Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes

franco wrote:So you said one time that you had served in the US Navy. So these are the 15 boats going from the Caspian to the Black Sea, FFS they are not even ships and have very little combat use outside of the Volga River system.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12354276@egNews

flamming_python wrote:...All excellent reasons of course

But why now, 2 months before Nord Stream 2 is finished

Which of course, is more valuable than some dilapidated shipyards and factories

HATO moving into the Ukraine, Russia will likely start producing IRCMs and IRBMs to target the infrastructure of HATO so any attack launched from the Ukraine border can be responded to very quickly by a nuclear strike on Brussels and the HATO headquarters.

Does it matter... I wouldn't trust the Orcs if they reopened the water flow.... I would be checking it for poison and diseases and other dirty tricks so there really is no alternative to solving the problem themselves.

There is agriculture there and tourism... such industries make water supply pretty much a priority and worth spending money on.

It is a Ukrainian land of people turned against Russia, and there is plenty of arable land in Russia that could do with investment and development... let America and the EU fix what they broke.

Try to help them and they are as likely to lash out and attack Russia... just leave them to it.

Perhaps people don't want to leave...

I am sure Kiev would come up with an 80% tax on any earnings earned in Russia sent back to the Ukraine to punish those Russian speaking traitors to the Ukraine...

..they don't have the C4IR to use them before getting obliterated first.

Their value would be their scrap metal value and two or three An-178s would be museum pieces as they are designed to have Ukrainian parts, not Russian ones, so nothing would be compatible with anything the Russians have...

Tsavo Lion wrote:

HATO moving into the Ukraine, Russia will likely start producing IRCMs and IRBMs to target the infrastructure of HATO so any attack launched from the Ukraine border can be responded to very quickly by a nuclear strike on Brussels and the HATO headquarters.

invoking the article 5, bringing US, UK & French nukes above Russian heads. Better take that ground like the USSR did with S. Finland, E. Poland & W. Ukraine in 1938-9 which bought them a few weeks in 1941 to organize the defense of Leningrad & Moscow.

Does it matter... I wouldn't trust the Orcs if they reopened the water flow.... I would be checking it for poison and diseases and other dirty tricks so there really is no alternative to solving the problem themselves.

that water would be treated anyway; Russia won't take all of Ukraine at once & the Dnieper is a long river.

There is agriculture there and tourism... such industries make water supply pretty much a priority and worth spending money on.

Why ration water, spend extra $Ms if they can have it for free after taking the land around the river?

It is a Ukrainian land of people turned against Russia, and there is plenty of arable land in Russia that could do with investment and development... let America and the EU fix what they broke.

they r not going to turn their back on 8M of ethnic Russians & other Russian speakers & the best arable land & climate there. don't imagine u know how they think.

Try to help them and they are as likely to lash out and attack Russia... just leave them to it.

with Russia's help, the Galicians can all go back to their original homeland; the rest will be happy to stop speaking an imposed dialect & be left alone.

Perhaps people don't want to leave...

then they'll have to suck it in. It the same in any other big country with ethnic/racial minorities.

I am sure Kiev would come up with an 80% tax on any earnings earned in Russia sent back to the Ukraine to punish those Russian speaking traitors to the Ukraine...

no, the liberated Novorossians out of work would go elswhere to earning & send $ back.

..they don't have the C4IR to use them before getting obliterated first.

then NATO will provide the C4IR to them.  

Their value would be their scrap metal value and two or three An-178s would be museum pieces as they are designed to have Ukrainian parts, not Russian ones, so nothing would be compatible with anything the Russians have...

I'm sure many tanks & BMPs there could be repaired & used/sold, but the main thing isn't their value to Russia, but to deny the Ukr. mil. access to them.
According to NATO standards: how the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Why does Putin need a war in Ukraine and what does Zelensky's "matchmakers" have to do with it

What is happening in Donbass: will there be a big war, does Putin need it and how the West will support Ukraine

Nikolai Starikov: aggravation in Donbass - when will the war start?

Illarionov told Gordon when and where Russia will attack Ukraine

Article five does not apply to protect a HATO member that attacks another country first.

Get over it. They don't want it.
It is a broken country, it has no value to anyone.

..they would have a shit fit over Russia seizing land by force from people who don't necessarily want to be part of the Russian Federation.

Putin has said he will stop Kiev forces from murdering them, but he has made no promises about allowing anyone to join the Russian Federation.

Would be easier to kill Ukrainian soldiers in armoured vehicles than have to chase them down and kill them individually.

From more recent reports I think the chance of war has diminished...

HATO having forces in the Ukraine would not effect Russian safety or defence in the slightest... it would just warrant a large increase in tactical nuclear weapons...

And until people in Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and so on finally say enough is enough, define their enemy, and that that enemy sits in Kiev - their long-term prospects will continue to deteriorate.

The US and HATO is not backing Kiev up, so I rather suspect there will be no war...

Tsavo Lion wrote:
not after NATO HQ is vaporized!

