Abkhazia - S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

If they try to swap Abkhazia and South Osetia for NATO separatists will just expand their territory to preempt it

Georgia will not be joining NATO ever

I was planning to write a reply in the Ukrainian thread about the quoted post below a couple of days ago but than I realized that what I wrote it was much longer than what initially planned and most of it off topic, so I will post it here.

Karl Haushofer wrote:What if azeris attack armenia and Georgia attacks ossetia at the same time?

Concerning the request from the south Ossetians to hold referendum there to join Russia... Well even if they do it Russia is not obliged to take them, and I hope they don't.

The issue in Georgia is much different than the Ukrainian one.

First of all Georgia had an independent state identity and culture and literature since earlier than most (if not all) current European nations (all things that Ukraine did not have until very recently).


Second Ossetians and abkazians were guests in Georgian territories (like albanian kosovars in Serbia) and abkazians were never the majority in those lands (before the war in 1993 Georgians were still the majority in Abhkazia). They basically lost that war because the Georgian army did not initially defend the territory as there were parts of the army faithful to Zviad Gamsakhurdia (the first Georgian president ousted (in a coup?) by Shevardnadze (possibly with Eltsin help)) and other another part of the army taking orders from Shevardnadze, so they kept watching each other instead of solving the situation in Abkhazia (while many citizen were slaughtered and other were forced to flee).

Furthermore Gamsakurdia during the mess came back from abroad and "took control" of a part of Western georgia just south of abakzia, contributing in splitting the country in a moment in which they should have been united to stop the separatists.

Georgians had also their share of responsibility in the mess, as among some of Gamsakurdia followers (called sviadists, from his first name) there were also criminals and nationalists that used the civil unrest to do their worst against fellow countrymen (in Italy we had the same after the US invasion of southern Italy I'm WW2, when many criminals (and many people that until the day before were parts of the fascist paramilitary forces (blackshirts, i.e. camicie nere)  "joined" the partisans to be able to continue committing violence, robbery, rapes and murders under a new banner).


Some of these "followers" of Gamsakurdia (but not himself, while his words were probably misinterpreted) said that Georgia should be only for georgians, making the situation even worse.


Anyway in the war in 1993 some of the abkazians were responsible for war crimes, like torturing and killing ethnic Georgian civilians and prisoners (including also some horrible acts on the corpses).

Zhiuli Shartava, the Georgian head of the of the Abhkaz regional government, together with other politicians refused to flee Sokhumi when the city fell to the Abkhazian separatists and were taken prisoner by the militants. All of them were killed while prisoners and Shartava himself was tortured before being killed.

As we get outraged by some of the acts committed by Ukrainian Neonazis we should remember that in the past similar or worse acts were committed by groups at least partially supported by Russia.

There are now more Georgian refugees from Abkhazia (in the rest of Georgia, than ethnic abkazians currently in Abhkazia.  

Currently only in Gali and possibly a couple of other places there are still ethnic Georgians living in  Abhkazia (while the current abkazian authorities are trying to call them "georgianized abkazians" (bullshit, since they are ethnic Georgians, with most of them megrellians).

Until 2008 possibly the situation could still had a small chance of a future diplomatical solution, but Sakashvili (a US puppet), confident in NATO support, tried to use force to recover control of Tskhinvali region  (South Ossetia, called "Samachablo by the Georgians), injuring and killing also russian peacekeepers.

Russia used the occasion to show the world that it was not
a fallen nation and that it wanted security in its sphere of influence, basically going for a Kosovo scenario in these two regions of Georgia.

However even now the area controlled by the Ossetians continue to expand south with the rasor-wire fence being moved (I do not know if by Russian or Ossetian troops) every now and then to include new parts of land previously in Georgian control.

I understand that a Georgia in NATO it is a no go for Russia and that was a message to the west (especially after the speech from Putin at Munich conference in 2007).

Practically Georgia became a collaterally damage in a confrontation between Russia and the west. The rose revolution in 2003 when Shevardnadze was ousted and Sakashvili came into power was a western operation, but the seeds were all there. Shevardnadze was another corrupt and incompetent politician, and the Georgians were angry with Russia because of the support that Eltsin gave to the abkazians in the 1993 war. (I possibly believe that Eltsin did that under "suggestions" from his USA handlers)

Georgians see the behaviour of Russia during the 1993 war as a second betrayal of Russia (after the one from zaristic time, when imperial Russia annexed Russia even if previously in 1783 signed an agreement according to which it  would have preserved Georgian (the kingdom of kartli-kakhety, basically east Georgia (at that time Georgia was split in several small kingdoms and principates)) sovereignity in exchange of some russian control of Georgian foreign affairs.

However in that occasion Russia did not protect Georgia from a Persian invasion and actually annexed Georgia a few years later.

