Abkhazia - S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

I would welcome them coming back to Georgia honestly.
There's nothing for them nor Russia to gain by them continuing to be this disputed territory that barely anyone in the world recognizes as a seperate state. They are basically a Russian dependency anyway, and Russia holds huge influence there.. but without the accountability and guarantee of economci development.
Annexing it would be an option, but Russia has no possible legitimate claims on it and such an action would poison relations with Georgia for a very long time, this isn't no Crimea, it has never been part of Russia, AFAIK it's always been part of Georgia to various degrees except for a couple decades in the Soviet Union before Stalin re-attached it back to Georgia.

If Russia plays it right and establishes a status as a mediator, it could secure guarantees on Georgian neutrality vis a vis NATO, negotiate it's reentrance to the CIS for starters, and the country's foreign policy vector can ultimately shift eastwards towards the Customs Union and CSTO in due course.

Unfortunately though I don't think the opposition is aiming for that. I don't think this whole crisis has much to do with Russia or Georgia really.

Agreed, though it is up to the Abkhaz to move in that direction, if they perceive it is in their interests to do so, then OK...

I think your take on the legitimization of the Crimean accession is off, Russia never used it's historic association as legal justification, even if such background info was trotted around as moral grounds, i.e. reason for people to like it. Crimea already was an autonomic Republic, i.e. it's own state within the state of Ukraine, and Ukraine had (basically unilaterally) insisted that it could not unilaterally secede, but that topic was ultimately placed under the jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court.  When the junta illegally came to power, they sacked the judges they didn't like and replaced them, meaning there never was and cannot be a legitimate ruling of the CC on the subject of seceding... Thus in absense of a ruling/assertion of sovereign territoriality, the internationally recognized right to self-determination applies, and as a sovereign republic, Crimea can request joining the Russian Federation, and Russia can accept that, just as if Madagascar so requested.  

Abkhazia had a similar status within Soviet Georgia, i.e. as an ASSR.  When Georgia separated from USSR,
they unilaterally tried to eliminate the ASSR status, and Abhazia refused... leading to the Republic of Abkhazia.
Claiming continuity of sovereign dominance in one narrow area while ignoring other technicalities is just a joke.
As far as S Ossetia, it's slightly different as it was an Autonomous Oblast, but I'm not sure if they may be in the right as well,
just because I know that Nagorno-Karabakh had identical status within Azeri SSR, but the law governing Azerbaijan's secession from USSR
also stated that NK was equally entitled to a referendum for seceding from Azeri SSR / remaining within USSR.  I am guessing,
but it seems likely that Georgia's secession which happened at the same time use the same law, so the same right applied to S. Ossetia...???

Of course, the people entranced by NATO media's denunciations of Russia over abstract "legal" grounds suddenly lose interest when actual legal technicalities are brought up... Who'd figure?

Not an expert in ABkhazia but i don't think ,it will be very popular ,for them to leave their independence and join
Georgia..after the 2 wars they had against Georgia..  But i could be wrong.?  Are there groups inside of Abkhzia that wants to join georgia?

How to play the cards in Abkhazia?

I think the best thing Russia could do , is try to talk with Georgia.. and try to start a process of friendship between both
between Georgia and Abjhazia ,that include changes in the Georgia Constitutions towards the Russian language. and that Russians
in Georgia have also representation in Georgia parliament. and to give equal rights to Russians inside Georgia.. And then Russia Propose to Georgia an inconditional Mutual development of Abkhazia. But also allow Georgians to have representation in Abkhazia parliament,.
To allow Georgia create Business inside Abkhazia that create Jobs.. in order words create a positive environment for Georgia
and Abkhazia for good relations and then later both Russia and Georgia can create in Abhazia a special State.. a special Zone ,where
Business that Georgia build in Abhazia will pay taxes to Georgia and Business created by Russia ,pay taxed to Russia.. etc.
With freedom of movement to work for Abkhazians to any side either Georgia or Russia..  I think something like that will not
only benefit significantly the quality of life of Abkhazia.. to have not one but 2 mother states that cares about them.. but also
could significantly improve the relations of Georgians and Russia..

Someone also mentioned the most striking and important Fact ,that always is ignored and not understood in the world.
That you cannot always have independence.. That you cannot for example have true independence ever if your a country like Armenia
That is surrounded by mortal Historical Enemies like Turkey or Azerbaijan ,with major territorial differences. For example Turkey stole a HUGE part of land from Armenia ,much bigger than their actual territory and they killed millions of armenians civilians in famous Genocide.
So a country like Armenia will always be dependent of Russia for its survival as nation..

