Russian Economy General News: #13

Why Gazprom shares fell, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 10.11.2022.

Those who want to make money on Gazprom collapsed its value.

Shares of the most important player on the Russian stock market - Gazprom - collapsed by more than 20% on Monday. The Russian stock market followed, too, flew down. All this is explained by the fact that Gazprom is preparing to pay out record dividends in its history. And naturally, there were more people who wanted to run into the last car and become a shareholder of the company. Will Gazprom be able to return to the previous value?

On Monday, immediately with the start of trading, Gazprom's shares began to fall by 30%. It was possible to stop this collapse due to the announcement of the Moscow Exchange from 10.15 Moscow time of a discrete auction for Gazprom shares.

The main reason is the dividend cutoff. What it is? It is worth clarifying that on September 30, the shareholders' meeting approved the decision to pay record dividends for the first half of 2022 - 51.3 rubles per share. This is about 26% of the closing price of the evening session of the Moscow Exchange on Friday. We are talking about the payment of 1.208 trillion rubles.

An important question is who exactly will receive the dividends. “The dividend cutoff is the date by which you need to buy a company's shares in order to be included in the shareholder register and receive the right to pay dividends from the company,” explains Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In the case of Gazprom, the deadline for buying shares to receive dividends was Friday 7 October, and the final list of shareholders will be drawn up on 11 October when the register closes.

It is logical that many tried to buy Gazprom shares on Friday just to get into the number of shareholders who received dividend payments.

“And after getting into the register, shares are most often disposed of, since dividend payments are already guaranteed for these securities, and investors shift investments into other securities. That is why, after the dividend cutoff, stocks usually become cheaper by the amount of the dividends themselves. This is exactly what happened this time, only with a dividend yield of 26%, Gazprom shares at a minimum fell by 29%,” says Chernov.

That is, it was the closing of the register of shareholders that collapsed the company's shares, and this happens absolutely always, the expert adds.

But will Gazprom's quotes return to their previous values? Gazprom shares began to recover in the afternoon, and they even managed to offset part of the morning's decline. However, it will be difficult for Gazprom to return to Friday's figures.

“Sometimes quotes rise to their previous values ​​within a month, and sometimes they continue to decline, everything will depend on the future prospects of the company itself. I believe that the recovery of Gazprom shares to their previous values ​​may be delayed.

It is quite possible that the dividend gap (the gap between the closing price of Friday, October 7 and the opening of trading on October 10) will not be closed this year,” Chernov believes.

The precedent set for blowing up two Nord Streams, attempts of sabotage by Ukraine against the Turkish Stream and the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge only exacerbate the geopolitical situation.

“Unless there is a significant improvement in the geopolitical situation, it will be difficult for Gazprom shares to close the dividend gap in the coming months. The company is suffering from the loss of the European market, an increase in the tax burden and a rather slow reorientation to China. Due to these factors, dividends for the second half of the year may amount to 10-15 rubles per share, and for 2023 - 10-20 rubles, which, in our opinion, is not attractive enough for a quick recovery in quotations, ”expects Sergey Kaufman, analyst FG "Finam".

Simultaneously with the geopolitical events, news came that the Swiss subsidiary of Gazprombank was curtailing all operations in this country. Switzerland purchases gas from export sites in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy. However, the risks of non-payment are not yet discussed.

“The curtailment of the Swiss subsidiary, in our opinion, will not affect gas exports in any way. In order to have problems with paying for gas supplies, it is necessary to disconnect Gazprombank from SWIFT. But even if this measure is applied to pay for gas supplies, we believe that a special exception will be made - it makes no sense for the EU to shoot itself in the foot in this way, ”says Kaufman. Rather, the EU will have problems not with payment, but with a physical shortage of gas in winter, he believes.

It is worth noting the influence of Gazprom on the entire Russian stock market. Gazprom shares make up about 15% of the Moscow Exchange index, so their decline has affected the entire market.

“Gazprom is the most important player in the Russian stock market, as it is the leader of the Russian stock market in terms of capitalization – at the beginning of September 2022, it grew to $102 billion. In previous years, its shares in investors' portfolios could reach 40–50% of the entire portfolio, so its influence on the market itself is great, and stock indices react most of all to changes in Gazprom's share prices,” says Chernov.

