Syrian War: News #22

magnumcromagnon wrote:

elconquistador wrote:

Those developments should be seen in this light.

I also very much believe that Russia would happily trade the dismemberment of Syria for blowing up US-Saudi relations and Turkey-NATO relations

Iran however, will never abandon Syria.

This is complete unsubstantiated nonsense. Do you realize how many times the Saudi's lied about introducing major investments in Russia? We've been hearing about them over the past 20 years, and the Saudi's failed to delivery every time. Do you realize that the Chechen wars and the insurrection in Dagestan and Ingushetia was a joint operation between Saudi Arabia and Turkey? There's a bridge in Brooklyn I want to sell you.  

Yes and Kadyrov Sr. was at one point an insurgent himself.

What's your point?

The_Observer wrote:

elconquistador wrote:

Those developments should be seen in this light.

I also very much believe that Russia would happily trade the dismemberment of Syria for blowing up US-Saudi relations and Turkey-NATO relations

Iran however, will never abandon Syria.

BS. First of all. KSA is pretty much in regret for the part it played in instigating and fueling this war. So much so that they are now proposing the readmission of Syria into the Arab League without precondition. Furthermore, their relationship with the war's current/primary aggressor nation, Turkey, is anything but smooth.

This one-dimensional look at the Middle East isn't helping anyone. Allegiances change faster than the wind. It's a conflict area where acting is done based on interests rather than ideology, which makes Turkish - Saudi cooperation in Yemen or even Syria (to counter Iran) a logical outcome

elconquistador wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:

elconquistador wrote:

Those developments should be seen in this light.

I also very much believe that Russia would happily trade the dismemberment of Syria for blowing up US-Saudi relations and Turkey-NATO relations

Iran however, will never abandon Syria.

This is complete unsubstantiated nonsense. Do you realize how many times the Saudi's lied about introducing major investments in Russia? We've been hearing about them over the past 20 years, and the Saudi's failed to delivery every time. Do you realize that the Chechen wars and the insurrection in Dagestan and Ingushetia was a joint operation between Saudi Arabia and Turkey? There's a bridge in Brooklyn I want to sell you.  

Yes and Kadyrov Sr. was at one point an insurgent himself.

What's your point?

The point is your theory is unsubstantiated.

Allegiances change faster than the wind.

Russia is willing to talk and trade and negotiate with anyone, but don't confuse that with US level duplicity where they leave their so called friends and allies hanging out to dry when it suits.

Russia is building air bases in Syria and naval port facilities there too.. they are not about to turn on Syria for any potential gain with Turkey or Saudi Arabia.

Russia wants a good long term solution that the Syrian people can live with, they are not about to change sides and start supporting Turkish or Saudi terrorists in Idlib or elsewhere.

Saudi Arabia however, seem to be open to talks because they realise they are in over their heads and if their people don't win in Yemen and Syria and elsewhere then their defeated reminents might take revenge on Saudi Arabia and currently they are not in a great place to meet that, so they talk with Russia.

The Russians seem to know how to deal and negotiate.

GarryB wrote:

Allegiances change faster than the wind.

Russia is willing to talk and trade and negotiate with anyone, but don't confuse that with US level duplicity where they leave their so called friends and allies hanging out to dry when it suits.

Russia is building air bases in Syria and naval port facilities there too.. they are not about to turn on Syria for any potential gain with Turkey or Saudi Arabia.

Russia wants a good long term solution that the Syrian people can live with, they are not about to change sides and start supporting Turkish or Saudi terrorists in Idlib or elsewhere.

Saudi Arabia however, seem to be open to talks because they realise they are in over their heads and if their people don't win in Yemen and Syria and elsewhere then their defeated reminents might take revenge on Saudi Arabia and currently they are not in a great place to meet that, so they talk with Russia.

The Russians seem to know how to deal and negotiate.

Russia is not in Syria for the Syrian people but for its own interests.

A couple of things that I consider the base premise

1. Russia has an exit strategy which it can execute at any time
2. Russia will want to wrap up the Syrian Question rather sooner than later. A 20 year long insurgency in Afghanistan is a nightmare
3. There is no military solution to the Syrian Question, the solution is a diplomatic one and involves regional players like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. I'll leave the US/Israel out of the question as they are problematic
4. Syria, or better said, Syrian regions like the areas held by the SDF or the headchoppers are expendable from a Russian perspective. Much more expendable than Belarus or the Ukraine for instance.

As such I don't find my theory far-fetched at all. The best option would be rapprochement versus Turkey and Saudi Arabia without US interference. Or working out a deal regarding the SDF held areas wherein the Turks get in a conflict situation with the US

That is hair splitting. All help is to some extent about self interest. And help in the face of the NATzO military and economic juggernaut
is hardly simple opportunism.

