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    Russian Economy General News: #6

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    Post  Project Canada on Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:22 pm

    People's resilience helps Russia dodge deeper crisis
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    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:42 pm

    http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160414/1037978376/putin-annual-direct-line.html?utm_source=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FAUbmuG4yKx&utm_medium=short_url&utm_content=bbRP&utm_campaign=URL_shortening

    Russian economy is now in the middle ground between good and bad. Overall the situation has improved and the trend is positive.

    A question about whether the economic decline has bottomed out.

    "We have a positive trend but it is not over. We expect GDP to continue to fall 0.3% this year, and next year we will see growth," said the president.

    The president explained that it's not about printing money, Gov't must restructure the economy. Industrial production increased in Feb. High tech exports are increasing compared to commodity exports.



    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160414/1037978376/putin-annual-direct-line.html#ixzz45nvSTtIR
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    Post  sepheronx on Thu Apr 14, 2016 6:22 pm

    Russia still 6th largest economy

    Good article.
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    Post  Austin on Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:43 pm

    Russia: a global energy powerhouse that’s much more than a petro-state

    http://theconversation.com/russia-a-global-energy-powerhouse-thats-much-more-than-a-petro-state-57766
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    Post  sepheronx on Sat Apr 16, 2016 7:17 pm

    What I am happy about is Russia is utilizing their oil and gas industry by investing heavily in processing the oil into plastics, petrol, construction equipment, and other goods (electronics as well) and for NATGAS putting in emphasis for LNG and others.

    What I am curious about though, is that since the future NATGAS will be the major contributor for electricity generating due to being cheap and very clean compared to coal (not as cheap as coal but much cleaner) and efficient, is if Russia is investing into any newer NATGAS energy generating plants?
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Apr 17, 2016 9:57 pm

    http://russia-insider.com/en/business/has-russias-import-substitution-policy-flopped/ri13931

    And

    http://russia-insider.com/en/russias-import-substitution-policy-too-early-tell/ri13932

    Both BNE news, which is George Soros funded.

    But if anyone has the total number of SMEs created in Russia last year, please provide the data.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Apr 17, 2016 10:11 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/business/has-russias-import-substitution-policy-flopped/ri13931

    And

    http://russia-insider.com/en/russias-import-substitution-policy-too-early-tell/ri13932

    Both BNE news, which is George Soros funded.

    But if anyone has the total number of SMEs created in Russia last year, please provide the data.  

    Since SME numbers are not being trotted out to back any of this propaganda it is safe to assume they have
    not collapsed. Then we have sdelanounas.ru which gives actual information and it indicates that there is
    activity on the import substitution front. So the balance of evidence is that Russia's economy is adapting.

    BTW, during such transitions GDP growth can stall or even decline since there are short term costs and
    production declines. I think that Russia's GDP is in much better shape than it was in 2008. The current
    transition is taking it to yet another, more secure and developed level.
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Apr 17, 2016 10:18 pm

    Figured as much. But curious about SME's created/thrived/survived per year in Russia. They have to have some sort of documentation of number of registered sme's per year.

    Edit: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IC.BUS.NREG

    So Russia had more registered non-liability businesses in 2012-2014 than France or Italy. Yet these economic news sites thrash at Russia. I wonder what 2015 numbers are?
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:01 am

    KVS, I found some info to my earlier question:


    http://www.biia.com/bankruptcies-and-registrations-in-russia-dynamics-2015

    It Doesnt mean that it = SME's but gives a good indication to the events happening.

    Russian Economy General News: #6 - Page 23 Wyg1Tbh
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    Post  kvs on Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:14 am

    sepheronx wrote:KVS, I found some info to my earlier question:


    http://www.biia.com/bankruptcies-and-registrations-in-russia-dynamics-2015

    It Doesnt mean that it = SME's but gives a good indication to the events happening.

    Russian Economy General News: #6 - Page 23 Wyg1Tbh

    Very nice graph, thanks. It shows that there is a net accumulation of SMEs and other companies. It is likely (almost by definition)
    that most newly registered companies are small and not corporate giants, so the trend is driven by SMEs. The relative fall in the
    bankruptcy fraction does not necessarily mean that that there are less in absolute terms compared to 2012 but it does mean that
    the newly registered companies are not folding as fast as they are registered, hence net accumulation.

