Russian Economy General News: #8

kvs wrote:

Kimppis wrote:http://tass.com/economy/982340

So Russia's GDP is only up 1.4% from January to November? Well, I guess it makes sense if the economy really grew only by 1% in November. But that is quite a disappointment, so much for that 2%, which I thought was if anything conservative... ffs the economy was up by 2.5% in Q2, 3.1% in May.

So how the fuck was the growth much higher during H1!? It means IMF, and RCB were more accurate than the Ministry of Economic Development?

I know it's largely symbolic, I mean it's the first year of growth since 2014, but it seems to interest rates really are hurting... Or maybe I'm not reading that right. (Yeah, just read it again and I don't think so. There's no way around it, from January to November the growth was only 1.4%.) The slowdown is actually huge, damn...

It is a miracle that Russia has positive GDP growth at all given the insane CBR rate policy.   This is not
a joke, the prime rate is one of the key controls over economic activity.   In fact, it can be more important than
changes in government spending since most of the private sector does not directly depend on the government and
its spending.  

It is clear that many people on this board do not have a clue about the importance of this issue.   You all should
make an effort and note that all the major projects (e.g. Nord Stream II, high speed rail) all require massive
bank loans up-front.   No commercial entity uses savings for investment.   This is why NATO tries to sanction Russia
via access to banks.   Nabiullina is a rank A criminal who knows that Russian companies are desperate for affordable
loan rates (under 4%).    Perhaps Gazprom can arrange for global financing at reasonable rates, but not every
Russian company is a high roller that can get such deals.    And when it comes to small and medium sized business,
they are totally f*cked.

Austin wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
Lets wait for first half of new year what will happen.  no economic depression worldwide we'll see drop of % rate to 6,5-7  . Perhaps more.  I hope more programs supporting real economy.

Jim Rickards states the coming crisis will happen in 2018 as per his calculations , Read the whole interview its informative

https://www.businessinsider.in/we-talked-to-an-economist-who-predicted-the-great-recession-about-the-next-financial-crisis/articleshow/61883539.cms

miketheterrible wrote:http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4839727?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share

MOSCOW, December 22. / TASS /. The main strategies for securing cybersecurity in the international sphere involve a choice between strategies, one of which involves focusing on cooperation with external partners and strengthening the legal framework for global regulation of this sphere, while the other is to strengthen internal regulation and focus on own resources and solutions. This is stated in the report "The Future of Information Security: Global Transformations and Scenarios for Russia" of the Center for Strategic Research.

Two other strategies assume the strengthening of the role of the state in the Internet space. In one case, it is about monitoring the key "nodes" of the Internet, data transmission channels from abroad, electronic communication with key infrastructure objects, redistribution of physical data storage centers and their transfer to Russia, in order to reduce the likelihood of attack on them and limit the possible consequences in case it does happen. The second strategy also implies a high level of regulation, development of its own software solutions to ensure electronic communication and response to possible threats, orientation in cooperation to develop security measures for the closest partners, primarily the Eurasian Economic Union.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:1,7-2% is not bad but not good either.

Kimppis wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:1,7-2% is not bad but not good either.

That is really it in a nutshell.

It seems that the Russian GDP (PPP) hit 4 trillion for the first time, going to overtake Germany very soon:

https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/despite-sanctions-russias-gdp-shoots-over-4-trillion/

China's economy is already 1/5th larger than the US, Indonesia is already larger than any European economy except Germany and Russia. Turkey is at 2 trillion.

MOSCOW, December 27. / TASS /. The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RFPI) estimates the inflow of foreign investment in the Russian non-financial sector to over $ 30 billion in 2017. Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the fund, told journalists about it.

"According to the RFPI forecast, the total inflow of foreign investments into the non-financial sector will exceed $ 30 billion by the end of 2017," he said.

Earlier, the Central Bank reported that for the first three quarters of 2017 the total inflow of foreign direct investment into the non-financial sector of Russia was $ 23 billion, which is a record result for four years.

Austin wrote:US Sanctions Against Russia: The Forecast for 2018

http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-sanctions-against-russia-the-forecast-for-2018/


Seems the sanction has multi-year approach and targets every things russian under the sun , Time to retliate by targetting boeing and other US imports plus geeting out of START Treat

Austin wrote:US Sanctions Against Russia: The Forecast for 2018

http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-sanctions-against-russia-the-forecast-for-2018/


Seems the sanction has multi-year approach and targets every things russian under the sun , Time to retliate by targetting boeing and other US imports plus geeting out of START Treat

Austin wrote:Russian reaction and putins has been very impotent against US sanction , all they did is rewarded US by buying more T bills putting them at greater risk to economy

This time putins reaction won't be any different, hope he manages to grow balls in the vacationn and respond effectively keeping Russian interest and not oligarch

Austin wrote: RFPI: the inflow of foreign investment in the non-financial sector of Russia in 2017 will exceed $ 30 billion

Earlier, the Central Bank reported that for the first three quarters of 2017 the total inflow of foreign direct investment into the non-financial sector of Russia was $ 23 billion, which is a record result for four years.

