Syrian War: News #21

Azi wrote:...
The number will rise! I don't know what kind of attack happened, against a convoy or the headquater in Idlib...but for sure he angered Russia immense, they told Turkey 1000 times where the red lines are and Turkey ignored it.

It was HTS headquarters in Idlib City but obviously it was chock full of Turk officers and soldiers for months and everyone and their babushka knew that

picture speak betters that words..  

Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
2h
AD missiles launched towards North #Aleppo CS

Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
2h
Radar showed 2 confirmed hits on a slow/small targets ~ low altitude

Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
3h
The forces began moving into Saraqib #Idlib axis about an hour ago the target is farther than Al Nyrab

The night might carry more escalations after Turkey shifted the aggression into another level (i will talk about it at the right time)

Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
3h
A no fly zone might be issued in the next few hours
Even to the civil airliners

Syrian_MC
@Syrian_MC
·
3h
Waiting for the Turkish MoD to cry about its fighter jets being ‘harassed’ over Turkey just like the old days.

opinion...
Based on the comments of @Syrian_MC in twiiter.. that appears to have inside knowledge..  of what happens
in idlib ,insider information or close to it.. it looks like Turkey did something that scaled things to a new level,
so what could that be?  and its seems to be related with syrian airspace.. since they saying will close it ,even
to civilian planes.. mmmm  so many hints.. perhaps Turkey used a civilian airliner as a shield to attack with its jets Syrian army positions.. or maybe Turkey attacked Russian outpost with its airforce..??   whatever it happened.. they feel the need to keep silence about it.. and talk about closing airspace ,even to civilian planes..
and what kind of nuts will send a civilian plane over idlib ??  

Anyway ERdogan options are very limited.. he will have no way to remove the syrian army , Russia and iran from syria.. he can destroy the russian base if he go total retard mode..because is too close to turkey border and s-400s were never designed to work that way. but that will be seen as a declaration of war ,
and it will be green light to bomb all turkey forces in syria.. Russia can heal its wounds , and continue supplying
syria from the iranian air corridor.. and russian caspian sea will hit all turkey positions non stop... and also the
black sea will be a graveyard of turkey navy..  Russia can use deadly force against turkey to force them to abandon syria.. the military will have to choose between removing Erdogan to save their navy or a full war with
Russia that he will lose..  im sure plans to remove Erdogan had to be planned already.. between the generals..
because to risk a  full scale war with Russia in defense of losers...for a small piece of land in syria is insanity.
he don't even have the oil..that he was stealing from kurdistan zone.. it was taken by american troops.. and what kind of economic future Erdogan expect going into war with their major trading partners ? that is china and russia..   , he will lose so much ,fo so little.. that you have to think if the guy suffer from brain dysfunction.
not ammount of money that Qatar or US offered him ,to continue the war.. will justify the monumental destruction turkey will face on its economy , if go into a full scale war against russia.. he risk losing even territory.. like northen cyprus or istanbul ,depending on how far he go in hostilities against Russia. Because
when georgia attacked Russian soldiers.. they permanently lost a lot of territory to russian army.. Erdogan antogonizing russia also will make putin to arm the kurds ,to fight their military .and shotdown their planes .in an endless war in his own homeland.. those high elevation mountains in turkey will be perfect for manpads ,to take
down any turkey plane.. at any altitude. I think probabilities do exist.. that he will sooner or later Erdogan will realize ,that his war on Syria will have a very serious negative consequences for turkey economic future. Americans only give loans.. as they did to ukraine. and they don't give free money . Im sure that a painful economic collapse of turkey economy ,will be very convincing reason to stop the war there and throw the towel.

Russia future actions ,liberations of cities ,need to take into account that if turkey invade syria ,their first target
will be to capture latakkia and the russian base.. and remove syria from coast.. Russia will need to use tactical very low shield nukes to push back a turkey  invasion there.. to defend their 2,000 soldiers there and base.. that will change erdogan perpective ,knowing he face a major dead end if continue fighting russia and syria.

update.
well it looks the hostility was an attempt of turkey army to take down a Russian bomber su-34 yesterday.
the russian bomber was flying very high.. away of manpads range and still had to do major maneuvers to avoid a medium range missile.  either they fired cross border with f-16s at the russian plane.. or they deployed air defenses inside syria...  so this will definitively if confirmed ,this truly happened ,means ,turkey and russia relations will never again recover after this..  even if erdogan agree to retreat ,things will never be the same..

in other news... not that it surprised me in anyway...
but ERdogan after calling for a meeting with NATO for help.. ..this is what erdogan got..
so this is for article 5 secretaries and fanboys..




now reality is.. that article 5 is just a piece of paper... trump could have used that ,against iran when attacked
their base and he didn't do shit.. he changed dramatically his tone towards iran.. and began to offer iran a new nuclear deal..  

