Russian Economy General News: #8

kvs wrote:

Really, Russia was basically under US occupation during the 1990s under Yeltsin and any talk about outright suspicious
behaviour is "tin foil".   I don't recall Yeltsin's compardor regime ever being denounced by Putin.   Clearly he has been
engaged in a precarious juggling act to stay in power.    So it is not at all a stretch for Nabiullina to be servicing interests
who could care less about Russia.  

Project Canada wrote:Is there a Russian government website where we can email these recommendations? Or maybe a Russian political party/ person who would at least listen? Or even the Russian President's website? 

If Russian 5th columnists are able to commit these tresonous crimes right in front of peoples faces, and the Russian leadership  is Not doing anything to stop them, then is it likely that Russia is headed for another 90s disaster? Russia wouldn't  survive  another breakup.

kvs wrote:To all you ad hominem wankers: put up or shut up.   Demonstrate a link to "right wing conspiracies" in this thread,
I dare you.   None of you yaps have posted a single shred of an argument.   Screeching "you are wrong" makes you
look like idiots.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:


Ys they banned outflow in Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Money is valid as long as people trust it has a value. Otherwise it is worthless. Full stopping of international exchange for citizens is best signal to for attack. And attackers are not citizens. It is Russian banks and hedge funds form US mainly.

2 )
Not really. Russia's external debt in $ is more than reserves, T-bonds inclusive. If US refuses Russia might refuse to pay back to West. thsi si kind of MAD in economy.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/external-debt

I guess this would be the last step before "kinetic war"

BRICS' bonds are just launched and not really tested. Managing the whole economy ofc Russia I would not do it. Some investments but no tall.
Euro? like EU countries would not arrest Russian assets? Are you sure? IMF is managed mostly bu US then its allies. What is the difference?

Chinese T-bonds? Partially it is Russian bonds denoLike 1 week ago Russia issued trial 1 USD bln equivalent in yuan.
Buying Chinese bonds there are pros and cons but I believe Russia should step up its involvement in this direction.

3 )


Really, inflow of empty money would help whom? does Russia produce anything for consumer market? not really then what? people start buying imported goods and US soars then more people are selling rubles and... crisis like Zimbabwe.

There is much more then only interest rate. Shitty and leaking banking system. Underdeveloped financial instruments and legal solutions. Yes decrease slowly but surely. Business is very conservative in risk management. Unstable legal system and shitty regulations are impacting industry no less if not more.

I guess all trade will go in yuan sooner of later. Even if China will be bigger market than EU for Russian gas then you want from total dependency on west to jump into total dependency from China? fairly risky I can say.

Austin wrote:CBR pace of Interest rate cut is too slow for Russia Business to get benefitted.

They should cut 4 times interest rate in a year at the rate of 0.5 % that would be 2 % per year

Russian Bond Yields Plunge to 4-Year Lows as Investors Shrug off Sanctions

Financial warfare against it or not, everyone understands now that between the low deficits and the hundreds of billions in reserve Russia's finances are in good order, and Russia is good for its debt



http://russia-insider.com/en/russian-bond-yields-plunge-4-year-lows-investors-shrug-sanctions/ri21881

Austin wrote:Stopping capital account convertibility is a detterent against speculative attack on Rouble specially if the idea is to create panic among the citizen.

Beyond that Russia should aim to build Gold reserves of at minimum 5000 T  currently its at ~ 1700 T  , Germany has 4000 T and US 8000 T , China does not full disclose its Gold reserves.

I would say keep Forex in following percentage to build a deterrent against economic war

Gold - 35 %
Euro Bills - 20 %
IMF SDR/Misc - 20 %
Chinese/BRICS bond -15 %
US T Bills - 10 %


As far as sanctions goes Russia has absorbed a major part of the blow and did well now the aim is for Growth atleast 4-5 % of GDP

MOSCOW, Dec 1 - RIA Novosti. The policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States has ceased to affect the Russian credit market, said Alexander Morozov, director of the department for research and forecasting of the Central Bank of Russia.

"To what extent does the normalization of the policy of the ECB and the Fed affect Russia and the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia?" In this respect, we observe a certain divergence of politicians - in the US and the eurozone, the policy is normalized by rising rates, and in Russia - by lowering rates. That is, the percentage differential between the rates in Russia and the rates in the US and the euro area is declining, "Morozov said, speaking at a financial forum organized by the Vedomosti newspaper.
The possibility of maintaining this divergence in itself is a very positive factor for Russia, which will stabilize the Russian financial market, Morozov said. "We have already accumulated a percentage differential in the period of shock so significant that it really allows to minimize or at least reduce the effect of global financial markets on the Russian financial market," the head of the department noted.
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev during a meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in

Assuming that in the medium term, the Fed's rate will rise to a level that is considered normal (conditionally - 2.75% -3%), then proceeding from the real rate of 2.5%, it is possible to safely reach the level of 6.5% at the key rate of the Bank of Russia, Morozov said. Currently, the Central Bank's key rate is 8.25%. "The movement from 8.25% to 6.5% should not cause serious perturbations in the financial markets, and when they occur, it should quickly encourage investors to return to the Russian market," he said.
"The impact of Fed rates on the Russian credit market has disappeared, it can not be identified.The change in the policy of the Fed to Russia has ceased to influence.This can be expected that such a loss of interrelation - the change in the rates of the Fed and the policy of the Bank of Russia - will last as long as the process of normalizing the policy of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Russia is not over, "Morozov said.
"In the perspective of several years, in theory, we can expect the absence of significant links between the policy of the Federal Reserve and the actions of the Bank of Russia," he concluded.

Cyberspec wrote:
It;s official...the Rothchilds are Russian double agents  

[

Austin wrote:Russia says goodbye to the dollar: after investors in the ruble invests and business...


