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    Russian Economy General News: #6

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:21 pm

    NationalRus wrote:*Stupid photo that is more ironic than anything*

    You really do not know how the economy works then.  May I suggest looking of the World Bank for more info: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PETC.ZS

    BTW, with more official data, if it was really hard for Russians to sell abroad, then this wouldn't be the case (see Balance of Trade):
    http://rusnews.net63.net/2016/01/29/just-some-recent-economic-data/
    (I provide links and data from open sources)
    If it was a real problem, Russia wouldn't have seen a trade surplus. As Austin pointed out, the share of other products have drastically increased.

    In other news of the economy:
    GRP of the Crimea has grown from 181 billion to 256 billion rubles
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on Sat Apr 09, 2016 8:47 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Austin wrote:KVS , Spheronx , Check the Data for Exports in 2015 plus other data

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/russias-top-10-exports/

    Fish export since 2011

    Fish: $1.4 billion (Up by 1,711%)

    thumbsup

    I am one of the customers so I can attest, especially those canned smoked sprats from Kaliningrad are to die for!!! russia

    Dyedye firespitter,

    Can you please find me a photo of the canned sprats? All the smoked sprats I have come across are from Latvia.
    Thanks.
    NationalRus
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    Post  NationalRus on Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:10 pm

    me and mike are probably the only ones who actually have read and own books on economics but over a decade in the internet and half one hear teaches one not to argue for to long with mentally challenged tubgirl's, people now arguing that one of the harshest trade laws in the world is basically now a good thing... yeah ...

    Russian Economy General News: #6 - Page 22 Image
    max steel
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    Post  max steel on Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:53 pm

    Good news! Russia's key interest rate will finally be lowered. Nabiullina, Russian CB chief, has today raised the white flag, after half a year holed up in their ivory tower the Central Bank directors are capitulating in the face of overwhelming evidence that the inflation is half of what they have insisted it is. - If they now would follow the market, this could mean a significant improvement of the Russian economy.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Apr 10, 2016 8:21 am

    Loose market laws means the market self regulates... which means the government no longer controls the economy... big international companies do.

    If the WTO is so fucking fantastic WTF is TPP and its european equivalent for?

    The WTO screwed NZ... we no longer have a car assembly industry, or a clothing industry because we could no longer say no to cheap imports that ruined our local producers.

    the irony is that our better performing companies now produce products in other countries and have practically become foreign companies themselves like Fisher & Pakel...

    I say keep your tight regulations and make businesses jump through hoops... and make the bastards pay tax.
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    Austin

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    Post  Austin on Sun Apr 10, 2016 8:29 am

    Russia c.bank says dollar makes up 47.5 pct of forex reserves

    http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-reserves-cenbank-idUSR4N0ZP02M

    The Russian central bank said on Friday that the U.S. dollar amounted to 47.5 percent of the country's foreign exchange reserves as of the end of September.

    The euro made up 38.9 percent of the reserves, the British pound 9.5 percent, Canadian dollar 3.1 percent, Australian dollar 1 percent and Japanese yen 0.1 percent, the central bank said. (Reporting by Lidia Kelly; Editing by Alexander Winning)

    Just wondering when would CBR add Renminbi to its reserve portfolio ?

    I would like to see a forex ratio like

    Gold - 40 %
    USD - 20 %
    Euro - 20 %
    Renminbi - 8 %
    Other - 2 %
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    Post  Austin on Sun Apr 10, 2016 8:34 am

    Jim Rickards new book , "New Case for Gold"

    Check the interview with Jim Rickards its insightful

    http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2016-0402-2.mp3
    NationalRus
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    Post  NationalRus on Sun Apr 10, 2016 11:41 am

    Yeah special small and middle businesses. Need to be tightened up the guys who literally could be your neighbor, you hear a guy talking about opening up a businesses, employing people taking a risk, paying taxes? Punch him in the face and say you hope the regime will stop him and fuck him up!

    NZ has it very rough and tough all this poverty and misery their, no comparison to such prosperous nations like Brazil... Lmao
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Apr 10, 2016 5:27 pm

    max steel wrote:Good news! Russia's key interest rate will finally be lowered. Nabiullina, Russian CB chief, has today raised the white flag, after half a year holed up in their ivory tower the Central Bank directors are capitulating in the face of overwhelming evidence that the inflation is half of what they have insisted it is. - If they now would follow the market, this could mean a significant improvement of the Russian economy.

    Do you happen to have a link? I can't find one.
    OminousSpudd
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    Post  OminousSpudd on Sun Apr 10, 2016 8:19 pm

    NationalRus wrote:Yeah special small and middle businesses. Need to be tightened up the guys who literally could be your neighbor, you hear a guy talking about opening up a businesses, employing people taking a risk, paying taxes? Punch him in the face and say you hope the regime will stop him and fuck him up!