By the close of the main trading session, the Moscow Exchange Index showed a decrease of 1.43%, to 1916.97 points, the RTS dollar index - by 4.1%, to 963.88 points.

https://vz.ru/economy/2022/10/11/1181603.html

Russia may become the main exporter of sunflower oil in the world, 10.13.2022.

In addition to wheat, Russia may become the world's number one exporter of sunflower oil. This was stated by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers.

He recalled that last year the country ranked fifth in the supply of sunflower oil to the world market. This year, self-sufficiency in these products will exceed 200%. This is more than double the rate set in the Food Security Doctrine.

State subsidies will help Russian farmers to remain competitive and profitable. The government will allocate 4.8 billion rubles to stimulate the production of oilseeds (soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, flax and other oilseeds) in 43 regions.

For the second season in a row, record sunflower harvests are received in Russia. According to experts, this time it can reach 17 million tons - 7% more than last year. According to Mikhail Maltsev, director of the Fat and Oil Union, the oil and fat industry is ready to process both the fresh harvest and the large carry-over stocks of the last season. As a result, the production of sunflower oil will amount to more than 7 million tons, of which 4.7 million tons will be exported. That is, the export of sunflower oil may increase by 70% compared to the previous season.

"Taking into account the forecasts for a reduction in the volume of sales of sunflower oil to foreign markets from Ukraine, our main competitor, Russia can really seize the palm in the world market for the first time in many years," Maltsev calculates.

He also says the industry is supporting government measures to encourage oilseeds. Given the current global market conditions, such support should be significantly increased, primarily for rapeseed producers, the expert believes.

https://rg.ru/2022/10/13/rossiia-mozhet-stat-glavnym-eksporterom-podsolnechnogo-masla-v-mire.html

**** them for stupidity:

 [size=32]The Ministry of Agriculture assessed the risks of Danone leaving the Russian market[/size][size], 10.14.2022.[/size]


[size=32]The Russian factories of the Danone holding continue their activities as usual, jobs are saved, and products enter the Russian market, the Ministry of Agriculture said.[/size]



[size=32]They also noted that the production of dairy products in Russia has been steadily growing in recent years. According to Rosstat, for 8 months of 2022, the production of drinking milk increased by 3.1% compared to the same period last year, butter - by 10.9%, cheese - by 3.1%.[/size]



[size=32]Earlier it became known that Danone decided to leave the Russian market , considering this decision the best for staff, consumers and partners. Control over the company's Russian assets for the production of dairy and plant products will be transferred to other persons. But to whom and under what conditions this will be done, has not yet been reported.[/size]



[size=32]https://rg.ru/2022/10/14/v-minselhoze-ocenili-riski-uhoda-danone-s-rossijskogo-rynka.html[/size]

Valuable elements: Russian scientists have discovered a deposit of strategic metals on the Kola Peninsula, by Nadezhda Alekseeva and Ekaterina Klyko for RTRUSSIAN. 10.23.2022.

Russian scientists, together with foreign colleagues, discovered a geological formation on the Kola Peninsula - a dike rich in rare earth elements. Experts have established that it was formed about 400 million years ago due to hot mantle flows moving from the base of the mantle to the surface of the Earth. According to scientists, the metals found in the dike are of strategic importance for the civil and defense industries.

Scientists from the Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry. IN AND. Vernadsky (GEOKHI) RAS, together with foreign colleagues, discovered a geological formation rich in rare strategic metals on the Kola Peninsula. Their concentration is higher than in similar super-large deposits. The discovery of geologists was reported to RT in the press service of the Ministry of Education and Science. The results of the study are published in the journal Lithos.

According to scientists, the Kola alkaline-carbonatite province is located in the Murmansk region, with which the largest deposits of rare earth metals are associated, which are of strategic importance for the civil and defense industries. They fundamentally change the properties of materials. For example, adding a small amount of the rare earth scandium to aluminum alloys triples their strength and creates malleability.

Rare earth elements are used in radio electronics, instrumentation, nuclear engineering, mechanical engineering, the chemical industry, and metallurgy. In particular, niobium is used in superconducting materials. Niobium alloys containing titanium and tin are used in MRI scanner magnets.