On the subject of the KSA, it is a western puppet regime that cannot by definition deal reasonably with Russia and any designated
western "enemy".

For Russia to sell out Syria would be an incredible loss of credibility for decades... strictly a no go.

Syria wasn't attacked for shits and giggles. It was attacked because they were in the way of the Qatari gas pipeline and they refused to take the proverbial silver and stab their Russian and Iranian allies in the back. If you want to prevent the US gaining total control over Europe's energy supplies then keeping Syria intact is absolutely essential.

And also the Assad curse is a very real and has wreaked terrible vengeance on many, many occasions. Best not tempt it.

^ It's worse than that. It wasn't primarily about a pipeline. Russia and Quatar have been cooperating on energy deals.

It's about imperial expansion and taking out any historic ally of the USSR. Syria was simply on the same list as Iraq and Libya. They want to destroy the legacy regimes of these countries. Even if that means destroying whole societies and leaving them as a hole in the ground.

You say Russia is there for its own selfish interests. Which is true. It just happens that Russia hates chaos , regime changes and instability. So their foreign policy objectives are good for the people in these countries.

If there is a menace running around your neighborhood destroying things , it's in your self interest and your neighbors self interest to prevent or stop it.

The main reason Russia went to Syria is to prevent another Libya. To save the institutions of the state. It's effectively a humanitarian mission.

Russia is doing business in Libya today. It would probably be doing business in Syria if Assad fell too.
Russia didn't have to do this. They almost didn't do it. Remember how close Assad came to falling ?

The Syrian Question should be looked at from a long term perspective. The Russian intervention is nearing its 6 year anniversary and I personally don't see them staying for another 6 years.

So far I haven't seen any roadmaps or strategies towards working out a viable solution. As stated before, militarily bringing the entirety of Syria under the government's control* is not an option. A diplomatic solution will require concessions, some big and some small

* Does the Syrian government even control its own territory anymore? As far as I am aware many areas have splintered into tribal allegiances and IRGC controlled militias.

As for the reason the Assad was ordered to go, the Syrian government owned its central bank and Syria's subsequent independency from multilateral globalist organisations like the IMF, World Bank and UN was a problem. Same goes for Libya, Gaddafi on top of that had the balls to start working on his own pan-African gold-backed currency.

Also the remark that Russia's intervention is basically a humanitarian mission, that's nonsense of course. More than half the population lives off ~700 USD wages stacked away in Soviet style hamster cages apartments but somehow the State has time and money to play the Good Samaritan somewhere far away in the desert?

It better not be true.

I simply cannot fathom how people think Assad will be governing 100% of Syria like before.
I said a few posts back, the breakup talks have begun even if disguised as something else. Russia has a certain interest in a part of Syria for its own needs and objectives, that is all.
Assad has very little bargaining power anymore and is at the mercy of Russian intervention, that removes his power or say in matters.
Russia has neither the funds nor the stomach to let this drag on for years to come. Once its bases to the west are secure and Assad has enough to consider it a country that will also provide a decent buffer to those bases, that will be that imo.
Turkey will be holding some of the land they annexed, golan heights style.
How the oil fields to the east are dealt with, I do not know. If the Americans want to stay, who is going to kick them out exactly?

Russia is not in Syria for the Syrian people but for its own interests.

Russia has interests in Syria but that includes ties with the Syrian people... otherwise they could simply go to ISIS or the Kurds and say let us keep Tartus and a few air bases and we can be your air  force.

Putin has said many times that Russia is there to destroy the terrorists because there are a lot of Russians and eastern european terrorists there and if they succeed they will only head back home to Russia and try the same so it makes more sense to kill them in Syria before they get skills and know what they are doing.

It is also about countering US plans to break the country so they can pump UAE gas through Iraq and Syria to Turkey to Europe.

1. Russia has an exit strategy which it can execute at any time

If they had such a strategy then why build a naval base at Tartus or the new airfields they are building in Syria?

Sounds like the opposite of an exit strategy.

2. Russia will want to wrap up the Syrian Question rather sooner than later. A 20 year long insurgency in Afghanistan is a nightmare

Not currently. It is an excellent place to test new and existing weapons in scenarios that are not hugely costly. They manage to rotor through aircrews to get real combat experience for their pilots, and their Special Forces are doing all the things the special forces are supposed to be doing. (and a fantastic job too I might add).

There is no military solution to the Syrian Question, the solution is a diplomatic one and involves regional players like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran.

