Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

Putin never defined the real goals of that war. The very likely goal is to at least get half of Ukraine. Best scenario is to take the entire Ukraine.

Offensive will happen. Again, they have to liberate at least the Donbass since they accepted it into Russia. You can not take the Donbass with defensive tactics. One day or another they will have to push. They can't take out all the ukrainian soldiers from defensive positions. No offensive and the war will transform into a border clash and make donbass a no man's zone, a bit like North Karabakh or Kashmir region which are disputed for decades.

Putin doesn't want such thing as a wound into Russia that nato will keep puting salt on. Because that's what it is. He has to push back ukrainian forces far from the Donbass. If not Nato will keep sending weapons and ukrainians will keep bombing civilians there.

Spriter: Belarus has announced that tomorrow a major redeployment of troops will be carried out along the roads of the country in the interests of ensuring national security.


Short reminder to anyone that Russia took 20% of 404 with roughly 150.000 men, one third of which were DPR/LPR forces back then. Against the fully deployed Ukro army
and NATO recon stuff. The additional 300.000+ troops will go a long way against the leftover cannon fodder and their mostly destroyed rear services.




Kurganmash is working. Producing your own weapons is really nice.

Kurganmash is working. Producing your own weapons is really nice.

Yep, not having to wait on Sugardaddy NATO to gift you more hand-me-down weapons from their 40+ year old stock.

The Minsk agreements were a scam meant to stall time and allow Ukraine to build up defensive capabilities. Sadly Russia fell for it, and even today Donetsk, a Russian city, is being shelled daily without recourse.

A quote from Angela Merkel

Bakhmut is the gift that just keeps on giving. A constantly refreshed supply for the meat grinder. Any RA activity just leads to more on the way, A real honey trap.

Its almost as if Kiev is onside with the Russians demilitarisation plan.

They must be stark staring mad.

Burn, baby, burn

One TV station in 404 got it right. 

Pretty dumb assumptions. In 2014 Russia was weajer than today with far less weapons including less Iskanders and Kalibr launchers and very few su-35.

They also where going to get involved in Syria.

Ukraine was a frozen conflict which wasn't in need for an intervention. Syria was much more important.

Putin trusted no one. Minsk was also about giving time to Russia to finish its work in Syria. Once the work was done there, they started taking care of Ukraine.

Moreover Minsk was between Russia France and Germany. Since France nd Germany can't decide for Ukraine, US being the master, Minsk had 0 value. US were and are the master abd the one taking decisions. Russia knows and knew it very well.

The nazis where also well trained in 2014 and the regular army is just as shitty today than it was back in 2014.

The weapons they received from the west came only since feb 2022.

All that bullshit about Russia not prepared and not seeing anything is dumb. They have their analysts and they made their choices. Some mistakes for sure but they knew very well what they did. Much more than some dumbass from twitter.

Military expert Boris Rozhin on the UAV Lull, the "Bargaining" around the #ZNPP, the Russian Army Offensive and Battle for #Artemovsk (#Bakhmut); pub. 06 Dec 2020, 21:07:zap:

Geranium Blooms in Winter:

What is the reason for the pause in the use of "Geraniums" on the facilities of the AFU and the energy infrastructure of #Ukraine? Is there a climatic factor? To what extent these devices are operable in sub-zero temperatures?

There are several reasons. Deteriorating weather, the need to increase production for mass use, plus perhaps there is an accumulation of drones for mass strikes that will accompany offensives in winter.

There is no data on the rate and volume of production of these drones in #Iran and #Russia, although Iranian military transport planes continue to fly to #Moscow with enviable regularity, so there is a flow of cargo. There is no intelligible information in the public domain about the operation of the Gerans in sub-zero temperatures.

#ZNPP must remain Russian:

There are rumors circulating more and more that #Zaporizhzhya NPP will either be handed over to #Ukraine or will be placed under direct management of IAEA. Is that scenario acceptable to #Russia and what impact would it have on energy supply to the "square"?

Such a scenario, of course, is unacceptable, and the implementation of something like that would be regarded as an obvious defeat for #Russia. Officially, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation clarified yesterday that nothing of the kind would happen and the sovereignty over the #ZNPP would not be given to anybody.

The maximum that #Moscow agrees to in exchange for stopping the shelling of #ZNPP by the AFU is to undertake not to place heavy weapons at #ZNPP while keeping Russian guards with light weapons at the station, with Rosatom personnel working at the station.