Valuable elements are concentrated in dikes - this is how geologists call a vertical column of rock that can form as a result of the rise of molten magma from the bowels of the planet to the surface. 

The dike discovered by scientists contains a very high concentration of rare earth metals. According to the authors of the work, the rock contains a significant amount of niobium, zirconium, barium, strontium, iron, titanium, as well as volatile components, which allow metallurgists to control the crystallization temperature and viscosity of alloys.

All this is reflected in its (dykes. - RT ) mineral composition: the rock composing it consists of such extremely rare minerals as lamprophyllite, enigmatite, astrophyllite, nunkanbakhite,” said the head of the laboratory of geochemistry and ore content of alkaline magmatism of the GEOKHI RAS in an interview with RT , Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Leah Kogarko.

Experts have determined that the age of the open geological formation is about 370 million years. The chemical composition of the dike indicates that it was formed by hot mantle flows moving from the base of the mantle to the Earth's surface.

The discovery has not only practical, but also scientific significance. As Liya Kogarko explained, the uniqueness of the dike found lies in the fact that it is the result of the latest stage in the separation of alkaline magma into phases - its differentiation. The study of the geochemical composition of the rock will allow scientists to find out exactly how the process of concentration of rare elements in the cooling alkaline magma took place.

https://russian.rt.com/science/article/1063636-uchyonye-issledovanie-magma-metally

???

The Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 7.5%, 10.28.2022.

At the meeting of the Board of Directors on Friday, the Bank of Russia, as most analysts expected, did not change the level of the key rate.

It was kept at the level of 7.5%. The current growth rate of consumer prices  remains  generally low, contributing to a further slowdown in annual inflation, the Bank of Russia points out. Signals on the further movement of the key rate of the Central Bank did not give again.

Inflation

Annual inflation is gradually slowing down, the Central Bank notes. "In  September, the annual growth rate of consumer prices  fell to  13.7% (after 14.3% in  August) and, according to an  estimate on October  21  , decreased to  12.9%.  Despite the  ongoing decline in annual inflation, inflationary expectations of the population and  businesses are at  an elevated level and  slightly increased  compared to the summer months," the rate release  says.

The Bank of Russia predicts that  by the end of the current year, annual inflation will be  12-13% (previously, the Central Bank expected 11-13%).  In the revised forecast, the Bank of Russia took into account , among  other  things, the postponement of indexation of  housing and communal services tariffs from  July 2023 to  December 2022  . Further, the Bank of Russia expects annual inflation to fall to  5-7%  in  2023  and return to the  target of 4% in  2024.

https://rg.ru/2022/10/28/bank-rossii-sohranil-kliuchevuiu-stavku-na-urovne-75.html

Healthy independence: how is import substitution going in Russian medicine, by Maria Frolova for Izvestia. 10.30.2022.

New technologies are needed to ensure the economic and biological security of the country.

For Russia, the issue of building up its own competencies in the field of pharmaceuticals and medicine in general is becoming increasingly important - this, in particular, was discussed during a meeting between Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and the head of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency (FMBA) Veronika Skvortsova. New technologies are needed to ensure the economic and biological security of the country. Details about how import substitution in medicine is going on today were found out by Izvestia.

Import substitution trends

The classic approach to import substitution — the development and organization of production of Russian analogues of foreign medical devices and pharmaceuticals — was supplemented in 2022 by two new trends: parallel imports and the replacement of Western manufacturers by manufacturers from countries that have not imposed restrictions on trade with the Russian Federation.

— These trends are also noticeable in medicine, despite the fact that formally pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers have not left the market, but have only curtailed investments in new projects. Due to the closure of borders, difficulties in making payments and disruption of supply chains, it is possible to buy products, but increased risks and uncertainty in the timing of deliveries require diversification, ” says Vladimir Egorov, Senior Project Manager of the Skolkovo Foundation’s Biological and Medical Technologies Cluster.

The need for import substitution in medicine has, as expected, become one of the most difficult challenges for the industry - it is slow and difficult due to the versatility and multi-stage process, and also requires large time and economic resources.

