Venezuela crisis

Isos, you show once again your lack of knowledge on these topics.

Contracts are worth the paper they are written on. See Ukraine. They are going against majority of contracts signed and not paying debts back.

Russia and China already backs Maduro. They will provide limited support for now unless requests come in.

China and Russia too strong to fault circa 2019, only if they blunder, voted NO.

This whole thing stinks, and the reason why is that US and EU are proving to the rest of the world that elections, observers, etc all are useless because if the US doesn't like you, they will just state someone else is the president of said country.

Russia and China needs to make it very clear, with both military assets and businessmen that they will support venezuela, to really put it to EU and US.

Hannibal Barca wrote:China and Russia too strong to fault circa 2019, only if they blunder, voted NO.

If Maduro is overthrown China is going to lose quite a bit of money.

George1 wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:Well I am surprised nobody has started thread yet so here it is. 

what's people's view on the current situation and likely outcome? 

If USA is successful in installing it's assigned puppet what will this mean for Russia and China?

there is already a topic

https://www.russiadefence.net/t3852-venezuela-crisis

ok thanks I thought it would have been under the Latin America section or Venezuela section like syria iraq and Yemen crisis are. oops

Isos wrote:

Contracts are worth the paper they are written on. See Ukraine. They are going against majority of contracts signed and not paying debts back.

Debts stay as long as they are not paid. That's capitalism. If you don't pay them no one will trust you. You have some debts that are 50 years old and still exist. Russia few years ago cancelled a cuban debt that from the socuet times.

Ukrainian ones are still there. They don't want to pay but russian banks don't forget. If they want to make business with russia again they will have to pay them back.

yes and it's very unlikely that Ukraine will ever trade with Russia again. 

Just like any debt owed to Russia or China those two countries will effectively lose that money owed while the new us puppet in Venezuela spends their money in western markets = China and Russia screwed over and lose a key ally in the region and the west rubbing their hands reaping the rewards while securing a foothold in an oil rich country in the region.

America to Venezuela – “Your Money AND Your Life!”

Now, in the South American chessboard, regarding the Venezuelan crisis, we are seeing a direct confrontation between the four major poles of Eurasia – Russia, China, Iran, Turkey – against the US. And with another BRICS member, Brazil, siding against Russia and China.
In a multipolar world, we now have a huge test, because Brazil presides over the BRICS in 2019. ..
I hope we won’t have a confrontation like Vietnam in our region. But when President Trump says that all options are on the table, he’s obviously accepting a military solution. This is very dangerous. I see a very sound Brazilian position coming from General Mourao [the Brazilian vice-president]. And yet the Foreign Ministry says Brazil will support politically and economically a government that does not exist – so that already means intervention.
http://www.atimes.com/article/insights-on-the-iran-deal-brics-and-handling-a-crisis-in-venezuela/?utm_source=The+Daily+Report&utm_campaign=bacf58a0c7-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_28_02_27&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f8bca137f-bacf58a0c7-31607385

Right turn in Latin America: “Next will be destabilization in Cuba”
https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2561193.html

https://www.democracynow.org/2019/1/25/historian_venezuela_is_staging_ground_for

Russia & China could try to destabilize Brazil by supporting separatism in the South of it.


https://brazilian.report/power/2018/01/10/southern-separatism-brazil-joke/

Vladimir79 wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:China and Russia too strong to fault circa 2019, only if they blunder, voted NO.

If Maduro is overthrown China is going to lose quite a bit of money.  

And you are on the money here, pun definitely intended:





How Much Money Will Russia Lose in Venezuela?

Let's put it this way: a lot less than large, politically-connected investment banks and funds in the US

https://russia-insider.com/en/how-much-money-will-russia-lose-venezuela/ri26065

https://ria.ru/20190125/1549888753.html

..................................................
.....Let’s start with the fact that Russia is not the main creditor of the Venezuelan economy and not even the second most important. If we take the Western (the most unflattering for Russia) estimates from the Bloomberg business information agency, it turns out that the leader in investments and loans is China with 70 billion dollars, but the honorable second place belongs to very influential and very respectable banks and investment funds, mainly from the US and the UK. According to the most conservative estimates quoted in the Reuters material, they lent to the governments of Chavez and Maduro, as well as the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA to the amount of about $50 billion.