This also Apply to Georgia.. Georgia thinks for some reason ,they will improve its economy and relations with Russia ,by having an alliance with an enemy of Russia that live 11,000 km away.. of by joining the EU ,totally ignoring its own society ,that have many supporters of Russia. So if Georgia had any brains.. they will seek to be like Findland.. a totally neutral Nation and refuse to join any Alliance with anyone. And instead seek to have good relations with everyone ,including their Abkhazia neighbors.

Moral of the story is.. that Independence is impossible if you are not a fully developed ,self sufficient Nation
and you are hostile to your Borders neighbors that happens to me Global economies.  So in this sense.. Not only georgia but Ukraine
new Government is doomed to fail on its economy and its plans to become fully Independent. If it seeks military Alliance with organizations that are Hostile To Russia.   people will argue that the Baltic States contradict that.. but for the only reason they are prosperous is because
their Business are being carried by the EU.. It receive special attention from Investors in the EU ,only for the sole reason that they are bordering Russia and close to its naval port.  had Russia being located in South America for example.. All those nations like Lithuane ,Estonia and Latvia will have been largely ignored by investors from the EU and moved to the borders of Russia in south america.
Ukraine also a bankrupt nation only interest the west have in them is purely military and logistical and for political advantage .

IF i was Russia i will have moved to Mexico , try to get strong relations with  Mexico ,offering help to counter the Drugs Cartel that
the US Gov sell weapons and have peaceful military drills with them near the USA border with a big alliance of South American countries armies.. regardless of how much US protest. That will teach them a lesson that if it is good for them to have military bases in Ukraine and baltic states ,it should be good for Russia to do the same at their borders.

it has never been part of Russia, AFAIK it's always been part of Georgia to various degrees except for a couple decades in the Soviet Union before Stalin re-attached it back to Georgia.

There were no such a thing as an independent Georgia in the modern borders except for a couple decades before the USSR reattached it  Should Russia reattach Georgia because of that fact?

I think Georgia still dream with this..



But it looks like ABkhazia and south Ossetia was never part of Georgia after all ,not even in the USSR.

watching at wiki.. it looks like Russia solution to the muslins overpopulation in their Caucasus zone
could potentially be countered by some kind of miracle ,have an alliance with Georgia and create a capitalistic mini soviet union
alliance like.. or more like a Republic union.. and integrate all christian countries from Iran border to Sochi. That is Armenia + georgia + Abkahazia.. it will be a real power Cristian orthodox Front... bordering the black sea all the way to Turkey and Iran borders.



It will be nice to see again one day to see the Return of the christian orthodox former soviet Republics with Russia and with Kazakhstan too
as Bonus. Even though the latest in not christian nation ,Those land will dramatically enhance Russia strategic capabilities.

flamming_python wrote:I would welcome them coming back to Georgia honestly.
There's nothing for them nor Russia to gain by them continuing to be this disputed territory that barely anyone in the world recognizes as a seperate state. They are basically a Russian dependency anyway, and Russia holds huge influence there.. but without the accountability and guarantee of economci development.
Annexing it would be an option, but Russia has no possible legitimate claims on it and such an action would poison relations with Georgia for a very long time, this isn't no Crimea, it has never been part of Russia, AFAIK it's always been part of Georgia to various degrees except for a couple decades in the Soviet Union before Stalin re-attached it back to Georgia.

If Russia plays it right and establishes a status as a mediator, it could secure guarantees on Georgian neutrality vis a vis NATO, negotiate it's reentrance to the CIS for starters, and the country's foreign policy vector can ultimately shift eastwards towards the Customs Union and CSTO in due course.

Unfortunately though I don't think the opposition is aiming for that. I don't think this whole crisis has much to do with Russia or Georgia really.

Sohumi is a nice place anyway
but agree, Georgia is the issue, and Abhazia is a bargaining chip..

Vann7 wrote:
I think Georgia still dream with this..

there are many history maps
and thats the kingdom of Mithridates of Pondus, the last Greek/Persian King of Pondus before the Romans


so .. dont bother too mutch with old maps..

Georgia have very nice lands.. Russia should try to get Georgia back LOL...   



Im sure Russia could love to have a huge tropical climate like territory .  And have a good use of those lands..
The best way Russia could recover all the caucasus soviet territories is becoming a China like economy.. and Become
the leader in space exploration again. and modernize (Sochi like) many of their cities.

