Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


    Russian Economy General News: #1

    avatar
    Rpg type 7v

    Posts : 374
    Points : 228
    Join date : 2011-05-01

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Rpg type 7v on Tue Nov 26, 2013 12:29 pm

    Austin wrote:So if these projections are correct , Russian GDP by 2016 will grow to  86.837 trillion or $ 2.691 Trillion compared to todays $ 2 trillion
    no way in hell...geek 
    sepheronx
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7095
    Points : 7363
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 30
    Location : Canada

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:27 pm

    Rpg type 7v wrote:
    Austin wrote:So if these projections are correct , Russian GDP by 2016 will grow to  86.837 trillion or $ 2.691 Trillion compared to todays $ 2 trillion
    no way in hell...geek 
    Yes way in hell. All depends on how they do that though.

    @Austin
    GDP growth in practical terms, yes, but reality has a different view. USA gdp grew to 17T since they increased debt limit. They inflate themselves out of debt. UK does the same. Foreign investments is meaning how much of that money came back in profits. That will be accounted for during tax time.

    Only way it will grow truly is when their domestic investments actually start to shine. That wont be for a while longer. Titanium valley wont open till 2015/16 and only 3 of the technoparks are semi finished, rest 9 are not even started yet. Many other enterprises will not open their doors till next year and modernization of other facilities are going slow, so the money is coming from somewhere. Unless they are going to combat tax evasion, and the underground economy, as that will free up an aditional $90B which is a lot.
    avatar
    Austin

    Posts : 7361
    Points : 7758
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Wed Nov 27, 2013 7:38 am

    Yes US GDP is all Paper Money , Derivatives as they call and its inflated and eventually in next 3-4 years US economy will collapse.

    Coming back to Russian Oil Reserves I tried to do a rough calculation of the cost of Total Oil Reserves Russia Has

    from previous post

    From previous news Russian conventional Oil reserves are at 28 Billion Tons ( C1 category (proven reserves) totals 17.8 billion tons; category C2 (preliminary estimated reserves) is 10.2 billion tons ) http://rt.com/business/russia-oil-gas-reserves-putin-015/

    Bazhenov Formation upper limit is 22 billion Tons

    So Conventional Oil 28 Billion Tons + Shale Oil 22 Billion Tons = 50 Billion Tons = 357 Billion Barrel of Oil Equivalent ( bboe )

    Now 357 Billion Barrel Of Conventional Oil is what Russia has today.


    Oil cost around $100 Per Barrel Conservative figure ( Russian Oil is equivalent brent and its trading at $110 per barrel http://oil-price.net/ )

    So 1 Billion Barrel Of Oil cost $100 billion now multiply into 357 = $35700 Billion or around $35 Trillion USD of Conventional Oil Reserves.



    Viktor
    Viktor

    Posts : 5660
    Points : 6293
    Join date : 2009-08-25
    Age : 38
    Location : Croatia

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Viktor on Fri Nov 29, 2013 3:02 pm

    Not nice. 

    Russian Bank Debt to Reach 10 Trillion Rubles in 2013
    sepheronx
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7095
    Points : 7363
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 30
    Location : Canada

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Nov 30, 2013 8:28 am

    Viktor wrote:Not nice. 

    Russian Bank Debt to Reach 10 Trillion Rubles in 2013
    That is a combination of some banks going belly up due to corruption from the head honchos of the banks (stealing money and laundering) and banks who have a lot of outstanding debt from clients.  In other words, the banks are not in debt, but the companies whom provided investments/loans are owing that amount to the banks.  If a bank itself is in debt, then they usually close before it even happens.  These days, banks in Russia are churning out profits like mad (sberbank to be exact) and thus the debt is on the businesses/people, not on the banks.  Only way it will become a problem is if the businesses go bankrupt as they do not have much assets that can be liquidated, but personal debts like mortgages and what not, can be liquidated.  Banks are dirty business, but that is what makes America and UK survive.

