Syrian Civil War: News #4

Since the country is legaly ruled by Assad, he has to make it clear that the Germans, UK and such are not welcomed and not allowed to fly in their country. He has yet to make such a remark.

sepheronx wrote:Since the country is legaly ruled by Assad, he has to make it clear that the Germans, UK and such are not welcomed and not allowed to fly in their country. He has yet to make such a remark.

Very interesting point. There is clearly some reason why the Syrian Government, not just Assad, who may well just be their figurehead and useful fall guy, has not done so.

My take is that it could well have something to do with not being able to stop anyone should they have told them to, or even with UN Article 51 on self defence. By co-incidence I linked earlier to a Sputnik release today on that very subject, here is a part

"On top of collective self-defense of Iraq, Cameron said that Daesh's campaign against the UK and its allies had reached the level of an "armed attack" against them. The reference is to Article 51 of the UN Charter, which gives states the right to self-defense when an attack occurs. To justify military action on the basis of self-defense, states must prove that the threatened attack is imminent and that self-defense is necessary and proportionate. Furthermore, if the UK is to legally use self-defense as a reason to attack Daesh targets in Syria, it must be proved that the Syrian government forces are "unwilling or unable" to prevent attacks on foreign territories."

Had the Syrians bared outright any intervention then the attacking countries may have claimed Article 51 protection as Syria was not "willing or able" to stop terrorist attacks in their countries and it wasn't. Since the end of September, with Russian help, that situation seems to be rapidly changing so there may well soon be a case that that clearly no longer applies.

When it happens Syria will be able to take control of its sovereignty, say that they are "willing and able" tell everyone to stay out or else and be able to enforce it with the help of Russia.

A second RuAF base would be the game changer in this. With its increased capacity and extra S-400(s) covering the rest of the country properly, with minimal radar shadow areas. This is no doubt one of the reasons why Russia and the Government are pushing as hard as they can and why US/NATO is trying to cut them off at the pass by boosting their assets.

Rebels of Ahrar ash Sham flog two men for not closing their shops during Friday prayers:

https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/671497611220791296

85 ATGM launches in November 2015:



14 - Jaysh al-Nasr (Ghab Hawks Union)
12 - 1st Coastal Division
10 - Thuwar ash-Sham Battalions
7 - Fursan al-Haqq Brigade
7 - Mountain Hawks Brigade
7 - Central Division (Saifullah Brigade)
5 - Pride Army (Pride Union)
4 - 13th Division
4 - Sultan Murad Brigade
4 - 101th Infantry Division
3 - Nouredin Zanki Movement
3 - ISIS
1 - Nusra Front
1 - 46th Division
1 - 16th Division
1 - Aswad as-Sana Division
1 - Sham Front



73 - TOW
4 - Metis
3 - Fagot
3 - Red Arrow (ISIS)
1 - Kornet
1 - Konkurs



52 - Aleppo (including 45 in South Aleppo)
15 - N. Hama
12 - Latakia
3 - E. Homs (ISIS)
2 - Ghab Plain
1 - Daraa

Source + videos: http://justpaste.it/NovemberATGM
Source for graf: https://twitter.com/yarinah1/status/671577596807770113

I choked on my soda...

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 1 hour ago
#SAA #RuAF advance on Jabal Al-Akrad taking Arafit from #Turkey backed militants #Latakia



Военный Советник ‏@miladvisor 1 hour ago
New map.#Latakia mountains. #SAA take control of Arafit,Rweiset Sheikho & Ketf Al-Salatt

http://tass.ru/en/politics/840603

Dunno if it is due to translation or something, but Peskov is not doing himself or Putin any favors. By the sounds of his wording, they are stepping back from their claims about evidence of Turkeys elite purchasing Daesh oil.

sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/politics/840603

Dunno if it is due to translation or something, but Peskov is not doing himself or Putin any favors. By the sounds of his wording, they are stepping back from their claims about evidence of Turkeys elite purchasing Daesh oil.

Not to keep beating a dead horse, but putin said about the ukrainians, 'just let them dare to shoot at their own people, when we are behind them' and sent his army to the border for 'exercises' to try and scare the ukrainians from beginning the war.

