Israeli–Palestinian conflict:

AD can't stop volleys of rockets. That's just an easy maths problem.

Now everyone around them will buy thousands of long range rockets. Serbia sells an interesting Sumadija MLRS with 280km range and 4 ready to launch big rockets with gps/INS navigation system for <50m CEP. Belorussian Polonezh is also in the same class and russia will also have a 200km rocket for its big MLRS.

Israel is really small and they have only 10 or so airbases. Take them out and they are fucked.

It would be interesting to see what would happen if Hezbollah opens another front for them...I don't believe they could win 2 front war....

Yugo90 wrote:It would be interesting to see what would happen if Hezbollah opens another front for them...I don't believe they could win 2 front war....

Apparently Hamas met with Hezbollah and the Iranians and asked them to stay out of direct action for now, as that would make it a state war and could potentially mobilize Israeli society again. But of course they can provide supplies and all the rest of it.

The main front is the home front right now, and it's a struggle of the Palestinian people.

Mahmoud Abbas meanwhile is effectively sidelined, the Fatah youth brigades have disavowed his leadership and begun arming themselves and mobilizing the Palestinian population in the West Bank.

The real 2nd front I think will be Jordan. The King will face more and more pressure every day to open the flood gates and allow Palestinians to move over the border from Jordan to the West Bank. When that happens the West Bank Palestinians will be reinforced with arms and manpower; at the moment they are hugely outmatched by the Israeli military sentries and the armed settlers.

There is action on the Lebanese border too, people trying to breach the border, and they're not even armed. But the crucial axis is the Jordanian one.

They already losing war after war ,there is no meaning to destroy random buildings , no victory if you still can't protect all of your cities .

As usual the US is spying for Usrael . Boeing RC135V spying on Hamas rockets launching sites .

Yugo90 wrote:It would be interesting to see what would happen if Hezbollah opens another front for them...I don't believe they could win 2 front war....

They would loose. Israel is too strong for them.

Their only option is long range attacks but they would quickly run out of ammo specially if Israeli attack their stocks with air force.

However Hezbollah has much better and more powerfull rockets and missiles. Hamas results are very low since they mainly use small rockets that are half the size of a grad rocket. Even a direct impact produce very light damage.

Isos wrote:

Yugo90 wrote:It would be interesting to see what would happen if Hezbollah opens another front for them...I don't believe they could win 2 front war....

They would loose. Israel is too strong for them.

Their only option is long range attacks but they would quickly run out of ammo specially if Israeli attack their stocks with air force.

However Hezbollah has much better and more powerfull rockets and missiles. Hamas results are very low since they mainly use small rockets that are half the size of a grad rocket. Even a direct impact produce very light damage.

The Hezzies have enough rockets to strike for months. A ground assault for Israel would be costly, while airstrikes are not going to be overly efficient, the Hezzies are well dug-in.

But it just won't achieve much that isn't being achieved already, while it could have certain negative implications, if it passes some moral authority back to the Israeli govt before its own people; at the moment Netanyahu has close to none excepting his pet extremists and ultranationalists.

South lebanon isn't huge. Launch are easy to spot and they will destroy launchers quickly just like they would track where they stock missiles and attack them.

Israeli air force is big and they have lot of drones.

Hezbollah will hurt them but they will be destroyed at the end.

Their rockets are good if you have an air force coming with you so that the rockets are intercepted by israeli AD and their AD run out of ammo, those who ho through destroy runways and then friendly air force destroy radars, HQ...

Alone hezbollah and hamas are not enough.

Isos wrote:South lebanon isn't huge. Launch are easy to spot and they will destroy launchers quickly just like they would track where they stock missiles and attack them.

Israeli air force is big and they have lot of drones.

Hezbollah will hurt them but they will be destroyed at the end.

Their rockets are good if you have an air force coming with you so that the rockets are intercepted by israeli AD and their AD run out of ammo, those who ho through destroy runways and then friendly air force destroy radars, HQ...

Alone hezbollah and hamas are not enough.