    I asked this question to a friend whom is a banker. Made a lot more sense than what the media portrays.
    TR1
    TR1

    Posts : 5556
    Points : 5566
    Join date : 2011-12-06

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  TR1 on Sat Nov 30, 2013 9:45 am

    Russian banks are closing at a serious rate right now, there were a crapton of smaller ones and government wants to centralize several big ones.
    avatar
    Austin

    Posts : 7361
    Points : 7758
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Sat Nov 30, 2013 10:54 am

    Better to let these bad banks sink along with bad debts rather then bail out on public money and load the bad debt on public like they did in US and Europe.
    sepheronx
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7095
    Points : 7363
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 30
    Location : Canada

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Nov 30, 2013 11:33 am

    TR1 wrote:Russian banks are closing at a serious rate right now, there were a crapton of smaller ones and government wants to centralize several big ones.
    Like austin said, good. I have read plenty of articles about Russian banks laundering money and just outright stealing them. Gotta centralize and regulate them seeing as how other banks need the regulation or they run amok. In same news though, Sberbank is doing very well, same with Gazproms bank. Wonder why the ones that are regulated do well and the ones laundering money are not.

    Banking sector is very corrupt. What is screwing with American economy are the failed banks that got saved thanks to tax payers money.
    avatar
    Rpg type 7v

    Posts : 374
    Points : 228
    Join date : 2011-05-01

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Rpg type 7v on Sat Nov 30, 2013 1:36 pm

    Austin wrote:Better to let these bad banks sink along with bad debts rather then bail out on public money and load the bad debt on public like they did in US and Europe.
    the west actually bailed out the big banks. too big to fail was their policy.
    about sberbank it bought austian volksbank recently , now many banks in the balkans which didnt have russian banks at all but were occupied by western franchises because the puppet government wouldnt let them, now have russian presense.
    recently i transfered money by moscow bank and sberbank.
    AlfaT8
    AlfaT8

    Posts : 1806
    Points : 1801
    Join date : 2013-02-02

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  AlfaT8 on Mon Dec 02, 2013 2:57 am

    Hate to interrupt this intriguing discussion, but i feel like i just had to post this interesting article of George Friedman and his views or "Forecast for the 21st Century" and his very interesting thoughts on Russia's future. Wink 
    George Friedman on World War III
    avatar
    Firebird

    Posts : 1008
    Points : 1034
    Join date : 2011-10-14

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Firebird on Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:26 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:Hate to interrupt this intriguing discussion, but i feel like i just had to post this interesting article of George Friedman and his views or "Forecast for the 21st Century" and his very interesting thoughts on Russia's future. Wink 
    George Friedman on World War III
    Obviously feeling very insecure about his country. Has the credibility of a door to door window salesman with his so called "analysis". His lack of reasoning ability is nothing short of jawdropping. And he can't even get basic facts right.
    Viktor
    Viktor

    Posts : 5660
    Points : 6293
    Join date : 2009-08-25
    Age : 38
    Location : Croatia

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Viktor on Tue Dec 03, 2013 7:29 pm

    Russia Cuts 2014 Economic Growth Forecast, Sees More Stagnation

    2014 - 2.5% BDP growth
    2015 - 2.8% BDP growth

    Putin Sets Up New Kremlin Anti-Corruption Department
    avatar
    Rpg type 7v

    Posts : 374
    Points : 228
    Join date : 2011-05-01

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Rpg type 7v on Tue Dec 03, 2013 8:12 pm

    i dont understand ,agriculture is growing ,industry, exports ,infrastructure, some projects will take time to start making money but again construction industry should be growing because of it , the question then is ,what areas of the economy are in the RED then??
    Is russia starting to finance other countries with cheap loans ,like USSR did ?
    GarryB
    GarryB

    Posts : 21769
    Points : 22315
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  GarryB on Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:41 am

    Is russia starting to finance other countries with cheap loans ,like USSR did ?
    It is not subsidising other countries as such... it is basically giving friendly countries soft loans so they can afford Russian weapons... the way the US hands out aid so the receiving country can spend money on US weapons... so like the US Russia is merely giving money to its Military Industrial Complex.
    avatar
    Austin

    Posts : 7361
    Points : 7758
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Thu Dec 05, 2013 10:52 am

    The Finance Ministry has missed 10 trillion rubles by 2020
    http://ru.reuters.com/article/topNews/idRUMSE9B400120131205?sp=true

    MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian treasury at the current high oil prices before 2020 are missing about 10 trillion rubles of income to fund all budget commitments and promises of the authorities and of the risk reduction in revenues, the gap may be even more to be of long-term fiscal strategy Ministry of Finance.

