Sukhoi in the balance. Check in April-May 2024
05/10/2023
If it is not possible to master the repair of the hot part of the SaM146 engines, then, according to the calculations of the Irkut Corporation and the UEC, by the end of 2030, out of more than 150 SSJ100 aircraft in operation, only 28 aircraft will remain. About it told "Kommersant".
The SaM146 engine was created jointly by the French concern Safran and the Russian NPO Saturn. Repair of the hot part (gas generator) of the engine was carried out only in France.
According to some industry interlocutors of the publication, those SSJ100s that have been actively flying since the spring of 2022 will begin to “get up” en masse in a year. Airlines do not seriously count on the remotorization of aircraft for PD-8 engines, which can cost 200-500 billion rubles. for the entire fleet, and hope to arrange engine repairs in Iran. If the work on the hot part is mastered, then it will be possible to save 106 aircraft, follows from the Irkut letter sent to the carriers, to which the publication refers.
On February 8, 2023, during the NAIS-2023 exhibition, the UAC CEO said that the replacement of the SaM146 engines, including the cost of the turbines themselves, is comparable to the residual cost of the SSJ100 aircraft. Technically, it is possible to implement the remotorization of the aircraft, unresolved issues with airlines and the state, these are economic issues, Yuri Slyusar emphasized. In particular, the "significant cost" of the new PD-8s, he said.
Yuri Slyusar said that there are several dozen SaM146 engines in reserve. But they are not planned to be installed on SSJ-New aircraft, since these engines are needed to maintain the existing fleet of SSJ100 aircraft.
The Rostec Group of Companies denied a sharp reduction in the fleet of Superjet 100 aircraft by 2030. The state corporation reported that Kommersant refers to old calculations that were made in 2022 in order to provide, among other things, the most negative scenarios.
“Today is May 2023 and it is already obvious that this will not happen. UAC, Irkut and colleagues from other companies are doing everything to ensure that the country is provided with aircraft, and that the current fleet is serviced and continues to fly. Complicated systematic work on import substitution is underway, our own components and assemblies are being created. The possibility of remotorization on the PD-8 is being discussed, but we need to look at how economically feasible it is," Rostec commented and recalled that the SaM146 engines will be able to fly for a long time - Rostec and UAC intend to carry out all the necessary maintenance of these power plants independently.
"Let's handle it ourselves, without the West" - summed up Rostec in its tg-channel.
The article in "Kommersant" is called "Sukhoi in the Balance". In the summer of 2024, it will be clear whether the interlocutors of the publication were right and whether they correctly predicted the cessation of flights of part of the Superjets in about a year.
05/10/2023
Sukhoi in the balance
The manufacturer predicts a five-fold reduction in the SSJ-100 fleet by 2030
As Kommersant found out, the Irkut corporation and the UEC have calculated that by the end of 2030 only 28 “old” Superjets out of more than 150 will remain in operation if it is not possible to master the repair of the hot part of the foreign engines installed on the aircraft. Manufacturers have asked airlines to estimate the number of SSJs that should be replaced with the expected domestically produced PD-8s. According to some of Kommersant's interlocutors in the industry, those SSJs that have been actively flying since the spring of 2022 will begin to "get up" en masse in a year. Airlines do not seriously count on remotorization, which could cost 200-500 billion rubles for the entire fleet, and hope to arrange engine repairs in Iran.
As it became known to Kommersant, by the end of 2030, only 28 SSJ-100 aircraft may remain in operation due to the exhaustion of the service life of the Russian-French SaM-146 engines installed on them. Such a forecast “in the context of a shortage of replacement engines and the inability to repair its “hot part”” was made by the aircraft manufacturer Irkut Corporation and the United Engine Corporation (UEC, both of which are part of Rostec). If work on the hot part is mastered, then 106 aircraft will be saved on the wing, follows from a letter from Irkut (Kommersant has it) sent to carriers.
The aircraft manufacturer asked SSJ operators to report how many aircraft, in their opinion, it would be economically feasible to remotorise on the domestic PD-8, which the UEC is currently developing for SSJ-NEW.
The French Safran was responsible for servicing, designing and manufacturing parts for the hot part of the SaM-146 engine, which in March 2022 stopped its participation in the JV with PowerJet UEC. Deliveries of PD-8 are expected from 2024.
Irkut’s letter states that remotorization, “taking into account a significant amount of costs”, which in each case, in addition to engines, also includes the replacement of engine nacelles, the revision of pylons and wing box, the on-board cable network and auxiliary power plant systems, is expected with the involvement of state support measures . Its amount is not indicated.
The cost of a set of two engines is usually estimated at 50-60% of the price of a new aircraft. With the cost of the SSJ-100 at the end of 2021 about 2–2.5 billion rubles, the new engine, according to the most minimal estimates, will cost 1.3–1.8 billion rubles. There are about 150 Superjets in the fleet of Russian carriers today. Thus, the purchase of new PD-8s for 120 SaM-146 expired aircraft will cost 160–220 billion rubles. According to a number of Kommersant's interlocutors in airlines, in reality, taking into account all the necessary work, the price will be at least 1.5–2 times higher. “SaM-146 was mass-produced with the participation of the world’s largest engine builder”, says another Kommersant interlocutor, believing that “a PD-8 assembled from scratch will be much more expensive.”