    This graph is like smoking gun evidence that there has been a surge of SMEs created and they have more viability than before.
    Sanctions and ruble forex drop are the best stimulus. Russian SMEs (startups) have a chance to establish themselves since the
    import flood entry barrier has become noticeably smaller.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:31 am

    F*cking pathetic! Just like PACE, the WTO is yet another useless institution with negative strategic value for Russia (yet another gift from Medvedev), Ukraine is set to take Russia to the WTO over transit of Ukrainian goods, and Ukraine has US, EU, and Turkey's backing which means its basically guranteed WTO will rule in favor for Ukraine when they're guilty of blocking transit of Russian goods, talk about ridiculous sanctimonious hypocrisy:

    Media: at the meeting of the WTO claims of Ukraine to the Russian Federation supported by the US, EU and Turkey
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 18, 2016 2:18 pm

    There is prime opportunity here. While WTO was always a bad idea for Russia, this will turn out in Russia's favor, so long as Russia sticks to their guns.

    Essentially, what I am getting at is that if they take Russia to court over this, Russia can counter sue all the parties for illegal,non UN mandated, sanctions on Russia. Since US and Ukraine won't agree with that, it will end up putting a huge black mark on WTO and maybe even dissolve it (wishful thinking on my end).

    A lot of comments on that site is strange though. They keep talking of the palm oil cheese incident as if all cheese are like this, when it ended up as 10% of cheese was. I think some Russians are behind the times when it comes to evidence/truth. But they have no worries, if this happens, Russia may opt out of WTO and Russian businesses as well as dairy producers will be rolling in contracts. And Russia could then set any laws/rules regarding Enterprises in the country, which may favor Russia's business climate even if it is undercutting the WTO rules Very Happy
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:05 pm

    sepheronx wrote:There is prime opportunity here. While WTO was always a bad idea for Russia, this will turn out in Russia's favor, so long as Russia sticks to their guns.

    Essentially, what I am getting at is that if they take Russia to court over this, Russia can counter sue all the parties for illegal,non UN mandated, sanctions on Russia. Since US and Ukraine won't agree with that, it will end up putting a huge black mark on WTO and maybe even dissolve it (wishful thinking on my end).

    A lot of comments on that site is strange though. They keep talking of the palm oil cheese incident as if all cheese are like this, when it ended up as 10% of cheese was. I think some Russians are behind the times when it comes to evidence/truth. But they have no worries, if this happens, Russia may opt out of WTO and Russian businesses as well as dairy producers will be rolling in contracts. And Russia could then set any laws/rules regarding Enterprises in the country, which may favor Russia's business climate even if it is undercutting the WTO rules Very Happy

    I think you're too optimistic about the WTO, because the whole purpose of it's existence is to prevent non-Atlantic nations from being self-sufficient, especially if their thermonuclear powerhouses.

    If Russia pulls out of the WTO, it only makes sense to put 200-500% tariffs on western goods and use the tariff revenue to finance domestic industry. In 2013 the E.U. alone made $200 billion of profits in the Russian market...I hope they lose at least 95% of their market share to domestic industry and nations friendly to Russia.

    After that I hope Russia ends all cooperation on reigning in filesharing, let all the Russophobic media in the world eat the losses from Russia becoming a hub of filesharing lol!

    ...And lastly Russia should team up with Greece and Cyprus and jointly declare a debt moratorium on Western based financial services on public and private debt, and there's no need to pay back debt to countries declaring financial warfare on you...which indicates they don't want the debt to be payed back. Putin foolishly enabled $85 billion worth of debt payed back in 2015, which could of been used for funding space exploration or military rearmament. Russia, Greece, and Cyprus should set up a Debt Moratorium conference in Moscow, and challenge the validity of Duetsche and JP Morgan banks alleged $75 and 70 trillion of derivatives (respectively), and demand to prove the value in hard actual assets. How can any bank accumulate $70+ trillion of anything if their not running a ponzi scheme?

    ...Naturally NATO will try to bully Greece and Cyprus, so it only makes sense to hold referendums to join the Russian federation, to leave the EU and NATO, and declare debt moratoriums. With the vacuum of Western corporations leaving the Russian market, nearly $200 billion/year will be opened up for Greek and Cyprus to take advantage of, and Russian citizen can make up the difference in tourism that was lost in the E.U., Greek and Cyprus could enable capital and exchange controls (to prevent hyperinflation) and slowly peg their currencies to Russian rouble at 50-75% value to make them competitive. Militarily speaking Russia can help regain Northern Cyprus, the Turkish occupied Greek islands for the Greek diaspora, and Russia will gain unlimited warm-water ports and a unsinkable aircraft carrier (Cyprus) to defend Syria and Russian interests in the Middle East.
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    Post  A Different Voice on Mon Apr 18, 2016 11:49 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:There is prime opportunity here. While WTO was always a bad idea for Russia, this will turn out in Russia's favor, so long as Russia sticks to their guns.