    Pension obligations of the budget, the probable drop in revenues from exports, falling tax revenues and the reserve fund under the conditions of increasing social and military spending even more risk rasbalansirovat budget system. As prescription Finance Ministry proposes to cut costs and think about increasing taxes on the commodity sector. Otherwise, you must either raise other taxes or abolish fiscal rule and increase rapidly goszaimstvovany.

    In the period from 2017 to 2020-th - acting on the horizon or the promised government programs, but outside of the approved three-year budget - the Ministry of Finance found not secured obligations treasury income: 5.6 trillion rubles - approved and another 4.2 trillion - promised.

    Preparation of the strategy up to 2030, which the Finance Ministry this week brings the government, held in conditions of economic stagnation and persistent demands of President Vladimir Putin to find money for the fulfillment of all promises without loosening fiscal policy.

    WILL RAISE TAXES

    The basis of the budgetary strategy laid conservative scenario of long-term macroeconomic forecast of Economic Development, under which the average rate of growth of the Russian economy before 2030 will not exceed 2.5 percent. At the same time, says the Ministry of Finance, there are still risks that even such growth will not be achieved and the budget revenues, which are down to 2030 to 14.8 percent of GDP from 19.1 percent of GDP in 2013, will be even less than planned ministry.

    "The projected decline in revenue budget system, including the federal budget, determines appropriate to consider the question of raising the tax burden on the resource sector of the economy, in general, stable tax burden on other sectors of the economy, as well as ensuring the growth of non-tax revenues," - said in a strategy.

    Reduce the proportion of the working population carries its risks.


    "Forming conditions for continuous improvement of expenditure obligations of the Pension Fund and, as a consequence, growth needs for budgetary transfers from the federal budget, or increasing the load on the wage fund."

    Costs for a balanced budget of the Pension Fund in accordance with the strategy of growing up to 2.0 trillion rubles to 943 billion rubles in 2013, cutting a percentage of GDP to 1.0 from 1.4 percent.

    At the same time the Ministry of Finance has warned that if the measures aimed at ensuring the long-term balance of the pension system will not be accepted, the budgetary transfers to balance the budget, the FIU may increase to 3 percent of GDP per year.

    "Given the increase in long-term deficit-budget funds, the growth of demand in the financial support of the health system, as well as the socio-economic situation, may be considered to clarify the dimensions of social insurance contributions."

    INCREASE DEBT

    Strategy assumes that the budget deficit will be the expected period, and the deficit - covered mainly due to government bonds, which will be virtually the sole source of its funding. As a result, the national debt will rise to 18.2 percent of GDP by 2030 - the Ministry of Finance at a certain maximum bracket of 20 percent of GDP - from 12.0 percent of GDP in 2013.

    "When you save recorded in the forecast revenues from privatization and other sources of deficit financing public debt by 2030 may reach the threshold, even in the context of sustainable GDP growth and rising oil prices. In this case, may be subject to more stringent restrictions limit the scope of the federal budget the reduction of "design deficiency".

    Expenditure Ministry of Finance considered on the basis of "fiscal rule" that limits spending a certain oil price, and tried to lay all the approved commitments and orders of the president and the government.

    Given the transition in 2014 to the "program budget" Finance Ministry had based the basic version of government programs (government approved last year 39 state programs in two versions - basic / budget / and optimistic) and found that even in this case, the treasury is not enough 2017 -2020 years 5.6 trillion rubles.

    "In terms of the forecast period in order to balance the federal budget in 2017 ... need trimming costs 1.247 trillion rubles, in 2018 - 1.655 trillion rubles, in 2019 - 1.517 trillion rubles in 2020 and 1.142 trillion rubles," - said document.

    With the additional orders of the president and the government of the federal targeted programs, as well as costs associated with the reform of the pension system, "hole" may increase by another 4.2 trillion rubles in 2017-2020 years, says the Ministry of Finance.

    Furthermore, the authors warn the strategy of the downside risks of non-oil revenues - tax and customs payments, revenues from privatization. Thus, according to tax and customs services, the amount of revenue shortfalls could reach in 2014 338 billion rubles in 2015 and 2016 - 562 and 792 billion rubles, respectively, leads the Finance Ministry figures.

    At the same time the Ministry of Finance laid in strategy means selling "May decrees" Putin, who estimated at 5.3 trillion rubles by 2018.