Among Venezuela’s creditors there are such giants of the financial world as the American investment conglomerate BlackRock (the largest investment fund in the world, assets under management — 6,789 trillion dollars) and the most influential American Bank Goldman Sachs, which is known for its extraordinary opportunities of political lobbying in the US and the European Union. By the way, the Venezuelan opposition has repeatedly said that it will not pay the debts of the “anti-people regime” (especially the opposition does not want to pay the Goldman Sachs Bank, which literally saved Maduro in 2017). So, paradoxically, several very large and influential American financial companies are rooting for Maduro , because they are unlikely to want to run into a “write-off in the name of democracy” for at least $50 billion.

For comparison, the highest estimate of the total amount of loans and investments made by Russian structures in Venezuela is $17 billion, and this amount does not take into account some important aspects. First, Venezuela has long been paying off Russian and Chinese creditors with oil and shares in Venezuela’s oil fields — and this has been generating serious revenues for Venezuelan creditors for many years.

Secondly, Russian loans (it is worth noting that a similar scheme is used by the US, China, the UK and EU countries around the world) are often tied to the supply of Russian goods and services — that is, the money has already turned into salaries, for example, for domestic gunsmiths. So, to speak about losses of $17 billion is at least inaccurate and more than premature.

Unfortunately, in the Russian information field there are often sounding statements that the Venezuelan government is not to blame for anything, that economic difficulties are a myth or that economic difficulties (primarily hyperinflation) are 100% the result of American sanctions. That’s not so.

No American sanctions can explain the fact that the Venezuelan gold reserve has been in London for many years at the disposal of the Bank of England, which, according to the latest information, refuses to return it at all, and in the current crisis situation, this gold may well become the budget of the pro-American junta.

No sanctions can explain the fact that the key Venezuelan assets, bringing the country’s main foreign exchange revenue (for example, an oil refinery and a network of Citgo gas stations), are located in the USA and in all the years of confrontation with America, the official Caracas did not bother to sell them and buy something similar in any other — friendly to Venezuela — country.

No sanctions can explain an absolutely insane policy of monetary stimulation of the economy, which has led to the fact that inflation in Venezuela has long been measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of percent per annum, undermining the economy and the standard of living of the population so that even toilet paper becomes a luxury product. It is time for Caracas (as well as some Russian economists) to realize that it is impossible to solve economic and social problems by “printing and distributing money.”

According to the Central Bank of Venezuela for October 2018, which refers to Trading Economics, inflation in Venezuela was more than 1 300 000% — a level when the national currency turns into a wrapper, which can only be use to heat up a house during the next power outage. The fact that Venezuelans massively support Maduro despite the fact that prices increase by at least a few tens of percent every day for several years — a real miracle. Again, hyperinflation cannot be attributed to sanctions or falling oil prices. It is enough to look at the country on which American sanctions, American intervention and civil war hit much harder —  Syria. According to the CIA, at the peak of the war in 2016, the Assad administration managed to keep inflation at only 43.9%, and in 2017 it was brought down to 25.5%-that is, inflation is falling, and the economy is gradually returning to normal.

This example clearly shows the difference in financial discipline, and this comparison is clearly not in favor of Caracas.......
.......................................................

So it looks to me that China should definitely get on top of this.

Also, interesting part about Guido not being keen on paying back cash to his owners, interesting times ahead even if he gets on top.

Isos wrote:

Contracts are worth the paper they are written on. See Ukraine. They are going against majority of contracts signed and not paying debts back.

Debts stay as long as they are not paid. That's capitalism. If you don't pay them no one will trust you. You have some debts that are 50 years old and still exist. Russia few years ago cancelled a cuban debt that from the socuet times.

Ukrainian ones are still there. They don't want to pay but russian banks don't forget. If they want to make business with russia again they will have to pay them back.

Once again, nope. See Ukraine. They have not paid their Debts back to Russia yet still gets IMF loans and loans from the west, regardless how much of a drain it is.