When that bluff failed he backed down and chose another path. It wouldnt surprise me to see russia once again choosing another way round this situation, which will certainly result in other 'incidents' in future that russian servicemen or civilians will have to pay for in blood.

sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/politics/840603

Dunno if it is due to translation or something, but Peskov is not doing himself or Putin any favors. By the sounds of his wording, they are stepping back from their claims about evidence of Turkeys elite purchasing Daesh oil.

Uh?

Nope, there's clear evidence Oil from Syria is going in Turkey. In such quantities that it can't be some people selling this on the border. To the contrary.
Now there's enough plausible deniability attached to the personna of Erdogan ( no shit). The problem is that the oil isn't disappearing (although Turkey is the Twilight zone).

Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

sepheronx wrote:Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

And what do you want to do here? Attack Turkey straight shooting and then end up with a situation that gets Turkey to initiate WW3? Turkey had its 15 minutes of glory, shot "by mistake" a Russian jet. All this isn't really getting Russia out of focus or track. With the catch that Turkey can't cross Iraqi AS or Syrian AS under no circumstance what so ever. Probabaly the other planes will also avoid the area allowing Kurds and Syrians a repit. This means that if the Kurds are smart they man up and push to unite the Kurdish areas and seal the border. That's why you had FSA whores trying to knock them out of Aleppo.

Also again, how are you going to prove that the people who deal with ISIS locally are on Erdogan payroll. Off course Erdross knows about this, even touches his protection money, but you can't prove it. Or shall we talk about how much you could prove Russians were in Donbass?

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:http://tass.ru/en/politics/840603

Dunno if it is due to translation or something, but Peskov is not doing himself or Putin any favors. By the sounds of his wording, they are stepping back from their claims about evidence of Turkeys elite purchasing Daesh oil.

Uh?

Nope, there's clear evidence Oil from Syria is going in Turkey. In such quantities that it can't be some people selling this on the border. To the contrary.
Now there's enough plausible deniability attached to the personna of Erdogan ( no shit). The problem is that the oil isn't disappearing (although Turkey is the Twilight zone).

The issue isnt the evidence. The issue is why bother hiding it? Turkey under Erdogan not only is responsible for killing one of Russias own, but refuses to appologize or anything regarsing it. Threatens Russia even more.  And yet, Russia isnt going to stick it to them? All this will do is help cause more Russian casulties as it shows Russias heavy weakness in politics.  Erdogan is classified as a strong leader as he just stuck it to Russia with little to no actual reprecussions on his part.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

And what do you want to do here? Attack Turkey straight shooting and then end up with a situation that gets Turkey to initiate WW3? Turkey had its 15 minutes of glory, shot "by mistake" a Russian jet. All this isn't really getting Russia out of focus or track. With the catch that Turkey can't cross Iraqi AS or Syrian AS under no circumstance what so ever. Probabaly the other planes will also avoid the area allowing Kurds and Syrians a repit. This means that if the Kurds are smart they man up and push to unite the Kurdish areas and seal the border. That's why you had FSA whores trying to knock them out of Aleppo.

Also again, how are you going to prove that the people who deal with ISIS locally are on Erdogan payroll. Off course Erdross knows about this, even touches his protection money, but you can't prove it. Or shall we talk about how much you could prove Russians were in Donbass?

Well, for starters, total sanctions against turkey. Yet Russia isnt banning various imports like clothing from Turkey and as well still hoping on turk stream pipeline according to tass.  So in other words, business as usual.  Russia was all empty talk about sanctions but all they are sanctioning is some food and closed some dual projects.  So nothing that actually affects Turkey.

What a load of shit Putin is.
[size=40]http://tass.ru/en/economy/840692[/size]

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

And what do you want to do here? Attack Turkey straight shooting and then end up with a situation that gets Turkey to initiate WW3? Turkey had its 15 minutes of glory, shot "by mistake" a Russian jet. All this isn't really getting Russia out of focus or track. With the catch that Turkey can't cross Iraqi AS or Syrian AS under no circumstance what so ever. Probabaly the other planes will also avoid the area allowing Kurds and Syrians a repit. This means that if the Kurds are smart they man up and push to unite the Kurdish areas and seal the border. That's why you had FSA whores trying to knock them out of Aleppo.