    If the oil is cheaper

    The Ministry of Finance also made calculations of the three scenarios fall in oil prices in 2016: short-term decline to $ 60 per barrel to $ 80 per barrel, with a gradual recovery within two to three years, long-term decline to $ 80 per barrel.

    If oil prices fall obligations laid down in the strategy in case of continued fiscal rule and the rejection of unfunded costs will be financed by income, says Finance Ministry but at the expense of the Reserve Fund.

    In the case of long-term decline in oil prices the Reserve Fund will be exhausted in 2016 and the authorities in the second year would have to reduce budgeted expenses, the Finance Ministry warns.

    At the same time the Reserve Fund Russia may lose without falling oil prices.

    "Even if the oil price will be the same, we have big risks on income. Taxes, customs, privatization, plus can be warranties, including, at the Olympic venues. If we add up all this, it turns out that there is no reserve fund in 2016, "- said a source in the government.

    Last year, the Finance Ministry has softened fiscal rule amending the Budget Code, allow the use of the Reserve Fund in the event of loss of the planned revenues.

    (Editor Alex Kalmyikov)
    Viktor
    Viktor

    Posts : 5660
    Points : 6293
    Join date : 2009-08-25
    Age : 38
    Location : Croatia

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Viktor on Thu Dec 05, 2013 2:20 pm

    But if current oil prices and its expected rise is taken in the account than all of that article does not make any sense. Very Happy
    sepheronx
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7095
    Points : 7363
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 30
    Location : Canada

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Dec 05, 2013 3:40 pm

    A lot of ifs.

    They better start regulating those banks then. As well as pushing for more domestic investments ans modernization.

    I wonder though, how is this news trust worthy when they didnt even predict something that will happen a month or two later (slower gdp growth). But can determine what happens in 10 years?
    Viktor
    Viktor

    Posts : 5660
    Points : 6293
    Join date : 2009-08-25
    Age : 38
    Location : Croatia

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Viktor on Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:02 pm

    Seems good. 

    Putin Urges Adoption of Individual Bankruptcy Law
    Viktor
    Viktor

    Posts : 5660
    Points : 6293
    Join date : 2009-08-25
    Age : 38
    Location : Croatia

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Viktor on Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:32 pm

    sepheronx wrote:A lot of ifs.

    They better start regulating those banks then. As well as pushing for more domestic investments ans modernization.

    I wonder though, how is this news trust worthy when they didnt even predict something that will happen a month or two later (slower gdp growth). But can determine what happens in 10 years?
    Russia Faces Budget Gaps – Report - here is that article recentlly translated by RIA

    In case of "high oil prices" (which is the term in the article to describe current prices) perssst - worst case scenarion is :

    In the scenario set out in the document, the budget will be in deficit even if high oil prices persist, and will mainly be covered by government borrowing. As a result, government debt will rise to 18.2 percent of GDP by 2030 from this year’s 12 percent. The Finance Ministry-set limit is 20 percent.


    Which is LOL. Anyway I dont see any problem with Putin demanding more than it can be done by Russian officials. It only means they will have more sleepless nights over their job and the end result will be better than in case of realization of the more realistic plan put in place. No plan is ever 100% realized and in order to acchive 110% your goal must be 150%.
    avatar
    Austin

    Posts : 7361
    Points : 7758
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:41 am

    Russia Expects ‘Big Problems’ for Budget After 2016 – Minister

    MOSCOW, December 6 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s Finance Ministry predicted serious difficulties Friday for the budget in 2016 and 2017 as slowing economic growth means there will be insufficient funds available to honor spending commitments.

    Short term and long term growth forecasts for the Russian economy have been cut repeatedly this year, with officials warning Russia is entering a period of economic stagnation.

    “We see big problems in 2016 and 2017,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, Prime news agency reported.

    “Now is the time when we need to take decisions about the curtailment of previous commitments so that we can reach a balanced budget in the medium and long term,” he told reporters.

    Siluanov said that social spending pledges will be fulfilled, but that wage rises should be accompanied by an increase in efficiency, according to Prime.

    Officials expect the Russian economy to grow at just 1.4 percent this year, the lowest rate since the recession in 2009, and far short of the 7 percent annual growth during President Vladimir Putin’s first two presidential terms.

