Syrian War: News #20

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Are Turkish artillery pieces inside Syria or in Turkey?

From what I can see from google earth, Aleppo is too far away from the border for being reached by existing turkish artillery from turkish territory.

If they are inside Syria they are part of occupation forces and they should be "fair game" for the SAA...

Inside but that's well known and fair game doesn't matter.

War isn't about whats fair, Turks know that the SAA cannot target them and without getting destroyed in return if they do.

Turks are using this to their advantage.

Etc "Go on Attack us, it gives us rights to bomb you 30x worse in return", This allows the Turks, for the most part, to get around the limited protection the Russians are giving the SAA.

And what about the turkish kurds? I thought they would welcome the opportunity of seeing Turkey busy with many foreign fronts to get some revenge at home...

Even if Turkey has artillery just inside it's territory, the SAA can target them. Without anyone permission. And it is not escalation either. Just border skirmishes and clashes. Keeps the Turks in own territory. Also range not entirely the dominant factor, in artillery, but other factor important too. Like having accuracy.  Advantage with light weight Syrian artillery, is mobility. Take a few shots and move. So no need for heavy Russian artillery. Syrian can DIY. If they control border area. Which they will do shortly. And are mobile warfare. Turks can not hide deep inside own territory. Syrian give chase into Turkish territory. What? You say Turks come forward near Syria again, to stop Syrian Artillery? OK, job done. Target is in range again.............


https://youtu.be/z7lZPSZFQak

nomadski wrote:
Even if Turkey has artillery just inside it's territory, the SAA can target them. Without anyone permission. And it is not escalation either. Just border skirmishes and clashes. Keeps the Turks in own territory. Also range not entirely the dominant factor, in artillery, but other factor important too. Like having accuracy.  Advantage with light weight Syrian artillery, is mobility. Take a few shots and move. So no need for heavy Russian artillery. Syrian can DIY. If they control border area. Which they will do shortly.

SAA Targets the Turks, the Turks will hit them much worse in return the SAA knows this and unlike turkey, they cannot afford heavy losses.

The battlefield is hardly as simple as you portray.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:And what about  the turkish kurds? I thought they would welcome the opportunity of seeing Turkey busy with many foreign fronts to get some revenge at home...

I am not very familiar with what's going on with the PKK, I don't deal with them or have to.

I'd ask someone who would know more about that subject than me.

How many casualties, is Turkey ready to give in Syria?  It is not just question of inflicting casualties. But sustaining casualties. The Usrael is for example, loose a war, if 10 of them dead...........And you are right it is not as simple as YOU portray....

Jabal has fallen the SAA are within striking distance of the old Sheikh army base, Now if I was the SAA commander my plan from here would be rather then advance forward anymore start taking land from the bottom up.

Turks aren't posted down in the Marat area, so this would be easy land to recapture.

nomadski wrote:
How many casualties, is Turkey ready to give in Syria?  It is not just question of giving casualties. But sustaining casualties. The Usrael is for example, loose a war, if 10 of them dead...........And you are right it is not as simple as YOU portray....

Erod is prepared to give up tens of thousands, which is a small number for him to annex the areas he wants. But I highly doubt the SAA could bleed the Turkish army for even 10k.

Erod isn't someone who cares about others lives and he has all the power in turkey.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Jabal has fallen the SAA are within striking distance of the old Sheikh army base, Now if I was the SAA commander my plan from here would be rather then advance forward anymore start taking land from the bottom up.

Turks aren't posted down in the Marat area, so this would be easy land to recapture.

Will watch with interest. Is that Jabal Qebtan?

I believe so, think your spelling is wrong but I believe whats what you mean.

Edit: SAA made an attempt to retake the base but was repelled.

Turkish arty played a roll in this.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia has been very reluctant to provide Assad with those types of weapons even if they did, I don't see Russia giving them enough guns to give the SAA advantage in Arty strikes. The Turkish army strikes have been bigger than anything the SAA has been putting up recently.