Also again, how are you going to prove that the people who deal with ISIS locally are on Erdogan payroll. Off course Erdross knows about this, even touches his protection money, but you can't prove it. Or shall we talk about how much you could prove Russians were in Donbass?

Well, for starters, total sanctions against turkey. Yet Russia isnt banning various imports like clothing from Turkey and as well still hoping on turk stream pipeline according to tass.  So in other words, business as usual.  Russia was all empty talk about sanctions but all they are sanctioning is some food and closed some dual projects.  So nothing that actually affects Turkey.

What a load of shit Putin is.
[size=40]http://tass.ru/en/economy/840692[/size]

All main projects are dead as we speak. Until there's revenge or there's apology (revenge is a given, apology I don't care). The best answer so far is helping the kurds clear the border. Russia is showing a lot of maturity for a "mob state". So you cool down and wait for the bell.

http://www.syriareport.net/the-silent-hereos-of-the-kuweires-offensive-the-ismaelis/

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

And what do you want to do here? Attack Turkey straight shooting and then end up with a situation that gets Turkey to initiate WW3? Turkey had its 15 minutes of glory, shot "by mistake" a Russian jet. All this isn't really getting Russia out of focus or track. With the catch that Turkey can't cross Iraqi AS or Syrian AS under no circumstance what so ever. Probabaly the other planes will also avoid the area allowing Kurds and Syrians a repit. This means that if the Kurds are smart they man up and push to unite the Kurdish areas and seal the border. That's why you had FSA whores trying to knock them out of Aleppo.

Also again, how are you going to prove that the people who deal with ISIS locally are on Erdogan payroll. Off course Erdross knows about this, even touches his protection money, but you can't prove it. Or shall we talk about how much you could prove Russians were in Donbass?

Well, for starters, total sanctions against turkey. Yet Russia isnt banning various imports like clothing from Turkey and as well still hoping on turk stream pipeline according to tass.  So in other words, business as usual.  Russia was all empty talk about sanctions but all they are sanctioning is some food and closed some dual projects.  So nothing that actually affects Turkey.

What a load of shit Putin is.
[size=48]http://tass.ru/en/economy/840692[/size]

All main projects are dead as we speak. Until there's revenge or there's apology (revenge is a given, apology I don't care). The best answer so far is helping the kurds clear the border. Russia is showing a lot of maturity for a "mob state". So you cool down and wait for the bell.

Dunno what grants it as acting mature or if it is helping the situation.  So far, it just makes Russia look weak and people are now possibly taking advantage of this (Ukraine building up massive force at Crimean border).  For some reason, there is a real lack of a response.  To state that the projects are dead isnt rightly so.  It has to be official and so far, they didnt sanction it.  So it also makes Russia look like a joke in this case.

As sad as the 2008 war happened, it actually solved a lot of issues for Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  Yet here we are with Ukraine and no response to the Turks aggression.

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

And what do you want to do here? Attack Turkey straight shooting and then end up with a situation that gets Turkey to initiate WW3? Turkey had its 15 minutes of glory, shot "by mistake" a Russian jet. All this isn't really getting Russia out of focus or track. With the catch that Turkey can't cross Iraqi AS or Syrian AS under no circumstance what so ever. Probabaly the other planes will also avoid the area allowing Kurds and Syrians a repit. This means that if the Kurds are smart they man up and push to unite the Kurdish areas and seal the border. That's why you had FSA whores trying to knock them out of Aleppo.

Also again, how are you going to prove that the people who deal with ISIS locally are on Erdogan payroll. Off course Erdross knows about this, even touches his protection money, but you can't prove it. Or shall we talk about how much you could prove Russians were in Donbass?

Well, for starters, total sanctions against turkey. Yet Russia isnt banning various imports like clothing from Turkey and as well still hoping on turk stream pipeline according to tass.  So in other words, business as usual.  Russia was all empty talk about sanctions but all they are sanctioning is some food and closed some dual projects.  So nothing that actually affects Turkey.