Источник: https://politexpert.net/81145-rossiya-proshaetsya-s-dollarom-vsled-za-vkladchikami-v-rubl-investiruet-i-biznes?utm_source=finobzor.ru

"We are considering such an opportunity, but seriously, it is unlikely," Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev told reporters in Moscow, responding to a question about the possibility of placing these bonds before the end of 2017. According to him, the release must be carefully prepared, since it will not be the only one.

"It will not be a one-time operation, if it is, it will definitely not be a one-time operation." (...) We are not sure that this will happen every year, but what we are certain of is a liquid benchmark, and this will be curve, and not the only issue, "- said the deputy minister.

"We are ready more or less, but we just need to better prepare for the deal to go better, because it's a unique deal, it never happened." We need to prepare everything well for the infrastructure to work well so that Chinese investors will have all the questions they had before that (before they could not buy such tools, but now they can) received answers in advance, and not in the process of placement, "Kolychev said.

"We constantly communicate with them, they have a good response, they like the credit history, how can the credit history of the country that balances the budget with oil at $ 40 per barrel not like?" He stressed.

Moscow. December 11th. INTERFAX.RU - Net capital outflow from the Russian Federation for 11 months of 2017 increased 3.4 times, to $ 28 billion compared to the same period in 2016 when it amounted to $ 8.2 billion, according to Bank of Russia.

"The key role in the current value of the indicator was played by banks, continuing the policy of reducing external debt." The net outflow of capital from other sectors that actively attracted foreign investment and simultaneously increased foreign assets was relatively less significant, "the regulator said.

The net outflow of capital from the Russian Federation in January-October was estimated at $ 23.8 billion. Thus, in November, capital export could reach $ 4.2 billion.

Net capital outflows of the private sector in 2017 based on the baseline scenario of the CBR (with an oil price of $ 50 per barrel), updated in September, are projected at $ 17 billion.

The volume of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) will be 3.7 trillion rubles. as of January 1, 2018, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said during the meeting of the government.

"As of January 1, 2018, the amount of the National Welfare Fund will be 3.7 trillion rubles. or slightly more than 4% of GDP. At the same time, the liquid part, that is, free balances not invested in assets, will amount to 2.3 trillion rubles. Therefore, both the budget rules and the budget that we made for the next three-year plan, he takes into account the opportunities and increases, the replenishment of our reserves, which we need, because we are still dependent on the raw material component and oil and gas revenues, "Siluanov said.

According to him, by the end of 2017, the Reserve Fund will be completely depleted.

As of December 1, the volume of the Reserve Fund was 994.64 billion rubles, the volume of the National Welfare Fund was 3.9 trillion rubles, the ministry reported earlier.

The surplus of the foreign trade balance of Russia in January-October 2017 increased by $ 22.3 billion, or by 27.7%, compared to the same period in 2016 - up to $ 102.9 billion, follows from the report of the FCS of Russia.

"The trade balance was positive at $ 102.9 billion, which is $ 22.3 billion more than in January-October 2016," the report said.

Russia's exports for the period increased by 25.5% year-on-year to $ 287 billion. Imports for 10 months increased by 24.3% compared to the same period in 2016 - to $ 184.1 billion.

"In January-October 2017, Russia's foreign trade turnover1 amounted to $ 471.1 billion and increased by 25.0% compared to January-October 2016," the FCS points out.

Austin wrote:Presidential Advisor Glazyev allowed the use of crypto-currency to circumvent sanctions

https://rns.online/finance/Glazev-dopustil-ispolzovanie-kriptovalyut-dlya-obhoda-sanktsii-2017-12-12/

Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Sergey Glazyev called the crypto currency "an objective need" because of the sanctions regime and allowed the use of them to circumvent external restrictions. He said this during a meeting in the presidential administration on the issue of determining the legal status of crypto-currencies and their legislative regulation.

"There is an objective need for this instrument (crypto-currencies - RNS), connected, first, with the fact that banks are subject to sanctions, as is known, and do not want to conduct settlements. We are very suitable for sensitive activities for the state. We can, irrespective of sanctions, conduct settlements with our counterparties around the world, "Glazyev said.

Also, the presidential adviser said that he supports the idea of ​​creating a national crypto currency: "The most interesting issue is the issue of the national crypto ... Digital ruble or cryptor, suppose that will be emitted in the same way as an ordinary ruble, only through the use of blocking technology."

According to him, the creation of a national crypto currency would mean the creation of a new type of money, in addition to cash and non-cash.

"That is, it is the same ruble, only its movement is limited in a certain way, it is arranged in a certain way. And nothing more to do is not necessary, "- summed up Glazyev.

China, Japan and India increased their accumulated direct investments in Russia in 2017 by 25% to $ 32.4 billion. The main growth was due to projects in the fuel and energy sector. This is stated in the report of the Center for Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB EDB), which Izvestiya got acquainted with. In the future, Asian investors will be active in the manufacturing and mining sectors.

Austin wrote:ok will check GD ,what is Ethenrneum ?

Direct investment in Russia from Asia grew by a quarter

Large projects in the oil and gas sector increased investments from the East

China, Japan and India increased their accumulated direct investments in Russia in 2017 by 25% to $ 32.4 billion. The main growth was due to projects in the fuel and energy sector. This is stated in the report of the Center for Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB EDB), which Izvestiya got acquainted with. In the future, Asian investors will be active in the manufacturing and mining sectors.

"Nobody excludes any" black swans ", the emergence of additional sanctions is one of such" black swans. "We are trying to forecast, including our response to this situation, but today I would not waste time on it," - he said, answering the relevant question of investors in London, where the largest Russian bank on Thursday presented a development strategy until 2020.