As #Ukraine and its sponsors are not satisfied with this, shelling of #ZNPP and #Energodar is expected to continue. Meanwhile, the #ZNPP staff was finally cleaned up - those who did not sign a contract with Rosatom were removed from the plant + tipsters from the AFU were cleaned up.

https://t.me/sitreports/1766

Russian troops are advancing in #Artemovsk. At the same time, news of the "collapse of the Ukrainian defence" has repeatedly emerged. Is the Ukrainian command ready to abandon the town or does it plan to hold it despite losses?

There is no collapse of enemy defences. The enemy has been forced to retreat south of #Artemovsk, but maintains the integrity of the front north of #Kurdyumovka, relying on the entrenchment in #Kleshcheyevka and the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal. At the same time a second line of defence is being built at Chasov Yar.

The pace of our offensive here is slow, which, however, is offset by the heavy losses that the Wagner PMCs and the RF Armed Forces inflict on the #Artemovsk group (according to Ukrainian and Western statements, from 500 to 800 killed and wounded per day). In #Artemovsk itself, fighting continues for #Opytnoye and in the industrial zone on the eastern outskirts.

Without capturing #Opytnoye there can be no hope of a direct assault on #Artemovsk. The AFU will not surrender the city for nothing, which is why reinforcements, including those withdrawn from other directions, are being rushed here. The loss of #Artemovsk will have severe consequences for the AFU, identical to those after the loss of #Popasna.

To secure #Donetsk, we need to move west:

If #Artemovsk is liberated by the Russian army, will this reduce the threat to #Donetsk in terms of artillery shelling of the DPR capital?

Partly, as the capture of #Artemovsk will force the AFU to rebuild its defences in #Donbass, but it is important to understand that until #Maryinka and #Avdeyevka are captured, shelling from barrel artillery will continue in its current mode. Stopping the shelling of #Donetsk requires serious movement west of #Donetsk towards #Krasnoarmeysk, where #Krasnogorovka, #Selidovo, #Kurakhovo and so on must also be taken.

So this is not an easy task. Even so, #Donetsk would remain within range of long-range MLRS and long-range artillery, but of course it would be much more difficult for the AFU to organize massive shelling.


https://t.me/sitreports/1767

Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 6 Dec 2022

#Crimea:

In the morning, Ukrainian drones attempted to attack the #Belbek airfield on the outskirts of #Sevastopol, but Russian air defence forces shot down all targets on approach.

#Russia's Border Areas:

In the #Kursk region, the enemy struck an oil tanker at a local airfield. There were no casualties in the incident and the fire was contained.

In #Surazh district, #Bryansk region, the AFU attempted to attack the Slava Combine. A drone hit a fuel tank but failed to inflict any significant damage.

Another 60-for-60 exchange of prisoners of war took place on the border of #Sumy and #Belgorod regions.

#Starobelsk Direction:

Ukrainian formations once again attempted an offensive towards #Kuzemovka, but were forced to withdraw under heavy artillery fire.

#Soledar Direction:

Intense fighting continues in #Bakhmut, #Opytnoye, #Yakovlevka and #Belogorovka. The enemy is suffering heavy losses in this area.

#Lugansk People's Republic:

Ukrainian militants have hit #Starobelsk with HIMARS MLRSs, injuring three employees of a local municipal enterprise and damaging several warehouses.

#Donetsk Direction:

Enemy militants once again shelled the #Donetsk agglomeration. A deputy of the DPR Parliament, a local musician and another person were killed by the impacts in #Donetsk. In #Gorlovka buildings of the Stirol chemical plant were damaged.

Russian Aerospace Forces launched several airstrikes on enemy positions in the vicinity of #Maryinka and #Kamenka.

#Zaporozhye Direction:

Amid stalled negotiations over the status of the #Zaporozhye NPP, Ukrainian militants have shelled #Energodar and the power plant's industrial zone again.

Russian forces launched a rocket attack on a Ukrainian army ammunition depot in #Stepnoye, on the outskirts of #Zaporozhye.

#Dnipropetrovsk Region:

The RF Armed Forces have carried out a missile strike on an infrastructure facility in #KrivoyRog.

Russian artillery shelled targets in #Nikopol, #Ilyinka, Dobroy Nadezhdy and #Marganets on the north bank of the #Dnipro River.