    NZ has it very rough and tough all this poverty and misery their, no comparison to such prosperous nations like Brazil... Lmao
    You know nothing about the NZ economy...
    A Different Voice
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    Russian Economy General News: #6 - Page 22 Empty current account surplus plunges for 1st quarter

    Post  A Different Voice on Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:47 pm

    Current account surplus for the quarter is dramatically down as compared to 2015.

    per RIA Novosti

    per Reuters


    Having a significant current account surplus is good news. A quarterly reduction from $30 Billion to $11.7 Billion is seems drastic. I assume the drop has to be caused caused by a reduction in the Dollar value of Russian exports and trade drying up with Ukraine.  Just a guess.

    The Ruble has appreciated in value beautifully this year along with increase in oil prices. I would think those developments will greatly improve the current account surplus going forward.

    The linked articles mention the reduction of capital outflows and its main component, the repayment of foreign debt, as well.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:06 pm

    It will give opposite effect what you are thinking. A higher valued Ruble will make it more expensive for other countries purchasing from Russia, which may result in fewer purchases from abroad. Import on other hand has barely dropped which indicates that Russia's consumption rate is bottoming out (possibly). Regardless, this isn't good as this will affect them later. Rubles value will need to drop again in order to make up loss from export.

    The world economy isn't doing well, so other countries are reducing imports and this will affect Russia. As long as they maintain a positive current account surplus, it is good. But they should reduce imports further and try to push more export such as food.

    If current trends stays the same as last year periods between may to Dec, Russian CAS may be roughly $100B or roughly $50 - 60B less than last year. And while having a surplus is good, it will affect overall gdp numbers since exports and imports are calculated in its numbers. May not mean much overall but gives ammo to anti Russian propaganda.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:47 pm

    You do make a good point though. We need to see the amount in Ruble terms vs USD, since Ruble is worth less than last year.

    Edit: after doing comparison, Russia not gaining on average quite a lot in trade surplus so far: roughly 400B rubles per month vs last year's jan-feb


    Last edited by sepheronx on Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
    A Different Voice
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    Post  A Different Voice on Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:00 pm

    sepheronx wrote:But they should reduce imports further and try to push more export such as food.

    Reducing imports will become harder going forward due to the appreciation of the Ruble recently making imports more attractive then they were toward the end of 2015.

    However, with the value of oil up sharply from its lows, the total $ value of Russian exports may also rebound shortly. I also think sanctions/bad blood with trading partners won't get any worse going forward.
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    Post  max steel on Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:09 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    max steel wrote:Good news! Russia's key interest rate will finally be lowered.

    Do you happen to have a link? I can't find one.

    They did not announce the steps of lowering it and not even the exact time. This is how central bankers prepare the market for the changes, by first signalling the road. I think however that they will proceed in steps, first step could be as little as 0.5% although I think it could well be 1.5%. Anyway, by the end of the year it could have gone down to 8.5 or 9% from present 11%. That would be quite significant, although again, I would think it could well go down further by that time.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:32 pm

    I was reading on business snaps yesterday on RT they want to lower to 4% by next year. Hmmm.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:50 pm

    A Different Voice wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:But they should reduce imports further and try to push more export such as food.

    Reducing imports will become harder going forward due to the appreciation of the Ruble recently making imports more attractive then they were toward the end of 2015.  

    However, with the value of oil up sharply from its lows, the total $ value of Russian exports may also rebound shortly. I also think sanctions/bad blood  with trading partners won't get any worse going forward.

    They will have to curb it cause imports will cause damage to Russian economy. Funny thing is too, that manufacturing PMI dropped. Mostly I imagine from auto sales (since automotive is a fair % of overall Russian manufacturing base), all the while documented growth (major) in area like heavy machinery (trucks, agriculture, etc) plastics and food. Yet still an overall drop. I think Russian economy is too reliant on auto sales it seems.

    Consumers are doing what they do best, hurt their own economy. Consumer spending dropped as well, which brings in the results we see.

    Other issue is we don't get a full picture so it is hard to determine what's going on.
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    Post  kvs on Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:15 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    A Different Voice wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:But they should reduce imports further and try to push more export such as food.

    Reducing imports will become harder going forward due to the appreciation of the Ruble recently making imports more attractive then they were toward the end of 2015.  

    However, with the value of oil up sharply from its lows, the total $ value of Russian exports may also rebound shortly. I also think sanctions/bad blood  with trading partners won't get any worse going forward.