Hopes of the aviation industry
The Ministry of Transport, in the aviation industry development strategy drawn up in the summer of 2022, assumed that all 170 short-haul aircraft (including SSJ, Yak-42 and Embraer) would remain on the wing by 2030. Irkut explained to Kommersant that their updated forecast and survey of operators reflect "efforts aimed at maintaining the stable operation of the SSJ-100 fleet." “It must be understood that some aircraft will inevitably retire from service over time, so our task is to make this process as predictable and planned as possible, to synchronize it with the supply of new domestic SSJ-NEW aircraft so that operators can maintain their carrying capacity,” noted in "Irkut". They added that, according to preliminary data from the airlines, "there is interest in the remotorization of the SSJ-100 fleet."
However, according to Irkut, if a decision on remotorization is made, an increase in the production of PD-8 will be required, since "the current capacities are primarily focused on the production of new SSJ-NEW aircraft."
The UEC told Kommersant that "the question of the economic feasibility of remotorization is still open." “We are open to dialogue with interested parties to discuss the timing and volume of deliveries of PD-8, if there is sufficient funding”, they noted, adding that they are doing “everything necessary to maintain the SaM-146 engines in working order in accordance with the approved schedules.”
A source close to Rostec assured that the specialists “have solutions and conditions that will allow them to continue operating the current fleet of SSJs with SaM-146 engines for a sufficiently long period.” “By this moment, a fairly large fleet of new Russian aircraft will appear, and the topic of remotorization will cease to be relevant,” he says.
Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, December 22, 2022:
"Remotorization in principle requires significant financial costs, and the economic feasibility for operators and lessors remains in the focus of attention."
Motor dilemma
According to one of Kommersant's interlocutors in the aviation industry, the position of the operators "in general terms boils down to a readiness to change engines if this happens at public expense." The final calculation of the sides for remotorization, according to him, has not been carried out: “The situation is a stalemate: either change for the entire fleet, or repair for the entire fleet.” The Association of Air Transport Operators turned to the Ministry of Transport with a request to provide subsidies for remotorization (see “Kommersant” dated April 10). But, according to some Kommersant sources in airlines, the industry no longer believes in the idea of remotorization: “There is no such money, and it is technically difficult.”
In addition, many interlocutors of Kommersant are skeptical about the ability of the UEC to increase the production of PD-8 engines to replace the SaM-146. According to the strategy of the Ministry of Transport, the planned production of PD-8 until 2030 will be 314 engines for 142 SSJ-NEW announced by that time, which is barely enough to form a full-fledged replacement pool for new aircraft. Now, according to various estimates, 10–14 SaM-146s remain in the replacement pool (not counting the separate Aeroflot pool). Rostec and UEC do not comment on these figures.
Few also believe in the likelihood of mastering the repair of the hot part of the SaM-146. “In our opinion, all conceivable human and financial resources of the UEC are thrown at PD-8”, one of Kommersant’s interlocutors explains. Three sources of Kommersant expect that the authority to extend the life and overhaul of the SaM-146 will be transferred to Iranian technical centers, where "40 years of experience with foreign engines have been accumulated" (see also Kommersant of April 14) .
Take care of the engine
Most SSJ-100 operators declined official comment. But, according to several interlocutors of Kommersant in airlines and the aviation industry, if the repair of the hot part of the SaM-146 is not mastered, the pessimistic scenario of Irkut may come true even before 2030. According to Kommersant's sources, in about a year, the engines of the SSJ Azimuth, Red Wings and IrAero, which flew a lot in 2022, may require an extension of the resource or "stand up". The relatively low flight time of SSJs from their largest operator, Rossiya, will probably allow them to be used before overhaul for three to four years, industry interlocutors believe. The average flight time of small SSJ operators in certain months was on average 2–3 times higher than the flight time of Rossiya, which “could afford to save resources and fly thriftily,” says a Kommersant source in the aviation industry.
A separate question is how airlines will pay for leasing if their SSJs are unable to continue flying due to the exhaustion of their engines.
According to Kommersant, now 46 SSJs belong to GTLK, 45 to PSB, another 39 to VEB.RF, and 20 to SberLeasing. Kommersant's source at STLC specified that by 2030, 22 aircraft would remain under lease, the rest of the lessors refrained from commenting.
The industry is arguing about the pace of creating an import-substituting SSJ
Officially, Rossiya announced that the aircraft leaving due to the end of the lease will be replaced in a timely manner by the new SSJ-NEW and MS-21. In total, Aeroflot Group expects to receive 210 MS-21s and 89 SSJs by 2030. A Kommersant source close to the management of Rossiya noted that all 78 SSJs in its fleet - from one year to 10 years old - are on lease, "the term of which for most boards will end before 2030." The issue of remotorization, he added, is within the competence of aircraft owners.
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