#Kherson Direction on Southern Front:

In the southern sector of the front mutual shelling of both sides continues. Russian missile forces and artillery have hit enemy positions in #Kherson, #Nikolaev and #Ochakov.

Enemy militants, in turn, shelled Golaya Pristan and the #Kakhovka region.


https://t.me/sitreports/1770

The killing of Maria Pirogova and another civilian yesterday in indiscriminate shelling of Donetsk
https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1600544402321072128

Isos wrote:Pretty dumb assumptions. In 2014 Russia was weajer than today with far less weapons including less Iskanders and Kalibr launchers and very few su-35.

They also where going to get involved in Syria.

Ukraine was a frozen conflict which wasn't in need for an intervention. Syria was much more important.

Putin trusted no one. Minsk was also about giving time to Russia to finish its work in Syria. Once the work was done there, they started taking care of Ukraine.

Moreover Minsk was between Russia France and Germany. Since France nd Germany can't decide for Ukraine, US being the master, Minsk had 0 value. US were and are the master abd the one taking decisions. Russia knows and knew it very well.

The nazis where also well trained in 2014 and the regular army is just as shitty today than it was back in 2014.

The weapons they received from the west came only since feb 2022.

All that bullshit about Russia not prepared and not seeing anything is dumb. They have their analysts and they made their choices. Some mistakes for sure but they knew very well what they did. Much more than some dumbass from twitter.

That's fine. Each side has its own view, of course.

As we can tell from the quote from Angela Merkel (probably the most influential EU figure in the last 40 years), the West sees the 8 years of frozen conflict as a major win.

Ukraine only losing 20% of its territory when half the population was pro-Rus in 2014 is definitely considered a win.

What matters is who has what at the end of the conflict. Being happy for winning time before getting destroyed is dumb.

Now Ukraine has better soldiers but for what ? Can they rebuild what was destroyed even if they win ? They estimate the losses to 500 billion $ and it's only a war on the east. Once they start pushing and smashing all their infrastructure in the western part it will be 1.5 trillion at least.

West will never pay that. They never paid for Lybian or Iraqi infrastructures they destroyed themselves and occupied the countries let alone rebuild Ukraine.

Ukrainians better beg now Russia to help them because in the case Ukraine "won" and russia stick with the 20% it seized only it will be left destroyed and thry will have no economy for the next 50 years. It will take them 100 years to rebuild an average country.

@Rybar's Analysis: Consequences of Systematic Russian Strikes on Ukraine's Energy System by the End of 6 Dec 2022

Rybar's team continues to analyse the consequences of the systematic fire attacks on Ukraine's energy system.

Yesterday's strikes, see here the Complete Report, hit #Lvov, #Vinnitsa, #Odessa, #Kiev, #Cherkassy, #Sumy, #Dnipropetrovsk and #Kharkov regions. But other regions also suffered: they were affected by overloads and blackouts.

The worst situation remains in #Kiev, #Sumy and #Odessa oblasts.

Up to half of consumers are without power supply, while the rest are supplied at limited intervals. But due to the state of the networks, outage schedules are hardly respected. Emergency outages due to network and equipment overloads occur very often.

Yesterday, we assumed that autotransformers were being hit again and it is unlikely that substations will suffer critical damage.

Today we can state that this assumption turned out to be correct: by the morning, power supply had already been restored in part of #Odessa's districts and critical infrastructure facilities. The remaining operational autotransformers continue to transmit electricity to 110 kV networks.

Despite the information vacuum around #Kiev, the main blow seems to have hit #Kiev rather than #Odessa.

Despite the developed network of substations and the presence of several thermal power plant sand the #Kiev hydroelectric power plant, the situation with electricity supply in the city and the region has failed to stabilise. Apparently, the cumulative effect of previous strikes on the capital's energy infrastructure is taking its toll.

The #Sumy region has virtually no generation of its own (with the exception of the low-power #Sumy thermal power plant): the region is very dependent on electricity supplies from the centre and the west of the country.

Therefore, when powerful strikes hit Sumy 330 and Sumy North 330 substation, practically the entire region is left without electricity. Something can be transferred through the 110 kV networks, but their capacity cannot compensate for the loss of 330 kV transmission.

🩸 Despite alarmist reports from Ukraine of almost eighty missiles being fired, yesterday's strike was neither the most massive nor the most destructive. Due to the competent work of the Ukrainian power engineers, the consequences were mitigated, but by no means completely negated.