It depends on the definition of lose and win .

After 2006 war with Hezbollah we saw major upheaval in the Israeli military and political echelon, with the spate of high-ranking resignations including Chief of General Staff .

Hamas and Hezbollah main target is to hurt Usrael from inside by targeting airports ,power facilities ,bases and military camps.The israeli economy freezed during such shelling.

Usrael target is to completely destroy Hezollah and Hamas capabilities to make the Israelis safe but this never been achieved ,actually the resistance is more powerful than ever before ,they are using bigger rockets in bigger numbers than last wars ,they have drone too now .

Usrael is just bombing towers now in Gaza,one of them belongs to a press workers ,it has nothing to affect on Hamas capabilities which fired more rockets today on Tel-Aviv .

I'm talking about a military point of view. Israel is a developed country with a powerfull army and financed by the US.

Hezbollah is a guerilla with very limited weapons.

Isos wrote:I'm talking about a military point of view. Israel is a developed country with a powerfull army and financed by the US.

Hezbollah is a guerilla with very limited weapons.

Military point of view doesn't mean much with what Israel is facing now

Loss of moral confidence among the population related to the nullification of the moral authority of its leadership, chaos and disunity among its political factions and leaders, anarchy in the streets as each political player mobilizes their reserves (or new movements and leaders with them spring up organically), and internal security, military forces reacting with unreserved brutality and stupidity as desperation at not being able to match the speed of developments sets in

The same situation as what categorized the fall of the USSR, and there its military superiority didn't mean jack.

Isos wrote:Their only option is long range attacks but they would quickly run out of ammo specially if Israeli attack their stocks with air force.

They've been bombing Gaza for >3 days now and the rockets haven't stopped. Hiz could lob rockets/missiles at Israel for the next few months without stopping due to the huge amount of missiles stockpiled.

The only solution to block such attacks would be a land invasion and the last one didn't go down that well. They're not going to go for one in Gaza, unless the situation becomes completely unbearable.

In any case, Hiz is unlikely to get involved. The Palestinians themselves are doing completely fine. They are unlikely to stop their rocket attacks until an actual ceasefire is reached - though I'd be interested in what kind of demands the Palestinians are going to make for that to happen.

Edit: There's a huge barrage on Tel Aviv. Likely to continue throughout the night.

Remember that in most cases it was Israel that required the ceasefire. Last time they even ran out of Iron Dome missiles. The Palestinians on the other hand have missiles to spare.

They can destroy every single building in Gaza in few weeks if they wanted to.

They are just taking into account world opinion and can't bomb them that much.

Military speaking none of those guerillas around them can win a total war against them. That's a fact and totally normal since they are poorly armed.

Those rockets are pretty useless anyway. They barely destroy what they hit and mke no real difference.

The importance of that block with AP, BBC and Al Jazeera in it was on the roof. A tower with a lot of microwave dishes on it. EDIT just spotted at least one satellite dish up there as well.

The IAF have to cut all the communications out of Gaza they can from Internet to phones. Basically on the one hand they don't want the World to know what they are up to. On the other they are trying to stop data on rocket success or failure getting back to the targeting teams in Gaza forcing them to run blind. But the IAF has a bigger problem in the rest of Israel as both communities use the same systems.

The Arab-Jewish conflict began before Netanyahu’s birth and Gaza was blockaded since the Hamas coup there 2 years before he came back to power, but he’s done everything in the last 12 years to entrench the siege mentality on both sides and inflame sectarian hatreds.

There is a lack of real evidence showing Netanyahu somehow engineered these dual crises in Gaza and between Jews and Arabs in Israel but it’s a direct result of his policies. He inherited in 2009 the previous government policy’s of blockading Gaza but in 12 years did nothing to change it.

A week ago Israel was about to have a new government supported by right-wing, left-wing, centrist and Arab parties which was to concentrate on a “civilian agenda” and “reconciliation.” 5 days of internecine violence shattered that illusion. It’s still Netanyahu’s Israel.