As Yegor Osidak, technical director of the company - a member of the Moscow innovation cluster - Imtek, explains in an interview with Izvestia, today it is not enough to have a production base - it is necessary to provide this production with raw materials of the appropriate quality, develop and implement a quality management system (QMS) for each medical device, validate critical manufacturing processes and, finally, initiate the procedure for state registration of a medical device.

“Under normal circumstances, the average time to market for a medical product is up to five years. Now, in order to successfully and quickly carry out import substitution of critical medical technologies, close cooperation between manufacturers, regulators and legislators is necessary,” says Yegor Osidak.

In turn, Vladimir Egorov notes that the economic demand for certain medical devices on the market, if there is an administrative will to speed up the passage of regulatory procedures, can give a very powerful impetus to development.

Upward movement

As Valentin Tsyvova, deputy chairman of the Public Chamber’s (OP RF) commission on protecting the health of citizens and developing healthcare, says in an interview with Izvestia, today Russia is experiencing a steady increase in the production of medical devices, and much attention is paid to import substitution in medicine. For example, the Sibur company localized the production of syringes, laboratory plastic, systems for infusion and transfusion therapy.

- If we are talking about high-tech first aid, then it is worth mentioning our scientists, engineers and designers who are working on domestic surgical robots. They are being tested in operations on animals, undergoing preclinical trials, and their widespread use in medicine will soon begin,” says Tsyvova.

Russia also produces units for radiation therapy and diagnostics of oncological diseases. The country has its own laboratory of nuclear medicine, where for more than half a century, isotopes have been used to save human life: radionuclides find a tumor and even metastases and, having reached their goal, kill a cancerous tumor. Radionuclides for the treatment of liver cancer will be used for the first time in Russia - there is no such drug anywhere in the world.

As for medications, according to Valentina Tsyvova, the demand for L-thyroxine in patients with endocrine diseases has increased in the country. This drug must be taken for life.

- Its manufacturer is a German company, the drug disappeared from sale in Russia for some time. Our domestic counterparts appeared just in time - the plant in Zhigulevsk took over the entire production volume - 12 million packs per year, - says the expert.

As Tsyvova notes, the Russian pharmaceutical industry is not so dependent on the West: a shortage of medicines does not threaten the country. But, of course, there are problems - in particular, they relate to obtaining a registration certificate. While the equipment receives this identity, it may become obsolete.

Another problem is staff training. Modern medical equipment requires high qualifications and well-coordinated work of several specialists. Therefore, it is very important to train highly qualified personnel.

System work

With the departure of foreign manufacturers of test systems, there is a risk of a shortage of consumables for devices used for in vitro diagnostics, says Yegor Osidak. Prior to this, foreign firms supplied Russia with “package offers”: a device was purchased and ready-made test cassettes for it. The process was automated as much as possible. It only remained to load the patient's blood sample into the device, and the result was obtained promptly.

"However, this format of cooperation proved to be problematic almost immediately after the suppliers left: the devices work only with “branded” consumables, replacement is not provided there,” says the source of Izvestia.

Therefore, the creation of such equipment has become one of the priority areas of import substitution: organizations that manufacture diagnostic devices and are ready to immediately supply consumables for screening will receive development. However, until the production is debugged, manual screening on domestic test systems becomes the solution. Appropriate screening kits are already being produced in Russia and will be widely introduced.

In turn, Vladimir Egorov draws attention to the fact that sales and the geography of presence of Russian hemofiltration columns, which can be used, among other things, as part of the ECMO procedure, have grown significantly. In the context of a military operation, there is also a great interest in surgical materials and medical devices for wound therapy and in projects in the field of rehabilitation.

A number of endoprostheses for abdominal surgery, neurosurgery, PCLS, urogynecology, oncology, cardiac surgery, ENT have also been replaced and are actively sold on the foreign market; bioresorbable membranes for guided tissue regeneration in dentistry and maxillofacial surgery, for the regeneration of cartilage tissue in the joints.

“Most companies, after building a sales system for their products in the Russian Federation, begin to actively explore the markets of the CIS and the Middle East,” Egorov emphasizes.