People love winners , and Russia is doing many things right.  Imagine Russia starting to land in the moon and have the first human base there?  that will have the entire world logging everyday on internet just to see what the Cosmonaunts doing. lol
those things dramatically boost the attractiveness of any nation ,the projection of development ,security ,solid economy and technology on
a healthy environment with a government that leave you alone ,as long your not a criminal. Will be very attractive for young families that wants to raise their children in the most developed nation in the world.

Vann7 wrote:I think Georgia still dream with this..



But it looks like ABkhazia and south Ossetia was never part of Georgia after all ,not even in the USSR.

watching at wiki.. it looks like Russia solution to the muslins overpopulation in their Caucasus zone
could potentially be countered by some kind of miracle  ,have an alliance with Georgia and create a capitalistic mini soviet union
alliance like.. or more like a Republic union.. and integrate all christian countries from Iran border to Sochi. That is Armenia + georgia + Abkahazia.. it will be a real power Cristian orthodox Front... bordering the black sea all the way to Turkey and Iran borders.



It will be nice to see again one day to see the Return of the christian orthodox former soviet Republics with Russia and with Kazakhstan too
as Bonus. Even though the latest in not christian nation ,Those land will dramatically enhance Russia strategic capabilities.

That's a fictional map. Stop spreading disinformation.

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:
That's a fictional map. Stop spreading disinformation.

I got it from wikipedia.. lol

But it could be wrong they are many times wrong.

Vann7 wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:
That's a fictional map. Stop spreading disinformation.

I got it from wikipedia.. lol

But it could be wrong they are many times wrong.

I have never seen anything on Wikipedia in the areas of my competency that was not disinformation, misinformation, or run-of-the-mill. Even the run-of-the-mill stuff is full of errors and disinformation.

One of the reasons that I joined this forum is that I think it is against the forum rules to use Wikipedia as a reference.

Please see https://www.russiadefence.net/t269-rmf-rules-and-regulations

Wikipedia is a weapon of mass destruction.

Also I would like to suggest for it to be against the forum rules to use computer games like "Operation Flashpoint" as a "source of information". 

Well if we're allowed to post computer game pics as evidence of historical territories than I guess I might have something to contribute by way of one of my own amazingly historically accurate campaigns of Crusader Kings II, in this instance as the Kingdom of Georgia, where I slowly expanded against neighbouring principalities & sheikhdoms, getting even as far as the borders of Dagestan, and taking much of northern Armenia but soon loosing it again by way of the Byzantines swiping it in some altogether sneaky and despicable non-military manne. All the while I was facing a constant threat from Persia that eventually culminated in a major war, where I managed to avoid being crushed by a far superior army by an alliance with Ossetians and spending my money on mercenaries, as well as the Persians having to deal with plenty of problems of their own at that time, leading to a stalemate and quickly after - a negotiated peace.
Barely did I have any time to enjoy the fruits of my growing kingdom, meddle again in neighbour's politics and recover from an exhausting war; before the young Byzantine empress, or rather her regent, after the untimely death of the previous emperor, decided that it was time to start reigning in unruly and increasingly distant vassals - that being me of course; bringing the full brunt to bear of the Byzantine army and fleet onto my modest kingdom, where my forces, far outnumbered and though defending in the mountains - were nontheless summarily crushed and my territories occupied, plundered and my ambitious nation ripped to shreds.

So yeah there's a brief Georgian history lesson for all ya folks, circa 11th century A.D. or so.
Don't bother trying to confirm this through wiki sources though; we all know that anyone can edit anything there and that it's thus notoriously unrealiable.

I am starting to see articles in the past few weeks about Georgia possibly getting Membership Action Plan this September. Is it possible?

Reason why NATO is not very ,enthusiast to making Georgia and full NATO member is because.. another conflict could start between Russia and Georgia.. and they will be under a major disadvantage to defend Georgia in that place ,with IRAN ,Armenia as backup of Russia. So it will be bad for NATO image that one member is attacked and they do nothing.. So this is why they do not allow Georgia to become a full member.
Same will happen to Ukraine.. Full members have the rights to buy NATO equipment.. and it will not be good promotion for US sales,to see their Apaches Longbows falling from the sky in the dozens every week.. or worse to see a couple of F-35's that Georgia get ,being shot down
by Igla-S missiles or soviet air defences. It will damage significantly the sales US military industry .Same with NATO tanks ,not good for their sales to have them used in conflicts were they will need to face advanced Russian weapons.