Isos wrote:

Contracts are worth the paper they are written on. See Ukraine. They are going against majority of contracts signed and not paying debts back.

Debts stay as long as they are not paid. That's capitalism. If you don't pay them no one will trust you. You have some debts that are 50 years old and still exist. Russia few years ago cancelled a cuban debt that from the socuet times.

Ukrainian ones are still there. They don't want to pay but russian banks don't forget. If they want to make business with russia again they will have to pay them back.

That is correct unless the debts being abrogated are on the orders of Uncle Sam and are on the US's enemies. Then all is cool and good and well rewarded.

comparing the two Ukraine and Venezuela is completely wrong both are completely different kettles of fish so to speak. geographical location for start and one has large reserves of oil which usa and the west love and the other not so much oil and only real assets are all located in the east apart from odessa port. 

If usa gets its claws into Venezuela and wins this will be a bigger issue for China than Russia but still an issue none the less. Ok Ukraine is on Russian doorstep but the donbass is currently a buffer just now. It's very unlikely that Venezuela will have breakaway regions like Ukraine as they have no neighbours that can truly support them financially or military. I hope Russia and China have learnt from Libya when it chooses to act slowly or trust the west

The US has screwed up coup attempts in Venezuela in the past, though I suspect the cancer that Chaves died from was cooked up in a CIA lab somewhere as revenge.

The US invasion of Iraq technically cost Russia a lot in terms of investments but I suspect over time they will get more and more of them back...

The US can certainly take countries... but is not a good guest and often ends up being a very unwelcome guest...

Maduro should say that he will hold elections... as soon as Spain recognises their separatists rights and released their political prisoners, the UK releases a certain political prisoner in the Equadorian embassy, France holds elections to replace Micron right now, the US lets the native Americans take control of the country, the Australians allow Aboriginal rule, etc etc After all that is done he will hold elections for the west... otherwise he will follow the Venezuelan elections like he is supposed to...

No, Russia and China have not only some petty investments to loose if US gets to control Venezuela, it will be a major, maybe decisive blow for their future development due to the resources kept under the Venezuelan soil and the example they mean for other sovereign countries, especially in Latin America. With Saudi and Venezuelan oil at disposal US would be able to cash massive amounts of money and long term control the oil prices of which Russia and many of its allies are still very dependent. They would have a huge supply of gold with which they could back their currencies. They would in summary find a huge supply of wealth to refuel their almost exhausted war machine. On the contrary, a sovereign Venezuela could be a huge thorn in the side of US and a key ally for China and Russia. They need to get serious once and for all and help Venezuela win this ongoing war against the country, a single, developing country simply cannot make it alone if US strikes as hard as they can.

The best lands are in donbass.

Not true, the best agricultural lands r in central, Northern, & parts of Western Ukraine.
To comment on an earlier post: in Venezuela, I'm not sure they can grow enough food to be self sufficient in that tropical climate & on poor soils cleared from the jungle. Brazil has a similar problem & adds tons of fertilizers to do just that.

Chinese need to play some hand finally. They already stayed too much behind the stage in Syria.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-28/5000-troops-colombia-quell-venezuela-crisis-john-bolton-flashes-notepad-contents



Fun fact, this map still shows Crimea in Ukraine. They haven't lost hope

The Russians & Chinese may recruit as many, if not more, mercenaries/volunteers in Mexico, C. America, Cuba, Bolivia, & Colombia itself to help Maduro's army.
Mexican cartels have plenty of ex-military men ready to earn $ on the side.

LMFS wrote:No, Russia and China have not only some petty investments to loose if US gets to control Venezuela, it will be a major, maybe decisive blow for their future development due to the resources kept under the Venezuelan soil and the example they mean for other sovereign countries, especially in Latin America. With Saudi and Venezuelan oil at disposal US would be able to cash massive amounts of money and long term control the oil prices of which Russia and many of its allies are still very dependent. They would have a huge supply of gold with which they could back their currencies. They would in summary find a huge supply of wealth to refuel their almost exhausted war machine. On the contrary, a sovereign Venezuela could be a huge thorn in the side of US and a key ally for China and Russia. They need to get serious once and for all and help Venezuela win this ongoing war against the country, a single, developing country simply cannot make it alone if US strikes as hard as they can.