Development prospects

According to Vladimir Yegorov, in the coming years, Russia is expected to see the emergence of domestic diagnostic medical equipment, from blood pressure monitors and glucometers to more complex solutions, such as ultrasound machines and tomographs. The groundwork for this exists - as well as individual products that have already received registration certificates.

— The project on personal medical assistants — the creation of a system for continuous remote monitoring of the condition of people with chronic diseases — can also be a driver here, says Egorov.

Yegor Osidak emphasizes that medical import substitution is vital for Russia. This is a critical sector of the economy, where, due to the "globalization" of the market, it was more profitable to use ready-made solutions, rather than develop your own. They are now trying to correct the mistake in the absence of a protective policy of their own manufacturer.

"A good example of this is support measures both at the local level, for example, development programs from the Moscow Innovation Cluster, and at the country level as a whole, for example, support programs from the Innovation Promotion Fund,” says the specialist.

The level of biotechnological production in Russia is at a high level, and with proper support, this will lead to the development of domestic mass production of various medical devices.

"However, it is necessary to take into account the mistakes of the past: when the political situation stabilizes, when a foreign manufacturer can again return to the market, the state must protect its manufacturer on the Russian market, ” the expert concludes.

https://iz.ru/1416997/mariia-frolova/zdorovaia-nezavisimost-kak-idet-importozameshchenie-v-rossiiskoi-meditcine

Imported detergents are leaving, giving way to Russian, by Tatyana Karabut for Rossiskaya Gazeta. 11.02.2022.

Russians are switching to domestic laundry detergents. International brands have greatly reduced the range. In addition, Russian powders and gels are cheaper than imported ones.

According to retail chains, sales of Russian laundry detergents in physical terms increased by about 70% compared to the same period last year, Igor Karavaev, chairman of the presidium of the Association of Retail Companies (AKORT), told RG. According to him, the share of domestic detergents in the assortment of chains has doubled on average, to 40-50%.

The sales of goods of the low price segment are growing especially actively - today it accounts for almost 60% of sales of laundry detergents. There is also a dynamic growth in sales of washing powders under private label retail chains (PL). Over the past five months, private label sales have almost tripled.

"The growth in demand for domestic household chemicals is due to a decrease in the range of international brands, an attractive price and a comparable high quality of Russian products," Igor Karavaev believes.

Back in the spring, against the background of sanctions pressure, a number of international corporations announced the suspension of investments in the Russian market and the reduction of the assortment in the country. Literally in April, NielsenIQ recorded a reduction in the range of washing powders by almost a third (32.7%).

From January to September 2022, in general, the dynamics of sales of washing powders turned out to be negative, NielsenIQ told RG. At the same time, the premium price segment demonstrates the largest drop - minus 15.8%. In the middle price segment, the decline is not so impressive - minus 5.6%. While smaller and cheaper brands grew in sales from April to September 2022. And among the key growing brands (in physical terms) Russian brands prevail. Some of them have increased their shares by seven times. If last year the share of sales of inexpensive washing powders was 54.7%, this year the economy segment was already purchased by 57%.

RBC wrote about similar trends, explaining the growth in the popularity of domestic brands not only by a decrease in competition after the reduction in the presence of international brands. According to the calculations of the Prodazhi.rf platform, foreign laundry detergents have risen in price more than domestic ones. From January to early October, the average price increased by 57%, to 246 rubles apiece. At the same time, already expensive imported products have risen in price by 50-100% over the year, while for Russian inexpensive brands, the cost growth ranged from 17 to 50%.

The increase in prices for domestic laundry detergents was explained by interruptions in the supply of imported raw materials from March to June, explained Petr Bobrovsky, Executive Director of the Association of Manufacturers of Perfumes, Cosmetics, Household Chemicals and Hygiene Products. Some Russian manufacturers of household chemicals imported up to half of the ingredients. So, enzymes, defoamers in powders and more are produced abroad. The restructuring of logistics required additional costs, and the components themselves began to cost more.

https://rg.ru/2022/11/02/stiraiut-iz-pamiati.html

Top chart. Russia 6th largest even back in 2018.

Probably larger than Germany this time next year given Germany's self inflicted economic plight.