Nothing of this at all is news to me...
US foreign policy is never bound to pieces of papers..agreements or treaties , or any international law..
US foreign policy is only bound by interest.. if something is good for americans.. then they will do it.. is that simple.. this is the only treaty ,United States follow.. it is good for american elites this or that? if answer is no ,then they will not do it..

So it is good for washington dc a war with Russia in defense of erdogan ? absolutely NO
russia can nuke ankara tomorrow and completely wipe it out.. including erdogan government , and NATO will do nothing.they will actually side with Russia and say how Erdogan  provoked it ,and so article 5 doesn't apply.
This is because a nuclear war with Russia is never in the interest of US elite...and if they can't predict
Russia response to an aggression and have a lot of doubts.. then will not do it. this is the point of NATO attacking
Syria ,and IRAN and venezuela..and serbia.. to fight Russia indirectly.. they provide weapons to mercenaries to fight russia.. and they can do this ,only because of putin weakness ,and politeness..and rules of engagement are very slow and tolerant with hostilities. ...but if they knew putin was a very violent ,unstable and emotional person. like erdogan.. then they will not dare to do any of this proxy wars.. because Russia will strike at NATO directly.. if find weapons of them..  Now ERdogan knows in painful way ,that Russia military was not bluffing that they will return fire if attacked.. or SAA attacked.. This give the door open for Erdogan to retreat... to convince
him by the use of force ,that he have no chance to stop syria and russia in idlib and if erdogan continues his rethoric ,he risk losing popular support from his own army.. and even face a coup

Erdogan is opening borders for migrants into EU.

He just lost any hope of EU support. US already said no for the patriot, he can't expect them to help him fighting SAA+Russia.

A Turkish official told SPIEGEL that at least 50 Turkish soldiers had died

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/idlib-tuerkische-soldaten-sterben-durch-luftangriffe-in-syrien-a-f42bf8b4-e061-4a7c-a697-7fc97fe37c3a

Killing is bad ,these soldiers have families, but what turks expected to find in syria and libya, tons of flowers ??

Sending your slodiers to occupy other's lands means they may be get killed , you just need to wait and start count the dead bodies .

You need to rule syria and libya ,well be ready to pay the bill , Erdogan played the wrong game with the wrong players , his ego blinded his eyes .

Turkish retaliation strikes this morning. Look likes gloves are off and the Turk is waked up.

Even the fleeing arent spared. Flying sectarian extremists everywhere.

'Battlehardened my ass.

[MEDIA=twitter]1233302394622095363[/MEDIA]

[MEDIA=twitter]1233189386377887745[/MEDIA]

[MEDIA=twitter]1233200707567792128[/MEDIA]

They are more funny than the indians during the border clash with pakistan


Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu
·
1h
BREAKING — Turkey destroyed 5 Syrian military helicopter, 23 tanks, 23 howitzers, two air defense systems (SA-17, SA-22) and “neutralised” 309 Syrian regime soldiers: Turkish Defense Minister Akar

Twitter is closed in Turkey. All those video from drones are likely old video. Turkey asked for the permission to fly armed drones there yesterday and russia said no.

Of interest at the NATO site is this

“I am happy to announce that we have been able – collectively – to overcome the impasse we have faced for the past few days,” said NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson at a press conference on 16 February. “These measures are intended to provide Turkey solely with defensive assistance.”

On 19 February, NATO’s top defence committee authorised Alliance military authorities to deploy NATO AWACS aircraft, as well as missile and chemical and biological defences to Turkey.

The decision follows the Defence Planning Committee’s decision of 16 February, which tasked the NATO military authorities to undertake planning for the three possible defensive missions to protect Turkey:

1 deployment of NATO Airborne Early Warning Aircraft (AWACS) aircraft;

2 NATO support for the deployment of theatre missile defences for Turkey;

3 NATO support for possible deployment of Allied chemical and biological defences.

The plans were reviewed and approved by the Committee at its session on 19 February. They will now be implemented as a matter of urgency.

https://www.nato.int/cps/us/natohq/news_19930.htm

1 deployment of NATO Airborne Early Warning Aircraft (AWACS) aircraft;

2 NATO support for the deployment of theatre missile defences for Turkey;

3 NATO support for possible deployment of Allied chemical and biological defences.

1) Turkey already has awacs.