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4846711

miketheterrible wrote:
As for GDP in general, you can't take everything said seriously. And it's rather hard to compare when things are not equal everywhere in terms of law. For instance, in the west, particularly now, they count drugs like illicite and recently legalized as a huge part of it's consumption spending. While in Russia that is all illegal.  As well, debt in Russia is very low and constantly dropping (as KVS said once, paying it off is classified as losing money because the money is leaving, not coming in, when technically they are paying it off), while in many countries they are increasing debt significantly and it's growing or have gone past the overall GDP levels.  Something that can come back and bite them in the butt if the current economic structure falls apart, something China and Russia are trying to do for good reasons.

So yeah, current method of calculating GDP is very much off. And something even the creator of the GDP structure (a us senator) once said that it isn't really a perfect or even good method to compare countries to each other.  But it's the only method at moment because most of the world's trade goes through the US. Once that changes, then the whole calculation structure we use now will probably be much different.

According to the book, the western countries in general and the US in particular are controlled by a clique of international bankers, which use currency manipulation (hence the title) to gain wealth by first loaning money in USD to developing nations and then shorting their currency. The Japanese Lost decade, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the Latin American financial crisis and others are attributed to this cause. It also claims that the Rothschild Family has the wealth of 5 trillion dollars whereas Bill Gates only has 40 billion dollars.[14]
Song also is of the opinion that the famous U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, is not a department of state functions, but several private banks operated by the private sector, and that these private banks are loyal to the ubiquitous Rothschild family.[15][16][17]
On June 4, 1963, President Kennedy signed an executive order, which, as an amendment to Executive Order 10289, delegated the authority to issue silver certificates (notes convertible to silver on demand) to the Secretary of the Treasury. Song says the direct consequence was that the Federal Reserve lost its monopoly to control money.
The book looks back at history and argues that fiat currency itself is a conspiracy; it sees in the abolition of representative currency and the installment of fiat currency a struggle between the "banking clique" and the governments of the western nations, ending in the victory of the former. It advises the Chinese government to keep a vigilant eye on China's currency and instate a representative currency.

Cyberspec wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:what illumianti what illuminati? you mean charity donors and Open Russia sponsors ?

Oh come on now, you know who they are

Austin wrote:Putin Tries to Lure $1 Trillion Home as Sanctions Fear Grows

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-26/putin-tries-to-lure-1-trillion-home-as-sanctions-fear-deepens

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

In this case more sanctions work as good leverage for Putin's plans

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Putin isn't emotional about decisions.  He also seems to have decisions taking into account long term implications.

Austin wrote:Thus US t bills are apparently not bad investments in comparison with other options.

Austin wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Putin isn't emotional about decisions.  He also seems to have decisions taking into account long term implications.

All he is doing by not reacting is protecting the Oligarch which gives US more incentive for US to put more sanction as is the case now.

There are easily many things he can do to put pressure on US Business

>> Ban using Western Hardware/Software in State Enterprise opt for all Russian or Open Source SW/Hardware , In much the same way they banned Kaspersky in US Government
>> Reduce exposure to US T bills to not more than 10 % of total forex or 5 %
>> Increase Tarrif barrier in purchase of US ccivilian Aircraft

Austin wrote:

Austin wrote:Thus US t bills are apparently not bad investments in comparison with other options.

Many options exisits including this

China Opens Its Bond Market To International Investors

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
1) This is actually happening now

>> No it is not , Show me any official statement where Russia has banned hardware/SW from West/US and allowed only use of domestic hardware SW

2)  Are there better options for liquidity yet? 

>> Euro T Bills [ Russia got far better leverage against Europe than US ] , Gold , Yuan , SDR

Keeping US T Bills not exceeding 10 % of Russian Forex is safer bet.

>>>3) And which jets then buy? Waiting 15 years untill placed by Russian ones not to mention that ~ half of titanium used in Boeing is made in Russia. 

Buy Russian ones Tu-204SM , IL-96M , MS-21 , Superjet

Impose Tarrif barriers on Western Aircraft , Use Titanium sold to Boeing on Russian Aircraft.

The government intentionally makes few Russian aircraft just to make sure the numbers keep the people employed and paves the way for imports.