    They will have to curb it cause imports will cause damage to Russian economy. Funny thing is too, that manufacturing PMI dropped. Mostly I imagine from auto sales (since automotive is a fair % of overall Russian manufacturing base), all the while documented growth (major) in area like heavy machinery (trucks, agriculture, etc) plastics and food. Yet still an overall drop. I think Russian economy is too reliant on auto sales it seems.

    Consumers are doing what they do best, hurt their own economy. Consumer spending dropped as well, which brings in the results we see.

    Other issue is we don't get a full picture so it is hard to determine what's going on.

    I bet the PMI does not involve the military industrial complex. I can't believe that the automobile industry is such a big player. Russia is not
    Germany or Japan and it does not have huge automobile exports. So the fraction of this industry in Russia's GDP has to be much smaller.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:54 pm

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    A Different Voice wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:But they should reduce imports further and try to push more export such as food.

    Reducing imports will become harder going forward due to the appreciation of the Ruble recently making imports more attractive then they were toward the end of 2015.  

    However, with the value of oil up sharply from its lows, the total $ value of Russian exports may also rebound shortly. I also think sanctions/bad blood  with trading partners won't get any worse going forward.

    They will have to curb it cause imports will cause damage to Russian economy. Funny thing is too, that manufacturing PMI dropped. Mostly I imagine from auto sales (since automotive is a fair % of overall Russian manufacturing base), all the while documented growth (major) in area like heavy machinery (trucks, agriculture, etc) plastics and food. Yet still an overall drop. I think Russian economy is too reliant on auto sales it seems.

    Consumers are doing what they do best, hurt their own economy. Consumer spending dropped as well, which brings in the results we see.

    Other issue is we don't get a full picture so it is hard to determine what's going on.

    I bet the PMI does not involve the military industrial complex.  I can't believe that the automobile industry is such a big player.  Russia is not
    Germany or Japan and it does not have huge automobile exports.   So the fraction of this industry in Russia's GDP has to be much smaller.

    It outright employs roughly 700,000 people in Russia and supports over 2.2 million in terms of parts and services.  So it is a huge part of the manufacturing process.  Because if you look at other manufacturing types, there is a boom: Textiles are booming as outside companies are looking at local producers to make clothing cheaper for Russian market, energy equipment sales surge as import substitution looks to modernizing old wells or export of high tech like Rosatoms massive outstanding contracts and same with Power Machines and their equipment sales, to agricultural machinery entering markets they never did before.  Only real industry that has seen a massive drop was automotive in Russia.  So this is the only thing I can think of.  Unless someone else has other data on the breakup of sectors in the manufacturing industry that are accounted part of the PMI.

    Don't forget, the PMI only looks at roughly 300 companies, and employment is part of the calculations as well (20% of it).  Since employment is dropping or at least with various companies mixed with Automotive industries constantly stalling production and thus shutting down production for months on end, gives me the indication that is the industry they mostly look at.

    If you look here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/manufacturing-pmi You will see that the PMI has been low for quite some time, yet we here that average profit for companies in 2015 in Russia was 48%. So if that is the case, then something is wrong here, cause a company cannot profit if they don't operate. But then again, the measurements are interesting to say the least:
    following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.

    So they put emphasis on other things that may not really make much sense to add in - employment (for instance, factories with all automation will have a minimum to no workforce, so does that mean they do not grow?) and suppliers delivery times.
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    Post  NationalRus on Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:35 am

    OminousSpudd wrote:
    NationalRus wrote:Yeah special small and middle businesses. Need to be tightened up the guys who literally could be your neighbor, you hear a guy talking about opening up a businesses, employing people taking a risk, paying taxes? Punch him in the face and say you hope the regime will stop him and fuck him up!

    NZ has it very rough and tough all this poverty and misery their, no comparison to such prosperous nations like Brazil... Lmao
    You know nothing about the NZ economy...

    enlighten me about your misery lol1 looks like physical presence in this 3rd world country is needed lol1 lol1
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:27 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    A Different Voice wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:But they should reduce imports further and try to push more export such as food.

    Reducing imports will become harder going forward due to the appreciation of the Ruble recently making imports more attractive then they were toward the end of 2015.  

    However, with the value of oil up sharply from its lows, the total $ value of Russian exports may also rebound shortly. I also think sanctions/bad blood  with trading partners won't get any worse going forward.

    They will have to curb it cause imports will cause damage to Russian economy. Funny thing is too, that manufacturing PMI dropped. Mostly I imagine from auto sales (since automotive is a fair % of overall Russian manufacturing base), all the while documented growth (major) in area like heavy machinery (trucks, agriculture, etc) plastics and food. Yet still an overall drop. I think Russian economy is too reliant on auto sales it seems.

    Consumers are doing what they do best, hurt their own economy. Consumer spending dropped as well, which brings in the results we see.

