Russian Economy General News: #8

miketheterrible wrote:Well, since they aligned the two reserves as 1, and mixed in with additional revenues from oil and gas sales increase (volume) mixed with increase in prices, Russia will have a nice reserve. Although they may use it for their major plan of infrastructure investment after elections (Putin's campaign promise).

Things are looking interesting.

Source for the bolded part? Sounds indeed interesting. And it's true that they need to start spending those reserves, especially because at this rate they're going to considerably grow.

It was during the talk about I think his meeting with the workers were he emntioned he will run as president again.

It was on the Kremlin.ru site. Not 100% sure but there were ideas. It was also mentioned on how much had to be spent on infrastructure as well. Another hint in itself.

The "black list" of the US can include 50 businessmen close to the Kremlin and officials
VedomostiJanuary 12th, 02:41 am


Figures of the "Kremlin report", which the White House is currently working on, may be more than 50 high-ranking officials and businessmen close to the Russian president. This is reported by Kommersant, citing sources in US government agencies involved in the implementation of the policy towards Russia, but not directly working on the document. Under the terms of the law "On Countering America's Enemies through Sanctions" (CAATSA), the list should include not only officials and businessmen, but also members of their families. Thus, the list can expand to 300 people.

The deadlines for submitting the list are also stipulated in the law signed by the US President - no later than January 29. US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said at a briefing in the White House that work on the document is underway and it will be submitted in the near future.

The Ministry of Finance, the State Department and other agencies, including special services, were involved in drafting the "Kremlin report". The former coordinator of the Sanction Policy of the State Department, Daniel Fried, stated this earlier. According to him, the "black list" will not necessarily be public, it can be completely closed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with Russian media leaders, called the topic of intervention in the US elections-2016 "complete nonsense and delirium", and assured that "no collusion, no interference on our part."

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The US Ministry of Finance told about work on the sanctions list of "Russian oligarchs"
VedomostiJanuary 12 01:56


US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed that the White House is continuing work on a new sanctions list against Russia. Answering the journalist's question about sanctions against "Russian oligarchs", he said: "We are working on this, as we have already said. The list will appear in the near future. This is what we pay attention to. " The briefing is available on the YouTube channel of the White House.

New restrictive measures against Russia can be introduced in the framework of the Law on Counteracting America's Enemies through Sanctions (CAATSA). The list of businessmen close to the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin, as well as those working for the defense industry, should be submitted to the Congress by the beginning of February. Inclusion of the name of a businessman on the list formally does not mean that sanctions will be automatically imposed against him, but the risk of his getting into the list of citizens of special categories (Specially Designated Nationals List, SDN) increases. In practice, SDN figurants lose access to the services not only of American, but also of European banks.

Representatives of the Russian defense industry are concerned that secondary sanctions will be imposed against the banks cooperating with it, a source in the industry told Vedomosti. The solution of this problem can be at the center of attention of the staff for ensuring sustainable development of the industry, formed in the collegium of the military industrial commission. On January 9, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin announced its creation.

To reduce risks, the government is considering the allocation of a specialized bank for servicing the defense industry complex (OPK). According to Kommersant, the main candidate for this role is the Russian financial corporation, which is 100% owned by Rosoboronexport (part of Rostekh). RBC previously reported that for insurance of private banks, the idea of ​​financing state defense order through the cash settlement center under the treasury is being discussed.

SPECIAL REPORT: What Has QE Wrought?

The Real Story About Russia's Gold Holdings

Austin wrote:The Real Story About Russia's Gold Holdings

heh link doesn't open

As for Russia we'll live to see. I am personally worried about  businessmen who are changing citizenship like this will save them from US sanctions.


I just wonder if Putin's election's changes  in govt, economy  and new wave of sanctions will have more positives or more negatives?

Has the government released the official GDP figures in rubles yet?

franco wrote:Has the government released the official GDP figures in rubles yet?  

Not that I heard of. But IMHO thsi will be after a financial year is closed. In Q1 I presume.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Austin wrote:The Real Story About Russia's Gold Holdings

heh link doesn't open

As for Russia we'll live to see. I am personally worried about  businessmen who are changing citizenship like this will save them from US sanctions.


I just wonder if Putin's election's changes  in govt, economy  and new wave of sanctions will have more positives or more negatives?

In past, if business men did that, their assets get stripped. So the business men know that they can go west, but will lose their wealth. If they stay, they can repurpose their money in domestic affairs and even invest in third countries like in Asia and make more money.