SAA general has to consolidate many guns to perform mass saturation attacks in one area. The Turks have been able to do it in multiple areas, Now I am not saying Turkish arty alone will win the war. I am simply saying in arty the Turks have more and are using them to good effect in ways the SAA haven't been able to answer.

The rebels alone cannot win against the SAA for the record If Erod wants to annex those parts of Syria he wants the Turkish army will need to directly deploy. The problem is for the SAA while they will defeat the rebels, they will be bloodied and degraded in strength greatly after it's all said and done and be no match for the Turkish army.

Russia provided syria with lots of BM-21 Grad which support missiles with 45km range.. more than enough to hit any part of turkey army positions ,and even reach their border.. depending where they are used.. with the new advances in aleppo.. they can strike almost anywhere in idlib with that.. so they will be fine.. with the direct
guidance of Russia airforce to correct their aim..

Syria also have lots of OTR-21 Tochka missiles.. that have more than 100km range.. again with russia technical
support and upgrades they can be very precise... syria have used them before against ISIS.  have seen those
reports..

Syria also have scuds and other soviet missiles upgraded by russia.. with 300km range or so .

Finally IRAN supply syria with weapons too ,they have missiles that easily reach all parts of idlib..
something that erdo army will have is accuracy problem with their gps jammed..

So Syrian have plenty of weapons .more than you think.. don't you think Russia had to prepare syria
for a direct confrontation with turkey very well ? when they turkey shot down their plane ?

Syria have onyx missiles ,that even though are anti ship , they have a 300km range.. this was reported by
Russia..  



also syria have recently modernized dozens of migs-29..with all the weapons they can carry.. they have not been almost never used in the entire war... they stored in reserve just for a real special time ,that their country is in a full scale war with Turkey or Israel.  according to wikipedia syria should have up to x40 of them. last time
they were used according to wikipedia

Syrian MiG-29s entered the Syrian Civil War in late October 2013, attacking Free Syrian Army insurgents with unguided rockets and bombs in Damascus.[126]

with a mig -29 and upgraded avionics ,the syrian airforce can hit those turk artillery positions from save
distance.. once you blow up 3 to 5 of them.. they will lose the interest to continue with the strategy ,since
erdogan artillery have no precision at all. and missiles of mig-29 can do direct hits  all the way to ankara or telaviv and hit with precision there. if they are under a major full war from any nation and being invaded
they have nothing to lose... and will strike back..

last but not least..

all those turkey outpost that there are plenty with hundreds of soldiers inside are easy target for syrian army..
if they feel turkey declared a full scale war and is advancing on their positions ,those turkey outpost will be destroyed.. in any case you can't win a war from long range strikes alone, either airforce or artillery ,
you need an actual army to invade the zones you want to occupy.. Once erdogan army or his terrorist enter a zone withing range of syrian artillery or russian airforce they will be completely destroyed.  .  

So if turkey army fire from turkey territory to the syrian army.. they will spread and take cover or even retreat a little bit.. but once turkey army move 10km inside syria with its artillery.. it will be inside the range of the backbone of syria artillery that is BM-21 Grad , that syria can produce them in their own country with russia help.
and with 45km range and russia guidance for aim.. they can stop any artillery positions. but also OTR-21 Tochka
with 100km or migs-29 can do the extra ,if needs to target inside turkey in case of a full scale declared war by turkey. like i said.. if syria have no other option ,and is at war already and erdogan is attempting to push back syrian army from aleppo ,they will not hesitate to hit turk army anywhere , in any place... erdogan have create
lots of target ,military bases they have for syrian army to hit..

Is important to remember ,that russia airforce don't limit the places their airforce fly and bomb.. just a day or two ago.. they hit a base of turkey backed terrorist right there near the turkey border.. and also hit inside idlib main city.. so any artillery strikes positions firing on russian troops or syrian army will face the russian airforce.

The options of erdogan are way more limited ,than the ones of Russia. if he goes full retard and start bombing
russian base ,the gloves will be off.. so turkey options are either lose to syrian army , or either lose to russia.