As Gaza is turned into rubble and whole families killed, keep reminding yourself, because the media sure won't, that this latest 'clash' began just as Israel intensified the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians families from their homes in Jerusalem, which is against international law.

This has a long way to go yet. This is a catastrophe for Israel on so many fronts and will go down in history as Bibi’s Legacy.

Isos wrote:They can destroy every single building in Gaza in few weeks if they wanted to.

The moment they begin to kill Palestinian civilians en masse is the moment rockets and missiles from all over are going to start targeting them. In effect it's the same as them using nuclear weapons - sure, they can... but they're never going to.

Looks like Israel is already in the process of being sold

https://mobile.twitter.com/AOC/status/1393673695433043976

Apartheid states aren’t democracies.

Been getting retweeted by more and more American political figures as well

I'm guessing the US wants to preserve Israel somehow, but realizes that the current state of it is untenable. So probably some sort of Israel that's not longer a Jewish state formally, but still majority Jewish and kept that way, and maybe a Palestinian state based in the West Bank, with settlers expelled. And of course continuing to be a US ally and with normalized relations with the Gulf kingdoms.

Which isn't the worst option for the Palestinians. But really they have momentum on their side at the moment, and they need a solution for all their refugees in the states around Israel too.

The US realizes that the Palestinians are going to be co-opted by Iran and towards the fiercest resistance in the coming weeks. It wants to prevent this.

You are going way too fast here flamming-python

Zionism is the official ideology in Washington and elected officials get carefully screened for their political views and/or mallebility towards embracing them in the process (either by stick or carrot). This is done by foreign controlled outlets that have penetrated US bureaucracy from top to bottom (most notably AIPAC). They are the gatekeepers to US politics. Did you know that every new Congress(wo)man has to take a two week trip to Israel at the start of their term?

Some say they get tracked, rooms bugged and followed for that entire 14 day timespan. Digging up dirt and all that. This part is speculation though.

To her credit, Ilhan Omar was the first one to refuse to go on this trip. They have been working on her since. You can be black, female and muslim, but none of that matters unless you are not at least quiet on the Israel Project

Hence it is fair to say that the people who run the USA are firmly on board with the Israel Project - not for a minor part because they are Jewish/Diaspora Israeli themselves. For the sake of fairness: their other main power base are Evangelicals, whose wonky theological basis has been turned into hardcore pro-Zionism through Dispensationalism (the Scofield Bible)

As such I am willing to go one step further and label this glorified bartender from Queens controlled opposition. She miraculously, emphasis there, another major tell that this person is NOT grassroots change but a carefully crafted tool instead, rose through the ranks of Dem Party despite being as dumb as a rock and having no particular qualities.

I repeat, the horse faced Woman of Color is controlled opposition. Someone the peasants can look upto and that leads them away from any further radicalism in the Dem Party. She throws them some scraps on Twitter and they'll swallow it hook line sinker thinking they are part of 'the change'.

Yet what changes in the end? Nothing.

One thing that I will admit is that the US (controlled?) implosion will lead to a new status quo. The ripples that accompany this new power balance might lead to previously non-existent opportunities for the Palestinians. But let's please not get carried away by empty talk and gestures from puppets like AOC.

--

Another thing I'd like to say is that you are overestimating the support for the Palestinian cause in neighbouring countries. Arab unity is a pipe dream, no news there.

The Lebanese have little love for the Palestinians whom they see as trouble makers. The PLO started the Lebanese civil war and Ain al Hilweh is to this day a festering sore in Lebanon. Christians see the Palestinians as a Trojan horse

Same in Jordan where there is a very fragile equilibrium between the Bedouin Jordanians and the plentiful Palestinian West Bankers that moved there. Black September comes to mind

In Egypt large parts of the population (Sisi supporters) are not exactly positive on Ikhwani Hamas. The memories of Morsi are still fresh.

Syrians are probably tired of all the bombs and bullets. Gulf States are openly flirting with Israel.