    Essentially, what I am getting at is that if they take Russia to court over this, Russia can counter sue all the parties for illegal,non UN mandated, sanctions on Russia. Since US and Ukraine won't agree with that, it will end up putting a huge black mark on WTO and maybe even dissolve it (wishful thinking on my end).

    A lot of comments on that site is strange though. They keep talking of the palm oil cheese incident as if all cheese are like this, when it ended up as 10% of cheese was. I think some Russians are behind the times when it comes to evidence/truth. But they have no worries, if this happens, Russia may opt out of WTO and Russian businesses as well as dairy producers will be rolling in contracts. And Russia could then set any laws/rules regarding Enterprises in the country, which may favor Russia's business climate even if it is undercutting the WTO rules Very Happy

    I think you're too optimistic about the WTO, because the whole purpose of it's existence is to prevent non-Atlantic nations from being self-sufficient, especially if their thermonuclear powerhouses.

    If Russia pulls out of the WTO, it only makes sense to put 200-500% tariffs on western goods and use the tariff revenue to finance domestic industry. In 2013 the E.U. alone made $200 billion of profits in the Russian market...I hope they lose at least 95% of their market share to domestic industry and nations friendly to Russia.

    After that I hope Russia ends all cooperation on reigning in filesharing, let all the Russophobic media in the world eat the losses from Russia becoming a hub of filesharing lol!

    ...And lastly Russia should team up with Greece and Cyprus and jointly declare a debt moratorium on Western based financial services on public and private debt, and there's no need to pay back debt to countries declaring financial warfare on you...which indicates they don't want the debt to be payed back. Putin foolishly enabled $85 billion worth of debt payed back in 2015, which could of been used for funding space exploration or military rearmament. Russia, Greece, and Cyprus should set up a Debt Moratorium conference in Moscow, and challenge the validity of Duetsche and JP Morgan banks alleged $75 and 70 trillion of derivatives (respectively), and demand to prove the value in hard actual assets. How can any bank accumulate $70+ trillion of anything if their not running a ponzi scheme?

    ...Naturally NATO will try to bully Greece and Cyprus, so it only makes sense to hold referendums to join the Russian federation, to leave the EU and NATO, and declare debt moratoriums. With the vacuum of Western corporations leaving the Russian market, nearly $200 billion/year will be opened up for Greek and Cyprus to take advantage of, and Russian citizen can make up the difference in tourism that was lost in the E.U., Greek and Cyprus could enable capital and exchange controls (to prevent hyperinflation) and slowly peg their currencies to Russian rouble at 50-75% value to make them competitive. Militarily speaking Russia can help regain Northern Cyprus, the Turkish occupied Greek islands for the Greek diaspora, and Russia will gain unlimited warm-water ports and a unsinkable aircraft carrier (Cyprus) to defend Syria and Russian interests in the Middle East.

    Wow. There is a lot here. Suspect

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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Apr 19, 2016 8:10 am

    I wrote a new oped:
    OPED: Economics – What direction I think Russia is choosing and my opinion of it

    Please give insight and any factual errors.
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    Post  kvs on Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:16 pm

    sepheronx wrote:I wrote a new oped:
    OPED: Economics – What direction I think Russia is choosing and my opinion of it

    Please give insight and any factual errors.

    Very comprehensive. Aside from import substitution, securing Russia's finance system must be a key priority. As you not, Russian
    companies are busy paying down debts out of their own pockets instead of refinancing at lower interest rates as they should be doing
    and pumping their capital into new production lines, etc. The retarded/criminal 11% key lending rate by the CBR is the main drag on the
    economy in Russia. It seems Putin is not really on the ball in this case since he should be acting much more quickly to clean house.
    Russia needs a maximum 4% key lending rate from the CBR. This is more than justified. The current inflation rate is at 6% (forget
    the stupid accumulated rate from last year which has no relevance for the current state of the economy). This inflation rate is actually
    what is the rate in Canada and the USA if you remove the shenanigans which make it into 2% by discounting actual prices with meaningless
    feature changes and not taking into account he shrinking size of many consumables (while the price stays the same or increases) and the
    falling quality of products. Russia could actually do with a 2% key lend rate as a form of stimulus. It is highly unlikely that there will be
    a surge in inflation.