That's the question. Will they get serious enough. China and Russia can't hide from the U.S. Its allies can't hide from the U.S and its allies. It's a battle for supremacy. The U.S is in it to win it, not to "co-exist" as equals in well coordinated spheres of influences (like Russians dream in dispair) - whatever it takes short of a suicidal nuclear war they'll undertake....and even that is questionable. They'll make deals when they feel they need to retreat and rethink their strategies but only temporarily to recoup. The so called detente's. Mistakes in the making.

Put Venezuela under American control and they'll control the oil price and that commodity for decades to come. China's inroads will be stymied and at best stalemated in this segment. Russia will be sidelined and it will too be affected...for the less control the Americans have over OPEC the better it's for Russia to set terms and create realities in the market. Fresh supply of gold nicely in their pocket as well. Gas reserves...into their pocket.

They just went after the oil. Time for close coordination with China to consume and purchase that oil. Venezuela has enough riches to pay for the perceived costs of saving it now in a billion lifetimes. Which is why the U.S doesn't care if it has to burn the nation to the ground to get what it wants - or deny its competitors by doing just that. They simply can't have Venezuela cause they feel like it.... simple as that. If the U.S is firm in its resolve to take Venezuela down then so shall too Venezuela's allies in its defence. For the simple fact is that if their rivals are not as resolute as them, that already is a sign of weakness and defeat at the hands of the hegemon. For might makes right.

The U.S has shown they're not willing to respect anyone's backyard, that's why they will blatantly try to contain all great powers that pose a perceived challenge to them by creating chaos in their near abroad and they'll use all the means necessary to do so - no matter the illegality or the level of chaos. They're an empire and that's what empires do. On that basis its rivals should not under any circumstances concede any pieces of the puzzle or falter when confronted and challenged - as is the case of Venezuela.

Reminds me of what the U.S did to Cuba. Stopped sending oil to Cuban refineries - what did Castro do? Gave them the middle finger and got oil from the USSR. Stopped paying for sugarcane. Nationalized the corps. At every turn they got a resolute response. But they had backing and guarantees by the USSR. The duo must do the same today.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&u=http%3A%2F%2Fmisionverdad.com%2FLa-Guerra-en-Venezuela%2Fvenezuela-y-su-rol-geopolitico-energia-para-el-asedio

Put Venezuela under American control and they'll control the oil price for decades to come.

To mitigate this, Russia, Iran & China can take over Iraqi & Azeri oil & kick Western oil companies out, no need to exert themselves in Venezuela. The oil prices r already low & so far Russia didn't have a new revolution.

Tsavo Lion wrote:

Put Venezuela under American control and they'll control the oil price for decades to come.

To mitigate this, Russia, Iran & China can take over Iraqi & Azeri oil & kick Western oil companies out, no need to exert themselves in Venezuela. The oil prices r already low & so far Russia didn't have a new revolution.

Lol if they could do so they would have done it already. They're trying to ride Iran's cocktails, to put it amicably. And in Venezuela, Cuba's cocktails when they helped Hugo establish himself all those long years ago.

But even entertaining that scenario - the trade is advantage U.S by a landslide. Russia and China are already well established in Venezuela, not so much in Iraq. Venezuelan wealth far exceeds Iraqs, in potential and variety of enterprise. The geopolitical location as a springboard to the rest of Latin America is a value Iraq, a landlocked M.E country ravaged by civil war, terrorism, sectarianism, and invasion will never possess. It's simply not close.

In essence it's a joke. The U.S asserts itself wherever the hell it feels like it can get away with it. U.S strategist have more or less figured that they can challenge Russia and China today in Venezuela and that they can win that battle because the leadership of those countries are not willing to fight for it as they should. Or, at the very least - they're counting that posing the challenge will probe and reveal weaknesses that they can exploit to paralyze a valuable puzzle piece or render it useless in the Global Great Game.

Otherwise they wouldn't undertake such an elaborate, coordinated and definitive plan of aggression to boot out Russia and China from Venezuela.

At least Russia & China can make it a very expensive adventure for they US in Venezuela, turning it into another Vietnam.