flamming_python Wed Aug 07, 2013 8:56 pm
TheArmenian wrote:The reasons for the massive size of the perspective new bomber are:
-Must carry large Hypersonic missiles (Zircon or whatever they will be called)
-Must carry large LO cruise missiles (Kh-101/102 and successor)
-Must carry large amounts of conventional cruise missiles (Kh-55 and successors) and/or guided bombs
-Future START treaties will limit number of assets (so, x-large size is a good idea)
-Must have super range and loitering capability
-"Mine is bigger than yours" is definitely a good propaganda tool in peacetime
Have to agree with TR1 on the putting all the eggs in one basket thing.
Of course making larger planes with larger payloads means that there will be fewer needed to construct and then keep operational and based somewhere. Which means that the program will be less expensive, which is probably as important a factor in the decision to go with such a design as anything else.
The problem lies in the fact that if only lets say 12-14 of these large planes are constructed, then it would be difficult justifying more than 1 dedicated base for them lets say - in fact the temptation would be to do just that. Which means that the main component of Russia's future nuclear strategic aviation could be taken out by one nuclear missile in a preemptive strike.
As each plane will be more expensive and fewer will be needed, it would also be harder to justify keeping production lines ready or dormant after the initial series run finished. What would happen if one of these large planes is lost to an accident in peacetime? For sure production would have to restart again to replace it - and this would turn out to be more expensive than if a greater number of smaller planes were built over a greater period of time, with some put into reserve in advance.
And speaking of accidents - even one such plane crashing into the sea with all its armament will strike a significant temporary blow to Russia's nuclear aviation readiness and capability.
And that's not even to speak about enemy action. It can't be discounted that the Americans will find a way to counter the PAK-DA with tactics and technology and stay one step ahead of them; in this case having a small amount of large planes will make them very vulnerable. Take out a few on the ground, a few in the air, and the remaining few will have their missiles intercepted far more easily.
I can see the temptation to think otherwise - but even stealth nuclear bombers aren't the same as nuclear submarines; whose size and low production numbers are actually justified by their demand for a large crew, far greater stealth (being far harder to track down in the depths of the ocean than any aircraft in the air) and immediate reaction time with weapons that can strike any point in the world from any other point in the world and without possibility of interception.
The PAK-DA just doesn't fit the same bill though.
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