    Siluanov singled out defense spending and transfers to Russia’s Pension Fund, which runs a large deficit, as two of the biggest pressures on the budget.


    Putin made a series of lavish social spending pledges, the so-called May Decrees, the day after he was inaugurated for a third presidential term in 2012.

    A total of 2.1 trillion rubles ($63.7 billion) in the 2014-2016 budget was earmarked for the fulfilment of the May Decrees, Siluanov said in September. That budget was signed into law by Putin earlier this week.
    avatar
    Austin

    Posts : 7361
    Points : 7758
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:42 am

    What was promised in May Decree as part of Social Spending for which 2.1 trillion is being earmarked ?

    Do we have some facts and figures on it ?
    sepheronx
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7095
    Points : 7363
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 30
    Location : Canada

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 06, 2013 4:03 pm

    A couple of things come to mind, correct me if my views are wrong.

    Agriculture, industry and construction are increasing en mass. Industry output though is around the same as last year but wages are up, so this cuts into profit big time. Some regions are seeing industrial growth, but that is kinda slow growth, while many enterprises, as RPG said, will take time to come online and start production. Till then, its money drained into construction. Biggest issue so far is banking, as has been said by TR1 that many small banks are closing and they are centralizing big banks. I think there is a real lack of regulation in banking sector. Other issue is outright theft of property or finances to said organization. Skolkovo comes to mind. Russia is seeing industrial and technological growth that it has not seen since the Soviet era. What is stunting growth is lost values due to theft, while profits are down.

    When the SAP2020 comes to a close, then they may concentrate more on social development. At that point, the military will be around 70% modern and so they can reduce the budget so that they are purchasing enough equipment to replace the remaining obsolete gear in service at same time frame, as well as maintenance, training and cost of personnel, which would be a lot less.

    With less defence budget, they could allocate more money into the social development needed to curb the issues like corruption, as well as increasing standard of living.

    One thing comes off as odd is that comment about privatization. How is that costing money? It should be adding money to federal budget.  Makes little sense. As well, my understanding is that the tax code in Russia is quite old and a lot of loopholes. They, along with every country, needs to update, simplify and modernize their tax codes. A flat tax rate may not bring in massive amount of money at first, but it is desirable amongst major enterprises.

    Dont reduce defence spending too much, as it will hurt many enterprises still competitive in terms of high technologies. I also think that Roscosmos should be added to the aerospace enterprises as a whole, and state assets should be merged in terms of their capabilities, like MCST being merged with Elvees or Module so that can have a consolidated budget and it would be higher, thus more money can be allocated to specific projects.

    Oh and I forgot, biggest waste is the Olympics. Its costing a ton of money. We will see if it will pay off in the end.
    avatar
    Rpg type 7v

    Posts : 374
    Points : 228
    Join date : 2011-05-01

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Rpg type 7v on Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:14 pm

    olympics is 50 billion megafail ...
    it will never pay off...
    Russians cant build large infrastructure objects on time and on budget.
    sepheronx
    sepheronx

    Posts : 7095
    Points : 7363
    Join date : 2009-08-06
    Age : 30
    Location : Canada

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:21 pm

    Rpg type 7v wrote:olympics is 50 billion megafail ...
    it will never pay off...
    Russians cant build large infrastructure objects on time and on budget.
    I dont think anyone does. A small simple bridge here in Calgary Canada ran $10M over budget.

    The private buildings like skyscrapers and hotels in Russia is usually on time and budget. Government contracts and projects like olympics? Yeah, over budget and late.

    Although, investment in Sochi was needed big time. But should have just been opened as a tourist destination with private enterprises in building it up.
    avatar
    Austin

    Posts : 7361
    Points : 7758
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Austin on Sat Dec 07, 2013 9:03 am

    Russian budget may lose $51.5bn in 2014-2016
    http://rt.com/business/

    The Russian state budget may lose 1.7 trillion rubles ($51.5 billion) in 2014-2016, according to assessment of tax and customs authorities, Prime news agency reported. The budget may not receive 338 billion rubles ($10.2 billion) of revenues in 2014, 562 billion rubles in 2015 and 792 billion rubles in 2016, the project of budget strategy till 2030 said. There will be no additional revenues for the budget during the next three years, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.

    Sponsored content

    Russian Economy General News: #1 - Page 22 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #1

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:36 am