Moldova and Transnistria Situation Thread

Yes well looks like i was indeed wrong about you. Sorry, but as long as i at least still have romanian citizenship, i can "calumniate" the bad and despicable traits that i've seen and experienced first hand over there all i want. The pathetic "patriot" crap doesn't fly with me. Just ignore my posts or whatever. If you want to remain anchored in the derisory middle age mentality i mentioned, and not get your head out of the sand and even dare to look at the future and think how to make it a BETTER future, suit yourself. Oh and have no idea what forum you're talking about, i've never said that (the heck is Budjak anyway?).

Transdniestr, 5th May

Khatyn - Odessa, we mourn..




ODESSA PMR*


Eternal memory of the fallen of Odessa, Kramatorsk & Slavyansk






Eternal memory of the fallen of Odessa


* = Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic

George1 wrote:Transdniestria ready to repel any armed aggression


Transdniestria’s security forces said they had intelligence reports indicating that armed provocations on the border with Ukraine were being prepared. The sides also accused each other of shooting in the border-lying regions.

This is the area Kiev Junta is going to attack after Donbass has been finished of in total ruin. If not Tiraspol, then Gagauz/Comrat is going down, the hard way.

Regarding Gagauz, as far as I know, there are no Russian forces there. Or any other self-defense forces there. So if not Tiraspol is going down, then the city of Comrat for sure.

T055 wrote:

George1 wrote:Transdniestria ready to repel any armed aggression


Transdniestria’s security forces said they had intelligence reports indicating that armed provocations on the border with Ukraine were being prepared. The sides also accused each other of shooting in the border-lying regions.

This is the area Kiev Junta is going to attack after Donbass has been finished of in total ruin. If not Tiraspol, then Gagauz/Comrat is going down, the hard way.

Regarding Gagauz, as far as I know, there are no Russian forces there. Or any other self-defense forces there. So if not Tiraspol is going down, then the city of Comrat for sure.

Well, that´s a possibility, but in this case I think that the Kiev Junta will give Putin the motivation to act not only in Donbass, but in all the southeast region of Ukraine, including a naval strike in Odessa. And it would be very hard to explain an attack to a country like Moldova that is also a member of the Eastern Partnership. In this case, I think that Ukraine would only acelerate the desintegration of the country.

GustavoHF wrote:

T055 wrote:

George1 wrote:Transdniestria ready to repel any armed aggression


Transdniestria’s security forces said they had intelligence reports indicating that armed provocations on the border with Ukraine were being prepared. The sides also accused each other of shooting in the border-lying regions.

This is the area Kiev Junta is going to attack after Donbass has been finished of in total ruin. If not Tiraspol, then Gagauz/Comrat is going down, the hard way.

Regarding Gagauz, as far as I know, there are no Russian forces there. Or any other self-defense forces there. So if not Tiraspol is going down, then the city of Comrat for sure.

Well, that´s a possibility, but in this case I think that the Kiev Junta will give Putin the motivation to act not only in Donbass, but in all the southeast region of Ukraine, including a naval strike in Odessa. And it would be very hard to explain an attack to a country like Moldova that is also a member of the Eastern Partnership. In this case, I think that Ukraine would only acelerate the desintegration of the country.

  

I doubt Ukraine would even think of invading Transdniestria... For a couple of reasons;

A) Makes Kiev look even worse, which would screw up their relationship with the West. - It has already been shaken, but this could break it completely.

B) They are "struggling" in the east of Ukraine already, they probably couldn't wage two battles at one time.

C) If they invaded, chances are that Moldova would respond military, along with Transdniestria. Moldova has a decently military force, and could push Ukraine back into their own territory. Moldova is also somewhat an ally to Russia, so Russia themselves could send support.

Mike E wrote:

GustavoHF wrote:

T055 wrote:

George1 wrote:Transdniestria ready to repel any armed aggression


Transdniestria’s security forces said they had intelligence reports indicating that armed provocations on the border with Ukraine were being prepared. The sides also accused each other of shooting in the border-lying regions.

This is the area Kiev Junta is going to attack after Donbass has been finished of in total ruin. If not Tiraspol, then Gagauz/Comrat is going down, the hard way.

Regarding Gagauz, as far as I know, there are no Russian forces there. Or any other self-defense forces there. So if not Tiraspol is going down, then the city of Comrat for sure.

Well, that´s a possibility, but in this case I think that the Kiev Junta will give Putin the motivation to act not only in Donbass, but in all the southeast region of Ukraine, including a naval strike in Odessa. And it would be very hard to explain an attack to a country like Moldova that is also a member of the Eastern Partnership. In this case, I think that Ukraine would only acelerate the desintegration of the country.

  

I doubt Ukraine would even think of invading Transdniestria... For a couple of reasons;

A) Makes Kiev look even worse, which would screw up their relationship with the West. - It has already been shaken, but this could break it completely.

B) They are "struggling" in the east of Ukraine already, they probably couldn't wage two battles at one time.

C) If they invaded, chances are that Moldova would respond military, along with Transdniestria. Moldova has a decently military force, and could push Ukraine back into their own territory. Moldova is also somewhat an ally to Russia, so Russia themselves could send support.