Now the US$ based, sorry biased, GDP chart for contrast. Find Russia

Russia's GDP number is being scaled down without any justification. Why 3.99 and not 4? It is actually closer to 5 trillion but wrote:

It follows that Russia may realistically be the 4th or 3rd economy in the world.

Ruble share of Russian trade has doubled – Putin, 12.15.2022.

The president calls the currency “one of the strongest in the world”.

The share of ruble transactions in Russia’s foreign trade has doubled since the start of the year and now acc ounts for one third of the country’s settlements, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects.

According to the head of state, the use of national currencies instead of the US dollar and euro in trade with Russia’s international partners continues to grow.

"We see the development of a convenient and independent payment infrastructure in national currencies as a solid base for strengthening international cooperation,” the president explained.

We have already made good progress here. According to the latest data, the share of the Russian ruble in our international settlements doubled compared to last December to one-third, and together with currencies of friendly countries, this share exceeded one half,” Putin stated.

He also noted that the use of the ruble in trade settlements helped the overall performance of the Russian currency this year, saying the ruble “has become one of the strongest currencies in the world since the beginning of the year.”

https://www.rt.com/business/568301-ruble-share-russia-trade-putin/

???????? There is total blindness as to the causes of Russian inflation!

The Central Bank kept the key rate at 7.5 percent per annum, 12.16.2022.

The Central Bank expectedly kept the key rate at 7.5 percent per annum for the second time in a row.

MOSCOW, December 16 - RIA Novosti. The central bank kept the key rate unchanged for the second time in a row, the regulator said in a statement.

On December 16, 2022, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to keep the key rate at 7.5 percent per annum.

The Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to this level in September.

In October, the regulator interrupted the key rate cut cycle, leaving it unchanged for the first time since March.

Analysts polled by RIA Novosti expected the rate to remain unchanged, because, in their opinion, the Central Bank decided to take a wait-and-see attitude in the medium term.

"The Bank of Russia will make further decisions on the key rate, taking into account the actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target, the process of economic restructuring, as well as assessing the risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them," the statement says.

At the beginning of the year, the key rate was at the level of 9.5 percent per annum. At the end of February, against the backdrop of tougher sanctions and increased volatility in the financial market, the Bank of Russia urgently raised it immediately to 20 percent. This made it possible to stabilize the situation with deposits and prevent an inflationary spiral. Already at the end of April, the regulator reduced the figure to 14 percent, and then gradually brought it up to eight percent per annum.

The key rate is the minimum percentage at which the Central Bank issues loans to commercial banks for a week and at which it is ready to accept funds for deposits. Its size affects the rate of inflation.

https://ria.ru/20221216/tsb-1839141023.html

Russian government definitely needs an economic tweaking in the medium term.

Russia-Indonesia trade soars – envoy. 12.17.2022.

The southeast Asian country is a popular vacation spot for Russian tourists.

Trade between Russia and Indonesia has grown over 50% this year despite global tensions, the Russian ambassador to the southeast Asian country, Lyudmila Vorobyova, said in an interview with local newspaper Rakyat Merdeka..

According to the official, the two countries are working on a number of projects together, and Russia is actively invested in Indonesia.

“Relations between the two countries are very close … Despite the Covid-19 pandemic and general geopolitical tensions, last year we saw an increase of more than 50% in trade between our countries,” Vorobyova said, adding that there are many areas where cooperation can be improved.

The trade turnover between Russia and Indonesia has been steadily growing for three years now, from $1.9 billion in 2019 to $2.3 billion in 2020 and $3.3 billion last year. Russia supplies Indonesia with grain, fertilizers, oil, metal, and construction materials, among other products. Indonesian exports to Russia include animal and vegetable oil, rubber, textiles, and clothing.

Vorobyeva also noted that the Indonesian resort island of Bali is among the favorite destinations for Russian tourists.

“Ask any passerby on the streets of a Russian city what he knows about Indonesia. He will answer, Bali,” the ambassador said jokingly. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the flow of tourists from Russia to Indonesia was at almost 160,000 per year, but the numbers dropped during the lengthy lockdowns and haven’t recovered to pre-pandemic levels yet.

https://www.rt.com/business/568121-russia-indonesia-trade-soars/