    Other issue is we don't get a full picture so it is hard to determine what's going on.

    I bet the PMI does not involve the military industrial complex.  I can't believe that the automobile industry is such a big player.  Russia is not
    Germany or Japan and it does not have huge automobile exports.   So the fraction of this industry in Russia's GDP has to be much smaller.

    It outright employs roughly 700,000 people in Russia and supports over 2.2 million in terms of parts and services.  So it is a huge part of the manufacturing process.  Because if you look at other manufacturing types, there is a boom: Textiles are booming as outside companies are looking at local producers to make clothing cheaper for Russian market, energy equipment sales surge as import substitution looks to modernizing old wells or export of high tech like Rosatoms massive outstanding contracts and same with Power Machines and their equipment sales, to agricultural machinery entering markets they never did before.  Only real industry that has seen a massive drop was automotive in Russia.  So this is the only thing I can think of.  Unless someone else has other data on the breakup of sectors in the manufacturing industry that are accounted part of the PMI.

    Don't forget, the PMI only looks at roughly 300 companies, and employment is part of the calculations as well (20% of it).  Since employment is dropping or at least with various companies mixed with Automotive industries constantly stalling production and thus shutting down production for months on end, gives me the indication that is the industry they mostly look at.

    If you look here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/manufacturing-pmi  You will see that the PMI has been low for quite some time, yet we here that average profit for companies in 2015 in Russia was 48%.  So if that is the case, then something is wrong here, cause a company cannot profit if they don't operate.  But then again, the measurements are interesting to say the least:
    following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.

    So they put emphasis on other things that may not really make much sense to add in - employment (for instance, factories with all automation will have a minimum to no workforce, so does that mean they do not grow?) and suppliers delivery times.  

    My point was not that Avtovaz, etc make no contribution. My point was that the calculation of the PMI is more than likely consumer-centric and MIC
    companies are not polled to produce the PMI. But even your numbers point to the automobile industry employing a fraction of the Russian work
    force so it cannot be the main driver of the PMI variations.
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Apr 12, 2016 4:11 am

    If we had a breakdown of what industries are involved in, it could give us a better indication. Cause I am at a loss here on understanding it. I mean, we were told that over 38 thousand companies made a profit last year: http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/74684/&usg=ALkJrhg-pjOocn0C-8GgmHe8bZWRf_nEeg

    So something is very seriously wrong on the calculations from the institute that measures PMI. As well, we get news like this:
    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/75691/&usg=ALkJrhhSLxRCPHiDG8VoZ5k_hXrgei9A4A
    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/76037/&usg=ALkJrhgLY1RFAHBUPa51kNTIEtjMJjbJzg
    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/75357/&usg=ALkJrhiJls4Ov9Pn3y_Hv1IvOOxyBs2t5A
    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/76383/&usg=ALkJrhjiINx5kaF1YMog1s33SGvAPspkWg
    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ie=UTF8&rurl=translate.google.com&tl=en&u=http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/76265/&usg=ALkJrhi88W6YVvrdkq-o_d0rYefNuu5bqw

    really paints a different picture. Now the question is, does this account for production or manufacturing? Because as far as I am aware, this is manufacturing. But for some reason when mentioning Kamaz, it mentions production. Which industrial production is up.....
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Apr 12, 2016 3:12 pm

    http://tass.ru/en/economy/868990
    https://www.rt.com/business/339305-kudrin-russia-putin-economy/

    So now I can see why Kudrin's attitude has changed. His comments from before (recent) were quite mild and not excessive. It is because of the job he was offered by the government. Kudrin initially shot himself in the foot with him running to US and bad mouthing medvedev and his protests with Navalny. So he will won't be finance minister due to his unpopularity. But he will be heading the council of strategic affairs. I guess that job post will hopefully shut him up.

    Peskov comment that he was the best, is a joke though. Kudrin did little other than the reserve fund. His job as economic minister was supposed to be in diversification but he didn't do squat. Hence why Russia now is dealing with import substitution. His idea to drop defense budget is a bad idea for both security and the economy too. He should at least know this as an economics person.

    Anyway, rant over. Point is, he ain't returning to Kremlin. Just gonna be a bigger mouth on sidelines.
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Apr 13, 2016 5:08 pm

    Sweet deal! China increased imports of Russian sweets
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:14 pm

    http://tass.ru/en/economy/869414

    So minimum wage will increase by another 21% from the 4% already. More or less to get people above inflation rate and spur consumption. Not a drastic jump but one that is needed. It is handled by budget more so than companies (guess through government exemptions) so it shouldn't increase inflation either. Should also entice companies who pay much more to also have more competitive wages.

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