Alexander Mercouris on Russia's inflation:

http://russiafeed.com/russias-inflation-rate-continues-plunge/

- "Surprisingly" The Russian Central Bank’s expectations of a major pick up in inflation in December and over the course of the New Year-Christmas January holiday have been confounded, with the annual rate of inflation continuing to fall

- The result is that Russia dramatically overshot its 2017 inflation target, with the Central Bank aiming for annualised inflation of 4% in 2017 whereas inflation the actual inflation rate in Russia in 2017 was just 2.5%

- Reflecting the smaller than usual rise in inflation in Russia over the January holiday, the annualised inflation rate in Russia has now fallen still further and now stands at 2.3%. Core inflation, that is inflation with seasonal factors deleted from the measurements, is just 2.1%

- Suffice to say that the annual inflation in Russia is now lower than in Britain (2.8%) and roughly the same as in the US (2.13%). Only in the eurozone is it significantly lower at 1.4%

- These high real interest rates in Russia underscore the underlying toughness of the Russian economy. If they were replicated in any Western economy they would undoubtedly cause a recession

- November saw a sharp shock fall in industrial production. Though the Economics Ministry has expressed confidence that industrial production dynamics will be better in December, and though the overall economy continues to grow, November’s shock decline should serve as a warning that a genuine relaxation in monetary conditions is overdue

Also unexpected slowdown in GDP growth during the second half of the year and a disappointing overall growth rate of below 2% for the whole year.

Kimppis wrote:Alexander Mercouris on Russia's inflation:

http://russiafeed.com/russias-inflation-rate-continues-plunge/

- "Surprisingly" The Russian Central Bank’s expectations of a major pick up in inflation in December and over the course of the New Year-Christmas January holiday have been confounded, with the annual rate of inflation continuing to fall

- The result is that Russia dramatically overshot its 2017 inflation target, with the Central Bank aiming for annualised inflation of 4% in 2017 whereas inflation the actual inflation rate in Russia in 2017 was just 2.5%

- Reflecting the smaller than usual rise in inflation in Russia over the January holiday, the annualised inflation rate in Russia has now fallen still further and now stands at 2.3%.  Core inflation, that is inflation with seasonal factors deleted from the measurements, is just 2.1%

- Suffice to say that the annual inflation in Russia is now lower than in Britain (2.8%) and roughly the same as in the US (2.13%). Only in the eurozone is it significantly lower at 1.4%

- These high real interest rates in Russia underscore the underlying toughness of the Russian economy.  If they were replicated in any Western economy they would undoubtedly cause a recession

- November saw a sharp shock fall in industrial production.  Though the Economics Ministry has expressed confidence that industrial production dynamics will be better in December, and though the overall economy continues to grow, November’s shock decline should serve as a warning that a genuine relaxation in monetary conditions is overdue

Also unexpected slowdown in GDP growth during the second half of the year and a disappointing overall growth rate of below 2% for the whole year.

Even though the Russian economy is somehow not imploding in the wake of Nabiullina's criminal rate policy, the problem remains.
There is nothing surprising about anemic economic performance when the prime rate of the CBR (i.e. the lowest rate anywhere
in the Russian economy) is 8.25%/2.5% = 3.3 times larger than than the inflation rate. This is not about easy money, this
is about a functional banking system where realistic borrowing costs can be found that would sustain Russian business activity.
Sanctions have greatly reduced access to foreign loans with 4% interest rates so Russian companies are operating inefficiently
either by paying 10% or more for loans or having to do backroom deals with the government.

It should now be clear that Nabiullina and the CBR are dead wrong on the inflationary pressures in Russia. They are pushing
the system into an unstable state in the long run. Inflation cannot be engineered to zero. Natural inflation for Russia is
between 4 and 6%. Not 2.5%. The gap will eventually catch up and bite Russia in the a**. Putin needs to wake up and
smell the coffee.

If these Oligarch so called close to Putin is under US Tresurary Scanner and would likely be sanctioned by end of this month which possibly could mean freeze of their bank accounts , Why dont they just transfer their money to Russian Bank and save them form their losses , Russian Government has offered them ammenesty and no tax will be charged.