Military situation will reduce the diplomatic options for some parties... Russian military action has transformed the diplomatic options for the Syrian government forces in the last few years.

I'll leave the US/Israel out of the question as they are problematic

They are both there for very specific reasons.... military action can render those reasons meaningless which would result in US and Israeli exit strategies being executed instead.

Turkey is involved for specific reasons too, so correctly identifying what they are and offering them an acceptable alternative is the way forward.

4. Syria, or better said, Syrian regions like the areas held by the SDF or the headchoppers are expendable from a Russian perspective. Much more expendable than Belarus or the Ukraine for instance.

Actually the ISIS regions will be the easiest to justify eliminating... that is why they are there afterall. It is the Kurds supported by the west that will be the problems... but keep attacking the oil and they will likely lose interest.

As such I don't find my theory far-fetched at all. The best option would be rapprochement versus Turkey and Saudi Arabia without US interference. Or working out a deal regarding the SDF held areas wherein the Turks get in a conflict situation with the US

If the roles were swapped around and it was US that needed to negotiate with a hostile Turkey and Saudi Arabia I would have said no way, but I think Russia is probably the best country for Assad to have on his side negotiating some sort of long term solution, or fighting for something better.

The Syrian Question should be looked at from a long term perspective. The Russian intervention is nearing its 6 year anniversary and I personally don't see them staying for another 6 years.

There are Russian forces in South Ossetia and NK... and they have been there rather longer than 12 years... there is no time limit or time table... the Russians in Syria are not spending billions a day like US interventions anywhere.

Also the remark that Russia's intervention is basically a humanitarian mission, that's nonsense of course. More than half the population lives off ~700 USD wages stacked away in Soviet style hamster cages apartments but somehow the State has time and money to play the Good Samaritan somewhere far away in the desert?

Sounds like your addiction to Kool Aide is effecting your judgement.

Russia is always on the brink of collapse or the most powerful in the universe.

Russia has not doubled its defence spending... why do you think this is an expensive operation they can't afford to continue with?

And if they leave in 6 years time are they taking everything with them and closing the air bases and naval ports?

Syria is located next to Israel and currently HATO member Turkey and US occupied Iraq... it will be wanting a Russian and Iranian presence on a semi permanent basis.  I don't think the rent will be high.

If the Americans want to stay, who is going to kick them out exactly?

Of course... America is invincible... I keep forgetting that...

Turkey will be holding some of the land they annexed, golan heights style.

I doubt the US or Turkey will be pumping enough money into the region to allow it to recover to even a fraction of peace time quality of life levels and when other parts of the country start developing and growing those parts are going to wonder if they made the right choices.

Turkish tanks and helicopters don't survive long against a modern well equipped enemy... I really don't think they want a conflict and bad relations with Russia... without Russia Turkey has no alternative and therefore no leverage with the US and the west.

Russia has shown the stomach and fortitude the west clearly lacks... compare Syria with Libya... in particular over the last few years the changes made and in which direction.

@GarryB I've lived along Russian youngsters for years in China. The fact that they en masse flock to China masquerading as 'Matthew from Minnesota' and 'Kelly from Texas' to illegally teach Chinese kids - thereby risking detention, deportation and forfeiting of funds is a telling sign that the economic situation in Russia ain't all that rosy

Which is underlined by themselves by the way.

Russia is in no position to throw money away on 'humanitarian' projects in Syria. Not that I care by the way, there is nothing wrong with a 'what's in it for me' mentality.

--

There is also a misunderstanding on the part of the withdrawal. With withdrawal I don't mean abandoning all bases (some of which have been manned since the time of the USSR), I mean withdrawing from the actual theatre of war and working out a solution that (might) involve the de facto break up of Syria

Because crod is right. What if the Americans, the French (are they still there?) and the Turks don't want to leave? Is Russia going to go to war with them over Syrian sovereignty?

I sure hope not.

elconquistador wrote:@GarryB I've lived along Russian youngsters for years in China. The fact that they en masse flock to China masquerading as 'Matthew from Minnesota' and 'Kelly from Texas' to illegally teach Chinese kids - thereby risking detention, deportation and forfeiting of funds is a telling sign that the economic situation in Russia ain't all that rosy

Which is underlined by themselves by the way.

Could be worse. They could be whoring themselves out on Onlyfans to finance their college debts just as they do in America.
Not that there's anything wrong with - girl power and all

elconquistador wrote:
Russia is in no position to throw money away on 'humanitarian' projects in Syria. Not that I care by the way, there is nothing wrong with a 'what's in it for me' mentality.

That's a weird line of argumentation...