What a load of shit Putin is.
[size=48]http://tass.ru/en/economy/840692[/size]

All main projects are dead as we speak. Until there's revenge or there's apology (revenge is a given, apology I don't care). The best answer so far is helping the kurds clear the border. Russia is showing a lot of maturity for a "mob state". So you cool down and wait for the bell.

Dunno what grants it as acting mature or if it is helping the situation.  So far, it just makes Russia look weak and people are now possibly taking advantage of this (Ukraine building up massive force at Crimean border).  For some reason, there is a real lack of a response.  To state that the projects are dead isnt rightly so.  It has to be official and so far, they didnt sanction it.  So it also makes Russia look like a joke in this case.

As sad as the 2008 war happened, it actually solved a lot of issues for Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  Yet here we are with Ukraine and no response to the Turks aggression.

You seem to forget that Russian diplomacy nowadays contains elements of the Sun Tzu strategies.

In this case, besides the fact that (as with any proper crime gang boss) there will be no direct evidence and everyone knows it, Russia is making the point that it can make life difficult for him if it wants but that it is not going to back Erdogan into a corner. They have seen how he reacts when just hurt a bit, it is in no-one's interests to test him in a corner.

Also that between countries like Russia and Turkey this is, in the great scheme of things, a minor spat. Serfs dying on the front line is to be avoided if possible but is just one of those things. The 'trade machine' is very different and both sides will attempt to protect it. OK the leaders are playing to their galleries now, doing superficial things for their electorates but they are avoiding the things that matter. Because they know that, to a very large extent, they can manipulate their electorates whilst they can't do that with their 'powers behind the scenes'. History shows that to virtually any Government, money is far more important than lives.

Anyway, I doubt following the Syrian action that many think Russia is weak willed.

JohninMK wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

And what do you want to do here? Attack Turkey straight shooting and then end up with a situation that gets Turkey to initiate WW3? Turkey had its 15 minutes of glory, shot "by mistake" a Russian jet. All this isn't really getting Russia out of focus or track. With the catch that Turkey can't cross Iraqi AS or Syrian AS under no circumstance what so ever. Probabaly the other planes will also avoid the area allowing Kurds and Syrians a repit. This means that if the Kurds are smart they man up and push to unite the Kurdish areas and seal the border. That's why you had FSA whores trying to knock them out of Aleppo.

Also again, how are you going to prove that the people who deal with ISIS locally are on Erdogan payroll. Off course Erdross knows about this, even touches his protection money, but you can't prove it. Or shall we talk about how much you could prove Russians were in Donbass?

Well, for starters, total sanctions against turkey. Yet Russia isnt banning various imports like clothing from Turkey and as well still hoping on turk stream pipeline according to tass.  So in other words, business as usual.  Russia was all empty talk about sanctions but all they are sanctioning is some food and closed some dual projects.  So nothing that actually affects Turkey.

What a load of shit Putin is.
[size=48]http://tass.ru/en/economy/840692[/size]

All main projects are dead as we speak. Until there's revenge or there's apology (revenge is a given, apology I don't care). The best answer so far is helping the kurds clear the border. Russia is showing a lot of maturity for a "mob state". So you cool down and wait for the bell.

Dunno what grants it as acting mature or if it is helping the situation.  So far, it just makes Russia look weak and people are now possibly taking advantage of this (Ukraine building up massive force at Crimean border).  For some reason, there is a real lack of a response.  To state that the projects are dead isnt rightly so.  It has to be official and so far, they didnt sanction it.  So it also makes Russia look like a joke in this case.

As sad as the 2008 war happened, it actually solved a lot of issues for Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  Yet here we are with Ukraine and no response to the Turks aggression.

You seem to forget that Russian diplomacy nowadays contains elements of the Sun Tzu strategies.

In this case, besides the fact that (as with any proper crime gang boss) there will be no direct evidence and everyone knows it, Russia is making the point that it can make life difficult for him if it wants but that it is not going to back Erdogan into a corner. They have seen how he reacts when just hurt a bit, it is in no-one's interests to test him in a corner.