I am sure some of these Orligarchy may have nothing to do with Putin or his clan but since CIA suspect them they would end up lossing their money

twitter

The new presidential term of Putin can start with a budget maneuver , The President asked to find money for education, health care and infrastructure

https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2018/01/15/747720-srok-s-byudzhetnogo-manevra

In the end, it's all writing for nothing since most of the info grabbed from that article dates to last year. Also, it seems to ignore the fact that Putin demanded from both parties of groups to come up with an economic plan (Kudrin and Glazyev) but nothing was said in the end. The article seems to center around Kudrin which brings me to the idea that its liberal garbage. Whatever is stated in it too, is entirely based upon the article and its writers, and nothing to do with the government because it only quotes "experts" and then, once again, goes back to information from previous years.

With Russia's elections, for all we know, the liberals will all be thrown out. And this is based upon that Putin is running independent, and not part of the United Russia party.

I thought everyone would be “bullish” with the oil prices going because it would have a positive effect on the Russian economy but all I am reading is not positive, why is that?

Austin wrote:twitter

What is the source for this? What are their forecast for the Russian economic growth for the period? 1.5% per year at most? LMAO at that.

But it's in "real" GDP, in other words PPP? Russian economy is currently at $4 trillion in PPP, 2% growth means $80 billion. Those Western countries like Canada, UK and Australia... how fast are they going to grow? Around 2% at most?

So if their PPP economies are more or less smaller than Russia's, a similar or lower level of economic growth (compared to Russia) won't somehow magically mean that they increase the "global GDP" more than Russia, but in fact it means the exact opposite.

So Russia's share should easily be atleast 2% of the global growth, probably more.

EDIT: Also, shouldn't China's share be even higher; compared to the US? Or rather, US share should be lower... China's economy is already like 20% larger than the US + the growth rate is actually over 2 times faster... So how is China share only (actually slightly less than) two times bigger?

Putin Pals Panic Over US "Corrupt Oligarchs" List, Begin Liquidating Assets

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-15/putin-pals-panic-over-us-corrupt-oligarchs-list-begin-liquidating-assets

Austin wrote:Putin Pals Panic Over US "Corrupt Oligarchs" List, Begin Liquidating Assets

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-15/putin-pals-panic-over-us-corrupt-oligarchs-list-begin-liquidating-assets

Drivel. Every London-resident oligarch is not Putin's friend or acquaintance.

This article is more propaganda along the lines that Putin is a secret billionaire. Smear and innuendo without a shred of
evidence.

but its also telling about how now the Russian billionairs are liquidating their foreign assets because they are afraid of losing them. Which is a good thing too.

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:Putin Pals Panic Over US "Corrupt Oligarchs" List, Begin Liquidating Assets

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-15/putin-pals-panic-over-us-corrupt-oligarchs-list-begin-liquidating-assets

Drivel. Every London-resident oligarch is not Putin's friend or acquaintance.

This article is more propaganda along the lines that Putin is a secret billionaire. Smear and innuendo without a shred of
evidence.

Well any one even seen photographing with Putin may be in trouble too

In a way its good they need to liquadate those asset and bring it to russia there is already a tax ammenesty scheme. If they still loose money due to sanctions it is their own fault

New US sanctions will create difficulties for the Russian defense industry - Manturov

http://militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=471310

Once again an excellent article by Alexander Mercouris, about the potential new sanctions and their impact:

http://theduran.com/us-ambassador-russia-downplays-threat-sanctions/

Austin wrote:New US sanctions will create difficulties for the Russian defense industry - Manturov

http://militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=471310

It won't much other than give new opportunities. Example is that banks who said they won't invest in defense companies because of potential sanctions, weren't offered in first place. Instead, Russian banks already sanctioned may get dibs in investing in defense companies. Second, the government is looking to create a bank specifically for this, which means more money in government pockets. Thirdly, it will mean more self sustainability. If they can't get foreign parts, they will continue to build up own scientific base and produce parts locally. And many other goods can be obtained from sanctioned companies in China (China has companies sanctioned due to pirated hardware and alike).

Kimppis wrote:Once again an excellent article by Alexander Mercouris, about the potential new sanctions and their impact:

http://theduran.com/us-ambassador-russia-downplays-threat-sanctions/

Point 2 reminds me of the argument of "Good Will of the Thief not to Rob you"

There is no need for Russia to buy US T bills in the first place it can just convert most of US T bills into Euro T Bills and then convert part of it into Gold or simply pay off the Debt.

Investing in T Bills and then arguing US wont freeze it because of Global Implication etc is like Depending on Good Will of Rapist not to Rape You , Why should Russia even wait for let the US think about such a thing let alone do it.

IF US does Freeze Russian Forex then you have to blame the Stupidity of Russian CBR and Putin that it had purchased it in first place