zelensky is not all powerful and the Zaluzhny has the power to say no to Zelensky so both men obviously some very powerful backers... which also suggests if they end up openly fighting each other that this will weaken Kiev even further and might even lead to a military coup and either collapse or surrender to save their own lives.

The Army is more likely to surrender because the politicians have proven happy to fight to the last Ukrainian soldier, but I doubt the soldiers would agree with that.

Getting politicians onto the front line as fighters rather than visitors and observers might change their mind about how long they should resist...

But as Naryshkin has said, the fate of those elites and Ukraine will be quite sad indeed

And they deserve it, the sht they have put the average Ukrainian through just to pander to the US and the EU and make money... when they were already rich.

Texas is seceding, the unruly Iranians have just killed US troops, and it seems like the grand finale has not begun yet

Most Americans are unhappy but still fiercely patriotic, and a change to mount a largely pointless strike on Iran or any other country in the region is what the Pentagon is looking for... attack from long range, declare victory and then move on and hope no one notices it was all symbolic and pointless.

That would clearly mean a staged and planned provocation.
As I said, you can't use Patriot as a separate subsystem.
It requires a fully developed structure, with radars and power supply to operate.
Making a battery ready for battle requires about an hour of extensive operations.

But for an ambush you don't need a whole battery to be set up and just one launcher will do when you anticipate there to only be two targets and from known directions and approximate times.

You calculate when the target is going to be in range... perhaps using HATO assets so you turn on your systems and launch a missile... this is going to get your battery destroyed but you are sacrificing the Patriot system for a kill. Note just after the attack the battlefield notes talked about IRIS-T and Patriot and BUK systems being destroyed so they probably set up a few systems to have a shot and it was the Patriot missile that reached the target... but they launched too soon because the other aircraft was turned away and survived.

But that is really an indication of orchestrated action.

An ambush that probably cost them their radar and at least one launcher... across about three different systems.

I guess some of the AD and radar/Elint systems in Russia are playing dead
(out of order for scheduled maintenance) to trick NATO into believing that
there is an opportunity for a successful attack. Just to come back alive to
thwart it.

The advantage of an IADS is that every battery has its own radar... search and tracking radar and they can be turned on but listening and not transmitting or actually transmtting to add to the system view of the sky, and either visible or invisible to enemy forces.

A proper AD network has an entire battery of missile launch vehicles rather than individual vehicles on their own defending things like you would have in Syria or Libya.

This makes them vastly more capable and rather more difficult to overwhelm locally with numbers.

“This [demilitarized] line should … lie at such a distance from our territory that it would ensure the security [of Russian cities],” the president said on Wednesday, adding that he was specifically referring to protection from “foreign-made longer-range weapons that the Ukrainian authorities use to strike peaceful cities.”

According to Putin, Russian forces fighting on the frontlines were pushing Kiev’s troops away from Russian borders to safeguard national security. “This is the main mission for our guys: to protect their homeland, to protect our people,” he said.

Which is what I have said before that if Kiev has 300km range missiles then Russia needs to push Kievs forces 300km from the new Russian borders of these regions that have joined the Russian Federation.

Of course once they push enemy forces back 300km those Ukrainians in this 300km buffer zone could then have a referendum and decide being a buffer zone is not really very safe or have much prospects for development and they might choose to join the Russian Federation... which means the buffer zone will have to move a further 300km, or the nearest international border... which ever comes first.

The longer the conflict goes on the worse the deal Kiev is going to get.

It is a law of diminishing returns . Most damage is done by cheap Artillery , with max range of 30 km . To create a DMZ wall along border with Ukraine is doable and practical . But clearing a 300 km space needs far greater number of troops . Advancing into areas that may not be tactically useful nor easy . Even if this is created , then they can fire missiles with 300 km + 1 ,

As the regions get taken by Russian troops I rather suspect many of the locals will change flags and sing Russian tunes and sign referendum documents to improve their future. They went nazi pretty quick... I would not be surprised if they found their slavic roots just as quick and learned to blame Europe and the US for all their problems...

When the Kiev military collapses or capitulates then it wont require and invasion force fighting for every scrap of territory, it will be more like the advance on Kiev with enemy groups in pockets surrendering to local civilian officials to be handed over to the Russians for processing (to find the crims) and then most will just be released back into the community to return to their homes and families.

There will be hard core nutters holding out and fighting to the death but they will be isolated and fairly easy to deal with even if they have to use Malka (203mm) and Tulip (240mm), and air delivered 1.5 ton glide bombs.

You can see right now. Forget about any major operations by Russia. They are unable to break Ukrainian lines.

They don't need to break Ukrainian lines along the entire front... in fact circling around them and cutting up supplies and support and hitting them from behind is likely the easiest way of doing things... cut them off for a month and then give them surrender terms and most will likely choose to surrender I rather suspect... except the nazis who know they would spend the rest of their lives in jail and they are not the majority.