Prussia was broken to; now it's Kaliningrad Region. The Russians can fix it.

many in S. Ossetia had RF passports before 2008; now 40K have them in rebel Donbass. Both r de-facto part Rrussia now.

why not save ammo & prevent them firing a single shot?

if true, it's calm before the storm.

a perceived threat= real threat in their minds. They would rather fight in Ukraine than in Russia itself. In ur part of the world, after the French started being active in the Indian Ocean, The Brits quickly moved to secure W. Australia. Otherwise, it would still be divided like New Guinea is into Indonesia & PNG or Hispaniola is into Haiti & Dominican Republic.

pretty soon they'll need to chose sides or leave.

if giving them training & $125M on arms isn't backing, I don't know what is.

Getting vaporized yourself afterwards kind of defeats the point

Prussia was broken to; now it's Kaliningrad Region. The Russians can fix it.

By replacing the population?

many in S. Ossetia had RF passports before 2008; now 40K have them in rebel Donbass. Both r de-facto part Rrussia now.

key-word is de-facto, they have nowhere else to go anyway. No-one's going to make them part of Russia formally.

why not save ammo & prevent them firing a single shot?

Then Russia will have to fire the first shot.

if giving them training & $125M on arms isn't backing, I don't know what is.

They're certainly better armed by now than they were 7 years ago, and can pose a serious threat to the self-proclaimed republics if Russian support isn't forthcoming.

Tsavo Lion wrote:that's why NATO will sit on the fence, like in Georgia & Syria.

yes, like they do partially in Crimea now.

formalities don't matter in hybrid wars & their aftermath.

the recent drone attack killed a Ukr. citizen in his kitchen & Russia can say that she'll be liberating them too from the Ukrainian Nazis, as they liberated Germans from Hitlerism in 1945.

they r becoming a lot more of a threat to the RF mil. as well in 7 around Ukraine.
Russia blocks the Kerch Strait for six months for warships

It became known about the arrival of the Turkish military in Donbass

franco wrote:Heard the Turks were there to help run the UAV's as apparently Ukes having issues.

flamming_python wrote:

franco wrote:Heard the Turks were there to help run the UAV's as apparently Ukes having issues.

I don't think they'd be in Mariupol for that, but further back

And reports have it that they don't look like the UAV operator type, but more like SF

Kaliningrad is fine and does not need to be fixed.

losing Ukraine forever would cost them a lot more in the long run,

That ship has sailed, Ukraine is gone.

The Russian capital being anywhere else would not make a lot of difference.
The US would not be safer in WWIII if their capital city was in Florida.

AFAIK South Ossetia has not and is not seeking to join the Russian Federation, and so far neither has any other part of the Ukraine except the Crimea.

They will be firing shots as you invade and try to deny them access to those armoured vehicles and resources. If you do not invade they have no reason to shoot.

Creepy Joe is proving to be a doddery old fool.
Calls Putin a murderer with no soul and then asks him to show good faith and stand down his forces and then imposes sanctions and kicks 10 Russian diplomats out of the US.

A threat that can be eliminated with a few missiles...

Saying "go on... you will be fine" is not the sort of backing they need or want.

Makes you wonder why all those little weak countries were in such a rush to sign up...

Russia has built up its forces on its border just in case Kiev do something stupid... which is the most likely cause of conflict in the area.

Why would you think that Russia will break up if the Ukraine does not?

If HATO invades Russia via Ukrainian territory don't think they wont hesitate to nuke HATO forces forming up on Ukrainian territory...

With all due respect, they need to be given a chance to say that... or to say no. I can understand the actions of Kiev over the last few years would influence their decision but you or I are or even Putin is in no position to say what it is for them.

To try to capture them would involve shooting... to not try to capture them would involve none.

He is an idiot... he imposes new sanctions for made up things he says Russia did and then says we shouldn't escalate things and we should cooperate and have stability...

The air defences over Russia are a little bit different than they were in the 1960s. The air defences over the Ukraine...

The evidence of the last 20 years shows the only bit of land they actually wanted back was the Crimea... and it is mostly Russian anyway.

If both sides wanted that, then why did the Duma building get shelled?

Putin has shown no Imperial instincts at all... in fact the opposite...

Probably because being Russian he has a better appreciation of what wars do.

Russia views Ukraine as a neighbour...

if the Ukraine joins the EU.. If Ukraine joins HATO..

Russia already has access to that sea via Crimea, but also plenty of its own territory there too.

There is no reason to believe the Ukraine will break up into little bits,

but even if it did what makes you think the people of the western ukraine will enjoy being tiny parts of other countries and be told to stop being ukrainian any more...

The Ukraine is barely doing that, and Russia is the foreign army in this case... they don't want Ukrainian food they grow their own now,..

and I doubt they want to talk to Ukrainian civilians...

..but most of the Ukraine is not interested in good relations with Russia.... they hate Russia and blame Russia for all their problems... let the EU and US fix their problems.