Also that between countries like Russia and Turkey this is, in the great scheme of things, a minor spat. Serfs dying on the front line is to be avoided if possible but is just one of those things. The 'trade machine' is very different and both sides will attempt to protect it. OK the leaders are playing to their galleries now, doing superficial things for their electorates but they are avoiding the things that matter. Because they know that, to a very large extent, they can manipulate their electorates whilst they can't do that with their 'powers behind the scenes'. History shows that to virtually any Government, money is far more important than lives.

Anyway, I doubt following the Syrian action that many think Russia is weak willed.

So we can break it down to Putin wont do f all and that he is just lying to his people about acting tough and strong when he is just pathetic.  Sorry, but that doesnt fly well with me.

http://sputniknews.com/business/20151201/1031069968/russia-turkish-stream-partnership.html

These Russian politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

sepheronx wrote:Pretty pathetic really. When various opposition groups said Putin was soft, they were correct.  I wonder what is preventing them from actually calling people out? Media loves to say Putin does it, but all these little kremlings like Pushkov says something entirely different.  I dont like it.  Wonder how many incidences and deaths Russians will put up with till they tell Putin to act or get lost and get someone else to do it?

Lets first see if Russia is fully geared up/armed to step into a full blown war...in my opinion not, and probably to an extend can hold out.
But holding out is not the option to fall upon, the option to break out the 'international siege' and decimate the opponents is whats required. It is by taking this reality that most of the decisions are made and compromises need to be made when available so as to buy time. I repeat again, like I said few times earlier in other posts, the more time Russia can buy, the better as it will allow more military assets to join the services!

I'm personally concerned about severe lack of naval assets and would love to buy time as much as possible at the same time successfully continue with the "regular duties" like in Syria.

sepheronx wrote:http://sputniknews.com/business/20151201/1031069968/russia-turkish-stream-partnership.html

These Russian politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

Russian strategy has been to cut the Turkish revenue from Russia and not (yet) to stop the Russian revenue from Turkey.

The N-plan, Turkish pipeline, Gas supplies, wheat exports are all good revenue for Russian Govt and they are not yet ready to block it. But if it gets going very rough, to put pressure on Turkish Govt, they might cut off the gas...

The simple stuff we need to understand here is - objective here is to cut Turkish revenues from Russia or by using Russians (tourists).

Then they are showing their hand in reliance on Turkish money and so Turkey will push further.  Sanctions on Turkey are currently nothing. And you think Turkey will agree to all this?

Something is really wrong with Russian leadership.  There has been not a single tough response to the killing of a Russian pilot and they hope to get a contract still for that pipeline.

sepheronx wrote:Then they are showing their hand in reliance on Turkish money and so Turkey will push further.  Sanctions on Turkey are currently nothing. And you think Turkey will agree to all this?

Something is really wrong with Russian leadership.  There has been not a single tough response to the killing of a Russian pilot and they hope to get a contract still for that pipeline.

Turkey has not yet apologized and probably taking a lesson from their US masters, who are always right and never apologize and express only "regret".
There is no point is criticizing Putin for everything as the Russian Govt is up against a loaded opposition but progressing slowly and steadily. That must be the stuff to consider. How many nation in this world can bulldoze against such an opposition?? NIL! Not even the US.
Lets wait and watch...a time will come when some Turkeys get caught inside Syria.

sepheronx wrote:Then they are showing their hand in reliance on Turkish money and so Turkey will push further.  Sanctions on Turkey are currently nothing. And you think Turkey will agree to all this?

Something is really wrong with Russian leadership.  There has been not a single tough response to the killing of a Russian pilot and they hope to get a contract still for that pipeline.

There is little wrong with the leadership, they are just doing what leaders have done for hundreds of years. Putting their, and the country's of course, interests first. What is certain is that the US will be trying to drive the biggest wedge it can into the situation.

In this case both sides might agree that the destruction by the RuAF in the area the Su-24 came down in, over the following couple of days, was an appropriate and sufficient eye for an eye. There could have been serious Turkish casualties that it is in neither sides interests to expose. We just do not know.

Statistically, there is a good chance that it is safer for Russian servicemen to be in Syria than it would be to be on a major exercise in Russia.