Yes, I agree with you. And if the Kiev Junta decides to invade Transdniestria, we would have a situation where Russian troops were involved directly in the conflit. So Putin wouldn´t have another choice but to march into Ukraine.

Another thing to think about is what Ukraine would even gain from the land of Transnistria... There really isn't a whole lot there!

Moldova is certainly not an ally of Russia and if Kiev were to invade Pridnestrovie - it won't fight against Kiev, it will fight with it as they'd share the exact same allegiances and goals - getting rid of the pro-Russian client state between them.
Moldova has a pro-EU government right now (albeit a legitimate, elected one which seems to be a rare thing, compared to the amount of 'democractic' governments that were installed by undemocratic revolutions in the ex-USSR), and is very much following Brussels in terms of foreign policy - Merkel's visit there last year was a keystone event.

As has been mentioned by articles posted in in this very thread, Moldova is in fact stepping up its antagonism towards Russia, which it has so far tread very lightly around despite its pro-EU government. But the extent of this isn't known, it may be that a elephant is being blown out of a fly so to speak. But certainly - they are vocally unenthusiastic about the Russian peacekeeper contingent and have been for quite some time.
They are also worried about the extremely pro-Russian sentiments in Gagauzia and a few other places in the country, according to kalerab over @ mp.net in any case - they've passed a law against seperatism directly aimed at the Gagauzians and have stepped up their security services' activities in the area.

But I doubt they're going to do anything against Pridnestrovie; Russian peacekeepers and all that - no matter how of a good opportunity it may seem to try and take back Pridnestrovie now; there's no such thing as a 'good opportunity' when it comes to attacking Russian forces - it's pretty much guaranteed to end in pain. And given that the Moldovan government has been pretty rational and has learnt from the mistakes of Saaka, Yushchenko & co. when it comes to cutting-away from the Russian sphere of influence, I doubt they'd go for such a brash move.

Kiev won't either and not only because of the Russian peacekeepers. It will certainly blockade Pridnestrovie, but it can't spare the forces for any attack whatsoever; no matter how unimpressive the Pridnestrovian military might be - they are dug-in and defending, while Kiev with its less than impressive military capabilities would need to muster 3x the troops of the defenders to stand a decent chance of a successful operation. But every soldier it would send there is one less for the Donbass - where the threat is far more immediate and closer.

In light of all this, Pridnestrovie's call for mobilization yesterday comes as a bit of a mystery. Is it a display for domestic morale or for potential aggressors? Or what are they expecting exactly? Some action in Gagauzia? Or perhaps...

Yes, I agree with you. And if the Kiev Junta decides to invade Transdniestria, we would have a situation where Russian troops were involved directly in the conflit. So Putin wouldn´t have another choice but to march into Ukraine.

Yep this is a potential worry - that Kiev could actually be so suicidal as to seal the doom of its entire armed forces in return for showing Putin as the 'aggressor'. But that would be a stupid idea even by their standards, Western media weren't able to cover up the attack on Russian peacekeepers back in 2008 as the real reason for the outbreak of war, and they won't be able to do so now either.

flamming_python wrote:Moldova is certainly not an ally of Russia and if Kiev were to invade Pridnestrovie - it won't fight against Kiev, it will fight with it as they'd share the exact same allegiances and goals - getting rid of the pro-Russian client state between them.
Moldova has a pro-EU government right now (albeit a legitimate, elected one which seems to be a rare thing, compared to the amount of 'democractic' governments that were installed by undemocratic revolutions in the ex-USSR), and is very much following Brussels in terms of foreign policy - Merkel's visit there last year was a keystone event.
=

Actually the Pro-Eu govt. came in through a color revolution, one of the first pilots of the 'Twitter Revolution', and now with more and more evidence that American based social media sites are hubs for U.S. spying and subversion activity, the U.S. State Dept. even tried to create a Pro-US twitter/social media like site in Cuba to create subversion and stir up political tensions. Color Revolutions include everything from twisting of the media coverage of events, extensive outside funding for subversive 5th column NGO's, falsifying pre-election and post-election polls, to outright sanctions against the current govt. in power that the U.S. State Dept. wants deposed off. The real reason Moldova hasn't acted more hastily anti-Russian is that it's similar to the case of the political leadership of Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, Macedonia is that the their clearly puppets of the U.S. State Dept. but it's evident that would be political suicide to have a clear-cut anti-Russian mantra.

That is why I added in the "somewhat"... Moldova is a member of CIS and EAEC, so they aren't completely "anti-Russia". As such, I doubt they would side with Ukraine, but, who knows...

- There you have it!

George1 wrote:Moscow concerned over Romanian PM’s annexationist statements — Foreign Ministry

MOSCOW, September 16. /ITAR-TASS/. .Moscow regards as unacceptable Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta’s speculations about eventual annexation of Moldova, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Moscow “is concerned over Prime Minister Victor Ponta’s statements regarding the future of the republic of Moldova he made at a meeting with activists of the Social-Democratic Party in Alba-Iulia on September 14,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a commentary.