Unfortunately Russia again (in the 1990s) made a lot of promises to Georgia but it was either too weak or not really independent, so it broke the trust of its potential ally.

If I am not mistaken than during the 1993 war Eltsin was making pressures on Shevardnadze to join the CSTO (Collective security treaty organisation, an intergovernmental military alliance of post Soviet countries), but even with Georgia joining it it did not change anything on the status of the breakway regions and felt bitterly betrayed by Russia.

Again, the situation with the breakway regions of Georgia has nothing in common with the Ukraine situation but it is very similar to what happened to Serbia and Kosovo (and partially in Bosnia with the conflict between Bosnian Muslims and the Bosnian Serbs)..

Georgians wrongly thought (and many still think) that they need American help against Russia, and do not understand that they are just used.
Furthermore many believe that Ivanishvili (an oligarch and former prime minister, that currently is the puppeteer of the Georgian political leadership) is a Russian agent. Actually he is a sort of Georgian Kolomoiski, a rich bastard that has only his own interest in his mind (it is probably true that he owns some assets in Russia but he is definitely not pro Russia). Current Georgian government is definitely not pro Russia (while the pro Sakaashvili opposition says that) and it is made by inepts and corrupt people but at least is trying to keep a neutral position in the Ukrainian crisis (officially criticising Russia but not participating to sanctions to Russia or offering military help to Ukraine).

However the vision that many Georgians have is pro NATO and pro EU (mainly thanks to the propaganda and to the rage they have for their occupied territories). There is no independent television there offering an alternative approach and many Georgians do not speak other languages or do not have access to independent foreign media (the situation here reminds me of Italy...) So they also believe all the Ukrainian propaganda. Most Georgians do not really believe that Ukraine attacked the Donbass in 2014 or that there was persecution on the russophone population. Furthermore I even believe that many of them do not understand that at least half of the Ukrainian population are actually ethnic Russians (except the western ukrianians of course).

I know it is sad, but they also received a lot of bad "gifts" from Russia, and many decided that they did not want to have anything to do with Russia anymore and wrongly thought that asking NATO help would improve the situation (instead of actually creating a security problem for Russia that had to be resolved in a "hard" way).

Also it does not help the behaviour of some russian tourists in Georgia that behave like they own the place (a bit like some American tourists, but for Georgia it is worse since Russia is their neighbor).

Conclusion

I know that a solution that could be acceptable and actually working could only be for Georgia to be military neutral and stop military cooperation with NATO and kick out western NGOs and close the US Biolabs (I know for sure of one in Tbilisi, I do not know if there are more).

The problem is that Georgia would need something back, and they do not trust Russia anymore.

The only solution for Abkhazia and Samachablo (aka south Ossetia) would be to come back as parts of Georgia, possibly with special autonomy status (e.g. Georgian as official language and Russian and Abkhaz or Ossetian as minority language).
Possibly with Russia keeping the bases in Abkhazia as part of the agreement with Georgia.

And of course allow the "internally displaced persons" (e.g. Georgians that had to flee the breakway republics) to come back to their homes. In this case most places would still need to be rebuilt and I believe Russia could help in exchange of kicking out the Americans from Georgia.
Before that there should be also a proper investigation on the war crimes from the previous wars and perpetrators, if still alive, have to face justice.

It would be a nice gesture, however, from the Russian government, to admit the not exactly fully honest behaviour and promises they had with Georgia in the past (both in the 90s and in zarist time).


Note:

Georgian adherence to the 1783 treaty of Georgievsk prompted Persia's new ruler, Agha Mohammad Khan, who had sent several ultimatums, to invade.

Persia wanted to restablish  suzerainty over the region Russia did nothing to help the Georgians during the disastrous Battle of Krtsanisi in 1795, which left Tbilisi sacked and Georgia ravaged (including the west Georgian kingdom of Imereti, ruled by Erekle II's grandson, King Solomon II).
Then 5 years later Georgia was annexed by Russia.
Furthermore the autocephaly of Georgian orthodox church (which it was much older than the russian orthodox church) was terminated and many religions painting and icons were destroyed or repainted over in Russian style.

P.S.
I heard a Russian politician now saying that a sort of "neutral" position from Moldova and Georgia on the Russian Ukrainian crisis is due to Russian diplomacy. I highly doubt it. It is just because, while current Georgian government is mostly corrupt and incompetent, they understand that if Georgia had to open a second front from Russia there they would suffer much more and even risk to lose furthe territory.
By the way, it was horrible to hear in the last few days several Ukrainian politicians practically asking georgians to go to war against Russia so that also Georgian children and women wi die.

The Georgians keep spending huge amounts of money on military hardware which is way too much compared to what the separatists have. I think it is a matter of time until we see another conflict.