    BTW, high interest rates can generate inflation as well. There is an optimum interest rate for which the inflation rate is a minimum:

    http://www.dnaindia.com/money/column-impact-of-high-interest-rates-on-controlling-inflation-has-run-its-course-2113625
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Apr 20, 2016 5:25 am

    Should note though that the government of Russia may be on some sort of cahoots with the CBR on playing a weird game that makes the world think that the main lending rate is 11% but in reality is much lower kind of thing: http://dailyasianage.com/news/13495/putins-50b-oil-cache-helps-russia-to-ignore-ecb

    If this is the case, then it lowers inflation while lending at lower rates to strategic companies. As I have also noted, venture funds is also on the rise in diversification, which gives indication for other types of loans for businesses.
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    Post  A Different Voice on Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:17 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Should note though that the government of Russia may be on some sort of cahoots with the CBR on playing a weird game that makes the world think that the main lending rate is 11% but in reality is much lower kind of thing: http://dailyasianage.com/news/13495/putins-50b-oil-cache-helps-russia-to-ignore-ecb

    If this is the case, then it lowers inflation while lending at lower rates to strategic companies.  As I have also noted, venture funds is also on the rise in diversification, which gives indication for other types of loans for businesses.

    I didn't read anything in that article that indicates that the "main lending rate" is much lower or that banks can borrow money at rates much lower than the official rates.
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:34 pm

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-13/putin-s-50-billion-oil-cache-gives-russia-luxury-to-ignore-ecb
    ussian banks are sitting on the most cash in five years, allowing them to lend to each other at a lower rate than they borrow from the central bank

    Pretty strong implication. As well, venture fund RVC gets its money via gov, so they use it for seed funds.
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    Post  A Different Voice on Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:13 pm

    Big win for Russia in the Yukos litigation. Court ruled in favor of Russia and threw out the $50B arbitration award. This is very good news.

    court throws out $50B arb. award
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:17 pm

    Interesting. Funny how things change quickly and various groups do a 180. Not long ago the Hague ruled in favor against the fifth columnists a foreign organizations. After the court in France though, I find this quite funny.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:24 pm

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36090882

    Yeah, late to the party, but basically this.

    I only can imagine how the butthurt belt is feeling.

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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:09 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-13/putin-s-50-billion-oil-cache-gives-russia-luxury-to-ignore-ecb

    In contrast to unprecedented stimulus measures by European peers, Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, is expected to leave rates unchanged at 11 percent when she convenes policy makers Friday.

    Why are they letting her get away with this? angry
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Apr 20, 2016 8:19 pm

    It is imo a game they are playing against the west. On the top level, it seems they are using high interest rates to curb inflation, but below, the government is flooding cheap cash to banks and possibly other entities to clearly loan out at significantly less interest rates. So it kinda kills two birds with one stone. But it is kinda dirty imo, and officially they want real low inflation. As their belief is that the inflation will kill any long term growth even with low interests. So we will eventually (this or next year) and official rate drop. If max's sources are correct, and there is pressure on CBR to lower rates, then we may see it soon.
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:46 pm

    sepheronx wrote:It is imo a game they are playing against the west. On the top level, it seems they are using high interest rates to curb inflation, but below, the government is flooding cheap cash to banks and possibly other entities to clearly loan out at significantly less interest rates. So it kinda kills two birds with one stone. But it is kinda dirty imo, and officially they want real low inflation. As their belief is that the inflation will kill any long term growth even with low interests. So we will eventually (this or next year) and official rate drop. If max's sources are correct, and there is pressure on CBR to lower rates, then we may see it soon.

    Another "clever plan"? I don't trust them.
    Reduce the interest rates ASAP.

    The single factor holding the Russian economy back now is not the oil price. It is the sky-high real interest rates.

    The very latest guidance from the Central Bank however suggests that even the Central Bank has finally come round to the view that there are no grounds to delay cuts in interest rates for much longer.

    With early cuts in interest rates now likely against the background of what is probably already an ongoing recovery the question would appear to be less whether growth will return but how strong will that growth be.

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