“As follows from frank calls by the Romanian presidential candidate for completing a ‘second great unification’ by 2018, certain political quarters in Bucharest are still hatching annexationist plans regarding a sovereign neighbouring country,” the commentary runs.

Russia regards as “irresponsible and unacceptable the external replications of such statements in the context of the ongoing election campaign in the republic of Moldova.”

“We expect that the authorities in Chisinau will assess them properly. We also hope that a corresponding reaction from Brussels and the European capitals will follow,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

For the love of God. A "second great unification" would also imply annexing territories which currently belong to Bulgaria and Ukraine and none of them felt threatened by that little fool' statements. No one plans to "annex" any territory presently belonging to the republic of Moldova; just to think of it, the pensions and wages for public employees are far lower in Moldova than in Romania, where would we find the money to finance our public expenditures' sudden increase? Does anyone think that EU or the US would be ready to give their taxpayers' hard-earned money to finance this endeavor? Besides, however that may sound, the republic of Moldova is today completely useless to Romania so, beyond statements issued for electoral purposes, nothing would vex us more than to find ourselves again with Bessarabia on our hands.

I don't believe Lavrov doesn't know all this so I can only wonder why did he stage this show. Is he planning a military intervention in Transnistria using as excuse these highly questionable statements?

I honestly don't get why anyone would even want to annex Transnistria in the first place... They don't have much land, no resources, a terrible economy that would be a pain to recover etc. The only "thing" there is a population of mostly Russians, Ukrainians, and of course Moldovans. The only that would use it strategy is Russia, and I doubt that they are even thinking about an annexation.

 - Russia wouldn't annex as Transnistria wants to join the Federation anyway.

Mike E wrote:I honestly don't get why anyone would even want to annex Transnistria in the first place... They don't have much land, no resources, a terrible economy that would be a pain to recover etc. The only "thing" there is a population of mostly Russians, Ukrainians, and of course Moldovans. The only that would use it strategy is Russia, and I doubt that they are even thinking about an annexation.

Perish the thought! Just imagine, to lose your only exit to the Danube and the Black Sea which it's said to have a western continental shelf rich in gas and perhaps oil and to get Transnistria in exchange. Nightmarish. That's why I say that Ukraine didn't protest much when it received a string of foreign territories from USSR but guess what, Russia has always oppressed and persecuted them. Really, now?

Mike E wrote:I honestly don't get why anyone would even want to annex Transnistria in the first place...

 - Russia wouldn't annex as Transnistria wants to join the Federation anyway.

Hell if I know. Rumor goes that Russia would intervene in Transnistria either to pressure the government of Kishinev into accepting the country's federalization or something like that or to discourage it from strengthening ties with the EU or to somehow threaten the Ukrainian region of Odessa. Transnistria could be nothing more than a pawn to be used either again Moldova or Ukraine and the trouble is that no one can guess Vladimir Putin's next move.

Intrigado wrote:

Mike E wrote:I honestly don't get why anyone would even want to annex Transnistria in the first place...

 - Russia wouldn't annex as Transnistria wants to join the Federation anyway.

Hell if I know. Rumor goes that Russia would intervene in Transnistria either to pressure the government of Kishinev into accepting the country's federalization or something like that or to discourage it from strengthening ties with the EU or to somehow threaten the Ukrainian region of Odessa. Transnistria could be nothing more than a pawn to be used either again Moldova or Ukraine and the trouble is that no one can guess Vladimir Putin's next move.

Like I mentioned earlier, Russia wouldn't annex Transnistria but rather have them join the Federation like they want.

While the party that gained the most support is pro Russian, the coalition of pro-EU parties garnered more total support. There's a good chunk of Moldavians/moldovites/whatever giving the EU the middle finger.

This country is going to have a rocky marriage with the EU.

Zivo wrote:While the party that gained the most support is pro Russian, the coalition of pro-EU parties garnered more total support. There's a good chunk of Moldavians/moldovites/whatever giving the EU the middle finger.

This country is going to have a rocky marriage with the EU.

Remember the good ol' days when political parties were defined as left or right leaning?

How long ago it was, now it's all about pro-russian, pro-european

etaepsilonk wrote:

Zivo wrote:While the party that gained the most support is pro Russian, the coalition of pro-EU parties garnered more total support. There's a good chunk of Moldavians/moldovites/whatever giving the EU the middle finger.

This country is going to have a rocky marriage with the EU.

Remember the good ol' days when political parties were defined as left or right leaning?

How long ago it was, now it's all about pro-russian, pro-european  

Welcome to the era of globalization.

Zivo wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:

Zivo wrote:While the party that gained the most support is pro Russian, the coalition of pro-EU parties garnered more total support. There's a good chunk of Moldavians/moldovites/whatever giving the EU the middle finger.

This country is going to have a rocky marriage with the EU.

Remember the good ol' days when political parties were defined as left or right leaning?

How long ago it was, now it's all about pro-russian, pro-european  

Welcome to the era of globalization.

"Why do you keep pestering me about those money bags I received from abroad? I only took them because, hey, globalization".