By that logic none of the other players - America, Turkey, Iran, etc. are in any position to exert tremendous blood and treasure in that quagmire either - and yet all of these countries have much worse internal situation than the one Russia is in but its Russia that has to fold - why?

elconquistador wrote:
There is also a misunderstanding on the part of the withdrawal. With withdrawal I don't mean abandoning all bases (some of which have been manned since the time of the USSR), I mean withdrawing from the actual theatre of war and working out a solution that (might) involve the de facto break up of Syria

Because crod is right. What if the Americans, the French (are they still there?) and the Turks don't want to leave? Is Russia going to go to war with them over Syrian sovereignty?

I sure hope not.

Their stay in Syria is not without costs either. The thing is as long as it costs them even more then Russia should absolutely keep this whole thing going.

elconquistador wrote:@GarryB I've lived along Russian youngsters for years in China. The fact that they en masse flock to China masquerading as 'Matthew from Minnesota' and 'Kelly from Texas' to illegally teach Chinese kids - thereby risking detention, deportation and forfeiting of funds is a telling sign that the economic situation in Russia ain't all that rosy

Which is underlined by themselves by the way.

Russia is in no position to throw money away on 'humanitarian' projects in Syria. Not that I care by the way, there is nothing wrong with a 'what's in it for me' mentality.

.

Or really. You seem to be drinking a lot of the muh Russia economy kool aid

Elconqistador is another retard spewing shit he doesn't understand and can't back up with facts cause of "muh anecdotal evidence cause I talked to Russians in China" stupidity.  It's actually the basics to bring both retarded and a troll in an arguments sake.

1) Russia's economy has been bad since forever according to bumbasses. Yet, they manage to pretty much weather every form of sanctions and start import substitution.  Wow, a sign of bad economy, right fellow retards?

2) Russia is gonna split Syria. Why? Dunno. Just because one retard thinks so.  If we believed everything said by Joe blow nobodies, then we would believe no Russians are in Syria and Russians are in Ukraine.

The problem is, everyone has an opinion.  They should though keep it to themselves so they don't sound so stupid like elconqistador does.  Much like his fellow friends like Ultron and Ultimate Warrior.

Backman wrote:

elconquistador wrote:@GarryB I've lived along Russian youngsters for years in China. The fact that they en masse flock to China masquerading as 'Matthew from Minnesota' and 'Kelly from Texas' to illegally teach Chinese kids - thereby risking detention, deportation and forfeiting of funds is a telling sign that the economic situation in Russia ain't all that rosy

Which is underlined by themselves by the way.

Russia is in no position to throw money away on 'humanitarian' projects in Syria. Not that I care by the way, there is nothing wrong with a 'what's in it for me' mentality.

.

Or really. You seem to be drinking a lot of the muh Russia economy kool aid

And how do these metrics prove that the average Russian has money to spend on 'humanitarian' missions abroad

miketheterrible wrote:Elconqistador is another retard spewing shit he doesn't understand and can't back up with facts cause of "muh anecdotal evidence cause I talked to Russians in China" stupidity.  It's actually the basics to bring both retarded and a troll in an arguments sake.

1) Russia's economy has been bad since forever according to bumbasses. Yet, they manage to pretty much weather every form of sanctions and start import substitution.  Wow, a sign of bad economy, right fellow retards?

2) Russia is gonna split Syria. Why? Dunno. Just because one retard thinks so.  If we believed everything said by Joe blow nobodies, then we would believe no Russians are in Syria and Russians are in Ukraine.

The problem is, everyone has an opinion.  They should though keep it to themselves so they don't sound so stupid like elconqistador does.  Much like his fellow friends like Ultron and Ultimate Warrior.

Take your pills Mike, you come off like a schizo.

elconquistador wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Elconqistador is another retard spewing shit he doesn't understand and can't back up with facts cause of "muh anecdotal evidence cause I talked to Russians in China" stupidity.  It's actually the basics to bring both retarded and a troll in an arguments sake.

1) Russia's economy has been bad since forever according to bumbasses. Yet, they manage to pretty much weather every form of sanctions and start import substitution.  Wow, a sign of bad economy, right fellow retards?

2) Russia is gonna split Syria. Why? Dunno. Just because one retard thinks so.  If we believed everything said by Joe blow nobodies, then we would believe no Russians are in Syria and Russians are in Ukraine.

The problem is, everyone has an opinion.  They should though keep it to themselves so they don't sound so stupid like elconqistador does.  Much like his fellow friends like Ultron and Ultimate Warrior.

Take your pills Mike, you come off like a schizo.

You are the one that needs pills.