Vann7 wrote:Reason why NATO is not very ,enthusiast to making Georgia and full NATO member is because.. another conflict could start between Russia and Georgia.. and they will be under a major disadvantage to defend Georgia in that place ,with IRAN ,Armenia as backup of Russia. So it will be bad for NATO image that one member is attacked and they do nothing.. So this is why they do not allow Georgia to become a full member.
Same will happen to Ukraine.. Full members have the rights to buy NATO equipment.. and it will not be good promotion for US sales,to see their Apaches Longbows falling from the sky in the dozens every week.. or worse to see a couple of F-35's that Georgia get ,being shot down
by Igla-S missiles or soviet air defences.  It will damage significantly the sales US military industry .Same with NATO tanks ,not good for their sales to have them used in conflicts were they will need to face advanced Russian weapons.

Yep wrecked M1 Abrams, Apaches, Bradly IFVs, etc.. would wreck over 20 years of American military hoo-haa, ten-hut! feel-good propaganda.
The fanboys would be devestated to know that made-in-the-US machinery is just like every other piece of technology - fully destroyable and defeatable.

Vann7 wrote:Reason why NATO is not very ,enthusiast to making Georgia and full NATO member is because.. another conflict could start between Russia and Georgia.. and they will be under a major disadvantage to defend Georgia in that place ,with IRAN ,Armenia as backup of Russia. So it will be bad for NATO image that one member is attacked and they do nothing.. So this is why they do not allow Georgia to become a full member.
Same will happen to Ukraine.. Full members have the rights to buy NATO equipment.. and it will not be good promotion for US sales,to see their Apaches Longbows falling from the sky in the dozens every week.. or worse to see a couple of F-35's that Georgia get ,being shot down
by Igla-S missiles or soviet air defences.  It will damage significantly the sales US military industry .Same with NATO tanks ,not good for their sales to have them used in conflicts were they will need to face advanced Russian weapons.

I understood that NATO don't formally guarantee the defence of the Baltic states, unlike other NATO members. Obviously because the enemy is likely to be Russia, defending RUssian citizens who might be being given a load of grief in the Baltics.

However, the BAltic states are now seeing a lot of American rhetoric and even troops appearing there.
Does anyone know the details of the NATO-Baltics agreement?

I assume/suspect that despite the press bullshit, NATO does NOT fully guarantee the Baltics.

GarryB wrote:

Well if we're allowed to post computer game pics...

You can post anything you like... just don't expect to be taken seriously if you rely on screenshots from Duke Nukem to prove you get on with the babes...

Items in Wiki often include references... check those before relying on them for credibility...

I am starting to see articles in the past few weeks about Georgia possibly getting Membership Action Plan this September. Is it possible?

According to NATOs own rules countries with border disputes can't join or start the process of joining... but if the US wants it to be then when did a rule stop them before?

I think if Georgia joins NATO then Russia should do 2 things: 1.) S. Ossetia and Abkhazia should be added to the Russian Federation as autonomous republics in retaliation, 2.) Russia should leave the stupid and pathetic INF treaty that the traitor and sellout Gorbachev signed, it's such a laughable treaty due in part because of the fact that Britain are France are significant nuclear powers with theater range nukes and also happen to be close NATO allies to the Pentagon and they are non-signatories of the INF treaty, let's not forget that French neo-con Nickolas Sarkozy even offered a thermonuclear weapons sharing agreement with Germany but Merkel uncharacteristically made a wise a decision (once in a life time event) where she didn't want to alienate Russian business ventures.

Was about time that this bastard is getting prosecuted openly.

Werewolf wrote:Was about time that this bastard is getting prosecuted openly.

We gonna prosecute Putin for Chechnya next?

TR1 wrote:

Werewolf wrote:Was about time that this bastard is getting prosecuted openly.

We gonna prosecute Putin for Chechnya next?

TR1, are you Saakashvilli lover? Putin didn't order an attack on georgian peacekeeper during Chechnia. And not a simgle time the Russian Army rolled into a city in Chechnia spraying bullets and Grad rockets without even a warning.

Asf wrote:

TR1 wrote:

Werewolf wrote:Was about time that this bastard is getting prosecuted openly.

We gonna prosecute Putin for Chechnya next?

TR1, are you Saakashvilli lover? Putin didn't order an attack on georgian peacekeeper during Chechnia. It's a military crime

Is there concrete proof he explicitly ordered that?

As for the general shelling of Tskinval, like I said, we gonna prosecute Putin? Far far worse things happened in Chechnya.

RIP to our guys in the barracks that was attacked, but to be quite frank people get away with worse.

And yes I do love Saaka. Not often does Russia get such a bafoon as an enemy. Makes our guys
look like strategic geniuses of Bismarks level.