Arab speaking countries in general are too hot headed to form strategic coalitions. They are quarrelsome and therefore get easily divided by plots, staged events and sectarian/ethnic strife that is incited from abroad.

This whole Gaza/WB ordeal will be dealt with in the next week. After that we'll see more stabbings and car rammings in the WB but that will be it. HAMAS will have to start re-arming and rebuilding the Gaza Strip from scratch again.

flamming_python wrote:Looks like Israel is already in the process of being sold

https://mobile.twitter.com/AOC/status/1393673695433043976
.......

Been saying it all along, the more non-whites take control of America the less influence descendants of old European "Drang nach Osten" crew will have and easier it will be for Russia and similar states

Currently US politics is being dominated by descendants of German, Polish, British, Scandinavian and similar nations but times are changing

elconquistador wrote:You are going way too fast here flamming-python

I'm going fast, but you fail to see the momentum of events

There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

Right now we're witnessing the later.

Israel is ultimately just another fake country like the Ukraine. They may use force to maintain their dominance a while longer, but I think it's over, the status quo has been thrashed, legions of people are moving, the political calculus has been upended and the contradictions of the system exposed in front of the world.
And once Israel loses their dominance, backs down - that's it, halas. The Palestinians, the refugees will return and it will no longer be Israel, the ideology will go into the bin, or it may turn out more bloody, I don't know what the finale will be and what will come after it.

As for the US, do not believe them to be so inflexible and rigid, and I'll say the same to PD. Israel, at least in it's current form, is becoming a liability to them, and they have plenty of other allies in the region whose stability they need to think about.

Lets do a simple sum based on IAF official figures. Launched 2900 minus 450 failed minus 1150 shot down equals 1300 rockets/missiles made it onto a target in Israel. Even those falling onto nothing in particular would have had a psychological impact on local Israelis.

Note my highlighted comment at the end. Maybe IAF saving Iron Dome for night use? Burning up stock af AAMs as well.

No mention anywhere of Iron Dome working as planned. Throwing everything at the problem but still they keep coming.

Israeli Air Force
@IAFsite
·
10h
As of 07:00, since the beginning of operation "Guardians of the Walls", approximately 2,900 rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israeli territory, of which approximately 450 failed launches fell in the Gaza Strip.

Iron Dome Air Defense soldiers have intercepted approximately 1,150 rockets.

Lebanese News and Updates
@LebUpdate
·
5h
According to the IDF, 3,000 rockets were launched from Gaza at Israel since start the fighting started 6 days ago.

In 2006, Hezbullah fired 4,000 rockets in 34 days.

In 2014, Gaza fired 4,564 rockets in 50 days.

Israel Conflict News
@IsraelGazaICN
·
11h
IDF spokesperson:

As of 07:00: As of 19:00 last night, about 120 launches have been identified from the Gaza Strip to Israeli territory. About 11 launches fell in the Gaza Strip.
Air defense fighters intercepted many dozens of rockets under interception policy

This is all about who runs out of missiles first

If Palestinians run dry first then it's over

If Israelis run out of interceptors (which can't be slapped together as fast as dumb rockets Palestinians use) then Israel will start taking massive damage and will be forced to go for land invasion to try and cut it off at the source (that or carpet bombing or both)

Question is do they have enough Iron Dome dakka stored away for rainy days?

Yuri Lyamin
@imp_navigator
·
45m
Big thanks to Fabian Hinz @fab_hinz
 for updated version of the infographics about the rocket arsenal of the military wings of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and HAMAS.




Plus this 400kg warhead short range monster mortar (photo from earlier use in Syria).





EDIT

Aurora Intel
@AuroraIntel
PIJ Saraya Al-Quds have released footage of their new Qassem rocket, named after #Iran’s #IRGC Commander Qassem Soleimani, appears to be a heavy IRAM.
Video at https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1393876282606342145

Supplies from Egypt to Gaza .

Tanks tansporting vehicle was hit by Hamas .




The Israelis are using Iron Dome on their corvettes to protect the offshore gas rig.