When the Kiev forces collapse as a unit their ability to resist in any organised way will also collapse.

Not every Russian attack is going to spectacularly succeed every time.

Arrow wrote:Unsuccessful Russian attack near Novomikhaylovka.

https://vk.com/video-151878956_456279316



You can see right now. Forget about any major operations by Russia. They are unable to break Ukrainian lines.

Yes, large operations in this war are not possible by anyone at the moment.

To rub into the wound how war has changed by drones- Ukraine also destroyed Tarantul class.

https://x.com/coupsure/status/1753011205042553169?s=46

Ukrainians lost their Iris - most likely Geran hit

https://x.com/hy3ze0_m/status/1752753820352811274?s=46

Yes, large operations in this war are not possible by anyone at the moment. To rub into the wound how war has changed by drones- Ukraine also destroyed Tarantul class. wrote:

Not now or even in a year. There is a long way to go for Russia to win this war. Russia does not have the strength to break the Ukrainian lines and Ukraine does not have the strength to break the Russian lines. The front is concreted. With a greater attack, Russia also suffers large losses. The stories about how UA is already collapsing, which I have been reading here since April 22, are fairy tales.

Disagree . The attrition rate is hugely in Russia's favour and is constant . If numbers are true , then Russia lost one tenth of Ukraine . Plus Russia are a cohesive force with functioning government and society . Be it by small offensives or large ones , Ukraine can not keep up with losses . Already they recruit old men and disabled ! The Orcs left to their devices , even without a war , will turn politically and socially carnivorous and cannibalistic . They have no future . The only thing I would say is that static frontlines can turn into psychological inertia and stalemate . It looked like this was happening a while ago , but is now corrected , with small timely pincer advances . Taking the initiative and capturing strategic points . Much better now .

nomadski wrote:


Disagree . The attrition rate is hugely in Russia's favour and is constant . If numbers are true , then Russia lost one tenth of Ukraine . Plus Russia are a cohesive force with functioning government and society . Be it by small offensives or large ones , Ukraine can not keep up with losses . Already they recruit old men and disabled ! The Orcs left to their devices , even without a war , will turn politically and socially carnivorous and cannibalistic . They have no future .

Yes, there are only disabled and old people in the Ukrainian army, and Russia loses a lot of people and equipment, etc. with every major action. It's amazing what the army of disabled and old people can do.

nomadski wrote:


Disagree . The attrition rate is hugely in Russia's favour and is constant . If numbers are true , then Russia lost one tenth of Ukraine . Plus Russia are a cohesive force with functioning government and society . Be it by small offensives or large ones , Ukraine can not keep up with losses . Already they recruit old men and disabled ! The Orcs left to their devices , even without a war , will turn politically and socially carnivorous and cannibalistic . They have no future .

Attrition rate at the moment shouldn’t be in Russian favour due to them conducting offensive operations front wide and maintaining initiative.

But Russian equipment and manpower can be replenished much easier, shortages are less glaring, less trash formations. And this is where it’s heading, the gap will only widen. Not to mention Russian losses of manpower and equipment are steadily decreasing compared to last year. If the trend continues, well it’s a bad news for you. For Ukrainians to win they should have unrealistic 10:1 ratio

There is a reason why Putin said that it might take up to 5 years to finish SMO. Providing Ukraine doesn’t tap out. It’s slow and methodical and quite frankly, boring for mappers who want to see WW2 style arrows.

There is a reason why Putin said that it might take up to 5 years to finish SMO. Providing Ukraine doesn’t tap out. It’s slow and methodical and quite frankly, boring for mappers who want to see WW2 style arrows. wrote:

Russia does not have and will not have the strength to launch any major offensive in this war. That is why he hopes that they will exhaust Ukraine and the West with a tedious war of position. The West will not get tired at this rate, the war will last at least 10 years. A lot of Russians will die during this time and suffer a lot of losses.

Arrow wrote:

Russia does not have and will not have the strength to launch any major offensive in this war. That is why he hopes that they will exhaust Ukraine and the West with a tedious war of position. The West will not get tired at this rate, the war will last at least 10 years. A lot of Russians will die during this time and suffer a lot of losses.

Check Ukrainian population chart, men of recruitable age. And tell me again about those 10 years.
And armoured vehicles are something west can’t match and this will leave Ukraine themselves impotent when it comes to offensive operations. To stay in perpetual defence means even if Russians won’t have major offensive, they will have more strategic flexibility. Small offensives is what this all about now. Look at Adviivka maps

In my humble opinion, Putins heart is still not hardened. I am Medvevist when it comes to this. Russians are called monsters already, maybe it would be time to live up to the expectations? Why Jews can and Russians can’t?

There where some proposals on Z side:

Dams in Ukraine - surely, it will help the grain harvest next year

Large hospitals (they all house soldiers nowdays)- administer Kinzhal vaccine

Sanitation facilities in big cities - Who doesn’t have toilets?

Thermal power plants - bit too late, but why not?