If the Russian economy was bad as you say, than western media would have been all over it.

The chance to sell out Syria was when the Saudis offered Russia billions of dollars and Russia refused.

If Russian economy was bad than, Russia would not have been expanding militarily(the new base in Sudan.)

There are always to be some that will go abroad, would not surprise me if white scientists from the west came to Russia(the way the west is treating them, they might not have a choice.) The point that a little bit of Russians are going to a friendly country to teach, does not mean Russian economy is done.

elconquistador wrote:

Backman wrote:

elconquistador wrote:@GarryB I've lived along Russian youngsters for years in China. The fact that they en masse flock to China masquerading as 'Matthew from Minnesota' and 'Kelly from Texas' to illegally teach Chinese kids - thereby risking detention, deportation and forfeiting of funds is a telling sign that the economic situation in Russia ain't all that rosy

Which is underlined by themselves by the way.

Russia is in no position to throw money away on 'humanitarian' projects in Syria. Not that I care by the way, there is nothing wrong with a 'what's in it for me' mentality.

.

Or really. You seem to be drinking a lot of the muh Russia economy kool aid

And how do these metrics prove that the average Russian has money to spend on 'humanitarian' missions abroad

In every industrial economy today , there are really rich people and really poor people. It's just a function of the unbacked fiat monetary system that every country is using today. Russia is the only country that is trying to harden up its currency by buying gold.

But either way , that wasn't even your point. You believed that your little sob story about some poor Russian , said something about the structure of the Russian economy. Well guess what. It doesn't.

You say X number of Russians are living on $700 a month and you dont even seem to realize that $700 a month in rural Russia isn't the same as $700 a month in the west. The cost of living is equally low. Someone living in Switzerland on $2500 a month is no better off.

par far wrote:

elconquistador wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Elconqistador is another retard spewing shit he doesn't understand and can't back up with facts cause of "muh anecdotal evidence cause I talked to Russians in China" stupidity.  It's actually the basics to bring both retarded and a troll in an arguments sake.

1) Russia's economy has been bad since forever according to bumbasses. Yet, they manage to pretty much weather every form of sanctions and start import substitution.  Wow, a sign of bad economy, right fellow retards?

2) Russia is gonna split Syria. Why? Dunno. Just because one retard thinks so.  If we believed everything said by Joe blow nobodies, then we would believe no Russians are in Syria and Russians are in Ukraine.

The problem is, everyone has an opinion.  They should though keep it to themselves so they don't sound so stupid like elconqistador does.  Much like his fellow friends like Ultron and Ultimate Warrior.

Take your pills Mike, you come off like a schizo.

You are the one that needs pills.

If the Russian economy was bad as you say, than western media would have been all over it.

The chance to sell out Syria was when the Saudis offered Russia billions of dollars and Russia refused.

If Russian economy was bad than, Russia would not have been expanding militarily(the new base in Sudan.)

There are always to be some that will go abroad, would not surprise me if white scientists from the west came to Russia(the way the west is treating them, they might not have a choice.) The point that a little bit of Russians are going to a friendly country to teach, does not mean Russian economy is done.

Do you and your friends lack reading comprehension skills?

Maintaining a small military base in a geographically relevant area does not equal fighting and endless insurgency somewhere in the desert

The Russian economy is not doing bad judging by the political situation it is in, but can and must not in any way engage in needless wars of attrition that can be turned on and off by foreign agitators that have a combined GDP 100 times the size of Russia's, have power over the world reserve currency and can create money at will

Bunch of hypocrites on top of that. Half of the membership here is Russians living abroad. Just pack your bags and go back to Russia if its such a great economy. Strangely enough it's always roundtrips though.

The bunch of you are much alike low IQ muzzies. All talk about how bad it is but too much of a cuck to actually say goodbye to comfort and hedonism and start building up your own country.

Pathetic.

As for Russians living abroad, the moment they'd offer visa free travel half the Russian youth would be bunking three high in London and Berlin. You really aren't any different from the Poles, Bulgarians or Ukrainians. The fact that Russian girls are still hooking up with ugly greasy Westerners (or Chinese for that matter) says a lot.

I am a big fan of Russia/Putin and see it as one of the last bastions of normalcy, tradition and the natural /divine order but you guys should really get rid of the siege mentality and the fan boy-ism. You sound like a scorned woman when called fat.

As for your suggestion that high skilled Whites (capital W) coming to Russia, I wouldn't bet on it. Unless its for non-economic reasons. Asia is the place to be. Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, China, even CBDs in places like Manila, Saigon and Bangkok have many sharply dressed White business guys walking around these days