Whereas only a month ago the Ukrainian energy system was comfortably holding on to scheduled customer outages, now things are not so rosy. Throughout the country, outages are emergency and unpredictable. Full operation of industry and transport in such conditions is difficult, though still possible.


https://t.me/sitreports/1779

The usual chorus of Russia fail over the recent deep strikes at targets at Engels and Ryazan misses a vital detail.
Since this attack was an obvious US engineered probing effort of Russian defenses, Russia would have negative
incentive to show all its cards. It is sad that four people died, but giving the US key military information that
it can use to attack Russia comes first. They should have warned their people to get out of the way, but that
would have given the satellite spies information. The amount of damage done was small so the deaths look like
a freak event. War always involves such losses.

I suppose my point can be fobbed off with the argument that Russia does not need to hide its strength. But there
are only so many solutions to missile defense problems. So giving away the distribution of Russian SAM systems
is a loss. The US has been harping about missile defense for over three decades. This includes the much less
publicized neutralization of Russia's missile defenses. The US has known about the USSR's and Russia's ABM
capability since the 1950s and there is no way they just ignored it. The talk about taking out Russia's nuclear
strike ability must be grounded on something other than masturbatory fantasies. So the deterrent against a
US war of extermination is not just about Russia's nukes, it is also about its ability to defend against any US
attack on those nukes.

Prompted by a reader, an in depth analysis of the attrition battle for Artemovsk

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/12/07/la-batalla-por-artemovsk/

@kvs Russia doesn't need to hide its AD forces since they are all very mobile and can change their configuration accross the country in few hours.

Their AD and radar forces **** up. Only luck saved those planes. If the drone fell 5 meter closer that kh-22 would have gone kaboom.

They say they intercepted the drones but too late it seems since they hit close to the targets. So last second interception at best.

umvulcan wrote:

1. I don't normally deal in what ifs.  I mean if my aunt had testicles she'd be my uncle or else she'd be some nonbinary person that the politically correct police would give special protections to.

2. However, for sake of argument, you are describing a dirty bomb.  From all I can gather about those, the conventional ordinance is far more destructive and lethal than the radioactive material and since Russia has some of the best NBC [nuclear, biological, and chemical] disinfectant equipment in the world the plane would be sprayed down, and put back into service within days assuming no structural damage and really the flight and ground crews would be decontaminated by being hosed down.  That's it. Dirty bombs are not the same thing as nukes.  The main threat is the blast by the conventional ordinance.  Trust me, dirty bombs were the stuff of nightmares in American media after 9/11.  Then people did studies that showed how fairly impractical they were and how little radiation they actually could hold.  Look radiocative waste is not something anyone wants but there is a vast difference between it and fissable material.

3. If I were Putin and they used a dirty bomb, well the orders get changed a bit and so I not only cut Ukraine off from the sea I also launch quick attacks to seize their NPPs and Belarus gets a bit bigger.  Dirty bombs are a dare, but they are not a nuclear exchange worthy response.

I think you are missing the point.
It's not about a dirty bomb repercussions per se, it's about the fact that the Ukrainian drone managed to damage Engels airbase at all, and was not intercepted until it got there.

Engels is not just any old airbase, it's a key facility, it's part of Russia's nuclear deterrence.
Russia considers conventional attacks on it's nuclear weapons, to be regarded as the first use of weapons of mass destruction, and therefore can retaliate using nuclear weapons.

If it was a dirty bomb, that would have disabled a key facility.
I am sure heads will roll about letting the drone reach the airbase.

lets see how next year will be.

Doomer meme, a little joking...

lets see how next year will be.

I see that Bandera's Christmas wishlist is being fulfilled by the little gremlins of Washington DC at the expense of US taxpayers. Nice to know that the number of artillery shells the US will be sending to the Ukraine is what Russia uses in 15 days, talk about losing the war of attrition.

@Isos,

You do not know what Russia needs to hide. It is not about mobility but response ability. The US wants such data. Russia is not
staging probing attacks into the US to obtain data on its response ability. Likely one of the reasons for the US stage managing the
Ukraine war is to probe Russia's defense ability and its military fighting ability. Russia has been deliberately not sending its best
equipment into Ukraine and limiting its engagement. So clearly there is an issue with information outflow which needs to be managed.

The incompetence theory is tin foil hat nonsense. Cliches about how the simplest explanation is true and how stupidity supposedly
explains everything are lame. Reductionist crap that is all about disengaging intellectual activity.