2) it's on thing to support. Another to send. So far no one expressed intention of sending any air def system and they asked them 2 or 3 weeks ago.

3) totally useless. Shows that NATO "helps" Turkey. Only a symbolic move.

Turkey released a whole lot of drone IR videos showing destruction of SAA assets. Undated but mucho damage so presumably to boost that they are responding to the deaths yesterday.

Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu
A new footage by the Turkish military. Local tv says these are from last night in response to the killing of Turkish soldiers in Idlib by the Syrian government

Video embedded here https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1233299782644445190



If it was an HQ in Idlib city that was hit it will be interesting if they admit to who was killed. As might be expected the numbers are slowly increasing as the badly injured die.


William Armstrong
@WJ_Armstrong
·
20m
Turkish TV stations live broadcasting migrants setting out from Turkey's western coast hoping to reach Greece

Where is Behun, see last para below?

This HQ it would be a SAA priority target suddenly in artillery range due to the very rapid advance of the SAA as per the first Russian comment below and a big Turkish Army fail for not moving them out faster.


Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
4h
The Russian MoD released a statement stating that the Turkish servicemen who came under fire were located in the formations of terrorist groups, and they were fired at by Syrian troops. It said Russian Air Force aircraft were not involved in the strike.
Минобороны России: атакованные в Идлибе турецкие войска находились среди боевиков
Авиация РФ не наносила удары в районе населенного пункта Бейхун в зоне Идлиб, подчеркнули в ведомстве
tass.ru

3h
The statement said that Russia has constantly asked Turkey for the coordinates of its forces in Idlib, and that Russia immediately coordinated a ceasefire after learning about the Turkish casualties and helped ensure their safe evacuation. 36/
МО РФ: находящиеся в Идлибе террористы предприняли попытку проведения крупной наступательной...
Российский Центр по примирению враждующих сторон для исключения любых угроз безопасности находится в постоянном контакте с Идлибским координационным центром.
tvzvezda.ru

·
3h
The Russian MoD statement also said, "according to the coordinates transferred by the Turkish side to the Russian Center for Reconciliation there weren't any Turkish military units in the area of Behun and should not have been any" 37/

Another Pantsyr gone.

Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu
· 3h
BREAKING — Turkey destroyed 5 Syrian military helicopter, 23 tanks, 23 howitzers, two air defense systems (SA-17, SA-22) and “neutralised” 309 Syrian regime soldiers: Turkish Defense Minister Akar

Only a child would believe those numbers.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Another Pantsyr gone.

Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu
· 3h
BREAKING — Turkey destroyed 5 Syrian military helicopter, 23 tanks, 23 howitzers, two air defense systems (SA-17, SA-22) and “neutralised” 309 Syrian regime soldiers: Turkish Defense Minister Akar

To be fair, The Turks could be blowing those numbers up but if they aren't the russians really let the turks have their way with the SAA, what a nice ally Russia was in that case, if those numbers are accurate.

I suppose that this could be what jerked the Russians into striking not at the Turkish artillery, which didn't seem to have had much effect on stopping or reducing Turkish support for the terrorists, but higher up the command chain where it has certainly got some attention.

Not a lot out there on what has happened over the past 24 hours.

auslander wrote:Only a child would believe those numbers.

All the Turkish videos, and there are a lot, soon adds up. Then we have

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
46m
#UPDATE: Reports: As a result of Turkish strikes on Abu al-Duhur & Kuweires Airbases the following Syrian equipment was destroyed:

-5 Helicopters
-1 Pantsir air defence system
-1 BuK-M2 air defence system


monitoring
@warsmonitoring
· 1h
Losses of SAA are staggering, haven't seen this since the second fall of Palmyra.

So far I counted destroyed and captured equipment:

30 - Tanks
20 - SPGs
15 - BMPs
7 - BM-21s

TOTAL: 72 pieces of heavy equipment

Syria has tons of old t-55 and old bmp-1 that were probably taken from reserve. Soviets gave them thousands of tanks. It's not a big deal.

Turkey loses cost more than those old t5t and bmp-1. Only the drone costed 30 million $.

Concerning those strikes yesterday, I wouldn't believe them because a) they needed green light from Russians to send drones and helicopters for damage control and evacuate deads and didn't get them. How would they send in armed drones then ?  B) twitter is closed. Everything you see is propaganda and those twitter OSINT are crap. They just copy/past what other write, most of them are jihadist when it comes to inside Idlib publications.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:That's not even counting the armor they lost to rebels, again IF those numbers are accurate. The Russians bent over to let the turks destroy the SAA.

So the war is over now and the SAA lost?