Properties of anti-Russian rada members- a little tap on the window, especially nice if they are at home

Schools - education in Ukraine needs a reformation

Gosh, that sounds like Total Hohol Death, I don’t think I can even support that, but Ukrainians are helping me to slowly embrace it.


The outrage is all used up, what else can West do? They already prolapsed screaming

Regular wrote:
The outrage is all used up, what else can West do? They already prolapsed screaming

I was answering to that multiple times.
It is not a show for the westerners, but for the remaining 6+ bln humans on the planet.
Check for Gaza.
Not even the most harsh and intense propaganda justifying the Israeli agenda solves the problem.
People protest, all around the globe.
Israel is considered a pariah by most of the people on the planet, not being western thugs.
There is no chance Israel will have any support other than western one. Nobody else will help them.
People worldwide stand with Palestinians, even considering that the whole situation is an insane spiral of hate driven by both sides.
Even the things Hutis are doing, which usually should have been considered terror campaigns and piracy acts, go unpunished. Romantic stories about flip-flops targeting US Navy are spreading.
This is all because of a difference.
People see it.
That is why the Chinese MoD can officially state, that China understands Russia, and will support Russia no matter if anyone likes that or not. Because Chinese people likes that way.
That is why Mr. Jaishankar pushed by the western media and officials answers, that Russia was a friend of India for decades, is a friend of India now, and will be a friend of India in the future, no matter who & what will be said. And that the relations created by generations won't be changed under others' pressure.
That is why Putin visiting the Middle East is being welcomed as a son of Allah himself, while western politicians are being openly humiliated. Standing half an hour on the plane doorsteps waiting for anyone to arrive to meet them, or forced to get out of a plane using a ladder.
This is why Russia's position in Africa is stronger, and much more bilateral, than it was at the peak of the Soviet power in the 70s.
This is why Lavrov gets an ashtray while in meetings in the UN conference room.
You seem not to see the forest because trees all around spoil your eyesight.

Arrow wrote:

Russia does not have and will not have the strength to launch any major offensive in this war. That is why he hopes that they will exhaust Ukraine and the West with a tedious war of position. The West will not get tired at this rate, the war will last at least 10 years. A lot of Russians will die during this time and suffer a lot of losses.

Lol you assume too much

Currently Russia is conducting minor attacks that result in 3-10 deaths per day (*10 is a bad day)

Meanwhile Ukraine is conducting a mobilization to replace the 300,000 men of Tavrida grouping that have been wasted

Tabaevka and Krakhmalnoye were taken quite easily without resistance

You know what that means right?

A couple of squads of the 1st GTA literally walked into these towns without resistance

It means there are no Ukrainians left to defend the border -

This is not gonna take 5 years, there are no men for it, no weapons for it, and no mood to fight

And what do you use as support for your theories?

Some PR attacks?

Meanwhile the SMERSH has been recreated for filtering the rear areas of the Russian army -

But you are crying that in the dead of winter, there is no breakthrough , but I guess the reappearance of the 1st GTA in Kharkov is something you people would prefer to sweep under the rug

This :



Indicates PAC-2 missile being used.

ALAMO wrote:
This is why Lavrov gets an ashtray while in meetings in the UN conference room.
You seem not to see the forest because trees all around spoil your eyesight.

When fighting monsters, you have to become one.
Moral superiority doesn’t win generational wars.

And Russia friendly countries wouldn’t bat an eye if Ukrainians would sleep in feces, have no heating, drinking water and wouldn’t be able to access medical help. Why?

In the world there is no sympathy for people who consider themselves superior to others. For people who think that killing their POWs just for the chance to hit Russian officials is normal. For the people who have **** all to do with Gaza, yet gloat Palestinian deaths and blindly support Israel.
I can understand the Russians. They are simply delaying what needs to be done, it’s same hesitation one gets while putting down a rabid dog

Regular wrote:
Just look at Ukrainians gloating over dead Palestinians and praising Israeli treatment. They hate everyone who doesn’t support them with money. Hence why apart from EU and USA vassals, there are no sympathy for them.

There is a lot of sympathy for them, at least if someone is a sane human.
War was brought to them, no matter their position.
The people of Ukraine voted twice for peace and were fooled twice.
Before that, they were fooled that they will become a member of European family and economy, while EU gave a shit about them at all.
Regular Ukrainians were tamed with untrue pictures of their future, only to push them for irrational actions that were settled against their interests.
It was a settled trap they fell into.
Who was brave enough, or desperate enough, simply emigrated.
Both Europe and Russia benefited from the enormous flow of Ukrainian labor.
Those are hard-working people, who participate in the economy.
Most of those I know will never return to Ukraine - a place they used to call home.
There is nothing left for them there.
What kind of a person one shall be, not to feel sorry for their fate?
Would you like to be forced to flee Russia, because it is becoming a shithole no matter what you and your friends are doing?
Why shouldn't I feel sympathy for other people, who work hard to find a new place for them, after losing their own?