It is a matter of calculation for SAA. There are two option :

( 1) Advance against Turk artillery, without retaliation. Hoping they do not suffer too many casualties. If they move fast. In this case, they can work out how many casualty suffered for area liberated.

( 2) Retaliate against Turk artillery and advance. Counting the cost and area liberated.


There must already be examples to compare. Syria needs to liberate IDLIB, and still needs to have enough forces left to liberate East. And needs reserves. So as a rough guesstimate, SAA should not loose more than half of active force in IDLIB. Saving the other half and reserves for Yanks and Golan. How many man does SAA have now?

Um the MIG's would get shot down and Syria has like....18 Mig-29

Syria doesn't have lots of Scarab's.

Turkey has far more missiles if you want to play that game, Nothing the Syrians have will help them defeat the turks.

I know everything in their stock, I was also just talking about Gun based Arty. No Russia hasn't prepared Syria for war with Turkey where are you getting these silly ideas?. Russia has refused to provide the equipment Syria would need for such a war at every turn.

The Syrian army isn't anywhere as powerful as you proclaim.

nomadski wrote:
It is a matter of calculation for SAA.  There are two option :

( 1)  Advance against Turk artillery, without retaliation. Hoping they do not suffer too many casualties. If they move fast. In this case, they can work out how many casualty suffered for area liberated.

( 2) Retaliate against Turk artillery and advance. Counting the cost and area liberated.


There must already be examples to compare. Syria needs to liberate IDLIB, and still needs to have enough forces left to liberate East. And needs reserves. So as a rough guesstimate, SAA should not loose more than half of active force in IDLIB. Saving the other half and reserves for Yanks and Golan. How many man does SAA have now?

We have the entire army, this means everything at 120k-ish.

Reserve personal unknown but it wouldn't be too much.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Um the MIG's would get shot down and Syria has like....18 Mig-29

Syria doesn't have lots of Scarab's.

Turkey has far more missiles if you want to play that game, Nothing the Syrians have will help them defeat the turks.

I know everything in their stock, I was also just talking about Gun based Arty. No Russia hasn't prepared Syria for war with Turkey where are you getting these silly ideas?. Russia has refused to provide the equipment Syria would need for such a war at every turn.

The Syrian army isn't anywhere as powerful as you proclaim.

you have the iranian army too there.. and hezbolah and thousands of super long range kornets.
turkey army will not be able to hold any place if SAA ,Russia ,IRAN don't want it.. so say whatever you want//
you were the one saying syria lost the war..months ago.. and i told you ,no they not..  syrian army have been
consistently advancing non stop in the entire 2019..

so if Erdogan really wanted to go a full scale war against SAA , why he only send 5,000 soldiers and 70 tanks
to confront SAA ????  that is not an army to defeat SAA , simply ERdogan is just bluff ,he is testing Syria army
to see until where he can push.. and now he knows ,this reinforcements will not be enough to contain
a full army.. with russian airforce support.  like i said before ,you can't win wars with artillery strikes alone..
you need an army to stop syria advances ,which so far don't show up to fight. There are reports of turkey soldiers retreating when their backed terrorist retreat..  so they know very well ,they are under major disadvantage.. erdogan will need a lot more , like a full scale army invasion with airforce support with at least 50,000 soldiers to push back syrian army ,but syrian army will fight back.. and with russia airforce full support ,
the SAA will know where to strike and all the movements of turkey army.. my best guess is turkey if push hard..best he will get is a cease of fire but SAA will not retreat ever from fighting invading forces...

if  erdogan send a full scale army.. either he face..
1) a vietnam war.. that they will be grinded with endless kornets attacks and artillery strikes..
2) of a war with russia .

in both cases he will lose.. there is no way erdogan can't hold a position in idlib if he don't defeat the SAA
and capture damascus.. and more important..if he don't declare war on russia. trying to hold territory withuot controlling airspace is dumb as hell.. if he shoot down a russian planes again.. it will be russian airforce and cruise missiles the one destroying turkey army... he will retreat you will see... maybe in years.. if he keeps a low war profile.. then SAA will keep advancing but a slower pace.. but advancing anyway.. or in weeks if he is full retard..and declare war on russia too.

Syrian Army is considering making a full-scale attack on the main border post-Turks use to move and supply troops.

This would be very brazen, turks will react with full force if they try that.

But if by some miracle they could pull it off, that would eliminate Erod's ability to hold Idlib and that single decisive win if they could hold the ground, would bring them te Idlib victory.

franco wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Syrian Army is considering making a full-scale attack on the main border post-Turks use to move and supply troops.

This would be very brazen, turks will react with full force if they try that.

But if by some miracle they could pull it off, that would eliminate Erod's ability to hold Idlib and that single decisive win if they could hold the ground, would bring them te Idlib victory.

Hard to say how that plays out, Russia apparently doing a lot of bombing around Darat Izza, which would definitely be a choke point for logistics and the SAA is within 10 kms.  

It would be very very hard to pull off, but it is possible. I see at least five valid moves they could make to capture it.

Seig, me boy, I think I've told you before, never underestimate your enemy.

auslander wrote:Seig, me boy, I think I've told you before, never underestimate your enemy.

I've said only a fool does that, to capture the crossing would be a monumental task.

It would be very very hard to do this, Could they do it? in theory yes. Like I said I see a few ways they can do it.

Are chances super slim such a maneuver would work? hell yes.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

auslander wrote:Seig, me boy, I think I've told you before, never underestimate your enemy.

I've said only a fool does that, to capture the crossing would be a monumental task.

It would be very very hard to do this, Could they do it? in theory yes. Like I said I see a few ways they can do it.

Are chances super slim such a maneuver would work? hell yes.

At this stage would they take the risk when the M4 beckons like a siren?

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

auslander wrote:Seig, me boy, I think I've told you before, never underestimate your enemy.

I've said only a fool does that, to capture the crossing would be a monumental task.

It would be very very hard to do this, Could they do it? in theory yes. Like I said I see a few ways they can do it.

Are chances super slim such a maneuver would work? hell yes.

At this stage would they take the risk when the M4 beckons like a siren?

Taking the M4 would imo be the better route, as Franco said the terrain, however, will make the fighting hell for the SAA and that area is a nut they have spent years trying to get past.

Taking the crossing, however, would make the overall battle easier since the rebels would be greatly cut off from supplies but taking the crossing would be very very risky as the turks will have to act because if they lose that crossing they have lost Idlib.

I am not saying for a fact they plan to attack the crossing just that the general staff was considering the option.

We need to know what the Turks actually do, confronted by losses. Not what they might do. Planning can not be done this way. In order to find out, their capability and intentions, then a limited engagement should be done. One that, they can still walk away from. Before a larger scale, critical engagement. As Vann7 said, they only brought a limited force. They can be tested in a place, not important to them. To see if they have the stomach for a fight. Or they keep quiet. If they will fight, then go around them. Capture something else. Gain ground. Encircle them. Until they give up. If they keep quiet, then go for critical ground.

https://youtu.be/_z5UKystdZg

nomadski wrote:We need to know what the Turks actually do, confronted by losses. Not what they might do. Planning can not be done this way. In order to find out, their capability and intentions, then a limited engagement should be done. One that, they can still walk away from. Before a larger scale, critical engagement. As Vann7 said, they only brought a limited force. They can be tested in a place, not important to them. To see if they have the stomach for a fight. Or they keep quiet. If they will fight, then go around them. Capture something else. Gain ground. Encircle them. Until they give up. If they keep quiet, then go for critical ground.

https://youtu.be/_z5UKystdZg

You are missing the point. This is very much a blitzkrieg fight at this stage and the SAA have shown some competency at it so far. Attack with overwhelming force before they can react.

Definitely not a case of trying something out, see what happens, think about it and then do something. That just tips the enemy off.